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At least 235 records · Page 13

Environmental Conditions Affecting Global Mesoscale Convective System Occurrence

Abstract The ERA5 environments of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), tracked from satellite observations, are assessed over a 20-yr period. The use of a large set of MCS tracks allows us to robustly test the sensitivity of the results to factors such as region, latitude, and diurnal cycle. We aim to provide novel information on environments of observed MCSs for assessments of global atmospheric models and to improve their ability to simulate MCSs. Statistical analysis of all tracked MCSs is performed in two complementary ways. First, we investigate the environments when an MCS has occurred at different spatial scales before and after MCS formation. Several environmental variables are found to show marked changes before MCS initiation, particularly over land. The vertically integrated moisture flux convergence shows a robust signal across different regions and when considering MCS initiation diurnal cycle. We also found spatial scale dependence of the environments between 200 and 500 km, providing new evidence of a natural length scale for use with MCS parameterization. In the second analysis, the likelihood of MCS occurrence for given environmental conditions is evaluated, by considering all environments and determining the probability of being in an MCS core or shield region. These are compared to analogous non-MCS environments, allowing discrimination between conditions suitable for MCS and non-MCS occurrence. Three environmental variables are found to be useful predictors of MCS occurrence: total column water vapor, midlevel relative humidity, and total column moisture flux convergence. Such relations could be used as trigger conditions for the parameterization of MCSs, thereby strengthening the dependence of the MCS scheme on the environment. Significance Statement Large storm systems called mesoscale convective systems form across Earth. These are collections of thunderstorms, with associated high-level clouds that produce substantial, lighter rainfall and modulate Earth’s energy balance. They produce hazardous weather conditions, such as floods and high winds, and are responsible for a high percentage of rainfall in many regions globally. We investigate the environmental conditions under which they form, so that we can understand the spatial extent of the environment which is important for their formation, and also where and when the effects of these storms might be felt. The novel information generated here should help improve the representation of these storms in weather and climate models, improving the prediction of rainfall, thunderclouds, and high-level clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The crystal structure of Fe2S at 90 GPa based on single-crystal X-ray diffraction techniques

The Fe-S system was explored in a laser-heated diamond-anvil cell at 89(2) GPa and 2380(120) K to better understand the phase stability of Fe 2 S. Upon temperature quenching, crystallites of Fe 2 S were identified, and their structure was investigated using single-crystal X-ray diffraction techniques. At these conditions, Fe 2 S adopts the C23 structure (anti-PbCl 2 , Co 2 P) with space group Pnma (Z = 4). This structure consists of columns of corner-sharing, FeS 4 tetrahedra, and columns of edge-sharing FeS 5 square pyramids linked along edges in the b direction. Sulfur is in ninefold coordination with Fe. This work marks the first high-pressure structural solution and refinement of Fe 2 S synthesized in a multigrain Fe+FeS sample at 90 GPa and 2400 K and establishes the stability of C23 Fe 2 S at these conditions. A previous powder diffraction study reports an orthorhombic Fe 2 S phase with a C37, Co 2 Si-like unit cell above 190 GPa. A C23–C37 structural transition is inferred to explain the previously observed unit-cell parameters at higher pressures and temperatures. These results highlight the utility of applying single-crystal X-ray diffraction techniques to high P-T multigrain samples to explore the structural properties of iron-rich phases in Earth and planetary cores.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Volcanology, Geochemistry, and Petrology Perspectives on Integrated, Coordinated, Open, Networked (ICON) Science

