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NASA NTRS2015

Techniques for Estimating Emissions Factors from Forest Burning: ARCTAS and SEAC4RS Airborne Measurements Indicate Which Fires Produce Ozone

Previous studies of emission factors from biomass burning are prone to large errors since they ignore the interplay of mixing and varying pre-fire background CO2 levels. Such complications severely affected our studies of 446 forest fire plume samples measured in the Western US by the science teams of NASA's SEAC4RS and ARCTAS airborne missions. Consequently we propose a Mixed Effects Regression Emission Technique (MERET) to check techniques like the Normalized Emission Ratio Method (NERM), where use of sequential observations cannot disentangle emissions and mixing. We also evaluate a simpler "consensus" technique. All techniques relate emissions to fuel burned using C(sub burn) = delta C(sub tot) added to the fire plume, where C(sub tot) approximately equals (CO2 + CO). Mixed-effects regression can estimate pre-fire background values of Ctot (indexed by observation j) simultaneously with emissions factors indexed by individual species i, delta epsilon lambda tau alpha−x(sub i)/(C(sub burn))i,j., MERET and "consensus" require more than two emissions indicators. Our studies excluded samples where exogenous CO or CH4 might have been fed into a fire plume, mimicking emission. We sought to let the data on 13 gases and particulate properties suggest clusters of variables and plume types, using non-negative matrix factorization (NMF). While samples were mixtures, the NMF unmixing suggested purer burn types. Particulate properties (bscat, babs, SSA, AAE) and gas-phase emissions were interrelated. Finally, we sought a simple categorization useful for modeling ozone production in plumes. Two kinds of fires produced high ozone: those with large fuel nitrogen as evidenced by remnant CH3CN in the plumes, and also those from very intense large burns. Fire types with optimal ratios of delta-NOy/delta- HCHO associate with the highest additional ozone per unit Cburn, Perhaps these plumes exhibit limited NOx binding to reactive organics. Perhaps these plumes exhibit limited NOx binding to reactive organics.

fires↗

NASA NTRS2016

Techniques for Estimating Emissions Factors from Forest Burning: ARCTAS and SEAC4RS Airborne Measurements Indicate which Fires Produce Ozone

Previous studies of emission factors from biomass burning are prone to large errors since they ignore the interplay of mixing and varying pre-fire background CO2 levels. Such complications severely affected our studies of 446 forest fire plume samples measured in the Western US by the science teams of NASA's SEAC4RS and ARCTAS airborne missions. Consequently we propose a Mixed Effects Regression Emission Technique (MERET) to check techniques like the Normalized Emission Ratio Method (NERM), where use of sequential observations cannot disentangle emissions and mixing. We also evaluate a simpler "consensus" technique. All techniques relate emissions to fuel burned using C(burn) = delta C(tot) added to the fire plume, where C(tot) approximately equals (CO2 = CO). Mixed-effects regression can estimate pre-fire background values of C(tot) (indexed by observation j) simultaneously with emissions factors indexed by individual species i, delta, epsilon lambda tau alpha-x(sub I)/C(sub burn))I,j. MERET and "consensus" require more than emissions indicators. Our studies excluded samples where exogenous CO or CH4 might have been fed into a fire plume, mimicking emission. We sought to let the data on 13 gases and particulate properties suggest clusters of variables and plume types, using non-negative matrix factorization (NMF). While samples were mixtures, the NMF unmixing suggested purer burn types. Particulate properties (b scant, b abs, SSA, AAE) and gas-phase emissions were interrelated. Finally, we sought a simple categorization useful for modeling ozone production in plumes. Two kinds of fires produced high ozone: those with large fuel nitrogen as evidenced by remnant CH3CN in the plumes, and also those from very intense large burns. Fire types with optimal ratios of delta-NOy/delta- HCHO associate with the highest additional ozone per unit Cburn, Perhaps these plumes exhibit limited NOx binding to reactive organics. Perhaps these plumes exhibit limited NOx binding to reactive organics

ozone↗

NASA NTRS2017

CEDAR-GEM Challenge for Systematic Assessment of Ionosphere/Thermosphere Models in Predicting TEC During the 2006 December Storm Event

