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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Alteration of forest succession and carbon cycling under elevated CO 2

Abstract Regenerating forests influence the global carbon (C) cycle, and understanding how climate change will affect patterns of regeneration and C storage is necessary to predict the rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) increase in future decades. While experimental elevation of CO 2 has revealed that young forests respond with increased productivity, there remains considerable uncertainty as to how the long‐term dynamics of forest regrowth are shaped by elevated CO 2 (eCO 2 ). Here, we use the mechanistic size‐ and age‐ structured Ecosystem Demography model to investigate the effects of CO 2 enrichment on forest regeneration, using data from the Duke Forest Free‐Air Carbon dioxide Enrichment (FACE) experiment, a forest chronosequence, and an eddy‐covariance tower for model parameterization and evaluation. We find that the dynamics of forest regeneration are accelerated, and stands consistently hit a variety of developmental benchmarks earlier under eCO 2 . Because responses to eCO 2 varied by plant functional type, successional pathways, and mature forest composition differed under eCO 2 , with mid‐ and late‐successional hardwood functional types experiencing greater increases in biomass compared to early‐successional functional types and the pine canopy. Over the simulation period, eCO 2 led to an increase in total ecosystem C storage of 9.7 Mg C ha ‐1 . Model predictions of mature forest biomass and ecosystem–atmosphere exchange of CO 2 and H 2 O were sensitive to assumptions about nitrogen limitation; both the magnitude and persistence of the ecosystem response to eCO 2 were reduced under N limitation. In summary, our simulations demonstrate that eCO 2 can result in a general acceleration of forest regeneration while altering the course of successional change and having a lasting impact on forest ecosystems.

Miller, Adam D.↗
DOE OSTI2015

Comparison of the kinetics of different Markov models for ligand binding under varying conditions

We recently derived a Markov model for macromolecular ligand binding dynamics from few physical assumptions and showed that its stationary distribution is the grand canonical ensemble [J. W. R. Martini, M. Habeck, and M. Schlather, J. Math. Chem. 52, 665 (2014)]. The transition probabilities of the proposed Markov process define a particular Glauber dynamics and have some similarity to the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Here, we illustrate that this model is the stochastic analog of (pseudo) rate equations and the corresponding system of differential equations. Moreover, it can be viewed as a limiting case of general stochastic simulations of chemical kinetics. Thus, the model links stochastic and deterministic approaches as well as kinetics and equilibrium described by the grand canonical ensemble. We demonstrate that the family of transition matrices of our model, parameterized by temperature and ligand activity, generates ligand binding kinetics that respond to changes in these parameters in a qualitatively similar way as experimentally observed kinetics. In contrast, neither the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm nor the Glauber heat bath reflects changes in the external conditions correctly. Both converge rapidly to the stationary distribution, which is advantageous when the major interest is in the equilibrium state, but fail to describe the kinetics of ligand binding realistically. To simulate cellular processes that involve the reversible stochastic binding of multiple factors, our pseudo rate equation model should therefore be preferred to the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and the Glauber heat bath, if the stationary distribution is not of only interest.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

The physiological basis for estimating photosynthesis from Chl>em>a fluorescence

We report solar-induced Chl fluorescence (SIF) offers the potential to curb large uncertainties in the estimation of photosynthesis across biomes and climates, and at different spatiotemporal scales. However, it remains unclear how SIF should be used to mechanistically estimate photosynthesis. In this study, we built a quantitative framework for the estimation of photosynthesis, based on a mechanistic light reaction model with the Chla fluorescence of Photosystem II (SIFPSII) as an input (MLR-SIF). Utilizing 29 C 3 and C 4 plant species that are representative of major plant biomes across the globe, we confirmed the validity of this framework at the leaf level. The MLR-SIF model is capable of accurately reproducing photosynthesis for all C 3 and C 4 species under diverse light, temperature, and CO 2 conditions. We further tested the robustness of the MLR-SIF model using Monte Carlo simulations, and found that photosynthesis estimates were much less sensitive to parameter uncertainties relative to the conventional Farquhar, von Caemmerer, Berry (FvCB) model because of the additional independent information contained in SIF PSII . Once inferred from direct observables of SIF, SIF PSII provides ‘parameter savings’ to the MLR-SIF model, compared to the mechanistically equivalent FvCB model, and thus avoids the uncertainties arising as a result of imperfect model parameterization. Our findings set the stage for future efforts to employ SIF mechanistically to improve photosynthesis estimates across a variety of scales, functional groups, and environmental conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Signatures of Velocity-dependent Dark Matter Self-interactions in Milky Way-mass Halos

