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At least 235 records · Page 13

Modeling the Functional Forms of Grid Disturbances

This report introduces a functional form that may be used to quantitatively predict the impacts of new grid tools and changing system qualities on the likelihoods, durations, and depths of various grid disturbances. Each disturbance scenario is modeled to have three component stages—avoidance, reactance and recovery, which together parametrically estimate one disturbance’s impacts. The modeled scenario is then placed and replicated within an analysis period to represent the likelihood or frequency of the scenario and its consequent impacts. Whereas analysts have struggled to define and apply metrics for grid resilience, the functional form introduced by this report shares units of measurement with accepted grid-status measures (e.g., numbers of customers currently experiencing a service outage). Furthermore, the integrated and averaged functional form over an analysis period provides a meaningful normalized performance metric (e.g., customer outage minutes per year) that is ultimately independent of the duration of the period of. The approach may be applied similarly regardless of the severity or frequency of the disturbances that are being analyzed. Because metrics can be chosen to be identical in both the hypothetical future and the actual historical past, the historical past eventually becomes the test of the future predictions, at least in a statistical sense. The authors originally developed this approach to facilitate analysis of the effects of transactive energy (TE) systems effects on electric power grid resilience. TE systems invite energy suppliers and consumers to actively collaborate toward the discovery of, and their responses to, the locational value of energy. The findings from this process are often embodied as energy prices, the dynamics of which indicate the locational value of energy and can further represent important grid service needs. While some academic papers claim to quantify the value of a specific TE system design toward grid resilience, the answer, in general, has been elusive. Not only do multiple and conflicting definitions of resilience and reliability exist, but countless TE systems are being invented. We conclude the following: (1) The ideal analysis should harmonize rather than differentiate resilience and reliability. Therefore, this report uses the more general term disturbance whenever the overloaded terms resilience and reliability can be avoided. (2) The effectiveness of TE systems must be mapped to underlying qualities of a TE system, thereby avoiding presumptions that every TE design offers similar advantages. The authors seek to evaluate the parametric effects of TE system qualities (e.g., spatial granularity, granularity of time steps, length of future prediction horizon) on avoiding, reacting to, and recovering from grid disturbances. Furthermore, any advantages (or disadvantages) must be fairly compared with the many alternative tools, systems, and strategies that might offer comparable benefits.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Crossing the Streams – Sampler and the TemplateEngine [Slides]

This presentation discusses Sampler, which is a versatile UQ and parametric study tool that can be applied to any SCALE Sequence. Sampler can perturb any quantity in any SCALE input. Recent work at ORNL has developed new types of covariance data that allow Sampler UQ to be applied to nearly all SCALE applications, including reactor depletion, UNF fuel characterization, source term analysis, and decay heat calculation. In SCALE 6.2 releases, CE data in transport cannot be perturbed. Sampler was originally designed for stochastic sampling with any sequence within SCALE and Parametric capability added in SCALE 6.2.2. Sampler can be used for uncertainty quantification, including sample data in static or depletion calculations and sample inputs for uncertainties in compositions and dimensions. The SCALE TemplateEngine allows for expanding templates to full inputs and the combination provides a powerful UQ tool.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Multicomponent gas mixture parametric CFD study of condensation heat transfer in small modular reactor system safety

