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At least 235 records · Page 13

Probability Functions for Random Responses: Prediction of Peaks, Fatigue Damage, and Catastrophic Failures

This report reviews a number of theoretical matters in random process theory which can be applied to physical problems such as predicting peaks, structural fatigue damage, and catastrophic structural failures. The presentation emphasizes the basic assumptions which are involved, and discusses how to properly interpret the theoretical results. Various engineering examples are given as illustrations.

FATIGUE↗

Fundamental Technology Development for Gas-Turbine Engine Health Management

Integrated vehicle health management technologies promise to dramatically improve the safety of commercial aircraft by reducing system and component failures as causal and contributing factors in aircraft accidents. To realize this promise, fundamental technology development is needed to produce reliable health management components. These components include diagnostic and prognostic algorithms, physics-based and data-driven lifing and failure models, sensors, and a sensor infrastructure including wireless communications, power scavenging, and electronics. In addition, system assessment methods are needed to effectively prioritize development efforts. Development work is needed throughout the vehicle, but particular challenges are presented by the hot, rotating environment of the propulsion system. This presentation describes current work in the field of health management technologies for propulsion systems for commercial aviation.

Mercer, Carolyn R.↗

Modeling Time to Failure in Potential-Induced Degradation of Silicon Solar Modules based on Quantitative Sodium Kinetics

We present a physics-based simulation environment for the prediction of potential-induced-degradation (PID) failure time in silicon solar modules. Our model is based on experimental sodium migration kinetics obtained from our recently developed trap-corrected bias-stress-temperature method and from secondary ion mass spectrometry measurements. Furthermore, we model sodium migration to stacking faults and subsequent formation of conductive pathways through the p-n junction, which causes a decrease of the shunt resistance and loss of efficiency.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Effects of fabric architectures on mechanical and damage behaviors in carbon/epoxy woven composites under multiaxial stress states

The mechanical properties and damage evolutions of carbon/epoxy woven fabric composites with three different fabric architectures, including one plain weave and two twill weave patterns, are experimentally investigated under multiaxial stress states. In particular, the effects of weave patterns are investigated by monotonic and cyclic off-axis tension tests. Both elastic modulus and strength degrade remarkably with increasing off-axis loading angle, while Poisson's ratio is much higher than that measured from on-axis tests and increases with loading strain gradually. Different fabric architectures show limited effects on the modulus and strength under multiaxial stress states, and they are well predicted by transformation equation and Tsai-Wu failure criteria, respectively. However, significantly different failure behaviors are observed in three fabric composites, and microstructure observation shows that fabric architecture affects the stress concentration and the damage development. Smaller crimp ratio and compacted structure postpone the damage development but result in more abrupt failure under multiaxial stress states.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Using a physics-informed neural network and fault zone acoustic monitoring to predict lab earthquakes

Abstract Predicting failure in solids has broad applications including earthquake prediction which remains an unattainable goal. However, recent machine learning work shows that laboratory earthquakes can be predicted using micro-failure events and temporal evolution of fault zone elastic properties. Remarkably, these results come from purely data-driven models trained with large datasets. Such data are equivalent to centuries of fault motion rendering application to tectonic faulting unclear. In addition, the underlying physics of such predictions is poorly understood. Here, we address scalability using a novel Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN). Our model encodes fault physics in the deep learning loss function using time-lapse ultrasonic data. PINN models outperform data-driven models and significantly improve transfer learning for small training datasets and conditions outside those used in training. Our work suggests that PINN offers a promising path for machine learning-based failure prediction and, ultimately for improving our understanding of earthquake physics and prediction.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Steady detonation propagation in thin channels with strong confinement

We examine asymptotically the dynamics of two-dimensional, steady detonation wave propagation and failure for a strongly confined high explosive (HE), in which the width of the explosive is small relative to the reaction zone length. An energy balance equation is derived, which shows how the longitudinal acceleration of subsonic flow behind the detonation shock is influenced both by chemical reaction and by the effects of HE boundary streamline deflection, specifically via the induced rate of change of mass flux through the detonation wave. The latter serves to either counteract or reinforce the acceleration of longitudinal flow, depending on the sign of the gradient of the boundary streamline deflection at the detonation shock. The analysis is valid for general equations of state and chemical reaction rates in the HE. The asymptotically derived form of the energy equation represents an eigenvalue problem for the determination of the steady detonation propagation speed, solved via a shooting method. We explore specific results for ideal and stiffened equations of state, along with a pressure-dependent reaction rate for which changes in the pressure exponent and reaction order are also studied. We consider the influences of both straight and curved HE boundary streamline shapes. The asymptotic analysis reveals significant physical insights into how detonation propagation and failure are affected by strong confinement.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Failure Criteria for FRP Laminates in Plane Stress

