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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Mapping Incidence and Prevalence Peak Data for SIR Modeling Applications

Infectious disease modeling and forecasting have played a key role in helping assess and respond to epidemics and pandemics. Recent work has leveraged data on disease peak infection and peak hospital incidence to fit compartmental models for the purpose of forecasting and describing the dynamics of a disease outbreak. Incorporating these data can greatly stabilize a compartmental model fit on early observations, where slight perturbations in the data may lead to model fits that forecast wildly unrealistic peak infection. We introduce a new method for incorporating historic data on the value and time of peak incidence of hospitalization into the fit for a Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model by formulating the relationship between an SIR model’s starting parameters and peak incidence as a system of two equations that can be solved computationally. We demonstrate how to calculate SIR parameter estimates – which describe disease dynamics such as transmission and recovery rates – using this method, and determine that there is a noticeable loss in accuracy whenever prevalence data is misspecified as incidence data. To exhibit the modeling potential, we update the Dirichlet-Beta State Space modeling framework to use hospital incidence data, as this framework was previously formulated to incorporate only data on total infections. This approach is assessed for practicality in terms of accuracy and speed of computation via simulation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Shallow-Water Habitat in the Lower Columbia River Estuary: A Highly Altered System

Abstract Decreases in shallow-water habitat area (SWHA) in the Lower Columbia River and Estuary (LCRE) have adversely affected salmonid populations. We investigate the causes by hindcasting SWHA from 1928 to 2004, system-wide, based on daily higher high water (HHW) and system hypsometry. Physics-based regression models are used to represent HHW along the system as a function of river inflow, tides, and coastal processes, and hypsometry is used to estimate the associated SWHA. Scenario modeling is employed to attribute SWHA losses to levees, flow regulation, diversion, navigational development, and climate-induced hydrologic change, for subsidence scenarios of up to 2 m, and for 0.5 m fill. For zero subsidence, the system-wide annual-average loss of SWHA is 55 ± 5%, or 51 × 10 5 ha/year; levees have caused the largest decrease ( $${54}_{-14}^{+5}$$ 54 - 14 + 5 %, or ~ 50 × 10 5 ha/year). The loss in SWHA due to operation of the hydropower system is small, but spatially and seasonally variable. During the spring freshet critical to juvenile salmonids, the total SWHA loss was $${63}_{-3}^{+2}$$ 63 - 3 + 2 %, with the hydropower system causing losses of 5–16% (depending on subsidence). Climate change and navigation have caused SWHA losses of $${5}_{-5}^{+16}$$ 5 - 5 + 16 % and $${4}_{-6}^{+14}$$ 4 - 6 + 14 %, respectively, but with high spatial variability; irrigation impacts have been small. Uncertain subsidence causes most of the uncertainty in estimates; the sum of the individual factors exceeds the total loss, because factors interact. Any factor that reduces mean or peak flows (reservoirs, diversion, and climate change) or alters tides and along-channel slope (navigation) becomes more impactful as assumed historical elevations are increased to account for subsidence, while levees matter less.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Atomic masses with machine learning for the astrophysical r process

The astrophysical r process plays a vital role in the production of heavy elements. Modeling of the r process is sensitive to masses and further requires knowledge of masses beyond current experimental reach. Therefore, simulations of the r process offer a unique test bed for predicting mass extrapolations. We take a Machine-Learning (ML) approach to model the masses across the entire chart of nuclides. For the first time, we simulate r-process nucleosynthesis with a physics-based ML mass model. We compare simulated abundances to solar data in order to evaluate the model's performance far from stability. The resulting r-process abundances up to thorium and uranium qualitatively match those of the observed solar system abundance pattern, with the characteristic peaks well positioned. We propagate the mass uncertainties obtained from the ML model to r-process abundance yields to estimate an uncertainty band associated with our approach. The size of the uncertainty band is approximately one order of magnitude which aligns with the uncertainty reported using alternative techniques.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Statistical Study of the Nonthermal Continuum Radiation Beaming Angle Measured by the High Frequency Receiver on Van Allen Probes-A

