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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivities of time-dependent temperature profile predictions for NSTX with the multi-mode model

The Multi-Mode Model (MMM) for turbulent transport was applied to a large set of well-analyzed discharges from the National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) in order to evaluate its sensitivities to a wide range of plasma conditions. MMM calculations were performed for hundreds of milliseconds in each discharge by performing time-dependent predictive simulations with the 1.5D tokamak integrated modeling code TRANSP. A closely related study (Lestz et al 2025 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 67 105029) concluded that MMM predicted electron and ion temperature profiles that were in reasonable agreement with NSTX observations, generally outperforming a different reduced transport model, TGLF. This finding motivates the more thorough investigation of the characteristics of the MMM predictions conducted in this work. The simulations with MMM have electron energy transport dominated by electron temperature gradient modes in the examined discharges with relatively low plasma β (ratio of kinetic plasma pressure to magnetic field pressure) and high collisionality, transitioning to a mixture of different modes for higher β and lower collisionality. The thermal ion diffusivity predicted by MMM is much smaller than the neoclassical contribution, in line with previous experimental analysis of NSTX. Nonetheless, the electron and ion temperature profiles are coupled via collisional energy exchange and thus sensitive to which transport channels are predicted. The time-dependent simulations with MMM are robust to the simulation start time, converging to remarkably similar temperature profiles later during the discharge. MMM typically overpredicts confinement relative to NSTX observations, leading to the prediction of overly steep temperature profiles. Plasmas with spatially broader temperature profiles, higher plasma β, and longer energy confinement times tend to be predicted by MMM with better agreement with the experiment. As a result, these findings provide useful context for understanding the regime-dependent tendencies of MMM in anticipation of self-consistent, time-dependent predictive simulations of NSTX-U discharges with these same modeling tools.

MMM↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hybrid deep learning architecture for general disruption prediction across tokamaks

In this paper, we present a new deep learning disruption prediction algorithm based on important findings from explorative data analysis which effectively allows knowledge transfer from existing devices to new ones, thereby predicting disruptions using very limited disruptive data from the new devices. Here, the explorative data analysis conducted via unsupervised clustering techniques confirms that time-sequence data are much better separators of disruptive and non-disruptive behavior than the instantaneous plasma state data with further advantageous implications for a sequence-based predictor. Based on such important findings, we have designed a new algorithm for multi-machine disruption prediction that achieves high predictive accuracy on the C-Mod (AUC=0.801), DIII-D (AUC=0.947) and EAST (AUC=0.973) tokamaks with limited hyperparameter tuning. Through numerical experiments, we show that boosted accuracy (AUC=0.959) is achieved on EAST predictions by including in the training only 20 disruptive discharges, thousands of non-disruptive discharges from EAST, and combining this with more than a thousand discharges from DIII-D and C-Mod. The improvement of predictive ability obtained by combining disruptive data from other devices is found to be true for all permutations of the three devices. Furthermore, by comparing the predictive performance of each individual numerical experiment, we find that non-disruptive data are machine-specific while disruptive data from multiple devices contain device-independent knowledge that can be used to inform predictions for disruptions occurring on a new device.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A deep dilated convolutional residual network for predicting interchain contacts of protein homodimers

Abstract Motivation Deep learning has revolutionized protein tertiary structure prediction recently. The cutting-edge deep learning methods such as AlphaFold can predict high-accuracy tertiary structures for most individual protein chains. However, the accuracy of predicting quaternary structures of protein complexes consisting of multiple chains is still relatively low due to lack of advanced deep learning methods in the field. Because interchain residue–residue contacts can be used as distance restraints to guide quaternary structure modeling, here we develop a deep dilated convolutional residual network method (DRCon) to predict interchain residue–residue contacts in homodimers from residue–residue co-evolutionary signals derived from multiple sequence alignments of monomers, intrachain residue–residue contacts of monomers extracted from true/predicted tertiary structures or predicted by deep learning, and other sequence and structural features. Results Tested on three homodimer test datasets (Homo_std dataset, DeepHomo dataset and CASP-CAPRI dataset), the precision of DRCon for top L/5 interchain contact predictions (L: length of monomer in a homodimer) is 43.46%, 47.10% and 33.50% respectively at 6 Å contact threshold, which is substantially better than DeepHomo and DNCON2_inter and similar to Glinter. Moreover, our experiments demonstrate that using predicted tertiary structure or intrachain contacts of monomers in the unbound state as input, DRCon still performs well, even though its accuracy is lower than using true tertiary structures in the bound state are used as input. Finally, our case study shows that good interchain contact predictions can be used to build high-accuracy quaternary structure models of homodimers. Availability and implementation The source code of DRCon is available at https://github.com/jianlin-cheng/DRCon. The datasets are available at https://zenodo.org/record/5998532#.YgF70vXMKsB. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Accurate flux predictions using tissue-specific gene expression in plant metabolic modeling

