Results for “predictive analytics” — Page 13

DOE OSTI2026

Distributions of Particles Accelerated by Strong Alfvénic Turbulence

This work presents a model for generating nonthermal power-law tails of particles’ energy probability density functions in turbulent collisionless plasmas, applicable to both nonrelativistic and relativistic scenarios. We propose that strong Alfvénic turbulence energizes plasma particles through curvature acceleration, particularly for particles with Larmor radii comparable to the scales of turbulence. When the energy density of the energized particles increases, the efficiency of the energy exchange process diminishes. As a result, the acceleration process saturates, leading to power-law distributions of particle momentum and energy. In the nonrelativistic case, the momentum probability density function scales as f(p)dp ∝ p −3 dp, while in the ultrarelativistic case, the energy probability density function scales as f(γ)dγ ∝ γ −3 dγ, where γ is the Lorentz factor. This model provides a unified framework for understanding particle acceleration in both energy regimes, complementing existing analytical approaches. The predicted scalings are consistent with available observations of energetic ion distributions in the heliosphere and with the findings from numerical simulations of ultrarelativistic particle acceleration in magnetically dominated plasma turbulence.

Alfven waves↗

DOE OSTI2022

Application of the Continuum Damage Mechanics Wilshire-Cano-Stewart (WCS) Model

In this study, the applications of the continuum damage mechanics-based Wilshire-Cano-Stewart (WCS) model are explored to predict rupture time, minimum-creep-strain-rate (MCSR), damage, damage evolution, and creep deformation. Increase knowledge in manufacturing methods has pushed the limit of material science and the development of new materials. Conventional testing is required to qualify materials against creep which according to the ASME B&PV III code, 10,000+ hours of experiments are necessary for each heat before materials are put into service. This process is costly and not feasible for new materials. As an alternative, models have been employed to predict creep behaviors and reduce the amount of time necessary for material qualification. Many models have been developed to predict distinct creep behaviors and the question of which model is best remains. Amongst current models, the WCS model has emerge with the ability to predict multiple behaviors using an explicit analytical approach with the ability to predict long-term creep. In this study the novel continuum damage mechanics WCS is employed in multiple applications. The goals of the study are (a) to discuss and determine the framework of the WCS model and validated it mathematically and using parametric simulations, (b) applied the model to accelerated creep data to show the capabilities of the model with non-conventional data, and (c) applied a novel numerical method, the datum temperature method (DTM) to show the model extrapolations and interpolations capabilities with limited and reduce data sets. To accomplish these goals, data is gathered for alloy P91 and Inconel 718 to develop and post-audit validate the model. The benefits of using the WCS model is that it provides an explicit stress and temperature dependency ideal for extrapolations, the coupled equations are suitable for finite element analysis (FEA) implementation, and it follows an explicit calibration approach. The model also proves that it can be applied to accelerated testing data and using the DTM.

Cano, Jaime A↗

DOE OSTI2022

Efficient machine-learning model for fast assessment of elastic properties of high-entropy alloys

We combined descriptor-based analytical models for stiffness-matrix and elastic-moduli with mean-field methods to accelerate assessment of technologically useful properties of high-entropy alloys, such as strength and ductility. Model training for elastic properties uses Sure-Independence Screening (SIS) and Sparsifying Operator (SO) method yielding an optimal analytical model, constructed with meaningful atomic features to predict target properties. Computationally inexpensive analytical descriptors were trained using a database of elastic properties determined from density functional theory for binary and ternary subsets of Nb-Mo-Ta-W-V refractory alloys. The optimal Elastic-SISSO models, extracted from an exponentially large feature space, give an extremely accurate prediction of target properties, similar to or better than other models, with some verified from existing experiments. Here we also show that electronegativity variance and elastic-moduli can directly predict trends in ductility and yield strength of refractory HEAs, and reveals promising alloy concentration regions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Physics-Informed and Data-Driven Prediction of Residual Stress in Three-Dimensional Machining