The nonthermal continuum (NTC) radiation beaming angle is computed over the entire Van Allen Probes-A mission when the spacecraft was in the dawn sector. The conditions in the dawn sector are favorable for the wave vector to lie near/in the spacecraft's spin plane allowing a favorable estimate of the beaming angle, and the dawn sector is also advantageous in that previous studies show NTC occurrence to peak in this sector. We found that scatter plots, over the entire mission, of beaming angle versus magnetic latitude form a distinct inverted-V pattern, with the apex at/near the magnetic equator. This pattern was sharpest for frequencies ( f ) ≲ 100 kHz. Using the NTC beaming formula from the linear mode conversion theory (LMCT), we show that such an inverted-V pattern is expected due to the large variation in the plasmapause location over the entire mission. The theoretical derived pattern qualitatively reproduces the observed pattern but not quantitatively. The lack of quantitative agreement is discussed and is attributed to several factors, one factor is off-centered emissions from the radio window. The qualitative agreement strongly supports LMCT as being the dominant mechanism generating NTC for f ≲ 100 kHz. For f ≳ 100 kHz, the inverted-V pattern becomes less distinct, and strong near-equatorial beaming is observed. Finally, after considering contamination of our selections by left-handed polarized AKR, our study suggests that besides LMCT another unidentified NTC generation mechanism becomes important for f ≳ 100 kHz.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bottomonium properties in the quark-gluon plasma from a lattice-QCD informed 𝑇-matrix approach

Recent computations of bottomonium correlation functions with extended sources in lattice-discretized quantum chromodynamics (lQCD) provide new insights into heavy-quark dynamics at distance scales which are of the order of the inverse temperature. We analyze these results employing the thermodynamic 𝑇-matrix framework, in a continued effort to interpret lQCD data for quarkonium correlation functions in a nonperturbative and self-consistently solved quantum-many-body approach to a strongly coupled quark-gluon plasma (QGP). Its key inputs are the in-medium driving kernel (potential) of the scattering equation and an interference function which implements 3-body effects in the quarkonium coupling to the thermal medium. A simultaneous description of lQCD results for the bottomonium correlators with extended operators and the previously analyzed Wilson line correlators only requires minor refinements of the potential but calls for stronger interference effects at larger separation of the bottom quark and antiquark. We then analyze the poles of the self-consistent 𝑇 matrices on the real axis to assess the survival of the various bound states. Here, we estimate the pertinent temperatures where the poles disappear for the various bottomonium states and discuss the relation to the corresponding peaks in the bottomonium spectral functions. We also recalculate the spatial diffusion coefficient of the QGP and find it to be similar to that in our previous study.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Tunable structural color of bottlebrush block copolymers through direct-write 3D printing from solution

Additive manufacturing of functional materials is limited by control of microstructure and assembly at the nanoscale. In this work, we integrate nonequilibrium self-assembly with direct-write three-dimensional (3D) printing to prepare bottlebrush block copolymer (BBCP) photonic crystals (PCs) with tunable structure color. After varying deposition conditions during printing of a single ink solution, peak reflected wavelength for BBCP PCs span a range of 403 to 626 nm (blue to red), corresponding to an estimated change in d-spacing of >70 nm (Bragg- Snell equation). Physical characterization confirms that these vivid optical effects are underpinned by tuning of lamellar domain spacing, which we attribute to modulation of polymer conformation. Using in situ optical microscopy and solvent-vapor annealing, we identify kinetic trapping of metastable microstructures during printing as the mechanism for domain size control. More generally, we present a robust processing scheme with potential for on-the-fly property tuning of a variety of functional materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Feasibility Analysis for the Use of Retrofitted Air-Conditioners Using Thermal Energy Storage (TES) for High Ambient Temperature (HAT) Countries

In high ambient temperature (HAT) countries, summer temperatures exceed 35℃, degrading the performance of air-conditioning systems and straining power grids. In this paper, a feasibility analysis was conducted to investigate potential savings during the peak using latent Thermal Energy Storage (TES) at near room phase-change temperatures, replacing condensers, thus, minimizing temperature lifts. Weather data, building loads, and baseline air-conditioning systems data were gathered for Dubai. A transient vapor-compression model in Modelica was used to compare the COP, total power input and cooling capacity of the air-conditioner at peak hours when ambient temperatures range between 35 – 45 ⁰C versus the TES-Phase-Change Material (PCM) melting temperatures from 22 – 28⁰C. The results indicate that the TES-PCM can enhance the system COP at the peak by a factor 1.4 and 2 for during for outdoor temperatures of 35 – 40⁰C, and 40 – 45⁰C, respectively. Lower melting temperature PCMs were able to reduce the required power input by 30-50%, with more savings occurring at higher temperature days. On the other hand, higher temperature PCMs enhancements were minimal especially at outdoor ambient temperatures ranging between 35 – 40⁰C. Improvements to the cooling capacity range from 8 – 18 % for the outdoor temperature range of 35 – 45 ⁰C. An economic analysis was conducted to find the potential saving in utility costs for 30%, 60%, and 90% of the space cooling demands of Dubai, and find the trade-off points between utility savings and cost of PCM-TES implementation. If the peak loads are to be shifted by 6 hours daily, the percentage utility savings for the city is 18%. Using estimated costs of the PCM-TES, ranging from $200-500/kWh, the daily load shifting hours were estimated to range from 4 hours at the lowest cost systems to 2.5 hours at the highest costs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Consequence analyses of sabotage-induced radiological releases in high-temperature helium-cooled prismatic microreactors

