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DOE OSTI2026

National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) 2025 U.S. Geothermal Market Report

The 2025 U.S. Geothermal Market Report updates and expands on the 2021 U.S. Geothermal Power Production and District Heating Market Report with the inclusion of geothermal heat pumps (GHPs) for both distributed and centralized heating and cooling applications. The report updates technology and cost trends in the geothermal power generation industry as well as an uptick in market activities, especially those of next-generation geothermal power technologies, including enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) and closed-loop geothermal (CLG). This report also tracks policy and market drivers that have influenced the direction and growth pace of the U.S. geothermal industry over the years, and especially since 2020.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2002

Reinventing the Solar Power Satellite

Economy of scale is inherent in the microwave power transmission aperture/spot-size trade-off, resulting in a requirement for large space systems in the existing design concepts. Unfortunately, this large size means that the initial investment required before the first return, and the price of amortization of this initial investment, is a daunting (and perhaps insurmountable) barrier to economic viability. As the growth of ground-based solar power applications will fund the development of the PV technology required for space solar power and will also create the demand for space solar power by manufacturing a ready-made market, space power systems must be designed with an understanding that ground-based solar technologies will be implemented as a precursor to space-based solar. for low initial cost, (3) operation in synergy with ground solar systems, and (4) power production profile tailored to peak rates. A key to simplicity of design is to maximize the integration of the system components. Microwave, millimeter-wave, and laser systems are analyzed. A new solar power satellite design concept with no sun-tracking and no moving parts is proposed to reduce the required cost to initial operational capability.

Landis, Geoffrey A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Nested Pebble Bed Blanket (NesPeB)

Recent advances in magnetic confinement fusion technology have attracted billions of dollars of investments in startups from venture capitals and corporations, resulting in the development of devices aiming to demonstrate net energy gain in a self-heated burning plasma, such as SPARC (under construction) and others. However, future fusion power plants must operate in regimes that will require technologies far beyond current experience. According to a National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine report, to have nuclear fusion power plants contributing in a timely manner to the planned reduction of atmospheric carbon dioxide, a pilot plant should be built by 2035, and it should demonstrate fusion power production and the performance of the tritium fuel system (requiring a high enough tritium breeding) by 2040. A recognized key technology gap by [26] is the fusion first wall and blanket since no current blanket concept is considered satisfactory or has been built and proven. The first wall and blanket in magnetic fusion reactors form a vital and complex system, as it must satisfy different functions such as power extraction, tritium breeding, plasma containment, radiation shielding, and safety. The list of design requirements is even longer: high enough tritium production for fusion self-sufficiency, low material activation, decay heat and shutdown dose rates, high thermal efficiency, high-capacity factor, high magnets-divertor-vacuum vessel-first wall life, low corrosion, low cost, and intrinsically safe (requiring minimal licensing). Despite fifty-plus years of research, the first wall and blanket concepts proposed suffer from fundamental technical problems and immaturity (TRL=2-3) that jeopardize the timely delivery of a commercial fusion power plant. A fusion first-wall blanket has never been built nor tested, and a "winning", practical functioning design requires enough engineering margins (high enough tritium breeding considering the uncertainty, etc.), manufacturing simplicity, ease of continuous operation, maintenance, and low cost. A new, groundbreaking blanket concept called "Nested Pebble Bed Blanket" (NesPeB) was developed at ORNL under the successful ARPA-E GAMOW FERMI project (patent application allowed by the USPTO). The NesPeB blanket concept addresses current blanket concepts' shortcomings and technical immaturity, paving the way for accelerated delivery of fusion power plants. NesPeB is based on nested pebbles, which are binary-sized lithium-ceramic pebbles enclosed in "Beryllide" perforated and coated spherical shells, which are also binary-sized, stacked on top of each other, forming a "bed" and cooled by Nitrogen gas also "sweeping" the Helium and Tritium generated by the neutron irradiation of Lithium; the vacuum vessel plasma facing material is Molybdenum-96 and -97 with the first wall cooled by Helium while the divertor armor is made of Tungsten. The simulations of the NesPeB blanket using Fusion Reactors Models Integrator (FERMI) are encouraging as they estimate a tritium breeding ratio (TBR) greater than 1.2 using natural Lithium, acceptable pressure drop, and excellent heat transfer properties. Furthermore, the NesPeB blanket is not limited by magneto-hydro-dynamics (MHD) effects, is designed for online refueling, relies on existing tritium extraction technologies, has a simple construction, and limits the corrosion and chemical reactivity problems. NesPeB has the potential to be transformational and disruptive since it can solve all the main, challenging technical problems of fusion device blankets and accelerate a pilot plant delivery for 10 or more years.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multifidelity multiobjective optimization for wake-steering strategies

