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At least 235 records · Page 13

The Role of Internal Variability in Springtime Arctic Amplification from 1980 to 2022

Arctic amplification (AA) refers to the enhanced warming of the Arctic relative to the global average due to rising greenhouse gases, measured as the ratio of Arctic-mean to global-mean surface air temperature (SAT) trends. From 1980 to 2022, annual-mean AA reached 4.2 (Arctic defined as north of 70°N). Climate models simulate AA but fail to reproduce its magnitude. Sweeney et al. attributed much of this model–observation discrepancy to internal variability. AA shows seasonality and so does the discrepancy. Spring (March–May) shows the largest gap: Observed AA is 4.2, while the multimodel mean is 2.7. This raises several questions: 1) What role does internal variability play in observed spring AA? 2) How does simulated spring AA compare to observations when internal variability is removed? 3) If internal variability is significant, what mechanisms drive it? To address these, we adapted the machine learning algorithm from Sweeney et al., training on simulated multidecadal spring SAT and sea level pressure (SLP) trend maps. Our results show that internal variability enhanced spring Arctic warming by 37% and reduced global warming by 10%. Removing internal variability reconciles the spring AA discrepancy. The estimated internal contribution to Arctic spring warming is supported by an independent dynamical adjustment approach. We identify an atmospheric circulation pattern in observations associated with this internal warming. Observed internal Siberian SAT and SLP trends follow the simulated SAT–SLP relationship but lie at the distribution’s extreme, suggesting models generally underestimate internal variability unless the observed configuration reflects a rare real-world realization.

Arctic↗

Procedures for analysis of spatial relationships among ship survey data and sea surface temperature

The establishment of a limited spatial data base for the U.S. eastern seaboard vicinity is discussed along with the demonstration of computer assisted analysis techniques for investigating spatial patterns and relationships among ship survey data and remotely sensed sea surface temperature. Ship survey variables included concentrations of two zooplankton, two icthyoplankton, and two fish species, in addition to physical data of depth to bottom and surface and bottom water temperatures. Continuous spatial distributions of these data were created by both weighted nearest neighbor and iterative smoothing interpolation techniques. Maps of surface water temperature were created by digitizing GOES satellite images. All mapped data were spatially registered by conversion of latitude and longitude coordinates to rotated Lambert conic conformal rectilinear coordinates and stored in grid format of approximately one hundred square kilometers per cell. The analysis of these data include the generation of statistical summaries and maps describing the joint occurrence among variables.

Berry, J. K.↗

Intercomparison of Satellite-Derived Snow-Cover Maps

In anticipation of the launch of the Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra, and the PM-1 spacecraft in 1999 and 2000, respectively, efforts are ongoing to determine errors of satellite-derived snow-cover maps. EOS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-E (AMSR-E) snow-cover products will be produced. For this study we compare snow maps covering the same study area acquired from different sensors using different snow- mapping algorithms. Four locations are studied: 1) southern Saskatchewan; 2) a part of New England (New Hampshire, Vermont and Massachusetts) and eastern New York; 3) central Idaho and western Montana; and 4) parts of North and South Dakota. Snow maps were produced using a prototype MODIS snow-mapping algorithm used on Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) scenes of each study area at 30-m and when the TM data were degraded to 1 -km resolution. National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC) 1 -km resolution snow maps were also used, as were snow maps derived from 1/2 deg. x 1/2 deg. resolution Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/1) data. A land-cover map derived from the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) land-cover map of North America was also registered to the scenes. The TM, NOHRSC and SSM/I snow maps, and land-cover maps were compared digitally. In most cases, TM-derived maps show less snow cover than the NOHRSC and SSM/I maps because areas of incomplete snow cover in forests (e.g., tree canopies, branches and trunks) are seen in the TM data, but not in the coarser-resolution maps. The snow maps generally agree with respect to the spatial variability of the snow cover. The 30-m resolution TM data provide the most accurate snow maps, and are thus used as the baseline for comparison with the other maps. Comparisons show that the percent change in amount of snow cover relative to the 3 0-m resolution TM maps is lowest using the TM I -km resolution maps, ranging from 0 to 40%. The highest percent change (less than 100%) is found in the New England study area, probably due to the presence of patchy snow cover. A scene with patchy snow cover is more difficult to map accurately than is a scene with a well-defined snowline such as is found on the North and South Dakota scene where the percent change ranged from 0 to 40%. There are also some important differences in the amount of snow mapped using the two different SSM/I algorithms because they utilize different channels.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗

Variability in total ozone associated with baroclinic waves

One-point regression maps of total ozone formed by regressing the time series of bandpass-filtered geopotential height data have been analyzed against Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer data. Results obtained reveal a strong signature of baroclinic waves in the ozone variability. The regressed patterns are found to be similar in extent and behavior to the relative vorticity patterns reported by Lim and Wallace (1991).

Mote, Philip W.↗

Exploring the role of biotic factors in regulating the spatial variability in land surface phenology across four temperate forest sites

Here, land surface phenology (LSP), the characterization of plant phenology with satellite data, is essential for understanding the effects of climate change on ecosystem functions. Considerable LSP variation is observed within local landscapes, and the role of biotic factors in regulating such variation remains underexplored. In this study, we selected four National Ecological Observatory Network terrestrial sites with minor topographic relief to investigate how biotic factors regulate intra-site LSP variability. We utilized plant functional type (PFT) maps, functional traits, and LSP data to assess the explanatory power of biotic factors for the start and end of season (SOS and EOS) variability. Our results indicate that PFTs alone explain only 0.8–23.4% of intra-site SOS and EOS variation, whereas including functional traits significantly improves explanatory power, with cross-validation correlations ranging from 0.50 to 0.85. While functional traits exhibited diverse effects on SOS and EOS across different sites, traits related to competitive ability and productivity were important for explaining both SOS and EOS variation at these sites. These findings reveal that plants exhibit diverse phenological responses to comparable environmental conditions, and functional traits significantly contribute to intra-site LSP variability, highlighting the importance of intrinsic biotic properties in regulating plant phenology.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Peru Health and Air Quality II: Leveraging Earth Observations and Health Data to Map Outbreak Risk and Inform Public Health Interventions for Zoonotic Disease Prevention

Peru's Madre de Dios region is a hotspot for dengue fever and leishmaniasis due to its tropical Amazonian climate. Though treatable, these zoonotic diseases are debilitating for under-resourced communities whose already close proximity to mosquito and sandfly vectors continues to increase via rapid urbanization and deforestation. Peru’s Ministries of Health (MINSA) and Environment (MINAM) are working to better understand the environmental factors amplifying the risk of dengue fever and leishmaniasis transmission. The first term of this project classified the land use and land cover of Madre de Dios’ 11 districts for 2010, 2015, and 2020 and identified a correlation between both diseases and urbanization. Our team expanded this analysis by creating urban-forest edge maps and incorporating climatic and topographic variables with data from Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). We determined these variables’ impacts on disease incidence by assessing existing literature and running regression models. Dengue fever correlated with urban-forest edge, urban area, slope, temperature, and precipitation. Leishmaniasis primarily correlated with forest-edge area and elevation, but lacking additional statistical significance prevented further work, a decision supported by the literature. Thus, the risk matrix and risk map which we scripted in R to visualize the risk of disease posed to districts alongside health post locations addresses only dengue fever. The results and products will inform MINSA and MINAM in public health interventions, resource distribution, and policy initiatives.

