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At least 235 records · Page 13

Space Shuttle Debris Impact Tool Assessment Using the Modern Design of Experiments

Complex computer codes are used to estimate thermal and structural reentry loads on the Shuttle Orbiter induced by ice and foam debris impact during ascent. Such debris can create cavities in the Shuttle Thermal Protection System. The sizes and shapes of these cavities are approximated to accommodate a code limitation that requires simple "shoebox" geometries to describe the cavities -- rectangular areas and planar walls that are at constant angles with respect to vertical. These approximations induce uncertainty in the code results. The Modern Design of Experiments (MDOE) has recently been applied to develop a series of resource-minimal computational experiments designed to generate low-order polynomial graduating functions to approximate the more complex underlying codes. These polynomial functions were then used to propagate cavity geometry errors to estimate the uncertainty they induce in the reentry load calculations performed by the underlying code. This paper describes a methodological study focused on evaluating the application of MDOE to future operational codes in a rapid and low-cost way to assess the effects of cavity geometry uncertainty.

DeLoach, Richard↗

Advanced probabilistic method of development

Advanced structural reliability methods are utilized on the Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) project to provide a tool for analysis and design of space propulsion system hardware. The role of the effort at the University of Arizona is to provide reliability technology support to this project. PSAM computer programs will provide a design tool for analyzing uncertainty associated with thermal and mechanical loading, material behavior, geometry, and the analysis methods used. Specifically, reliability methods are employed to perform sensitivity analyses, to establish the distribution of a critical response variable (e.g., stress, deflection), to perform reliability assessment, and ultimately to produce a design which will minimize cost and/or weight. Uncertainties in the design factors of space propulsion hardware are described by probability models constructed using statistical analysis of data. Statistical methods are employed to produce a probability model, i.e., a statistical synthesis or summary of each design variable in a format suitable for reliability analysis and ultimately, design decisions.

Wirsching, P. H.↗

Mock Truss-Braced Wing Loads Calibration Research Utilizing Fiber-Optic Sensors

In support of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Advanced Air Transonic Transport Truss-Braced Wing structural research, the Armstrong Flight Research Center Flight Loads Laboratory is performing pathfinder tests on a small, scaled test article (dubbed the mock Truss-Braced Wing) to study the application of a loads calibration on a truss-braced wing structure. The addition of a truss to the wing structure, as opposed to a purely cantilever beam setup, changes the strain-gage-based loads calibration techniques. In a truss-braced configuration, the internal shear and moments, inboard of the truss-wing connection, are not directly representative of the external aerodynamic loading as is the case for a traditional cantilever configuration. A 3-axis load cell was used at the wing-to-strut interface to estimate the load sharing between the two structural members. Crosstalk within the 3-axis load cell is added to the measurement uncertainties of the calibration effort, and the results, including crosstalk uncertainties, are presented. The calibration tests presented in this report are used as a pathfinder for developing an understanding how to perform loads calibration on a truss-braced wing structural configuration. The use of distributed fiber-optic strain sensors is leveraged to provide a near-full-span strain profile along the leading and trailing edge of the wing structure for strain-based loads calibration.

Francisco Peña↗

An Iterative Response-Surface-Based Approach for Chance-Constrained AC Optimal Power Flow Considering Dependent Uncertainty

A modern power system is characterized by a stochastic variation of the loads and an increasing penetration of renewable energy generation, which results in large uncertainties in its states. These uncertainties bring formidable challenges to the power system planning and operation process. To address these challenges, we propose a cost-effective, iterative response-surface-based approach for the chance-constrained AC optimal power-flow problem that aims to ensure the secure operation of the power systems considering dependent uncertainties. Starting from a stochastic-sampling-based framework, we first utilize the copula theory to simulate the dependence among multivariate uncertain inputs. Then, to reduce the prohibitive computational time required in the traditional Monte-Carlo method, we propose, instead of using the original complicated power-system model, to rely on a polynomial-chaos-based response surface. This response surface allows us to efficiently evaluate the time-consuming power-system model at arbitrary distributed sampled values with a negligible computational cost. This further enables us to efficiently conduct an online stochastic testing for the system states that not only screens out the statistical active constraints, but also assists in a better design of the tightened bounds without using any Gaussian or symmetric assumption. Finally, an iterative procedure is executed to fine-tune the optimal solution that better satisfies a predefined probability. The simulations conducted in multiple test systems demonstrate the excellent performance of the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Explicit Dynamic Impact Analysis of the Building 3525 Packages