The accurate prediction of complex phenotypes such as metabolic fluxes in living systems is a grand challenge for systems biology and central to efficiently identifying biotechnological interventions that can address pressing industrial needs. The application of gene expression data to improve the accuracy of metabolic flux predictions using mechanistic modeling methods such as flux balance analysis (FBA) has not been previously demonstrated in multi-tissue systems, despite their biotechnological importance. We hypothesized that a method for generating metabolic flux predictions informed by relative expression levels between tissues would improve prediction accuracy. Relative gene expression levels derived from multiple transcriptomic and proteomic datasets were integrated into FBA predictions of a multi-tissue, diel model of Arabidopsis thaliana’s central metabolism. This integration dramatically improved the agreement of flux predictions with experimentally based flux maps from 13 C metabolic flux analysis compared with a standard parsimonious FBA approach. Disagreement between FBA predictions and MFA flux maps was measured using weighted averaged percent error values, and for parsimonious FBA this was 169%–180% for high light conditions and 94%–103% for low light conditions, depending on the gene expression dataset used. This fell to 10%-13% and 9%-11% upon incorporating expression data into the modeling process, which also substantially altered the predicted carbon and energy economy of the plant.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Genomic prediction of hybrid performance for agronomic traits in sorghum

Hybrid breeding in sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] utilizes the cytoplasmic-nuclear male sterility (CMS) system for seed production and subsequently harnesses heterosis. Since the cost of developing and evaluating inbred and hybrid lines in the CMS system is costly and time-consuming, genomic prediction of parental lines and hybrids is based on genetic data genotype. We generated 602 hybrids by crossing two female (A) lines with 301 diverse and elite male (R) lines from the sorghum association panel and collected phenotypic data for agronomic traits over two years. We genotyped the inbred parents using whole genome resequencing and used 2,687,342 high quality (minor allele frequency > 2%) single nucleotide polymorphisms for genomic prediction. For grain yield, the experimental hybrids exhibited an average mid-parent heterosis of 40%. Genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) for hybrid performance yielded an average prediction accuracy of 0.76–0.93 under the prediction scenario where both parental lines in validation sets were included in the training sets (T2). However, when only female tester was shared between training and validation sets (T1F), prediction accuracies declined by 12–90%, with plant height showing the greatest decline. Mean accuracies for predicting the general combining ability of male parents ranged from 0.33 to 0.62 for all traits. Our results showed hybrid performance for agronomic traits can be predicted with high accuracy, and optimizing genomic relationship is essential for optimal training population design for genomic selection in sorghum breeding.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Traffic Prediction for Merging Coordination Control in Mixed Traffic Scenarios

Connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) have the potential to bring in safety, mobility, and energy benefits to transportation. The control decisions of CAVs are usually determined for a look-ahead horizon based on previewed traffic information. This requires an effective prediction of future traffic conditions and its integration with the CAV control framework. However, the short-term traffic prediction using information from connectivity is a challenging research topic, especially for mixed traffic scenarios. This work focuses on the development of a traffic prediction framework for a merging coordination controller. The previously developed merging controller coordinates the merging sequence and travel speed of CAVs to maximize the energy efficiency and overall mobility. In mixed traffic scenarios, the controller receives information regarding the position of all the vehicles traveling inside a control zone and controls the desired speed of all CAVs. The controller has no control on the human-driven vehicles. The merging controller does not have direct information or an explicit prediction on the behaviors of human-driven vehicles. Aiming to improve the performance of the merging controller in various mixed traffic conditions, a traffic prediction algorithm is developed and evaluated in this work. The performance of this traffic prediction algorithm is investigated for various penetration rates of connectivity for a single-lane secondary road merging to a single-lane primary road. The results show that compared to a constant speed assumption of human-driven vehicles, the proposed traffic prediction algorithm is able to reduce the prediction error of the arrival time of human-driven vehicles at the merging zone by more than 50%.

