Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “model diagnostics and development”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13

Multi-fidelity equations of state and transport coefficient datasets for pulsed-power applications

Reliably simulating experiments relevant to the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) requires a detailed description of material properties across a wide range of conditions. Such properties include the equations of state, charged-particle transport coefficients, and optical properties like the opacity. Together, these properties make up the material models used in radiation-magnetohydrodynamic simulations of nuclear fusion experiments. Many of these models do not incorporate uncertainties in the data used to produce them. It is unknown whether these uncertainties significantly impact the interpretation of simulation results and diagnostics. The purpose of this work is to quantify how such uncertainties impact simulations of pulsed-power experiments. We accomplished this task by first assessing discrepancies between approaches used to generate the data. This included bringing together members of the high-energy-density community spanning the three NNSA laboratories and multiple universities. Then, using these data, we developed a general framework that systematically incorporates physical uncertainties within the material models suitable for uncertainty quantification analyses. The framework utilizes machine learning, Bayesian inference, and incorporates multi-fidelity datasets. We demonstrated the framework by quantifying the impact that material model uncertainties have on simulations of pulsed-power experiments underway on Z at Sandia National Laboratories. As a result of this work, we discovered that modest uncertainties in material models (roughly 20%) correspond to significant uncertainties in the outputs from simulations. Our framework has enabled rapid construction of material models through an automated procedure and allows for the generation of material models of interest to the NNSA.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Development of a Turbulent Liquid Spray Atomization Model for Diesel Engine Simulations (Final Technical Report)

This project addresses the systematic lack of predictive capabilities by spray models within engine CFD codes. We develop a new modeling approach to predict the breakup of diesel sprays based on recent literature showing that liquid turbulence plays a fundamental role in spray atomization. A new body of quantitative validation data is also developed as a critical element of the project, leveraging the joint capabilities of Georgia Tech’s high-pressure continuous-flow spray chamber and Argonne National Lab’s near-nozzle x-ray diagnostics at the Advanced Photon Source. This project contributes spatially-resolved measurements of drop size distribution within well-characterized diesel injectors, Spray A and D, from the Engine Combustion Network (ECN) to the engine combustion community for the first time. Utilizing this new body of measurements, we validate and demonstrate a new spray model for diesel sprays, termed the KH-Faeth model, that predicts global and local spray characteristic more accurately than the widely adopted and employed KH model. Predicted drop size distributions are seen to predict measured drops sizes both quantitatively and predictively, with accurate response in droplet size distributions over a wide range of ambient density, injection pressure, and injector nozzle size (Spray A and D) without model tuning. The KH-Faeth model can reduce error in the predicted centerline droplet size profile by up to 80% for ECN Spray D simulations when compared to use of the widely employed KH model.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Development of an end state vision to implement digital monitoring in nuclear plants

Transitioning from an onsite Maintenance & Diagnostics Center to cloud-based services offers many new opportunities with computing power and storage, but also new challenges in terms of networking and security. This report will cover everything required for that transition including data processing and uploading to cloud services, feature selection, model creation, and result visualization for decision making. Although there are several other cloud-based services (e.g. Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud), this report explores Microsoft Azure to simplify nomenclature and maintain a consistent focus. Many of the services offered by Microsoft Azure are also available in the other cloud-based services, and their differences have been recorded in other literature. The Azure services most important to a nuclear power plant including networking & security, storage & databases, and Artificial Intelligence (AI) are reviewed here. Networking covers all aspects related to communication to Azure resources including security, privacy, and redundancy. Storage & databases includes data storage, upgrading, patching, backups, and monitoring. The AI services allows the user access to the machine learning (ML) techniques developed with Azure including automated ML, anomaly detection, computer vision, and natural language processing. This report summaries the features, capabilities, and challenges when using cloud-based services in a user-friendly manner.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Root Cause Analysis of Degradation in Protonic Ceramic Electrochemical Cell with Interfacial Electrical Sensors Using Data‐Driven Machine Learning

