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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Combining Observations and Models: A Review of the CARDAMOM Framework for Data‐Constrained Terrestrial Ecosystem Modeling

The rapid increase in the volume and variety of terrestrial biosphere observations (i.e., remote sensing data and in situ measurements) offers a unique opportunity to derive ecological insights, refine process‐based models, and improve forecasting for decision support. However, despite their potential, ecological observations have primarily been used to benchmark process‐based models, as many past and current models lack the capability to directly integrate observations and their associated uncertainties for parameterization. In contrast, data assimilation frameworks such as the CARbon DAta MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM) and its suite of process‐based models, known as the Data Assimilation Linked Ecosystem Carbon Model (DALEC), are specifically designed for model‐data fusion. This review, motivated by a recent CARDAMOM community workshop, examines the development and applications of CARDAMOM, with an emphasis on its role in advancing ecosystem process understanding. CARDAMOM employs a Bayesian approach, using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to enable data‐driven calibration of DALEC parameters and initial states (i.e., carbon pool sizes) through observation operators. CARDAMOM's unique ability to retrieve localized model process parameters from diverse datasets—ranging from in situ measurements to global satellite observations—makes it a highly flexible tool for analyzing spatially variable ecosystem responses to environmental change. However, assimilating these data also presents challenges, including data quality issues that propagate into model skill, as well as trade‐offs between model complexity, parameter equifinality, and predictive performance. We discuss potential solutions to these challenges, such as reducing parameter equifinality by incorporating new observations. This review also offers community recommendations for incorporating emerging datasets, integrating machine learning techniques, strengthening collaboration with remote sensing, field, and modeling communities, and expanding CARDAMOM's relevance for localized ecosystem monitoring and decision‐making. CARDAMOM enables a deep, mechanistic understanding of terrestrial ecosystem dynamics that cannot be achieved through empirical analyses of observational datasets or weakly constrained models alone.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi‐Model Ensembles in Ecosystem Modeling: Challenges and Best Practices for Decision‐Making

Ecosystem models are increasingly central to the decision-making for environmental policy, conservation planning, and climate-related investments. Yet, the growing reliance on Multi-Model Ensembles (MMEs) of ecosystem models by practitioners and policymakers, sometimes under tight timelines and imperfect information, has frequently outpaced the scientific rigor required to ensure ensemble reliability. Here, MMEs refer to approaches that combine targeted predictions from multiple models with the expectation of improving robustness and quantifying predictive uncertainty. Poorly designed MMEs may create a false sense of confidence and lead to suboptimal policy and market decisions. This perspective argues that robust decision-making-relevant MMEs must be grounded on two pillars: (1) rigorous Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs), which identify inter-model agreement and disagreement, characterize model uncertainties, and evaluate robustness with observationally based benchmarks—MIPs' diagnostic evaluation is so critical that it must be needed to drive MME's decision in model selection and weighting, especially when only a limited number of models available; and (2) co-design by both stakeholders and scientists to ensure that scenarios, metrics and uncertainty requirements provide decision-relevant information. Building upon the past success and lessons from the existing MIPs-MMEs efforts (e.g., climate/Earth system/crop), we derived the theoretical basis for MMEs, addressed their specific challenges in ecosystem modeling, and highlighted proper consideration of model numbers and diversity, risk of model inter-dependence, effective calibration of model parameters, possible overdue of some ecosystem model development, critical roles of open benchmark data across a wide range of conditions, and suggested use of Artificial Intelligence to support MIPs-MMEs. We highlighted the under-recognized opportunity for MIPs and MMEs to drive scientific progress and innovation through identifying better performing models, systematic benchmarking, feedback loops, and targeted model improvement. By following actionable best practice guidelines, MMEs can evolve from ad hoc aggregation of models into a trusted backbone of environmental policy and decision-making.

ecosystem modeling↗
DOE OSTI2022

Adjoint sensitivity analysis and data assimilation for verification of dry storage cask contents