Shao, Yunli↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning for Daily Forecasts of Arctic Sea Ice Motion: An Attribution Assessment of Model Predictive Skill

Physics-based simulations of Arctic sea ice are highly complex, involving transport between different phases, length scales, and time scales. Resultantly, numerical simulations of sea ice dynamics have a high computational cost and model uncertainty. We employ data-driven machine learning (ML) to make predictions of sea ice motion. The ML models are built to predict present-day sea ice velocity given present-day wind velocity and previous-day sea ice concentration and velocity. Models are trained using reanalysis winds and satellite-derived sea ice properties. We compare the predictions of three different models: persistence (PS), linear regression (LR), and a convolutional neural network (CNN). We quantify the spatiotemporal variability of the correlation between observations and the statistical model predictions. Additionally, we analyze model performance in comparison to variability in properties related to ice motion (wind velocity, ice velocity, ice concentration, distance from coast, bathymetric depth) to understand the processes related to decreases in model performance. Results indicate that a CNN makes skillful predictions of daily sea ice velocity with a correlation up to 0.81 between predicted and observed sea ice velocity, while the LR and PS implementations exhibit correlations of 0.78 and 0.69, respectively. The correlation varies spatially and seasonally: lower values occur in shallow coastal regions and during times of minimum sea ice extent. LR parameter analysis indicates that wind velocity plays the largest role in predicting sea ice velocity on 1-day time scales, particularly in the central Arctic. Regions where wind velocity has the largest LR parameter are regions where the CNN has higher predictive skill than the LR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evidential Deep Learning: Enhancing Predictive Uncertainty Estimation for Earth System Science Applications

Abstract Robust quantification of predictive uncertainty is a critical addition needed for machine learning applied to weather and climate problems to improve the understanding of what is driving prediction sensitivity. Ensembles of machine learning models provide predictive uncertainty estimates in a conceptually simple way but require multiple models for training and prediction, increasing computational cost and latency. Parametric deep learning can estimate uncertainty with one model by predicting the parameters of a probability distribution but does not account for epistemic uncertainty. Evidential deep learning, a technique that extends parametric deep learning to higher-order distributions, can account for both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties with one model. This study compares the uncertainty derived from evidential neural networks to that obtained from ensembles. Through applications of the classification of winter precipitation type and regression of surface-layer fluxes, we show evidential deep learning models attaining predictive accuracy rivaling standard methods while robustly quantifying both sources of uncertainty. We evaluate the uncertainty in terms of how well the predictions are calibrated and how well the uncertainty correlates with prediction error. Analyses of uncertainty in the context of the inputs reveal sensitivities to underlying meteorological processes, facilitating interpretation of the models. The conceptual simplicity, interpretability, and computational efficiency of evidential neural networks make them highly extensible, offering a promising approach for reliable and practical uncertainty quantification in Earth system science modeling. To encourage broader adoption of evidential deep learning, we have developed a new Python package, Machine Integration and Learning for Earth Systems (MILES) group Generalized Uncertainty for Earth System Science (GUESS) (MILES-GUESS) ( https://github.com/ai2es/miles-guess ), that enables users to train and evaluate both evidential and ensemble deep learning. Significance Statement This study demonstrates a new technique, evidential deep learning, for robust and computationally efficient uncertainty quantification in modeling the Earth system. The method integrates probabilistic principles into deep neural networks, enabling the estimation of both aleatoric uncertainty from noisy data and epistemic uncertainty from model limitations using a single model. Our analyses reveal how decomposing these uncertainties provides valuable insights into reliability, accuracy, and model shortcomings. We show that the approach can rival standard methods in classification and regression tasks within atmospheric science while offering practical advantages such as computational efficiency. With further advances, evidential networks have the potential to enhance risk assessment and decision-making across meteorology by improving uncertainty quantification, a longstanding challenge. This work establishes a strong foundation and motivation for the broader adoption of evidential learning, where properly quantifying uncertainties is critical yet lacking.

