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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1982

User's appraisal of yield model evaluation criteria

The five major potential USDA users of AgRISTAR crop yield forecast models rated the Yield Model Development (YMD) project Test and Evaluation Criteria by the importance placed on them. These users were agreed that the "TIMELINES" and "RELIABILITY" of the forecast yields would be of major importance in determining if a proposed yield model was worthy of adoption. Although there was considerable difference of opinion as to the relative importance of the other criteria, "COST", "OBJECTIVITY", "ADEQUACY", AND "MEASURES OF ACCURACY" generally were felt to be more important that "SIMPLICITY" and "CONSISTENCY WITH SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE". However, some of the comments which accompanied the ratings did indicate that several of the definitions and descriptions of the criteria were confusing.

Warren, F. B.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Empirical Evidence for the Potential Climate Benefits of Decarbonizing Light Vehicle Transport in the U.S. with Bioenergy from Purpose-Grown Biomass with and without BECCS

Climate mitigation scenarios limiting global temperature increases to 1.5 °C rely on decarbonizing vehicle transport with bioenergy production plus carbon capture and storage (BECCS), but climate impacts for producing different bioenergy feedstocks have not been directly compared experimentally or for ethanol vs electric light-duty vehicles. A field experiment at two Midwest U.S. sites on contrasting soils revealed that feedstock yields of seven potential bioenergy cropping systems varied substantially within sites but little between. Bioenergy produced per hectare reflected yields: miscanthus > poplar > switchgrass > native grasses ≈ maize stover (residue) > restored prairie ≈ early successional. Greenhouse gas emission intensities for ethanol vehicles ranged from 20 to -179 g CO 2 e MJ –1 : maize stover $\gg$ miscanthus ≈ switchgrass ≈ native grasses ≈ poplar > early successional ≥ restored prairie; direct climate benefits ranged from ~80% (stover) to 290% (restored prairie) reductions in CO 2 e compared to petroleum and were similar for electric vehicles. With carbon capture and storage (CCS), reductions in emission intensities ranged from 204% (stover) to 416% (restored prairie) for ethanol vehicles and from 329 to 558% for electric vehicles, declining 27 and 15%, respectively, once soil carbon equilibrates within several decades of establishment. Extrapolation based on expected U.S. transportation energy use suggests that, once CCS potential is maximized with CO 2 pipeline infrastructure, negative emissions from bioenergy with CCS for light-duty electric vehicles could capture >900 Tg CO 2 e year –1 in the U.S. In the future, as other renewable electricity sources become more important, electricity production from biomass would offset less fossil fuel electricity, and the advantage of electric over ethanol vehicles would decrease proportionately.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

End-to-End Assessment of a Large Aperture Segmented Ultraviolet Optical Infrared (UVOIR) Telescope Architecture

Key challenges of a future large aperture, segmented Ultraviolet Optical Infrared (UVOIR) Telescope capable of performing a spectroscopic survey of hundreds of Exoplanets will be sufficient stability to achieve 10^-10 contrast measurements and sufficient throughput and sensitivity for high yield Exo-Earth spectroscopic detection. Our team has collectively assessed an optimized end to end architecture including a high throughput coronagraph capable of working with a segmented telescope, a cost-effective and heritage based stable segmented telescope, a control architecture that minimizes the amount of new technologies, and an Exo-Earth yield assessment to evaluate potential performance. These efforts are combined through integrated modeling, coronagraph evaluations, and Exo-Earth yield calculations to assess the potential performance of the selected architecture. In addition, we discusses the scalability of this architecture to larger apertures and the technological tall poles to enabling it.

Feinberg, Lee↗
NASA NTRS1990

Calorimetric determination of thermal parameters for the Li/BrCl in SOCl2 (BCX) chemistry

The heat capacity of a Li-BCX DD-cell was found to be dependent on its state of charge by drop calorimetry measurements. The method of drop calorimetry involves measuring the energy (joules) gained or lost from a sample that is transferred from a bath at temperature A to one at temperature B. The thermoneutral potential is defined as the cell potential where the cell electrochemical reactions are neither exothermic nor endothermic. A Hart scientific calorimeter system, Model No. S77XX, designed for heat conduction calorimetry and drop calorimetry was used. Calorimetric analysis yielded a thermoneutral potential of 4.14 volts and a cell heat capacity dependent on the state of charge.

