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NASA NTRS1996

High temperature coarsening of Cr2Nb precipitates in Cu-8 Cr-4 Nb alloy

A new high-temperature-strength, high-conductivity Cu-Cr-Nb alloy with a CrNb ratio of 2:1 was developed to achieve improved performance and durability. The Cu-8 Cr4 Nb alloy studied has demonstrated remarkable thermal and microstructural stability after long exposures at temperatures up to 0.98 T(sub m). This stability was mainly attributed to the slow coarsening kinetics of the Cr2Nb precipitates present in the alloy. At all temperatures, the microstructure consists of a bimodal and sometimes trimodal distribution of strengthening Cr2Nb precipitates, depending on precipitation condition, i.e. from liquid or solid solution, and cooling rates. These precipitates remain in the same size range, i.e. large precipitates of approximately I pm, and small precipitates less dm 300 nm, and effectively pin the grain boundaries thus retaining a fine grain size of 2.7 micro-m after 100 h at 1323 K. (A relatively small number of Cr-rich and Nb-rich particles were also present.) This grain boundary pinning and sluggish coarsening of Cr2Nb particles explain the retention of good mechanical properties after prolonged holding at very high temperatures, e.g., 75% of the original hardness after aging for 100 h at 1273 K. Application of LSW-based coarsening models indicated that the coarsening kinetics of the large precipitates are most likely governed by grain boundary diffsion and, to a lesser extent, volume diffusion mechanisms.

Anderson, Kenneth Reed↗

NASA NTRS1998

Precipitation Structure in the Sierra Nevada of California During Winter

The influences of upper air characteristics along the coast of California upon the winter time precipitation in the Sierra Nevada region were investigated. Most precipitation episodes in the Sierra are associated with moist southwesterly winds and also tend to occur when the 700-mb temperature is close to -2 C. This favored wind direction and temperature signifies the equal importance of moisture transport and orographic lifting for maximum precipitation frequency. Making use of this observation, simple linear models were formulated to quantify the precipitation totals observed at different sites as a function of moisture transport. The skill of the model is least for daily precipitation and increases with time scale of aggregation. In terms of incremental gain, the skill of the model is optimal for an aggregation period of 5-7 days, which is also the duration of the most frequent precipitation events in the Sierra. This indicates that upper air moisture transport at can be used to make reasonable estimates of the precipitation totals for most frequent events in the Sierra region.

Pandey, Ganesh R.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Global Precipitation during the 1997-98 El Nino and Initiation of the 1998-99 La Nina

The 1997-99 ENSO (El nino Southern Oscillation) cycle was very powerful, but also well observed. The best satellite rainfall estimates combined with gauge observations allow for a global analysis of precipitation anomalies accompanying the 1997-98 El Nino and initiation of the 1998-99 La Nina. For the period April 1997 to March 1998 the central to eastern Pacific, southeastern and western U.S., Argentina, eastern Africa, South China, eastern Russia, and North Atlantic were all more than two standard deviations wetter than normal. During the same year the Maritime Continent, eastern Indian Ocean, subtropical North Pacific, northeastern South America, and much of the mid- latitude southern oceans were more than two standard deviations drier than normal. An analysis of the evolution of the El Nino and accompanying precipitation anomalies revealed that a dry Maritime Continent led the formation of the El Nino SST (Sea Surface Temperature), while in the central Pacific, precipitation anomalies lagged the El Nino SST by a season. A rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina occurred in May 1998, but as early as October-November 1997 precipitation indices captured precursor changes in Pacific rainfall anomalies. Differences were found between observed and modeled [NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis] precipitation anomalies for 1997 and 98. In particular, the model had a bias towards positive precipitation anomalies and the magnitudes of the anomalies in the equatorial Pacific were small compared to the observations. Also, the evolution of the precipitation field, including the drying of the Maritime Continent and eastward progression of rainfall in the equatorial Pacific, was less pronounced for the model compared to the observations. One degree daily estimates of rainfall show clearly the MaddenJulian Oscillation and related westerly wind burst events over the Maritime Continent, which are key indicators for the onset of El Nino.

