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DOE OSTI2025

EV Stock and Load Forecasting for HECO [Slides]

This presentation covers the work completed for the HECO Forecasting Department for the Electric Vehicle Stock and Load Forecast for Integrated Grid Planning project. This project uses a suite of detailed analytical tools developed by the National Laboratory of the Rockies, including TEMPO and EVI-Pro, to develop future scenarios to 2050 of county-level electric vehicle adoption and associated annual hourly charging load profiles for the state of Hawaii.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Numerical Investigation of the Effect of Trailing Edge Thickness of Simulated CMC Blades on Loss Profiles

To understand such an aerodynamic characteristic of the CMC blades, we numerically simulated three different CMC blades with varying trailing edge thicknesses. We utilized both Large Eddy simulation (LES) with the dynamic subgrid closure as well a recently implemented Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) coupled with an intermittency function-based transition model. We considered two sets of experimental test points with different Reynolds numbers at a given high-free stream turbulence range (Tu=~10-13%). The LES was previously validated by comparing with experimental data. We validated the RANS transition model against the ERCOFTAC experimental zero-pressure gradient smooth flat plate boundary layer at low- and high freestream turbulence offered by the experimental data of the Stripf’s for a turbine blade. We confirmed that the predicted skin friction and the heat flux agree well with the data. Finally, we computed the predicted pressure loading profiles, total loss distributions, and integrated loss of the three different CMC blades and made comparisons against the experimental data acquired at NASA Glenn Transonic Turbine Blade Cascade Rig. Our paper will present the aforementioned results and discuss the ability of LES and RANS model of our choice to predict salient aerodynamic characteristics of the blades with the various trailing edge thickness effects.

LES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Numerical Investigation of the Effect of Trailing Edge Thickness of Simulated CMC Blades on Loss Profiles

LES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Geothermal District Heating System on Flexibility of Microgrid in Tuttle, Oklahoma: Preprint

Flexibility is the capability of the power grid to maintain a balance between electricity generation and variable demand. This study presents preliminary results evaluating the impact of geothermal district heating systems on the flexibility of a conceptual microgrid in Tuttle, Oklahoma. Heating demand profiles were modeled using EnergyPlus for the district that includes two schools and 250 single-family houses. Then, geothermal energy production was modeled using GEOPHIRES to estimate how much heating demand in the district can be supplied by five different geothermal system scenarios. The results indicated that geothermal energy production varied depending on the resource temperature at different depths, system configurations, and flow rates. For the grid flexibility analysis, electricity consumptions in the five geothermal systems were estimated for pump operations to circulate water from the wells to radiators, while electricity consumption by air-source heat pump in the base case was estimated to supply the same heating load. Electricity consumption in the geothermal systems was significantly lower than those in base cases. The electricity saved by the geothermal system was then incorporated into the microgrid electrical load profiles where variable renewable electricity generation is significantly high. The results visually showed that geothermal district heating system can improve grid flexibility as a baseload during the winter season. The results also highlighted potential opportunities to save energy costs that will be further analyzed in future study.

Cambium↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Geothermal District Heating System on Flexibility of Microgrid in Tuttle, Oklahoma

Flexibility is the capability of the power grid to maintain a balance between electricity generation and variable demand. This study presents preliminary results evaluating the impact of geothermal district heating systems on the flexibility of microgrid in Tuttle, Oklahoma. Heating demand profiles were modeled using EnergyPlus for the district that includes two schools and 250 single-family houses. Then, geothermal energy production was modeled using GEOPHIRES to estimate how much heating demand in the district can be supplied by five different geothermal system scenarios. The results indicated that geothermal energy production varied depending on the resource temperature at different depths, system configurations, and flow rates. For the grid flexibility analysis, electricity consumptions in the five geothermal systems were estimated for pump operations to circulate water from the wells to radiators, while electricity consumption by air-source heat pump in the base case was estimated to supply the same heating load. Electricity consumption in the geothermal systems was significantly lower than those in base cases. The electricity saved by the geothermal system was then incorporated into the microgrid electrical load profiles where variable renewable electricity generation is significantly high. The results visually showed that geothermal district heating system can improve grid flexibility as a baseload during the winter season. The results also highlighted potential opportunities to save energy costs that will be further analyzed in future study.

Cambium↗

DOE OSTI2022

OPF-Learn: An Open-Source Framework for Creating Representative AC Optimal Power Flow Datasets: Preprint

Increasing levels of renewable generation motivate a growing interest in data-driven approaches for AC optimal power flow (AC OPF) to manage uncertainty. However, a lack of disciplined dataset creation and benchmarking prohibits useful comparison between approaches in the literature. To instigate confidence, models must be able to reliably predict solutions across a wide range of operating conditions. This paper develops the OPF-Learn package for Julia and Python which uses a computationally efficient approach to create representative datasets that span a wide spectrum of the AC OPF feasible region. Load profiles are uniformly sampled from a convex set that contains the AC OPF feasible set. For each infeasible point found, the convex set is reduced using infeasibility certificates, found by utilizing properties of a relaxed formulation. The framework is shown to generate datasets which are more representative of the entire feasible space versus traditional techniques seen in the literature, improving machine learning model performance.