In order to assess current modeling capability of reproducing storm impacts on total electron content (TEC), we considered quantities such as TEC, TEC changes compared to quiet time values, and the maximum value of the TEC and TEC changes during a storm. We compared the quantities obtained from ionospheric models against ground-based GPS TEC measurements during the 2006 AGU storm event (14-15 December 2006) in the selected eight longitude sectors. We used 15 simulations obtained from eight ionospheric models, including empirical, physics-based, coupled ionosphere-thermosphere, and data assimilation models. To quantitatively evaluate performance of the models in TEC prediction during the storm, we calculated skill scores such as RMS error, Normalized RMS error (NRMSE), ratio of the modeled to observed maximum increase (Yield), and the difference between the modeled peak time and observed peak time. Furthermore, to investigate latitudinal dependence of the performance of the models, the skill scores were calculated for five latitude regions. Our study shows that RMSE of TEC and TEC changes of the model simulations range from about 3 TECU (total electron content unit, 1 TECU = 1016 el m2) (in high latitudes) to about 13 TECU (in low latitudes), which is larger than latitudinal average GPS TEC error of about 2 TECU. Most model simulations predict TEC better than TEC changes in terms of NRMSE and the difference in peak time, while the opposite holds true in terms of Yield. Model performance strongly depends on the quantities considered, the type of metrics used, and the latitude considered.

Shim, J. S.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Deformable subreflector computed by geometric optics

Using a Cassegrainian geometry, the 64-meter antenna with its distorted paraboloidal reflecting surface is forced to produce a uniform phase wavefront by a pathlength-compensating subreflector. First, the computed distortion vectors at the joints or nodes of the main reflector structure supporting the surface panels are best fitted to a paraboloid. Second, the resulting residual distortion errors are used to determine a compensating subreflector surface by ray tracing using geometric optics principles. Third, the totally corrected subreflector surface is defined by the normal directions and distances to the surface of the original symmetric hyperboloid for the purpose of evaluation. Finally, contour maps of distortions of the paraboloid reflector and the compensating subreflector are presented. A field-measured check of the subreflector in focused position as computed by the described methodology is also presented for the antenna position at horizon look with the geometry at 45 degrees elevation.

Katow, M. S.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Experimental study of error sources in skin-friction balance measurements

An experimental study has been performed to determine potential error sources in skin-friction balance measurements. A floating-element balance, large enough to contain the instrumentation needed to systematically investigate these error sources has been constructed and tested in the thick turbulent boundary layer on the sidewall of a large supersonic wind tunnel. Test variables include element-to-case misalignment, gap size, and Reynolds number. The effects of these variables on the friction, lip, and normal forces have been analyzed. It was found that larger gap sizes were preferable to smaller ones; that small element recession below the surrounding test surface produced errors comparable to the same amount of protrusion above the test surface; and that normal forces on the element were, in some cases, large compared to the friction force.

Allen, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS2001

A stochastic differential equation model of diurnal cortisol patterns

Circadian modulation of episodic bursts is recognized as the normal physiological pattern of diurnal variation in plasma cortisol levels. The primary physiological factors underlying these diurnal patterns are the ultradian timing of secretory events, circadian modulation of the amplitude of secretory events, infusion of the hormone from the adrenal gland into the plasma, and clearance of the hormone from the plasma by the liver. Each measured plasma cortisol level has an error arising from the cortisol immunoassay. We demonstrate that all of these three physiological principles can be succinctly summarized in a single stochastic differential equation plus measurement error model and show that physiologically consistent ranges of the model parameters can be determined from published reports. We summarize the model parameters in terms of the multivariate Gaussian probability density and establish the plausibility of the model with a series of simulation studies. Our framework makes possible a sensitivity analysis in which all model parameters are allowed to vary simultaneously. The model offers an approach for simultaneously representing cortisol's ultradian, circadian, and kinetic properties. Our modeling paradigm provides a framework for simulation studies and data analysis that should be readily adaptable to the analysis of other endocrine hormone systems.