Darcy, Eric C.↗
NASA NTRS1980

An interaction algorithm for prediction of mean and fluctuating velocities in two-dimensional aerodynamic wake flows

A theoretical analysis is presented yielding sets of partial differential equations for determination of turbulent aerodynamic flowfields in the vicinity of an airfoil trailing edge. A four phase interaction algorithm is derived to complete the analysis. Following input, the first computational phase is an elementary viscous corrected two dimensional potential flow solution yielding an estimate of the inviscid-flow induced pressure distribution. Phase C involves solution of the turbulent two dimensional boundary layer equations over the trailing edge, with transition to a two dimensional parabolic Navier-Stokes equation system describing the near-wake merging of the upper and lower surface boundary layers. An iteration provides refinement of the potential flow induced pressure coupling to the viscous flow solutions. The final phase is a complete two dimensional Navier-Stokes analysis of the wake flow in the vicinity of a blunt-bases airfoil. A finite element numerical algorithm is presented which is applicable to solution of all partial differential equation sets of inviscid-viscous aerodynamic interaction algorithm. Numerical results are discussed.

Baker, A. J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Single-Point Extrapolation to the Complete Basis Set Limit through Deep Learning

Machine learning (ML) offers an attractive method for making predictions about molecular systems while circumventing the need to run expensive electronic structure calculations. Once trained on ab initio data, the promise of ML is to deliver accurate predictions of molecular properties that were previously computationally infeasible. In this work, we develop and train a graph neural network model to correct the basis set incompleteness error (BSIE) between a small and large basis set at the RHF and B3LYP levels of theory. Our results show that, when compared to fitting to the total potential, an ML model fitted to correct the BSIE is better at generalizing to systems not seen during training. We test this ability by training on single molecules while evaluating on molecular complexes. We also show that ensemble models yield better behaved potentials in situations where the training data is insufficient. However, even when only fitting to the BSIE, acceptable performance is only achieved when the training data sufficiently resemble the systems one wants to make predictions on. As a result, the test error of the final model trained to predict the difference between the cc-pVDZ and cc-pV5Z potential is 0.184 kcal/mol for the B3LYP density functional, and the ensemble model accurately reproduces the large basis set interaction energy curves on the S66x8 dataset.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

The domestic and international implications of future climate for U.S. agriculture in GCAM

Agriculture yields are susceptible to changes in future temperature, precipitation, and other Earth system factors. Future changes to these physical Earth system attributes and their effects on agricultural yields are highly uncertain. United States agricultural producers will be affected by such changes whether they occur domestically or internationally (via international commodity markets). How important to U.S. agriculture are domestic changes due to climate compared to those occurring externally? Here we show that potential direct impacts to United States agriculture have financial impacts on U.S. producers that are roughly similar in magnitude but opposite in sign to impacts on U.S. producers due to changes in other parts of the world. This finding is robust across application of a wide range of potential future crop yield impacts applied to a multi-sector global integrated assessment model. Therefore, when examining country-specific impacts, it is necessary to model both the domestic and international impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2008

Characterizing ISS Charging Environments with On-Board Ionospheric Plasma Measurements

Charging of the International Space Station (ISS) is dominated by interactions of the biased United States (US) 160 volt solar arrays with the relatively high density, low temperature plasma environment in low Earth orbit. Conducting surfaces on the vehicle structure charge negative relative to the ambient plasma environment because ISS structure is grounded to the negative end of the US solar arrays. Transient charging peaks reaching potentials of some tens of volts negative controlled by photovoltaic array current collection typically occur at orbital sunrise and sunset as well as near orbital noon. In addition, surface potentials across the vehicle structure vary due to an induced v x B (dot) L voltage generated by the high speed motion of the conducting structure across the Earth's magnetic field. Induced voltages in low Earth orbit are typically only approx.0.4 volts/meter but the approx.100 meter scale dimensions of the ISS yield maximum induced potential variations ofapprox.40 volts across the vehicle. Induced voltages are variable due to the orientation of the vehicle structure and orbital velocity vector with respect to the orientation of the Earth's magnetic field along the ISS orbit. In order to address the need to better understand the ISS spacecraft potential and plasma environments, NASA funded development and construction of the Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU) which was deployed on an ISS starboard truss arm in August 2006. The suite of FPMU instruments includes two Langmuir probes, a plasma impedance probe, and a potential probe for use in in-situ monitoring of electron temperatures and densities and the vehicle potential relative to the plasma environment. This presentation will describe the use of the FPMU to better characterize interactions of the ISS with the space environment, changes in ISS charging as the vehicle configuration is modified during ISS construction, and contributions of FPMU vehicle potential and plasma environment measurements to investigations of on-orbit anomalies in ISS systems.