This article is composed of a commentary about the state of Integrated, Coordinated, Open, and Networked (ICON) principles in Volcanology, Geochemistry, and Petrology (VGP), and discussion on the opportunities and challenges of adopting them. VGP encompasses a broad field that addresses volcanic, magmatic, hydrothermal, geomicrobial systems; process investigations that span the physical, geochemical and biological realms, including planetary geology; and one that is extensively supported by state-of-the-art research facilities. We suggest that an open, inclusive, collaborative and evolving model of an international coordinated network is critical to answering the most pressing challenges in VGP. In this commentary piece, we begin to discuss the elements of, challenges to, and path forward in developing such a model. For this team, ICON means collaboration, equitable access to data for the entire scientific community, and forging of partnerships that potentially contribute to more innovative ways of coordinating and sharing research. It also means bringing more equity to science, by implementing effective measures which consider access to funding, analytical equipment, resources, and mentors. More importantly, ICON to us means having important conversations around what we value in the advancement of science, perhaps exploring outside the idea of meritocracy and evaluating what individual traits can contribute to science outside what has traditionally been considered the norm.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Understanding Processes Controlling the Temporal and Spatial Variations of PBL Structures Over the ARM SGP Site

The surface heat, moisture, and momentum fluxes are transferred to the atmosphere above through the planetary boundary layer (PBL), where vertical mixing due to turbulent eddies of different sizes plays critical roles. Therefore, reliably representing PBL processes in numerical models is critical for weather, climate, and air quality prediction. Currently, there are over ten PBL schemes that are selectable within the advanced research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, indicative of the challenges in capturing the impacts of turbulence within the PBL in models. Further improvements in PBL parameterizations are needed for both weather and climate models, as emphasized in many recent national reports, but require an advanced understanding of the underlying boundary layer processes from observations. This project takes advantage of Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) investments in the atmospheric boundary layer observations and Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) simulations to characterize PBL structures, understand key physical processes controlling the mixed layer development, and to evaluate PBL parameterization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Boundary-Layer-Coupled and Decoupled Clouds in Global Storm-Resolving Models: Comparisons With the ARM Observations

The accurate representation of interactions between clouds and planetary boundary layer (PBL) is a persistent challenge in climate models, critical for simulating surface energy budget. The emergence of kilometer-grid-scale global storm resolving models (GSRMs) offers the potential for enhanced details of PBL processes in these complex interactions. This study evaluates the representation of PBL-coupled and decoupled clouds in nine GSRM simulations against extensive ground-based observations by the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program, across six sites encompassing diverse regimes such as marine and continental environments in tropics and midlatitude. By differentiating coupling based on the relative positions between cloud bases and PBL tops, our analysis focuses on the simulation of PBL height, cloud frequency, position and vertical extent. The GSRMs generally exhibit commendable agreements with observed cloud structures and PBL diurnal cycles across different ARM sites. In contrast to the relatively consistent representation of decoupled clouds, discrepancies exist between the simulated and the observed coupled clouds, particularly in areas of intense convection, for example, over tropical rainforests and mountainous regions. These biases are probably associated with the models' tendency to underestimate the boundary layer humidity and the frequency of coupled clouds within different ranges of PBL heights. This study underscores the importance for continuous improvements in the representation of boundary layer and convection within these global kilometer-grid-scale models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global energy spectrum of the general oceanic circulation

Abstract Advent of satellite altimetry brought into focus the pervasiveness of mesoscale eddies $${{{{{{{\bf{{{{{{{{\mathcal{O}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}({100})$$ O ( 100 ) km in size, which are the ocean’s analogue of weather systems and are often regarded as the spectral peak of kinetic energy (KE). Yet, understanding of the ocean’s spatial scales has been derived mostly from Fourier analysis in small "representative” regions that cannot capture the vast dynamic range at planetary scales. Here, we use a coarse-graining method to analyze scales much larger than what had been possible before. Spectra spanning over three decades of length-scales reveal the Antarctic Circumpolar Current as the spectral peak of the global extra-tropical circulation, at ≈ 10 4 km, and a previously unobserved power-law scaling over scales larger than 10 3 km. A smaller spectral peak exists at ≈ 300 km associated with mesoscales, which, due to their wider spread in wavenumber space, account for more than 50% of resolved surface KE globally. Seasonal cycles of length-scales exhibit a characteristic lag-time of ≈ 40 days per octave of length-scales such that in both hemispheres, KE at 10 2 km peaks in spring while KE at 10 3 km peaks in late summer. These results provide a new window for understanding the multiscale oceanic circulation within Earth’s climate system, including the largest planetary scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA analysis of space mission options for the 2025 planetary defense conference hypothetical asteroid impact threat scenario