NASA Discipline Space Human Factors↗

NASA NTRS2019

Gravitational Changes of the Earth's Free Oscillation From Earthquakes: Theory and Feasibility Study Using GRACE Inter‐Satellite Tracking

GRACE satellites have detected regional‐scale preseismic, coseismic, and postseismic gravity changes associated with great earthquakes during the GRACE era (2002‐2017). Earthquakes also excite global‐scale transient gravity changes associated with free oscillations that may be discerned for a few days. In this study, we examine such global gravity changes due to Earth's free oscillations and quantify how they affect GRACE measurements. We employ the normal mode formalism to synthesize the global gravity changes after the 2004 Sumatra earthquake and simulate the (gravitational) free oscillation signals manifested in the GRACE K‐band ranging (KBR) measurements. Using the Kaula orbit perturbation theory, we show how GRACE inter‐satellite distances are perturbed through a complex coupling of eigenfrequencies of the normal modes with the Earth's rotation rate and the GRACE satellites' orbital frequency. It is found that a few gravest normal modes can generate range‐rate perturbations as large as 0.2 μm/s, which are comparable to actual errors of GRACE KBR ranging and accelerometer instruments. Wavelet time‐frequency analysis of the GRACE KBR residual data in December 2004 reveals the existence of a significant transient signal after the 2004 Sumatra earthquake. This transient signal is characterized by a frequency of ~0.022 mHz that could be potentially associated with the largest excitation due to the “football” mode of the Earth's free oscillation. However, the results are also affected by low‐frequency noise of the GRACE accelerometers. Improved space‐borne gravitational instrumentation may open new opportunities to study the Earth's interior and earthquakes independently from global seismological analysis.

Ghobadi-Far, Khosro↗

DOE OSTI2025

Constraints on neutrino physics from DESI DR2 BAO and DR1 full shape

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Collaboration has obtained robust measurements of baryon acoustic oscillations in the redshift range 0.1 < 𝑧 < 4.2, based on the Lyman-𝛼 forest and galaxies from data release 2. We combine these measurements with cosmic microwave background (CMB) data from Planck and the Atacama Cosmology Telescope to place our tightest constraints yet on the sum of neutrino masses. Assuming the cosmological Λ⁢ CDM model and three degenerate neutrino states, we find ∑𝑚 𝜈 < 0.0642 eV (95%) with a marginalized error of 𝜎⁡(∑𝑚 𝜈 ) = 0.020 eV. We also constrain the effective number of neutrino species, finding 𝑁 eff = 3.2⁢3$^{+0.35}_{−0.34}$ (95%), in line with the Standard Model prediction. When accounting for neutrino oscillation constraints, we find a preference for the normal mass ordering and an upper limit on the lightest neutrino mass of 𝑚 𝑙 < 0.023 eV (95%). However, we determine using frequentist and Bayesian methods that our constraints are in tension with the lower limits derived from neutrino oscillations. Correcting for the physical boundary at zero mass, we report a 95% Feldman-Cousins upper limit of ∑𝑚 𝜈 < 0.053 eV, breaching the lower limit from neutrino oscillations. Considering a more general Bayesian analysis with an effective cosmological neutrino mass parameter, ∑𝑚 𝜈,eff , that allows for negative energy densities and removes unsatisfactory prior weight effects, we derive constraints that are in 3⁢𝜎 tension with the same oscillation limit, while the error rises to 𝜎⁡(∑𝑚 𝜈,eff ) = 0.053 eV. In the absence of unknown systematics, this finding could be interpreted as a hint of new physics not necessarily related to neutrinos. The preference of DESI and CMB data for an evolving dark energy model offers one possible solution. In the 𝑤 0 ⁢𝑤 𝑎 ⁢CDM model, we find ∑𝑚 𝜈 < 0.163 eV (95%), relaxing the neutrino tension. These constraints all rely on the effects of neutrinos on the cosmic expansion history. Using full-shape power spectrum measurements of data release 1 galaxies, we place complementary constraints that rely on neutrino free streaming. Our strongest such limit in Λ ⁢CDM, using selected CMB priors, is ∑𝑚 𝜈 < 0.193 eV (95%).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1996

