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At least 235 records · Page 13

Adaptive Protection and Validated Models to Enable Deployment of High Penetrations of Solar PV (PV-MOD)

The availability and validation of various PV models in commercial tools differ, with some models not yet thoroughly validated for advanced inverter functionalities and reliable performance under weak system conditions. Many existing models do not fully incorporate new inverter control functions, which can affect system stability. The increasing deployment of solar PV and other inverter-based resources (IBRs), including distributed energy resources (DERs), is influencing the reliable operation of protection schemes in distribution systems and microgrids. Emerging adaptive protection schemes (APS) offer new opportunities for protecting these systems during varying configurations and DER operating conditions, though their demonstration and validation remain limited. Adaptive protection schemes face similar challenges, as they are typically designed for specific configurations. There is a growing need for tools and methodologies to streamline the deployment of adaptive protection for safe and reliable DER integration. The project main objective was to develop and validate high-fidelity generic models of solar PV facilities for stability, protection, EMT, and QSTS analyses. This objective was achieved, and these models can now be integrated into commercial software tools, enabling utilities, vendors, and developers to study high-penetration PV systems more confidently. The project also demonstrated advanced applications of these models, including the design and deployment of adaptive protection schemes in high-penetration field applications and microgrids, supporting grid safety and reliability. Several milestones were reached by the end of the project. A sophisticated inverter test plan was developed, and inverters representative of the North American marketplace were selected. EPRI and NREL tested various inverters, conforming to IEEE standards. Improvements were made to existing generic models of IBR units, IBR plants, and aggregated feeders for various analyses. The first generic electromagnetic transient (EMT) model for a solar PV plant was developed, conforming to IEEE Std 2800™-2022 and validated against laboratory measurements of a 2.2 MVA large-scale battery energy storage system (BESS) inverter. That model was then used to produce reference responses illustrating examples of validated and verified IBR plant models that pass or fail tests for technical minimum capability and performance as specified in the IEEE standard. The developed, tested, and validated generic models can be used for transmission planning, stability assessments, expansion planning, and evaluating potential future IBR interconnection requirements. They can also support interconnection screens and conformity assessments of IBR plants, including solar PV. The project significantly contributed to the ongoing standardization and model-based representation and verification of IBR responses. The project further addressed challenges of common distribution protection schemes with increasing deployment of DER by developing, validating, and demonstrating adaptive protection schemes (APS) that can improve the reliable and safe integration of DER into distribution systems. New APS were designed using improved DER models for three common distribution systems: a radial feeder, a meshed network, and a microgrid. Modeling and hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing of the APS were conducted, successfully showing their effectiveness and selectivity. Proof-of-concept field demonstration was achieved for two APS, i.e., one on a radial feeder and another one in a microgrid. Field demonstration could not be achieved for the APS on a meshed network, primarily due apprehension of one utility partner and also due to limited access to the protective algorithms in the network protectors. Guidelines developed from the lessons learned in the project lay out the general process followed in the design, installation, and commissioning of APS for various distribution systems. Distribution utility partners’ apprehension about field demonstration of the new APS were addressed—with varying success—by taking a stepped risk-management approach of modeling of a wide range of sensitivities first, performing in-depth proof-of-concept testing in the laboratory including HIL next, and finally deliberately implementing and commissioning the actual protection equipment and algorithms into parts of—or in parallel operation to—the three real distribution systems. Future work should include pilot projects that further show the acceptable performance of the developed APS before these schemes be rolled out more widely. Inclusion of both utility and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in future projects could increase chances of successful field demonstration. Despite challenges in achieving the field demonstration goal of the project for all three APS, the research significantly contributed to the innovation of adaptive protection solutions for scalable and reliable DER integration into distribution systems. This project significantly enhances the understanding of the impact of using appropriate inverter models on distribution and transmission (T&D) systems. By addressing the limitations of existing generic models, the project introduces high-fidelity models for stability, protection, electromagnetic transient (EMT), and quasi-static time series (QSTS) analyses. These models, integrated into commercial software tools, enable utilities, vendors, and developers to confidently study high-penetration PV systems. The project also demonstrates advanced applications, including adaptive protection schemes (APS) for distribution systems and microgrids, ensuring grid safety and reliability. The technical effectiveness and economic feasibility of the methods are evident through the development and validation of sophisticated inverter test plans and the selection of representative inverters. Testing by EPRI and NREL on retail, commercial, and utility-scale inverters, conforming to IEEE standards, underscores the robustness of the models. Improvements to existing generic models for various analyses further enhance their validity and applicability. The project also identifies gaps in common distribution protection schemes and designed new APS using improved DER models, demonstrating their effectiveness through modeling and hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing. The project’s benefits to the public are manifold. By advancing the standardization and model-based representation of IBR response, it supports transmission planning, stability assessments, and future IBR interconnection requirements. The generic models can facilitate better communication between transmission planners and developers, supporting expected IBR plant capability and performance. Additionally, the development of APS for radial feeders, meshed networks, and microgrids supports the integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into distribution systems, enhancing grid reliability and safety. The project’s emphasis on thorough testing and simplicity in design ensures practical and scalable solutions for DER integration.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Thermal Reservoir Networks for Modularly Expandable Thermal Microgrids