Schreck, John S.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Two-Stream Multi-Channel Convolutional Neural Network for Multi-Lane Traffic Speed Prediction Considering Traffic Volume Impact

Traffic speed prediction is a critically important component of intelligent transportation systems. Recently, with the rapid development of deep learning and transportation data science, a growing body of new traffic speed prediction models have been designed that achieved high accuracy and large-scale prediction. However, existing studies have two major limitations. First, they predict aggregated traffic speed rather than lane-level traffic speed; second, most studies ignore the impact of other traffic flow parameters in speed prediction. To address these issues, the authors propose a two-stream multi-channel convolutional neural network (TM-CNN) model for multi-lane traffic speed prediction considering traffic volume impact. In this model, the authors first introduce a new data conversion method that converts raw traffic speed data and volume data into spatial–temporal multi-channel matrices. Then the authors carefully design a two-stream deep neural network to effectively learn the features and correlations between individual lanes, in the spatial–temporal dimensions, and between speed and volume. Accordingly, a new loss function that considers the volume impact in speed prediction is developed. A case study using 1-year data validates the TM-CNN model and demonstrates its superiority. This paper contributes to two research areas: (1) traffic speed prediction, and (2) multi-lane traffic flow study.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accelerated coupled Monte Carlo-Thermal hydraulic calculations using a hybrid GTF-diffusion-based prediction block: first results

Accurate predictions of spatial power and temperature distributions require the coupling of a neutron transport solver with a thermal-hydraulic (TH) feedback. Nowadays, Monte Carlo (MC) codes are widely coupled to TH solvers, typically via a Picard iteration (PI) method, due to the higher fidelity that such frameworks can produce. To speed up a PI, a prediction step can produce an improved initial guess for a source distribution and feed it to the MC code. Recent work investigated a prediction step that uses generalized transfer functions (GTFs) to predict the macroscopic cross sections' variations following a perturbation in TH properties, such as coolant density. The previous method also relied on first order perturbation (FOP) theory to predict perturbed power profiles, rather than using an expensive MC iterate. The implemented FOP method relied on generating a fission matrix from which the forward and adjoint Eigenmodes were extracted and later used to for power calculations. The generation of the fission matrix can introduce a significant computational overhead, therefore undermining the performance of the proposed hybrid technique when applied to high-dimensional problems, e.g., full core calculations. This work attempts to improve the GTF-FOP prediction step by replacing the FOP solver with a nodal diffusion solver, thus eliminating the need to calculate a fission matrix. The GTF-diffusion step was tested for various moderator density perturbations. In each case, the predicted power distribution showed good agreement with the reference case. The latter is attributed to the generally good prediction of most spatially distributed macroscopic cross sections, except the transport cross section, which will become the focus of future work. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Application of Modified Meshgraphnets for Subsurface Prediction during CO2 Sequestration