Safety is always the primary concern for designing and analyzing nuclear reactor systems. The requirements for the safety margin for advanced small modular reactor (SMR) systems are targeted even higher than the conventional commercial large-scale nuclear reactors incorporating the passive and inherent safety systems. The SMR systems are designed with the condensation passive containment cooling system (PCCS), which plays a critical role in removing reactor heat during a steam release accident case. However, the presence of non-condensable gas (NCG), like air, reduces the heat transfer performance. This physics phenomenon becomes multifactorial for nuclear reactor containment during a fuel failure accident case that releases hydrogen gas. Besides, the mixture component of steam-air-hydrogen varies in reactor accident cases, which need simulation and validation keeping parameters of importance. Reviews showed that previous studies for SMR’s PCCCS did not cover the condensation heat transfer (CHT) in the presence of multicomponent NCG mixture parametric computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation and validation, making a research gap in the SMR design safety. A comprehensive CHT parametric CFD study was performed for SMR PCCS to fill this research gap. This study used experimental data as simulation 3D physics domain inlet and outlet boundary conditions. However, the wall boundary conditions were constant temperature, curve-fit, and annular coolant for verifying the turbulence models. Parametric simulations were performed, verified, and optimized for steam-NCGs mixtures. The multicomponent gases, multiphase mixtures, and fluid film condensation models were applied with associated turbulence models. The results of the parametric study were evaluated for realistic reactor conditions. Results showed that parametric study provided critical insight about the dependency of multicomponent gas mixture parameters that supports reactor safety design, analysis, and licensing.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

HERON

HERON is a modeling toolset and plugin for RAVEN to accelerate stochastic technoeconomic assessment of the economic viability of various grid-energy system configurations, especially with application to electrical grids and integrated energy systems (IES). The frameworks enabling this toolset are INL's RAVEN and its TEAL plugin. The toolset includes automated RAVEN workflow generation tools for performing stochastic analysis and optimization driven by technoeconomic factors. The workflows generated employ RAVEN for parametric or optimizing study of grid component characteristics, and again for stochastic sampling of regulated and deregulated markets, load, and weather histories. The toolset further provides methods for economically-optimal dispatch of system components given the stochastic samples of market, load, and weather histories. The toolset allows assembling of existing and new models through the RAVEN interface to the Modelica process modeling language.

Talbot, PaulW↗

Simulation of Transport Phenomena in Bubble Column Reactors

The production of carbon and hydrogen from methane is a viable pathway for monetizing the vast reserves of US natural gas. Liquid (metals and/or salts) bubble column reactors operating at temperatures greater than 1000° C allow the conversion of methane into hydrogen without CO 2 emission. The low-density carbon floats on top of the liquid surface, allowing an easier removal, compared to other reactor concepts for methane pyrolysis. In this current report, we present results from simulations of transport phenomena in a liquid bubble column reactor. The goal is to investigate and understand parameters that are crucial for bubble column reactor design and scale up. The report presents the formulation and numerical methods used in the multiphase direct numerical simulation software, Quilt. This software was validated for the bubbly flow using numerical and physics based test problems. Quilt was then used to perform simulations of the bubble column reactor as a parametric study, varying the bubble injection parameters. The simulations were visualized for qualitative analysis and followed up with a quantitative analysis. The effect of injection parameters on various quantitative measures of the bubble residence time, interfacial area and motion through the column are presented.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Qualitative trend analysis based on a mixed-integer representation

Shape constrained spline fitting is a useful method to impose prior knowledge onto flexible semi-parametric models during parameter estimation. Most typically, the function shape is imposed through order restrictions on the regression coefficients. The intended shape is considered known or selected based on heuristic rules. In this study, we present a method to estimate the optimal set of order restrictions to segment a univariate data series into episodes with distinct shapes. This is also known as the qualitative trend analysis (QTA) problem. The obtained solution uses a trade-off between lack-of-fit and model complexity. Further, our practical implementation takes inspiration from the generalized order restricted information criterion (GORIC) for inequality-constrained model selection. From this, one learns (a) that QTA can be formulated as a mixed-integer quadratic program (MIQP) and (b) that the newly proposed mixed order restricted information criterion (MORIC) enables optimal segmentation. This is illustrated through didactic case studies.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Scaled boundary cubature scheme for numerical integration over planar regions with affine and curved boundaries