AO 0235+164 and Surrounding Field: Surprising HST Results

Results obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope on the highly variable radio, x-ray, and gamma-ray emitting QSO (or BL Lac object) AO 0235 + 164 are presented and analyzed. WFPC2 images were obtained in 1994 June, when AO 0235 + 164 was bright (m approx. 17), and the results are described in Sec. 3. After subtraction of the PSF of the QSO, hereafter called AO following the nomenclature of Yanny et al. (1989), the companion object named A, 2 sec south of AO, is discovered not to be an elliptical galaxy as hypothesized earlier, but to be an AGN object, with a central UV-bright point-source nucleus and faint surrounding nebulosity extending to AO. The second companion object 1.3 sec east of AO discovered by Yanny et al. (1989) and named object Al, appears more like a normal spiral galaxy. We have measured the positions, luminosities, and colors of some 30 faint objects in the field around AO 0235 + 16; most are extended and may be star-forming galaxies in a loose group or cluster. Our most surprising result of the HST observations comes from FOS spectra obtained in 1995 July, discussed in Sec. 4. Because of a positioning error of the telescope and AO's faintness at that time (m approx. 20), object A was observed instead of the intended target AO. Serendipitously, we discovered A to have broad deep BALQSO-type absorptions of C IV, Si IV, N V shortward of broad emissions. A is thus ejecting high velocity, highly ionized gas into the surrounding IGM. We discuss in Sec. 5 the relationship of the objects in the central 10 sec X 1O sec region around AO, where redshifts z(sub e) = 0.94, z(sub a) = 0.524, 0.851 in AO, (sub e) = 0.524 and Z(sub BAL)=0.511 in A, are found. We hypothesize that some of the 30 faint objects in the 77 sec. x 77 sec. field may be part of a large star-forming region at z approx. 0.5, as suggested for a few objects by Yanny et al. (1989). The proximity of two highly active extragalactic objects, AO 0235+164 and its AGN companion A, is remarkable and one of the authors (EMB) suggests it may require consideration of a non-cosmological component of redshift in AO 0235+164.

Burbidge, E. M.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Analysis of Aircraft Control Performance using a Fuzzy Rule Base Representation of the Cooper-Harper Aircraft Handling Quality Rating

The Cooper-Harper rating of Aircraft Handling Qualities has been adopted as a standard for measuring the performance of aircraft since it was introduced in 1966. Aircraft performance, ability to control the aircraft, and the degree of pilot compensation needed are three major key factors used in deciding the aircraft handling qualities in the Cooper- Harper rating. We formulate the Cooper-Harper rating scheme as a fuzzy rule-based system and use it to analyze the effectiveness of the aircraft controller. The automatic estimate of the system-level handling quality provides valuable up-to-date information for diagnostics and vehicle health management. Analyzing the performance of a controller requires a set of concise design requirements and performance criteria. Ir, the case of control systems fm a piloted aircraft, generally applicable quantitative design criteria are difficult to obtain. The reason for this is that the ultimate evaluation of a human-operated control system is necessarily subjective and, with aircraft, the pilot evaluates the aircraft in different ways depending on the type of the aircraft and the phase of flight. In most aerospace applications (e.g., for flight control systems), performance assessment is carried out in terms of handling qualities. Handling qualities may be defined as those dynamic and static properties of a vehicle that permit the pilot to fully exploit its performance in a variety of missions and roles. Traditionally, handling quality is measured using the Cooper-Harper rating and done subjectively by the human pilot. In this work, we have formulated the rules of the Cooper-Harper rating scheme as fuzzy rules with performance, control, and compensation as the antecedents, and pilot rating as the consequent. Appropriate direct measurements on the controller are related to the fuzzy Cooper-Harper rating system: a stability measurement like the rate of change of the cost function can be used as an indicator if the aircraft is under control; the tracking error is a good measurement for performance needed in the rating scheme. Finally, the change of the control amount or the output of a confidence tool, which has been developed by the authors, can be used as an indication of pilot compensation. We use a number of known aircraft flight scenarios with known pilot ratings to calibrate our fuzzy membership functions. These include normal flight conditions and situations in which partial or complete failure of tail, aileron, engine, or throttle occurs.