A new set of six failure criteria for fiber reinforced polymer laminates is described. Derived from Dvorak's fracture mechanics analyses of cracked plies and from Puck's action plane concept, the physically-based criteria, denoted LaRC03, predict matrix and fiber failure accurately without requiring curve-fitting parameters. For matrix failure under transverse compression, the fracture plane is calculated by maximizing the Mohr-Coulomb effective stresses. A criterion for fiber kinking is obtained by calculating the fiber misalignment under load, and applying the matrix failure criterion in the coordinate frame of the misalignment. Fracture mechanics models of matrix cracks are used to develop a criterion for matrix in tension and to calculate the associated in-situ strengths. The LaRC03 criteria are applied to a few examples to predict failure load envelopes and to predict the failure mode for each region of the envelope. The analysis results are compared to the predictions using other available failure criteria and with experimental results. Predictions obtained with LaRC03 correlate well with the experimental results.

Davila, Carlos G.↗

A Mathematical Framework for Representing Cyber-Physical System Interdependencies and Resilience

U.S. critical infrastructure is increasingly composed of integrated cyber-physical systems (CPS) whose components are operationally interdependent. These interdependencies can create additional vulnerabilities beyond those that are typically evaluated through independent physical and cyber risk assessments. These additional vulnerabilities, previously undetected at the sub-system and/or component level, could cause cascading effects across both the physical and cyber domains that could lead to infrastructure disruption or failure. This paper will review an initial mathematical framework developed to help understand the dynamics of these interfacing physical and cyber components at a holistic system level. The resulting framework also provides a method for modeling and assessing the resilience of CPS in complex and adaptive systems. It frames the system in terms of mission performance and the potential effects to performance caused by attacks that are cyber, physical, or blended in nature. The framework utilizes a systems-based, state-space modeling approach to reason about risk, resilience, and interdependencies in CPS. Probabilities are applied to each CPS component regarding a threat (both man-made and natural) and the likelihood of that particular component being impacted, along with indirect impact to other interdependent components. These component-level impacts from threats then translate into mission-level impact and systemic state change.

Brigantic, Robert T.↗

Data-Driven Anomaly Detection Performance for the Ares I-X Ground Diagnostic Prototype

In this paper, we will assess the performance of a data-driven anomaly detection algorithm, the Inductive Monitoring System (IMS), which can be used to detect simulated Thrust Vector Control (TVC) system failures. However, the ability of IMS to detect these failures in a true operational setting may be related to the realistic nature of how they are simulated. As such, we will investigate both a low fidelity and high fidelity approach to simulating such failures, with the latter based upon the underlying physics. Furthermore, the ability of IMS to detect anomalies that were previously unknown and not previously simulated will be studied in earnest, as well as apparent deficiencies or misapplications that result from using the data-driven paradigm. Our conclusions indicate that robust detection performance of simulated failures using IMS is not appreciably affected by the use of a high fidelity simulation. However, we have found that the inclusion of a data-driven algorithm such as IMS into a suite of deployable health management technologies does add significant value.

Martin, Rodney A.↗

Anticipating water distribution service outages from increasing temperatures

With projected temperature increases and extreme events due to climate change for many regions of the world, characterizing the impacts of these emerging hazards on water distribution systems is necessary to identify and prioritize adaptation strategies for ensuring reliability. To aid decision-making, new insights are needed into how water distribution system reliability to climate-driven heat will change, and the proactive maintenance strategies available to combat failures. To this end, we present the model Perses, a framework that joins a water distribution network hydraulic solver with reliability models of physical assets or components to estimate temperature increase-driven failures and resulting service outages in the long term. A theoretical case study is developed using Phoenix, Arizona temperature profiles, a city with extreme temperatures and a rapidly expanding infrastructure. By end-of-century under hotter futures there are projected to be 1%–5% more pump failures, 2%–5% more PVC pipe failures, and 3%–7% more iron pipe failures (RCP 4.5–8.5) than a baseline historical temperature profile. Service outages, which constitute inadequate pressure for domestic and commercial use are projected to increase by 16%–26% above the baseline under maximum temperature conditions. The exceedance of baseline failures, when compounded across a large metro region, reveals potential challenges for budgeting, management, and maintenance. An exploration of the mitigation potential of adaptation strategies shows that expedited repair times are capable of offsetting the additional outages from climate change, but will come with a cost.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Prediction of carbon nanostructure mechanical properties and the role of defects using machine learning

