SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “predictive state estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2024

A Cellular Automaton Simulation for Predicting Phase Evolution in Solid-State Reactions

New computational tools for solid-state synthesis recipe design are needed in order to accelerate the experimental realization of novel functional materials proposed by high-throughput materials discovery workflows. This work contributes a cellular automaton simulation framework for predicting the time-dependent evolution of intermediate and product phases during solid-state reactions as a function of precursor choice and amount, reaction atmosphere, and heating profile. The simulation captures the effects of reactant particle spatial distribution, particle melting, and reaction atmosphere. Reaction rates based on rudimentary kinetics are estimated using density functional theory data from the Materials Project and machine learning estimators for the melting point and the vibrational entropy component of the Gibbs free energy. The resulting simulation framework allows for the prediction of the likely outcome of a reaction recipe before any experiments are performed. We analyze five experimental solid-state recipes for BaTiO 3 , CaZrN 2 , and YMnO 3 found in the literature to illustrate the performance of the model in capturing reaction selectivity and reaction pathways as a function of temperature and precursor choice. This simulation framework offers an easier way to optimize existing recipes, aid in the identification of intermediates, and design effective recipes for yet unrealized inorganic solids in silico .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

High-throughput ab initio design of atomic interfaces using InterMatch

Forming a hetero-interface is a materials-design strategy that can access an astronomically large phase space. However, the immense phase space necessitates a high-throughput approach for an optimal interface design. Here we introduce a high-throughput computational framework, InterMatch, for efficiently predicting charge transfer, strain, and superlattice structure of an interface by leveraging the databases of individual bulk materials. Specifically, the algorithm reads in the lattice vectors, density of states, and the stiffness tensors for each material in their isolated form from the Materials Project. From these bulk properties, InterMatch estimates the interfacial properties. We benchmark InterMatch predictions for the charge transfer against experimental measurements and supercell density-functional theory calculations. We then use InterMatch to predict promising interface candidates for doping transition metal dichalcogenide MoSe 2 . Finally, we explain experimental observation of factor of 10 variation in the supercell periodicity within a few microns in graphene/α-RuCl 3 by exploring low energy superlattice structures as a function of twist angle using InterMatch. We anticipate our open-source InterMatch algorithm accelerating and guiding ever-growing interfacial design efforts. Moreover, the interface database resulting from the InterMatch searches presented in this paper can be readily accessed online.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

NASA NTRS2020

Prognostics for Systems Health Management - Model and Hybrid Based Approaches. Where are We Heading?

To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current state and health of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based system health predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditional. In case of next generation electric aircrafts, computing remaining flying time is safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current health state of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to predict the future state of the system, it is also required to possess knowledge of the current and future operational conditions and flight profiles for accurate estimation of end-of-discharge (EOD) for the batteries. Similar framework can be implemented to other complex systems and subsystems. Our research approach is to develop a system level health monitoring safety indicator which runs estimation and prediction algorithms to estimate remaining useful life predictions at system, subsystem swell as component levels. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics is discussed as a solution to the prediction problem and further for decision making. Data driven prognostics approaches have been equally used with good results in the past, where respective approaches have their own challenges to tackle. This limits their applicability to complex real-world domains: (a) high complexity or incompleteness of physics-based models and (b) limited representativeness of the training dataset for data-driven models. With the advent of internet of things for data collection and increased use of ML algorithms, hybrid approaches are the next avenue to reduce the challenges and achieve better results. An hybrid framework for fusing information from physics-based performance models along with deep learning algorithms for prognostics of complex safety critical systems is presented. In this framework, we use physics-based performance models to infer unobservable model parameters related to the system's components health solving a calibration problem.

Prognostics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Co-Simulation Meets AI: MCP-Driven Power System Analysis

GridGPT, a fine-tuned Generative AI model is designed for on-premise use in grid control rooms. This presentation will demonstrate how eGridGPT can seamlessly integrate with control room solutions to offer operators, engineers, and corporate users enhanced guidance and decision support. It is to show how this innovative AI solution can improve state estimation, boost variable energy forecasting, and optimize grid operations. By leveraging eGridGPT's unique features, audience will learn to unlock new levels of automation, predictive analytics, and reliability within their power systems, ultimately leading to reduced downtime and improved operational efficiency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2018