Curtis, Scott↗

NASA NTRS1999

The New 20-Year Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Merged Satellite and Rainguage Monthly Analysis

A new 20-year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis has been completed as part of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). This Version 2 of the community generated data set is a result of combining the procedures and data sets as described. The global, monthly, 2.5x 2.5 degree latitude-longitude product utilizes precipitation estimates from low-orbit microwave sensors (SSM/1) and geosynchronous IR sensors and raingauge information over land. The low-orbit microwave estimates are used to adjust or correct the geosynchronous IR estimates, thereby maximizing the utility of the more physically-based microwave estimates and the finer time sampling of the geosynchronous observations. Information from raingauges is blended into the analyses over land. In the 1986-present period TOVS-based precipitation estimates are adjusted to GPCP fields and used in polar regions to produce globally-complete results. The extension back to 1979 utilizes the procedures of Xie and Arkin and their OLR Precipitation Index (OPI). The 20-year climatology of the Version 2 GPCP analysis indicates the expected features of a very strong Pacific Ocean ITCZ and SPCZ with maximum 20-year means approaching 10 mm/day. A similar strength maximum over land is evident over Borneo. Weaker maxima in the tropics occur in the Atlantic ITCZ and over South America and Africa. In mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere the Western Pacific and Western Atlantic maxima have values of approximately 7 mm/day, while in the Southern Hemisphere the mid-latitude maxima are located southeast of Africa, in mid-Pacific as an extension of the SPCZ and southeast of South America. In terms of global totals the GPCP analysis shows 2.7 mm/day (3.0 mm/day over ocean; 2.1 mm/day over land), similar to the Jaeger climatology, but not other climatologies. Zonal averages peak at 6 mm/day at 7*N with mid-latitude peaks of about 3 mm/day at 40-45* latitude. Poleward of 45* the GPCP analysis shows larger zonally-averaged values than most previous satellite-based estimates, although the values are similar to tl,ie Jaeger climatology. Over both ocean areas and at high latitudes the analysis requires additional validation and comparison with special, independent data sets from field experiments and from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) to confirm the absolute magnitude and variations of precipitation seen in the analysis. Interannual and other variations of the global fields will be shown focusing on the recent ('97-'99) ENSO event compared with previous events, including teleconnections at mid and high latitudes. An ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) calculated using the new data set will be described and related to the evolution of the ENSO events during the 20-year period.

Adler, Robert↗

NASA NTRS2000

Global Remote Sensing of Precipitating Electron Energies: A Comparison of Substorms and Pressure Pulse Related Intensifications

The Polar Ultraviolet Imager (UVI) observes aurora responses to incident solar wind pressure pulses and interplanetary shocks such its those associated with coronal mass ejections. Previous observations have demonstrated that the arrival of it pressure pulse at the front of the magnetosphere results in highly disturbed geomagnetic conditions and a substantial increase in both dayside and nightside aurora precipitations. Our observations show it simultaneous brightening over bread areas of the dayside and nightside auroral in response to a pressure pulse, indicating that more magnetospheric regions participate as sources for auroral precipitation than during isolate substorm. We estimate the characteristic energies of incident auroral electrons using Polar UVI images and compare the precipitation energies during pressure pulse associated event to those during isolated substorms. We estimate the characteristic energies of incident auroral electrons using Polar UVI images and compare the precipitation energies during pressure pulse associated events to those during isolated auroral substorms. Electron precipitation during substorms has characteristic energies greater than 10 KeV and is structured both in local time and in magnetic latitude. For auroral intensifications following the arrival of'a pressure pulse or interplanetary shock. Electron precipitation is less spatially structured and has greater flux of lower characteristic energy electrons (Echar less than 7 KeV) than during isolated substorm onsets. These observations quantify the differences between global and local auroral precipitation processes and will provide a valuable experimental check for models of sudden storm commencements and magnetospheric response to perturbations in the solar wind.