Dry cask storage is a method for interim storage of spent fuel assemblies which contain fissile isotopes of uranium and plutonium. These can present a proliferation concern and consequently there is a need for non-destructive testing methods to verify a dry cask's contents for proliferation protection. We present an application of adjoint sensitivity analysis and data assimilation to a multigroup diffusion model of dry cask storage. Adjoint sensitivity analysis allows the efficient calculation of sensitivities for use in data assimilation to calibrate imprecisely known parameter values and data consistency tests to detect diversion scenarios. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

SNL will be able to provide well-calibrated models to weapons systems analysts by integrating an engine for constitutive model calibration with the GRANTA materials database

Researchers at Sandia National Laboratories have integrated the GRANTA materials database with the MatCal calibration engine to calibrate material models from characterization data. GRANTA is gaining acceptance across the NNSA Tri-lab complex and is being populated with weapons-specific test data by Sandia experimentalists. To use that data to create material models for use by weapons systems analysts, MatCal has been enabled import calibration data and test conditions from GRANTA to quickly and reproducibly produce a calibrated set of parameters for a given constitutive model. The team is currently working to store the parameters characterizing material behavior in GRANTA to make them accessible by all weapons analysts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Huge ensembles – Part 1: Design of ensemble weather forecasts using spherical Fourier neural operators

Abstract. Simulating low-likelihood high-impact extreme weather events in a warming world is a significant and challenging task for current ensemble forecasting systems. While these systems presently use up to 100 members, larger ensembles could enrich the sampling of internal variability. They may capture the long tails associated with climate hazards better than traditional ensemble sizes. Due to computational constraints, it is infeasible to generate huge ensembles (comprised of 1000–10 000 members) with traditional, physics-based numerical models. In this two-part paper, we replace traditional numerical simulations with machine learning (ML) to generate hindcasts of huge ensembles. In Part 1, we construct an ensemble weather forecasting system based on spherical Fourier neural operators (SFNOs), and we discuss important design decisions for constructing such an ensemble. The ensemble represents model uncertainty through perturbed-parameter techniques, and it represents initial condition uncertainty through bred vectors, which sample the fastest-growing modes of the forecast. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) as a baseline, we develop an evaluation pipeline composed of mean, spectral, and extreme diagnostics. With large-scale, distributed SFNOs with 1.1 billion learned parameters, we achieve calibrated probabilistic forecasts. As the trajectories of the individual members diverge, the ML ensemble mean spectra degrade with lead time, consistent with physical expectations. However, the individual ensemble members' spectra stay constant with lead time. Therefore, these members simulate realistic weather states during the rollout, and the ML ensemble passes a crucial spectral test in the literature. The IFS and ML ensembles have similar extreme forecast indices, and we show that the ML extreme weather forecasts are reliable and discriminating. These diagnostics ensure that the ensemble can reliably simulate the time evolution of the atmosphere, including low-likelihood high-impact extremes. In Part 2, we generate a huge ensemble initialized each day in summer 2023, and we characterize the simulations of extremes.

Mahesh, Ankur↗
DOE OSTI2025

Design and Demonstration of a NH3-Fueled Two-Stroke Uniflow Engine for Greenhouse Gas Reduction

The maritime shipping industry is growing increasingly interested in both low and non-carbon-containing fuels to meet future greenhouse gas emission targets. Specifically of interest is ammonia, as it has a relatively high volumetric energy density compared to other future fuels, such as hydrogen, making it more economical to transport. The robust engine architecture of low-speed two-stroke marine engines makes them an ideal candidate for ammonia fuel, overcoming many of the issues surrounding its poor ignitability and low flame speed. If emissions and fueling system challenges can be addressed, retrofits of current low-speed two-stroke dual-fuel engines represent a viable pathway for bringing ammonia engines to market. This study explores these technical hurdles by describing the design, analysis, and experimental validation of a single cylinder research engine converted to operate on ammonia fuel. The engine is a reduced-scale uniflow two-stroke marine engine with two previous hardware configurations available – diesel and high-pressure CNG dual-fuel. A concept study was used to evaluate possible ammonia-fueled engine architectures and the associated tradeoffs and design considerations. With the chosen architecture, low-pressure dual fuel, 1D and 3D analysis tools were used to inform hardware selection and to determine hardware configurations which minimized ammonia-slip. In addition to these considerations the hardware and engine configuration were designed to provide a versatile and robust testing platform. This includes options to test both gaseous and liquid ammonia injection, as well as a wide range of performance parameters such as AFR, swirl, valve timing, SOI, and many others. Design constraints imposed by the existing engine hardware necessitated an iterative loop between design and analysis toolsets, ultimately converging on a final design for the ammonia-conversion hardware. The engine was rebuilt with the new hardware and evaluated in an engine test cell. A new control strategy developed and flashed onto a prototyping electronic control unit allowed for full control over all engine parameters. An initial calibration was developed, providing test data for validation of the engine 1D and 3D models. The impact of the design choices on engine operability and the ability to meet program targets is discussed as well as opportunities for further optimization of the ammonia-conversion hardware, informed by the validated models.