Impacts of Snow and Cloud Covers on Satellite-Derived PM 2.5 Levels

Satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) has been widely employed to evaluate ground fine particle (PM 2.5 ) levels, whereas snow/cloud covers often lead to a large proportion of non-random missing AOD. As a result, the fully covered and unbiased PM 2.5 estimates will be hard to generate. Among the current approaches to deal with the data gap issue, few have considered the cloud-AOD relationship and none of them have considered the snow-AOD relationship. This study examined the impacts of snow and cloud covers on AOD and PM 2.5 and made full-coverage PM 2.5 predictions with the consideration of these impacts. To estimate the missing AOD, daily gap-filling models with snow/cloud fractions and meteorological covariates were developed using the random forest algorithm. By using these models in New York State, a daily AOD data set with a 1-km resolution was generated with a complete coverage. The“out-of-bag” R 2 of the gap-filling models averaged 0.93 with an interquartile range from 0.90 to 0.95. Subsequently, a random forest-based PM 2.5 prediction model with the gap-filled AOD and covariates was built to predict fully covered PM 2.5 estimates. A ten-fold cross-validation for the prediction model showed a good performance with an R 2 of 0.82. In the gap-filling models, the snow fraction was of higher significance in the snow season compared with the rest of the year. The prediction models fitted with/without the snow fraction also suggested the discernible changes in PM 2.5 patterns, further confirming the significance of this parameter. Compared with the methods without considering snow and cloud covers, our PM 2.5 prediction surfaces showed more spatial details and reflected small-scale terrain-driven PM 2.5 patterns. The proposed methods can be generalized to the areas with extensive snow/cloud covers and large proportions of missing satellite AOD for predicting PM 2.5 levels with high resolutions and complete coverage.

AOD↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Systems Health Management and Decision Making

In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current state and health of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current and future operations. Given models of the current and future system behavior, the general approach of model-based prognostics can be employed as a solution to the prior stated prediction problem. In case of electric aircrafts, computing remaining flying time is safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current state and health of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to predict the future state of the system, it is also required to possess knowledge of the current and future operations of the vehicle. Discuss research approach to develop a system level health monitoring safety indicator which runs estimation and prediction algorithms to estimate remaining useful life predictions at system as well as subsystem levels. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can be employed as a solution to the prediction problem and further for decision making. In addition a digital twin concept is being implemented in the framework to demonstrate verification and validation of developed algorithms. Note - This presentation is for the short workshop conducted at the same conference and contains all previously approved and published information.

Systems Health Managent↗

NASA NTRS2000

Neural processing of gravito-inertial cues in humans. I. Influence of the semicircular canals following post-rotatory tilt

Sensory systems often provide ambiguous information. Integration of various sensory cues is required for the CNS to resolve sensory ambiguity and elicit appropriate responses. The vestibular system includes two types of sensors: the semicircular canals, which measure head rotation, and the otolith organs, which measure gravito-inertial force (GIF), the sum of gravitational force and inertial force due to linear acceleration. According to Einstein's equivalence principle, gravitational force is indistinguishable from inertial force due to linear acceleration. As a consequence, otolith measurements must be supplemented with other sensory information for the CNS to distinguish tilt from translation. The GIF resolution hypothesis states that the CNS estimates gravity and linear acceleration, so that the difference between estimates of gravity and linear acceleration matches the measured GIF. Both otolith and semicircular canal cues influence this estimation of gravity and linear acceleration. The GIF resolution hypothesis predicts that inaccurate estimates of both gravity and linear acceleration can occur due to central interactions of sensory cues. The existence of specific patterns of vestibuloocular reflexes (VOR) related to these inaccurate estimates can be used to test the GIF resolution hypothesis. To investigate this hypothesis, we measured eye movements during two different protocols. In one experiment, eight subjects were rotated at a constant velocity about an earth-vertical axis and then tilted 90 degrees in darkness to one of eight different evenly spaced final orientations, a so-called "dumping" protocol. Three speeds (200, 100, and 50 degrees /s) and two directions, clockwise (CW) and counterclockwise (CCW), of rotation were tested. In another experiment, four subjects were rotated at a constant velocity (200 degrees /s, CW and CCW) about an earth-horizontal axis and stopped in two different final orientations (nose-up and nose-down), a so-called "barbecue" protocol. The GIF resolution hypothesis predicts that post-rotatory horizontal VOR eye movements for both protocols should include an "induced" VOR component, compensatory to an interaural estimate of linear acceleration, even though no true interaural linear acceleration is present. The GIF resolution hypothesis accurately predicted VOR and induced VOR dependence on rotation direction, rotation speed, and head orientation. Alternative hypotheses stating that frequency segregation may discriminate tilt from translation or that the post-rotatory VOR time constant is dependent on head orientation with respect to the GIF direction did not predict the observed VOR for either experimental protocol.