Minow, Jospeh I.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Testing and Analysis of NEXT Ion Engine Discharge Cathode Assembly Wear

Experimental and analytical investigations were conducted to predict the wear of the discharge cathode keeper in the NASA Evolutionary Xenon Thruster. The ion current to the keeper was found to be highly dependent upon the beam current, and the average beam current density was nearly identical to that of the NSTAR thruster for comparable beam current density. The ion current distribution was highly peaked toward the keeper orifice. A deterministic wear assessment predicted keeper orifice erosion to the same diameter as the cathode tube after processing 375 kg of xenon. A rough estimate of discharge cathode assembly life limit due to sputtering indicated that the current design exceeds the qualification goal of 405 kg. Probabilistic wear analysis showed that the plasma potential and the sputter yield contributed most to the uncertainty in the wear assessment. It was recommended that fundamental experimental and modeling efforts focus on accurately describing the plasma potential and the sputtering yield.

Domonkos, Matthew T.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Prediction of Redox Potentials for Different Oxidation States of U, Np, Pu, and Am in Alkaline Aqueous Solution

The redox potentials for U, Np, Pu, and Am for oxidation states +III up to +VIII in alkaline aqueous solutions were predicted using density functional theory (DFT) and small-core pseudopotentials and their basis sets, with a hybrid explicit/implicit solvent model using SHE = 4.28 V. For each oxidation state, various oxo/hydroxo complexes were evaluated resulting in a variety of one-electron redox pathways. For An(VIII/VII) couples, the predicted redox potentials for the [An(VIII)O 5 (OH)] -3 /[An(VII)O 4 (OH) 2 ] -3 , or [An(VIII)O 4 (OH) 2 ] -2 /[An(VII)O 4 (OH) 2 ] -3 couples are in good agreement with existing estimates. For An(VII/VI) redox couples, all couples, particularly [An(VII)O 4 (OH) 2 ] -3 /[An(VI)O 2 (OH) 4 ] -2 , were in agreement with experimental values for U, Np, and Pu, but the results for Am showed larger differences from the estimated potentials. The An(VI/V) couples were consistent with experiment for dioxo/tetrahydroxo couples, and the An(V/IV) couples showed acceptable agreement based on actinide-specific couples, with neutral hydroxides often favored in the +IV state. The An(IV/III) couples were consistent with literature values when modeled as soluble neutral hydroxides. The use of our approach yielded calculated redox potentials that were within ±0.2 V from experimental or estimated values consistent with our prior calculations on redox potentials of actinides from Ac to Am in acidic aqueous solutions. Finally, as a result, this supports the robustness of our DFT-based methodology for predicting actinide redox potentials, offering valuable insights for actinide chemistry in aqueous solutions.

Actinides↗
NASA NTRS2016

Similar Estimates of Temperature Impacts on Global Wheat Yield by Three Independent Methods

The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

Climate impacts↗
NASA NTRS2021

Future Climate Change Significantly Alters Interannual Wheat Yield Variability Over Half of Harvested Areas

Climate change affects the spatial and temporal distribution of crop yields, which can critically impair food security across scales. A number of previous studies have assessed the impact of climate change on mean crop yield and future food availability, but much less is known about potential future changes in interannual yield variability. Here, we evaluate future changes in relative interannual global wheat yield variability (the coefficient of variation (CV)) at 0.25° spatial resolution for two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A multi-model ensemble of crop model emulators based on global process-based models is used to evaluate responses to changes in temperature, precipitation, and CO2. The results indicate that over 60% of harvested areas could experience significant changes in interannual yield variability under a high-emission scenario by the end of the 21st century (2066–2095). About 31% and 44% of harvested areas are projected to undergo significant reductions of relative yield variability under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. In turn, wheat yield is projected to become more unstable across 23% (RCP4.5) and 18% (RCP8.5) of global harvested areas—mostly in hot or low fertilizer input regions, including some of the major breadbasket countries. The major driver of increasing yield CV change is the increase in yield standard deviation, whereas declining yield CV is mostly caused by stronger increases in mean yield than in the standard deviation. Changes in temperature are the dominant cause of change in wheat yield CVs, having a greater influence than changes in precipitation in 53% and 72% of global harvested areas by the end of the century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. This research highlights the potential challenges posed by increased yield variability and the need for tailored regional adaptation strategies.