This report describes the methodology used for the safety basis analysis of the Building (Bldg.) 3525 casks and presents preliminary results for a selected geometry. The specific problem analyzed is a free fall load case onto an unyielding target at various orientations. The various orientations were analyzed to ensure that the packages were subjected to the orientation that causes the most damage. The analysis approach, material modeling, finite element modeling, and results for the selected case are presented, along with a brief discussion of conservatism and uncertainties. The results for the analyzed load cases show that through selected administrative controls, no breach of the container or loss of shielding will occur in the package.

42 ENGINEERING↗

An Efficient Deterministic Approach to Model-based Prediction Uncertainty Estimation

Prognostics deals with the prediction of the end of life (EOL) of a system. EOL is a random variable, due to the presence of process noise and uncertainty in the future inputs to the system. Prognostics algorithm must account for this inherent uncertainty. In addition, these algorithms never know exactly the state of the system at the desired time of prediction, or the exact model describing the future evolution of the system, accumulating additional uncertainty into the predicted EOL. Prediction algorithms that do not account for these sources of uncertainty are misrepresenting the EOL and can lead to poor decisions based on their results. In this paper, we explore the impact of uncertainty in the prediction problem. We develop a general model-based prediction algorithm that incorporates these sources of uncertainty, and propose a novel approach to efficiently handle uncertainty in the future input trajectories of a system by using the unscented transformation. Using this approach, we are not only able to reduce the computational load but also estimate the bounds of uncertainty in a deterministic manner, which can be useful to consider during decision-making. Using a lithium-ion battery as a case study, we perform several simulation-based experiments to explore these issues, and validate the overall approach using experimental data from a battery testbed.

Daigle, Matthew J.↗

OC6 Phase III: Validation of Wind Turbine Aerodynamic Loading During Surge/Pitch Motion

The objective of Phase III of the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continued, with Correlation and unCertainty (OC6) project was to validate the accuracy of aerodynamic load predictions by offshore wind modeling tools for a floating offshore wind turbine as it experiences large surge-translational and pitch-rotational motion, as would occur during normal operation. The test data considered were generated at Politecnico di Milano – a wind tunnel with a robotic excitation system to emulate wave loading on the wind turbine. Testing was performed using a scaled version of the DTU 10-MW reference model, and motion was prescribed as harmonic oscillations in the surge and pitch directions, independently. A variety of models were examined in the project, performing a three-way validation between engineering-level tools, higher-fidelity tools, and measurement data from two wind tunnel experimental campaigns. The Load Cases (LC) considered in this testing are as follows: LC 1.X - Steady Wind LC 2.X - Unsteady Wind - Surge Motion LC 3.X - Unsteady Wind - Pitch Motion Details on the results of the OC6 Phase III campaign can be found in the following reference: Bergua R., et al. OC6 project Phase III: validation of the aerodynamic loading on a wind turbine rotor undergoing large motion caused by a floating support structure, Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 465–485, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-465-2023, 2023.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

James Webb Space Telescope Integrated Science Instrument Module Thermal Vacuum Thermal Balance Test Campaign at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center