Abstract. Wake steering is an emerging wind power plant control strategy where upstream turbines are intentionally yawed out of perpendicular alignment with the incoming wind, thereby “steering” wakes away from downstream turbines. However, trade-offs between the gains in power production and fatigue loads induced by this control strategy are the subject of continuing investigation. In this study, we present a multifidelity multiobjective optimization approach for exploring the Pareto front of trade-offs between power and loading during wake steering. A large eddy simulation is used as the high-fidelity model, where an actuator line representation is used to model wind turbine blades and a rainflow-counting algorithm is used to compute damage equivalent loads. A coarser simulation with a simpler loads model is employed as a supplementary low-fidelity model. Multifidelity Bayesian optimization is performed to iteratively learn both a surrogate of the low-fidelity model and an additive discrepancy function, which maps the low-fidelity model to the high-fidelity model. Each optimization uses the expected hypervolume improvement acquisition function, weighted by the total cost of a proposed model evaluation in the multifidelity case. The multifidelity approach is able to capture the logit function shape of the Pareto frontier at a computational cost only 30 % that of the single-fidelity approach. Additionally, we provide physical insights into the vortical structures in the wake that contribute to the Pareto front shape.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1981

Two-frequency /Delta k/ microwave scatterometer measurements of ocean wave spectra from an aircraft

A technique for remotely sensing the large-scale gravity wave spectrum on the ocean surface using a two frequency (Delta k) microwave scatterometer has been demonstrated from stationary platforms and proposed from moving platforms. This measurement takes advantage of Bragg type resonance matching between the electromagnetic wavelength at the difference frequency and the length of the large-scale surface waves. A prominent resonance appears in the cross product power spectral density (PSD) of the two backscattered signals. Ku-Band aircraft scatterometer measurements were conducted by NASA in the North Sea during the 1979 Maritime Remote Sensing (MARSEN) experiment. Typical examples of cross product PSD's computed from the MARSEN data are presented. They demonstrate strong resonances whose frequency and bandwidth agree with the surface characteristics and the theory. Directional modulation spectra of the surface reflectivity are compared to the gravity wave spectrum derived from surface truth measurements.

Johnson, J. W.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data Curation for Machine Learning Applied to Geothermal Power Plant Operational Data for GOOML: Geothermal Operational Optimization with Machine Learning: Preprint

Geothermal Operational Optimization with Machine Learning (GOOML) is a transferable and extensible component-based geothermal asset modeling framework that considers complex steamfield relationships and identifies optimization prospects using a data-driven approach to physics-guided, data-centric machine learning. This framework has been used to develop digital twins that provide steamfield operators with operational environments to analyze and understand historical and forecasted power production, explore new steamfield configuration possibilities, and seek optimal asset management in real world applications. To create, test, and apply the GOOML framework, diverse time-series datasets spanning multiple years were sourced from various geothermal power plant components within several complex real-world geothermal operations. These operations are based in the United States and New Zealand and include a variety of technologies, end-uses and configurations, collectively covering nearly all relevant operating conditions for modern geothermal fields. Datasets were acquired from multiple sources to ensure that machine learning experiments generalized properly to various operating conditions. It was found that the data varied in quality, format, and completeness. To ensure consistency between the various datasets, a standardized data curation process was developed to reliably streamline data preparation. This paper will discuss best practices as learned from the GOOML data curation process which takes the following steps: 1) acquisition of large quantities of data from power plant operators, 2) digestion of data to gain an initial understanding of what is included, 3) data transformation, which includes converting the data into a standardized machine-readable format so that they can be visualized, quality checked, and cleaned, 4) quality assurance and quality control, involving identification of significant data gaps and apparent anomalies through mapping of data features to real world componentry via the GOOML historical model, followed by discussion with modelers and power plant operators to identify additional data needs and to resolve issues, 5) use in machine learning algorithms, and 6) repetition of steps one through five until all data needs are met and data are deemed suitable for producing trustworthy modeling results which may be disseminated, ideally along with the curated dataset. This iterative process is focused on improving the quality of the data rather than tuning machine learning model parameters and supports a shift towards data-centric AI as a means to improving real-world applicability of geothermal machine learning projects.