The Department of Defense (DoD) faces the substantial challenge of cost-effectively retrofitting one to two installations per month, each comprising approximately 1,000 buildings, to improve resilience, reduce energy consumption, and enhance energy supply security. Achieving these objectives requires optimal system selection and effective risk mitigation during system integration. To address this need, we introduce Platform-Based Design (PBD), a structured, hierarchical methodology adapted from other industrial sectors to the domain of energy system retrofits. We demonstrate the effectiveness of PBD through a techno-economic feasibility study comparing geothermal-coupled thermal energy networks (TENs) with conventional energy systems for heating, cooling, and powering 17 buildings at Joint Base Andrews (JBA) in Maryland. Our analysis illustrates that the PBD approach enables rigorous, data-driven, sequential decision making, resulting in a family of Pareto-optimal systems, among which the TEN emerged as the most promising solution. The selected TEN design integrates geothermal borefields, heat recovery heat pumps, photovoltaic (PV) arrays, and battery storage. Compared to the baseline system – gas heating combined with air-source chillers – the proposed TEN reduces annual imported energy by 74% and peak electricity demand by 45%, achieves a levelized cost of energy of $\$0.210$/kWh, and substantially enhances resilience. Life-cycle costs increase by approximately 6%, and initial investment costs are about 2.5 times higher than the baseline. However, if central plant infrastructure, district loops, and utility-scale PV and battery systems are privately funded and operated, the initial investment would fall below the baseline system cost. Critical to achieving these significant performance improvements were detailed nonlinear dynamic simulations coupling geothermal heat transfer, energy system operation, and realistic feedback control logic. These simulations identified essential design modifications and control strategy refinements that substantially reduced energy use, peak demand, and compressor shortcycling, thereby improving durability and reliability—issues that would have been significantly more expensive to resolve during operation. Additionally, the verification step highlighted sensitivities to key design parameters that could reduce initial investment by approximately $\$2$ million and reduce annual life-cycle costs more than $\$300,000$. We recommend adopting the PBD methodology for future feasibility studies and TEN pilot projects to gain valuable operational experience. Furthermore, we recommend that DoD invest in transferring and scaling the PBD methodology to other installations. This entails developing standardized computational frameworks and component libraries as well as training industry in conducting PBD. Such investments would enable rapid, robust, reliable, and cost-effective retrofits, supporting DoD’s ambitious energy system modernization goals.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Deep Learning for Fish Identification from Sonar Data: CRADA 481 [Abstract only]

To help solve the challenges of hydropower energy production related to the potential for eel injury and mortality from passage through hydropower turbines, we will develop a deep learning method for identifying migrating eels from imaging sonar. This project continues with a prior project conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) in FY2018-2019. The proposed method employs Convolution Neural Network (CNN), a powerful deep learning method for image classification, to distinguish between images of eels and non-eel moving objects. We propose to collect more laboratory data and add more existing field data to train a powerful deep learning model. In addition to eels and sticks as classified in previous studies, we will add images containing several non-eel fish species and macrophyte mats to the training data. A multi-class classification model will be developed to distinguish these objects. Object detection algorithm will be explored and developed to locate and identify multiple objects in each sonar frame. Motion analysis will be performed to track the movement of objects in sonar video clips. We will also improve the data conversion algorithm so that it can read in both DIDSON and ARIS (both are imaging sonars developed by Sound Metrics Corp) data files and convert them to images with comparably high resolution, regardless of the varying detection ranges in different environments. The developed algorithms will be packaged as a software with a graphic user interface. The software will be evaluated by external collaborators in the field. The developed framework can be generalized for automatic monitoring of fish passage and migration using other imaging sonars like ARIS and will benefit the design and operation of ecologically friendly hydroelectric projects. The developed wavelet and CNN model configuration parameters can potentially be transferred to lamprey detection in similar riverine environments.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Resilient Information Architecture Platform for Smart Grid (RIAPS)

A number of emerging trends will substantially alter the operation and control of the electric grid over the next several decades. These trends include ensuring resiliency under severe weather events, increasing integration of renewable electricity generation, supporting changing electricity demand patterns, and the improving cost effectiveness of distributed energy resources. To address these challenges, the future “Smart Grid” management will need to transition from centralized to coordinated distributed control paradigm. Reliable operation of the Smart Grid depends on distributed intelligence realized through software applications that run on distributed computing devices attached to the power system to collect data and collaboratively manage resources. However, much of the existing software for Smart Grid-enabled devices is either proprietary or developed with custom solutions, which limits interoperability among the heterogeneous devices and hinders the ability to manage system-level reliability, security, and resiliency requirements. Additionally, this approach makes Smart Grid applications hard to maintain, evolve, verify, and replace; resulting in high development and deployment costs. Further development of the Smart Grid requires a reusable software base-layer to move from hard-coded functionality to a plug-and-play architecture capable of managing system-level objectives and constraints in addition to providing consistent common services across heterogeneous devices and applications. Vanderbilt University, in collaboration with North Carolina State University and Washington State University has developed a foundation ‘software platform’ for developing and deploying robust, reliable, effective and secure software applications for the Smart Grid. The Resilient Information Architecture Platform for the Smart Grid (RIAPS) provides core services for building effective and powerful smart grid applications. It offers unique services for real-time data dissemination, fault tolerance, and coordination across apps distributed over the network.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Inter-Domain Fusion for Enhanced Intrusion Detection in Power Systems: An Evidence Theoretic and Meta-Heuristic Approach