Here, this study analyzes the radiological dose consequences of sabotage-induced accidents at three high-temperature helium-cooled prismatic microreactors (HTPMs) with thermal power ratings of 1, 10, and 50 MWt. Each HTPM employs uranium oxycarbide tristructural isotropic fuel enriched to 19.75 wt% high-assay low-enriched uranium. Simulations were conducted to estimate reactor core inventory at the point of fuel discharge––when the effective multiplication factor reduced to less than 1––representing peak radionuclide inventory. Postulated sabotage scenarios leading to reactor shutdown were analyzed at two intervals: immediately post-shutdown (0 h) and 3 days after shutdown using the SCALE code for radionuclide inventories and the RASCAL tool for dose consequences. Results show that although HTPMs benefit from inherent safety features and robust fuel design, radiological consequences scale with reactor power because of increased source term inventories. Smaller microreactors exhibited proportionally lower dose consequences. To support the economic and regulatory feasibility of microreactor deployment, this study emphasizes the value of a risk-informed, performance-based approach, as supported by regulations like 10 CFR Parts 100 and 53 in the United States. Microreactor developers should perform site-specific assessments of potential sabotage or low-probability, high-consequence events, especially when considering minimal on-site or full off-site emergency response.

Consequence↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling the External Effects of Air Taxis in Reducing the Energy Consumption of Road Traffic

Air taxis are currently being demonstrated. Few studies have quantified their external effects in reducing on-road vehicle fuel consumption. The hypothesis of this paper is that air taxis may divert some drivers away from congested traffic corridors, improve traffic speed and fuel economy, and reduce congestion-induced energy consumption. A model is developed that links several key components: mode choice, the relationship between travel demand and traffic speeds, the relationship between traffic speeds and fuel economies, and the heterogenous value of travel time. It is applied to the route from downtown Los Angeles to Los Angeles International Airport, where at peak hours 38,200 vehicles attempt to use the route that has an hourly capacity of 17,200 vehicles. The model estimates that, with conservative assumptions and near-term technologies, diverting 3.2% of the traffic to air taxis could produce a 15% reduction in traffic vehicle fuel use. With optimistic assumptions and mature technologies, the study estimates that diverting 20% of traffic could reduce the traffic vehicle fuel use by about 74%. The key insight is that if a small share of congested travelers switched to air taxis, motivated by private benefits of time savings, significant external benefits for other road travelers (time savings and fuel savings) and to society (reduced energy use and emissions), would ensue creating a win-win-win outcome. Overall, these estimates (which are not intended as predictions because of the stated limitations) strongly suggest the need to consider the external energy effect in future cost-benefit analyses of air taxi technologies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Validation of the Community Land Model Version 5 over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) using in situ and remote sensing data sets

The Community Land Model (CLM) is an effective tool to simulate the biophysical and biogeochemical processes and their interactions with the atmosphere. Although CLM Version 5 (CLM5) constitutes various updates in these processes, its performance in simulating energy, water and carbon cycles over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) at scales which land surface changes and hydrometeorological and hydroclimatological applications are more locally relevant is yet to be assessed. In this study, we conducted three simulations at 0.125? during 1979-2018 over the CONUS using different configurations of CLM, namely CLM5-biogeochemistry (CLM5BGC), CLM4.5BGC, and CLM5-satellite phenology (CLM5SP). We validated and compared their simulations against multiple remote-sensed and in-situ datasets. Overall, the parametric and structural updates (e.g., carbon cost for nitrogen uptake, variable soil thickness, dry surface layer) in CLM5 improve its ability in capturing terrestrial biogeochemical dynamics. The low evapotranspiration in CLM5BGC is associated with biases in simulating vegetation phenological characteristics rather than soil water limitations. The mismatch between CLM5BGC-simulated peak leaf area index and reference data can be attributed to CLM5BGC's inability in simulating phenology of trees and grasses. The differences between CLM-simulated irrigation and reference estimates can be attributed to differences between processes represented in models and in reality, and uncertainties in input and validation datasets. Evaluation against observations at small catchments suggest that hydrologic parameters needed to be calibrated to improve simulations of runoff, especially subsurface runoff. Additional efforts are needed to incorporate spatially-distributed plant phenology and physiology parameters and regional-specific agricultural management practices (e.g., planting, harvest).