Jennifer Rogers↗

Mapping foliar photosynthetic capacity in sub-tropical and tropical forests with UAS-based imaging spectroscopy: Scaling from leaf to canopy

Accurate understanding of the variability in foliar physiological traits across landscapes is critical to improve parameterization and evaluation of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) that seek to represent the response of terrestrial ecosystems to a changing climate. Numerous studies suggest imaging spectroscopy can characterize foliar biochemical and morphological traits at the canopy scale, but there is only limited evidence for retrieving canopy photosynthetic capacity (e.g., maximum carboxylation rate, V c,max and maximum electron transport rate, J max ). Moreover, the effect of canopy structure within forest communities on scaling up spectra-trait relationships from leaf to canopy level is not well known. To advance the spectra-trait approach and enable the estimation of key traits using remote sensing, we collected imaging spectroscopy data from an Unoccupied Aerial System (UAS) platform over two forest sites in China (a subtropical forest in Mt. Dinghu and a tropical rainforest in Xishuangbanna). At these sites, we also collected ground measurements of leaf spectra and traits, including biochemical (leaf nitrogen, phosphorus, chlorophyll, and water content), morphological (leaf mass per area, LMA) and physiological (V c,max25 and J max25 ) traits (n=135 tree-crowns from 42 species across two sites). Using a partial least-squares regression (PLSR) approach, we built and tested spectra-trait models with repeated cross-validation. The spectral models developed with leaf spectra were directly transferred to canopy spectra to evaluate the effect of canopy structure. Here we further applied canopy spectral models to map these traits at individual tree-crown scale. The results demonstrate that (1) UAS-based canopy spectra can be used to estimate V c,max (R 2 =0.55, nRMSE=11.79%), Jmax (R 2 =0.54, nRMSE=12.34%), and five additional foliar traits (R 2 =0.38-0.60, nRMSE=10.11-13.56%) at the tree-crown scale with demonstrated generalizability across two sites; (2) canopy structure strongly affects the spectratrait relationships from leaf to canopy level, but the effects vary considerably across foliar traits and cannot be well captured by the 4SAIL canopy radiative transfer model. UAS-based imaging spectroscopy maps large variability in all foliar traits (including physiological traits) with spatially explicit information, reproducing the field-observed inter- and intra-specific variations. These results demonstrate the capability of using UAS-based imaging spectroscopy for characterizing the variability of foliar physiological traits at individual tree-crown scale over forest landscapes and highlight the similar generalizability but different biophysical mechanisms underlying spectra-trait relationships at leaf and canopy levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Forest aboveground biomass estimation through integration of sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 time series: assessing models trained on GEDI and field inventory benchmarks

Accurate and spatially explicit forest Aboveground Biomass (AGB) mapping through remote sensing is critical for quantifying terrestrial carbon stocks and informing effective forest management strategies. However, AGB estimation in dense forests with complex terrain remains challenging due to satellite sensor signal saturation problem (saturation issue occurs in high biomass forests), structural complexity, and limited ground truth for calibration. This study presents a novel framework that integrates multi-temporal Sentinel-2 optical imagery, ALOS PALSAR-2 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, and topographic variables with explainable Machine Learning to map AGB across mountainous forests within subtropical and temperate oceanic climate zones of Mexico. We evaluate the effects of temporal granularity and sensor synergy by comparing multiple temporal inputs and sensor configurations (Sentinel-2, PALSAR-2, and their fusion), and assess model performance using two reference datasets: NASA GEDI LiDAR-derived biomass and Mexico’s National Forest and Soil Inventory (INFyS). Our results showed that models trained on INFyS consistently outperformed those trained on GEDI, highlighting limitations in GEDI’s reliability in biomass estimates within this study region. Furthermore, the integration of Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 provided improved predictions compared to single-sensor models, particularly when combined with temporally explicit yearly statistics. The best-performing model, which was trained on INFyS data, and considered both Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 yearly statistics, as well as topographic variables, achieved an R2 of 0.64, RMSE of 51.10 Mg/ha, and relative RMSE (rRMSE) of 58.69%. Explainable ML analysis identified Sentinel-2 spectral indices and topographic features as key predictors, while PALSAR-2 metrics provided complementary information, partially mitigating saturation effects in high-biomass areas. Specifically, integrating both sensors substantially improved AGB estimation in high biomass forest (≥200 Mg/ha), yielding 98% gains over optical-only model, with resulting estimates exceeding GEDI L4B by 29% and ESA-CCI-BIOMASS by 174%. Terrain-stratified analysis indicated close agreement with GEDI in low-slope areas, with increasing divergence as slope steepness increased, while estimates remained consistently higher than ESA-CCI-BIOMASS across all slope classes. The proposed approach advances multi-sensor fusion and temporal feature engineering for AGB mapping using open-access satellite datasets, providing a scalable and reproducible framework for annual biomass monitoring in topographically complex mountainous forests. The resulting 25 m resolution biomass product has the potential to provide spatially detailed information for forest monitoring and may support applications in carbon accounting and forest management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Northern Great Plains Disasters: Using Earth Observations to Enhance Flood Monitoring on Tribal Lands in the Northern Great Plains