dataset↗

DOE OSTI2020

Performance Assessments of Demand Flexibility from Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings: Issues and Considerations

This SEE Action Network report explains basic concepts and fundamental considerations for assessing the actual demand flexibility performance of buildings participating in demand flexibility programs and responding to time-varying retail rates. Demand flexibility is the capability of distributed energy resources (DERs) to adjust a building’s load profile across different timescales. Assessments determine the timing, location, quantity, and quality of grid services provided. The results can be used for financial settlements and to improve performance of demand flexibility, support its consideration in resource potential studies and electricity system planning, and contribute to cost-effectiveness evaluations. While practitioners and regulators regularly find opportunities to improve performance assessments of demand-related services, to a large degree current best practices are sufficient for basic service offerings as demand flexibility is implemented today. However, advances in assessment practices will be required in a future with grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) that provide continuous demand flexibility by integrating multiple DERs and flexibility modes (load shed, load shift, modulate, and generate). Example practices include using new baseline constructs—including whether baselines are even required for certain building flexibility modes or configurations, deploying more advanced metering and analytics, further developing cybersecurity standards, improving communication standards for increased interoperability, and establishing performance metrics and assessment procedures for load modulation as it is more fully defined and implemented. This report provides information on prioritizing and designing performance assessment elements for demand flexibility programs and time-varying retail rates, assessment protocols, and research and development needs. Additional research sponsored by DOE’s Building Technologies Office offers more detailed technical information on assessing performance of demand flexibility, including definition of performance metrics.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

EXERGETIC: De-Risking Next-Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via At-Scale Evaluation Using Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation

The DOE-GTO-funded project, award number 5.1.2.12, entitled "EXERGETIC - De-risking Next Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via at-Scale Evaluation Using a Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation," advances the solution to these challenges by developing and validating a geothermal co-emulation environment implemented at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR)'s Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) platform. This framework enables the de-risking of next-generation geothermal and geothermal hybrid systems through high-fidelity modeling, real-time digital emulation, advanced control strategies, and techno-economic assessment. The project focused on geothermal hybrid configurations that integrate geothermal power plants with concentrated solar power and underground thermal energy storage, enabling enhanced efficiency, flexibility, and grid support capabilities. The main goal of this project was the development of a geothermal digital co-emulation environment to demonstrate the technical and economic value of geothermal hybrid systems and their contribution to grid stability and flexibility. The EXERGETIC framework combined physics-based models, controls, and real assets at ARIES, including digital real-time simulators (DRTS), a 20-MW-scale controllable grid interface (CGI), and a 2-MW conventional generator. Detailed transient models were developed for the key subsystems of a hybrid geothermal plant, including parabolic trough solar collectors, reservoir thermal energy storage (RTES), and a binary Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) power plant. The ORC model explicitly captured thermal inertia and off-design operation and integrated control strategies to dynamically respond to electric load profiles. The models were validated against published experimental and numerical studies, demonstrating strong agreement and confirming the accuracy and robustness of the modeling approach. The resulting digital twin represents geothermal-solar-storage systems at multiple scales (1 MW to 100 MW) and enables realistic emulation of grid-connected operation. The control architecture allows the geothermal resource to provide stable baseload generation, while solar and stored thermal energy supply flexible, dispatchable support during periods of high demand or variable grid conditions. A key contribution of the EXERGETIC project is the demonstration that geothermal hybrid systems can be designed to be active grid assets rather than passive baseload generators. Using the ARIES platform, the digital twin was evaluated under multiple grid scenarios, including load following, voltage support at the distribution level, and frequency response at the transmission level. Results show that hybrid geothermal systems can respond effectively to dynamic grid conditions, providing inertia-like behavior, primary frequency support, and voltage regulation through coordinated control. In addition to the performance and grid services capability analysis of geothermal and hybrid geothermal systems, the EXERGETIC project also focused on scalability and techno-economic analysis of geothermal hybrid plants. In particular, for the scalability analysis, machine-learning (ML)-based surrogate models were trained using data generated from the geothermal digital twin under different grid-connected scenarios and plant capacities. These ML models demonstrated strong interpolation and extrapolation capabilities across plant sizes, accurately reproducing both steady-state and transient responses with very low errors. Regarding the techno-economic analysis, plant performance results were integrated with cost models for hybrid geothermal systems, and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) was used as the main economic metric to evaluate system performance across a range of system capacities, solar shares, solar multiples, and storage durations. Results indicate that economies of scale significantly reduce geothermal LCOE as plant capacity increases, with large-scale systems (25-100 MW) achieving substantially lower costs than small plants. Hybridization with solar thermal energy and storage further improves economic performance by increasing capacity utilization and enabling flexible dispatch. In addition, thermal storage plays a critical role in reducing LCOE by maximizing geothermal, solar, and stored energy resources. In summary, the results from this project demonstrate that geothermal hybrid systems represent a promising alternative for increasing the energy conversion efficiency of geothermal technologies, contributing to the preservation of geothermal resources, and supporting the transition of geothermal plants from traditional baseload resources into flexible, resilient, and cost-competitive energy conversion technologies.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Measurement Adequacy for Monitoring Data Center Oscillations