Tseng, Chris↗

DOE OSTI2020

Optimal sensor network design for multi-scale, time-varying differential algebraic equation systems: Application to an entrained-flow gasifier refractory brick

An algorithm for optimal sensor network design for multi-scale, time-varying differential algebraic equation systems with non-separable dynamics is presented. As the process is time-varying, an integral normalized posterior error covariance of a multi-scale filter is minimized to obtain the optimal sensor locations. For reducing the computational cost, an adaptive sampling rate approach is considered for the slowly-varying variables. The algorithm is applied to a smart refractory brick with embedded sensors as part of an entrained-flow gasifier. Thermistors and interdigital capacitors are considered as candidate measurement technologies for estimating temperature and slag penetration profile along the gasifier wall. Finally, when the optimal set of sensors obtained from the algorithm is used for estimating temperature and slag penetration profiles in a multi-scale Kalman filter framework, satisfactory estimates are obtained despite high measurement noise and model mismatch.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Neutron Mean Life and Big Bang Nucleosynthesis

We explore the effect of neutron lifetime and its uncertainty on standard big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN). BBN describes the cosmic production of the light nuclides, 1H, D, 3H+3He, 4He, and 7Li+7Be, in the first minutes of cosmic time. The neutron mean life τn has two roles in modern BBN calculations: (1) it normalizes the matrix element for weak n↔p interconversions, and (2) it sets the rate of free neutron decay after the weak interactions freeze-out. We review the history of the interplay between τn measurements and BBN, and present a study of the sensitivity of the light element abundances to the modern neutron lifetime measurements. We find that τn uncertainties dominate the predicted 4He error budget, but these theory errors remain smaller than the uncertainties in 4He observations, even with the dispersion in recent neutron lifetime measurements. For the other light element predictions, τn contributes negligibly to their error budget. Turning the problem around, we combine present BBN and cosmic microwave background (CMB) determinations of the cosmic baryon density to predict a “cosmologically preferred” mean life of τn(BBN+CMB)=870±16s, which is consistent with experimental mean life determinations. We show that if future astronomical and cosmological helium observations can reach an uncertainty of σobs(Yp)=0.001 in the 4He mass fraction Yp, this could begin to discriminate between the mean life determinations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS1994

MME-based attitude dynamics identification and estimation for SAMPEX

A method is described for obtaining optimal attitude estimation algorithms for spacecraft lacking attitude rate measurement devices (rate gyros), and then demonstrated using actual flight data from the Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer (SAMPEX) spacecraft. SAMPEX does not have on-board rate sensing, and relies on sun sensors and a three-axis magnetometer for attitude determination. Problems arise since typical attitude estimation is accomplished by filtering measurements of both attitude and attitude rates. Rates are nearly always sampled much more densely than are attitudes. Thus, the absence/loss of rate data normally reduces both the total amount of data available and the sampling density (in time) by a substantial fraction. As a result, the sensitivity of the estimates to model uncertainty and to measurement noise increases. In order to maintain accuracy in the attitude estimates, there is increased need for accurate models of the rotational dynamics. The proposed approach is based on the minimum model error (MME) optimal estimation strategy, which has been successfully applied to estimation of poorly modeled dynamic systems which are relatively sparsely and/or noisily measured. The MME estimates may be used to construct accurate models of the system dynamics (i.e. perform system model identification). Thus, an MME-based approach directly addresses the problems created by absence of attitude rate measurements.

Depena, Juan↗

NASA NTRS2017

Collaborative, Rapid Mapping of Water Extents During Hurricane Harvey Using Optical and Radar Satellite Sensors