Non-NASA Center↗

DOE OSTI2026

Prioritizing Uncertainties in Hydrogen Contribution to Risk in Post-Crash Outcomes for Rail

This report presents analysis from Sandia National Laboratories predicting contributions to risk associated with the use of hydrogen technology for rail. Event sequence diagrams are used to describe possible accident scenarios and progressions. Initiating event frequencies and branch event probabilities for each scenario are quantified with uncertainty using distributions fit to Federal Railroad Administration and U.S. Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration data on applicable accidents from 2000 to 2020. Uncertainty is propagated through the event sequence diagram to estimate the frequency and conditional probability of accident end states. The analysis identifies four scenarios with significant contributions to risk from hydrogen that are predicted to occur relatively frequently, which may inform priorities for reducing uncertainty. These scenarios are 1) overpressure events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and delayed ignition, 2) jet fire events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and immediate ignition, 3) jet fires resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and correct operation of the thermally-activated pressure relief device (TPRD) subsequent to the thermal insult, and 4) pressure burst resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and failure of the TPRD. Delayed and immediate hydrogen ignition probabilities are identified as being highly uncertain and potential candidates for reducing conservatism in the predicted frequencies for these two scenarios.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2021

Estimating Submicron Aerosol Mixing State at the Global Scale With Machine Learning and Earth System Modeling

Abstract This study integrates machine learning and particle‐resolved aerosol simulations to develop emulators that predict submicron aerosol mixing state indices from the Earth system model (ESM) simulations. The emulators predict aerosol mixing state using only quantities that are predicted by the ESM, including bulk aerosol species concentrations, which do not by themselves carry mixing state information. We used PartMC‐MOSAIC as the particle‐resolved model and NCAR's CESM as the ESM. We trained emulators for three different mixing state indices for submicron aerosol in terms of chemical species abundance ( χ a ), the mixing of optically absorbing and nonabsorbing species ( χ o ), and the mixing of hygroscopic and nonhygroscopic species ( χ h ). Our global mixing state maps show considerable spatial and seasonal variability unique to each mixing state index. Seasonal averages varied spatially between 13% and 94% for χ a , between 38% and 94% for χ o , and between 20% and 87% for χ h with global annual averages of 67%, 68%, and 56%, respectively. High values in one index can be consistent with low values in another index depending on the grouping of species and their relative abundance, meaning that each mixing state index captures different aspects of the population mixing state. Although a direct validation with observational data has not been possible yet, our results are consistent with mixing state index values derived from ambient observations. This work is a prototypical example of using machine learning emulators to add information to ESM simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Electromagnetic shower reconstruction and energy validation with Michel electrons and π 0 samples for the deep-learning-based analyses in MicroBooNE

This article presents the reconstruction of the electromagnetic activity from electrons and photons (showers) used in the MicroBooNE deep learning-based low energy electron search. The reconstruction algorithm uses a combination of traditional and deep learning-based techniques to estimate shower energies. We validate these predictions using two v μ -sourced data samples: charged/neutral current interactions with final state neutral pions and charged current interactions in which the muon stops and decays within the detector producing a Michel electron. Both the neutral pion sample and Michel electron sample demonstrate agreement between data and simulation. Finally, the absolute shower energy scale is shown to be consistent with the relevant physical constant of each sample: the neutral pion mass peak and the Michel energy cutoff.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Model associated with: "Thermodynamic control on the decomposition of organic matter across different electron acceptors"