This paper introduces the scaled boundary cubature (SBC) scheme for accurate and efficient integration of functions over polygons and two-dimensional regions bounded by parametric curves. Over two-dimensional domains, the SBC method reduces integration over a region bounded by m curves to integration over m regions (referred to as curved triangular regions), where each region is bounded by two line segments and a curve. With proper (counterclockwise) orientation of the boundary curves, the scheme is applicable to convex and nonconvex domains. Additionally, for star-convex domains, a tensor-product cubature rule with positive weights and integration points in the interior of the domain is obtained. If the integrand is homogeneous, we show that this new method reduces to the homogeneous numerical integration scheme; however, the SBC scheme is more versatile since it is equally applicable to both homogeneous and non-homogeneous functions. This paper also introduces several methods for smoothing integrands with point singularities and near-singularities. When these methods are used, highly efficient integration of weakly singular functions is realized. Finally, the SBC method is applied to a number of benchmark problems, which reveal its broad applicability and superior performance (in terms of time to generate a rule and accuracy per cubature point) when compared to existing methods for integration.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Application of Proliferation Resistance Optimization (PRO-X) Methodology to a Generic Research Reactor

The Proliferation Resistance Optimization Program (PRO-X) has been established by the NNSA to provide a framework for evaluating and integrating proliferation resistance into nuclear reactor system (core, fuel, and auxiliary facilities) designs that also maintain the safety and peaceful use missions of those systems. The research reactor (PRO-RR) area is the component of PRO-X that supports the program objectives by applying state-of-the-art analysis methods to research reactor systems. This report details the results of using a defined set of analytical tools to evaluate the neutronics, thermal hydraulics and proliferation risk characteristics of a set of parametric cores based on a generic 10 MW materials test reactor that uses a plate-type low enriched uranium (LEU) fuel. The analysis shows that by suitable adjustment of the core size, reflector configuration and power level, mission performance and safety margins can be maintained or improved while reducing the potential for production of special nuclear material.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Geospatial analysis of freight accessibility and job attraction: The role of interstate ramps, airports, ports, and rail

The number of jobs within an industry is significantly influenced by geographical location, with transportation infrastructure playing a key role. While previous research has largely focused on how access to jobs affects employment, less attention has been given to how transportation infrastructure impacts business operations and job attraction. Here, this study addresses this gap by examining how the ease of transporting products to key transportation facilities affects job numbers in freight-intensive industries. Using job data from the Longitudinal Employment Household Dynamics dataset at the Census Tract level, we applied a non-parametric model to assess the impact of proximity to interstate ramps, rail intermodals, ports, and airports. Our analysis revealed that closer transportation infrastructure generally has a greater impact on employment. Specifically, interstate ramps are crucial for attracting jobs, particularly in rural areas, while airport proximity is essential for industries dealing with high-value, time-sensitive goods, as seen notably in Massachusetts. The importance of transportation facilities varies considerably across states and industries. The findings and method in this study can be used by transportation agencies for freight planning.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Extraction of the Collins-Soper Kernel from a Joint Analysis of Experimental and Lattice Data

We present a first joint extraction of the Collins-Soper kernel (CSK) combining experimental and lattice QCD data in the context of an analysis of transverse-momentum-dependent distributions (TMDs). Based on a neural-network parametrization, we perform a Bayesian reweighting of an existing fit of TMDs using lattice data, as well as a joint TMD fit to lattice and experimental data. We consistently find that the inclusion of lattice information shifts the central value of the CSK by approximately 10% and reduces its uncertainty by 40%–50%, highlighting the potential of lattice inputs to improve TMD extractions.

Avkhadiev, Artur [Massachusetts Inst. of Technolog↗

Main Bearing Replacement and Damage - A Field Data Study on 15 Gigawatts of Wind Energy Capacity

