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DOE OSTI2022

The outer stellar mass of massive galaxies: a simple tracer of halo mass with scatter comparable to richness and reduced projection effects

ABSTRACT Using the weak gravitational lensing data from the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC survey), we study the potential of different stellar mass estimates in tracing halo mass. We consider galaxies with log10(M⋆/M⊙) > 11.5 at 0.2 < z < 0.5 with carefully measured light profiles, and clusters from the redMaPPer and CAMIRA richness-based algorithms. We devise a method (the ‘Top-N test’) to evaluate the scatter in the halo mass–observable relation for different tracers, and to inter-compare halo mass proxies in four number density bins using stacked galaxy–galaxy lensing profiles. This test reveals three key findings. Stellar masses based on CModel photometry and aperture luminosity within R <30 kpc are poor proxies of halo mass. In contrast, the stellar mass of the outer envelope is an excellent halo mass proxy. The stellar mass within R = [50, 100] kpc, M⋆, [50, 100], has performance comparable to the state-of-the-art richness-based cluster finders at log10Mvir ≳ 14.0 and could be a better halo mass tracer at lower halo masses. Finally, using N-body simulations, we find that the lensing profiles of massive haloes selected by M⋆, [50, 100] are consistent with the expectation for a sample without projection or mis-centring effects. Richness-selected clusters, on the other hand, display an excess at R ∼ 1 Mpc in their lensing profiles, which may suggest a more significant impact from selection biases. These results suggest that M⋆-based tracers have distinct advantages in identifying massive haloes, which could open up new avenues for cluster cosmology. The codes and data used in this work can be found here:

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The oxidative pentose phosphate pathway in photosynthesis: a tale of two shunts

CO 2 release in the light (R L ) and its presumed source, oxidative pentose phosphate pathways, were found to be insensitive to CO 2 concentration. The oxidative pentose phosphate pathways form glucose 6-phosphate (G6P) shunts that bypass the nonoxidative pentose phosphate reactions of the Calvin–Benson cycle. Using adenosine diphosphate glucose and uridine diphosphate glucose as proxies for labeling of G6P in the stroma and cytosol respectively, it was found that only the cytosolic shunt was active. Uridine diphosphate glucose, a proxy for cytosolic G6P, and 6-phosphogluconate (6PG) were significantly less labeled than Calvin–Benson cycle intermediates in the light. But ADP glucose, a proxy for stromal G6P, is labeled to the same degree as Calvin–Benson cycle intermediates and much greater than 6PG. A metabolically inert pool of sedoheptulose bisphosphate can slowly equilibrate keeping the label in sedoheptulose lower than in other stromal metabolites. Finally, phosphorylation of fructose 6-phosphate (F6P) in the cytosol can allow some unlabeled carbon in cytosolic F6P to dilute label in phosphenolpyruvate. The results clearly show that there is oxidative pentose phosphate pathway activity in the cytosol that provides a shunt around the nonoxidative pentose phosphate pathway reactions of the Calvin–Benson cycle and is not strongly CO 2 -sensitive.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Continuous snow depth and temperature measurements from dense network of above-ground distributed temperature profiling systems from 2021-09-23 to 2024-08-23, Seward Peninsula, Alaska