access↗

NASA NTRS2014

Gas Turbine Energy Conversion Systems for Nuclear Power Plants Applicable to LiFTR Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactor Technology

This panel plans to cover thermal energy and electric power production issues facing our nation and the world over the next decades, with relevant technologies ranging from near term to mid-and far term.Although the main focus will be on ground based plants to provide baseload electric power, energy conversion systems (ECS) for space are also included, with solar- or nuclear energy sources for output power levels ranging tens of Watts to kilo-Watts for unmanned spacecraft, and eventual mega-Watts for lunar outposts and planetary surface colonies. Implications of these technologies on future terrestrial energy systems, combined with advanced fracking, are touched upon.Thorium based reactors, and nuclear fusion along with suitable gas turbine energy conversion systems (ECS) will also be considered by the panelists. The characteristics of the above mentioned ECS will be described, both in terms of their overall energy utilization effectiveness and also with regard to climactic effects due to exhaust emissions.

Energy Conversion↗

NASA NTRS1994

An unmanned mission to Mars with sample collection and in-situ resource utilization

The design for the Mars Analysis and Return Vehicle with In-Situ Resource Utilization (MARVIN) project is outlined. The MARVIN mission is designed to collect samples of the Martian environment; to produce fuel from local Martian resources; and to use the fuel produced to return the samples to earth. It uses only existing technologies. Exploratory Technologies' mission-design efforts have focused on methods of orbit determination, sample collection, fuel production, power, communications, control, and structural design. Lambert Targeting provided Delta-V's, launch dates, and travel times. The landing site is the Tharsis Plateau, to the southeast of Olympus Mons, chosen for its substantial scientific value. Samples of soil, dust, and atmosphere are collected with lander-based collection devices: the soil sample, with a robotic arm similar to those used in the Viking missions; the atmospheric sample, from a bleed line to the compressor in the fuel-production facility; a dust sample, from the dust-collection container in the fuel-production facility; and a redundant dust sample, with a with a passive filter system, which relies upon neither a power source nor other collection methods. The sample-return capsule (SRC) houses these samples, which are triply contained to prevent contamination. Proven technology can be used to produce methane and oxygen for fuel with relative ease at the landing site: the Sabatier reactor produces methane and water by combining carbon dioxide and hydrogen (brought from earth); the Reverse Water-Gas Shift unit combines carbon dioxide and hydrogen to form carbon monoxide and water; a water-electrolysis unit splits the water into hydrogen and oxygen. The Mars-lander vehicle (MLV) transports the equipment from earth to Mars. The Mars-ascent vehicle (MAV) contains the SRC and the engine, which is the same for both the MLV and the MAV. All equipment that is unnecessary for the Mars-Earth trajectory remains on Mars. This report presents detailed sizing information, for which a spreadsheet has been developed. The trends suggest possibilities for expansion, and suggestions for future work in these areas are offered.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2020