This study seeks to establish a comprehensive baseline of knowledge for the replacement and damage of main bearings in wind turbines. The purpose of this report is to provide a high-level summary of the data set, methodology, and results of this work. Full technical details and an extended analysis will be made available in a future publication. We collected data on main bearing replacements and reported damage from industrial partners based in Europe and the United States. In total, we obtained data for 167 wind power plants, with a combined capacity of 15.3 gigawatts (GW). Most of the data set was comprised of land-based, three-point mount, spherical roller bearings. Within this data set were 689 instances of main bearing replacement. Analysis was undertaken in two parts: first, a statistical analysis of the main bearing time-to-replacement data using survival analysis techniques; second, quantitative and qualitative analyses of the obtained damage information. Our results showed that 10% of a fixed main bearing population would be expected to have been replaced by 10.5 years. This is close to half of the 20-year design value. Fitted parametric distributions then indicated that by year 20, between 22% and 25% of main bearings are expected to have been replaced. Analysis of the damage reports revealed spalling to be the main type of damage listed. The additional presence of surface damage in the collected data indicates that at least part of the spalling cases are likely due to surface-initiated rolling contact fatigue. At this stage is not clear what proportion of spalling cases result from "wear induced", surface-initiated and subsurface-initiated rolling contact fatigue. While this work provides important insights into the current state of main bearing replacements and damage, many questions remain. An ongoing and expanding data collection and analysis effort focused on wind turbine main bearings is therefore recommended.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Kepler Data Analysis: Non-Gaussian Noise and Fourier Gaussian Process Analysis of Stellar Variability

We develop a statistical analysis model of Kepler stellar flux data in the presence of planet transits, non-Gaussian noise, and stellar variability. We first develop a model for the Kepler noise probability distribution in the presence of outliers, which make the noise probability distribution non-Gaussian. We develop a signal likelihood analysis based on this probability distribution, in which we model the signal as a sum of the star variability and planetary transits. We argue that these components need to be modeled together if optimal signal is to be extracted from the data. For the stellar variability model we develop an optimal Gaussian process analysis using a Fourier-based Wiener filter approach, where the power spectrum is non-parametric and learned from the data. We develop high dimensional optimization of the objective function, where we jointly optimize all the model parameters, including thousands of star variability modes, and planet transit parameters. We apply the method to Kepler-90 data and show that it gives a better match to the stellar variability than the existing methods, and robustly handles noise outliers. As a consequence, the planet radii have a higher value than what the existing methods give, including splines and celerite.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Thermoeconomic Evaluation and Optimization of Using Different Environmentally Friendly Refrigerant Pairs for a Dual-Evaporator Cascade Refrigeration System

Applications of dual-evaporator refrigeration systems have recently gained much attention both in academia and industry due to their multiple benefits. In this study, a comprehensive thermodynamic and economic analysis is conducted to evaluate the potential of using several environmentally friendly refrigerant couples and identifies the most suitable one yielding the best economic results. To achieve this goal, a detailed parametric study is conducted, and an optimization process is performed using a particle swarm optimization (PSO) approach to minimize the unit production cost of cooling (UPCC) of the cascade refrigeration system. The results showed that among all selected 18 refrigerant pairs and for all ranges of examined operating parameters, the R170-R161 pair and R1150-R1234yf pair are identified as the best and worst pairs, respectively, from both thermodynamic and economic viewpoints. The results also confirm that R170-R161 pair has an improvement over R717-R744, used as a typical refrigerant pair of cascade refrigeration cycles. For a base case analysis, the COP of R170-R161 and R1150-R1234yf pairs is determined as 1.727 and 1.552, respectively, while their UPCC is found to be $0.395/ton-hr and $0.419/ton-hr, respectively, showing the influence of proper selection of refrigerant pairs on the cascade cycle’s performance. Overall, this study offers a useful thermodynamic and economic insight regarding the selection of proper refrigerant pairs for a dual-evaporator cascade vapor compression refrigeration system.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Interlaboratory Study of Digital Volume Correlation Error Due to X-Ray Computed Tomography Equipment and Scan Parameters: an Update from the DVC Challenge