The 2025 Planetary Defense Conference (PDC) hypothetical asteroid impact threat exercise is being conducted in coordination with the United Nations-endorsed Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), exercising SMPAG's processes for assessing space mission options and communicating to decision makers. Here, in this paper, we describe the work performed by our NASA-led team and present the results we contributed to the SMPAG effort for the exercise. Our NASA-led team assessed mission options for asteroid reconnaissance (flyby and rendezvous), deflection, and robust disruption using several viable techniques: kinetic impactors, ion beam deflection, and nuclear explosive devices. Our simulations and analyses considered how much change-in-velocity an asteroid can tolerate before fragmentation onset, and we worked towards establishing requirements for robustly disrupting an asteroid. Heuristics informed by the simulation results are incorporated into optimization of deflection and disruption mission campaign options. Finally, we make some observations about useful generalizations from these results with potential applicability to any planetary defense scenario.

Asteroid deflection↗

White paper on NIF Discovery Science and frontier regimes of HEDP

Over the past two decades, experimental capabilities at high energy density (HED) facilities such as the National Ignition Facility (NIF), Omega, and Omega EP lasers, and the Z pulsed power facility are able to make precision measurements of fundamental quantities such as equations of state (EOS), material phase, opacities, and ionization levels Z. Flow based quantities are also being studied, such as hydrodynamic instabilities, evolution into turbulence, turbulent dynamo magnetic field amplification, magnetic reconnection; plasma instabilities, plasma wakefield particle acceleration; and relativistic plasma phenomena, such as (e + ,e - ) pair creation. Experimental regimes can be created that reproduce conditions relevant to planetary and exoplanet interiors, stellar interiors, the interiors of brown dwarfs, and the envelope conditions of white dwarf stars. Diagnostic techniques have been developed hand in hand with these new experimental regimes that can be accessed. In this white paper, a brief summary of key experimental achievements from the NIF Discovery Science (basic science) program will be presented; followed by a discussion of current challenges, needs, and potential paths forward.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Proton Collective Quantum Tunneling Induces Anomalous Thermal Conductivity of Ice under Pressure

Proton tunneling is believed to be nonlocal in ice, but its range has been shown to be limited to only a few molecules. Here, we measured the thermal conductivity of ice under pressure up to 50 GPa and found it increases with pressure until 20 GPa but decreases at higher pressures. We attribute this nonmonotonic thermal conductivity to the collective tunneling of protons at high pressures, supported by large-scale quantum molecular dynamics simulations. The collective tunneling loops span several picoseconds in time and are as large as nanometers in space, which match the phonon periods and wavelengths, leading to strong phonon scattering at high pressures. Finally, our results show direct evidence of global quantum motion existing in high-pressure ice and provide a new perspective to understanding the coupling between phonon propagation and atomic tunneling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Warming Pattern over the Northern Hemisphere Midlatitudes in Boreal Summer 1979–2020

Abstract Significant surface air temperature warming during summer 1979–2020 is not uniformly distributed in the northern midlatitudes over land but rather is confined to several longitudinal sectors including Europe, central Siberia and Mongolia, and both coasts of North America. These hot spots are accompanied by a chain of high pressure ridges from an anomalous, circumglobal Rossby wave train in the upper troposphere. From reanalysis data and several baseline experiments from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we find that the circulation trend pattern is associated with fluctuations of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation. The phase shift of AMV in the 1990s is particularly noteworthy for accelerating warming averaged over the northern midlatitude land. The amplitude of the observed trend in both surface air temperature and the upper-level geopotential height generally falls beyond the range of multidecadal trends simulated by the CMIP6 preindustrial control runs, supporting the likelihood that anthropogenic forcing played a critical role in the observed trend. On the other hand, the fidelity of the simulated low-frequency modes of variability and their teleconnections, especially on multidecadal time scales, is difficult to assess because of the relatively short observational records. Our mechanistic modeling results indicate that synoptic eddy–mean flow interaction is a key to the formation of the anomalous wave train but how the multidecadal modes can modulate the synoptic eddies through atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions remains poorly understood. This gap in our knowledge makes it challenging to quantify the roles of the low-frequency modes and external forcings in causing the observed multidecadal trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Coupled Lake‐Atmosphere‐Land Physics Uncertainties in a Great Lakes Regional Climate Model