The dataset contains temperature measurements from distributed temperature profiling (DTP) systems (Dafflon et al., 2022; Wielandt et al., 2022; Wang et al., 2024a; Fiolleau et al., 2024) deployed vertically above the ground surface at a large number of locations from 2021 to 2024. The research is designed to improve understanding of the local heterogeneity in snow depth and snow thermal insulation dynamics, as well as their interactions in a discontinuous permafrost region (Wang et al., 2025). The DTP systems were deployed at 96 locations in a watershed along the Nome-Teller road at mile marker 27 (T27) and at 54 locations on a hillslope along the Kougarok road at mile marker 64 (K64) in the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. The probe location information is stored in Probe_locations_T27.csv and Probe_locations_K64.csv. Temperature measurements were recorded at 15-minute intervals using high-precision digital sensors (accuracy: ±0.1°C, resolution: 0.0078°C). The temperature probes, either 1.4 m or 1.6 m long, contain sensors spaced every 5 cm or 10 cm along their length. The temperature data are stored in compressed files following the format: DTP_snow_air_temperature_(site)_(start)_(end).zip, where site is either T27 or K64, and start and end represent the time series period. Within each ZIP file, individual CSV files are named by probe ID and contain temperature records at different heights above the ground surface.This dataset also includes derived snow depth time series over three snow seasons, estimated from temperature measurements. Snow depth was estimated by identifying the consecutive sensor pair that exhibited the largest drop in high-frequency temperature fluctuations (detailed in the methods). These data are stored in: Snow_depths_flags_(site)_(start)_(end).csv, which includes snow depth time series and corresponding quality flags (defined in the methods) from different probes. Additionally, the dataset includes derived metrics and supporting measurements at selected locations over two snow seasons, contributing to the manuscript of Wang et al., 2025. These locations were chosen based on the availability of high-quality snow depth time series during both seasons. The additional data include: (1) Air temperature proxies measured from the top sensors on the pole when they were not buried by snow, stored in Air_temperature_proxies_(site)_(start)_(end).csv (2) Ground interface temperature, recorded at 3 cm above the ground, stored in Ground_interface_temperature_(site)_(start)_(end).csv (3) Site characteristics, including vegetation height, elevation, and the topographic position index (TPI) within a 50 m radius, stored in Selected_probe_locations_gps_vegheight_tpi_elevation_(site).csv. These metrics were derived from 1 m resolution summer LiDAR-based digital elevation models and digital surface models from Singhania et al., 2023, DOI:10.5440/1832016. Metadata files include data descriptions (_dd.csv) for tabular data. All included files are listed and described in xxxx_flmd.csv.This dataset is an updated version of a previous archive (Wang et al., 2024b, DOI: 10.15485/2475020), incorporating multiple seasons and improved snow depth estimation. Please note that due to large amount of information present in this dataset, many specificities associated with the acquisition of snow temperature, air temperature proxy and estimation of snow depth, and the future archiving of additional datasets on the soil temperature, thaw depth and soil characteristics at these locations, the author would welcome being contacted by people planning to use this dataset.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Practical CO2—WAG Field Operational Designs Using Hybrid Numerical-Machine-Learning Approaches

Machine-learning technologies have exhibited robust competences in solving many petroleum engineering problems. The accurate predictivity and fast computational speed enable a large volume of time-consuming engineering processes such as history-matching and field development optimization. The Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) project desires rigorous history-matching and multi-objective optimization processes, which fits the superiorities of the machine-learning approaches. Although the machine-learning proxy models are trained and validated before imposing to solve practical problems, the error margin would essentially introduce uncertainties to the results. In this paper, a hybrid numerical machine-learning workflow solving various optimization problems is presented. By coupling the expert machine-learning proxies with a global optimizer, the workflow successfully solves the history-matching and CO2 water alternative gas (WAG) design problem with low computational overheads. The history-matching work considers the heterogeneities of multiphase relative characteristics, and the CO2-WAG injection design takes multiple techno-economic objective functions into accounts. This work trained an expert response surface, a support vector machine, and a multi-layer neural network as proxy models to effectively learn the high-dimensional nonlinear data structure. The proposed workflow suggests revisiting the high-fidelity numerical simulator for validation purposes. The experience gained from this work would provide valuable guiding insights to similar CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) projects.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Redshift-space Clustering with Abundance Matching

Abstract We explore the degrees of freedom required to jointly fit projected and redshift-space clustering of galaxies selected in three bins of stellar mass from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Main Galaxy Sample (SDSS MGS) using a subhalo abundance matching (SHAM) model. We employ emulators for relevant clustering statistics in order to facilitate our analysis, leading to large speed gains with minimal loss of accuracy. We are able to simultaneously fit the projected and redshift-space clustering of the two most massive galaxy samples that we consider with just two free parameters: scatter in stellar mass at fixed SHAM proxy, and the dependence of the SHAM proxy on dark matter halo concentration. We find some evidence for models that include velocity bias, but including orphan galaxies improves our fits to the lower-mass samples significantly. We also model the clustering signals of specific star formation rate (sSFR) selected samples using conditional abundance matching (CAM). We obtain acceptable fits to projected and redshift-space clustering as a function of sSFR and stellar mass using two CAM variants, although the fits are worse than for stellar-mass-selected samples alone. By incorporating nonunity correlations between the CAM proxy and sSFR, we are able to resolve previously identified discrepancies between CAM predictions and SDSS observations of the environmental dependence of quenching for isolated central galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Gradual Decline of Star Formation since Cluster Infall: New Kinematic Insights into Environmental Quenching at 0.3 < z < 1.1