Background: The quality of Digital Volume Correlation (DVC) full-field displacement measurements depends directly on the characteristics of the X-ray Computed Tomography (XCT) equipment, and scan procedures used to acquire the tomographic images. Objective: In this work, we seek to experimentally study the effects of XCT equipment and tomographic scan procedures on the quality of these images for DVC analysis, and to survey the level of DVC error that may be achieved using standard XCT operating procedures. Methods: Six participants in an interlaboratory study acquired high-quality XCT scans of a syntactic foam before and after rigid body motion. The resulting images were correlated using commercial DVC software to quantify error sources due to random image noise, reconstruction artifacts, as well as systematic spatial or temporal distortion. Results: In the absence of rigid body motion, the standard deviation of the displacement measurements ranged from 0.012 to 0.043 voxels using a moderate subvolume size, indicating that subvoxel measurement resolution could readily be achieved with a variety of XCT equipment and scan recipes. Comparison of consecutive scans without rigid body motion showed transient dilatational displacement gradients due to self-heating of the X-ray source and/or thermal expansion of the foam. Evaluation of the scans after rigid body motion showed significant, machine-specific spatial distortion in the displacement fields of up to 0.5 voxels; new approaches to remove this error need to be developed. Conclusions: Analysis of the scan protocols used in the interlaboratory study, as well as a complementary parametric sensitivity study, showed that the DVC error was strongly influenced by the XCT equipment, but could be mitigated by adjusting the total scan duration.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

THERMAL MODELING OF HANFORD LEAD CANISTER’S HEATER BENCH TESTS

A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was built to simulate planned testing of heater assemblies for the Hanford Lead Canister (HLC) project. The HLC is a canister storage system that will contain heaters to simulate the decay heat of nuclear material and provide the canister storage system with environmental conditions equivalent to the operating conditions on a dry storage pad. The HLC will be equipped with long-term data collection and monitoring systems to provide an early warning of corrosion, pitting, cracking, or other signs of canister degradation that might threaten the integrity of the containment boundary over the potentially long term of dry storage. An important part of the HLC development is to confirm the function and ability of the electric heater assemblies that were specially designed to provide heating similar to the decay heat of nuclear material contained within the canister storage system. Heater bench testing is planned for early 2022 in a test configuration that does not include the canister. The goal of the bench testing is to verify that the heaters can replicate the decay heat of a canister with nuclear material and to validate the thermal models, which are critical to understanding the HLC’s thermal environment, including the local air flow within the canister storage system. Testing of the heater assemblies inside the canister system are planned in the future to validate canister level thermal models, and rigorous pre-deployment testing of the complete HLC cask and canister system is intended to be completed before the HLC is deployed in the 2025-2026 timeframe. This study presents the pre-test temperature predictions of the bench testing. A description of the heater assemblies and planned bench testing is presented. The model was developed with the commercial CFD code STAR-CCM+. An uncertainty analysis was run with the CFD model to determine the uncertainty in the temperature predictions and provide a range over which the predicted temperatures are expected to vary. The uncertainty analysis was performed by coupling STAR-CCM+ with the software Dakota, which provides advanced parametric analyses, including quantification of margins and uncertainty with computational models. This work is expected to provide insight into SNF canister behavior.