Abstract Protonic ceramic electrochemical cells (PCECs) offer promising paths for energy storage and conversion. Despite considerable achievements made, PCECs still face challenges such as physiochemical compatibility between componenets and suboptimal solid–solid contact at the interfaces between the electrolytes and electrodes. In this study, a novel approach is proposed that combines in situ electrochemical characterization of interfacial electrical sensor embedded PCECs and machine learning to quantify the contributions of different cell components to total degradation, as well as to predict the remaining useful life. The experimental results suggest that the overpotential induced by the oxygen electrode is 48% less than that of oxygen electrode/electrolyte interfacial contact for up to 1171 h. The data‐driven machine learning simulation predicts the RUL of up to 2132 h. The root cause of degradation is overpotential increase induced by oxygen electrode, which accounts for 82.9% of total cell degradation. The success of the failure diagnostic model is demonstrated by its consistency with degradation modes that do not manifest in electrolysis fade during early real operations. This synergistic approach provides valuable insights into practical failure diagnosis of PCECs and has the potential to revolutionize their development by enabling improved performance prediction and material selection for enhanced durability and efficiency.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Direct Subsurface Measurements through Precise Micro Drilling

Wellbore integrity is a significant problem in the U.S. and worldwide, which has serious adverse environmental and energy security consequences. Wells are constructed with a cement barrier designed to last about 50 years. Indirect measurements and models are commonly used to identify wellbore damage and leakage, often producing subjective and even erroneous results. The research presented herein focuses on new technologies to improve monitoring and detection of wellbore failures (leaks) by developing a multi-step machine learning approach to localize two types of thermal defects within a wellbore model, a prototype mechatronic system for automatically drilling small diameter holes of arbitrary depth to monitor the integrity of oil and gas wells in situ, and benchtop testing and analyses to support the development of an autonomous real-time diagnostic tool to enable sensor emplacement for monitoring wellbore integrity. Each technology was supported by experimental results. This research has provided tools to aid in the detection of wellbore leaks and significantly enhanced our understanding of the interaction between small-hole drilling and wellbore materials.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Using convolutional neural networks to detect edge localized modes in DIII-D from Doppler backscattering measurements

In H-mode tokamak plasmas, the plasma is sometimes ejected beyond the edge transport barrier. These events are known as edge localized modes (ELMs). ELMs cause a loss of energy and damage the vessel walls. Understanding the physics of ELMs, and by extension, how to detect and mitigate them, is an important challenge. In this paper, we focus on two diagnostic methods—deuterium-alpha (D α ) spectroscopy and Doppler backscattering (DBS). The former detects ELMs by measuring Balmer alpha emission, while the latter uses microwave radiation to probe the plasma. DBS has the advantages of having a higher temporal resolution and robustness to damage. These advantages of DBS diagnostic may be beneficial for future operational tokamaks, and thus, data processing techniques for DBS should be developed in preparation. In sight of this, we explore the training of neural networks to detect ELMs from DBS data, using D α data as the ground truth. With shots found in the DIII-D database, the model is trained to classify each time step based on the occurrence of an ELM event. The results are promising. When tested on shots similar to those used for training, the model is capable of consistently achieving a high f1-score of 0.93. Furthermore, this score is a performance metric for imbalanced datasets that ranges between 0 and 1. We evaluate the performance of our neural network on a variety of ELMs in different high confinement regimes (grassy ELM, RMP mitigated, and wide-pedestal), finding broad applicability. Beyond ELMs, our work demonstrates the wider feasibility of applying neural networks to data from DBS diagnostic.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Exploring Causes of Beam Loss at CEBAF

At Jefferson Lab, the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator (CEBAF) features a unique design with two linear accelerators and two arc sections allowing for multiple turns of the electron beam, as well as four experimental end stations. This topology leads to increased beam losses, especially in the spreader and recombiner regions connecting the arcs to the linacs and in the extraction regions connecting the experimental end stations to the accelerator. These losses result in equipment activation and operational interruptions. Recent upgrades to the facility’s diagnostic systems, including the addition of xenon ion chambers, have provided higher-resolution data regarding these loss events. Building on this improved observational capability, we are developing a simulation framework using optics codes and the Geant4-based BDSIM to model beam extinction and halo formation in these regions. This work aims to correlate simulation results with experimental data to isolate the causes of beam loss and inform future machine tuning strategies. We present a summary of conclusions drawn from recent operational studies and outline a plan to model the beam loss and validate the simulations.

