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At least 235 records · Page 13

Climate Modeling and Causal Identification for Sea Ice Predictability

This project aims to better understand causes of ongoing changes in the Arctic climate system, particularly as decreasing sea ice trends have been observed in recent decades and are expected to continue in the future. As part of the Sea Ice Prediction Network, a multi-agency effort to improve sea ice prediction products on seasonal-to-interannual time scales, our team is studying sensitivity of sea ice to a collection of physical process and feedback mechanism in the coupled climate system. During 2017 we completed a set of climate model simulations using the fully coupled ACME-HiLAT model. The simulations consisted of experiments in which cloud, sea ice, and air-ocean turbulent exchange parameters previously identified as important for driving output uncertainty in climate models were perturbed to account for parameter uncertainty in simulated climate variables. We conducted a sensitivity study to these parameters, which built upon a previous study we made for standalone simulations (Urrego-Blanco et al., 2016, 2017). Using the results from the ensemble of coupled simulations, we are examining robust relationships between climate variables that emerge across the experiments. We are also using causal discovery techniques to identify interaction pathways among climate variables which can help identify physical mechanisms and provide guidance in predictability studies. This work further builds on and leverages the large ensemble of standalone sea ice simulations produced in our previous w14_seaice project.

"Sea ice" uncertainty↗

Combining Phase Identification and Statistic Modeling for Automated Parallel Benchmark Generation

Parallel application benchmarks are indispensable for evaluating/optimizing HPC software and hardware. However, it is very challenging and costly to obtain high-fidelity benchmarks reflecting the scale and complexity of state-of-the-art parallel applications. Hand-extracted synthetic benchmarks are time-and labor-intensive to create. Real applications themselves, while offering most accurate performance evaluation, are expensive to compile, port, reconfigure, and often plainly inaccessible due to security or ownership concerns. This work contributes APPRIME, a novel tool for trace-based automatic parallel benchmark generation. Taking as input standard communication-I/O traces of an application's execution, it couples accurate automatic phase identification with statistical regeneration of event parameters to create compact, portable, and to some degree reconfigurable parallel application benchmarks. Experiments with four NAS Parallel Benchmarks (NPB) and three real scientific simulation codes confirm the fidelity of APPRIME benchmarks. They retain the original applications' performance characteristics, in particular the relative performance across platforms.

Jin, Ye↗

Parameter identification in continuum models

Approximation techniques for use in numerical schemes for estimating spatially varying coefficients in continuum models such as those for Euler-Bernoulli beams are discussed. The techniques are based on quintic spline state approximations and cubic spline parameter approximations. Both theoretical and numerical results are presented.

Banks, H. T.↗

Parameter identification in continuum models

Approximation techniques for use in numerical schemes for estimating spatially varying coefficients in continuum models such as those for Euler-Bernoulli beams are discussed. The techniques are based on quintic spline state approximations and cubic spline parameter approximations. Both theoretical and numerical results are presented. Previously announced in STAR as N83-28934

Banks, H. T.↗

System identification of analytical models of damped structures

A procedure is presented for identifying linear nonproportionally damped system. The system damping is assumed to be representable by a real symmetric matrix. Analytical mass, stiffness and damping matrices which constitute an approximate representation of the system are assumed to be available. Given also are an incomplete set of measured natural frequencies, damping ratios and complex mode shapes of the structure, normally obtained from test data. A method is developed to find the smallest changes in the analytical model so that the improved model can exactly predict the measured modal parameters. The present method uses the orthogonality relationship to improve mass and damping matrices and the dynamic equation to find the improved stiffness matrix.

Fuh, J.-S.↗

Analysis of lateral stability of X-29 drop model using system identification methodology

A 22-percent dynamically scaled replica of the X-29 forward-swept-wing aircraft is currently being flown in radio-controlled drop tests at NASA Langley's Plumtree Test Site. Flight data were recorded from early flights in the test program, which consisted mainly of large amplitude maneuvers over wide angle-of-attack ranges with several uncontrolled wing rock episodes. A system identification study of the recorded data was undertaken to examine the stability and control derivatives which influence the lateral behavior of this vehicle with particular emphasis on the wing rock phenomenon. All major lateral stability derivatives and the damping-in-roll derivative were identified for 5-80 deg angle-of-attack by using a data partitioning methodology and a modified stepwise regression algorithm. No control effectiveness derivatives could be identified from the flights conducted so far.

Raney, David L.↗

Lateral stability analysis for X-29A drop model using system identification methodology

A 22-percent dynamically scaled replica of the X-29A forward-swept-wing airplane has been flown in radio-controlled drop tests at the NASA Langley Research Center. A system identification study of the recorded data was undertaken to examine the stability and control derivatives that influence the lateral behavior of this vehicle with particular emphasis on an observed wing rock phenomenon. All major lateral stability derivatives and the damping-in-roll derivative were identified for angles of attack from 5 to 80 degrees by using a data-partitioning methodology and a modified stepwise regression algorithm.