Climate change↗
DOE OSTI2025

Switchgrass ( Panicum Virgatum ) and Miscanthus ( Miscanthus × Giganteus ) Long-Term Yield Patterns Reveal Consistent Productivity Declines

Perennial grasses like switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) and miscanthus ( Miscanthus × giganteus ) are expected to supply a substantial amount of the United States bioeconomy's feedstock demand. However, uncertainties around their long-term yields challenge the viability of their potential and limit their wider adoption. To resolve their long-term yield patterns, we analyzed over 200 plantings of switchgrass and miscanthus across Michigan and Wisconsin, USA, measured over 5–15 years. We found a consistent two-phase long-term yield dynamic; during a yield-building phase , peak yields occurred within 4–5 years after planting, followed by a yield-decline phase in which switchgrass and miscanthus lost 30%–47% and 14%–40% of peak yields, respectively. Among the potential drivers of this dynamic and the yield decline, we found that weather conditions had little impact, as the variation across years was not large enough to drive the observed yield differences. Added nitrogen increased peak yields by 10%–20% and attenuated the yield decline by 20%–50%. However, since fertilized stands still showed a yield decline, other factors became limiting as stands aged. This conserved long-term yield dynamic has direct implications on management. A farm-to-gate economic analysis suggests replanting switchgrass and miscanthus 5 and 9 years following their peak yields maximizes profit over a 30-year time horizon. Results call for further management and breeding strategies to mitigate the yield-decline phase, and for reparameterization of global bioenergy models with carbon capture and storage, which may overestimate yields and the economic and environmental benefits of crops grown for bioenergy feedstocks.

bioenergy↗
DOE OSTI2022

Chlorination of uranium metal in molten NaCl-CaCl 2 via bubbling HCl

Molten chloride salt fast reactors (MCFRs) will require UCl 3 dissolved in molten salt mixtures as fuel for nuclear fission. For infusing the salt with UCl 3 , bubbling HCl into NaCl-CaCl 2 in contact with U metal was investigated. The reaction was run up to 9 h and yielded U concentration up to 0.652 wt.%. Open circuit potential between a W electrode and Ag/AgCl reference electrode yielded a potential consistent with uranium existing as U(III) in the salt. Furthermore, this demonstrates that HCl can be a very effective chlorinating agent to infuse MCFR fuel with UCl 3 starting from U metal.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Yield and Survival of 19 Cultivars of Willow (Salix spp.) Biomass Crops over Eight Rotations

This study reveals patterns of yield and survival of short-rotation coppice (SRC) willow cultivars over eight rotations (1993–2019). Cultivars fell into four broad categories: commercial, released, stable, and decline. SV1, the singular cultivar that advanced to commercial deployments, had first-rotation yields of 8.9 Mg ha−1 a−1, peaking at 15.2 Mg ha−1 a−1 by the fourth. Mean yields from rotations 2–8 were still 36% above first-rotation yields, confirming the commercial potential for this cultivar over 26 years. The released group (four cultivars) had stable yields over six rotations (approximately 3 to 7 Mg ha−1 a−1), rising to match commercial yields (10 Mg ha−1 a−1) between the sixth and eighth rotation. Most of the cultivars were in the stable group that had relatively consistent yields over time. First-rotation yields in this group were approximately 5 Mg ha−1 a−1, and average yield increased by 23% for rotations 2–8. The two cultivars in the decline group were impacted by disease and browsing that lowered survival and growth. These findings are crucial for understanding willow systems’ potential over their full lifespan as a bioenergy crop, which is a crucial input into yield, economic, and environmental models.

Santucci, Shane↗
NASA NTRS2023

Climate Variability and Simultaneous Breadbasket Yield Shocks as Observed in Long-Term Yield Records

That climate variability and change can potentially force multiple simultaneous breadbasket crop yield shocks has been established. But research quantifying the mechanisms behind such simultaneous shocks has been constrained by short records of crop yields. Here we compile a dataset of subnational crop yields in 25 countries dating back to 1900 to study the frequency and trends in multiple breadbasket yield shocks and how large-scale climate anomalies on interannual timescales have affected multiple breadbasket yield shocks over the last century. We find that major simultaneous breadbasket yield shocks have occurred in at least three, four, or five of nine breadbaskets 10.3%, 2.3% and 1.1% of the time for maize and 18.4%, 4.6% and 2.3% of the time for wheat. Furthermore, we find that multiple breadbasket yield shocks decreased in frequency even as those breadbaskets experience increasingly frequent climate-related shocks. For both maize and wheat breadbaskets, there were fewer simultaneous yield shocks during the 1975–2017 time period as compared to 1931–1975. Finally, we find that interannual modes of climate variability - such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - have all affected the relative probability of simultaneous yield shocks in pairs of breadbaskets by up to 20–40% in both maize and wheat breadbaskets. While past literature has focused on the effects of ENSO, we find that at the global scale the NAO affects the overall number of wheat yield shocks most strongly despite only affecting northern hemisphere breadbaskets.

agriculture↗