Kaul, Brian [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000184813620)↗
DOE OSTI2023

A mechanistic model for creep and thermal aging in Alloy 709

This report describes a physics-based model for creep and thermal aging in Alloy 709. Alloy 709 is an advanced austenitic alloy, targeted for use in future Sodium Fast Reactors (SFRs) and other advanced reactors. The material has superior high temperature properties compared to currently qualified 316 and 304 stainless steels. However, the available creep and thermal aging test database for Alloy 709 is significantly more limited compared to the historical materials. The physics-based model developed here is one way to accelerate the qualification of the material by providing more accurate long-term predictions for creep properties and thermal aging, compared to current empirical time-extrapolate techniques. The crystal plasticity finite element model is used to predict the deformation and failure of alloy 709. The same setup for the CPFE model is used in both the baseline model calibration process and the simulation campaigns for parameter inference. Specific constitutive choices are made for Alloy 709 to capture the primary deformation mechanisms. The dislocation creep formulation developed by Hu and Cocks is extended to account for coupled precipitation formation and the grain boundary cavitation model developed by Sham, Needleman, et al. is used to model grain boundary cavitation-induced failure. A novel update algorithm is proposed to render the semi-discrete constitutive update for the Sham-Needleman model unconditionally stable. A progressive calibration approach is adopted based on the observations that several types of material responses can be effectively decoupled. A surrogate model is trained based on full-fledged CPFE simulations to accelerate the forward model evaluations, and stochastic variational inference (SVI) is used to calibrate the unknown microstructural model parameters. The calibrated mechanistic model is used to predict the long-term creep life of Alloy 709, and the predictions are compared against classical empirical approaches.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparing Measured Driver Behavior Distributions to Results from Car-Following Models using SUMO and Real-World Vehicle Trajectories from Radar: SUMO Default vs. Radar-Measured CF model Parameters

In this study, the physical principles governing car-following (CF) behavior and their impact on traffic flow at signalized intersections are investigated. High temporal-resolution radar data is used to provide valuable insights into actual CF behavior, including acceleration, deceleration, and time headway distribution. Demand-calibrated SUMO simulations are run using empirical CF parameter distributions, and three CF models are evaluated: IDM, EIDM, and Krauss. By emulating radar data in SUMO and processing simulated vehicle traces, discrepancies between empirical and simulated parameter distributions are identified. Further analysis includes comparisons with default SUMO CF model parameters. The findings reveal that measured accelerations differ from CF model parameter accelerations and using the empirical value ($\mu = 0.89m/s^2$) leads to unrealistic simulations that fail volume-based calibration. Default parameters for all three models reasonably approximate the mean and median of measured parameters, but fail to capture the true distribution shape, partly due to homogeneity when using default parameters. The results show that it is more effective to simulate with the default parameters provided by SUMO rather than using measurements of real-world distributions without additional calibration. Future work will investigate closing the loop between the measured real-world and SUMO distributions using traditional calibration tactics, as well as assess the impact of calibrated vs. default CF parameters on simulation outputs like fuel consumption.