The environments where galaxies reside crucially shape their star formation histories. We investigate a large sample of 1626 cluster galaxies located within 105 galaxy clusters spanning a large range in redshift (0.26 < z < 1.13). The galaxy clusters are massive (M 500 ≳ 2 × 10 14 M ⊙ ) and uniformly selected from the SPT and ACT Sunyaev–Zel'dovich surveys. With spectra in hand for thousands of cluster members, we use the galaxies' position in projected phase space as a proxy for their infall times, which provides a more robust measurement of environment than quantities such as projected clustercentric radius. We find clear evidence for a gradual age increase of the galaxy's mean stellar populations (~0.71 ± 0.4 Gyr based on a 4000 Å break, D n 4000) with the time spent in the cluster environment. This environmental quenching effect is found regardless of galaxy luminosity (faint or bright) and redshift (low or high-z), although the exact stellar age of galaxies depends on both parameters at fixed environmental effects. Such a systematic increase of D n 4000 with infall proxy would suggest that galaxies that were accreted into hosts earlier were quenched earlier due to longer exposure to environmental effects such as ram pressure stripping and starvation. Compared to the typical dynamical timescales of 1–3 Gyr of cluster galaxies, the relatively small age increase (~0.71 ± 0.4 Gyr) found in our sample galaxies seems to suggest that a slow environmental process such as starvation is the dominant quenching pathway. Our results provide new insights into environmental quenching effects spanning a large range in cosmic time (~5.2 Gyr, z = 0.26–1.13) and demonstrate the power of using a kinematically derived infall time proxy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1983

Evidence linking coronal mass ejections with interplanetary magnetic clouds

Using proxy data for the occurrence of those mass ejections from the solar corona which are directed earthward, we investigate the association between the post-1970 interplanetary magnetic clouds of Klein and Burlaga and coronal mass ejections. The evidence linking magnetic clouds following shocks with coronal mass ejections is striking; six of nine clouds observed at Earth were preceded an appropriate time earlier by meter-wave type II radio bursts indicative of coronal shock waves and coronal mass ejections occurring near central meridian. During the selected periods when no clouds were detected near Earth, the only type II bursts reported were associated with solar activity near the limbs. Where the proxy solar data to be sought are not so clearly suggested, that is, for clouds preceding interaction regions and clouds within cold magnetic enhancements, the evidence linking the clouds and coronal mass ejections is not as clear; proxy data usually suggest many candidate mass-ejection events for each cloud. Overall, the data are consistent with and support the hypothesis suggested by Klein and Burlaga that magnetic clouds observed with spacecraft at 1 AU are manifestations of solar coronal mass ejection transients.

Wilson, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Are interplanetary magnetic clouds manifestations of coronal transients at 1 AU?

Using proxy data for the occurrence of those mass ejections from the solar corona which are directed earthward, the association between the post-1970 interplanetary magnetic clouds of Klein and Burlaga (1982) and coronal mass ejections is investigated. The evidence linking magnetic clouds following shocks with coronal mass ejections is striking; six of nine clouds observed at earth were preceded an appropriate time earlier by meter-wave type II radio bursts indicative of coronal shock waves and coronal mass ejections occurring near central meridian. During the selected control periods when no clouds were detected near earth, the only type II bursts reported were associated with solar activity near the limbs. Where the proxy solar data to be sought are not so clearly suggested, that is, for clouds preceding interaction regions and clouds within cold magnetic enhancements, the evidence linking the clouds and coronal mass ejections is not as clear; proxy data usually suggest many candidate mass-ejection events for each cloud.