Field Validation of Wake Steering Control with Wind Direction Variability

Wake steering is a wind farm control strategy wherein upstream turbines are misaligned with the wind direction to redirect their wakes away from downstream turbines, increasing overall wind plant power. Wake steering is often analyzed assuming steady mean wind directions across the wind farm. However, in practice, the wind direction varies considerably over time because of large-scale weather phenomena. Wind direction variability causes the increase in power production from wake-steering to be less than predicted by steady-state models, but more robust wake-steering strategies can be designed that account for variable wind conditions. This paper compares the achieved yaw offsets and power gains from two different 2-turbine wake-steering experiments at a commercial wind farm with model predictions using the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) control-oriented model, assuming both fixed and variable wind directions. The impact of wind direction variability is modeled by including wind direction and yaw uncertainty in the FLORIS calculations. The field results match the trends predicted, assuming wind direction variability. Specifically, the yaw offsets achieved in the intended control regions are lower than desired, resulting in less power gain, while a slight loss in power occurs for wind directions outside of the intended control region because of unintentional yaw misalignment. The agreement between the model and field results suggests that the wind direction variability model can be used to design wake-steering controllers that are more robust to variable wind conditions present in the field.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Off-design performance of molten salt-driven Rankine cycles and its impact on the optimal dispatch of concentrating solar power systems

This paper presents a model for improving off-design performance predictions for molten salt-driven Rankine power cycles, such as in concentrating solar power tower applications. The model predicts cycle off-design performance under various boundary conditions, including molten salt inlet temperature, mass flow rate, and ambient temperature. The model is validated using industry performance data and benchmarked with results from the literature. A complete concentrating solar power plant, inclusive of solar heliostat field and receiver, is then considered, by implementing the Rankine cycle off-design performance results into the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s System Advisor Model software, which includes a tool that determines optimal power production schedules. The work improves upon the current System Advisor Model by updating off-design performance characteristics. A case study demonstrates the impact of cycle off-design behavior on annual performance for a stand-alone concentrating solar power system and a concentrating solar power-photovoltaic hybrid system. In addition, we demonstrate how cycle off-design performance influences optimal operator dispatch decisions and, thereby, overall system design and economics. We conclude that off-design cycle performance impacts “optimal” sub-system sizing, especially for a concentrating solar power-photovoltaic hybrid configuration in which concentrating solar power must dispatch in conjunction with photovoltaic generation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1980

Coal conversion products industrial applications

Coal-based synthetic fuels complexes under development consideration by NASA/MSFC will produce large quantities of synthetic fuels, primarily medium BTU gas, which could be sold commercially to industries located in South Central Tennessee and Northern Alabama. The complexes would be modular in construction, and subsequent modules may produce liquid fuels or fuels for electric power production. Current and projected industries in the two states which have a propensity for utilizing coal-based synthetic fuels were identified, and a data base was compiled to support MFSC activities.

Dunkin, J. H.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Gaussian FLOWERS: Wind-rose-based analytical integration of Gaussian wake model for extremely fast AEP estimation

A major cost in the study of wind farm layout optimization is the repeated evaluation of the annual energy production (AEP). The current approach to estimating AEP requires a large set of flow simulations to be performed that cover each discrete wind speed and direction combination contained within the wind rose, followed by a probability-weighted sum of the power production resulting from each simulation. Even with inexpensive engineering wake models, this numerical integration scheme can lead to high computational costs. In this paper, we derive an analytical formulation for estimating farm AEP across every wind direction, based on a Gaussian wake velocity model, which reduces the number of wind farm simulations to a single function evaluation. As a result, we find that the Gaussian-FLOWERS approach reduces the time for AEP calculations by more than two orders of magnitude with a small trade-off in accuracy when compared to a conventional approach. This massive reduction in computation cost is useful to reduce overall costs in wind farm layout optimization studies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2014

An Integrated Approach to Modeling Solar Electric Propulsion Vehicles During Long Duration, Near-Earth Orbit Transfers