The James Webb Space Telescope is a large infrared telescope with a 6.5-meter primary mirror, designed as a successor to the Hubble Space Telescope when launched in 2018. Three of the four science instruments contained within the Integrated Science Instrument Module (ISIM) are passively cooled to their operational temperature range of 36K to 40K with radiators, and the fourth instrument is actively cooled to its operational temperature of approximately 6K. Thermal-vacuum testing of the flight science instruments at the ISIM element level has taken place in three separate highly challenging and extremely complex thermal tests within a gaseous helium-cooled shroud inside Goddard Space Flight Centers Space Environment Simulator. Special data acquisition software was developed for these tests to monitor over 1700 flight and test sensor measurements, track over 50 gradients, component rates, and temperature limits in real time against defined constraints and limitations, and guide the complex transition from ambient to final cryogenic temperatures and back. This extremely flexible system has proven highly successful in safeguarding the nearly $2B science payload during the 3.5-month-long thermal tests. Heat flow measurement instrumentation, or Q-meters, were also specially developed for these tests. These devices provide thermal boundaries o the flight hardware while measuring instrument heat loads up to 600 mW with an estimated uncertainty of 2 mW in test, enabling accurate thermal model correlation, hardware design validation, and workmanship verification. The high accuracy heat load measurements provided first evidence of a potentially serious hardware design issue that was subsequently corrected. This paper provides an overview of the ISIM-level thermal-vacuum tests and thermal objectives; explains the thermal test configuration and thermal balances; describes special measurement instrumentation and monitoring and control software; presents key test thermal results; lists problems encountered during testing and lessons learned.

JWST ISIM Thermal↗

Oversizing and Part-Load Problems

Oversizing, the common engineering practice of specifying devices with capacity exceeding the actual load requirement, is a widespread practice across virtually all building technologies end-use categories, including HVAC, electrical systems, lighting, appliances, and plug loads. This practice, driven by factors like design uncertainty, institutional pressures, and risk aversion, results in wasted capital investment, control difficulties, and excessive energy consumption due to inefficient part-load operation. Part-load operation, where devices run below maximum capacity, is the dominant operating mode in most energy systems and presents a complex design challenge. Solutions to match output to load fall into three broad categories: constraining the output, adjusting the device’s internal behavior, and linking output to energy storage or other waste-heat reuse applications. The energy implications of part-load are critical, as efficiency often drops sharply as load decreases across a wide diversity of devices. To quantify the extent of this problem, we derive a dimensionless Part-Load Metric (PLM) based on device efficiency and its frequency distribution of operating hours at various output levels. The PLM quantifies the deviation of a device's actual efficiency from its maximum design efficiency. This metric also serves as a measure of "capital inefficiency," enabling engineers to compare the impact of different part-load solutions and providing a unified framework for evaluating performance across various devices and systems.

Meier, Alan↗

Secondary Organic Aerosol from OH Oxidation of Acyclic Terpenes Is More Viscous and Less Volatile than That of Their Cyclic Analogs

Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), a dominant source of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) globally, exhibit emission rates and composition that are plant species-specific and vary with environmental stressors. A common outcome of plant stress is increased emissions of acyclic terpenes. The paucity of information about acyclic terpene SOA chemistry contributes to uncertainties in predictions of SOA global loadings and impacts on Earth’s radiative budget, particularly in a changing climate where acyclic terpene emissions could become more prominent. This study compared properties of SOA derived from OH oxidation of acyclic and cyclic monoterpenes (ß-ocimene, a-pinene) and sesquiterpenes (ß-farnesene, ß-caryophyllene). Single particle mass spectrometry was used for assessing shape, density, and evaporation kinetics of size-selected SOA particles, and nanospray desorption electrospray ionization high-resolution mass spectrometry (nano-DESI-HRMS) was used to measure molecular composition of SOA. Acyclic terpene SOA exhibited higher viscosity and lower volatility compared to cyclic terpene SOA, and had a greater volume fraction remaining (VFR) after ~24 hours of evaporation - approximately 1.3-1.6 times higher VFR than that of cyclic terpene SOA. Additionally, HRMS analysis revealed greater chemical diversity and higher fractions of extremely low volatility compounds (56-62% ELVOC/LVOC) in acyclic terpene SOA compared to cyclic counterparts (25-37% ELVOC/LVOC). Our findings highlight the potential importance of accounting for acyclic terpene aerosol chemistry under conditions of plant stress to improve predictions of SOA loadings and impacts.