Schrader, Max (ORCID:0000000336737672)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian inference analysis of jet quenching using inclusive jet and hadron suppression measurements

The JETSCAPE Collaboration reports a new determination of the jet transport parameter $\hat{q}$ in the quark-gluon plasma (QGP) using Bayesian inference, incorporating all available inclusive hadron and jet yield suppression data measured in heavy-ion collisions at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) and the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC). This multi-observable analysis extends the previously published JETSCAPE Bayesian inference determination of $\hat{q}$, which was based solely on a selection of inclusive hadron suppression data. jetscape is a modular framework incorporating detailed dynamical models of QGP formation and evolution, and jet propagation and interaction in the QGP. Virtuality-dependent partonic energy loss in the QGP is modeled as a thermalized weakly coupled plasma, with parameters determined from Bayesian calibration using soft-sector observables. This Bayesian calibration of $\hat{q}$ utilizes active learning, a machine-learning approach, for efficient exploitation of computing resources. The experimental data included in this analysis span a broad range in collision energy and centrality, and in transverse momentum. In order to explore the systematic dependence of the extracted parameter posterior distributions, several different calibrations are reported, based on combined jet and hadron data; on jet or hadron data separately; and on restricted kinematic or centrality ranges of the jet and hadron data. Tension is observed in comparison of these variations, providing new insights into the physics of jet transport in the QGP and its theoretical formulation.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Utilizing Environmental Tracers to Reduce Groundwater Flow and Transport Model Parameter Uncertainties

Abstract Non‐uniqueness in groundwater model calibration is a primary source of uncertainty in groundwater flow and transport predictions. In this study, we investigate the ability of environmental tracer information to constrain groundwater model parameters. We utilize a pilot point calibration procedure conditioned to subsets of observed data including: liquid pressures, tritium ( 3 H), chlorofluorocarbon‐12 (CFC‐12), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ) concentrations; and groundwater apparent ages inferred from these environmental tracers, to quantify uncertainties in the heterogeneous permeability fields and infiltration rates of a steady‐state 2‐D synthetic aquifer and a transient 3‐D model of a field site located near Riverton, Wyoming (USA). To identify the relative data worth of each observation data type, the post‐calibration uncertainties of the optimal parameters for a given observation subset are compared to that from the full observation data set. Our results suggest that the calibration‐constrained permeability field uncertainties are largest when liquid pressures are used as the sole calibration data set. We find significant reduction in permeability uncertainty and increased predictive accuracy when the environmental tracer concentrations, rather than apparent groundwater ages, are used as calibration targets in the synthetic model. Calibration of the Riverton field site model using environmental tracer concentrations directly produces infiltration rate estimates with the lowest uncertainties, however; permeability field uncertainties remain similar between the environmental tracer concentration and apparent groundwater age calibration scenarios. This work provides insight on the data worth of environmental tracer information to calibrate groundwater models and highlights potential benefits of directly assimilating environmental tracer concentrations into model parameter estimation procedures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-constrained fault diagnosis framework for monitoring a standalone component of a thermal hydraulic system

A method for diagnosing faults includes receiving a description of a component of a thermal hydraulic system, where the description also indicates one or more sensors of the component. The method also includes constructing, based on a physical conservation law and using the description, a physics-based model describing operation of the component, the physics-based model including one or more unknown parameters. The method further includes calibrating the physics-based model by calculating the one or more unknown parameters using historical measurements to produce a calibrated model. Further, the method includes receiving sensor measurements captured by the one or more sensors, and calculating residuals corresponding to differences between measurements predicted by the calibrated model and the sensor measurements. The method also includes determining, based on the calculated residuals, a fault of the component or of a sensor of the one or more sensors, and generating an alert indicating the fault.

Nguyen, Tat Nghia↗
DOE OSTI2023

A combined experimental and crystal plasticity study of grain size effects in magnesium alloys