Abstract This study develops a surrogate‐based method to assess the uncertainty within a convective permitting integrated modeling system of the Great Lakes region, arising from interacting physics parameterizations across the lake, atmosphere, and land surface. Perturbed physics ensembles of the model during the 2018 summer are used to train a neural network surrogate model to predict lake surface temperature (LST) and near‐surface air temperature (T2m). Average physics uncertainties are determined to be 1.5C for LST and T2m over land, and 1.9C for T2m over lake, but these have significant spatiotemporal variations. We find that atmospheric physics parameterizations alone are the dominant sources of uncertainty (45%–53%), while lake and land parameterizations account for 33% and 38% of the uncertainty of LST and T2m over land respectively. Interactions of atmosphere physics parameterizations with those of the land and lake contribute to an additional 13%–17% of the total variance. LST and T2m over the lake are more uncertain in the deeper northern lakes, particularly during the rapid warming phase that occurs in late spring/early summer. The LST uncertainty increases with sensitivity to the lake model's surface wind stress scheme. T2m over land is more uncertain over forested areas in the north, where it is most sensitive to the land surface model, than the more agricultural land in the south, where it is most sensitive to the atmospheric planetary boundary and surface layer scheme. Uncertainty also increases in the southwest during multiday temperature declines with higher sensitivity to the land surface model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

BD+44°493: Chemo-dynamical Analysis and Constraints on Companion Planetary Masses from WIYN/NEID Spectroscopy

In this work, we present high-resolution (R ~ 100,000), high signal-to-noise ratio (S/N ~ 800) spectroscopic observations for the well-known, bright, extremely metal-poor, carbon-enhanced star BD+44°493. We determined chemical abundances and upper limits for 17 elements from WIYN/NEID data, complemented with 11 abundances redetermined from Subaru and Hubble data, using the new, more accurate, stellar atmospheric parameters calculated in this work. Our analysis suggests that BD+44°493 is a low-mass (0.83 M ⊙ ), old (12.1–13.2 Gyr) second-generation star likely formed from a gas cloud enriched by a single metal-free 20.5 M ⊙ Population III star in the early Universe. With a disk-like orbit, BD+44°493 does not appear to be associated with any major merger event in the early history of the Milky Way. From the precision radial-velocity NEID measurements (median absolute deviation = 16 m s –1 ), we were able to constrain companion planetary masses around BD+44°493 and rule out the presence of planets as small as $m\sin i=2$ M J out to periods of 100 days. This study opens a new avenue of exploration for the intersection between stellar archaeology and exoplanet science using NEID.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

An Open Benchmark of One Million High-Fidelity Cislunar Trajectories

Cislunar space spans from geosynchronous altitudes to beyond the Moon and will underpin future exploration, science, and security operations. We describe and release an open dataset of one million numerically propagated cislunar trajectories generated with the open-source Space Situational Awareness Python package (SSAPy). The model includes high-degree Earth/Moon gravity, solar gravity, and Earth/Sun radiation pressure; other planetary gravities are omitted by design for computational efficiency. Initial conditions uniformly sample commonly used osculating-element ranges, and each trajectory is propagated for up to six years under a single, fixed start epoch. The dataset is intended as a reusable benchmark for method development (e.g., space domain awareness, navigation, and machine-learning pipelines), a reference library for statistical studies of orbit families, and a starting point for community-driven extensions (e.g., alternative epochs). We report empirically observed stability trends (e.g., a band near ~5 GEO and persistence of some co-orbital classes including L4/L5 librators) as dataset descriptors rather than new dynamical results. The chief contribution is the scale, fidelity, organization (CSV/HDF5 with full state time series and metadata), and open availability, which together lower the barrier to comparative and data-driven studies in the cislunar regime.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Facilitating better and faster simulations of aerosol-cloud interactions in Earth system models