In the face of the increasingly dire consequences of anthropogenic climate change, capturing and storing carbon dioxide is paramount. However, several impediments exist to the safe and effective subsurface storage of CO2, such as cost of transport, identification of suitable sites for subsurface storage, and assessment of long-term risk from storage in subsurface aquifers. Accurate subsurface modeling is necessary to ensure that CO2 storage is both safe and effective. Still, such modeling has traditionally required either substantial time and computational power (numerical simulation) or a substantial amount of pre-existing data for training (machine learning models). Additionally, these models lack flexibility in dealing with both changes in discretization of the input data and generalizability beyond the data on which they are trained. In order to address these issues, this research applies graph neural networks (GNNs) to predict subsurface saturation and pressure during CO₂ injection in a model of the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project (IBDP). GNNs provide a flexible, intuitive method for representing and manipulating complex unstructured data, which is often found in many practical domain problems such as fluid flow and subsurface characterization. These unstructured grids are easily represented in GNNs by representing spatially-localized features such as permeability, porosity, saturation, and pressure as nodes in a graph and relationships between these properties as edges connecting these nodes. This research applies a specific GNN model called MeshGraphNets (MGN) to model the change in CO2 saturation and pressure over a 50-month time period (36 months of injection, 14 months post-injection). The MGN model leverages a message passing process that allows the network to learn both the spatial and temporal dynamics of this system simultaneously. Additionally, training on a limited dataset (64 realizations, 20 time points each) resulted in a high degree of accuracy in saturation prediction both within the same timeframe as the training (20 months, 0.039 average RMSE) and when projecting out to the end of injection (36 months, 0.053 average RMSE). Temporal predictions such as those generated by MGNs and other similar models are prone to accumulated error over time; in order to address this, a multi-step rollout (MSR) training process was applied to calculate training loss. This method mimics the forward prediction during inference by “rolling out” multiple time points in a single training step using the previous prediction as input to the MGN model. By calculating the loss several time steps forward from the current prediction, the model is forced to find a more stable state over time. Application of MSR to the MGN model resulted in an average 15% reduction in inference error over time during forward prediction. This study showcases the immense potential of GNNs as a game-changing methodology for predicting pressure and saturation evolution in CCS projects, ultimately paving the way for more sustainable and effective carbon storage solutions. Presentation prepared for the 2024 AiChE Annual Meeting, October 27 to November 1 2024, San Diego, CA.

Holcomb, Paul↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hardware-Based Emulator with Deep Learning Model for Building Energy Control and Prediction Based on Occupancy Sensors’ Data

Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) is the largest source of residential energy consumption. Occupancy sensors’ data can be used for HVAC control since it indicates the number of people in the building. HVAC and sensors form a typical cyber-physical system (CPS). In this paper, we aim to build a hardware-based emulation platform to study the occupancy data’s features, which can be further extracted by using machine learning models. In particular, we propose two hardware-based emulators to investigate the use of wired/wireless communication interfaces for occupancy sensor-based building CPS control, and the use of deep learning to predict the building energy consumption with the sensor data. We hypothesize is that the building energy consumption may be predicted by using the occupancy data collected by the sensors, and question what type of prediction model should be used to accurately predict the energy load. Another hypothesis is that an in-lab hardware/software platform could be built to emulate the occupancy sensing process. The machine learning algorithms can then be used to analyze the energy load based on the sensing data. To test the emulator, the occupancy data from the sensors is used to predict energy consumption. The synchronization scheme between sensors and the HVAC server will be discussed. We have built two hardware/software emulation platforms to investigate the sensor/HVAC integration strategies, and used an enhanced deep learning model—which has sequence-to-sequence long short-term memory (Seq2Seq LSTM)—with an attention model to predict the building energy consumption with the preservation of the intrinsic patterns. Because the long-range temporal dependencies are captured, the Seq2Seq models may provide a higher accuracy by using LSTM architectures with encoder and decoder. Meanwhile, LSTMs can capture the temporal and spatial patterns of time series data. The attention model can highlight the most relevant input information in the energy prediction by allocating the attention weights. The communication overhead between the sensors and the HVAC control server can also be alleviated via the attention mechanism, which can automatically ignore the irrelevant information and amplify the relevant information during CNN training. Our experiments and performance analysis show that, compared with the traditional LSTM neural network, the performance of the proposed method has a 30% higher prediction accuracy.