Chua, D.↗

NASA NTRS2001

The Evolution of Tropical and Extratropical Precipitation During ENSO Events

Many studies have tried to relate ENSO and global precipitation. This work examines changes in precipitation pattern, amount and intensity during ENSO events over the past 20+ years, using satellite-gauge merged data sets. ENSOs vary in duration and may peak at different times of the year. In this way, compositing events into seasons, such as onset, mature, and decay, is a challenge. This study will explore the sensitivity of using fixed versus variable month seasons to describe El Ninos and La Ninas. Global precipitation patterns will be shown. Both increases and decreases in rainfall are observed during ENSO, and there are more extreme and less 'normal' rain rates (i.e. a greater occurrence of drought and flood) in space and time. In the Southern Hemisphere during ENSO there is a spiral pattern of precipitation anomalies, centered at the pole, that agrees with previous studies looking at model-generated surface pressure. This study also examines the evolution of precipitation and SST in the tropical Pacific. The relation between the Maritime Continent convection center and the underlying surface temperatures of the islands will also be explored. An examination of the evolution of the 1997-98 El Nino and accompanying precipitation anomalies revealed that a dry area surrounding Indonesia, preceded the formation of positive SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific Ocean, 30-60 day oscillations in the winter of 1996/97 may have contributed to this lag relationship. A similar time line of onset was observed during the 1982-83 El Nino. These two events were comparable in strength and timing during the annual cycle. However, in the 1982-83 event the warming at the surface first appeared in the central Pacific, whereas in the 1997-98 event the warming first emerged off the coast of Peru. In both events the positive precipitation anomalies were first observed in the central Pacific, moving to the east Pacific within a month or two.

Curtis, W. R. Scott, III↗

NASA NTRS2001

Interannual Variability of Tropical Precipitation: How Well Do Climate Models Agree With Current Satellite Estimates?

Since the beginning of the World Climate Research Program's Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite remote sensing of precipitation has made dramatic improvements, particularly for tropical regions. Data from microwave and infrared sensors now form the most critical input to precipitation data sets and can be calibrated with surface gauges to so that the strengths of each data source can be maximized in some statistically optimal sense. Recent availability of the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) has further aided in narrowing uncertainties in rainfall over die tropics and subtropics. Although climate modeling efforts have long relied on space-based precipitation estimates for validation, we now are in a position to make more quantitative assessments of model performance, particularly in tropical regions. An integration of the CCM3 using observed SSTs as a lower boundary condition is used to examine how well this model responds to ENSO forcing in terms of anomalous precipitation. An integration of the NCEP spectral model used for the Reanalysis-H effort is also examined. This integration is run with specified SSTs, but with no data assimilation. Our analysis focuses on two aspects of inter-annual variability. First are the spatial anomalies that are indicative of dislocations in Hadley and Walker circulations. Second, we consider the ability of models to replicate observed increases in oceanic precipitation that are noted in satellite observations for large ENSO events. Finally, we consider a slab ocean version of the CCM3 model with prescribed ocean beat transports that mimic upwelling anomalies, but which still allows the surface energy balance to be predicted. This less restrictive experiment is used to understand why model experiments with specified SSTs seem to have noticeably less interannual variability in precipitation than do the satellite observations.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Energy Characteristics of Auroral Electron Precipitation: A Comparison of Substorms and Pressure Pulse Related Auroral Activity

The Polar Ultraviolet Imager (UVI) observes auroral responses to incident solar wind pressure pulses and interplanetary shocks such as those associated with coronal mass ejections. The arrival of a CME pressure pulse at the front of the magnetosphere results in highly disturbed geomagnetic conditions and a substantial increase in both dayside and nightside auroral precipitation. Our observations show a simultaneous brightening over broad areas of the dayside and nightside aurora in response to a pressure pulse, indicating that more magnetospheric regions participate as sources for auroral precipitation than during isolated substorms. We estimate the average energies of incident auroral electrons using Polar UVI images and compare the precipitation energies during pressure pulse associated events to those during isolated auroral substorms. Electron precipitation during substorms has average energies greater than 10 keV and is structured both in local time and magnetic latitude. For auroral intensifications following the arrival of a pressure pulse or interplanetary shock, electron precipitation is less spatially structured and has greater ux of lower energy electrons (Eave _ 7 keV) than during isolated substorm, onsets. The average energies of the precipitating electrons inferred from UVI are consistent with those measured in-situ by the FAST spacecraft. These observations quantify the differences between global and local auroral precipitation processes and will provide a valuable experimental check for models of sudden storm commencements and magnetospheric response to perturbations in the solar wind.