Wilson, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Sources of variability in satellite-derived estimates of phytoplankton production in the eastern tropical Pacific

As a proxy for satellite CZCS observations and concurrent measurements of primary production rates, data from 138 stations occupied seasonally during 1967-1968 in the offshore eastern tropical Pacific were analyzed in terms of six temporal groups and our current regimes. Multiple linear regressions on column production Pt show that simulated satellite pigment is generally weakly correlated, but sometimes not correlated with Pt, and that incident irradiance, sea surface temperature, nitrate, transparency, and depths of mixed layer or nitracline assume little or no importance. After a proxy for the light-saturated chlorophyll-specific photosynthetic rate P(max) is added, the coefficient of determination ranges from 0.55 to 0.91 (median of 0.85) for the 10 cases. In stepwise multiple linear regressions the P(max) proxy is the best predictor for Pt.

Banse, Karl↗
NASA NTRS1991

Dynamo-based scheme for forecasting the magnitude of solar activity cycles

This paper presents a general framework for forecasting the smoothed maximum level of solar activity in a given cycle, based on a simple understanding of the solar dynamo. This type of forecasting requires knowledge of the sun's polar magnetic field strength at the preceding activity minimum. Because direct measurements of this quantity are difficult to obtain, the quality of a number of proxy indicators already used by other authors is evaluated, which are physically related to the sun's polar field. These indicators are subjected to a rigorous statistical analysis, and the analysis technique for each indicator is specified in detail in order to simplify and systematize reanalysis for future use. It is found that several of these proxies are in fact poorly correlated or uncorrelated with solar activity, and thus are of little value for predicting activity maxima. Also presented is a scheme in which the predictions of the individual proxies are combined via an appropriately weighted mean to produce a compound prediction. The scheme is then applied to the current cycle 22, and a maximum smoothed international sunspot number of 171 + or - 26 is estimated.

Layden, A. C.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Solar measurements from the Airglow-Solar Spectrometer Instrument (ASSI) on the San Marco 5 satellite

The analysis of the solar spectral irradiance from the Airglow-Solar Spectrometer Instrument (ASSI) on the San Marco 5 satellite is the focus for this research grant. A pre-print copy of the paper describing the calibrations of and results from the San Marco ASSI is attached to this report. The calibration of the ASSI included (1) transfer of photometric calibration from a rocket experiment and the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME), (2) use of the on-board radioactive calibration sources, (3) validation of the ASSI sensitivity over its field of view, and (4) determining the degradation of the spectrometers. We have determined that the absolute values for the solar irradiance needs adjustment in the current proxy models of the solar UV irradiance, and the amount of solar variability from the proxy models are in reasonable agreement with the ASSI measurements. This research grant also has supported the development of a new solar EUV irradiance proxy model. We expected that the magnetic flux is responsible for most of the heating, via Alfen waves, in the chromosphere, transition region, and corona. From examining time series of solar irradiance data and magnetic fields at different levels, we did indeed find that the chromospheric emissions correlate best with the large magnetic field levels.

Woods, Thomas N.↗
NASA NTRS2007

[Space Weather Impact on the Electricity Market]

Forbes & St. Cyr (2004, hereafter "FISC") have provided evidence that the electricity market can be impacted by space weather. Our analysis indicated that the estimated market impact for PJM was 3.7 % or approximately $500 million dollars over the 19 month sample period. Kappenman has taken exception to this estimate and contends that we have exaggerated the magnitude of the problem that space weather poses to PJM. There are four specific issues: (1) he claims that we have ignored relevant literature; (2) he asserts that Dst is not an appropriate proxy for GICs in PJM; (3) he charges that our findings are inconsistent with the impact of the 17 September 2000 storm; and (4) he alleges that our discussion of October 2003 storms is misleading. In our article, we have explained our methodology, multivariate regression analysis, with a particular focus on how it compares to correlation analysis. We have also explained the limitations of our analysis. We noted that "...While the Dstlprice relationship was found to be robust, the precise estimate should be treated with a relatively high degree of caution given that econometric modeling is not an exact science as well as the fact that the measure of space weather may be a poor proxy for GICs" (paragraph 96). We have also noted that additional research using local magnetometer data are needed (paragraph 97). We did not claim that that our findings for PJM are representative of the impact of space weather on other power grids. On the contrary, we noted that ... "Only analysis of other power grids will tell. " (paragraph 97). Kappenman inaccurately asserts that we have indicated that our findings . . . "imply much higher total costs are likely across the US and elsewhere in the world." He also inaccurately asserts that we have claimed that " . . . Dst is the most suited proxy for GIC in the PJM grid.. ." Moreover, he inaccurately refers to our analysis as a correlation study that uses Dst as quasi-binary indicator.