Ye, Zhijing↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predictions of the glass transition temperature and viscosity of organic aerosols from volatility distributions

Abstract. Volatility and viscosity are important properties of organic aerosols (OA), affecting aerosol processes such as formation, evolution, and partitioning of OA. Volatility distributions of ambient OA particles have often been measured, while viscosity measurements are scarce. We have previously developed a method to estimate the glass transition temperature (Tg) of an organic compound containing carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen. Based on analysis of over 2400 organic compounds including oxygenated organic compounds, as well as nitrogen- and sulfur-containing organic compounds, we extend this method to include nitrogen- and sulfur-containing compounds based on elemental composition. In addition, parameterizations are developed to predict Tg as a function of volatility and the atomic oxygen-to-carbon ratio based on a negative correlation between Tg and volatility. This prediction method of Tg is applied to ambient observations of volatility distributions at 11 field sites. The predicted Tg values of OA under dry conditions vary mainly from 290 to 339 K and the predicted viscosities are consistent with the results of ambient particle-phase-state measurements in the southeastern US and the Amazonian rain forest. Reducing the uncertainties in measured volatility distributions would improve predictions of viscosity, especially at low relative humidity. We also predict the Tg of OA components identified via positive matrix factorization of aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) data. The predicted viscosity of oxidized OA is consistent with previously reported viscosity of secondary organic aerosols (SOA) derived from α-pinene, toluene, isoprene epoxydiol (IEPOX), and diesel fuel. Comparison of the predicted viscosity based on the observed volatility distributions with the viscosity simulated by a chemical transport model implies that missing low volatility compounds in a global model can lead to underestimation of OA viscosity at some sites. The relation between volatility and viscosity can be applied in the molecular corridor or volatility basis set approaches to improve OA simulations in chemical transport models by consideration of effects of particle viscosity in OA formation and evolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) prediction system using the Community Earth System Model version 2

Abstract. The potential for multiyear prediction of impactful Earth system change remains relatively underexplored compared to shorter (subseasonal to seasonal) and longer (decadal) timescales. In this study, we introduce a new initialized prediction system using the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) that is specifically designed to probe potential and actual prediction skill at lead times ranging from 1 month out to 2 years. The Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) consists of a collection of 2-year-long hindcast simulations, with four initializations per year from 1970 to 2019 and an ensemble size of 20. A full suite of output is available for exploring near-term predictability of all Earth system components represented in CESM2. We show that SMYLE skill for El Niño–Southern Oscillation is competitive with other prominent seasonal prediction systems, with correlations exceeding 0.5 beyond a lead time of 12 months. A broad overview of prediction skill reveals varying degrees of potential for useful multiyear predictions of seasonal anomalies in the atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice. The SMYLE dataset, experimental design, model, initial conditions, and associated analysis tools are all publicly available, providing a foundation for research on multiyear prediction of environmental change by the wider community.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hybrid deep learning architecture for general disruption prediction across tokamaks

In this paper, we present a new deep learning disruption prediction algorithm based on important findings from explorative data analysis which effectively allows knowledge transfer from existing devices to new ones, thereby predicting disruptions using very limited disruptive data from the new devices. The explorative data analysis conducted via unsupervised clustering techniques confirms that time-sequence data are much better separators of disruptive and non-disruptive behavior than the instantaneous plasma state data with further advantageous implications for a sequence-based predictor. Based on such important findings, we have designed a new algorithm for multi-machine disruption prediction that achieves high predictive accuracy on the C-Mod (AUC=0.801), DIII-D (AUC=0.947) and EAST (AUC=0.973). tokamaks with limited hyperparameter tuning. Through numerical experiments, we show that boosted accuracy (AUC=0.959) is achieved on EAST predictions by including in the training only 20 disruptive discharges, thousands of non-disruptive discharges from EAST, and combining this with more than a thousand discharges from DIII-D and C-Mod. The improvement of predictive ability obtained by combining disruptive data from other devices is found to be true for all permutations of the three devices. Furthermore, by comparing the predictive performance of each individual numerical experiment, we find that non-disruptive data are machine-specific while disruptive data from multiple devices contain device-independent knowledge that can be used to inform predictions for disruptions occurring on a new device.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accelerated Coupled Monte Carlo-Thermal Hydraulic Calculations using a Hybrid GTF-Diffusion-based Prediction Block: First Results