Graphene-based nanostructures hold immense potential as strong and lightweight materials, however, their mechanical properties such as modulus and strength are difficult to fully exploit due to challenges in atomic-scale engineering. This study presents a database of over 2,000 pristine and defective nanoscale CNT bundles and other graphitic assemblies, inspired by microscopy, with associated stress–strain curves from reactive molecular dynamics (MD) simulations using the reactive INTERFACE force field (IFF-R). These 3D structures, containing up to 80,000 atoms, enable detailed analyses of structure-stiffness-failure relationships. By leveraging the database and physics- and chemistry-informed machine learning (ML), accurate predictions of elastic moduli and tensile strength are demonstrated at speeds 1,000 to 10,000 times faster than efficient MD simulations. Hierarchical Graph Neural Networks with Spatial Information (HS-GNNs) are introduced, which integrate chemistry knowledge. HS-GNNs as well as extreme gradient boosted trees (XGBoost) achieve forecasts of mechanical properties of arbitrary carbon nanostructures with only 3 to 6% mean relative error. The reliability equals experimental accuracy and is up to 20 times higher than other ML methods. Predictions maintain 8 to 18% accuracy for large CNT bundles, CNT junctions, and carbon fiber cross-sections outside the training distribution. The physics- and chemistry-informed HS-GNN works remarkably well for data outside the training range while XGBoost works well with limited training data inside the training range. The carbon nanostructure database is designed for integration with multimodal experimental and simulation data, scalable beyond 100 nm size, and extendable to chemically similar compounds and broader property ranges. The ML approaches have potential for applications in structural materials, nanoelectronics, and carbon-based catalysts.

Winetrout, Jordan J.↗

Practical implementation of the double linear damage rule and damage curve approach for treating cumulative fatigue damage

Simple procedures are presented for treating cumulative fatigue damage under complex loading history using either the damage curve concept or the double linear damage rule. A single equation is provided for use with the damage curve approach; each loading event providing a fraction of damage until failure is presumed to occur when the damage sum becomes unity. For the double linear damage rule, analytical expressions are provided for determining the two phases of life. The procedure involves two steps, each similar to the conventional application of the commonly used linear damage rule. When the sum of cycle ratios based on phase 1 lives reaches unity, phase 1 is presumed complete, and further loadings are summed as cycle ratios on phase 2 lives. When the phase 2 sum reaches unity, failure is presumed to occur. No other physical properties or material constants than those normally used in a conventional linear damage rule analysis are required for application of either of the two cumulative damage methods described. Illustrations and comparisons of both methods are discussed.

Manson, S. S.↗

Study of fatigue durability of advanced composite materials under conditions of accelerated loading

The effect of temperature on the tension-tension fatigue life of the T300/5208 graphite/epoxy angle-ply laminate system was investigated in an effort to develop an acceptable and reliable method of accelerated loading. Typical S log sub 10 N curves were determined experimentally at 25 C, 75 C, and 115 C. The time-temperature superposition principle was employed to find the shift factors of uniaxial fatigue strength, and a general linear equation of S log sub 10 N for shifting purpose was established. The combined techniques of cyclic creep measurements and optical microscopy upon fatigue failure allow some assessment of the possible physical basis of S log 10 N curve shifting. Before fatigue, the laminates at all test temperatures and stress levels undergo a unique damage mechanism during fatigue loading. It is concluded that an accelerated loading method is feasible.

Shih, H. M.↗

Simulations of light scattering in planetary rings

The current status of efforts to model light scattering in the Uranian and Saturnian rings is briefly reviewed, with an emphasis on the treatment of thin, vertically warped, or clumpy rings. Consideration is given to observations of an opposition surge in the rings (indicating that they are physically thick) and possible reasons for the failure of classical models to predict the forward-scattering characteristics of the B and inner A rings of Saturn, the quadrupole brightness variations in the A ring, the increase in reflectivity with optical depth in the A and B rings, the increase in brightness with solar and observer angle in the B ring, and systematic brightness variations in images of the inner Cassini division. It is pointed out that some of these discrepancies are eliminated by the use of a ray-tracing simulation code which determines the singly scattered light from a layer one or many particles thick.