On August 25, 2017, Hurricane Harvey made landfall between Port Aransas and Port O'Connor, Texas, bringing with it unprecedented amounts of rainfall and record flooding. In times of natural disasters of this nature, emergency responders require timely and accurate information about the hazard in order to assess and plan for disaster response. Due to the extreme flooding impacts associated with Hurricane Harvey, delineations of water extent were crucial to inform resource deployment. Through the USGS's Hazards Data Distribution System, government and commercial vendors were able to acquire and distribute various satellite imagery to analysts to create value-added products that can be used by these emergency responders. Rapid-response water extent maps were created through a collaborative multi-organization and multi-sensor approach. One team of researchers created Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) water extent maps using modified Copernicus Sentinel data (2017), processed by ESA. This group used backscatter images, pre-processed by the Alaska Satellite Facility's Hybrid Pluggable Processing Pipeline (HyP3), to identify and apply a threshold to identify water in the image. Quality control was conducted by manually examining the image and correcting for potential errors. Another group of researchers and graduate student volunteers derived water masks from high resolution DigitalGlobe and SPOT images. Through a system of standardized image processing, quality control measures, and communication channels the team provided timely and fairly accurate water extent maps to support a larger NASA Disasters Program response. The optical imagery was processed through a combination of various band thresholds and by using Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Modified Normalized Water Index (MNDWI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and cloud masking. Several aspects of the pre-processing and image access were run on internal servers to expedite the provision of images to analysts who could focus on manipulating thresholds and quality control checks for maximum accuracy within the time constraints. The combined results of the radar- and optical-derived value-added products through the coordination of multiple organizations provided timely information for emergency response and recovery efforts.

SERVIR↗

NASA NTRS2012

Correlation Between Analog Noise Measurements and the Expected Bit Error Rate of a Digital Signal Propagating Through Passive Components

A method of determining the bit error rate (BER) of a digital circuit from the measurement of the analog S-parameters of the circuit has been developed. The method is based on the measurement of the noise and the standard deviation of the noise in the S-parameters. Once the standard deviation and the mean of the S-parameters are known, the BER of the circuit can be calculated using the normal Gaussian function.

Warner, Joseph D.↗

DOE OSTI2021

CarcSeq Measurement of Rat Mammary Cancer Driver Mutations and Relation to Spontaneous Mammary Neoplasia

Abstract The ability to deduce carcinogenic potential from subchronic, repeat dose rodent studies would constitute a major advance in chemical safety assessment and drug development. This study investigated an error-corrected NGS method (CarcSeq) for quantifying cancer driver mutations (CDMs) and deriving a metric of clonal expansion predictive of future neoplastic potential. CarcSeq was designed to interrogate subsets of amplicons encompassing hotspot CDMs applicable to a variety of cancers. Previously, normal human breast DNA was analyzed by CarcSeq and metrics based on mammary-specific CDMs were correlated with tissue donor age, a surrogate of breast cancer risk. Here we report development of parallel methodologies for rat. The utility of the rat CarcSeq method for predicting neoplastic potential was investigated by analyzing mammary tissue of 16-week-old untreated rats with known differences in spontaneous mammary neoplasia (Fischer 344, Wistar Han, and Sprague Dawley). Hundreds of mutants with mutant fractions ≥ 10−4 were quantified in each strain, most were recurrent mutations, and 42.5% of the nonsynonymous mutations have human homologs. Mutants in the mammary-specific target of the most tumor-sensitive strain (Sprague Dawley) showed the greatest nonsynonymous/synonymous mutation ratio, indicative of positive selection consistent with clonal expansion. For the mammary-specific target (Hras, Pik3ca, and Tp53 amplicons), median absolute deviation correlated with percentages of rats that develop spontaneous mammary neoplasia at 104 weeks (Pearson r = 1.0000, 1-tailed p = .0010). Therefore, this study produced evidence CarcSeq analysis of spontaneously occurring CDMs can be used to derive an early metric of clonal expansion relatable to long-term neoplastic outcome.

McKim, Karen L.↗

DOE OSTI2020

S -factor and scattering-parameter extractions from ${}^{3}\mathrm{He}+{}^{4}\mathrm{He}{ \rightarrow }^{7}\mathrm{Be}+\gamma $