SaintCyr, O. Chris↗
NASA NTRS2009

Satellite Proving Ground for the GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM)

The key mission of the Satellite Proving Ground is to demonstrate new satellite observing data, products and capabilities in the operational environment to be ready on Day 1 to use the GOES-R suite of measurements. Algorithms, tools, and techniques must be tested, validated, and assessed by end users for their utility before they are finalized and incorporated into forecast operations. The GOES-R Proving Ground for the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) focuses on evaluating how the infusion of the new technology, algorithms, decision aids, or tailored products integrate with other available tools (weather radar and ground strike networks; nowcasting systems, mesoscale analysis, and numerical weather prediction models) in the hands of the forecaster responsible for issuing forecasts and warning products. Additionally, the testing concept fosters operation and development staff interactions which will improve training materials and support documentation development. Real-time proxy total lightning data from regional VHF lightning mapping arrays (LMA) in Northern Alabama, Central Oklahoma, Cape Canaveral Florida, and the Washington, DC Greater Metropolitan Area are the cornerstone for the GLM Proving Ground. The proxy data will simulate the 8 km Event, Group and Flash data that will be generated by GLM. Tailored products such as total flash density at 1-2 minute intervals will be provided for display in AWIPS-2 to select NWS forecast offices and national centers such as the Storm Prediction Center. Additional temporal / spatial combinations are being investigated in coordination with operational needs and case-study proxy data and prototype visualizations may also be generated from the NASA heritage Lightning Imaging Sensor and Optical Transient Detector data. End users will provide feedback on the utility of products in their operational environment, identify use cases and spatial/temporal scales of interest, and provide feedback to the developers for adjusted or new products.

Goodman, Steven J.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Forecasting Lightning Threat using Cloud-resolving Model Simulations

As numerical forecasts capable of resolving individual convective clouds become more common, it is of interest to see if quantitative forecasts of lightning flash rate density are possible, based on fields computed by the numerical model. Previous observational research has shown robust relationships between observed lightning flash rates and inferred updraft and large precipitation ice fields in the mixed phase regions of storms, and that these relationships might allow simulated fields to serve as proxies for lightning flash rate density. It is shown in this paper that two simple proxy fields do indeed provide reasonable and cost-effective bases for creating time-evolving maps of predicted lightning flash rate density, judging from a series of diverse simulation case study events in North Alabama for which Lightning Mapping Array data provide ground truth. One method is based on the product of upward velocity and the mixing ratio of precipitating ice hydrometeors, modeled as graupel only, in the mixed phase region of storms at the -15\dgc\ level, while the second method is based on the vertically integrated amounts of ice hydrometeors in each model grid column. Each method can be calibrated by comparing domainwide statistics of the peak values of simulated flash rate proxy fields against domainwide peak total lightning flash rate density data from observations. Tests show that the first method is able to capture much of the temporal variability of the lightning threat, while the second method does a better job of depicting the areal coverage of the threat. A blended solution is designed to retain most of the temporal sensitivity of the first method, while adding the improved spatial coverage of the second. Weather Research and Forecast Model simulations of selected North Alabama cases show that this model can distinguish the general character and intensity of most convective events, and that the proposed methods show promise as a means of generating quantitatively realistic fields of lightning threat. However, because models tend to have more difficulty in correctly predicting the instantaneous placement of storms, forecasts of the detailed location of the lightning threat based on single simulations can be in error. Although these model shortcomings presently limit the precision of lightning threat forecasts from individual runs of current generation models, the techniques proposed herein should continue to be applicable as newer and more accurate physically-based model versions, physical parameterizations, initialization techniques and ensembles of cloud-allowing forecasts become available.

McCaul, E. W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Results of the Simulation and Assimilation of Doppler Wind Lidar Observations in Preparation for European Space Agency's Aeolus Mission

With the launch of the European Space Agency's Aeolus Mission in 2013, direct spaceborne measurements of vertical wind profiles are imminent via Doppler wind lidar technology. Part of the preparedness for such missions is the development of the proper data assimilation methodology for handling such observations. Since no heritage measurements exist in space, the Joint Observing System Simulation Experiment (Joint OSSE) framework has been utilized to generate a realistic proxy dataset as a precursor to flight. These data are being used for the development of the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation system utilized at a number of centers through the United States including the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center and at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NOAA/NWS/NCEP) as an activity through the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation. An update of this ongoing effort will be presented, including the methodology of proxy data generation, the limitations of the proxy data, the handling of line-of-sight wind measurements within the GSI, and the impact on both analyses and forecasts with the addition of the new data type.

