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At least 235 records · Page 13

JUSTIFI: Software for Improving Performance Objectives via Energy Efficiency

With growing energy supply concerns and rising costs, energy efficiency is a critical component of industrial energy resilience and competitiveness by directly reducing energy operating costs. Energy efficiency projects in manufacturing also yield valuable benefits to other key metrics, such as improved quality, reduced maintenance costs, improved safety, decreased pollution, and enhanced productivity. However, it is difficult to receive approval for energy efficiency projects, so implementation rates are low, even when meeting capital project payback period criteria. The inclusion and quantification of non-energy benefits (NEBs) in the decision-making process for energy efficiency projects can improve the overall financial payback period while demonstrating a positive impact on the firm's key performance metrics and business strategy. Despite their significant financial and strategic value, NEBs are rarely factored into decision-making due to lack of tools to effectively identify and quantify them. Therefore, a comprehensive and integrative approach is needed for the rapidly evolving energy landscape. To address these challenges, through funding from U.S. Department of Energy, our new assessment methodology integrates common continuous improvement six sigma concepts, such as the DMAIC process, and a protocol of guiding questions, into energy efficiency assessments to identify NEBs. We have also developed open-source software, JUSTIFI, to guide users through this process, data collection, and quantification. It is designed to be used concurrently with DOE energy system analysis software suite, MEASUR. Our methodology and tools inform energy assessors, firm engineering, decision makers, and workforce seeking to increase energy resilience and to maximize benefits aligned with performance metrics.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Energy Cost Analysis and Operational Range Prediction Based on Medium- and Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicle Real-World Deployments across the United States

While the market for medium- and heavy-duty battery-electric vehicles (MHD EVs) is still nascent, a growing number of these vehicles are being deployed across the U.S. This study used over 2.3 million miles of operational data from multiple types of MHD EVs across various regions and operating conditions to address knowledge gaps in total cost of ownership and operational range. First, real-world energy cost savings were determined: MHD fleets should experience energy cost savings each year from 2021 to 2035, regardless of vehicle platform, with the greatest savings seen in transit buses (up to USD 4459 annually) and HD trucks (up to USD 3284 annually). Second, to help fleets across various geographies throughout the U.S. assess the suitability of EVs for their year-round operating needs, operational range was modeled using the XGBoost algorithm (R2: 70%) given 22 input features relevant to vehicle efficiency. Finally, this paper recommends (1) that MHD fleets apply energy-saving practices to minimize the impacts of cold temperatures and high congestion levels on vehicle efficiency and range, and (2) that local hauling fleets select trucks with a nominal range nearly double the expected maximum daily range to account for range losses under local, urban driving conditions.

Qiu, Yin (ORCID:0009000900948794)↗

Electrification Futures Study: Power Systems Operation with Newly Electrified and Flexible Loads

The Electrification Futures Study (EFS) is a multi-year study designed to analyze the impacts of widespread electrification in the U.S. energy system. In this webinar we present the detailed power systems operational analysis from the final report in the EFS series. For this analysis, we simulate multiple 2050 power systems for the conterminous United States to assess how variations in the magnitude and shape of electricity demand driven by electrification, and the extent of load participation to more-actively provide grid services, might impact the hourly operation, operational costs, and emissions of various power systems in 2050. The impacts of electrification and demand flexibility are overlayed across systems with significantly greater penetrations of variable renewable energy than today. Overall, we find that the high electrification scenarios envisioned in the EFS with significant VRE penetration (66% of annual national generation) can be operated to meet future increased levels of electrified demand. We also find that demand-side flexibility can enhance operational efficiency and reduce overall annual production costs by $5-$10 billion. The complementary relationship between flexible electric vehicle charging loads and solar generation is particularly pronounced, but in the absence of demand-side flexibility electrification can lead to increased wind and solar curtailment. By helping to reduce renewable curtailment, flexibility can also reduce power sector CO2 emissions. The analysis highlights the value of increased integration and coordination of demand- and supply-side resources in future electric system planning and operations—particularly under high electrification futures.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Site-specific Design Case Study for Wet Waste Hydrothermal Liquefaction and Biocrude Upgrading to Hydrocarbon Fuels

Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) is a thermal process that converts wet biomass to renewable hydrocarbon fuel blendstocks (i.e., renewable naphtha, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)). It can utilize a wide range of pure and blended wet feedstocks, including sewage sludge from water resource recovery facilities (WRRF), food and agriculture wastes, algae, fats, oils and greases (FOG) and blends of dry and wet wastes/feedstocks. Historically, techno-economic analysis (TEA) and annual state of technology (SOT) assessments with standard economic assumptions used by the Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) were conducted for the wet waste HTL pathway leveraging experimental data collected from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s (PNNL) continuous flow reactor systems. The objective of the SOT assessment has been to guide and track progress of BETO’s HTL research and development (R&D) toward reduced cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the pathway. However, gaps exist between BETO’s traditional SOT updates and the needs of key external stakeholders that – if addressed – will accelerate technology adoption. This Business Case Study aims to bridge this gap by providing an updated design, TEA, and LCA based on PNNL’s FY23 R&D with added analyses and information that provide enhanced relevance for stakeholders of the HTL technology. This includes specific siting, regional wet waste resource inventory and transportation cost analyses, fuel market information, sustainable fuel policy impacts, economic metrics of net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions analysis, and statistical analysis of cost and technical uncertainties of the HTL plant design. The study focuses on the “Detroit combined statistical area (CSA)” region for siting of a wet waste HTL plant adjacent to the Great Lakes Water Authority (GLWA) facility with guidance from industry participants. Regional resource and siting analyses were conducted to identify feedstock availability, scale, and cost, as well as a beneficial site location. TEA with detailed rigorous capital cost estimation for the specific site application was conducted to evaluate the key economic metrics of most value to industrial partners. These include total capital investment, operating costs, minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of the biocrude and fuel blendstock, and NPV and internal rate of return IRR with sustainable fuel credits. Life cycle analysis was conducted to evaluate the supply chain greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the wet waste HTL process as compared with petroleum derived diesel. This study is also informed by years of R&D and process de-risking learnings and was conducted with a basic engineering HTL plant design and costing that akin to a “first-of-a-kind” plant economics. This differs from our conventional “nth plant ” SOT assessments. Specifically, the HTL process model has been updated with more operationally reliable methods for feed heating and phase separations. Further, we have implemented additional spare equipment for redundancy, a more rigorous installed equipment cost estimation approach, and additional costs associated with feed formatting and delivery, building, piping and site development. An Excel-based cost sheet based on the basic engineering design is also released alongside the report that allows users to conduct customized TEA with their own feed composition and financial assumptions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Supporting data for Site-specific Design Case Study for Wet Waste Hydrothermal Liquefaction and Biocrude Upgrading to Hydrocarbon Fuels

Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) is a thermal process that converts wet biomass to renewable hydrocarbon fuel blendstocks (i.e., renewable naphtha, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)). It can utilize a wide range of pure and blended wet feedstocks, including sewage sludge from water resource recovery facilities (WRRF), food and agriculture wastes, algae, fats, oils and greases (FOG) and blends of dry and wet wastes/feedstocks. Historically, techno-economic analysis (TEA) and annual state of technology (SOT) assessments with standard economic assumptions used by the Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) were conducted for the wet waste HTL pathway leveraging experimental data collected from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s (PNNL) continuous flow reactor systems. The objective of the SOT assessment has been to guide and track progress of BETO’s HTL research and development (R&D) toward reduced cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the pathway. However, gaps exist between BETO’s traditional SOT updates and the needs of key external stakeholders that – if addressed – will accelerate technology adoption. This Business Case Study aims to bridge this gap by providing an updated design, TEA, and LCA based on PNNL’s FY23 R&D with added analyses and information that provide enhanced relevance for stakeholders of the HTL technology. This includes specific siting, regional wet waste resource inventory and transportation cost analyses, fuel market information, sustainable fuel policy impacts, economic metrics of net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions analysis, and statistical analysis of cost and technical uncertainties of the HTL plant design. The study focuses on the “Detroit combined statistical area (CSA)” region for siting of a wet waste HTL plant adjacent to the Great Lakes Water Authority (GLWA) facility with guidance from industry participants. Regional resource and siting analyses were conducted to identify feedstock availability, scale, and cost, as well as a beneficial site location. TEA with detailed rigorous capital cost estimation for the specific site application was conducted to evaluate the key economic metrics of most value to industrial partners. These include total capital investment, operating costs, minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of the biocrude and fuel blendstock, and NPV and internal rate of return IRR with sustainable fuel credits. Life cycle analysis was conducted to evaluate the supply chain greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the wet waste HTL process as compared with petroleum derived diesel. This study is also informed by years of R&D and process de-risking learnings and was conducted with a basic engineering HTL plant design and costing that akin to a “first-of-a-kind” plant economics. This differs from our conventional “nth plant ” SOT assessments. Specifically, the HTL process model has been updated with more operationally reliable methods for feed heating and phase separations. Further, we have implemented additional spare equipment for redundancy, a more rigorous installed equipment cost estimation approach, and additional costs associated with feed formatting and delivery, building, piping and site development. An Excel-based cost sheet based on the basic engineering design is also released alongside the report that allows users to conduct customized TEA with their own feed composition and financial assumptions.