Efficient and reliable prediction of machining-induced residual stress (RS) is a key requirement for truly integrated computational materials engineering (ICME). Currently available process modeling approaches, including empirical, analytical, and numerical methodologies lack predictive power and require substantial calibration and validation data. Moreover, most model-based approaches consider only two-dimensional (2D) (i.e., orthogonal), cutting processes. Meanwhile, industrial processes such as milling, turning, and drilling are inherently three-dimensional (3D). The present work attempts to bridge the gap between 2D and 3D through careful consideration of the process physics, including geometric, kinematic, and size-effect constraints to realize robust prediction of how RS develops in 3D machining. Using a novel in-situ experimental technique and digital image correlation (DIC) to determine equivalent Hertzian contact widths, contact pressures, and friction coefficients, the proposed methodology leverages a discretized conversion algorithm that includes multi-pass shakedown effects. This paper presents a semi-analytical model to predict machining-induced RS in 3D turning operations, which are used representatively for 3D processes more generally. Rather than follow a ‘brute force’ 3D FEM approach or conduct countless experiments to train a purely data-driven machine learning algorithm, the proposed approach builds on previous 2D modeling work. Through careful consideration of the process physics, including complex geometry/kinematic considerations of 3D turning, the authors demonstrated an experimentally calibrated approach, as well as validation based on published RS data. Model predictions and previously published measurement data of RS depth profiles for turning of Inconel 718 were compared for a range of process parameters. Correlation between the proposed 3D model and validation data was found to be within the margin of experimental error for most conditions. The proposed model appears to capture the overall behavior of 3D RS depth profiles with acceptable accuracy, particularly the key metrics of near-surface stress, peak stress magnitude and location, as well as overall stress profile depth. This report presents a physics-informed, data-driven approach for efficient calibration of a 2D model for machining-induced RS through DIC analysis of in-situ characterized subsurface displacement fields.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Uncertainty in HPC Job Queue Time Predictions

High Performance Computing (HPC) has developed at an unprecedented pace in recent decades. This growth has demanded corresponding development in the area of HPC Operational Data Analytics (ODA), which encompasses a wide range of data analysis techniques, ML/AI efforts, tools, and visualizations. Published studies in ODA offer a variety of practical ways to inform HPC users, administrators, procurement managers, and other stakeholders. Uncertainty analysis, however, is rare in the related published literature. For instance, we identify only 1 out of 14 existing studies focused on job queue time prediction that investigates the uncertainty aspect of their proposed predictions. We recognize the utmost importance uncertainty quantification can have in such predictive analytics solutions, with consequences in how users interpret information they receive, and attempt to bridge this gap. With the goal of improving access to such insights, we develop a process for determining upper and lower bounds of the predicted queue times of a regression model at a specified confidence level. Our current research is focused on the uncertainty in predicting job queue times, yet our approach may be employed in predicting other metrics.

HPC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control Project: Summary Report on Material Characterization, Part 1

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) undertook the Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control (MCPC) Laboratory Directed Research and Development Project to advance understanding of nuclear material processing and enable multifold acceleration in the development and qualification of new material systems in national security and advanced energy applications (Smith 2021). The MCPC Project executed research across three scientific vertices—material characterization, predictive modeling, and data analytics—with extensive support by a data curation and management team. The central technical objective in the MCPC Project was to improve the prediction and characterization of the process-structure-property relationships within the microstructurally refined region of stainless-steel samples prepared utilizing friction stir processing (FSP). Application of the FSP technique is well established at PNNL within the Solid Phase Processing capability through many years of investment across a range of materials and applications (PNNL 2024). Three distinct rounds of FSP experiments were performed by the experimental team, producing replicate samples utilizing across different nominal processing conditions (Condition IDs) listed in Table 1. The starting material on which FSP was applied was commercially available unprocessed stainless-steel type 316L material. Chosen processing conditions were very diverse, and some were intentionally chosen to produce defects. Several samples experienced tool breakage during experimentation, so a full set of three replicates was not produced for every nominal processing condition.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control Project: Summary Report on Material Characterization, Part 2

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) undertook the Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control (MCPC) Laboratory Directed Research and Development Project to advance understanding of nuclear material processing and enable multifold acceleration in the development and qualification of new material systems in national security and advanced energy applications (Smith 2021). The MCPC Project executed research across three scientific vertices—material characterization, predictive modeling, and data analytics—with extensive support by a data curation and management team. The central technical objective in the MCPC Project was to improve the prediction and characterization of the process-structure-property relationships within the microstructurally refined region of stainless-steel samples prepared utilizing friction stir processing (FSP). Application of the FSP technique is well established at PNNL within the Solid Phase Processing capability through many years of investment across a range of materials and applications (PNNL 2024).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control Project: Summary Report on Material Characterization, Part 3