In 2019, the Great Plains experienced unprecedented catastrophic flooding. Large flood events are predicted to increase in frequency and severity, posing risks to communities in this region, particularly Tribal Nations. We used data from Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR), imagery from the Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI), and digital elevation models (DEMs) from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) within Google Earth Engine to map historical floods in the region beginning in 2014 with particular attention to the Rosebud Sioux Reservation and the tribal lands of other Great Plains Tribal Water Alliance members. This historical mapping used C-SAR for a combined method approach with a Z-score algorithm in addition to an index for flooded short vegetation. We also developed a flood risk map by weighting different flood predictor variables according to flood risk literature. These variables included soil drainage from the Soil Survey Geographic Database (SSURGO); elevation, slope, and Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) derived from digital elevation models; precipitation from Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS); land cover from the National Land Cover Database (NLDC); and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI). From the flood extent and risk maps, we identified widespread flooding in short vegetation (including cropland) and noted flood susceptibility in regions exhibiting high social vulnerability and low community resilience (FEMA indices). We created an ArcGIS Online StoryMap to share project background, results, and data. Additionally, we provided a written tutorial so partners may replicate the flood mapping for future flood events.

Anna Ballasiotes↗

Contributions of major tau kinase activation and phospho-tau accumulation to cortical and hippocampal tangle formation and cognition in older adults

Aberrant activation of tau kinases (tauK) has been proposed as a major step in tau hyperphosphorylation and misfolding, and subsequent formation of neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) in Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, evidence of tauK hyperactivation in actual AD brains is scarce and inconsistent, and their role in age-related cognitive decline remains undocumented. We evaluated activated/inhibited species of CDK5/p35/p25, GSK3a/ß, and ERK1/2 as well as ten tau/phospho-tau (ptau) peptides (mapping Ser 202 , Thr 217 , Ser 262 , Ser 305 , and Ser 404 phospho-residues) by Western blot or selected reaction monitoring proteomics, respectively, in postmortem dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) and hippocampal samples of 150 participants from the Rush Memory and Aging Project (MAP). Regression models and mediation analyses assessed the contributions of these variables to tau phosphorylation, NFT deposition and antemortem cognitive status of MAP participants. Surprisingly, greater p25 and p35 (indices for CDK5 activation) and lower pSer 21/9 -GSK3a/ß (inhibited species) immunodensities were associated with lower ptau peptide amounts. Individuals with higher p25 cortical densities displayed better cognitive outcomes, particularly working memory. Statistical mediation analyses indicated that the beneficial effect of CDK5/p25 on cognition was mediated by lower densities of phospho-Thr 217 -tau and NFT deposition in DLPFC, and also identified Thr 217 and Ser 262 as the ptau sites with greatest influence in both NFT accumulation and cognitive impairment. The present data suggest that tau hyperphosphorylation, tangle deposition, and the subsequent cognitive impairment do not rely on aberrant activation of major tauKs. Additionally, novel evidence was provided for the beneficial contribution of cortical CDK5/p25 to the maintenance of working memory.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Resource utilization model for the algorithm to architecture mapping model