In this work, we explore the impact of elastic, anisotropic, velocity-dependent dark matter (DM) self-interactions on the host halo and subhalos of Milky Way (MW)--mass systems. We consider a generic self-interacting dark matter (SIDM) model parameterized by the masses of a light mediator and the DM particle. The ratio of these masses, w, sets the velocity scale above which momentum transfer due to DM self-interactions becomes inefficient. We perform high-resolution zoom-in simulations of an MW-mass halo for values of w that span scenarios in which self-interactions either between the host and its subhalos or only within subhalos efficiently transfer momentum, and we study the effects of self-interactions on the host halo and on the abundance, radial distribution, orbital dynamics, and density profiles of subhalos in each case. The abundance and properties of surviving subhalos are consistent with being determined primarily by subhalo--host halo interactions. In particular, subhalos on radial orbits in models with larger values of the cross section at the host halo velocity scale are more susceptible to tidal disruption owing to mass loss from ram pressure stripping caused by self-interactions with the host. This mechanism suppresses the abundance of surviving subhalos relative to collisionless DM simulations, with stronger suppression for larger values of w. Thus, probes of subhalo abundance around MW-mass hosts can be used to place upper limits on the self-interaction cross section at velocity scales of ~200 km s-1, and combining these measurements with the orbital properties and internal dynamics of subhalos may break degeneracies among velocity-dependent SIDM models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Using the concordance of in vitro and in vivo data to evaluate extrapolation assumptions

Linking in vitro bioactivity and in vivo toxicity on a dose basis enables the use of highthroughput in vitro assays as an alternative to traditional animal studies. In this study, we evaluated assumptions in the use of a high-throughput, physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) model to relate in vitro bioactivity and rat in vivo toxicity data. The fraction unbound in plasma (fup) and intrinsic hepatic clearance (Clint) were measured for rats (for 67 and 77 chemicals, respectively), combined with fup and Clint literature data for 97 chemicals, and incorporated in the PBTK model. Of these chemicals, 84 had corresponding in vitro ToxCast bioactivity data and in vivo toxicity data. For each possible comparison of in vitro and in vivo endpoint, the concordance between the in vivo and in vitro data was evaluated by a regression analysis. For a base set of assumptions, the PBTK results were more frequently better associated than either the results from a “random” model parameterization or direct comparison of the “untransformed” values of AC50 and dose (performed best in 51%, 28%, and 21% of cases, respectively). We also investigated several assumptions in the application of PBTK for IVIVE, including clearance and internal dose selection. One of the better assumptions sets–restrictive clearance and comparing free in vivo venous plasma concentration with free in vitro concentration–outperformed the random and untransformed results in 71% of the in vitro-in vivo endpoint comparisons. These results demonstrate that applying PBTK improves our ability to observe the association between in vitro bioactivity and in vivo toxicity data in general. This suggests that potency values from in vitro screening should be transformed using in vitro-in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) to build potentially better machine learning and other statistical models for predicting in vivo toxicity in humans

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Explicitly representing soil microbial processes in Earth system models: Soil microbes in earth system models

Microbes influence soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition and the long-term stabilization of carbon (C) in soils. Herein, we contend that by revising the representation of microbial processes and their interactions with the physicochemical soil environment, Earth system models (ESMs) may make more realistic global C cycle projections. Explicit representation of microbial processes presents considerable challenges due to the scale at which these processes occur. Thus, applying microbial theory in ESMs requires a framework to link micro-scale process-level understanding and measurements to macro-scale models used to make decadal- to century-long projections. Here, we review the diversity, advantages, and pitfalls of simulating soil biogeochemical cycles using microbial-explicit modeling approaches. We present a roadmap for how to begin building, applying, and evaluating reliable microbial-explicit model formulations that can be applied in ESMs. Drawing from experience with traditional decomposition models we suggest: (1) guidelines for common model parameters and output that can facilitate future model intercomparisons; (2) development of benchmarking and model-data integration frameworks that can be used to effectively guide, inform, and evaluate model parameterizations with data from well-curated repositories; and (3) the application of scaling methods to integrate microbial-explicit soil biogeochemistry modules within ESMs. With contributions across scientific disciplines, we feel this roadmap can advance our fundamental understanding of soil biogeochemical dynamics and more realistically project likely soil C response to environmental change at global scales.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying Uncertainty in Ice Particle Velocity–Dimension Relationships Using MC3E Observations