Chua, D.↗

NASA NTRS2001

On the Vertical Distribution of Local and Remote Sources of Water for Precipitation

The vertical distribution of local and remote sources of water for precipitation and total column water over the United States are evaluated in a general circulation model simulation. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) general circulation model (GCM) includes passive constituent tracers to determine the geographical sources of the water in the column. Results show that the local percentage of precipitable water and local percentage of precipitation can be very different. The transport of water vapor from remote oceanic sources at mid and upper levels is important to the total water in the column over the central United States, while the access of locally evaporated water in convective precipitation processes is important to the local precipitation ratio. This result resembles the conceptual formulation of the convective parameterization. However, the formulations of simple models of precipitation recycling include the assumption that the ratio of the local water in the column is equal to the ratio of the local precipitation. The present results demonstrate the uncertainty in that assumption, as locally evaporated water is more concentrated near the surface.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

NASA NTRS2002

The Evolution of El Nino-Precipitation Relationships from Satellites and Gauges

This study uses a twenty-three year (1979-2001) satellite-gauge merged community data set to further describe the relationship between El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and precipitation. The globally complete precipitation fields reveal coherent bands of anomalies that extend from the tropics to the polar regions. Also, ENSO-precipitation relationships were analyzed during the six strongest El Ninos from 1979 to 2001. Seasons of evolution, Pre-onset, Onset, Peak, Decay, and Post-decay, were identified based on the strength of the El Nino. Then two simple and independent models, first order harmonic and linear, were fit to the monthly time series of normalized precipitation anomalies for each grid block. The sinusoidal model represents a three-phase evolution of precipitation, either dry-wet-dry or wet-dry-wet. This model is also highly correlated with the evolution of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. The linear model represents a two-phase evolution of precipitation, either dry-wet or wet-dry. These models combine to account for over 50% of the precipitation variability for over half the globe during El Nino. Most regions, especially away from the Equator, favor the linear model. Areas that show the largest trend from dry to wet are southeastern Australia, eastern Indian Ocean, southern Japan, and off the coast of Peru. The northern tropical Pacific and Southeast Asia show the opposite trend.

Curtis, Scott↗

NASA NTRS2002

Global Precipitation Analyses at Monthly to 3-HR Time Scales

Global precipitation analysis covering the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations are discussed. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to explore global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM(Tropica1 Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. A trend pattern that is a combination of both El Nino and La Nina precipitation features is evident in the 20-year data set. This pattern is related to an increase with time in the number of combined months of El Nino and La Nina during the 20 year period. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The GPCP daily, 1deg latitude-longitude analysis, which is available from January 1997 to the present is described and the evolution of precipitation patterns on this time scale related to El Nino and La Nina is described. Finally, a TRMM-based 3-hr analysis is described that uses TRMM to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I and geosynchronous IR observations and merges the various calibrated observations into a final, 3-hr resolution map. This TRMM standard product will soon be available for the entire TRMM period (January 1998- present). A real-time version of this merged product is being produced and is available at 0.25deg latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 50degN-50degS. Images from this data set can be seen at the U.S. TRMM web site (trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov). Examples will be shown, including its use in monitoring flood conditions and relating weather-scale events to climate variations.

Adler, Robert F.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Satellite Detection of Precipitation over the North Pacific

Intense extratropical winter cyclones often impact the West Coast of North America with strong winds and heavy precipitation. Several times during a winter season, short-term forecasts (24 - 48 hours) of these storms are seriously deficient with central pressure errors in the 10's of hPa and surface low position errors in the 100's of km. For example, 48-hr sea level pressure errors (forecast - observation) at buoy 46005 off the Oregon coast for the 2001 - 2002 winter season is plotted. In addition, two times the standard deviation (determined from pressure errors from the last four winter seasons) are also shown. It is evident from this figure that large forecast errors (i.e. greater than 10 hPa) occurred about 10 times this past winter at buoy 46005 with three events where the errors were 20 hPa. Beside large forecast errors of sea level pressure, numerical forecasts of precipitation for land falling cyclones can also be flawed. This is due in large part to the lack of accurate precipitation information over the ocean. Therefore, remote sensing techniques are the only viable option for obtaining accurate information on the distribution and intensity of precipitation over the North Pacific. Due to the radiative characteristics of precipitation sized hydrometeors at microwave frequencies, microwave sensors are able to detect precipitation over oceanic regions. Past studies have demonstrated the utility of passive microwave rainrate data for locating intense rainfall in rapidly deepening cyclones, in detecting developing polar mesocyclones and in determining frontal bands. There are currently many sources of microwave rainrate data: the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) (currently flying on three platforms), the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-B) (currently flying on NOAA-15, NOAA-16, and NOAA-17), and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager (TMI). Data will soon be available from the Advanced Microwave Radiometer-EOS (AMSR-E) on the Aqua platform. In this paper, we present a new technique for mapping rainrate distributions over the North Pacific utilizing rainrate estimates from several microwave sensors and upper-tropospheric winds derived from geosynchronous satellite IR data. The goal of this work is to develop a way to obtain high temporal and spatial rainfall information over the North Pacific. This information will be used to support the verification of model derived precipitation distributions and to support the analysis of in situ measurements of rainfall during the Improvement of Microphysical Parameterization through Observational Verification Experiment (IMPROVE) field campaigns.