Previous studies of the reaction ${}^{3}\mathrm{He}+{}^{4}\mathrm{He}\to {}^{7}\mathrm{Be}+\gamma $ have mainly focused on providing the best central value and error bar for the S factor at solar energies. Experimental measurements of this capture reaction at higher energies, the ${}^{3}\mathrm{He}$–${}^{4}\mathrm{He}$ scattering phase shifts, as well as properties of ${}^{7}\mathrm{Be}$ and its excited state, have been used to constrain the theoretical models employed for this purpose. Here we show that much more information than was previously appreciated can be extracted from angle-integrated capture data alone. We use the next-to-leading-order (NLO) amplitude in an effective field theory (EFT) for ${}^{3}\mathrm{He}+{}^{4}\mathrm{He}\to {}^{7}\mathrm{Be}+\gamma $ to perform the extrapolation. At this order the EFT describes the capture process using an s-wave scattering length and effective range, the asymptotic properties of ${}^{7}\mathrm{Be}$ and its excited state, and short-distance contributions to the E1 capture amplitude. We extract the multi-dimensional posterior of all these parameters via a Bayesian analysis that uses capture data below 2 MeV. We find that properties of the ${}^{7}\mathrm{Be}$ ground and excited states are well constrained. The total S factor $S(0)\,={0.577}_{-0.016}^{+0.015}$ keV b, while the branching ratio for excited- to ground-state capture at zero energy, ${Br}(0)={0.406}_{-0.011}^{+0.013}$, both at 68% degree of belief. This S(0) is broadly consistent with other recent evaluations, and agrees with the previously recommended value $S(0)=0.56\pm 0.03\,\,\mathrm{keV}$ b, but has a smaller error bar. We also find significant constraints on ${}^{3}\mathrm{He}$–${}^{4}\mathrm{He}$ scattering parameters, and we obtain constraints on the angular distribution of capture gamma rays, which is important for interpreting experiments. The path forward for this reaction seems to lie with better measurements of the scattering phase shifts and S(E)'s angular dependence away from zero energy, together with better understanding of the asymptotic normalization coefficients of the ${}^{7}$Be bound states' wave functions. Lastly, data on these could further reduce the uncertainty on S(0).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Smart Methane Emission Detection System Development (Final Report)

Working with the Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory, Southwest Research Institute® (SwRI®) developed a system to identify methane leaks reliably, accurately, and autonomously at critical midstream sections of the natural gas distribution network in real-time for the purpose of mitigating methane emissions using Optical Gas Imaging (OGI) cameras. SwRI's Smart Leak Detection – Methane (SLED/M) adds a high degree of automation to the process of methane leak detection to minimize sources of human error, minimize response time to a leak event, and maximize midstream visibility. Furthermore, SwRI has been working towards integrating Quantitative OGI (QOGI) capabilities into this existing technology. By leveraging Deep Learning, SwRI now has the capability to estimate fugitive emission leak rates quickly and reliably, which allows operators to detect emissions, quantify leak rate, prioritize repairs, and validate the repairs in a single instrument. The next generation QOGI technology leverages the same cameras used in Leak Detection and Repair (LDAR) programs, with improvements in safety and speed for traditional quantification-based repairs, ultimately leading to less overhead cost for the operators. The goals for this research were to develop two types of models with the following goals: Run in real-time on the edge (≥ 12 Hz), Classification: Achieve less than 5% false positive detection, Classification: Achieve ≥ 95% methane plume detection rate, Regression: achieve ≤ 10 standard cubic feet per hour (scfh) prediction > 70% of the time. In order to achieve these results, multiple infrared (IR) and other sensors were investigated in tandem with the midwave IR (MWIR) OGI to provide additional information to train the underlying models. Information on atmospheric conditions including humidity, temperature, pressure, and solar radiation was provided by a weather station. Several machine learning and deep learning architectures and methods, including looking at quantized classification networks and regressions networks, were explored. As further data was collected, curated, and labeled, it allowed for more refined regressive networks to be adequately trained, leading to better insight into the true flow rates being observed. An important valuable deliverable of this research effort was the development of an advanced network which underwent multiple iterations capable of giving a continuous output. The current network has a predicted mean average percentage error (MAPE) of 12.3% just outside our target goal of 10.00%, but an accuracy of 97.78% at ±50 scfh, well within the overall goal for the Department of Energy (DOE) program. Upon closer inspection, it was observed that more than 10% of datapoints contributing to the MAPE predictions were the result of low flow rate predictions and are beyond the sensitivity of instrument measurement as a result of normal operational variation and noise.

03 NATURAL GAS↗