False alerts due to misconfigured or compromised intrusion detection systems (IDS) in industrial control system (ICS) networks can lead to severe economic and operational damage. However, research using deep learning to reduce false alerts often requires the physical and cyber sensor data to be trustworthy. Implicit trust is a major problem for artificial intelligence or machine learning (AI/ML) in cyber-physical system (CPS) security, because when these solutions are most urgently needed is also when they are most at risk (e.g., during an attack). To address this, the Inter-Domain Evidence theoretic Approach for Inference (IDEA-I) is proposed that reframes the detection problem as how to make good decisions given uncertainty. Specifically, an evidence theoretic approach leveraging Dempster–Shafer (DS) combination rules and their variants is proposed for reducing false alerts. A multi-hypothesis mass function model is designed that leverages probability scores obtained from supervised-learning classifiers. Using this model, a location-cum-domain-based fusion framework is proposed to evaluate the detector’s performance using disjunctive, conjunctive, and cautious conjunctive rules. The approach is demonstrated in a cyber-physical power system testbed, and the classifiers are trained with datasets from Man-In-The-Middle attack emulation in a large-scale synthetic electric grid. For evaluating the performance, we consider plausibility, belief, pignistic, and general Bayesian theorem-based metrics as decision functions. To improve the performance, a multi-objective-based genetic algorithm is proposed for feature selection considering the decision metrics as the fitness function. Finally, we present a software application to evaluate the DS fusion approaches with different parameters and architectures.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Theoretical Open Architecture Framework and Technology Stack for Digital Twins in Energy Sector Applications

Digital twin is often viewed as a technology that can assist engineers and researchers make data-driven system and network-level decisions. Across the scientific literature, digital twins have been consistently theorized as a strong solution to facilitate proactive discovery of system failures, system and network efficiency improvement, system and network operation optimization, among others. With their strong affinity to the industrial metaverse concept, digital twins have the potential to offer high-value propositions that are unique to the energy sector stakeholders to realize the true potential of physical and digital convergence and pertinent sustainability goals. Although the technology has been known for a long time in theory, its practical real-world applications have been so far limited, nevertheless with tremendous growth projections. In the energy sector, there have been theoretical and lab-level experimental analysis of digital twins but few of those experiments resulted in real-world deployments. There may be many contributing factors to any friction associated with real-world scalable deployment in the energy sector such as cost, regulatory, and compliance requirements, and measurable and comparable methods to evaluate performance and return on investment. Those factors can be potentially addressed if the digital twin applications are built on the foundations of a scalable and interoperable framework that can drive a digital twin application across the project lifecycle: from ideation to theoretical deep dive to proof of concept to large-scale experiment to real-world deployment at scale. This paper is an attempt to define a digital twin open architecture framework that comprises a digital twin technology stack (D-Arc) coupled with information flow, sequence, and object diagrams. Those artifacts can be used by energy sector engineers and researchers to use any digital twin platform to drive research and engineering. This paper also provides critical details related to cybersecurity aspects, data management processes, and relevant energy sector use cases.

