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At least 235 records · Page 13

Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops.

climate policy↗

Multiple source associated particle imaging for simultaneous capture of multiple projections

Disclosed herein are representative embodiments of methods, apparatus, and systems for performing neutron radiography. For example, in one exemplary method, an object is interrogated with a plurality of neutrons. The plurality of neutrons includes a first portion of neutrons generated from a first neutron source and a second portion of neutrons generated from a second neutron source. Further, at least some of the first portion and the second portion are generated during a same time period. In the exemplary method, one or more neutrons from the first portion and one or more neutrons from the second portion are detected, and an image of the object is generated based at least in part on the detected neutrons from the first portion and the detected neutrons from the second portion.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Total Measurement Uncertainty in Neutron Coincidence Multiplicity Analysis

Neutron multiplicity counting is the most commonly used nondestructive assay technique for determining the plutonium mass within containers of scrap PuO 2 or mixed oxide (MOX). In multiplicity analysis, the 240 Pu eff mass, leakage multiplication, and alpha ratio (the ratio of [α, n]-to-spontaneous fission neutron production) are the three primary unknown sample properties. They must be determined simultaneously. To solve for these three unknowns in a multiplicity assay, three measured values are needed: the singles, doubles, and triples neutron count rates. While the analysis is limited to solving for three unknowns, there are many additional factors that impact the observed count rates and contribute to the measurement uncertainty. In this study we investigate the various uncertainty contributors for the multiplicity analysis through a combination of traditional uncertainty propagation techniques supplemented by Monte Carlo simulations to address the dependences not explicitly expressed by the point source model. Uncertainties arising from counting statistics, calibration parameters, calibration method, nuclear data, and various material characteristics (isotopic abundances, chemical form, density, and impurities) are considered. A Total Measurement Uncertainty (TMU) estimate is then developed from these uncertainty contributors. This study is confined to multiplicity analysis of items commonly encountered in international safeguards applications. That is, the study focused on Pu oxides and MOX materials for the masses ranging up to 4000 grams total Pu. Multiplicity measurements were simulated using MCNP V6 based on the Plutonium Scrap Multiplicity Counter (PSMC), Epithermal Multiplicity Counter (ENMC), Pyrochemical Multiplicity Counter, and Large Epithermal Multiplicity Counter (LEMC) for this study; however, this report focuses on the parameterization of the uncertainties for the PSMC. The performance differences between the PSMC and the other multiplicity counting systems are relatively small, primarily manifesting in the impact on measurement precision so that the evaluation developed for the PSMC can be applied to the other multiplicity counting systems. Finally an analysis tool, the Multiplicity TMU Estimator, was developed from this study to serve as an aid for evaluation of the total measurement uncertainty of multiplicity assay results obtained from the commonly used INCC acquisition and analysis software.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

CD46-Targeted Theranostics for PET and 225 Ac-Radiopharmaceutical Therapy of Multiple Myeloma

Multiple myeloma is a plasma cell malignancy with an unmet clinical need for improved imaging methods and therapeutics. Recently, we identified CD46 as an overexpressed therapeutic target in multiple myeloma and developed the antibody YS5, which targets a cancer-specific epitope on this protein. We further developed the CD46-targeting PET probe [ 89 Zr]Zr-DFO-YS5 for imaging and [ 225 Ac]Ac-DOTA-YS5 for radiopharmaceutical therapy of prostate cancer. These prior studies suggested the feasibility of the CD46 antigen as a theranostic target in multiple myeloma. Herein, we validate [ 89 Zr]Zr-DFO-YS5 for immunoPET imaging and [ 225 Ac]Ac-DOTA-YS5 for radiopharmaceutical therapy of multiple myeloma in murine models. In vitro saturation binding was performed using the CD46 expressing MM.1S multiple myeloma cell line. ImmunoPET imaging using [ 89 Zr]Zr-DFO-YS5 was performed in immunodeficient (NSG) mice bearing subcutaneous and systemic multiple myeloma xenografts. For radioligand therapy, [ 225 Ac]Ac-DOTA-YS5 was prepared, and both dose escalation and fractionated dose treatment studies were performed in mice bearing MM1.S-Luc systemic xenografts. Tumor burden was analyzed using BLI, and body weight and overall survival were recorded to assess antitumor effect and toxicity. [ 89 Zr]Zr-DFO-YS5 demonstrated high affinity for CD46 expressing MM.1S multiple myeloma cells (K d = 16.3 nmol/L). In vitro assays in multiple myeloma cell lines demonstrated high binding, and bioinformatics analysis of human multiple myeloma samples revealed high CD46 expression. [ 89 Zr]Zr-DFO-YS5 PET/CT specifically detected multiple myeloma lesions in a variety of models, with low uptake in controls, including CD46 knockout (KO) mice or multiple myeloma mice using a nontargeted antibody. In the MM.1S systemic model, localization of uptake on PET imaging correlated well with the luciferase expression from tumor cells. A treatment study using [ 225 Ac]Ac-DOTA-YS5 in the MM.1S systemic model demonstrated a clear tumor volume and survival benefit in the treated groups. Our study showed that the CD46-targeted probe [ 89 Zr]Zr-DFO-YS5 can successfully image CD46-expressing multiple myeloma xenografts in murine models, and [ 225 Ac]Ac-DOTA-YS5 can effectively inhibit the growth of multiple myeloma. These results demonstrate that CD46 is a promising theranostic target for multiple myeloma, with the potential for clinical translation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Differential expression of estrogen receptor α and β isoforms in multiple and solitary leiomyomas

