Surrogate multi-fidelity data and model fusion for scientific discovery and uncertainty quantification in Earth System Models
This whitepaper addresses the Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD)’s predictability challenges in modeling the integrated water cycle and data-model integration. Specifically, it focuses on reducing and characterizing the uncertainty in the representation of process models for unresolved physics, either due to model resolution or limited by the physical under standing or computational efficiency, and the use of observational data for in-situ process parameter optimization within ESM. The described methods may also be used to determine the nature of responses (e.g. strength and direction), and hence to identify critical processes that drive the overall ESM responses to perturbation in the forcing