Gourisetti, Sri, Nikhil Gupta (ORCID:0000000188778↗

Application of Point Precipitation Frequency Estimates to Watersheds

This report documents work sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) as part of the RES project, “Application of Point Precipitation Frequency Estimates to Watersheds.” This project was implemented as part of the Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research Program. The objective of the PFHA Research Program is to develop tools and guidance on the use of PFHA methods to risk-inform NRC’s licensing of new facilities as well as licensing and oversight of currently operating facilities as they relate to flooding hazards. Many nuclear power plants (NPPs) are located on or near rivers so riverine flooding hazards need to be considered in their design and operation. Probabilistic riverine flood models are important tools for realistic assessment of flooding risks. However, these models require areal estimates of the depth, duration, and frequency of rainfall distributed over the watershed, which are not often available. Point precipitation frequency estimates are more widely available. For example, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has published NOAA Atlas 14, which provides point precipitation frequency estimates for 5-minute through 60-day durations at average recurrence intervals of 1-year through 1,000-year. The research documented in this report addresses areal reduction factors (ARFs), which can be used to convert the widely available point precipitation frequency estimates, to estimates of areal precipitation frequency over a watershed. The most widely used ARF source is Technical Paper 29 (TP-29) published by the then U.S. Weather Bureau in 1958. However, both the methods and the underlying precipitation data used to produce TP-29 are seriously out of date. For example, due to the small gauge network available at the time of TP-29’s compilation, ARF estimates developed are only for watersheds smaller than about 400 square miles. Due to the relatively short record lengths of precipitation data available, frequency considerations could not be accurately determined. Other factors such as regional climate and seasonality were not addressed. Several newer methods have been published since TP-29 was developed and both the type and quantity of precipitation data have increased significantly, along with computational resources and analytical tools such as geographic information systems. This report reviewed and assessed the available precipitation products and methods for conducting ARF analysis. The work applied up-to-date precipitation data products and analysis methods with a novel watershed-based approach to investigate how ARF estimates vary across different methods, data sources, geographical locations, return periods, and seasons. The overall findings reported here regarding basic ARF trends are in line with other recent studies showing that ARFs decrease with increasing area, increase with increasing duration, and decrease with increasing return period. This study found significant differences among the available ARF methods. This work also found a strong geographical variability across different US hydrologic regions, suggesting that the ARF are specific to regional climate patterns and geographical characteristics and should not be applied arbitrarily to other locations. The results also reveal the importance of data record length, especially for high return level ARFs. The work reported in NUREG/CR-7271 will assist NRC staff in assessing different classes of ARF methods in conjunction with available rainfall data sets. It will also support the development of guidance for application of point precipitation data in PFHAs. It should be noted that the ARF values presented in this report for any location or region were developed for the purposes of comparing methods and investigating the factors that influence ARFs. They should not be considered official and should not be used in leu of a site-specific analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Report on Year-4 of Water NSTF Matrix Testing: Facility Maintenance and Accident Testing

Under support from the Department of Energy (DOE) and the Office of Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART), a large-scale test facility has been constructed at Argonne National Laboratory to generate NQA-1 qualified validation data for passive decay heat removal systems in advanced reactors. The Natural convection Shutdown heat removal Test Facility (NSTF) reflects key features of a ½ scale, water-based, Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) and is intended to study the behavior, bound performance, and ultimately guide design decisions for passive decay heat removal systems for advanced reactors. In addition to the experimental activities detailed in this report, a supportive computational modeling effort is on-going which has been demonstrated to significantly strengthen the experimental program while also improving accuracy of the computer models. Together these create a mutually beneficial relationship integral to meeting the overall program objective of examining the heat removal performance of the RCCS concept. This report serves as a summary of maintenance and experimental activities during the program’s fourth year of water-based operation. A planned six-month maintenance period began in August 2021, during which major inspections, repairs, cleaning, and installation of new instrumentation and data acquisition hardware were conducted. Most significantly, two heaters that faulted during Year-3 were repaired, allowing the facility to resume use of the full heated section area and full range of available electric power. The remainder of the year consisted of eight months of test operations, during which the facility logged 211 hours of active heating across one bake-out (following the maintenance period) and seven matrix tests; five classifieds as Accepted per NQA-1, one as Trending, and one as Failed. Testing began by performing two repeat cases to confirm expected facility response and behavior during both single- and two-phase flow conditions, ensuring no changes were introduced during the maintenance period that might have altered the thermal-hydraulic characteristics of the facility. In continuation of the power parametric series initiated in previous years, a high-power test case was then performed examining heat removal performance at a decay heat load equivalent to 2.4 MWt, full-scale, a level exceeding maximum design targets. Additional testing then introduced various blockage scenarios along the network piping, examining the effects of partial and complete blockages of the flow paths on the system behavior and heat removal performance. A study of static boiling tests directed at understanding the geysering two-phase instability was also conducted. The loop was filled only to the bottom of the tank outlet, creating an open loop configuration that prevents any natural circulation flow from occurring, and the heaters were powered on until the facility reached saturation conditions. Following, a series of quasi-steady-state conditions were introduced by adjusting the inventory level in the adiabatic chimney piping at decreasingly lower elevations above the heated region. A strong correlation of geysering characteristics and loop level was observed, with flow and temperature excursions decreasing in intensity, but increasing in frequency, as the fill were reduced to lower elevations along the chimney piping. Once the level fell very low in the chimney, at points near the top of the heated section, the system reached a stable state of continuous boiling without any occurrence of geysering eruptions. A final significant testing accomplishment this year was successful completion of an “accident scenario” test, whose operating conditions were based on a prototypic decay heat curve provided by Framatome and scaled for the NSTF. This test began by establishing steady-state, single-phase “normal operation” conditions, before simulating an accident trip where the availability of active cooling systems was lost. Loop temperatures gradually increased until reaching saturation and subsequent two-phase boiling flow. Over the course of an extended operational period along the defined decay heat curve, steam boil-off caused gradual but continued depletion of liquid inventory until reaching a critically low level causing flow stagnation and cessation of natural circulation heat removal. At this point, after nearly 72 hours of continuous operation, a cold refill was performed to replenish the system inventory and allow the facility to re-establish closed loop natural circulation flow and return to a safe operational state.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Facility Cybersecurity Framework Best Practices