Raney, David L.↗

Identification of aerodynamic models for maneuvering aircraft

Due to the requirement of increased performance and maneuverability, the flight envelope of a modern fighter is frequently extended to the high angle-of-attack regime. Vehicles maneuvering in this regime are subjected to nonlinear aerodynamic loads. The nonlinearities are due mainly to three-dimensional separated flow and concentrated vortex flow that occur at large angles of attack. Accurate prediction of these nonlinear airloads is of great importance in the analysis of a vehicle's flight motion and in the design of its flight control system. A satisfactory evaluation of the performance envelope of the aircraft may require a large number of coupled computations, one for each change in initial conditions. To avoid the disadvantage of solving the coupled flow-field equations and aircraft's motion equations, an alternate approach is to use a mathematical modeling to describe the steady and unsteady aerodynamics for the aircraft equations of motion. Aerodynamic forces and moments acting on a rapidly maneuvering aircraft are, in general, nonlinear functions of motion variables, their time rate of change, and the history of maneuvering. A numerical method was developed to analyze the nonlinear and time-dependent aerodynamic response to establish the generalized indicial function in terms of motion variables and their time rates of change.

Chin, Suei↗

Identification of aerodynamic models for maneuvering aircraft

A Fourier analysis method was developed to analyze harmonic forced-oscillation data at high angles of attack as functions of the angle of attack and its time rate of change. The resulting aerodynamic responses at different frequencies are used to build up the aerodynamic models involving time integrals of the indicial type. An efficient numerical method was also developed to evaluate these time integrals for arbitrary motions based on a concept of equivalent harmonic motion. The method was verified by first using results from two-dimensional and three-dimensional linear theories. The developed models for C sub L, C sub D, and C sub M based on high-alpha data for a 70 deg delta wing in harmonic motions showed accurate results in reproducing hysteresis. The aerodynamic models are further verified by comparing with test data using ramp-type motions.

Lan, C. Edward↗

Identification of aerodynamic models for maneuvering aircraft

The method based on Fourier functional analysis and indicial formulation for aerodynamic modeling as proposed by Chin and Lan is extensively examined and improved for the purpose of general applications to realistic airplane configurations. Improvement is made to automate the calculation of model coefficients, and to evaluate more accurately the indicial integral. Test data of large angle-of-attack ranges for two different models, a 70 deg. delta wing and an F-18 model, are used to further verify the applicability of Fourier functional analysis and validate the indicial formulation. The results show that the general expression for harmonic motions throughout a range of k is capable of accurately modeling the nonlinear responses with large phase lag except in the region where an inconsistent hysteresis behavior from one frequency to the other occurs. The results by the indicial formulation indicate that more accurate results can be obtained when the motion starts from a low angle of attack where hysteresis effect is not important.

Lan, C. Edward↗

Application of System Identification to Parachute Modeling

Parachute models are used in numerous flight simulation tools to predict a wide range of parachute flight performance characteristics (e.g., parachute inflation loads, parachute stability and dynamics, vehicle touchdown conditions, and, ultimately, the safety and survivability of the system using the parachute). The current state of the art in developing parachute models is to initially estimate the parachute characteristics based on the parachute geometry and historical data and then add increased model fidelity based on data from wind tunnel and/or flight tests. This approach, however, can be deficient in identifying which parachute states (e.g., angle of attack, sideslip, angular rates, flyout angles, descent rate, dynamic pressure, proximity to other parachutes) are responsible for the parachute motion, and the relationship between those states and the forces on the parachute.

Murri, Daniel G.↗

Application of System Identification to Parachute Modeling

A series of exact analytical solutions is developed for a capsule with two parachutes to verify CAPDYN and FAST results for terminal conditions. The case described herein is for the capsule and two parachutes acting as a fixed system in terminal descent. In this simplest case, the density is modeled as a constant defined by the initial release altitude. The analytical solution predicts the system terminal dynamic pressure, velocity, and altitude for comparison with CAPDYN and FAST simulation results.

Murri, Daniel G.↗

Interval Predictor Models for Robust System Identification

This paper proposes a framework for the identification and uncertainty quantification of plant models according to multivariable data. The only restriction imposed upon such models is for their outputs to depend continuously on their parameters. An Interval Predictor Model (IPM) prescribes the parameters of a computational model as a path-connected set thereby making each predicted output an interval-valued function of its inputs. The formulation proposed seeks the parameter set for which the predicted outputs tightly enclose the data. This set, which is modeled as a semi-algebraic set of low-degree polynomials, enables the characterization of possibly strong parameter dependencies commonly found in practice. This uncertainty characterization makes the resulting plant model amenable to robust control approaches using polynomial optimization. Furthermore, we use non-convex scenario theory to assess the reliability of the resulting IPM. This assessment yields a distribution-free upper bound on the probability that future data will fall outside the predicted intervals.

interval↗