This work presents a method to incorporate the micro Hall-Petch equation into the crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) framework accounting for the microstructural features to understand the coupling between grain size, texture, and loading direction in magnesium alloys. The effect of grain size and texture is accounted for by modifying the slip resistances of individual basal and prismatic systems based on the micro Hall-Petch equation. The modification based on the micro Hall-Petch equation endows every slip system at each microstructural point with a slip system-level grain size and maximum compatibility factor, which are in turn used to modify the slip resistance. While the slip-system level grain size is a measure of the grain size, the maximum compatibility factor encodes the effect of the grain boundary on the slip system resistance modification and is computed based on the Luster-Morris factor. The model is calibrated using experimental stress-strain curves of Mg-4Al samples with three different grain sizes from which the Hall-Petch coefficients are extracted and compared with Hall-Petch coefficients predicted using original parameters from previous work. The predictability of the model is then evaluated for a Mg-4Al sample with different texture and three grain sizes subjected to loading in different directions. The calibrated parameters are then used for some parametric studies to investigate the variation of Hall-Petch slope for different degrees of simulated spread in basal texture, variation of Hall-Petch slope with loading direction relative to basal poles for a microstructure with strong basal texture, and variation of yield strength with change in grain morphology. The proposed approach to incorporate the micro Hall-Petch equation into the CPFE framework provides a foundation to quantitatively model more complicated scenarios of coupling between grain size, texture and loading direction in the plasticity of Mg alloys.

Crystal plasticity↗
DOE OSTI2020

Post-Calibration Uncertainty Analysis for Travel Times at a Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant

The Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant (NWIRP) in McGregor, Texas began manufacturing explosives in 1980 and several hazardous chemicals were discovered in lakes and streams surrounding the site in 1998. Contaminants traveled to local lakes and streams much faster than initially predicted. This research estimated contaminant travel times and identified locations where monitoring wells should be installed to yield the greatest reductions in uncertainties in travel-time predictions. To this end, groundwater and particle-tracking models for NWIRP site were built to predict hydraulic heads and contaminant travel times. Next, parameter (hydraulic conductivities) uncertainties, parameter identifiabilities, observation (hydraulic heads) worth, and predictive (contaminant travel times) uncertainties were quantified. Parameter uncertainties were reduced by up to 92%; a total of 19 of 158 parameters were at least moderately identifiable; travel-time uncertainties were reduced up to 92%. Additionally, travel-time predictions and post-calibration parameter distributions were generated using the null-space Monte Carlo (NSMC) technique. NSMC predicted that conservative tracers exited the flow system within a year, which matches with field data. Finally, an observations-worth analysis found that additional 11 more measurements would reduce travel-time uncertainties by factors from 1.04 to 4.3 over existing data if monitoring wells were installed at the suggested locations.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2025

Emulator-based Bayesian calibration of a subglacial drainage model

Subglacial drainage models, often motivated by the relationship between hydrology and ice flow, sensitively depend on numerous unconstrained parameters. We explore using borehole water-pressure time series to calibrate the uncertain parameters of a popular subglacial drainage model, taking a Bayesian perspective to quantify the uncertainty in parameter estimates and in the calibrated model predictions. To reduce the computation time associated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, we construct a fast Gaussian process emulator to stand in for the subglacial drainage model. We first carry out a calibration experiment using synthetic observations consisting of model simulations with hidden parameter values as a demonstration of the method. Using real borehole water pressures measured in western Greenland, we find meaningful constraints on four of the eight model parameters and a factor-of-three reduction in uncertainty of the calibrated model predictions. These experiments illustrate Gaussian process-based Bayesian inference as a useful tool for calibration and uncertainty quantification of complex glaciological models using field data. However, significant differences between the calibrated model and the borehole data suggest that structural limitations of the model, rather than poorly constrained parameters or computational cost, remain the most important constraint on subglacial drainage modelling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Initial Atmospheric Transport of Particles