Federal facilities are increasingly adopting automation and connecting to the Internet creating an energy-internet-of-things environment that converges operational technology (OT) and information technology (IT). Today's buildings increasingly weave together networked sensors and cyber and physical systems that enable data to be collected, aggregated, exchanged, stored and monetized in new ways. Building technological advances have created new energy technology, services, markets and value creation opportunities (e.g. transactive energy, two-way grid communications, machine learning, and increased use of renewable and distributed energy resources). But as larger data sets are being exchanged at faster speeds between an increasing number of OT systems, it becomes more difficult to protect the security of the data lifecycle and the physical equipment it interacts with. These challenges are especially difficult to overcome because the economic and environmental gain (interoperability, big data, social networks and ubiquitous information sharing) are driving these prominent trends in the digital age. Often cybersecurity is an afterthought. The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) funded the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to develop various cybersecurity tools, trainings, and reports to aid federal facility managers – and other building owners and operators – in better applying frameworks and lessons learned from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Cybersecurity Framework (CSF), risk management framework (RMF), DOE’s cybersecurity capability maturity model (C2M2), and a wide variety of industry best practices and guidance documents (i.e., NIST 800 series, Department of Defense United Facilities Criteria). This set of tools, collectively known as the FEMP Facility-Related Control System Cyber Toolkit (FRCS Cyber Toolkit)2, is focused on cybersecurity concerns from facility-related control systems and other operational technology (OT), such as industrial control systems (ICS). The FRCS Cyber Toolkit can be applied across six of the sixteen critical infrastructure sectors designated by the Department of Homeland Security, including government facilities, healthcare and public health, commercial facilities (e.g., public assembly, offices, lodging), financial services (e.g., banking and insurance), emergency services (e.g., fire and police stations), and information technology. With increasingly converged IT and OT systems, it is crucial to address OT cybersecurity considerations and assess how the seam of these two systems could impact the overall cybersecurity posture of a facility. The objective of this report is to provide an overview of the best possible method to use FRCS Cyber Toolkit (section 2.0) and distilled cybersecurity best practices for the federal facilities to address growing non-linear cyber threats (section 3.0). Recommendations in this document are aggregated from several NIST and other documents (see Appendix A for additional details).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Pump-and-Treat Impacts on Aquifer Conditions and the Development of System-Wide Performance Strategies - 20377

The pump-and-treat (P and T) system on the Hanford Site's Central Plateau currently treats multiple contaminants within the 200-ZP-1 operable unit, including nitrate through its biological treatment processes. Although it was initially designed to support the 200-ZP-1 Remedial Action Objectives, the P and T system has evolved in use to address contaminants from other regions of the aquifer as well. The P and T influents are biogeochemically distinct, treating groundwaters with elevated concentrations of cyanide, uranium, technetium-99, and nitrate. Given the varying geochemical signatures from current and potential future sources, operational conditions, and amendments considered for treatment processes, there is a need to identify the impacts that the P and T effluent has on the aquifer, and how the aquifer affects P and T performance. To this end, laboratory efforts have focused on characterizing P and T effluent and its biogeochemical effects on the sediments through a series repacked column experiments. The P and T effluent is rich in particulate matter. A systematic inspection of this particulate matter in the P and T effluent showed significant levels of manganese/iron oxides, calcite crystals, relatively large organic matter molecules, and biomass. Therefore, the column experiments were designed and conducted for four different treatment systems: artificial groundwater, filtered P and T effluent, non-filtered P and T effluent, and chlorinated P and T effluent. Different levels of microbiologically- and geochemically-induced changes in the columns occurred and modified the flow systems. For example, physical filtration occurred in the sediments where the particulate material had accumulated in the top portion of the column. Reactive transport modeling of the laboratory experiments is being carried out so that the reaction network can be extrapolated to the field scale. These simulations will provide predictive evaluations of system performance based on P and T operational changes and aquifer mass loading and capacity estimates. This information can be used to address combined subsurface and operational challenges, such as the need for frequent well redevelopment to maintain injection capacity. This information also provides the technical basis for decisions related to the P and T system operations that support remedy optimization efforts and short- and long-term remedy decisions related to multiple operable units on the Hanford Site Central Plateau. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Power System Waveform Datasets for Machine Learning

The desire for increased visibility across the electricity grid will necessarily increase the deployment of sensing and measurement devices and associated data management needs to unprecedented levels. For the existing sensing and measurement infrastructure, there remains a great amount of “value” yet to be extracted through advanced data management and analytics. Availability of more data will not, by itself, lead to changes in grid visibility, security, and resiliency. To create the predictive and prescriptive environment required to enable new markets and transactions for customer revenue and a reliable grid, the data must be collected, organized, evaluated, and analyzed using sophisticated algorithms to provide actionable information allowing operators and customers to reliably manage an increasingly complex grid. Progress in artificial intelligence (AI) has been largely driven by large, publicly available datasets that can be used to train AI algorithms such as MNIST, a database of handwritten images of digits, and ImageNet, an image database of everyday objects. These types of publicly available databases of real-world training datasets have been largely credited for advancement of image processing, computer vision, and deep learning algorithms that these use cases deploy. However, in the power systems industry to date, there are few databases with proper event labeling, and data access to a publicly available collection of power system event waveforms that will allow users to interact with grid signature data. Publicly available datasets of power system event waveforms, such as the DOE/EPRI dataset, often lack critical metadata or contain limited examples of each event type, and data formats vary widely across these datasets.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Proactive Intrusion Detection and Mitigation System