Abstract Ice particle terminal fall velocity ( V t ) is fundamental for determining microphysical processes, yet remains extremely challenging to measure. Current theoretical best estimates of V t are functions of Reynolds number. The Reynolds number is related to the Best number, which is a function of ice particle mass, area ratio ( A r ), and maximum dimension ( D max ). These estimates are not conducive for use in most models since model parameterizations often take the form , where ( α , β ) depend on habit and D max . A previously developed framework is used to determine surfaces of equally plausible ( α , β ) coefficients whereby ice particle size/shape distributions are combined with V t best estimates to determine mass- ( V M ) or reflectivity-weighted ( V Z ) velocities that closely match parameterized V M ,SD or V Z ,SD calculated using the ( α , β ) coefficients using two approaches. The first uses surfaces of equally plausible ( a , b ) coefficients describing mass ( M )–dimension relationships (i.e., ) to calculate mass- or reflectivity-weighted velocity from size/shape distributions that are then used to determine ( α , β ) coefficients. The second investigates how uncertainties in A r , D max , and size distribution N ( D ) affect V M or V Z . For seven of nine flight legs flown on 20 and 23 May 2011 during the Mesoscale Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E), uncertainty from natural parameter variability—namely, the variability in ice particle parameters in similar meteorological conditions—exceeds uncertainties arising from different A r assumptions or D max estimates. The combined uncertainty between A r , D max , and N ( D ) produced smaller variability in ( α , β ) compared to varying M ( D ), demonstrating M ( D ) must be accurately quantified for model fall velocities. Primary sources of uncertainty vary considerably depending on environmental conditions. Significance Statement Ice particle fall velocity is fundamental for numerous processes within clouds, and hence is a critical property that must be accurately represented in weather and climate models. Using aircraft observations of ice particle shapes and sizes obtained in clouds behind midlatitude thunderstorms, this work develops a new framework for estimating ice particle fall velocities and their uncertainty, including quantifying the importance of different uncertainty sources from cloud microphysics measurements. Natural parameter variability contributes the most uncertainty in ice particle fall velocity estimates, although other sources can also be important contributors to uncertainty in certain conditions. Additional work examining ice particle data is needed to further understand how dependent uncertainty in certain ice particle properties are to local environmental conditions.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2018

Connecting AmeriFlux to the Globe, Extending the Partnership with Global Flux Network FLUXNET

We propose a project that will extend and expand the activities and contributions of AmeriFlux, to the global stage by working with our international partners to continue operating and expand the functioning of global FLUXNET database. One goal is to produce the next-generation FLUXNET dataset. This will be an integrated dataset on carbon, water and energy fluxes, on meteorological conditions and on the structure and function of the ecosystems; we have to potential to construct a new database, double the size of the La Thuile dataset, with over 2000 site-years of trace gas flux measurements, and supporting meteorological and site meta-data from over 400 sites world-wide. The production of the next FLUXNET database is critical to the activities of this ROSE’s solicitation because these data will drive many of the carbon cycle synthesis activities and the model parameterization and validation activities. A second goal is to build the next-generation, data-system that will house, distribute and query data and discover new information by the broader biogeoscience user community. The third goal is to use these data in synthesis activities that improve our understanding on how climate, weather, ecological, physiological and soil factors govern the exchange of carbon, water and energy between vegetation and the atmosphere at multiple time and space scales. The fourth goal is to act as a coordinator of the project to recruit data, to organize a workshop/conference and to build a community of data sharing and interaction across vast cultural spectrum of participating scientists. The rationale for proposing this work is based on the fact that the vast databases that are produced by flux networks cannot perpetuate and evolve without continued support of the intellectual activities of scientists who produce data, expert in databases, and scientists who use data for modeling. The actuality of a flux network takes human intervention to recruit data from different countries and cultures, to build trust to share data in open-access format, to support data users, and to collaborate. Specifically, we will develop an updated data portal that is easy to navigate and conducive for distributing, visualization, evaluation and discovery of the multiple types of flux and environmental data and information. We will foster collaboration and interactions with our national and international partners and the recruitment of data by: 1) continuing the periodic publication of the newsletter, FLUXLETTER; 2) by hosting an international conference; 3) by coordinating and launching multi-investigator data synthesis activities; and 4) by developing tools that coordinate the development of research papers resulting from the dataset. Data products include raw and gap-filled data at their native time steps (30 minute averages), data products that are integrated on daily and annual time scales and value added products like ecosystem respiration and canopy photosynthesis. Uncertainty analysis and quality control metrics will be produced in coordination with AmeriFlux and ICOS. We will also work with colleagues to expand the scope of FLUXNET beyond carbon dioxide and water vapor, and start archiving the growing methane flux databases that are being collected, world-wide. The interpretation of the flux data relies on good meta-data. We will work with data providers to populate and expand the meta-data archives. We will also work with collaborators to incorporate data from remote sensing products such as MODIS and Landsat, from corresponding climate and weather stations. Another goal is to incorporate new data on canopy structure, with recent LIDAR acquisitions, to populate the data archive with automated soil respiration and understory flux measurements, where available and local climate records for corresponding sites. And, we will collaborate with the TRY database, by merging flux data with plant trait information.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The importance of explicitly representing the streambed in watershed models