Li, Shuyun↗

RAPID Manufacturing Institute Final Report

The Rapid Advancement of Process Intensification Deployment (RAPID) Manufacturing Institute, founded in 2017, is a public/private partnership between the U.S. Department of Energy and the American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AIChE). RAPID promotes the development, deployment and commercialization of Process Intensification (PI) and Modular Chemical Process Intensification (MCPI) technologies, enabling U.S. manufacturing to reduce energy consumption, improve process efficiencies and lower investment and operating costs. This mission was carried out through parallel work breakdown structure elements including the establishment of committees to guide the operations and technical direction of RAPID, the establishment of management practices and institute processes, education and workforce development (EWD), and six technical focus areas for the development of technologies to advance PI and MCPI. Throughout the initial six-year cooperative agreement, RAPID worked to meet performance metrics which focused on the operation and sustainment of the institute, education and workforce development and the development of PI and MCPI for the advancement of U.S. manufacturing. All these metrics were successfully met through a total of 43 projects which leveraged $\$$70M Federal with $\$$90M cost share. As a result of these efforts, 84 private and public organizations were brought together by RAPID as members to co-invest in R&D, commercialization and deployment of innovative technologies. In the research portfolio, 82% of the 38 projects achieved > 20% energy efficiency improvement. A RAPID Test Network was developed with 51 testbed facilities to enable access to resources, facilities, tools, and expertise. Eight EWD programs were also developed with over 13,000 impressions. RAPID’s efforts to research, develop, demonstrate, and deploy high-impact PI and modular process technology solutions have enabled reduced energy use, increased sustainability, and improved profitability for U.S. manufacturing.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

THERMAL ANALYSIS AND DESIGN OF SELF-HEATING MOLDS USING LARGE-SCALE ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING FOR OUT-OF-AUTOCLAVE APPLICATIONS

Autoclave processing is a commonly used state-of-the-art fiber-reinforced composite manufacturing technology, albeit high capital cost, long cycle times and high energy consumption. Alternatively, out-of-autoclave processing reduces the initial and operating costs while producing composite structures with similar quality as that of autoclave parts. Additive Manufacturing (AM) the scaled-up molds for out-of-autoclave process using carbon fiber (CF) reinforced composite offers design flexibility, enhanced mechanical, and thermal properties in addition to reduction in weight and cost. However, heating of these molds using an oven is still expensive and necessitates an energy-efficient heating process. In this study, resistive heating through heating elements embedded within fiber reinforced composite molds is used as an efficient heating mechanism. The goal is to design wire embeddings and determine the optimal heat flux density to achieve a target uniform temperature of 1000C across the mold surface. To this end, numerical analyses were performed to evaluate the temperature distribution across the composite mold surface for a given wire placement and mold configuration. Constant thermal properties of the 20 wt.% short CF reinforced acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) were used in the thermal analysis. Time taken to reach the steady state temperature was also estimated. Design guidelines for wire embeddings were included to enable efficient manufacturing of fiber-reinforced composites through out-of-autoclave molds.