SAND2023-05661O The proactive intrusion detection and mitigation system (PIDMS) provides grid-edge situational awareness for cybersecurity defense by capturing real-time distributed energy resource (DER) network traffic and performance data with a novel approach that improves the detection and prevention of cyber-physical attacks. The PIDMS addresses the grid-edge security gap with real-time analysis of both network traffic and photovoltaic performance data to deliver a novel, cyber-physical intrusion detection system (IDS) approach that increases the accuracy and effectiveness of detection and mitigation. This hybrid IDS analysis enables dual monitoring that increases the workload of the adversary; both cyber and physical data would have to be simultaneously spoofed to evade detection. Furthermore, monitoring and analyzing cyber data are insufficient in some cases. For example, in an insider threat aimed at disrupting inverter grid-support functions where proper credentials and authentication are achieved, only the altered PV performance would indicate abnormal behavior. All in all, the PIDMS provides novel capabilities for: • Distributed, real-time cyber-physical detection and mitigation analysis • Cybersecurity defense for grid-edge systems • Analysis framework that can provide situational awareness across the transmission, distribution, and DER systems The PIDMS sensor is designed to collect cyber-physical data, process the data using machine-learning algorithms, detect abnormal events, and deploy mitigations. With these goals, the main functional PIDMS objectives are: • Capability to collect cyber-physical data • Onboard storage of cyber-physical data • Peer-to-peer communication • Computationally efficient machine-learning algorithms • Online cyber-physical data analysis • Alerting/visualization capabilities • Mitigation deployment capability with bump-in-the-wire (BITW) implementation Each of these functional objectives enable PIDMS to perform effective cyber-physical intrusion detection and mitigation. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Jones, Christian↗

Extreme-scale EV charging infrastructure planning for last-mile delivery using high-performance parallel computing

Here, this paper addresses stochastic charger location and allocation problems under queue congestion for last-mile delivery using electric vehicles (EVs). The objective is to decide where to open charging stations and how many chargers of each type to install, subject to budgetary and waiting-time constraints. We formulate the problem as a mixed-integer non-linear program, where each station-charger pair is modeled as a multiserver queue with stochastic arrivals and service times to capture the notion of waiting in fleet operations. The model is extremely large, with billions of variables and constraints for a typical metropolitan area; even loading the model in solver memory is difficult, let alone solving it. To address this challenge, we develop a Lagrangian-based dual decomposition framework that decomposes the problem by station and leverages parallelization on high-performance computing systems, where the subproblems are solved by using a cutting plane method and their solutions are collected at the master level. We also develop a three-step rounding heuristic to transform the fractional subproblem solutions into feasible integral solutions. Computational experiments on data from the Chicago metropolitan area with hundreds of thousands of households and thousands of candidate stations show that our approach produces high-quality solutions in cases where existing exact methods cannot even load the model in memory. We also analyze various policy scenarios, demonstrating that combining existing depots with newly built stations under multiagency collaboration substantially reduces costs and congestion. These findings offer a scalable and efficient framework for developing sustainable large-scale EV charging networks.

Capacity allocation↗

Graph-Learning-Assisted State and Event Tracking for Solar-Penetrated Power Grids with Heterogeneous Data Sources

Unlike transmission systems, distribution systems do not typically contain sufficient metering to enable real-time state estimation. The lack of sufficient real-time measurements prohibits accurate and timely monitoring of the state of distribution systems. As a result, control and optimal operation of distribution systems, especially those containing large numbers of renewable generation units are not possible without proper data and information about the current state of the system. The main motivation of this project is to address this shortcoming by developing an approach which provides “predicted” real-time measurements so that they can be used to execute a distribution system state estimator. Thus, the objective of the project is to make the distribution systems fully observable, such that the hosting capacity for solar generation can be accurately estimated, and unnecessary solar curtailments can be avoided. In order to accomplish this goal, the project investigated the use of a grid-model-informed machine learning (ML) tool which integrates heterogeneous data streams obtained from AMI meters, SCADA as well as PMU measurements and created synchronous measurement snapshots for the state estimator (SE); and developed a hybrid robust SE which provides not only accurate state estimates but also real-time feedback for the ML model refinement.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

2024 Results for Avian Monitoring at the Technical Area 36 Minie Site, Technical Area 39 Point 6, Technical Area 16 Burn Ground, and DARHT at Los Alamos National Laboratory