McCarty, Will↗
NASA NTRS2011

Reconstructing the Solar VUV Irradiance Over the Past 60 Years

Actual observations of the solar spectral irradiance are extremely limited on climate time scales; therefore, various empirical models use solar proxies to reconstruct the actual output of the Sun over long time scales. The Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) is an empirical model of the solar irradiance spectrum from 0.1 to 190 nm at 1 nm spectral resolution and on a I-minute time cadence. The goal of FISM is to provide accurate solar spectral irradiances over the vacuum ultraviolet (VUV: 0-200 nm) range as input for ionospheric and thermospheric. A brief overview of the proxies used in the FISM model will be given, and also discussed is how the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) EUV Variability Experiment (EVE) will contribute to improving FISM estimates and its accuracies. Also presented will be a discussion of other solar irradiance proxies and measurements, and their associated uncertainties, used for solar spectral reconstructions.

Chamberlin, Phillip C.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Early Transition and Use of VIIRS and GOES-R Products by NWS Forecast Offices

The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) satellite, part of the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS), and the ABI and GLM sensors scheduled for the GOES-R geostationary satellite will bring advanced observing capabilities to the operational weather community. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) project at Marshall Space Flight Center has been facilitating the use of real-time experimental and research satellite data by NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) for a number of years to demonstrate the planned capabilities of future sensors to address particular forecast challenges through improve situational awareness and short-term weather forecasts. For the NOAA GOES-R Proving Ground (PG) activity, SPoRT is developing and disseminating selected GOES-R proxy products to collaborating WFOs and National Centers. SPoRT developed the a pseudo-Geostationary Lightning Mapper product and helped in the transition of the Algorithm Working Group (AWG) Convective Initiation (CI) proxy product for the Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Spring Experiment,. Along with its partner WFOs, SPoRT is evaluating MODIS/GOES Hybrid products, which brings ABI-like data sets from existing NASA instrumentation in front of the forecaster for everyday use. The Hybrid uses near real-time MODIS imagery to demonstrate future ABI capabilities, while utilizing standard GOES imagery to provide the temporal frequency of geostationary imagery expected by operational forecasters. In addition, SPoRT is collaborating with the GOES-R hydrology AWG to transition a baseline proxy product for rainfall rate / quantitative precipitation estimate (QPE) to the OCONUS regions. For VIIRS, SPoRT is demonstrating multispectral observing capabilities and the utility of low-light channels not previously available on operational weather satellites to address a variety of weather forecast challenges. This presentation will discuss the results of transitioning these products to collaborating WFOs throughout the country.

Fuell, Kevin K.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Limit of Magnetic-Shear Energy in Solar Active Regions

It has been found previously, by measuring from active-region magnetograms a proxy of the free energy in the active region's magnetic field, (1) that there is a sharp upper limit to the free energy the field can hold that increases with the amount of magnetic field in the active region, the active region's magnetic flux content, and (2) that most active regions are near this limit when their field explodes in a coronal mass ejection/flare eruption. That is, explosive active regions are concentrated in a main-sequence path bordering the free-energy-limit line in (flux content, free-energy proxy) phase space. Here, we present evidence that specifies the underlying magnetic condition that gives rise to the free-energy limit and the accompanying main sequence of explosive active regions. Using a suitable free-energy proxy measured from vector magnetograms of 44 active regions, we find evidence that (1) in active regions at and near their free-energy limit, the ratio of magnetic-shear free energy to the non-free magnetic energy the potential field would have is of the order of one in the core field, the field rooted along the neutral line, and (2) this ratio is progressively less in active regions progressively farther below their free-energy limit. Evidently, most active regions in which this core-field energy ratio is much less than one cannot be triggered to explode; as this ratio approaches one, most active regions become capable of exploding; and when this ratio is one, most active regions are compelled to explode.

Moore, Ronald↗