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) undertook the Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control (MCPC) Laboratory Directed Research and Development Project to advance understanding of nuclear material processing and enable multifold acceleration in the development and qualification of new material systems in national security and advanced energy applications (Smith 2021). The MCPC Project executed research across three scientific vertices—material characterization, predictive modeling, and data analytics—with extensive support by a data curation and management team. The central technical objective in the MCPC Project was to improve the prediction and characterization of the process-structure-property relationships within the microstructurally refined region of stainless-steel samples prepared utilizing friction stir processing (FSP). Application of the FSP technique is well established at PNNL within the Solid Phase Processing capability through many years of investment across a range of materials and applications (PNNL 2024).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control Project: Summary Report on Material Characterization, Part 4

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) undertook the Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control (MCPC) Laboratory Directed Research and Development Project to advance understanding of nuclear material processing and enable multifold acceleration in the development and qualification of new material systems in national security and advanced energy applications (Smith 2021). The MCPC Project executed research across three scientific vertices—material characterization, predictive modeling, and data analytics—with extensive support by a data curation and management team. The central technical objective in the MCPC Project was to improve the prediction and characterization of the process-structure-property relationships within the microstructurally refined region of stainless-steel samples prepared utilizing friction stir processing (FSP). Application of the FSP technique is well established at PNNL within the Solid Phase Processing capability through many years of investment across a range of materials and applications (PNNL 2024).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analytic evaluation of hydrogen neutron elastic scattering moments with free-gas thermal treatment compared to NJOY

In this article, we present an analytic approach to evaluate Legendre moments of hydrogen neutron elastic scattering differential cross section, with and without free-gas thermal treatment. The results for the zero-th (P 0 ) and first (P 1 ) moments are given and compared against a 138-group cross sections produced by NJOY. An MCNP thin-wire test was employed as an independent verification for our analytic model for the free-gas zero-th moment. Excellent agreement was observed between the analytic result and MCNP prediction. They both suggest that an increased thermal cut-off in NJOY THERMR module is advisable for higher accuracy. Discrepancy was also found between the analytic model and NJOY multi-group cross section for the first order Legendre moments of the differential cross section, which might indicate a numerical anomaly in NJOY.

NJOY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Comparing Experimentally-Measured Sand’s Times with Concentrated Solution Theory Predictions in a Polymer Electrolyte

We compare the electrochemically measured Sand’s time, the time required for the cell potential to diverge when the applied current density exceeds the limiting current, with theoretical predictions for a 0.47 M poly(ethylene oxide) (5 kg mol −1 )/LiTFSI electrolyte. The theoretical predictions are made using concentrated solution theory which accounts for both concentration polarization and polymer motion, using independently measured parameters that depend on concentration, c : conductivity ( κ ), salt diffusion coefficient ( D ), cationic transference number with respect to the solvent velocity ( t + 0 ), thermodynamic factor 1 + dln f ± dln c , and partial molar volume of the salt ( V ̅ ); f ± is the mean molar activity coefficient of the salt. We find quantitative agreement between experimental data and theoretical predictions. We derive a generalized analytical expression for Sand’s time for electrolytes based on dilute solution theory. This expression correctly predicts the divergence of the Sand’s time at the limiting current, in agreement with experimental data and concentrated solution theory predictions. When the applied current is large compared to the limiting current, the analytical expression approaches the standard expression for Sand’s time used in the literature.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Fouling modeling and prediction approach for heat exchangers using deep learning

In this article, we develop a generalized and scalable statistical model for accurate prediction of fouling resistance using commonly measured parameters of industrial heat exchangers. This prediction model is based on deep learning where a scalable algorithmic architecture learns non-linear functional relationships between a set of target and predictor variables from large number of training samples. Here, the efficacy of this modeling approach is demonstrated for predicting fouling in an analytically modeled cross-flow heat exchanger, designed for waste heat recovery from flue-gas using room temperature water. The performance results of the trained models demonstrate that the mean absolute prediction errors are under 10 –4 KW –1 for flue-gas side, water side and overall fouling resistances. The coefficients of determination (R 2 ), which characterize the goodness of fit between the predictions and observed data, are over 99%. Even under varying levels of measurement noise in the inputs, we demonstrate that predictions over an ensemble of multiple neural networks achieves better accuracy and robustness to noise. We find that the proposed deep-learning fouling prediction framework learns to follow heat exchanger flow and heat transfer physics, which we confirm using locally interpretable model agnostic explanations around randomly selected operating points. Overall, we provide a robust algorithmic framework for fouling prediction that can be generalized and scaled to various types of industrial heat exchangers.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Real-time GIS Programming and Geocomputation