Pokkalla, Deepak↗

Helium recovery system at IB3a

The increasing need for optimal and sustainable use of cryogenic resources to support Fermilab’s scientific mission has highlighted the necessity of improving the Laboratory’s helium management practices. An assessment of cryogenic test facilities identified the Technical Division’s Industrial Building 3a (IB3A) as a key site requiring upgrades to integrate a helium recovery system. The IB3A facility is essential for characterizing and testing superconductors, cables, and coils for various R&D projects, including the US High-Luminosity LHC Accelerator Upgrade Project (AUP), Mu2e, and other external collaborations. Currently, the facility relies on 500 L helium Dewars and vents the vaporized helium directly into the atmosphere, leading to significant helium loss. Given the non-renewable nature of helium, recovering and reusing this resource is critical for the sustainability of Fermilab’s operations. To address this challenge, a project has been initiated to connect IB3A to an existing helium purification station and refrigeration system located in another building via a dedicated pipeline pass over the roof of several buildings. This solution will enable the efficient capture of vented helium, its transfer to the purification station, and subsequent liquefaction for reuse in future operations. The project includes a detailed design phase, specifying the pipeline route, flow control mechanisms, and integration with the existing cryogenic infrastructure, followed by phased implementation and commissioning. By implementing this pipeline connection and upgrading IB3A, Fermilab aims to significantly reduce helium waste, lower operational costs, and align with its commitment to sustainability. This initiative provides a model for resource-efficient cryogenic operations and reinforces the Laboratory’s capacity to support its science mission for the long term.

Porwisiak, D. [Fermilab]↗

Mapping of a Novel Zero-Liquid Discharge Desalination System Based on Humidification–Dehumidification onto the Field of Existing Desalination Technologies

It is well-established that increasing demands for fresh water are paving the way for desalination technologies. However, this correlates with an increase in brine production whose treatment and disposal can be complicated and expensive. This paper presents a thermodynamic model to bound the operation and development of a novel Humidification–Dehumidification-based system featuring Zero-Liquid Discharge and off-grid capabilities. The model employs conservation laws to find feasible state points to meet a baseline operation of 10 kg/h of product water separated from a hypersaline feed stream with 100 g/kg salt concentration. The system incurs in a 1039 kWh/m3 energy intensity that can be supplied completely by an electric source or in combination with heating steam. Follow-up sensitivity analysis highlights the robustness of the system in handling variations of 25% in product flowrate and 75% in feed salinity, practically without incurring any additional energy demands. The proposed system operating costs between 72 USD/m3 and 96 USD/m3 are comparable to those of existing brine disposal techniques. Furthermore, an operational map of existing desalination technologies suggests a niche characterized by high recovery rates and high feed salinities that are generally unfulfilled by conventional desalination methods. Overall, the proposed system shows potential for off-grid hypersaline brine treatment. This study sets the stage for future development of physics-based and data-driven predictive models as the proposed system iterates into a pilot plant deployment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Optimization-based modeling and economic comparison of membrane distillation configurations for application in shale gas produced water treatment

Membrane distillation (MD) is an emerging membrane technology with great potential for treatment of hypersaline wastewater generated by unconventional (shale) oil and gas reservoirs. However, the low energy efficiency of this technology makes the operating cost of MD systems relatively high, especially in the absence of waste heat. There are several MD configurations with inherent advantages and disadvantages and varying performance. As such, there is a need for thermo-economic optimization of MD systems in a systematic manner to assess their economic performance. Here we present an optimization framework to model and compare the performance of six MD configurations (DCMD, AGMD, PGMD, CGMD, SGMD, and VMD) in continuous recirculation mode for treatment of hypersaline wastewater. The optimization results show that AGMD with small gap size operated at low stream Reynolds number outperforms all other configurations with treatment cost of 4.57 US $/m 3 of feed. However, restricting the system design to more practically relevant operating conditions, such as higher Reynolds number and larger gap size, diminishes the cost superiority of AGMD over other configurations. We also observed that treatment cost using PGMD configuration approaches those of CGMD and DCMD, particularly when modules with small gaps are used.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Optimizing first- and last-mile public transit services leveraging transportation network companies (TNC)

First-mile last-mile (FMLM) mobility services that connect riders to public transit can lead to improved transit accessibility and network efficiency if such services are convenient and reliable. However, many current FMLM services are inefficient and costly because they are inflexible (e.g., fixed supply of shuttles) and do not leverage collected data for optimized decision making. At the same time, new forms of shared mobility can provide added flexibility and real-time analytics to FMLM systems when carefully integrated. This study evaluates performance and cost implications of public/private coordination between transit shuttles and transportation network companies (TNC) in the FMLM context. A real-time operations model was developed to simulate daily operations for an existing FMLM system using real-world demand data. Three supply strategies were tested with varying levels of flexibility: (1) Status Quo (two 23-passenger on-demand shuttles), (2) Hybrid (one 23-passenger on-demand shuttle + TNC), and (3) TNC Only (exclusively use TNC services). Results indicated that the added flexibility of the Hybrid service design (using shuttles and TNCs) improved service performance (a 7.7% improvement), reduced daily operating costs (– 6.0%), and improved service reliability (95th percentile travel times decreased by up to 40% during peak periods). In addition, the Hybrid service design was more robust to variations in demand. Here, the Hybrid service was significantly cheaper to operate (– 31.6%) at reduced demand levels (50% of normal), and improved service performance (a 10.2% improvement) when demand levels were increased (150% of normal). These findings emphasize the importance of flexibility in FMLM service designs, especially when demand is sparse and variable.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Development of Analysis Methods that Integrate Numeric and Textual Equipment Reliability Data