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) biological subject matter experts in the Environmental Protection and Compliance Division initiated a multi-year program in 2013 to monitor avifauna (birds) at two open detonation sites and one open burn site on LANL property. Additional monitoring began in 2017 at a third firing site, the Dual-Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test (DARHT) Facility. In this annual report, we compare monitoring results from these efforts among years to identify and evaluate firing and open burn site impacts on the local bird community. The objectives of this study are • to determine whether LANL operations impact bird abundance, species richness, or diversity; • to examine occupancy and nest success of secondary-cavity nesting birds that use nest boxes; and • to examine chemical concentrations (such as radionuclides, inorganic elements, and/or organic compounds) in nonviable eggs and deceased nestlings that are collected opportunistically with the upper-level bounds of background concentrations, when available. During May through July 2024, LANL biologists completed multiple avian point count surveys at each of the following treatment sites: • Technical Area (TA) 36 Minie Site, • TA-39 Point 6, • TA-16 Burn Ground, and • DARHT. We recorded a total of 1,088 birds that represented 65 species at the four treatment sites and compared these results with data from their associated control sites. In 2024, abundance and species richness at treatment and control sites continued to trend similarly from year to year, with minor random deviations expected from bird communities. Species richness at firing sites differed little from the previous year’s values. Two new bird species were observed at the firing sites—cedar waxwing (Bombycilla cedrorum) and pinyon jay (Gymnorhinus cyanocephalus). Shannon diversity values at TA-36 Minie Site, TA-39, and DARHT were statistically higher than one or more of their associated controls. Annual species diversity at treatment sites was high in 2024 across all firing sites relative to similar habitat control sites. We also monitored avian nest boxes to compare occupancy and nest success data from nest boxes at treatment sites with the overall avian nest box monitoring network and against a subset of relevant control sites. Nest box success has decreased at both treatment and control sites since monitoring began, suggesting that overlapping climatic factors are responsible for patterns of declining nest success. In 2024, nonviable avian eggs and one nestling were opportunistically collected at Bandelier National Monument, TA-16 Burn Ground, TA-36 Minie, TA-39 Point 6, and DARHT. All egg samples and the one nestling sample were evaluated for per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, which were detected from all locations, including the control site at Bandelier National Monument. Overall results from 2024 continue to suggest that operations at the four treatment sites are not negatively impacting bird populations. This long-term project will continue to monitor for any changes over time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

LEED: A Lightwave Energy-Efficient Datacenter

The Lightwave Energy-Efficient Datacenter (LEED) program is a disruptive “green-field” approach that provides a quantum leap in the energy efficiency of datacenters. LEED’s fundamental value proposition is that a novel and re-architected optical network—RotorNet— can deliver “more bandwidth per buck” as well as unique system-level attributes that significantly improve overall datacenter energy efficiency and performance. LEED has developed three system-level testbeds. The first testbed uses calibrated hardware and software power measurements to determine server energy efficiency as a function of network bandwidth and workload. These measurements have shown that increasing network communications bandwidth dramatically increases server energy efficiency providing a realistic path to the overall ENLITENED program goal of doubling the number of transactions per joule. The second testbed demonstrates key hardware: a prototype low-loss, high-port count optical “selector switch”. This switch was fabricated, racked, and tested. Measured switch characteristics include loss, bandwidth, crosstalk, switch time, system-level switch time (including the transceivers), and bit error rate. The third testbed demonstrates a fully working and manufactured pinwheel design which dramatically lowers the cost of design, while delivering high switch radix and low reconfiguration times. The LEED project has tied these three novel photonic switch prototypes together with production servers and software through the development of a novel FPGA-based NIC platform called Corundum. Corundum ensures that the packet-switched protocols supported by commodity operating systems and devices can interface with the Rotor switch design. The LEED group has used this combined hardware and software prototype to characterize applications running at a commercially relevant scale. The project has used a combination of enhanced optical modulation amplitude (OMA) modulators, broadband multiplexers and demultiplexers, avalanche photodiodes, and a novel burst-mode receivers to enable the insertion of LEED-developed optical switches without the need for expensive optical amplification. Our modeling has shown that measured LEED-developed device characteristics can achieve link characteristics of 2 pJ/bit including both transceivers and the Rotor switch. In summary, the LEED program has demonstrated a credible and practical path, through novel hardware and software, to realize the program objectives of ENLITENED. The net result will ensure that the United States maintains its strength in the crucial sector of Information Technology, which is vital to both our economic security and our national security.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Modifications to Solar Titan-130 Combustion Systems for Efficient, High Turndown Operation