Streaming data generated continuously from sensor networks, mobile devices, social media platforms and other edge devices have posed significant challenges to existing computing platforms for achieving both high throughput and low latency data processing in addition to scalable computing. This entry introduces a real-time computing and programming platform for time-critical GIS (Geographic Information System) applications. In this platform, advanced streaming data processing software, such as Apache Kafka and Spark Streaming, are integrated to enable data analytics in real-time. This computing platform can also be extended to integrate GeoAI (Geospatial Artificial Intelligence) based machine learning models to leverage both historical and streaming data to achieve real-time prediction and intelligent geospatial analytics. Two real-time geospatial applications in terms of flood simulation and climate data visualization are introduced to demonstrate how real-time programming and computing can help tackle real-world problems with important societal impacts.

Liu, Yan↗

DOE OSTI2022

Pit Stability Predictions of Additively Manufactured SS316 Surfaces Using Finite Element Analysis

Stainless steels are susceptible to localized forms of corrosion attack, such as pitting. The size and lifetime of a nucleated pit can vary, depending on a critical potential or current density criterion, which determines if the pit repassivates or continues growing. This work uses finite element method (FEM) modeling to compare the critical pit radii predicted by thermodynamic and kinetic repassivation criteria. Experimental electrochemical boundary conditions are used to capture the active pit kinetics. Geometric and environmental parameters, such as the pit shape and size (analogous to additively manufactured lack-of-fusion pores), solution concentration, and water layer thickness were considered to assess their impact on the pit repassivation criterion. The critical pit radius (the transition point from stable growth to repassivation) predicted for a hemispherical pit was larger when using the repassivation potential (E rp ) criteria, as opposed to the current density criteria (pit stability product). Including both the pit stability product and E rp into its calculations, the analytical maximum pit model predicted a critical radius two times more conservative than the FEA approach, under the conditions studied herein. The complex pits representing lack-of-fusion pores were shown to have minimal impact on the critical radius in atmospheric conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Tailored Fiber Placement for Complex Preforms

Tailored Fiber Placement (TFP) offers a novel approach to optimize fiber architecture for the fabrication of complex, structural parts not traditionally suitable for advanced composites. This technology not only offers new routes for weight reduction via metal substitution, it also offers cost reduction through minimization of material scrap and reduced labor. This reduction in component weight leads to increased fuel efficiency, and reduced production energy consumption, thereby, helping to achieve the stated IACMI technical goals. This technology leverages centuries of manufacturing development in support of the textile and embroidery industry. One major drawback to this technology is the lack of commercial or non- proprietary structural performance data and robust analytical tools used to optimize fiber architecture and predict performance. This project was structured to utilize common sub-element features to validate analytical performance tools, generate performance data, and gather cost and performance data on components of interest. This project was designed to give industry sponsors the confidence and ability to take full advantage of TFP to fabricate primary, highly loaded structure and integrate features such as metallic fasteners. The project focused principally on the use of high strength carbon fiber, such as T700, and the use of aerospace epoxy resin matrix to primarily support development of new composite applications in vehicle, aerospace, and industrial markets. This project applied previously developed analytical tools to predict the performance of TFP produced parts. This work focused on developing the pipeline to characterize material in order to accurately predict component performance when modifying the TFP print paths and stitch density. This focused on experimental characterization via standardized ASTM testing, alongside experimental testing of more representative service components by testing curved beam strength, beam shear performance, a large scale TFP lug, and ultimately designing a fully TFP clip bracket that reduced weight and cost compared to a traditional metallic component. The new knowledge gained from this program included: 1) development and demonstration of novel analytical tools applied to analysis of TFP preforms; 2) development and demonstration of a building block approach using coupons and sub-elements to optimize the design of a more complex component; 3) demonstration that optimized fiber orientation using TFP can exceed performance of conventional textile composite materials and can open new applications currently limited to metallic components; 4) Demonstration of performance and cost benefits of the TFP process as compared to metallic and conventional textile composites. Recommendations for follow-on work include development of design allowables to assess the impact of high temperature/moisture exposure or saturation during loading, tracking the impact of stitching needle wear on the performance of parts and ability to stitch thicker preforms, using TFP preforms as local reinforcement at areas of bearing or complex loading, and topology optimization of components by tow steering. The expertise developed during the course of this project can be leveraged to provide commercial engineering design and fabrication services using TFP. UDRI is in the process of formalizing their partnership with Spintech, who will serve as the commercialization partner for this technology and provide molding services and deliver finished components to the end user. UDRI will continue to produce the preforms until the economics allow Spintech to procure its own TFP equipment or lease UDRI equipment, at which point UDRI will step away from manufacture and serve as the engineering and design lead on product development.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analytic fits to atom-in-jellium shear modulus predictions