Matthews, C. [Old Dominion Univ., Norfolk, VA (Uni↗

Optimizing Hydronic Heating for Comfort and Performance in Multifamily Housing

Inefficient control settings in multifamily boilers often lead to substantial energy and cost penalties. To address this, a Fault Detection and Diagnostic (FDD) tool was developed to automate data analysis and identify operational faults such as suboptimal outdoor temperature sensor placement, misconfigured outdoor air reset (OAR) curves, excess boiler cycling, and domestic hot water (DHW) setpoint errors. By comparing pre- and post-implementation periods and applying engineering models, the tool quantifies energy savings and reduces manual analysis time by over 90%. Testing on over 100 monitored sites and a targeted subset of 12 buildings showed an average 11% energy savings from remote optimization; further validation across 19 OAR curve changes confirmed the tool’s accuracy, predicting actual savings within ±5% for most cases. Simple payback can be under three years for many multifamily buildings, though rising hardware, labor, and fuel costs create uncertainties, and decarbonization goals increasingly shift focus to electrification. The FDD tool remains invaluable for optimizing existing boilers, enhancing future electrification measures, and adapting to new technologies by refining building load estimates. In doing so, it supports both near-term efficiency and long-term transitions to low-carbon alternatives, ensuring buildings achieve substantial cost and energy benefits throughout their system lifecycles.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Using Explainable Artificial Intelligence to Predict Perovskite Solar Cell Electrical Metastability from Operando Photoluminescence Images in Accelerated Stress Testing

Metal halide perovskite (MHP) solar cells exhibit a metastable response to bias governed by coupled ionic–electronic processes, complicating the conventional reciprocity relation between luminescence intensity and device open-circuit voltage (V oc ). This limits the use of luminescence as a diagnostic for device screening or accelerated stress testing, motivating new approaches that can interpret photoluminescence (PL) signals under nonequilibrium conditions. From the artificial intelligence perspective, we develop an explainable deep learning framework that integrates convolutional neural networks (CNN), long short-term memory (LSTM) layers, and an attention mechanism to learn spatiotemporal features from operando photoluminescence PL image sequences. The model achieves a mean absolute error of ±0.027 V in predicting open-circuit voltage transients and reduces extreme-tail errors by up to 78% compared to physics-based reciprocity calculations. Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping (Grad-CAM) provides interpretability by highlighting physically meaningful regions such as electrode edges and emergent defect features. From the engineering application perspective, this framework enables accurate, contactless prediction of device V oc and identification of degradation-relevant features during accelerated aging of perovskite solar cells. This approach demonstrates how explainable AI can enhance operando diagnostics and reliability analysis in photovoltaic devices under nonequilibrium conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Standard model physics and the digital quantum revolution: thoughts about the interface

Advances in isolating, controlling and entangling quantum systems are transforming what was once a curious feature of quantum mechanics into a vehicle for disruptive scientific and technological progress. Pursuing the vision articulated by Feynman, a concerted effort across many areas of research and development is introducing prototypical digital quantum devices into the computing ecosystem available to domain scientists. Through interactions with these early quantum devices, the abstract vision of exploring classically-intractable quantum systems is evolving toward becoming a tangible reality. Beyond catalyzing these technological advances, entanglement is enabling parallel progress as a diagnostic for quantum correlations and as an organizational tool, both guiding improved understanding of quantum many-body systems and quantum field theories defining and emerging from the standard model. Here, from the perspective of three domain science theorists, this article compiles thoughts about the interface on entanglement, complexity, and quantum simulation in an effort to contextualize recent NISQ-era progress with the scientific objectives of nuclear and high-energy physics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Dealing with Measurement Uncertainties as Nuisance Parameters in Bayesian Model Calibration

