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At least 235 records · Page 13

A multi-variance analysis in the time domain

Recently a new technique for characterizing the noise processes affecting oscillators was introduced. This technique minimizes the difference between the estimates of several different variances and their values as predicted by the standard power law model of noise. The method outlined makes two significant advancements: it uses exclusively time domain variances so that deterministic parameters such as linear frequency drift may be estimated, and it correctly fits the estimates using the chi-square distribution. These changes permit a more accurate fitting at long time intervals where there is the least information. This technique was applied to both simulated and real data with excellent results.

Walter, Todd↗

Dynamic Parameter Estimation with Physics-based Neural Ordinary Differential Equations

Accurate estimation of dynamic parameters of gen-erators is crucial to building a reliable model for dynamical studies and reliable operation of the power system. This paper develops a physics-based neural ordinary differential equations (ODE) approach to learn the parameters of generator dynamic model using phasor measurement units (PMU) data. We design a physics-based neural network to represent the swing equations of the power system dynamics. A loss function is defined as the difference between dynamic simulation results from the physics-based neural networks and pseudo PMU measurements. The parameters of generator dynamic model are iteratively updated using the neural ODEs and the adjoint method. By exploiting the mini-batch scheme in neural ODE training, the parameter estimation performance is significantly improved. Numerical study results on a 3-machine 9-bus system show that the proposed algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art baseline method in both computation time and dynamic parameter estimation accuracy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Creep of a Silicon Nitride Under Various Specimen/Loading Configurations

Extensive creep testing of a hot-pressed silicon nitride (NC132) was performed at 1300 C in air using five different specimen/loading configurations, including pure tension, pure compression, four-point uniaxial flexure, ball-on-ring biaxial flexure, and ring-on-ring biaxial flexure. Nominal creep strain and its rate for a given nominal applied stress were greatest in tension, least in compression, and intermediate in uniaxial and biaxial flexure. Except for the case of compressive loading, nominal creep strain generally decreased with time, resulting in less-defined steady-state condition. Of the four different creep formulations - power-law, hyperbolic sine, step, redistribution models - the conventional power-law model still provides the most convenient and reasonable means to estimate simple, quantitative creep parameters of the material. Predictions of creep deformation for the case of multiaxial stress state (biaxial flexure) were made based on pure tension and compression creep data by using the design code CARES/Creep.

Choi, Sung R.↗

Cost and Performance Projections for Coal- and Natural Gas-Fired Power Plants

This report provides quantitative estimates of future cost and performance improvements for fossil-fueled power plants equipped with carbon capture developed through the adaption/modification of relevant Aspen Plus ® case study models from published NETL techno-economic analyses. The cost and performance estimates in this report are meant to represent prospective improvements that may be realized for low-carbon-emitting PC and NGCC power plants through robust commercial deployment (e.g., learning by doing) of high TRL technologies as well as additional investments in targeted RD&D activities. The methodology used to develop the estimates in this report is intended to allow direct comparison of the technology improvements with the SOA baseline published in NETL’s Fossil Energy Baseline (Rev 4a) Report.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

A robust dynamic state estimation approach against model errors caused by load changes

Dynamic state estimation (DSE) plays an important role in power system security monitoring and online control. In practice, there are two approaches to implementing DSE. The first approach is distributed DSE, which is based on the assumption that the terminal bus of each generator can be measured by PMUs (phasor measurement units). The assumption cannot be satisfied currently, however, because PMUs usually are installed at important high-voltage buses such as 500-kV buses installed in portions of the grid overseen by the Western Electricity Coordinating Council. Another issue of this approach is that performance of DSE is vulnerable to bad measurement data. The reason for this vulnerability is that DSE is performed separately through measurements at each terminal bus, and measurements at terminal buses are the only measurement upon which DSE can rely. Therefore, important redundant measurements are not included in this approach. The second approach is centralized DSE. This approach does not have the requirement for PMU location, and redundant measurements can be considered fully. However, load changes and grid topology changes impact centralized DSE. In this paper, we propose a new approach for handling the impact of load changes on DSE. We have developed a new algorithm that includes two sequential steps. In the first step, errors caused by load changes are detected by analyzing the difference between prediction results and measured results. In the second step, once model error is detected, a model optimization procedure is run to correct the error so the state estimation error can be mitigated. Simulation results from the IEEE 68 bus system show that the proposed approach can effectively handle model errors caused by load changes.