Fits to AJ shear modulus calculations from ρ0 to the limit of the corresponding AJ EOS table (usually 1000 ρ0), adjusted to reproduce STP shear modulus where possible. Fitting minimized the fractional difference, so low-pressure points would be reproduced accurately despite the wide-ranging tabulation. AJ calculations were at T=0. Isochoric variation G(T) has been small for all cases spot-tested so far, and may have either sign. The fitted equation usually matches the AJ data to within a few percent. Between numerical noise in the AJ calculation and probably-physical structure not captured by the equation, the deviation could be up to 20% in some places in most models, and 30% in a few. AJ does not capture structural phase transitions or phases stabilized by directional bonds, where the shear modulus may vary by a greater amount. Where possible, STP ρ,G were used as parameters, and low pressure AJ points were de-weighted or removed if necessary. Otherwise, such as where AJ fails to capture solid phases with a significantly different shear modulus, the AJ data were fitted as far down in pressure as possible, G0 was also fitted if necessary, and ρ0 was also adjusted if needed to keep G0>0. The resulting models are not intended for use at low pressure, though some are probably adequate for practical purposes

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Comprehensive Studies on Hot Compaction and Vibration-Assisted Compaction Tests of Aluminum Powder

Abstract Aluminum powder compaction was studied using both test and simulation. Cold compaction, hot compaction, and vibration-assisted (cold) compaction tests were conducted to achieve different density ratios. First, the hot compaction test (at 300 °C, compression pressure 140 MPa) improved about 6% compared with cold compaction under the same compression pressure. Second, although the relative density ratio does not obviously improve at a vibration-assisted (cold) compaction, the strength of the specimens made under vibration loading is much better than those of cold compaction. Additionally, finite element models with well-calibrated Drucker–Prager Cap (DPC) material constitutive model were built in abaqus/standard to simulate the powder compaction process. The results of the finite element model have very good correlations with test results up to the tested range, and this finite element model further predicts the loading conditions needed to achieve the higher density ratios. Two exponential equations of the predicted density ratio were obtained by combining the test data and the simulation results. A new analytical solution was developed to predict the axial pressure versus the density ratio for the powder compaction according to DPC material model. The results between the analytical solution and the simulation model have a very good match.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian learning with Gaussian processes for low-dimensional representations of time-dependent nonlinear systems

This work presents a data-driven method for learning low-dimensional time-dependent physics-based surrogate models whose predictions are endowed with uncertainty estimates. We use the operator inference approach to model reduction that poses the problem of learning low-dimensional model terms as a regression of state space data and corresponding time derivatives by minimizing the residual of reduced system equations. Standard operator inference models perform well with accurate training data that are dense in time, but producing stable and accurate models when the state data are noisy and/or sparse in time remains a challenge. Another challenge is the lack of uncertainty estimation for the predictions from the operator inference models. Our approach addresses these challenges by incorporating Gaussian process surrogates into the operator inference framework to (1) probabilistically describe uncertainties in the state predictions and (2) procure analytical time derivative estimates with quantified uncertainties. The formulation leads to a generalized least-squares regression and, ultimately, reduced-order models that are described probabilistically with a closed-form expression for the posterior distribution of the operators. The resulting probabilistic surrogate model propagates uncertainties from the observed state data to reduced-order predictions. Furthermore, we demonstrate the method is effective for constructing low-dimensional models of two nonlinear partial differential equations representing a compressible flow and a nonlinear diffusion–reaction process, as well as for estimating the parameters of a low-dimensional system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations representing compartmental models in epidemiology.

Data-driven model reduction↗