In the presence of model discrepancy, the calibration of physics-based models for physical parameter inference is a challenging problem. Lack of identifiability between calibration parameters and model discrepancy requires additional identifiability constraints to be placed on the model discrepancy to obtain unique physical parameter estimates. If these assumptions are violated, the inference for the calibration parameters can be systematically biased. In many applications, such as in dynamic material property experiments, many of the calibration inputs refer to measurement uncertainties. Here, we develop a metric for identifying overfitting of these measurement uncertainties, propose a prior capable of reducing this overfitting, and show how this leads to a diagnostic tool for validation of physical parameter inference. The approach is demonstrated for a benchmark example and applied for a material property application to perform inference on the equation of state parameters of tantalum.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Classification and computation of extreme events in turbulent combustion

In the design of practical combustion systems, ensuring safety and reliability is an important requirement. For instance, reliably avoiding lean blowout, flame flashback or inlet unstart is critical for ensuring safe operation. Currently, the science of predicting such events is based on prior experience, limited modeling or diagnostic tools and purely statistical approaches. Even though computational and experimental tools for studying combustion devices have vastly advanced in the last three decades, the analysis of such failure events has not been pursued widely. While the use of data for model development and calibration is being widely accepted, the extension to failure events introduces numerous challenges. In particular, the focus here is on so-called data-poor problems, where the cost of generating data is extremely high and is not easily amenable to existing computational and experimental approaches. Data-poor problems are particularly relevant when related to extreme events (also called anomalous events) that can lead to catastrophic failure of the system. It is argued that transient events that describe such failure can have different causal mechanisms. To develop the scientific inference process, a classification of such problems is used to determine specific modeling paths as well as computational tools needed. Research opportunities in the emerging field of extreme event prediction are highlighted in order to identify critical and immediate needs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An experimental and computational study of thin-layer Rayleigh–Taylor instability development during deceleration with and without an externally applied magnetic field

The importance of mitigating the Rayleigh–Taylor instability (RTI) in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) is critical to successfully achieve high gain fusion yield. Consequently, understanding the seed mechanisms of RTI and the potential evolution of RTI in ICF relevant conditions is crucial. Single feature perturbations consistently demonstrate non-linear RTI evolution, for which an experimental platform on OMEGA-EP is developed. Manufacturing defects introduced into the target design require exploration of unanticipated changes to RTI development and an identification of targets that will still render quantifiable physics results. Consequently, it is presented that the inherent 3D nature of experimental targets necessitates 3D modeling for accurate design work and predictive modeling of experimental targets, especially when high resolution imaging diagnostics, like Fresnel Zone Plates, are utilized. A study of the morphology of the RTI evolution due to changing initial conditions and the presence of an externally applied magnetic field are also explored. Experimental data show thin-layer RTI morphology comparable to resistive magneto hydrodynamic 3D results. A discussion on the impacts of an externally applied magnetic field makes the case for continued efforts to observe a magnetic field's impact on RTI morphology.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) Activity for Continental Shallow Convection

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility recently initiated the Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) activity focused on shallow convection at ARM’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory in Oklahoma. LASSO is designed to overcome an oft-shared difficulty of bridging the gap from point-based measurements to scales relevant for model parameterization development, and it provides an approach to add value to observations through modeling. LASSO is envisioned to be useful to modelers, theoreticians, and observationalists needing information relevant to cloud processes. LASSO does so by combining a suite of observations, LES inputs and outputs, diagnostics, and skill scores into data bundles that are freely available, and by simplifying user access to the data to speed scientific inquiry. The combination of relevant observations with observationally constrained LES output provides detail that gives context to the observations by showing physically consistent connections between processes based on the simulated state. A unique approach for LASSO is the generation of a library of cases for days with shallow convection combined with an ensemble of LES for each case. The library enables researchers to move beyond the single-case-study approach typical of LES research. The ensemble members are produced using a selection of different large-scale forcing sources and spatial scales. Since large-scale forcing is one of the most uncertain aspects of generating the LES, the ensemble informs users about potential uncertainty for each date and increases the probability of having an accurate forcing for each case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SoRcer Test Utqiagvik Deployment for Ionograms (STUDI) Field Campaign Report