SOA physical properties↗

Allocation and Operation of A Hydropneumatic Energy Storage with Building Microgrid

Behind-meter application for a recently invented hydropneumatic Ground-Level Integrated Diverse Energy Storage (GLIDES) is focused in this research. Considering possible uncertainties from solar radiation and electricity load in a building microgrid, two-stage stochastic programming is adopted for 15-min operation and a mixed-integer nonlinear stochastic model is built with integrated energy systems of GLIDES, solar panel and power generating unit. In order to make the model computationally tractable, we use sample average approximate method to decrease associated complexity with sample size and improve solving efficiency. The experimental results in deterministic and stochastic operation indicate that best candidate solution from SAA are superior to the solution from expected value problem in terms of optimality gap and variance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Event-Driven Predictive Approach for Real-Time Volt/VAR control with CVR in solar PV rich Active Distribution Network

The focus of this paper is on analyzing the impact of conservation voltage reduction in the presence of active devices such as solar photovoltaic (PV) and developing controls that leverage these distributed energy resources. An event-driven predictive approach for real-time volt/volt-ampere reactive (VAR) optimization, along with local two-level adaptive volt/VAR droop-based control algorithm for advanced distribution management systems, is introduced. The methodology covers aggregated and autonomous controls under different timescale operations, including the impact and effect of unpredicted events such as cloud transients on PV power production. In addition, the control schemes include the uncertainties in PV power generation and load power demand. The proposed methodology is validated in a real-time framework using the real-time digital simulator platform through co-simulation with models based on Python and OpenDSS (Open Distribution System Simulator). The developed methodology is tested on the modified IEEE 123-feeder test system. The results reveal that the proposed methodology works well in the presence of high penetrations of PV power, produces significant energy savings, and mitigates over-/undervoltage problems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Summer Proceedings 2019

The Computer Science Research Institute (CSRI) brings university faculty and students to Sandia for focused collaborative research on Department of Energy (DOE) computer and computational science problems. The institute provides an opportunity for university researchers to learn about problems in computer and computational science at DOE laboratories. Participants conduct leading-edge research, interact with scientists and engineers at the laboratories, and help transfer results of their research to programs at the labs. Some specific CSRI research interest areas are: scalable solvers, optimization, adaptivity and mesh refinement, graph-based, discrete, and combinatorial algorithms, uncertainty estimation, mesh generation, dynamic load-balancing, virus and other malicious-code defense, visualization, scalable cluster computers and heterogeneous computers, data-intensive computing, environments for scalable computing, parallel input/output, advanced architectures, and theoretical computer science. The CSRI Summer Program includes the organization of a weekly seminar series and the publication of this summer proceedings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

CSRI Summer Proceedings 2020

The Computer Science Research Institute (CSRI) brings university faculty and students to Sandia for focused collaborative research on Department of Energy (DOE) computer and computational science problems. The institute provides an opportunity for university researchers to learn about problems in computer and computational science at DOE laboratories. Participants conduct leading-edge research, interact with scientists and engineers at the laboratories, and help transfer results of their research to programs at the labs. Some specific CSRI research interest areas are: scalable solvers, optimization, adaptivity and mesh refinement, graph-based, discrete, and combinatorial algorithms, uncertainty estimation, mesh generation, dynamic load-balancing, virus and other malicious-code defense, visualization, scalable cluster computers, data-intensive computing, environments for scalable computing, parallel input/output, advanced architectures, and theoretical computer science. The CSRI Summer Program is organized by CSRI and typically includes the organization of a weekly seminar series and the publication of a summer proceedings. In 2020, the CSRI summer program was executed completely virtually; all student interns worked from home, due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Managing Solar Photovoltaic Integration in the Western United States: Power System Flexibility Requirements and Supply