Abstract The streambed is the critical interface between the aquatic and terrestrial systems and hosts important biogeochemical hot spots within river corridors. Although the streambed characteristics are significantly different from those of its surrounding soil, the streambed itself has not been explicitly represented in watershed models. Here, we explicitly incorporated a streambed layer into an integrated hydrologic model through model parameterization and discretization. We examined the hydrological effects of streambed characteristics, including hydraulic conductivity ( K ), layer thickness, and resolution, on the exchange fluxes across the streambed as well as the streamflow at the watershed outlet. The numerical experiments were performed in the American River Watershed, a headwater, mountainous watershed within the Yakima River Basin in central Washington. Despite having a negligible effect on the watershed streamflow, an explicit representation of the streambed with distinctive properties dramatically changed the magnitude and variability of the exchange flux. In general, a larger streambed K along with a thicker streambed layer induced larger exchange fluxes. The exchange flux was most sensitive to the streambed resolution. A finer streambed resolution increased exchange fluxes per unit area while reducing the overall exchange volumes across the entire streambed. The amount of baseflow decreased by 6% as the streambed resolution increased from 250 to 50 m. This finding is important because these hydrological changes may, in turn, affect the exchange of nutrients and contaminants between surface water and groundwater and the associated biogeochemical processes. Our work demonstrated the importance of representing streambeds in fully distributed, process‐based watershed models to better capture the exchange flow dynamics in river corridors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Polychromatic sparse image reconstruction and mass attenuation spectrum estimation via B-spline basis function expansion

We develop a sparse image reconstruction method for polychromatic computed tomography (CT) measurements under the blind scenario where the material of the inspected object and the incident energy spectrum are unknown. To obtain a parsimonious measurement model parameterization, we first rewrite the measurement equation using our mass-attenuation parameterization, which has the Laplace integral form. The unknown mass-attenuation spectrum is expanded into basis functions using a B-spline basis of order one. We develop a block coordinate-descent algorithm for constrained minimization of a penalized negative log-likelihood function, where constraints and penalty terms ensure nonnegativity of the spline coefficients and sparsity of the density map image in the wavelet domain. This algorithm alternates between a Nesterov’s proximal-gradient step for estimating the density map image and an active-set step for estimating the incident spectrum parameters. Numerical simulations demonstrate the performance of the proposed scheme.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Interactive multiscale modeling to bridge atomic properties and electrochemical performance in Li-CO 2 battery design

Li-CO 2 batteries are promising energy storage systems due to their high theoretical energy density and CO 2 fixation capability, relying on reversible Li 2 CO 3 /C formation during discharge/charge cycles. Here, we present a multiscale modeling framework integrating Density Functional Theory (DFT), Ab-Initio Molecular Dynamics (AIMD), classical Molecular Dynamics (MD), and Finite Element Analysis (FEA) to investigate atomic and cell-level properties. The considered Li-CO 2 battery consists of a lithium metal anode, an ionic liquid electrolyte, and a carbon cloth cathode with Sb 0.67 Bi 1.33 Te 3 catalyst. DFT and AIMD determined the electrical conductivities of Sb 0.67 Bi 1.33 Te 3 and Li 2 CO 3 using the Kubo–Greenwood formalism and studied the CO 2 reduction mechanism on the cathode catalyst. MD simulations calculated the CO 2 diffusion coefficient, Li + transference number, ionic conductivity, and Li + solvation structure. The FEA model, parameterized with atomistic simulation data, reproduced the available experimental voltage–capacity profile at 1 mA/cm 2 and revealed spatio-temporal variations in Li 2 CO 3 /C deposition, porosity, and CO 2 concentration dependence on discharge rates in the cathode. Accordingly, Li 2 CO 3 can form large and thin film deposits, leading to dispersed and local porosity changes at 0.1 mA/cm 2 and 1 mA/cm 2 , respectively. The capacity decreases exponentially from 81,570 mAh/g at 0.1 mA/cm 2 to 6200 mAh/g at 1 mA/cm 2 , due to pore clogging from excessive discharge product deposition that limits CO 2 transport to the cathode interior. Therefore, the performance of Li-CO 2 batteries can be improved by enhancing CO 2 transport, regulating Li 2 CO 3 deposition, and optimizing cathode architecture.