Dones, L.↗

Microstructural design of fiber composites

The optimum performance design of composite microstructures is discussed. The forces driving progress in fiber composites are examined, and recent developments in the mechanics of laminated composites are surveyed, emphasizing thick laminates, hygrothermal effects, and thermal transient effects. The strength of continuous-fiber composites is discussed, presenting analyses of local load redistribution due to fiber breakages and treatments of statistical tensile strength theories. Modes of failure of laminated composites are examined. Elastic, physical, and viscoelastic properties as well as the strength and fracture behavior of short-fiber composites are studied, and it is shown how the performance of composites can be controlled by selecting material systems and their geometric distributions. 2D textile structural composites based on woven, knitted, and braided preforms are considered, and techniques for analyzing and modeling the thermomechanical behavior of 2D textile composites are presented. Recent developments in the processing of 3D textile preforms are introduced and the processing-microstructure relationship is demonstrated. Finite elastic deformation of flexible composites is addressed.

Chou, Tsu-Wei↗

Real-Time Adaptive Control Allocation Applied to a High Performance Aircraft

Abstract This paper presents the development and application of one approach to the control of aircraft with large numbers of control effectors. This approach, referred to as real-time adaptive control allocation, combines a nonlinear method for control allocation with actuator failure detection and isolation. The control allocator maps moment (or angular acceleration) commands into physical control effector commands as functions of individual control effectiveness and availability. The actuator failure detection and isolation algorithm is a model-based approach that uses models of the actuators to predict actuator behavior and an adaptive decision threshold to achieve acceptable false alarm/missed detection rates. This integrated approach provides control reconfiguration when an aircraft is subjected to actuator failure, thereby improving maneuverability and survivability of the degraded aircraft. This method is demonstrated on a next generation military aircraft Lockheed-Martin Innovative Control Effector) simulation that has been modified to include a novel nonlinear fluid flow control control effector based on passive porosity. Desktop and real-time piloted simulation results demonstrate the performance of this integrated adaptive control allocation approach.

Davidson, John B.↗

A Comparison of Filter-based Approaches for Model-based Prognostics

Model-based prognostics approaches use domain knowledge about a system and its failure modes through the use of physics-based models. Model-based prognosis is generally divided into two sequential problems: a joint state-parameter estimation problem, in which, using the model, the health of a system or component is determined based on the observations; and a prediction problem, in which, using the model, the stateparameter distribution is simulated forward in time to compute end of life and remaining useful life. The first problem is typically solved through the use of a state observer, or filter. The choice of filter depends on the assumptions that may be made about the system, and on the desired algorithm performance. In this paper, we review three separate filters for the solution to the first problem: the Daum filter, an exact nonlinear filter; the unscented Kalman filter, which approximates nonlinearities through the use of a deterministic sampling method known as the unscented transform; and the particle filter, which approximates the state distribution using a finite set of discrete, weighted samples, called particles. Using a centrifugal pump as a case study, we conduct a number of simulation-based experiments investigating the performance of the different algorithms as applied to prognostics.

prognostics↗

A Tool for the Risk-Informed Management of Critical Mission Resilience

We describe a methodology and tool for the risk-informed management and planning of mission resilience. By mapping concepts of resilience onto the elements of a streamlined risk model we are able to tap the substantial portfolio of established risk concepts to provide rapid insights in the evaluation and high-level screening of prospective resilience enhancement measures. This provides a risk-informed, levelized basis for the comparison of disparate resilience solutions and the means of establishing preferences. The methodology begins with identification of critical missions met by a site, and establishment of the supporting physical assets. Scenarios that would result in failure of these assets are systematically identified. Each scenario comprises three elements: realization of a hazard or threat resulting in loss of resources (the current focus being on power, natural gas, and water) to the asset, failure of measures in place to protect the asset against those losses, and realization of the consequent impacts. These scenarios are quantified in terms of their probabilities of occurrence and the magnitude of the resultant consequences (mission outage time), allowing risk-prioritization to focus resilience enhancement considerations. What-If? analyses are conducted through adjusting elements of the risk calculation to reflect the deployment of prospective resilience measures, by which means the efficacies of each of those measures can be compared using common risk metrics across diverse resilience strategies. This paper will also describe the insights from example applications.

resilience, risk, risk assesment, energy, water↗