robust dynamic state estimation, load change, powe↗

Solar Power System Options for the Radiation and Technology Demonstration Spacecraft

The Radiation and Technology Demonstration (RTD) Mission has the primary objective of demonstrating high-power (10 kilowatts) electric thruster technologies in Earth orbit. This paper discusses the conceptual design of the RTD spacecraft photovoltaic (PV) power system and mission performance analyses. These power system studies assessed multiple options for PV arrays, battery technologies and bus voltage levels. To quantify performance attributes of these power system options, a dedicated Fortran code was developed to predict power system performance and estimate system mass. The low-thrust mission trajectory was analyzed and important Earth orbital environments were modeled. Baseline power system design options are recommended on the basis of performance, mass and risk/complexity. Important findings from parametric studies are discussed and the resulting impacts to the spacecraft design and cost.

Kerslake, Thomas W.↗

Power grid frequency prediction using spatiotemporal modeling

Understanding power system dynamics is essential for interarea oscillation analysis and the detection of grid instabilities. The FNET/GridEye is a GPS-synchronized wide-area frequency measurement network that provides an accurate picture of the normal real-time operational condition of the power system-dynamics, giving rise to new and intricate spatiotemporal patterns of power loads. We propose to model FNET/GridEye grid frequency data from the U.S. Eastern Interconnection with a spatiotemporal statistical model. We predict the frequency data at locations without observations, a critical need during disruption events where measurement data are inaccessible. Spatial information is accounted for either as neighboring measurements in the form of covariates or with a spatiotemporal correlation model captured by a latent Gaussian field. Finally, the proposed method is useful in estimating power system dynamic response from limited phasor measurements and holds promise for predicting instability that may lead to undesirable effects such as cascading outages.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Comparative Analysis of HEATNETS for Geothermal Network Performance

Thermal energy networks (TENs), also known as 5th generation district energy systems, or more specifically geothermal networks when exchanging heat with geothermal boreholes, are an important technology for decarbonization. In these networks an ambient loop connects buildings and thermal sources, such as a borehole field, to exchange energy and maintain a desired loop temperature. Water-source heat pumps are used at the buildings to connect to the ambient or thermal loop to meet to the building heating and cooling loads and maintain comfort. A semi-transient, reduced-order technical model and techno-economic model, called HEATNETS, has been developed at NREL that captures the flow of energy around a TEN. In this work, a comparison of the HEATNETS technical model and a well-known coding platform used for modeling geothermal networks, TRNSYS, has been completed for a proposed geothermal network as a verification and validation process. Hourly data provided from the TRNSYS simulation included building loads, pumping power, heat pump power, temperature entering and leaving the borehole field, and mass flow rates. The hourly borehole temperatures were used to create a linear regression model utilized in HEATNETS to estimate the borehole field heat exchange. The building loads and mass flow rates were direct inputs to HEATNETS while the pumping power, heat pump power, borehole temperatures, and coefficients of performance were all simulated and calculated by HEATNETS, allowing for direct comparison of the thermal energy transfer HEATNETS considers the full process from design inputs to economic outputs and can provide modeling options for high-level initial system design and operational optimization. This study focuses on a validation of HEATNETS using results from TRNSYS. HEATNETS is not intended to replace other modeling tools, but this work demonstrates, via a comparison with an industry standard code, that HEATNETS can be a unique, high-level and rapid modeling tool for estimating the performance of a full geothermal network system.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Models

The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models (https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/jedi/) are publicly available, user-friendly tools designed to estimate the economic impacts of both construction and operation of power generation and biofuel plants at a local (usually state) level. Based on project-specific and default inputs (from techno-economic analysis data and NREL's expertise), these models estimate the number of jobs and economic benefits to a region that could reasonably be supported by a particular project. Underlying these calculations is an input-output framework that models the local economy as a network of sectors buying and selling to one-another, creating a multiplier effect. Over the last decade, JEDI has been widely used by both the academic and private sectors, serving as the foundations for multiple peer-reviewed publications and impact analysis reports.