Focal Area(s): 1. Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising a hierarchy of models. 2. Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI. Science Challenge: One major challenge that Earth system models (ESMs) face in providing credible prediction of the Earth system and its water cycle characteristics (e.g., mean state, variability, and extreme events) is to accurately simulate aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI). The physical, chemical, and dynamical processes affecting ACI are extremely complex and they range from nanoscale to planetary scale. In each model development cycle, scientists spend significant efforts investigating model deficiencies and uncertainties associated with aerosols (e.g., emissions, chemical processes, aerosol microphysics, and transport) and clouds (e.g., macrophysics, microphysics, turbulence, and large-scale circulation) in order to develop improved treatments. However, despite decades of active research, ACI is still a major source of uncertainty in climate projections, even though great progress has been made. Specific scientific challenges include: (i) Parameterizations are developed based on limited data; (ii) The complexity of a parameterization required for accurate predictions is not understood; (iii) Incomplete and unknown physics leads to errors in the fully coupled Earth system; and (iv) Complex physics is computationally too expensive to employ in ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Microbially induced precipitation of silica by anaerobic methane-oxidizing consortia and implications for microbial fossil preservation

Authigenic carbonate minerals can preserve biosignatures of microbial anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) in the rock record. It is not currently known whether the microorganisms that mediate sulfate-coupled AOM—often occurring as multicelled consortia of anaerobic methanotrophic archaea (ANME) and sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB)—are preserved as microfossils. Electron microscopy of ANME-SRB consortia in methane seep sediments has shown that these microorganisms can be associated with silicate minerals such as clays [Chen et al., Sci. Rep. 4, 1–9 (2014)], but the biogenicity of these phases, their geochemical composition, and their potential preservation in the rock record is poorly constrained. Long-term laboratory AOM enrichment cultures in sediment-free artificial seawater [Yu et al., Appl. Environ. Microbiol. 88, e02109-21 (2022)] resulted in precipitation of amorphous silicate particles (~200 nm) within clusters of exopolymer-rich AOM consortia from media undersaturated with respect to silica, suggestive of a microbially mediated process. The use of techniques like correlative fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH), scanning electron microscopy with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (SEM-EDS), and nanoscale secondary ion mass spectrometry (nanoSIMS) on AOM consortia from methane seep authigenic carbonates and sediments further revealed that they are enveloped in a silica-rich phase similar to the mineral phase on ANME-SRB consortia in enrichment cultures. Like in cyanobacteria [Moore et al., Geology 48, 862–866 (2020)], the Si-rich phases on ANME-SRB consortia identified here may enhance their preservation as microfossils. Finally, the morphology of these silica-rich precipitates, consistent with amorphous-type clay-like spheroids formed within organic assemblages, provides an additional mineralogical signature that may assist in the search for structural remnants of microbial consortia in rocks which formed in methane-rich environments from Earth and other planetary bodies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Biermann-Battery-Driven Magnetized Collisionless Shock Precursors in Laser-Produced Plasmas

This Letter reports the first complete observation of magnetized collisionless shock precursors formed through the compression of Biermann-battery magnetic fields in laser produced plasmas. At OMEGA, lasers produce a supersonic CH plasma flow which is magnetized with Biermann-battery magnetic fields. The plasma flow collides with an unmagnetized hydrogen gas jet plasma to create a magnetized shock precursor. The situation where the flowing plasma carries the magnetic field is similar to the Venusian bow shock. Imaging 2⁢𝜔 Thomson scattering confirms that the interaction is collisionless and shows density and temperature jumps. Proton radiographs have regions of strong deflections and FLASH magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations show the presence of Biermann fields in the Thomson scattering region. Electrons are accelerated to energies of up to 100 keV in a power-law spectrum. Here, OSIRIS particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations, initialized with measured parameters, show the formation of a magnetized shock precursor and corroborate the experimental observables.

High-energy-density plasmas↗