The analytical model for resource utilization and the variable node time and conditional node model for the enhanced ATAMM model for a real-time data flow architecture are presented in this research. The Algorithm To Architecture Mapping Model, ATAMM, is a Petri net based graph theoretic model developed at Old Dominion University, and is capable of modeling the execution of large-grained algorithms on a real-time data flow architecture. Using the resource utilization model, the resource envelope may be obtained directly from a given graph and, consequently, the maximum number of required resources may be evaluated. The node timing diagram for one iteration period may be obtained using the analytical resource envelope. The variable node time model, which describes the change in resource requirement for the execution of an algorithm under node time variation, is useful to expand the applicability of the ATAMM model to heterogeneous architectures. The model also describes a method of detecting the presence of resource limited mode and its subsequent prevention. Graphs with conditional nodes are shown to be reduced to equivalent graphs with time varying nodes and, subsequently, may be analyzed using the variable node time model to determine resource requirements. Case studies are performed on three graphs for the illustration of applicability of the analytical theories.

Stoughton, John W.↗

Map synchronization in optical communication systems

The time synchronization problem in an optical communication system is approached as a problem of estimating the arrival time (delay variable) of a known transmitted field. Maximum aposteriori (MAP) estimation procedures are used to generate optimal estimators, with emphasis placed on their interpretation as a practical system device, Estimation variances are used to aid in the design of the transmitter signals for best synchronization. Extension is made to systems that perform separate acquisition and tracking operations during synchronization. The closely allied problem of maintaining timing during pulse position modulation is also considered. The results have obvious application to optical radar and ranging systems, as well as the time synchronization problem.

Gagliardi, R. M.↗

Global Qualitative Flow-Path Modeling for Local State Determination in Simulation and Analysis

For qualitative modeling and analysis, a general qualitative abstraction of power transmission variables (flow and effort) for elements of flow paths includes information on resistance, net flow, permissible directions of flow, and qualitative potential is discussed. Each type of component model has flow-related variables and an associated internal flow map, connected into an overall flow network of the system. For storage devices, the implicit power transfer to the environment is represented by "virtual" circuits that include an environmental junction. A heterogeneous aggregation method simplifies the path structure. A method determines global flow-path changes during dynamic simulation and analysis, and identifies corresponding local flow state changes that are effects of global configuration changes. Flow-path determination is triggered by any change in a flow-related device variable in a simulation or analysis. Components (path elements) that may be affected are identified, and flow-related attributes favoring flow in the two possible directions are collected for each of them. Next, flow-related attributes are determined for each affected path element, based on possibly conflicting indications of flow direction. Spurious qualitative ambiguities are minimized by using relative magnitudes and permissible directions of flow, and by favoring flow sources over effort sources when comparing flow tendencies. The results are output to local flow states of affected components.

Malin, Jane T.↗

AI-Batt (Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models) [SWR 21-36]

Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models (AI-Batt) AI-Batt is a MATLAB code base for developing lifetime models for batteries from accelerated aging data. The code base provides many functions for processing, visualizing, and modeling battery aging data, making the data processing, exploration, and modeling workflow substantially faster. These tools are tailored for working with battery aging data sets, which usually consist of many separate time-series for each cell, with many test conditions and possible replicates at each condition, which makes it difficult to simply process or visualize the data set. Complex modeling tasks, such as cross-validation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification have been implemented to enable thorough statistical investigation of model predictions. Additionally, several machine-learning algorithms are implemented to autonomously identify suitable models via symbolic regression. Data processing functions automatically cast data from the struct data type, which is commonly used to store experimental data, but is not an acceptable input for most algorithms, to the table data type, which can be easily used as input to any optimization algorithm. Also, the data can be separated into time-invariant and time-variant data tables, which is helpful for exploring the data set as well as developing separate models for time-variant and time-invariant aging mechanisms. For example, in aging tests with constant temperature, temperature is a time-invariant experimental condition. Visualization tools enable plotting of data, model fits, and model simulations possible with single-line function calls, empowering data exploration of complex data sets with both time-varying and time-invariant trends. Plots can be automatically generated for the whole data set, or separated by data group (groups of test replicates) or individual data series. Data points or data series can be automatically colored by the value of a variable with a variety of color maps, and model predictions can also be colored by the value of a fit statistic. Comparisons between data sets and the predictions/simulations of different models on the same data set can be easily plotted as well. Distributions of parameter values from bootstrap resampling can be plotted to visualize the reliability of parameter estimation, or determine any correlations between parameters. Modeling tools handle the complex task of creating and parsing symbolic equations for modeling battery lifetime. Equations are parsed to grab relevant data variables, parameter values, or specified sub-models for input into optimization, evaluation, or simulation functions. Models can be optimized locally (one set of parameters for each data series), bi-level (some parameters shared across the data set), or globally (single set of parameters for all data). Functions implementing symbolic regression algorithms help users to discover effective model equations, even in poorly sampled, high-dimensional data.