economic impact analysis↗

Estimating Cosmic-Ray Spectral Parameters from Simulated Detector Responses with Detector Design Implications

A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index (alpha-1) is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 10(exp 13) eV, with a transition at knee energy (E(sub k)) to a steeper spectral index alpha-2 > alpha-1 above E(sub k). The maximum likelihood procedure is developed for estimating these three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses. These estimates and their surrounding statistical uncertainty are being used to derive the requirements in energy resolution, calorimeter size, and energy response of a proposed sampling calorimeter for the Advanced Cosmic-ray Composition Experiment for the Space Station (ACCESS). This study thereby permits instrument developers to make important trade studies in design parameters as a function of the science objectives, which is particularly important for space-based detectors where physical parameters, such as dimension and weight, impose rigorous practical limits to the design envelope.

Howell, L. W.↗

Assessment of doses in contaminated urban areas: modelling exercise based on Fukushima data

State-of-the-art dose assessment models were applied to estimate doses to the population in urban areas contaminated by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. Assessment results were compared among five models, and comparisons of model predictions with actual measurements were also made. Assessments were performed using both probabilistic and deterministic approaches. Predicted dose distributions for indoor and outdoor workers from a probabilistic approach were in good agreement with the actual measurements. In addition, when the models were applied to assess the doses to the representative person, based on a concept recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection and in the International Atomic Energy Agency Safety Standards, it was evident that doses to the representative person obtained with a deterministic approach were always higher than those obtained with a probabilistic approach using the same model.

dose assessment↗

Spatial power spectra of the crustal geomagnetic field and core geomagnetic field

Equations providing numerical values of the geomagnetic field spherical harmonic spatial power spectrum as defined by Lowes (1966, 1974) are obtained and this power spectrum is related to various other power spectra. Equations relating the spherical harmonic spatial power spectrum to average great circle power spectra for components of the vector magnetic field in the radial direction, along the great circle track and perpendicular to the first two directions are derived under the assumption that the sources of the field are internal. A statistical model for the crustal and core geomagnetic fields is proposed and used to derive equations for the expected main and crustal spherical harmonic power spectra. The model equations are then compared with observations to determine a scale factor which is then used to obtain an estimate for the core radius and a great circle power spectrum for the field component perpendicular to the great circle and radial directions which are in good agreement with observations. The predicted spherical harmonic power spectrum for the crustal field is found to be consistent with POGO satellite and aircraft data. Other possible models for the crustal and core geomagnetic fields are also briefly considered.

Mcleod, M. G.↗

Economic modeling and energy policy planning

A structural economic model is presented for estimating the demand functions for natural gas and crude oil in industry and in steam electric power generation. Extensions of the model to other commodities are indicated.

Thompson, R. G.↗

Quantum-Inspired Power System Reliability Assessment

To enable an in-depth study of power system operation and planning, the assessment of standard reliability indices is inevitable. The Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) approach is a broadly used method in replacing the analytical methods in reliability indices assessment. The accuracy of MCS, however, highly depends on the sampling size, and hence, a complicated system with large number of components requires a large sampling size and daunting computational effort. To address this shortcoming, we, in this paper attempt to take advantage of potentials of the quantum computing (QC) for power system reliability assessment by realizing the following contributions: 1) an innovative quantum model designed for reliability assessment; 2) a quantum circuit that achieves the quadratic speed up compared to the classical MCS method; 3) an efficient quantum amplitude estimation (QAE) algorithm to accurately evaluate the reliability indices. The accuracy and efficacy of the quantum reliability method are extensively verified and demonstrated on both radial and mesh distribution systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Performance Evaluation of Intelligent Solar Control Software Through Hardware-in-the-Loop (CRADA Final Report)