Within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program, the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway is performing collaborative research on the development and deployment of technologies designed to assist operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) to reduce operating costs improve plant reliability and availability. One of the RISA research areas is focusing on the development of methods and tools designed to optimize plant operations (e.g., maintenance/replacement schedules, optimal maintenance postures for plant structures, systems, and components [SSCs]) in a manner that is more cost effective than current approaches and makes better use of available SSC health data. The Risk-Informed Asset Management (RIAM) project targets this research area by creating a direct bridge between component equipment reliability (ER) data and system engineer decision making regarding maintenance activity scheduling and component aging management. In this respect, one challenge that NPP system engineers are facing is that the amount of ER data being continuously generated is not only extremely large in size, but it comes in different forms: textual (e.g., condition or maintenance reports) and numeric (e.g., generated by monitoring systems). All these data elements provide them with valuable insights and information regarding: 1) the discovery of anomalous behaviors or degradation trends, 2) the identification of the possible causes behind such behaviors/trends, and 3) the prediction of their direct consequences. However, several challenges have proved to be roadblocks to this process. While some of these challenges are technical in nature (i.e., data are often distributed over several physical servers/databases), others are conceptual in nature: data elements come in different formats (e.g., numeric or textual), and measured values have different scales (e.g., vibration spectra and oil temperature). The activities performed by the RIAM project during FY23 directly tackles the need to simultaneously integrate the analysis of ER data in all its forms, numeric and textual. Note that such task has never been performed before due to the complexity of the systems under consideration but, most importantly, because of the technical challenges behind the harmonization of ER data formats and the lack of adequate computational methods to analyze them. Our approach borrows ideas and concepts from the medical field where integration of several data sources is vital to assist medical practitioners to perform correct diagnosis and indicate optimal treatments. In our view a NPP asset is equivalent to a patient in a medical context. The main difference is the complexity of a human body is a magnitude more complex when compared to typical assets commonly present in NPPs (e.g., centrifugal pumps, or motor operated valves). This simplifies our first requirement when analyzing heterogenous ER data formats: to put data into “context”. Context is here intended as the additional piece of information that is needed by ER data analysis tools to understand what these data elements are referring to, i.e., which king of knowledge they are generating. In our context, this knowledge can be translated into models that capture the form and functional architecture of assets/systems, their dependencies, and how they interact. These models actually emulate the knowledge that that NPP system engineers possess about assets and systems; this is their key of success when analyzing ER data, their challenge is ability to handle large amount of data. Here, we employ model-based system engineering (MBSE) models of systems and assets to represent and capture their architecture and functional, i.e. cause-effect, relations. Then, ER data elements are processed by identifying first of all which elements of the developed MBSE elements they are referring to. For numeric ER data this task is fairly easy since it is possible to precisely pinpoint what MBSE elements the corresponding sensor are observing (e.g., bearing temperature of a centrifugal pump). Task is much harder for textual data since the information contained in issue or maintenance reports needs to “be understood” by a computational tool. Here we called this process as “knowledge extraction”. Once again, we borrow the experience in the medical field where methods to extract knowledge from textual data have been developed in the past decade. The missing element for us is the availability of a complete dictionary of NPP related concepts (in addition to the MBSE models presented earlier) that can put “text into context”. In FY23, such dictionary has been developed along with all the computational elements required for knowledge extraction. Lastly, once numeric and textual ER data elements have been processed and “understood”, then the last step is the discovery of possible cause-effect relations among them. This is performed by observing if a logical connection through the MBSE models exists, and if the

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Optimized Gear Selection to Maximize Energy Savings in Electric Traction Drives for Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicles

Multi‑gear transmission systems are commonly used in electric traction drives for medium and heavy‑duty vehicles, while most passenger‑vehicle electric drivetrains rely on a single fixed ratio to reduce cost, weight, and complexity. Using multiple gear ratios can enable downsizing of the motor and inverter while still meeting performance requirements. Additionally, appropriately chosen ratios allow the motor to operate more frequently in high‑efficiency regions, improving overall energy usage and reducing operating costs over the drive cycle. This paper presents a systematic approach for selecting optimal gear ratios for electric drive systems. A neural‑network model is first developed to represent motor losses across the full torque–speed range using data generated from finite element analysis. This model enables fast, accurate evaluation of motor efficiency under varying operating conditions. A genetic‑algorithm‑based optimization framework is then applied to identify gear ratios that maximize energy cost savings over the drive cycle, with the resulting optimal ratios stored for real‑time implementation.

Gadiyar, Nishanth [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000348267524)↗

T3CO (Transportation Technology Total Cost of Ownership) Open Source [SWR-21-54]

T3CO (Transportation Technology Total Cost of Ownership), is open source software for modeling total cost of ownership for commercial vehicles with advanced powertrains. T3CO is a modeling framework for determining geospatially and temporally optimized total cost of ownership (TCO) for vehicle powertrain technologies. T3CO runs NREL's FASTSim™ software for a representative set of operating conditions to minimize TCO based on vehicle parameters that affect purchase and operating costs (e.g., fuel/electricity consumption, asset depreciation, opportunity costs associated with charging time) while simultaneously ensuring that firm performance constraints (e.g. zero-to-sixty time, gradeability) are satisfied. T3CO will enable the user to control which powertrain parameters are used in optimizing TCO, and these parameters will be modified by a multi-objective optimization (MOO) algorithm to identify a Pareto-optimal solution set. The optimization algorithm will be modular so that users can choose from many different MOO options or insert their own user-defined optimization tool. NREL T3CO Homepage: https://www.nrel.gov/transportation/t3co.html PyPI package: https://pypi.org/project/t3co/

Lustbader, Jason↗

Attack Surface Analysis of the Digital Twins interface with Advanced Sensor and Instrumentation Interfaces: Cyber Threat Assessment and Attack Demonstration for Digital Twins in Advanced Reactor Architectures

A digital twin is a virtual representation of a physical system or object using real-time data that can predict and analyze how the system or object performs. This relatively new technology can be applied to the field of nuclear power generation, to aid in the design and development of new nuclear power plants and reduce operation costs using predictive maintenance and other data analytical methods. While there are already companies utilizing simulation software to train operators and technicians in the nuclear industry, some are now transitioning to utilizing their existing technology, software, and methods to develop digital twin solutions for the next generation of nuclear power plants, offering their services to utilities and government organizations around the world.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Integrated Thermal Energy Storage System for Air-Conditioners with Phase-Change Composites

Thermal energy storage (TES) is a promising solution to store and dispatch energy and shave peak electric load, reducing the operational cost of HVAC systems. We present results of a TES system using phase-change materials (PCM) integrated with an air conditioner. The proposed system uses an organic PCM (tetradecane) encapsulated within compressed expanded natural graphite foams referred to as phase-change composite. The graphite foam encapsulates the PCM eliminating the need for expensive storage vessels, reduces installation costs, and provides higher thermal conductivity that can lead to faster charge/discharge rates. Two serpentines, multi-pass circuits, operating as a heat source and a sink, exchange heat to and from the phase-change composite. These two circuits are embedded in multiple slabs of this material. The "charge" circuit contains the refrigerant that is directly coupled to a vapor compression system, and the "discharge" circuit removes heat from an airstream and releases it into the PCM composite through a water-glycol liquid coupling. This configuration allows for multiple modes of operation depending on the state of charge of the thermal energy storage module, the building air-conditioning load, and the current electricity and demand charges. This flexible operation allows variable air volume capacity control without the need to have a variable capacity refrigeration system. We developed a 21 kW-hr (6 RT-hr) prototype TES system coupled with a commercial air-conditioner to characterize the component-and system-level performance.

air-conditioning↗

One-Step Ahead Prediction of Thermal Mixing Tee Sensors with Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Neural Networks