Cheng, Yanyan↗
DOE OSTI2021

Midwest US Croplands Determine Model Divergence in North American Carbon Fluxes

Large uncertainties in North American terrestrial carbon fluxes hinder regional climate projections. Terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), the essential tools for understanding continental-scale carbon cycle, diverge on whether temperate forests or croplands dominate carbon uptake in North America. Evidence from novel photosynthetic proxies, such as those based on chlorophyll fluorescence, has cast doubt on the “weak cropland, strong forest” carbon uptake patterns simulated by most TBMs. However, no systematic evaluation of TBMs has yet been attempted to pin down space-time patterns that are most consistent with regional CO 2 observational constraints. Here, we leverage atmospheric CO 2 observations and satellite-observed photosynthetic proxies to understand emergent space-time patterns in North American carbon fluxes from a large suite of TBMs and data-driven models. To do so, we evaluate how well the atmospheric signals resulting from carbon flux estimates reproduce the space-time variability in atmospheric CO 2 , as is observed by a network of continuous-monitoring towers over North America. Models with gross or net carbon fluxes that are consistent with the observed CO 2 variability share a salient feature of growing-season carbon uptake in Midwest US croplands. Conversely, the remaining models place most growing-season uptake in boreal or temperate forests. Differences in model explanatory power depend mainly on the simulated annual cycles of cropland uptake—especially, the timing of peak uptake—rather than the distribution of annual mean fluxes across biomes. Our results suggest that improved model representation of cropland phenology is crucial to robust, policy-relevant estimation of North American carbon exchange.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Divide and conquer: separating the two probabilities in seismic phase picking

There are two fundamental probabilities in the seismic phase picking process—the probability of the existence of a seismic phase (detection probability) and the probability associated with the phase arrival time estimation (timing probability). The nearly ubiquitous approach in developing deep learning phase picking models is to use a kernel, such as a truncated Gaussian, to mask the labelled phase arrival time and train a segmentation model. Once a model is trained, the times of the peaks in the output are taken as phase arrival times (picks), and the height of the peaks are taken as ‘probability’ of the picks. Here, we show that this ‘probability’ represents neither the detection nor the timing probability because this approach forces the output to follow the shape of the kernel. We introduce an approach using two models to estimate these two distinct probabilities. We use a binary classifier with a calibrated confidence to address the detection probability and a multiclass classifier to obtain a probability mass function to address the timing probability. This new approach can make the deep learning-based phase picking process more interpretable and provide options to logically control seismic monitoring workflows.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of baryonic feedback on HSC-Y1 weak lensing non-Gaussian statistics

Baryonic feedback is a major systematic in weak lensing cosmology. Its most studied effect is the suppression of the lensing power spectrum, a second-order statistic, on small scales. Motivated by the growing interest in statistics beyond the second order, we investigate the effect of baryons on lensing non-Gaussian statistics and the resulting biases in the matter clustering amplitude S 8 = σ 8 Ω m / 0.3 . We focus on the Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam Year 1 (HSC-Y1) data which, with its high source number density, closely resembles those expected from the upcoming Euclid and Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time. We study four non-Gaussian statistics of convergence maps—peak counts, minimum counts, the probability distribution function, and the scattering transform coefficients—in addition to the usual power spectrum. We first estimate the biases in S 8 using mock observations built from the IllustrisTNG and BAHAMAS hydrodynamical simulations and theoretical models built from dark-matter-only simulations. We find up to 1 σ bias in S 8 when the smallest scales (2 arcmin) and the highest feedback level are considered. We then analyze the HSC-Y1 data and compare the S 8 obtained for each statistic with different smoothing scales or scale cuts. As we expect that baryons mostly affect the small scales, comparing the results obtained from including and excluding small scales can indicate the level of impact from baryons. With HSC data, we find only minor ( ≤ 0.5 σ ) differences in S 8 for all statistics, even when considering very small scales (2 arcmin). Our results suggest that the effect of baryons is insignificant at the level of HSC-Y1 down to 2 arcmin for all statistics examined here, or it is canceled by other scale-dependent systematics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