Recent research has highlighted the potential for solar to act as a zero-marginal-cost and zero-emission flexibility resource on the bulk power system when operated with advanced control systems. To increase the performance of these systems, leading technologies, including machine learning (ML) and hierarchical inverter set point allocation, have been developed by Latimer Controls, Inc. to estimate the headroom of large PV plants for grid operation and control; however, these technologies lack comprehensive validation under real-world application scenarios. Latimer Controls, Inc. received two voucher awards for research at a national laboratory from the Department of Energy American Made Solar Prize Round 6. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was selected to collaborate with Latimer staff to conduct a performance evaluation of Latimer PV control software. The NREL team will develop a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed to perform testing and validation of the Latimer PV control technology in a de-risked yet realistic testbed environment. Latimer and NREL worked together to analyze the test data, draw conclusions from the results, and disseminate the resulting scientific findings. In this CRADA work, we propose to test and validate the real-world application of the Latimer Control solution in an HIL environment. We evaluate the performance of different flexible solar technologies in responding to automatic generation control signals in a closed-loop fashion. In particular, a data-driven potential high limit (PHL) estimation is developed for large solar plants to accurately estimate their headroom so that they have fast and short-time regulation and control capability to participate in grid services and respond to grid signals in real time (e.g., AGC). This PHL estimation algorithm is embedded in a hardware power plant controller (PPC) and tested with an IEEE-39 bus system model developed in RTDS. To account for the varying cloud conditions and diverse inverter dispatches, we developed a 135-MW PV plant with detailed modeling of 27 individual PV modules and inverters using RTDS. The real-world communications used in such big plants, such as ModBus TCP/IP for inverter level and DNP3 for plant level, were developed to emulate the real-world applications in big PV plants. The ML-based PHL estimation method is tested under nine separate weather scenarios against the ‘reference-control’ solution, hereafter referred to as the baseline solution. The baseline method reserves a subset of inverters (reference group) to operate at their PHL at all times and dispatches only the remaining inverters (control group) at curtailed levels to fulfill the flexibility need. Despite being successfully piloted by NREL in California in 2017 and Chile in 2020, there exist two gaps in the state of the art to fully unlock the flexibility of PV plants: a. There is a trade-off between the PHL estimation accuracy and the flexibility range. b. There lacks granularity in the PHL estimation to capture the variation across inverters. The Latimer solution seeks to address these gaps by applying machine learning methods to improve PHL estimation accuracy while accounting for variability at every inverter. Performance metrics were taken from the 2023 Georgia Power CARES utility-scale RFP. The results demonstrate that the ML-based approach outperforms the traditional baseline method in PHL estimation accuracy for 7 of 9 scenarios. The average PHL error across the nine scenarios was 7.40% for the ML-based method, 2.06% less than the 9.46% PHL error average across scenarios that was exhibited by the baseline method. Additionally, the PHL error was below 5% for at least 95% of the testing interval for 3 of 9 tested intervals with the ML approach, whereas it did not achieve this metric for any of the baseline tests. Overall, simulation results indicate the superior performance of an ML-based approach compared to the conventional baseline reference-control approach, showcasing its potential to support grid stability and operational efficiency. This laboratory HIL testing using real PPC, representative power system simulation models in real-time with detailed PV plant and inverter models, and real-world communication protocols gives us confidence that this machine learning based PHL estimation algorithm works well in the hardware PPC and therefore de-risks future field commissioning. The end goal of this project is to advance grid technology to address the grid operation challenges brought by solar plant’s variability and uncertainties in power generation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Adaptive Error Estimation in Linearized Ocean General Circulation Models