Suffield, Sarah R.↗

THERMAL MODELING OF HANFORD CESIUM AND STRONTIUM CANISTERS DURING SIMULATED LOADING

A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was built to simulate planned testing of heater assemblies within a canister and overpack for the Hanford Lead Canister (HLC) project. The HLC is a canister storage system that will contain heaters to simulate the decay heat of nuclear material and provide the canister storage system with environmental conditions equivalent to the operating conditions on a dry storage pad. The HLC will be equipped with long-term data collection and monitoring systems to provide an early warning of corrosion, pitting, cracking, or other signs of canister degradation that might threaten the integrity of the containment boundary over the potentially long term of dry storage. An important part of the HLC development is to make pretest numerical predictions for the behavior of the heated canister during the simulated radiolytic decay heat testing, which simulates the dry storage system during loading operations. The simulated radiolytic decay heat test is planned for mid-2024 in a configuration that includes the heater assembly, overpack, and canister, but with the lids removed to allow loading cesium and strontium capsules into the canister. One of the goals of the test is to evaluate the thermal behavior of the canister and overpack assembly in the ambient air of the test facility, which will provide data critical to validating the thermal models and understanding how the HLC will perform as a system once deployed. To best approximate real-world conditions, the CFD model includes the full air volume of the mock-up truck bay the heated canister test will be performed in, enabling detailed investigation of how the heated canister affects airflow around it. Rigorous pre-deployment testing of the complete HLC cask and canister system is intended to be completed before the HLC is deployed in the 2028 timeframe. This study presents the pre-test temperature predictions of the simulated radiolytic decay heat test. A description of the heater assembly, canister, and overpack system is presented. The model was developed with the commercial CFD software STAR-CCM+. An uncertainty analysis was run with the CFD model to determine the uncertainty in the temperature predictions and provide a range over which the predicted temperatures are expected to vary. The uncertainty analysis was preformed by coupling STAR-CCM+ with the software Dakota, which provides advanced parametric analyses, including quantification of margins and uncertainty with computational models. This work is expected to provide insight into SNF canister behavior.

Carpenter-Graffy, Dina E.↗

BEopt™ (Building Energy Optimization Tool) version 3.0.1 3/16/2023 [SWR-05-41]

The BEopt™ (Building Energy Optimization Tool) software provides capabilities to evaluate residential building designs and identify cost-optimal efficiency packages at various levels of whole-house energy savings along the path to zero net energy. The BEopt software can be used to analyze both new construction and existing home retrofits, as well as single-family detached and multi-family buildings, through evaluation of single building designs, parametric sweeps, and cost-based optimizations. The BEopt software provides detailed simulation-based analysis based on specific house characteristics, such as size, architecture, occupancy, vintage, location, and utility rates. Discrete envelope and equipment options, reflecting realistic construction materials and practices, are evaluated. The BEopt software uses EnergyPlus®, the Department of Energy's flagship simulation engine. Simulation assumptions are based on ANSI/RESNET/ICC Standards and the Building America Housing Simulation Protocols. The sequential search optimization technique used by the BEopt software: Finds minimum-cost building designs at different target energy-savings levels Identifies multiple near-optimal designs along the path, allowing for equivalent solutions based on builder or contractor preference. Download A BEopt™ Version 3.0.1 Beta release (Mar. 16, 2023) is now available. Download the BEopt 3.0.1 Beta setup file.

Christensen, Craig↗

Characterizing How Meteorological Forcing Selection and Parameter Uncertainty Influence Community Land Model Version 5 Hydrological Applications in the United States

Despite the increasing use of large-scale Land Surface Models (LSMs) in predicting hydrological responses in extreme conditions, there's a critical gap in understanding the uncertainties in these predictions. This study addresses this gap through a detailed diagnostic evaluation of the uncertainties arising from meteorological forcing selection and model parametrization in hydrological simulations of the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5). CLM5 is configured at a spatial scale of about 12-km to simulate runoff processes for 464 headwater watersheds, selected from the Catchment Attributes for Large-Sample Studies (CAMELS) dataset to be representative of physiographic and climatic gradients across the conterminous United States. For each watershed, CLM5 is driven by five commonly used gridded forcing datasets in combination with a large ensemble (> 1200) of key CLM5 hydrologic parameters. Our results suggest that uncertainty in CLM5 runoff simulations resulting from both forcing and parametric sources is markedly higher in arid regions, e.g., Great Plains and Midwest regions. Uncertainty in low flow is dominated by parametric uncertainty, while the selection of meteorological forcing contributes more dominantly to high flow and seasonal flows during fall and spring. Our analysis also demonstrates that the selection of forcing datasets and the metrics used to calibrate CLM5 significantly impact the model’s predictive accuracy in extreme event severity for both floods and droughts. Overall, the results from this study highlight the need to understand and account for forcing and parametric uncertainties in CLM5 simulations, particularly for hazard and risk assessments addressing hydrologic extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