As penetrations of variable renewable energy generation technologies such as wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) continue to increase across the United States, greater uncertainty and variability in the net load often lead to a concern about how power systems may adapt. Managing the system net load (i.e., load minus contribution from variable generation technologies) may become more challenging with increasing variable generation, as the magnitude and frequency of net ramps increase. However, there is inherent flexibility in power systems through the conventional generator fleet (under least-cost unit commitment and economic dispatch), less-conventional generation sources (e.g., storage, demand response, concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage), and imports and exports with neighbors. In this analysis, we create an open-source tool to analyze the flexibility of the results of a specific commercial unit commitment and economic dispatch tool (PLEXOS), but the code can be applied generically as well. The tool assesses the flexibility requirements (or demand) of a system through a net load analysis. The constraints and limitations of each generator are then considered to determine the availability (or supply) of flexibility. Then, the supply and demand of flexibility are compared to gain a more complete picture of potential flexibility concerns. We apply this open-source tool to high-penetration PV scenarios constructed for three focus regions in the western United States defined using the Resource Planning Model (RPM) capacity expansion modeling tool: RPM-OR, RPM-CO, and RPM-AZ. Generally, we find few flexibility concerns, as the western United States represents a large and interconnected power system with significant inherent flexibility. In addition, the PV scenarios we analyzed are overbuilt on capacity, leaving plenty of ramping ability on the system. We do find that for each focus region, the impact of imports on meeting ramping needs is essential. This means the PV integration in each focus region impacts the entire rest of the system. Each system has different dominant sources of flexibility. The conventional generator fleet (especially coal and gas combined-cycle technologies) as well as less-conventional sources such as storage are all shown to be important sources of flexibility. The scenarios evaluated here were designed to study the planning and operations impact of high solar penetration in each of three focus regions. However, none of the three focus regions likely will deploy PV in isolation, meaning the ability of imports and exports to provide flexibility may be considerably different in scenarios with strong PV deployment in every region. Overall, we intend that the framework we present here will be useful in future analysis of other system evolutions to identify whether and how flexibility may constrain the successful deployment of variable generation technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Modeling Toolkit for Comparing AC and DC Electrical Distribution Efficiency in Buildings

Recently, there has been considerable research interest in the potential for DC distribution systems in buildings instead of the traditional AC distribution systems. Due to the need for performing power conversions between DC and AC electricity, DC distribution may provide electrical efficiency advantages in some systems. To support comparative evaluations of AC-only, DC-only, and hybrid AC/DC distribution systems in buildings, a new modeling toolkit called the Building Electrical Efficiency Analysis Model (BEEAM) was developed and is described in this paper. To account for harmonics in currents or voltages arising from nonlinear devices, the toolkit implements harmonic power flow, along with nonlinear device behavioral descriptions derived from empirical measurements. This paper describes the framework, network equations, device representations, and an implementation of the toolkit in an open source software package, including a component library and graphical interface for creating circuits. Simulations of electrical behavior and device and system efficiencies using the toolkit are compared with experimental measurements of a small office environment in a variety of operating and load configurations. A detailed analysis of uncertainty estimation is also provided. Key findings were that a comparison of predicted versus measured efficiencies and power losses in the validation testbed using the initial toolkit implementation predicted device- and system-level efficiencies with reasonably good accuracy under both balanced and unbalanced AC scenarios. An uncertainty analysis also revealed that the maximum estimated error for system efficiency across all scenarios was 3%, and measured and modeled system efficiency agreed within the experimental uncertainty in approximately half of the scenarios. Based on the correspondence between simulation and measurement, the toolkit is proposed by the authors as a potentially useful tool for comparing efficiency in AC, DC, and hybrid AC/DC distribution systems in buildings.

DC distribution↗

Numerical aerodynamic simulation of the space shuttle ascent environment

After the STS 51-L accident, an extensive review of the Space Shuttle Orbiter's ascent aerodynamic loads uncovered several questionable areas that required further analysis. The insight gained by comparing the Shuttle ascent CFD numerical simulations, obtained by the NASA Ames Space Shuttle Flow Simulation Group, to the current IVBC-3 aerodynamic loads database was instrumental in resolving uncertainties on the Orbiter payload bay doors and fuselage. Initial confidence in the numerical simulations was gained by comparing them with the limited flight data that had been obtained during the Orbiter Flight Test (OFT) program. Current CFD results exist for Mach numbers 0.6, 0.9, 1.05, 1.55, 2.0, and 2.5. Since the pre STS-1 wind tunnel test program (IA-105) often yields considerable differences when compared to STS-5 flight data, the M(sub infinity) = 1.05 transonic case is the most investigated. The IA308 mated-vehicle hot gas plume wind tunnel test, recently completed at AEDC 16T (transonic) and Lewis (hypersonic), is also used to compare with the computation where applicable.

Slotnick, Jeff P.↗