This model data package is associated with the publication “Thermodynamic control on the decomposition of organic matter across different electron acceptors” submitted to Soil Biology and Biochemistry (Zheng et al., 2023; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soilbio.2024.109364).In this research, a thermodynamic modeling framework is built to flexibly incorporate both organic matter (OM) molecules and electron acceptors for estimating potential free energy release from various redox reactions and to further predict reaction rates based on Microbial Transition State Theory. The model package includes scripts for thermodynamic modeling and postprocessing. Input Fourier-transform ion cyclotron resonance (FTICR) data are from a previous experimental study (Boye et al., 2018), and model outputs are free energy predictions and stoichiometric coefficients associated with all possible redox reactions.This data package is associated with the project GitHub repository found at MM_bioenergetic_modeling.This data package contains four folders (Input_FTICR, Model, Output, and Output_processing), a file-level metadata (FLMD) csv, and a data dictionary (dd) csv. Please see Zheng_bioenergetic_modeling_flmd.csv for a list of all files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. The Zheng_bioenergetic_modeling_dd.csv file describes the csv column headers. The “Model” folder contains scripts to run energy balance calculations for each electron acceptor. The “Output” folder contains csv files with stoichiometric information from model simulations. And the "Output_processing" folder contains scripts for reaction rate calculations and to generate plots.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1975

Prediction of elemental creep

Cyclic and steady-state creep tests were performed to provide data which were used to develop predictive equations. These equations, describing creep as a function of stress, temperature, and time, were developed through the use of a least squares regression analyses computer program for both the steady-state and cyclic data sets. Comparison of the data from the two types of tests, revealed that there was no significant difference between the cyclic and steady-state creep strains for the L-605 sheet under the experimental conditions investigated (for the same total time at load). Attempts to develop a single linear equation describing the combined steady-state and cyclic creep data resulted in standard errors of estimates higher than obtained for the individual data sets. A proposed approach to predict elemental creep in metals uses the cyclic creep equation and a computer program which applies strain and time hardening theories of creep accumulation.

Davis, J. W.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Theoretical and Experimental Flow Cell Studies of a Hydrogen-Bromine Fuel Cell, Part 1

There is increasing interest in hydrogen-bromine fuel cells as both primary and regenerative energy storage systems. One promising design for a hydrogen-bromine fuel cell is a negative half cell having only a gas phase, which is separated by a cationic exchange membrane from a positive half cell having an aqueous electrolyte. The hydrogen gas and the aqueous bromide solution are stored external to the cell. In order to calculate the energy storage capacity and to predict and assess the performance of a single cell, the open circuit potential (OCV) must be estimated for different states of change, under various conditions. Theoretical expressions were derived to estimate the OCV of a hydrogen-bromine fuel cell. In these expressions temperature, hydrogen pressure, and bromine and hydrobromic acid concentrations were taken into consideration. Also included are the effects of the Nafion membrance separator and the various bromide complex species. Activity coefficients were taken into account in one of the expressions. The sensitivity of these parameters on the calculated OCV was studied.

Savinell, R. F.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Covariance Realism Is Not Enough

A great deal of effort has been put into improving the practice of space situational awareness such that covariance data associated with predicted close approaches is more “realistic.” However, “realistic” usually has meant “larger” and this presents a problem. In many cases, there exist multiple sources for predictive ephemerides, which may be fused to produce predictive states with smaller associated covariances. Ancillary to the fusion computation is the capability to assess consistency of the estimates. If actionable covariance information becomes available, interval estimates for the miss distance provide a more informative alternative to collision probability for risk assessment.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗

DOE OSTI2026

SENTRA: A Modular Computational Graph Framework for Critical Mineral and Materials Supply Chains: Part I: Network Construction Latent-Quantity Estimation, and Temporal Graph Forecasting

Global supply chains for critical minerals and materials are complex, evolving networks of countries, products, production stages, and trade relationships. Existing analytical approaches are limited by fragmented data and static network representations that do not capture the dynamic production dependencies linking raw materials, intermediate products, and final goods across multiple countries. Trade and production statistics provide only a partial view of domestic production, inventories, and material flows, making it difficult to identify indirect sourcing pathways, hidden dependencies, and embedded foreign exposures. This paper introduces the Supply Chain Exposure Network Tracking and Risk Assessment (SENTRA) framework, a modular graph-based computational framework for constructing, analyzing, and forecasting dynamic supply chain networks. As the first paper in a three-part methodological series, it establishes the computational foundation of SENTRA by constructing a temporal attributed multi-relational graph whose nodes represent product–country pairs and whose edges encode observed trade and within-country value-chain relationships. Statistical estimation and constrained optimization recover latent production, final demand, and product input dependency coefficients while enforcing economic accounting constraints. Graph-derived exposure measures quantify direct, transshipment, value-chain, and multi-hop supply chain dependencies independently of the forecasting model. A temporal graph forecasting architecture based on a relational graph neural network then forecasts the evolution of the graph under mass-balance constraints with distribution-free conformal uncertainty quantification. Validation on the global aluminum supply chain shows that the learned graph representations recover economically meaningful supply chain structure, accurately forecast out-of-sample trade relationships, and produce well-calibrated prediction intervals. Subsequent papers apply this computational foundation to exposure assessment, disruption analysis, and scenario-based policy analysis, and extend the framework to multimaterial supply chain modeling and decision support.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2013