Recent NASA interest in utilizing solar electronic propulsion (SEP) technology to transfer payloads, e.g. from low-Earth orbit (LEO) to higher energy geostationary-Earth orbit (GEO) or to Earth escape, has necessitated the development of high fidelity SEP vehicle models and simulations. These models and simulations need to be capable of capturing vehicle dynamics and sub-system interactions experienced during the transfer trajectories which are typically accomplished with continuous-burn (potentially interrupted by solar eclipse), long duration "spiral out" maneuvers taking several months or more to complete. This paper presents details of an integrated simulation approach achieved by combining a high fidelity vehicle simulation code with a detailed solar array model. The combined simulation tool gives researchers the functionality to study the integrated effects of various vehicle sub-systems (e.g. vehicle guidance, navigation and control (GN&C), electric propulsion system (EP)) with time varying power production. Results from a simulation model of a vehicle with a 50 kW class SEP system using the integrated tool are presented and compared to the results from another simulation model employing a 50 kW end-of-life (EOL) fixed power level assumption. These models simulate a vehicle under three degree of freedom dynamics (i.e. translational dynamics only) and include the effects of a targeting guidance algorithm (providing a "near optimal" transfer) during a LEO to near Earth escape (C (sub 3) = −2.0 km (sup 2) / sec (sup −2) spiral trajectory. The presented results include the impact of the fully integrated, time-varying solar array model (e.g. cumulative array degradation from traversing the Van Allen belts, impact of solar eclipses on the vehicle and the related temperature responses in the solar arrays due to operating in the Earth's thermal environment, high fidelity array power module, etc.); these are used to assess the impact on vehicle performance (i.e. propellant consumption) and transit times.

vehicle↗

NASA NTRS2017

Verification and Enhancement of VIIRS Day-Night Band (DNB) Power Outage Detection Product

This case study of Hurricane Matthew (October 2016) uses the NASA Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center DNB power outage product (using GSFC VIIRS DNB preliminary Black Marble product, Roman et al.. 2017) and 2013 LandScan Global population data to look for correlations between the post-event %-of-normal radiance and the utility company-reported outage numbers (obtained from EAGLE-1).

DISASTER↗

DOE OSTI2024

Efficient data-driven models for prediction and optimization of geothermal power plant operations

Increasing the capacity of geothermal energy as a renewable resource calls for development and deployment of efficient control and optimization technologies for geothermal power plants. A data-driven prediction and optimization model is presented as a cost-effective and efficient alternative to physics-based approach. The model predicts power output and operational cost by propagating the influence of control and disturbance variables within an artificial neural network (ANN). Numerical experiments with simulated and field data from a real geothermal power plant are first used to demonstrate the prediction performance of the ANN model. The model is then adopted to maximize the net predicted power production by automatically adjusting the working fluid circulation rate. The optimization performance of the model in evaluated using a thermodynamic flowsheet simulation model. The workflow is applied to model and control the effect of ambient temperature on an air-cooled binary cycle power plant, which is complex and costly to perform using a physics-based predictive model. As a result, the performance of the method is demonstrated by applying it to both simulated and field datasets from a binary cycle geothermal power plant.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Molecular insights and future frontiers in cell photosensitization for solar-driven CO 2 conversion

The conversion of CO 2 to value-added products powered with solar energy is an ideal solution to establishing a closed carbon cycle. Combining microorganisms with light-harvesting nanomaterials into photosynthetic biohybrid systems (PBSs) presents an approach to reaching this solution. Metabolic pathways precisely evolved for CO 2 fixation selectively and reliably generate products. Nanomaterials harvest solar light and biocompatibly associate with microorganisms owing to similar lengths scales. Although this is a nascent field, a variety of approaches have been implemented encompassing different microorganisms and nanomaterials. To advance the field in an impactful manner, it is paramount to understand the molecular underpinnings of PBSs. In this perspective, we highlight studies inspecting charge uptake pathways and singularities in photosensitized cells. We discuss further analyses to more completely elucidate these constructs, and we focus on criteria to be met for designing photosensitizing nanomaterials. As a result, we advocate for the pairing of microorganisms with naturally occurring and highly biocompatible mineral-based semiconductor nanomaterials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bench-Scale Testing of a High Efficiency, Ultra-Compact Process for Pre-Combustion CO 2 Capture (Final Report)