Uterine leiomyomas are benign myometrial neoplasms that function as one of the common indications for hysterectomy. Clinical and biological evidences indicate that uterine leiomyomas are estrogen-dependent. Estrogen stimulates cell proliferation through binding to the estrogen receptor (ER), of which both subtypes α and β are present in leiomyomas. Clinically, leiomyomas may be singular or multiple, where the first one is rarely recurring if removed and the latter associated to a relatively young age or genetic predisposition. These markedly different clinical phenotypes indicate that there may different mechanism causing a similar smooth muscle response. To investigate the relative expression of ERα and ERβ in multiple and solitary uterine leiomyomas, we collected samples from 35 Chinese women (multiple leiomyomas n = 20, solitary leiomyoma n = 15) undergoing surgery to remove uterine leiomyomas. ELISA assay was performed to detect estrogen(E{sub 2}) concentration. Quantitative real-time PCR analysis was performed to detect ERα and ERβ mRNA expression. Western blot and immunohistochemical analysis were performed to detect ERα and ERβ protein expression. We found that ERα mRNA and protein levels of in multiple leiomyomas were significantly lower than those of solitary leiomyomas, whereas ERβ mRNA and protein levels in multiple leiomyomas were significantly higher than those in solitary leiomyomas, irrespectively of the menstrual cycle stage. In both multiple and solitary leiomyomas, ERα expression was higher than that of ERβ. E{sub 2} concentration in multiple and solitary leiomyomas correlated with that of ERα expression. ERα was present in nuclus and cytoplasma while estrogen receptor β localized only in nuclei in both multiple and solitary leiomyomas. Our findings suggest that the difference of ERα and ERβ expression between multiple and solitary leiomyomas may be responsible for the course of the disease subtypes. - Highlights: • In both multiple and solitary leiomyomas, ERα expression was higher than that of ERβ. • ERα was significantly lower, whereas ERβ was significantly higher in multiple leiomyomas than that in solitary leiomyomas. • The differential expression of ERα and ERβ may be responsible for the cause of the disease subtypes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The Multiplicity of M Dwarfs in Young Moving Groups

We image 104 newly identified low-mass (mostly M-dwarf) pre-main sequence (PMS) members of nearby young moving groups (YMGs) with Magellan Adaptive Optics (MagAO) and identify 27 stellar binaries with instantaneous projected separation as small as 40 mas. Fifteen were previously unknown. The total number of multiple systems in this sample including spectroscopic and visual binaries from the literature is 36, giving a raw stellar multiplicity rate of at least 35{sub −4}{sup +5}% for this population. In the separation range of roughly 1–300 au in which infrared AO imaging is most sensitive, the raw multiplicity rate is at least 24{sub −4}{sup +5}% for binaries resolved by the MagAO infrared camera (Clio). The M-star subsample of 87 stars yields a raw multiplicity of at least 30{sub −4}{sup +5}% over all separations, 21{sub −4}{sup +5}% for secondary companions resolved by Clio from 1 to 300 au (23{sub −4}{sup +5}% for all known binaries in this separation range). A combined analysis with binaries discovered by the Search for Associations Containing Young stars shows that stellar multiplicity fraction as a function of mass over the range of 0.2 to 1.2 M {sub ☉} appears to be linearly flat, in contrast to the field, where multiplicity increases with mass. After bias corrections are applied, the multiplicity of low-mass YMG members (0.2–0.6 M {sub ☉}) is in excess of the field. The overall multiplicity fraction is also consistent with being constant in age and across YMGs, which suggests that multiplicity rates for this mass range are largely set by 10 Myr without appreciable evolution thereafter.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Multiple Renal Artery Pseudoaneurysms in Patients Undergoing Renal Artery Embolization Following Partial Nephrectomy: Correlation with RENAL Nephrometry Scores