The project team of Southwest Research Institute® (SwRI®), Solar Turbines Incorporated (Solar), the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), the University of California, Irvine (UCI), and the Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech) investigated methods to allow higher efficiency part-load operation of a Solar Titan 130 gas turbine. The objective was to develop a low-emission combustion system capable of sustaining combustion and avoiding lean blowout during high turndown operation, which would allow the gas turbine to operate as efficiently as possible at part load. Currently, electric utility markets are beginning to experience substantial increases in renewable energy generation. Some of these renewable energy sources have highly variable output in an uncontrolled manner. In order to maintain grid stability, there is a need for power plants to ramp up power to the grid rapidly to make up for drops in renewable generation. This is often termed spinning reserve, but the size of this reserve may need to increase as renewable penetration into the electric utility market increases. Small combined heat and power (CHP) power plants provide a promising option for meeting this spinning reserve requirement. In order to operate in spinning reserve while still meeting the heat requirements for the CHP, the gas turbine needs to operate efficiently at very low loads. Efficient, high turndown operations in this engine are limited by the lean flammability limit of the premixed combustion system. This project sought enhance the lean operability range of the Titan 130 combustor. First, the project team participated in a brainstorming activity and ultimately selected two concepts to explore: fuel augmentation with hydrogen (H2) to improve the stability at lean operating conditions and modifications to the fuel nozzle to improve the emissions performance at lean operating conditions. Analytical and laboratory investigations were accomplished by UCI to investigate the efficacy of H2 addition at improving lean blow out (LBO) limits and the resulting emissions. These investigations used a variety of chemical reactor network (CRN) and CFD models, validated against laboratory data, to model the impact of H 2 and inform the experimental efforts accomplished by SwRI and Solar. Ultimately, both the CRN and CFD models yielded generally good agreement with the experimental data below a particular temperature threshold. Atmospheric tests of a full-scale T130 annular combustor were performed at SwRI facilities in San Antonio, Texas, to investigate the use of H 2 addition. For these tests, the T130 combustion system remained largely unchanged; minor modifications were performed to the fuel ducting to allow for the safe use of H 2 . The test ultimately demonstrated that the addition of H 2 to the fuel mixture significantly increased the AFR ratio at which the combustor could operate. This improvement to the LBO limit should allow for less use of compressor bleed and less throttling needed by the inlet guide vanes (IGV). This in turn could result in more efficient operation of the gas turbine at lower load points. The second modification explored in this work was a direct modification to the T130 injector. The project team hypothesized that modifications to the pilot of the T130 injector could provide lower emissions at high turn-down operations. These modifications were manufactured and explored by the team at Solar. High pressure rig tests, originally slated to occur at SwRI, were ultimately accomplished by Solar to maintain overall project budget and mitigate cost growth attributable to supply chain issues and inflation. The pressurized rig tests ultimately showed that the SwRI Project No. 18.24153 - DE-EE0008415 Page 2 Final Technical Report January 24, 2024 modifications did not significantly alter the performance of the combustion system at the high turn-down conditions; both the modified injectors and the baseline configuration exhibited elevated emissions comparted to the full-load operating condition. A final set of studies performed by EPRI investigated the benefit-cost of flexible CHP as well as a grid interconnection study for the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) grid. These studies considered: traditional CHP with no spinning reserve available for on-demand grid support, 50% flexible CHP where 50% of the machine’s capacity is consumed by on-site baseload operations while providing an additional 50% capacity for on-demand grid support, and 70% flexible CHP where 70% of capacity is consumed on-site by baseload operations and 30% is available for on-demand grid support. In all cases, the analyses showed a benefit-to-cost ratio greater than unity implying a positive net present value for all configurations. However, the traditional CHP showed the most economic benefit. These results are sensitive to several factors, many of which are not fully known and may vary over time. Thus site owners must be convinced that taking up the increased costs and risks from flexible CHP would be worth implementing. As the grid in California and across the country transition to incorporate larger renewable energy generation, flexible CHP can provide much needed operating reserves and dispatchability. Alternative fuel options, such as hydrogen blending and biofuels, may also lower carbon intensities of CHP. Flexible CHP should be examined in the evolving market to understand innovative business models, changes market rules and services, and new technologies.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Neural message-passing for objective-based uncertainty quantification and optimal experimental design

Various real-world scientific applications involve the mathematical modeling of complex uncertain systems with numerous unknown parameters. Accurate parameter estimation is often practically infeasible in such systems, as the available training data may be insufficient and the cost of acquiring additional data may be high. In such cases, based on a Bayesian paradigm, we can design robust operators retaining the best overall performance across all possible models and design optimal experiments that can effectively reduce uncertainty to enhance the performance of such operators maximally. While objective-based uncertainty quantification (objective-UQ) based on MOCU (mean objective cost of uncertainty) provides an effective means for quantifying uncertainty in complex systems, the high computational cost of estimating MOCU has been a challenge in applying it to real-world scientific/engineering problems. In this work, we propose a novel scheme to reduce the computational cost for objective-UQ via MOCU based on a data-driven approach. We adopt a neural message-passing model for surrogate modeling, incorporating a novel axiomatic constraint loss that penalizes an increase in the estimated system uncertainty. As an illustrative example, we consider the optimal experimental design (OED) problem for uncertain Kuramoto models, where the goal is to predict the experiments that can most effectively enhance robust synchronization performance through uncertainty reduction. We show that our proposed approach can accelerate MOCU-based OED by four to five orders of magnitude, without any visible performance loss compared to the state-of-the-art. The proposed approach applies to general OED tasks, beyond the Kuramoto model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