Battery performance↗
DOE OSTI2021

Substantial hysteresis in emergent temperature sensitivity of global wetland CH4 emissions

Abstract Wetland methane (CH 4 ) emissions ( $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 ) are important in global carbon budgets and climate change assessments. Currently, $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 projections rely on prescribed static temperature sensitivity that varies among biogeochemical models. Meta-analyses have proposed a consistent $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 temperature dependence across spatial scales for use in models; however, site-level studies demonstrate that $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 are often controlled by factors beyond temperature. Here, we evaluate the relationship between $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 and temperature using observations from the FLUXNET-CH 4 database. Measurements collected across the globe show substantial seasonal hysteresis between $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 and temperature, suggesting larger $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 sensitivity to temperature later in the frost-free season (about 77% of site-years). Results derived from a machine-learning model and several regression models highlight the importance of representing the large spatial and temporal variability within site-years and ecosystem types. Mechanistic advancements in biogeochemical model parameterization and detailed measurements in factors modulating CH 4 production are thus needed to improve global CH 4 budget assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Modeling East Asian Dust and Its Radiative Feedbacks in CAM4-BAM

East Asian dust and its radiative feedbacks are analyzed by the use of the fourth version of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) with a bulk aerosol model parameterization (BAM) for the dust size distribution (CAM4-BAM). Two numerical experiments are conducted and intercompared: one with (Active) and one without (Passive) the radiative effects of dust aerosols. This CAM4-BAM captures the main spatial distribution of the dust aerosol optical depth (AOD) and the dust surface concentrations over East Asia, with positive correlations with the local observational data on annual and seasonal means. A comparative analysis of the Active and Passive experiments reveals that consideration of the dust-radiation interaction can significantly reduce dust emissions, loading, transport, and dry and wet depositions over East Asia, which is opposite to the enhanced dust cycle over North Africa. Further analysis of the contrasting dust-radiation feedbacks between North Africa and East Asia shows that over North Africa, the dust radiative forcing significantly increases the surface temperature and 10-m wind speed, whereas it decreases the surface temperature and the surface wind speeds over East Asia. These contrasting radiative effects, in turn, result in distinct dust cycle changes over these two regions. Thus, mechanistic analysis reveals that the radiative contrasts between East Asia and North Africa are mainly due to the differences in their regional surface albedo, dust vertical distribution and size distribution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Non-singlet quark helicity $\mathrm{PDF}$s of the nucleon from pseudo-distributions

The non-singlet helicity quark parton distribution functions (PDFs) of the nucleon are determined from lattice QCD, by jointly leveraging pseudo-distributions and the distillation spatial smearing paradigm. A Lorentz decomposition of appropriately isolated space-like matrix elements reveals pseudo-distributions that contain information on the leading-twist helicity PDFs, as well as an invariant amplitude that induces an additional z 2 contamination of the leading-twist signal. An analysis of the short-distance behavior of the space-like matrix elements using matching coefficients computed to next-to-leading order (NLO) exposes the desired PDF up to this additional z 2 contamination. Due to the non-conservation of the axial current, we elect to isolate the helicity PDFs normalized by the nucleon axial charge at the same scale μ 2 . The leading-twist helicity PDFs as well as several sources of systematic error, including higher-twist effects, discretization errors, and the aforementioned z 2 contaminating amplitude are jointly determined by characterizing the computed pseudo-distribution in a basis of Jacobi polynomials. The Akaike Information Criterion is exploited to effectively average over distinct model parameterizations and cuts on the pseudo-distribution. Encouraging agreement is observed with recent global analyses of each non-singlet quark helicity PDF, notably a rather small non-singlet anti-quark helicity PDF for all quark momentum fractions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Forest productivity varies with soil moisture more than temperature in a small montane watershed