PurposeTo describe the incidence of multiple renal artery pseudoaneurysms (PSA) in patients referred for renal artery embolization following partial nephrectomy and to study its relationship to RENAL nephrometry scores.Materials and MethodsThe medical records of 25 patients referred for renal artery embolization after partial nephrectomy were retrospectively reviewed for the following parameters: size and number of tumors, RENAL nephrometry scores, angiographic abnormalities, technical and clinical outcomes, and estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFRs) after embolization.ResultsTwenty-four patients had primary renal tumors, while 1 patient had a pancreatic tumor invading the kidney. Multiple tumors were resected in 4 patients. Most patients (92 %) were symptomatic, presenting with gross hematuria, flank pain, or both. Angiography revealed PSA with (n = 5) or without (n = 20) AV fistulae. Sixteen patients (64 %) had multiple PSA involving multiple renal vessels. Higher RENAL nephrometry scores were associated with an increasing likelihood of multiple PSA. Multiple vessels were embolized in 14 patients (56 %). Clinical success was achieved after one (n = 22) or two (n = 3) embolization sessions in all patients. Post-embolization eGFR values at different time points after embolization were not significantly different from the post-operative eGFR.ConclusionA majority of patients requiring renal artery embolization following partial nephrectomy have multiple pseudoaneurysms, often requiring selective embolization of multiple vessels. Higher RENAL nephrometry score is associated with an increasing likelihood of multiple pseudoaneurysms. We found transarterial embolization to be a safe and effective treatment option with no long-term adverse effect on renal function in all but one patient with a solitary kidney.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Observation of a multiplicity dependence in the $\mathcal{p}_T$-differential charm baryon-to-meson ratios in proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

The production of prompt D 0 , D$^+_s$, and Λ$^+_c$ hadrons, and their ratios, D$^+_s$/D 0 and Λ$^+_c$/D 0 , are measured in proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV at midrapidity (|y| < 0.5) with the ALICE detector at the LHC. The measurements are performed as a function of the charm-hadron transverse momentum (p T ) in intervals of charged-particle multiplicity, measured with two multiplicity estimators covering different pseudorapidity regions. While the strange to non-strange D$^+_s$/D 0 ratio indicates no significant multiplicity dependence, the baryon-to-meson p T -differential Λ$^+_c$/D 0 ratio shows a multiplicity-dependent enhancement, with a significance of 5.3σ for 1 < p T < 12 GeV/c, comparing the highest multiplicity interval with respect to the lowest one. The measurements are compared with a theoretical model that explains the multiplicity dependence by a canonical treatment of quantum charges in the statistical hadronisation approach, and with predictions from event generators that implement colour reconnection mechanisms beyond the leading colour approximation to model the hadronisation process. The Λ$^+_c$/D 0 ratios as a function of p T present a similar shape and magnitude as the Λ/K$^0_s$ ratios in comparable multiplicity intervals, suggesting a potential common mechanism for light- and charm-hadron formation, with analogous multiplicity dependence. The p T -integrated ratios, extrapolated down to p T = 0, do not show a significant dependence on multiplicity within the uncertainties.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Characterizing Shielded Special Nuclear Material by Neutron Capture Gamma-Ray Multiplicity Counting

We present a new neutron multiplicity counting analysis and measurement method for neutron-shielded fissile material using neutron-capture gamma rays. Neutrons absorbed in shielding produce characteristic gamma rays that preserve the otherwise lost neutron multiplicity signature. Neutron multiplicity counting provides estimates of fission parameters, such as neutron leakage multiplication, spontaneous fissioner (e.g. Pu-240) mass, and (α,n) ratio. Standard neutron multiplicity counting can incorporate the new neutron-capture gamma-ray multiplicity counting technique to characterize previously degenerate or intractable source configurations by maximizing the multiplicity signature. The new method decouples neutron source-detector interferences, such as reflection and thermalization time in the detector, that could improve measurements of the mean neutron lifetime. We also develop a detector prototype for the multiplicity counting of neutron-capture gamma rays and present detector design considerations, such as detection material and shielding, to optimize the detection of the 2.2 MeV hydrogen capture gamma ray. We simulate the prototype neutron- capture gamma-ray multiplicity counter against the BeRP ball in polyethylene shells to inform future measurements.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