Smith, Jeremy↗

NASA NTRS2001

Evolution of Oceanic Precipitation Anomalies During El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Events of the Last Two Decades

The Global Precipitation Climatology Program (GPCP) recently released monthly global precipitation data that allowed an analysis of oceanic precipitation anomalies before, during, and after El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of the last two decades. During each ENSO event, a major positive precipitation anomaly was observed in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific, while a major negative precipitation anomaly was observed in the Western Equatorial Pacific and Eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean. These precipitation anomalies co-varied strongly with sea surface temperature of the eastern equatorial Pacific, and may therefore be a good indicator of ENSO events. The precipitation anomaly pattern of 1997-98 differs significantly from previous ENSO events and calls certain aspects of current theories on ENSO into question.

Yuan, Jinchun↗

NASA NTRS2004

Classification of Tropical Oceanic Precipitation Using High Altitude Aircraft Microwave and Electric Field Measurements

A physically intuitive and computationally simple precipitation mapping algorithm has been developed for use with the airborne Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR). The algorithm is based on microwave emission and scattering properties of precipitation. Specifically, emission by liquid water allows increasing brightness temperatures at low frequencies to be interpreted as increasing rain rates. Scattering by large hydrometeors (particularly graupel and hail) causes relative minima in the brightness temperatures, with progressively larger hydrometeors scattering progressively longer wavelengths. The vigor of convection is therefore ascertained according to which wavelengths are being significantly scattered. The combination of emission and scattering information from four microwave channels is used to assign a precipitation category, which is related to the liquid rain rate, the vertical extent of precipitation, and the vigor of convection. The qualitative precipitation categories output by the passive microwave algorithm have been verified using coincident radar (ER-2 Doppler Radar - EDOP) and electric field measurements (Lightning Instrument Package - LIP). These coincident measurements can subsequently be used to quantify rain rates, hydrometeor contents, and vertical profiles that are typical for each precipitation category. This algorithm has been developed using an airborne platform. Comparisons are being made with other airborne, satellite, and ground-based radar and radiometer data. This technique shows promise both as a research tool and potentially as a real-time analysis tool, which could be applied to either traditional or uninhabited aerial vehicles.

Cecil, Daniel J.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Classification of Tropical Oceanic Precipitation Using High Altitude Aircraft Microwave and Electric Field Measurements

Cecil, Daniel J.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Anomalous carbonate precipitates: is the Precambrian the key to the Permian?