Mountainous terrain creates variability in microclimate, including nocturnal cold air drainage and resultant temperature inversions. Driven by the elevational temperature gradient, vapor pressure deficit (VPD) also varies with elevation. Soil depth and moisture availability often increase from ridgetop to valley bottom. These variations complicate predictions of forest productivity and other biological responses. We analyzed spatiotemporal air temperature (T) and VPD variations in a forested, 27-km 2 catchment that varied from 1000 to 1650 m in elevation. Temperature inversions occurred on 76% of mornings in the growing season. The inversion had a clear upper boundary at midslope (~1370 m a.s.l.). Vapor pressure was relatively constant across elevations, therefore VPD was mainly controlled by T in the watershed. Here, we assessed the impact of microclimate and soil moisture on tree height, forest productivity, and carbon stable isotopes (δ 13 C) using a physiological forest growth model (3-PG). Simulated productivity and tree height were tested against observations derived from lidar data. The effects on photosynthetic gas-exchange of dramatic elevational variations in T and VPD largely cancelled as higher temperature (increasing productivity) accompanies higher VPD (reducing productivity). Although it was not measured, the simulations suggested that realistic elevational variations in soil moisture predicted the observed decline in productivity with elevation. Therefore, in this watershed, the model parameterization should have emphasized soil moisture rather than precise descriptions of temperature inversions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Surface water areas significantly impacted 2014 dengue outbreaks in Guangzhou, China

Dengue transmission in urban areas is strongly influenced by a range of biological and environmental factors, yet the key drivers still need further exploration. To better understand mechanisms of environment–mosquito–urban dengue transmission, we propose an empirical model parameterized and cross-validated from a unique dataset including viral gene sequences, vector dynamics and human dengue cases in Guangzhou, China, together with a 36-year urban environmental change maps investigated by spatiotemporal satellite image fusion. The dengue epidemics in Guangzhou are highly episodic and were not associated with annual rainfall over time. Our results indicate that urban environmental changes, especially variations in surface area covered by water in urban areas, can substantially alter the virus population and dengue transmission. The recent severe dengue outbreaks in Guangzhou may be due to the surge in an artificial lake construction, which could increase infection force between vector (mainly Aedes albopictus) and host when urban water area significantly increased. Impacts of urban environmental change on dengue dynamics may not have been thoroughly investigated in the past studies and more work needs to be done to better understand the consequences of urbanization processes in our changing world. - Highlights: • Urban dengue outbreak is associated with water area in Guangzhou, 1978–2014. • Surface water area can alter population size of dengue virus in urban area. • Urban dengue outbreak is not associated with annual rainfall in Guangzhou. • Spatiotemporal satellite image fusion can investigate urban environmental change. • Urban environmental change could induce virus, vector, and dengue epidemic change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-Informed Gaussian Process Regression for States Estimation and Forecasting in Power Grids

Real-time state estimation and forecasting are critical for the efficient operation of power grids. In this paper, a physics-informed Gaussian process regression (PhI-GPR) method is presented and used for forecasting and estimating the phase angle, angular speed, and wind mechanical power of a three-generator power grid system using sparse measurements. In standard data-driven Gaussian process regression (GPR), parameterized models for the prior statistics are fit by maximizing the marginal likelihood of observed data. In the PhI-GPR method, we propose to compute the prior statistics offline by solving stochastic differential equations (SDEs) governing the power grid dynamics. The short-term forecast of a power grid system dominated by wind generation is complicated by the stochastic nature of the wind and the resulting uncertainty in wind mechanical power. Here, we assume that the power grid dynamics are governed by swing equations, with the wind mechanical power fluctuating randomly in time. We solve these equations for the mean and covariances of the power grid states using the Monte Carlo simulation method. We demonstrate that the proposed PhI-GPR method can accurately forecast and estimate observed and unobserved states. For the considered problem, PhI-GPR has computational advantages over the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method: In PhI-GPR, ensembles are computed offline and independently of the data acquisition process, whereas for EnFK, ensembles are computed online with data acquisition, rendering real-time forecast more challenging. We also demonstrate that the PhI-GPR forecast is more accurate than the EnKF forecast when the random mechanical wind power is non-Markovian. In contrast, the two methods produce similar forecasts for the Markovian mechanical wind power. For observed states, we show that PhI-GPR provides a forecast comparable to the standard data-driven GPR; both forecasts are significantly more accurate than the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecast. We also show that the ARIMA forecast is more sensitive to observation frequency and measurement errors than the PhI-GPR forecast.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