The overarching objective of this bench-scale study is to field-validate the technical feasibility of a membrane- and adsorption-enhanced water gas shift (WGS) reaction process that employs a carbon molecular sieve (CMS) membrane reactor (MR) followed by an adsorption reactor (AR) for pre-combustion CO 2 capture while demonstrating progress towards achievement of the overall performance goals of CO 2 capture with 95% CO 2 purity at a cost of electricity (COE) of 30% less than the baseline capture approaches. The main goal of this bench-scale project is to advance the proposed MR-AR transformative CO 2 capture technology to a sufficient maturity level so that our present industrial partners (M&PT and Worley) can potentially adapt the technology for further small pilot-scale testing. The project began at TRL 4, as the system prototype had already been validated in the laboratory on simulated syngas (as part of project DE-FE0026423). The project ended at TRL 5, via scaling-up of the prototype system and testing it on actual syngas at a host site (CAER at the University of Kentucky (UKy)). The project was carried-out in two different phases: In Phase I (during BP1 of the project), the team designed, constructed, and assembled the bench-scale experimental MR-AR system, prepared the membranes, adsorbents, and catalysts, tested the bench-scale unit with simulated syngas to validate functionality, and prepared a preliminary TEA of the technology. In Phase II (during BP2 of the project), the team installed the unit at the test site at the UKy site and completed all utility connections and hookups, field-tested the novel MR-AR process in the bench-scale system using real syngas, collected and analyzed experimental data, and completed a detailed TEA of the technology. A key aim of the project was to identify and address the technical and process risks and to generate information to advance the technology to the next stage of development. All project milestones and success criteria were met. Specifically, the team: (i) designed, constructed and assembled a bench scale system that handled 1 – 5 scfm syngas and tested its functionality with simulated syngas; (ii) prepared high performance CMS membrane tubes (ID: 3.5 mm, OD: 5.7 mm, 30” long) that meet the target H 2 permeance ( > 1 m 3 /(m 2 .hr.bar) or (> 370.3 GPU)) and a target H 2 /CO selectivity >80 at the relevant temperature (up to 300oC) and pressure conditions (up to 25 bar) with a <10% decline in performance over each 250 hr. testing period (iii) procured commercial sour-shift catalyst in sufficient quantity and prepared up to 10 kg of pelletized adsorbent for use at relevant conditions (250oC 2.5wt.% and target sorbent attrition rate < 0.2; (iv) installed the bench-scale unit at the test site (UKy) and tested the MR-AR technology using real syngas for over 250 hr. for both static and flow experiments; (v) updated the TEA analysis based on bench-scale data and met CO 2 capture goals of 95% CO 2 purity at a cost of electricity 30% less than baseline capture approaches. The CMS membranes, HTC adsorbents and catalysts employed all exhibited very robust and stable performance during the long-term run (over a >250 hr live syngas run). Furthermore, the proposed MR-AR IGCC system achieved a LCOE with a N 2 sale price of $\$$ 30/ton, with N 2 compression (no N 2 compression) of 101.2 $\$$/MWh (95.3 $\$$/MWh), which represents a 29.8% (33.9%) LCOE reduction in the baseline IGCC with carbon capture of 144.2 $\$$/MWh. The proposed MR-AR IGCC delivers a CO 2 capture cost of 44.8 $\$$/tonne (39.9 $\$$/tonne) vs 98.1 $\$$/tonne of the baseline capture case and a net power production of 586 MWe (623 MWe) vs 556 MWe of the baseline capture case.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

NASA NTRS1988

Lunar Helium-3 and Fusion Power

The NASA Office of Exploration sponsored the NASA Lunar Helium-3 and Fusion Power Workshop. The meeting was held to understand the potential of using He-3 from the moon for terrestrial fusion power production. It provided an overview, two parallel working sessions, a review of sessions, and discussions. The lunar mining session concluded that mining, beneficiation, separation, and return of He-3 from the moon would be possible but that a large scale operation and improved technology is required. The fusion power session concluded that: (1) that He-3 offers significant, possibly compelling, advantages over fusion of tritium, principally increased reactor life, reduced radioactive wastes, and high efficiency conversion, (2) that detailed assessment of the potential of the D/He-3 fuel cycle requires more information, and (3) D/He-3 fusion may be best for commercial purposes, although D/T fusion is more near term.

Source record↗