The U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) has developed a passive broadband radio frequency (RF) receiver, called a Sounder Receiver (SoRcer), as an ionospheric diagnostic instrument. These systems can produce ionospheric specifications to characterize the local ionosphere. The specifications from the SoRcers can then be used to inform data assimilation models; monitor diurnal, seasonal, or other cyclical changes; and detect irregularities or abnormalities in the ionosphere, such as traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs), sporadic E, and spread F.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparing Global Spray Combustion Characteristics and Local Shot-to-Shot Variations in a Reacting n -Heptane Spray

In support of efforts to develop improved models of turbulent spray behavior and combustion in diesel engines, experimental data and analysis must be obtained for guidance and validation. For Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS)-based Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling approaches, representative ensemble average experimental results are important. For high-fidelity models such as large eddy simulations (LES)-based CFD, precise individual experimental results are desirable. However, making comparisons between a given experiment and LES is a challenge since local parameters cannot be directly compared. In this work, an optically accessible constant pressure flow rig (CPFR) is utilized to acquire diesel-like fuel injection and reaction behavior simultaneously with three optical diagnostic techniques: rainbow Schlieren deflectometry (RSD), OH* chemiluminescence (OH*), and two-color pyrometry (2CP). The CPFR allows a large number of repeated injection experiments to be performed for statistical analysis and convergence using ensemble-averaging techniques, while maintaining highly repeatable test conditions. Even for stable test conditions, variations in local turbulent fuel–air mixing introduce variability, which manifests as significant differences in OH* and 2CP results. Experimental measurements of characteristic parameters including liquid and vapor jet penetration, liftoff length, soot temperature and concentration, and turbulent flame speed, along with the shot-to-shot variability of each dataset, are presented and discussed. Finally, a statistical method is utilized to analyze the extent of this variability, and to identify superlative injections within the dataset for discussion and analysis of shot-to-shot variations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Real-Time Health Monitoring for Gas Turbine Components Using Online Learning and High-Dimensional Data

Capital-intensive turbomachinery, such as gas turbines and combined cycle plants, are constantly being monitored for performance anomalies, faults, and physical degradation. Although these power-generating assets are equipped with hundreds of sensors, existing monitoring tools can only handle moderate-sized data. As a result, only a handful of aggregate metrics are used to monitor machine health. At the same time, developing advanced tools suitable for large datasets have been restricted by the lack of appropriate data. The objective of this proposal was to demonstrate a Big Data analytics framework for fault detection and diagnosis in gas turbine applications. We develop a predictive analytics framework methodology guided by these experimental data, industrial data from our collaborators, and physics-based models with engineering domain knowledge. Our analytics framework consists of four key components (1) a data curation process that addresses data storage, data quality assessments, and integrity checks, (2) a feature engineering component that utilizes statistical methods and transformation algorithms guided by physics-based models to extract high-fidelity fault features that can be leveraged for fault detection and classifying fault severities, (3) a Machine Learning-based fault detection and diagnostics algorithms for detecting operational and hardware faults in the combustion and the turbines section. We utilize two industry-class gas turbine component test rigs to generate first of its kind data for critical gas turbine faults with varying severity levels. Advanced gas turbine test facilities will be interrogated using state-of-the-art instrumentation techniques to build fault signatures and data trends for key combustor and turbine faults. Data generated from a combustor test rig (Georgia Tech) and a turbine test rig (Penn State) during both normal operation and with seeded faults serve as the basis for the Big Data sets. The test conditions in the two test facilities include common, critical events that occur in the operation. Utilizing the combustor test rig, we examine two common combustor faults: lean blowout and centerbody degradation. For the turbine section we develop analytic models for monitoring cooling faults in the gas turbine

03 NATURAL GAS↗