Accurate predictions of spatial power and temperature distributions require the coupling of a neutron transport solver with a thermal-hydraulic (TH) feedback. Nowadays, Monte Carlo (MC) codes are widely coupled to TH solvers, typically via a Picard iteration (PI) method, due to the higher fidelity that such frameworks can produce. To speed up a PI, a prediction step can produce an improved initial guess for a source distribution and feed it to the MC code. Recent work [1, 2] investigated a prediction step that uses generalized transfer functions (GTFs) to predict the macroscopic cross sections’ variations following a perturbation in TH properties, such as coolant density. The previous method also relied on first order perturbation (FOP) theory to predict perturbed power profiles, rather than using an expensive MC iterate. The implemented FOP method relied on generating a fission matrix from which the forward and adjoint eigenmodes were extracted and later used to for power calculations. The generation of the fission matrix can introduce a significant computational overhead, therefore undermining the performance of the proposed hybrid technique when applied to high-dimensional problems, e.g., full core calculations. This work attempts to improve the GTF-FOP prediction step by replacing the FOP solver with a nodal diffusion solver, thus eliminating the need to calculate a fission matrix. The GTF-diffusion step was tested for various moderator density perturbations. In each case, the predicted power distribution showed good agreement with the reference case. The latter is attributed to the generally good prediction of most spatially distributed macroscopic cross sections, except the transport cross section, which will become the focus of future work.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Prediction for Pressure Differential Across HEPA Filter Media Based on Media Characteristics and Particle Size Distribution

A new method for predicting the pressure drop across High Efficiency Particulate Air (HEPA) filter media is proposed based upon mass deposited onto the filter and known physical characteristics of the filter media. Detailed are the methods used in conjunction with current filter loading models to predict the pressure drop, as well as tests conducted to validate the methods. The benefit of a prediction model for practical use lies in the manufacturing and service life of nuclear grade HEPA filters. HEPA filters for use in nuclear facilities have a prescribed expiration date and a maximum allowable operating pressure drop. Therefore, the ability to predict the pressure drop across a filter and relate it to an expected length of service time can enable a reduction in wasted filters. This will allow for more informed decisions to be made based upon the dictated life cycle of the filters. Also, understanding and predicting how the pressure drop of HEPA filter media behaves as a function of physical characteristics and loaded mass can assist in future design and manufacturing of filter media. Currently, most existing pressure drop models are either computationally based or analytical methods relying on data gathered during tests. Neither are practical for prediction; the computational methods are difficult to implement, and the current analytical methods are more useful as tools for analysis. The current analytical model developed by Bergman et al. is based upon the pressure drop from each media fiber and modeling the deposited particles as newly formed fibers. Using Bergman's model and the media properties, air properties, and known aerosol particle size distribution, a pressure drop curve as a function of loaded mass can be created. This curve implies initial loading in the depth of the filter media with a transition to pure surface loading on the filter face, and a sensitivity to an evolving particle size distribution as mass continues to load onto the filter. To implement the predictive model, knowledge of the mean filter fiber diameter and porosity of the filter media is required. Traditionally, the mean fiber diameter is calculated as an effective diameter from prior media testing, however, in this study a Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) technique is used to acquire this variable. Validation of the predictive model is provided by flat sheet media tests under a controlled environment with a measured particle size distribution of the challenge aerosol and shows reasonable preliminary agreement.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Method for Producing Hierarchical and Statistically Calibrated Predictions of Nuclear Material Properties from Existing Models

Computer vision-based analysis of micrographs of nuclear materials is an emerging technique for property prediction, synthetic route identification, and other material analysis tasks. These analysis tasks play a pivotal role in many material characterization applications such as signature development for treaty verification, process optimization, etc. The backbone in many of the recent computer vision-based techniques is a deep learning model, which takes a fixed-size set of pixels and provides a class prediction for that set of pixels. For example, previous work developed a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) to predict the synthetic route from a 256 px x 256 px patch taken from a larger image of uranium ore concentrates. In this work, we present several methods for first calibrating these models in a manner that they can provide accurate probabilities of their predictions’ veracity, and several methods of combining these probabilities. Overall, the combination of these two steps into a pipeline allows for full-image and even full-sample (where a sample has many images) predictions with associated confidence values. Finally, we show that one can also use the patch predictions and confidence to produce a visualization to map predicted constituents through the image. Results and examples for predicting and mapping uranium ore concentrates’ synthetic process from imagery will be presented.

artificial intelligence↗