Data assimilation methods are routinely used in oceanography. The statistics of the model and measurement errors need to be specified a priori. This study addresses the problem of estimating model and measurement error statistics from observations. We start by testing innovation based methods of adaptive error estimation with low-dimensional models in the North Pacific (5-60 deg N, 132-252 deg E) to TOPEX/POSEIDON (TIP) sea level anomaly data, acoustic tomography data from the ATOC project, and the MIT General Circulation Model (GCM). A reduced state linear model that describes large scale internal (baroclinic) error dynamics is used. The methods are shown to be sensitive to the initial guess for the error statistics and the type of observations. A new off-line approach is developed, the covariance matching approach (CMA), where covariance matrices of model-data residuals are "matched" to their theoretical expectations using familiar least squares methods. This method uses observations directly instead of the innovations sequence and is shown to be related to the MT method and the method of Fu et al. (1993). Twin experiments using the same linearized MIT GCM suggest that altimetric data are ill-suited to the estimation of internal GCM errors, but that such estimates can in theory be obtained using acoustic data. The CMA is then applied to T/P sea level anomaly data and a linearization of a global GFDL GCM which uses two vertical modes. We show that the CMA method can be used with a global model and a global data set, and that the estimates of the error statistics are robust. We show that the fraction of the GCM-T/P residual variance explained by the model error is larger than that derived in Fukumori et al.(1999) with the method of Fu et al.(1993). Most of the model error is explained by the barotropic mode. However, we find that impact of the change in the error statistics on the data assimilation estimates is very small. This is explained by the large representation error, i.e. the dominance of the mesoscale eddies in the T/P signal, which are not part of the 21 by 1" GCM. Therefore, the impact of the observations on the assimilation is very small even after the adjustment of the error statistics. This work demonstrates that simult&neous estimation of the model and measurement error statistics for data assimilation with global ocean data sets and linearized GCMs is possible. However, the error covariance estimation problem is in general highly underdetermined, much more so than the state estimation problem. In other words there exist a very large number of statistical models that can be made consistent with the available data. Therefore, methods for obtaining quantitative error estimates, powerful though they may be, cannot replace physical insight. Used in the right context, as a tool for guiding the choice of a small number of model error parameters, covariance matching can be a useful addition to the repertory of tools available to oceanographers.

Chechelnitsky, Michael Y.↗

Sodium diffusion in heterogeneous porous media: Connecting laboratory experiments and simulations

Sodium has been suggested as a tracer for brine in reservoir formations where a significant amount of sodium ion is found mainly in the aqueous phase. Fortunately, the most abundant sodium isotope, 23 Na, is Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) active, making it possible to study the structure and dynamical properties of both bulk and pore confined fluid systems. We investigated the diffusion of key dissolved sodium species in bulk solution and porous media as a function of composition, ionic strength, and permeability of the carbonate samples using NMR relaxometry and pulsed-field gradient (PFG) NMR techniques. We use Indiana limestone as an example of natural porous media and water as a freely diffusible tracer and carrier. We demonstrate apparent diffusion measurement of sodium based on changes in spin–spin relaxation time (T 2 ) signal in pore confinement. The diffusion rate of sodium decreases with increasing counter-ion size. This effect is greater at higher ionic strengths and lower chemical potentials in porous media. The reactive transport code, CrunchFlow, was used to complement the NMR experiments to simulate diffusion behavior in porous media. Combining these two methods provides a powerful approach to estimating effective diffusion coefficients in heterogeneous matrices. The modeling considers the influence of physical properties (porosity and tortuosity) and chemical properties (geochemical composition and chemical gradients). The results presented in this work highlight the advantage of measuring apparent diffusivity using NMR T 2 relaxometry in conjunction with numerical simulation to derive effective diffusivity and the corresponding matrix properties (i.e., tortuosity) of the system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Dynamic Modeling, Parameter Estimation, and Data Reconciliation of a Supercritical Pulverized Coal-Fired Boiler

A high-fidelity, spatially distributed dynamic model of a supercritical pulverized coal-fired boiler was developed for calculating transient thermal profiles of the boiler tubes, which are often not measured or unmeasurable in industrial settings due to the harsh operating conditions. In this work, rigorous models of the subcritical and supercritical steam properties, which can be highly nonlinear, were used to capture the transition between two-phase and one-phase flow, respectively, as supercritical boilers frequently transition through the critical point during load-following operation. The transient boiler model was also used for data reconciliation and parameter estimation for the purpose of model validation against industrial data. An approach was developed to reduce the size of large-scale reconciliation problem by focusing on the implementation of bias terms for the reconciled variables, which can be estimated in place of the reconciled variables themselves. In addition, a functional approximation of the reconciliation problem was defined so that it can be more simply optimized. Combining this functional approximation optimization with reformulation of the reconciliation problem considering measurement biases can significantly improve the tractability of many such large-scale problems. The validated boiler model was then used to study transient responses under load-following operation with specific attention on the calculation of unmeasurable variables.

42 ENGINEERING↗