Late Permian reefs of the Capitan complex, west Texas; the Magnesian Limestone, England; Chuenmuping reef, south China; and elsewhere contain anomalously large volumes of aragonite and calcite marine cements and sea-floor crusts, as well as abundant microbial precipitates. These components strongly influenced reef growth and may have been responsible for the construction of rigid, open reefal frames in which bryozoans and sponges became encrusted and structurally reinforced. In some cases, such as the upper biostrome of the Magnesian Limestone, precipitated microbialites and inorganic crusts were the primary constituents of the reef core. These microbial and inorganic reefs do not have modern marine counterparts; on the contrary, their textures and genesis are best understood through comparison with the older rock record, particularly that of the early Precambrian. Early Precambrian reefal facies are interpreted to have formed in a stratified ocean with anoxic deep waters enriched in carbonate alkalinity. Upwelling mixed deep and surface waters, resulting in massive seafloor precipitation of aragonite and calcite. During Mesoproterozoic and early Neoproterozoic time, the ocean became more fully oxidized, and seafloor carbonate precipitation was significantly reduced. However, during the late Neoproterozoic, sizeable volumes of deep ocean water once again became anoxic for protracted intervals; the distinctive "cap carbonates" found above Neoproterozoic tillites attest to renewed upwelling of anoxic bottom water enriched in carbonate alkalinity and 12C. Anomalous late Permian seafloor precipitates are interpreted as the product, at least in part, of similar processes. Massive carbonate precipitation was favored by: 1) reduced shelf space for carbonate precipitation, 2) increased flux of Ca to the oceans during increased continental erosion, 3) deep basinal anoxia that generated upwelling waters with elevated alkalinities, and 4) further evolution of ocean water in the restricted Delaware, Zechstein, and other basins. Temporal coincidence of these processes resulted in surface seawater that was greatly supersaturated by Phanerozoic standards and whose only precedents occurred in Precambrian oceans.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2008

Application of an Ensemble Smoother to Precipitation Assimilation

Assimilation of precipitation in a global modeling system poses a special challenge in that the observation operators for precipitation processes are highly nonlinear. In the variational approach, substantial development work and model simplifications are required to include precipitation-related physical processes in the tangent linear model and its adjoint. An ensemble based data assimilation algorithm "Maximum Likelihood Ensemble Smoother (MLES)" has been developed to explore the ensemble representation of the precipitation observation operator with nonlinear convection and large-scale moist physics. An ensemble assimilation system based on the NASA GEOS-5 GCM has been constructed to assimilate satellite precipitation data within the MLES framework. The configuration of the smoother takes the time dimension into account for the relationship between state variables and observable rainfall. The full nonlinear forward model ensembles are used to represent components involving the observation operator and its transpose. Several assimilation experiments using satellite precipitation observations have been carried out to investigate the effectiveness of the ensemble representation of the nonlinear observation operator and the data impact of assimilating rain retrievals from the TMI and SSM/I sensors. Preliminary results show that this ensemble assimilation approach is capable of extracting information from nonlinear observations to improve the analysis and forecast if ensemble size is adequate, and a suitable localization scheme is applied. In addition to a dynamically consistent precipitation analysis, the assimilation system produces a statistical estimate of the analysis uncertainty.

Zhang, Sara↗

NASA NTRS2008

Relationship between Mean Winds and Large 10-day Precipitation Anomalies over the Continental U.S.

To better understand the role of surface boundary forcing upon interannual and decadal variability of droughts and precipitation excesses over the continental U. S., an observational study has been carried out to better investigate the dynamical linkages between surface boundary forcing and droughts/floods. This study examines the relationship during the warm season between observed mean wind patterns on the 10-15 day time scale and anomalies in precipitation on that same time scale over the U. S. Each of the 7 cases of significant 10-day, warm-season drought over the U, S. since 1948 that has been investigated was accompanied by significant continental-scale ridging of the mean 10-day 250 mb wind pattern over the continental U.S. and a mid-Pacific relative maximum of 250 mb wind speed of at least 30 m/sec within 20 degrees of the international Date Line. This perhaps suggests the presence of a wave-guide phenomenon over the Pacific. The drought signal for each of these cases was still quite evident when averaged over the monthly time scale. While peak magnitudes of the precipitation anomalies were much larger for the 7 chosen cases of significant of precipitation excess were than for the drought cases none of the patterns of precipitation excess were as unambiguous or wide-spread as the drought cases. In only 2 to 3 cases was there evidence of a continental trough in the 250 mb winds. In fact, one case showed slight ridging over Canada and the extreme northern U.S. Strong southerly low-level jets, however, were evident in the 925 mb winds over south-central Texas or the nearby Gulf of Mexico in virtually all of the excessive precipitation cases, while the Great Plains LLJ was weak or displaced to the north of Texas in most of the drought cases. We will further investigate the asymmetry between droughts and precipitation excesses in their horizontal homogeneity and extent, in their temporal evolution, and in how the are forced by the combined effects of the mean 250 mb westerlies and the mean 925 mb southerly winds.

Helfand, H. Mark↗