A new version of the Initial Atmospheric Transport (IAT) model has been developed. This report fully characterizes the new model. IAT is designed to model heat release into the atmosphere that contains contaminated particles. The heat release forms a buoyant puff or plume. Buoyancy is quickly dissipated in 10's to 100's of seconds through drag and entrainment of ambient air. The final location of contaminant particles in the atmosphere after dissipation of abnormal heat is an important input to long term transportation codes such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) code. Ultimately the settling of contaminants after long term transport provides a basis for estimating health consequences. In comparison to the old version, the new model includes explicit simulation of particles, newly formulated equations of motion for a rising puff, and a new plume model. The plume model releases many instances of a single puff along a single trajectory in a way that balances energy released over a longer period than would be appropriate for a single puff. The puff model has additions for vorticity, turbulence, virtual mass, drag, and entrainment. The particle model leads to direct interfacing between IAT and the long-term transport code HYSPLIT. Previously, particle locations were given a pattern based on IAT's puff trajectory with no particle simulation. Now, particles are explicitly simulated, and 3-D spatial distributions of particles are output based on final positions. Ballistic particles are thrown outward at high velocity from explosive events and tend to hit the ground before the end of the simulation. Non-ballistic particles tend to get pulled into the rising puff s ring of vorticity with some escaping to ambient conditions as buoyant energy dissipates. A new model verification and validation effort was made for the new plume model. The Wallops Island Solid Rocket Propellant (SRP) fire plume was extracted to a 3-D transient dataset. After calibration, the model performs better than previous single puff attempts. Even so, error levels in the process used to estimate location and ambient weather conditions approach 30%. This leads to the conclusion that unplanned photogrammetry evaluations of the IAT model are useful but not sufficiently accurate to quantify model parameters. Like previous attempts, the vertical motion entrainment parameters come out much too high in comparison to values for other studies in the literature. It is suspected that a new model of shear entrainment would alleviate this problem. Unfortunately, IAT already has more calibration parameters than the data comparisons thus far can resolve with statistical certainty. This underscores the need to verify and validate the IAT model using detailed CFD studies that allow ideal statistical comparison with the IAT model for hundreds of cases. Even so, validation by comparison to carefully planned experiments (i.e. with acceptable error levels) is also necessary because the dynamics of entrainment are at a sub-grid level for CFD. Though better validation and verification are most important, many new enhancements are still envisioned for future IAT development. These include particle rain out due to condensation and agglomeration of water, direct connection to the North American Mesoscale (NAM) weather dataset, dynamic weather conditions, including ambient particle entrainment into the puff, and detrainment at the puff to ambient mixing interface. In general, including detailed aerosol dynamics is the greatest coming challenge which will require an entire new sub-model in IAT. This is very important if contaminant particles change in such a way that they increase or decrease in their potential harm to the environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Model emulation and closure tests for (3+1)D relativistic heavy-ion collisions

In nuclear and particle physics, reconciling sophisticated simulations with experimental data is vital for understanding complex systems like the Quark Gluon Plasma (QGP) generated in heavy ion collisions. However, computational demands pose challenges, motivating using Gaussian Process emulators for efficient parameter extraction via Bayesian calibration. We conduct a comparative analysis of Gaussian Process emulators in heavy-ion physics to identify the most adept emulator for parameter extraction with minimal uncertainty. Furthermore, our study contributes to advancing computational techniques in heavy-ion physics, enhancing our ability to interpret experimental data and understand QGP properties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Validation of the Community Land Model Version 5 over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) using in-situ and remote sensing datasets

The Community Land Model (CLM) is an effective tool to simulate the biophysical and biogeochemical processes and their interactions with the atmosphere. Although CLM Version 5 (CLM5) constitutes various updates in these processes, its performance in simulating energy, water and carbon cycles over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) at scales which land surface changes and hydrometeorological and hydroclimatological applications are more locally relevant is yet to be assessed. In this study, we conducted three simulations at 0.125? during 1979-2018 over the CONUS using different configurations of CLM, namely CLM5-biogeochemistry (CLM5BGC), CLM4.5BGC, and CLM5-satellite phenology (CLM5SP). We validated and compared their simulations against multiple remote-sensed and in-situ datasets. Overall, the parametric and structural updates (e.g., carbon cost for nitrogen uptake, variable soil thickness, dry surface layer) in CLM5 improve its ability in capturing terrestrial biogeochemical dynamics. The low evapotranspiration in CLM5BGC is associated with biases in simulating vegetation phenological characteristics rather than soil water limitations. The mismatch between CLM5BGC-simulated peak leaf area index and reference data can be attributed to CLM5BGC's inability in simulating phenology of trees and grasses. The differences between CLM-simulated irrigation and reference estimates can be attributed to differences between processes represented in models and in reality, and uncertainties in input and validation datasets. Evaluation against observations at small catchments suggest that hydrologic parameters needed to be calibrated to improve simulations of runoff, especially subsurface runoff. Additional efforts are needed to incorporate spatially-distributed plant phenology and physiology parameters and regional-specific agricultural management practices (e.g., planting, harvest).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