High-temperature advanced reactors under development, such as sodium fast reactors (SFR) and molten salt cooled reactors (MSCR), are expected to offer lower levelized cost of energy (LCOE) compared to existing light water reactor (LWR’s). In the existing light water reactors (LWR’s), operation and maintenance (O&M) expenses constitute the largest fraction of the total operating cost. Some of the O&M costs are related maintenance of sensors which can fail due to exposure to harsh environment in a reactor. The O&M costs of Advanced Reactor (AR)’s are expected to constitute a significant fraction of the total cost as well, because of high temperature and radiation level in AR are likely to cause material fatigue and premature failure of sensors and components. The O&M costs in AR’s could be reduced through integration of advanced informatics of performance-related sensors into a digital twin designed for reactor monitoring. For example, machine learning (ML) could be employed for real-time validation and correction of performance-related sensors, and reducing the number of performance-related physical sensor units through virtual sensing. As part of the effort, we investigate real-time validation of thermal hydraulic sensors through one-step ahead forecasting of sensor values using long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks (RNN). The sensors are installed in a flow loop containing a thermal mixing tee, which is a common experimental model to study thermal fatigue in a thermal hydraulic loop. In addition, nonlinear transients generated in a thermal mixing tee constitute a good challenge data set for training and validation of ML algorithms. Sensors in this study include thermocouples, flow meters, and optical fibers for distributed temperature sensing. In one experiment, measurement data sets were obtained for a loop was filled with water, and in another experiment, measurements were performed on a loop filled with liquid metal Galinstan. We have also conducted preliminary investigation of one-step ahead prediction of fiber optics-based distributed temperature sensing with LSTM networks. In predicting fiber-based temperature measurements, we treated each gauge pitch of the fiber as an independent sensor. Accuracy of one-step ahead forecasting was estimated by calculating root mean square error (RMSE) for the test segment of time series of each sensor. RMSE’s for temperature sensors in water loop were, for the most part, lower than for the same sensors in Galinstan loop. The RMSE’s for flow meters were similar for both loops. The RMSE’s for distributed temperature measured with the fiber optic sensor were similar to those of the point sensors. Results of this study demonstrated the capability of LSTM one-step ahead forecasting with RMSE comparable to uncertainty in sensor measurements.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Progressing Analysis of Variable Electric Rates (PAVER) Study

The Progressing Analysis of Variable Electric Rates (PAVER) study analyzed the impact of a range of time-varying electric rates on the performance of a regional electric grid and the resulting costs for participating and non-participating customers. This analysis leveraged and extended the work of PNNL’s Distribution System Operator with Transactive (DSO+T) study. Five different rate designs were included: a flat volumetric energy charge, a typical Time of Use (TOU) rate, a dynamic energy (DE) rate (based on wholesale locational marginal prices), a dynamic energy and capacity (DE+C) rate, and, finally, a Block and Swing (B&S) rate that billed customers based on their average load profile at constant pricing, but used the DE+C dynamic price for load deviations from their average profile. These rates were analyzed in a large-scale co-simulation of an entire regional grid with a customer population representative of the current state. A large fraction (80%) of residential and commercial customers were assumed to participate in these time-varying rates with automatically controlled HVAC, water heaters, electric vehicles, and batteries. This study assumed no industrial sector participation. The DE and DE+C rates saw system peak loads reduced by 6-7%, while the large participation in the TOU rate case saw a significant rebound effect and a resulting peak load increase of >5%. The impacts to the annual and peak system demand impacted system wholesale prices and the overall grid operating costs. This cost structure determined the revenue needed to be collected from customers by each rate design. Participating customers on the DE and DE+C rates (located in one of the modeled DSOs) saw reductions in average annual electricity bills of 11-17% with average increases in monthly bill variation of no more than 13%. At such high participation levels, TOU customers saw 10% higher average annual bills (due to system-wide rebound effects) and average increased monthly bill variation of 16%. Residential owners of large flexible loads (such as electric vehicles) saw larger bill savings (17-20%) when on a fully dynamic rate. The presence of on-site generation (such as rooftop solar) did not appear to appreciably change customer outcomes. Customers on the Block and Swing rate did see 6% lower monthly bill variation (as intended) than the flat rate case, but at the expense of appreciable bill savings, which were only 3%, comparable to the savings seen by non-participants. Given this finding we recommend that additional research be conducted into how best various bill protection mechanisms can balance minimizing customer bill variation with providing financial incentives commensurate with the flexibility customers provide. We also recommend that customer outcomes be explored across a range of regions using current actual customer and system cost data.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