National Lightning Detection Network: Summary of Strike Peak Currents

Over the years 2006 through 2017, the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) mea- sured about 880 million lightning ground strikes in the continental United States. About 5.5% of these strikes had positive initial peak current. We examine the extreme quantiles of positive and negative peak current. For example, the 99% quantile indicates that 99 out of 100 strokes are less than the quantile. Noting that the estimation of the 99% quantile, e.g., depends on the area and time period under consideration, we examined the e ects of location and time period (both seasonally and yearly) on the determination of 99% quantiles. In the appendices, we detail the uncertainty quanti cation procedure and summarize strikes in January 2016.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Census of the Taurus Star-forming Region and Neighboring Associations with Gaia*

I have used high-precision photometry and astrometry from the third data release of Gaia to perform a survey for members of the Taurus star-forming region and young associations in its vicinity. This work has produced a new catalog of 532 adopted members of Taurus, which has only minor changes relative to the previous catalog from Esplin & Luhman. I have used the Gaia astrometry to divide the Taurus members into 13 groups that have distinct kinematics. Meanwhile, I have identified 1378 candidate members of seven associations near Taurus. All of these associations have histograms of spectral types that peak near M5 (~0.15 M ⊙ ), resembling other young populations in the solar neighborhood. For the Taurus groups and neighboring associations, I have estimated ages from their sequences of low-mass stars in Hertzsprung–Russell diagrams. Most of the Taurus groups have median ages of ~1–3 Myr, while the associations have ages ranging from 13 to 56 Myr. I have used mid-infrared photometry from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer to search for excess emission from circumstellar disks among the candidate members of the associations. Disks are detected for 51 stars, 20 of which are reported for the first time in this work. Some recent studies have proposed that samples of older stars (≳10 Myr) found in the vicinity of Taurus represent a distributed population that is associated with the Taurus cloud complex. However, I find that most of those stars have kinematics that are inconsistent with any relationship with Taurus.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Developing occupant archetypes within urban low-income housing: A case study in Mumbai, India

Rapid urbanization pressure and poverty have created a push for affordable housing within the global south. The design of affordable housing can have consequences on the thermal (dis)comfort and behaviour of the occupants, hence requiring an occupant-centric approach to ensure sustainability. This paper investigates occupant behaviour within the urban poor households of Mumbai, India and its impact on their thermal comfort and energy use. This study is a first-of-its-kind attempt to explore the socio-demographic characteristics and energy-related behaviour of low-income occupants within Indian context. Three occupant archetypes, Indifferent Consumers; Considerate Savers; and Conscious Conventionals, were identified from the behavioural and psychographic characteristics gathered through a transverse field survey. A two-step clustering approach was adopted for occupant segmentation that highlighted considerable diversity in occupants’ adaptation measures, energy knowledge, energy habits, and their pro-environmental behaviour within similar socio-economic group. Building energy simulation of the representative archetype behaviour estimated up to 37% variations for air-conditioned and up to 8% variation for fan-assisted naturally ventilated housing units during peak summer months. The results from this study establish the significance of occupant factors in shaping energy demand and thermal comfort within low-income housing and pave way for developing occupant-centric building design strategies to serve this marginalized population. The developed low-income occupant archetypes would be useful for architects and energy modelers to generate realistic energy use profiles and improve building performance simulation results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Energy considerations regarding pulsed arc production of nanomaterials

Atmospheric arc discharge volumes have been estimated from the light distribution emitted during evaporation of graphite and molybdenum disulphide (MoS 2 ) anodes. These data have been correlated to the peak power in the case of pulsed arc discharge held at different frequencies (1, 2 and 5 Hz). The measured power density values and the corresponding specific energies per particle have been compared to DC values, and showed that pulsed arc discharges deliver electrical power more efficiently than DC arc discharges do with yet lower thermal loads. In particular, the power density of ≈1 kW/cm 3 characteristic of pulsed arcs (10-20 kW/cm 3 in DC) suffices to provide 15 eV/particle to the arc plasma (≈10 eV/particle or less in DC). Such an energy balance resulted in high ionization rates of the ablated material and production yields of carbon nanotubes around 10 11 cm -2 kWh -1 . Lastly, in situ probe experiments showed that pulsed arcs enhance the transport to substrate of the generated nanoparticles, such as graphene and MoS 2 monolayers. Pulsed anodic arcs open the possibility to generate further nanomaterials thanks to a more rational power investment and a better control of the discharge region.

42 ENGINEERING↗