Simultaneous Estimation of Model State Variables and Observation and Forecast Biases Using a Two-Stage Hybrid Kalman Filter

In this paper, we present a two-stage hybrid Kalman filter to estimate both observation and forecast bias in hydrologic models, in addition to state variables. The biases are estimated using the discrete Kalman filter, and the state variables using the ensemble Kalman filter. A key issue in this multi-component assimilation scheme is the exact partitioning of the difference between observation and forecasts into state, forecast bias and observation bias updates. Here, the error covariances of the forecast bias and the unbiased states are calculated as constant fractions of the biased state error covariance, and the observation bias error covariance is a function of the observation prediction error covariance. In a series of synthetic experiments, focusing on the assimilation of discharge into a rainfall-runoff model, it is shown that both static and dynamic observation and forecast biases can be successfully estimated. The results indicate a strong improvement in the estimation of the state variables and resulting discharge as opposed to the use of a bias-unaware ensemble Kalman filter. Furthermore, minimal code modification in existing data assimilation software is needed to implement the method. The results suggest that a better performance of data assimilation methods should be possible if both forecast and observation biases are taken into account.

Data Assimilation↗

NASA NTRS1993

Computer program for analysis of high speed, single row, angular contact, spherical roller bearing, SASHBEAN. Volume 1: User's guide

The computer program SASHBEAN (Sikorsky Aircraft Spherical Roller High Speed Bearing Analysis) analyzes and predicts the operating characteristics of a Single Row, Angular Contact, Spherical Roller Bearing (SRACSRB). The program runs on an IBM or IBM compatible personal computer, and for a given set of input data analyzes the bearing design for it's ring deflections (axial and radial), roller deflections, contact areas and stresses, induced axial thrust, rolling element and cage rotation speeds, lubrication parameters, fatigue lives, and amount of heat generated in the bearing. The dynamic loading of rollers due to centrifugal forces and gyroscopic moments, which becomes quite significant at high speeds, is fully considered in this analysis. For a known application and it's parameters, the program is also capable of performing steady-state and time-transient thermal analyses of the bearing system. The steady-state analysis capability allows the user to estimate the expected steady-state temperature map in and around the bearing under normal operating conditions. On the other hand, the transient analysis feature provides the user a means to simulate the 'lost lubricant' condition and predict a time-temperature history of various critical points in the system. The bearing's 'time-to-failure' estimate may also be made from this (transient) analysis by considering the bearing as failed when a certain temperature limit is reached in the bearing components. The program is fully interactive and allows the user to get started and access most of its features with a minimal of training. For the most part, the program is menu driven, and adequate help messages were provided to guide a new user through various menu options and data input screens. All input data, both for mechanical and thermal analyses, are read through graphical input screens, thereby eliminating any need of a separate text editor/word processor to edit/create data files. Provision is also available to select and view the contents of output files on the monitor screen if no paper printouts are required. A separate volume (Volume-2) of this documentation describes, in detail, the underlying mathematical formulations, assumptions, and solution algorithms of this program.

Aggarwal, Arun K.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Systems Health Monitoring and Prognostics Using Model Based Approach

In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current state and health of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current and future operations. Given models of the current and future system behavior, the general approach of model-based prognostics can be employed as a solution to the prior stated prediction problem. In case of electric aircrafts, computing remaining flying time is safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current state and health of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to predict the future state of the system, it is also required to possess knowledge of the current and future operations of the vehicle. Our research approach is to develop a system level health monitoring safety indicator which runs estimation and prediction algorithms to estimate remaining useful life predictions at system as well as subsystem levels. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can be employed as a solution to the prediction problem and further for decision making. In addition a digital twin concept is being implemented in the framework to demonstrate verification and validation of developed algorithms.

Electronics Prognostics↗