Smith, Kandler↗

An astrometric study of the Mira variable R Leonis and the occultation binary 19 Leonis

The Multichannel Astrometric Photometer (MAP) was used to determine parallaxes of stars in the region centered on the Mira variable R Leonis. R Leonis, with a parallax of 8.3 +/- 1.0 mas (120 +/- 15 pc), is significantly closer than most recent estimates. At visual wavelengths, its mean physical diameter is 612 +/- 96 times that of the sun. The photocentric motion of R Leonis is not suggestive of either optical or orbital companions, excluding possible secondary components over a wide range of magnitudes as well as orbital periods of up to approximately one decade. Nineteen Leonis, an occultation-speckle binary with a well-determined orbit and a reference star in the R Leonis field, has a distance of 92.6 +/- 12 pc. The 15.2 yr period binary exhibits a slight perturbation during the 4 yr of MAP observations. The similar primary and secondary of this A7 Vn system are 2.41 +/- 0.96 and 2.31 +/- 0.92 solar masses, respectively.

Gatewood, George↗

Results of phase change paint thermal mapping test OH46 using the 0.006-scale model 90-0 in the NASA LaRC variable density tunnel

Results of a test conducted in the NASA LaRC Mach 8 variable density tunnel to obtain thermal contours on a 0.006 scale model of the configuration 140B Space Shuttle Orbiter are presented using the phase change paint technique. The model was tested at 25 deg, 30 deg, and 35 deg angle of attack at unit Reynolds numbers ranging from 1.0 through 8.0 million per foot. The model was tested with and without a ventral fin mounted on its bottom centerline. Elevon deflections of 0 deg and 10 deg and bodyflap deflections of 0 and 13.75 deg were investigated.

Cummings, J. W.↗

Eigenvector analysis of some observed and model-generated Climatological fields

An empirical orthogonal function analysis of monthly mean synoptic fields computed with a general circulation model and the corresponding observed climatological patterns is presented. A computer program was used to compute the principal components of the data matrices representing global maps of various observed and model-generated climatological fields. The variables analyzed were: 500mb geopotential height, 850 mb temperature, and sea level pressure. It is concluded that eigenvector analysis of observed and model-generated synoptic climatological fields is a useful diagnostic aid in the evaluation of global model simulation. The maps of any climatological variables are readily decomposed into a few orthogonal components which account for a large fraction of the total spatial variance, and the observed and model-generated patterns may then be compared in terms of these principal components of the original data matrices.

Dennis, M.↗

Geologic Mapping of the Lunar South Pole Quadrangle (LQ-30)

In this study we use recent image, spectral and topographic data to map the geology of the lunar South Pole quadrangle (LQ-30) at 1:2.5M scale [1-7]. The overall objective of this research is to constrain the geologic evolution of LQ-30 (60 -90 S, 0 - 180 ) with specific emphasis on evaluation of a) the regional effects of impact basin formation, and b) the spatial distribution of ejecta, in particular resulting from formation of the South Pole-Aitken (SPA) basin and other large basins. Key scientific objectives include: 1) Determining the geologic history of LQ-30 and examining the spatial and temporal variability of geologic processes within the map area. 2) Constraining the distribution of impact-generated materials, and determining the timing and effects of major basin-forming impacts on crustal structure and stratigraphy in the map area. And 3) assessing the distribution of potential resources (e.g., H, Fe, Th) and their relationships with surface materials.

Mest, S. C.↗