Artificial intelligence (AI) training data centers with periodic load profiles can induce sustained grid oscillations across a wide frequency range, making accurate monitoring essential for reliable power system operation. This report evaluates the adequacy of existing measurement systems for monitoring such oscillations, focusing on phasor measurement units (PMUs) and point-on-wave (POW) measurement systems. The analysis shows that while PMUs are highly effective for monitoring low-frequency electromechanical oscillations, they have inherent limitations in accurately representing higher-frequency oscillations due to constraints imposed by reporting rates and the bandwidth of phasor estimation filters. Even when configured with higher reporting rates, the filtering inherent in the phasor estimation process can significantly attenuate oscillation magnitudes, potentially leading to underestimation of oscillatory behavior. This has important implications for compliance and performance monitoring of large loads. To address the limitations associated with PMU-based monitoring, the report examines the use of high-resolution POW measurements, which can capture oscillations across a broader frequency range. However, continuous POW monitoring introduces practical challenges related to large data volumes, communication bandwidth, and real-time data processing. For this reason, the report also discusses emerging approaches that use POW measurements as a complementary capability alongside PMUs to improve observability of oscillations from large data center loads.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Data-Driven Customer Segmentation Strategy Based on Contribution to System Peak Demand

Not provided.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2021

What are the Impacts on the HVAC System when it Provides Frequency Regulation? – A Comprehensive Case Study with a Multi-Zone Variable Air Volume (VAV) System

Heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems in commercial buildings have proven to be a great asset for providing secondary frequency regulation (FR) service to the power grid. However, how the provision of FR service affects the HVAC system Quality of Service (QOS) is still largely unknown. In particular, there exists a controversy regarding the energy efficiency impact. This paper investigates how a HVAC system performance and its associated controls are impacted during and after the FR service. For the assessment, we developed a dynamic Modelica-based medium office building model as a virtual testbed with the Air Handling Unit (AHU) fans providing the FR service. Different regulation capacities (demand levels) and standard test signals under various load profiles in the U.S. are considered. The results show that FR has little or no impact on the HVAC operation and occupant thermal comfort while the building is providing the service if an appropriate regulation capacity is pre-determined. However, if the regulation capacity is overestimated, the quality of the FR service provided by the HVAC system and the HVAC energy efficiency will be affected due to the equipment operating constraints. In addition, the AHU supply air temperature fluctuates, and the controller cannot maintain the desired setpoint as the FR magnitude is increased. After the FR service time, the system takes a certain period to return to normal operation. The recovery period extends with the increase in the FR magnitude. For this case study, there exists a control conflict between the FR control and the existing HVAC control (from ASHRAE Guideline 36-2018) during high load conditions, causing the fan speed to saturate. The fan power consumption could increase significantly; up to 77% increase compared to the baseline was observed. This case study demonstrates that the HVAC system controls need to be enhanced and adapted to minimize the interaction between the FR controller and the indoor environmental controls in order to preserve the HVAC system QOS while (during and after) providing satisfactory FR service.

Lu, Xing↗

DOE OSTI2025

Techno-Economic Analysis for the Addition of a Thermal Energy Storage System to a Central Plant

Increasing energy demand and rising peak loads present significant challenges for energy management in commercial and institutional settings. As climate change drives greater cooling needs, central plants must navigate the complex tradeoffs between operational efficiency, cost control, and grid stability. Thermal energy storage (TES) systems offer a viable solution by shifting energy consumption from peak to off-peak periods, thereby reducing peak demand, lowering utility expenses, and improving grid resilience. However, the success of TES implementation hinges on appropriate system sizing, effective control strategies, and alignment with local utility rate structures. This article presents a techno-economic analysis of integrating a chilled water TES system into the central plant at California State University, Dominguez Hills. Drawing on historical load profiles and utility tariffs, we assess three TES sizing approaches and their corresponding control strategies from both energy and economic perspectives. This article utilizes a model-based approach to assess the impact of TES sizing and control strategies on the techno-economic feasibility of integrating TES into an existing central plant. The models employed for this analysis were calibrated using 4 years of historical data. Here, the results demonstrated that utility tariffs and the campus's operational profiles dictate the most feasible sizing and control methods. The findings offer valuable insights for institutions and commercial building managers exploring sustainable energy solutions. By demonstrating how optimized TES strategies can improve operational efficiency while achieving financial savings, this study highlights the potential for TES to align performance with cost effectiveness in real-world applications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Battery Electrolyte Design for Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL) Platforms

Here, the development of robust and high-performance battery systems is crucial for the advancement of Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL) vehicles for urban air mobility. This study evaluates the performance of different lithium-ion battery chemistries under Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL) load profiles. The actual flight data coupled with physical models is used to create discharge profiles for testing on developed lithium-ion cells for eVTOLs. The performance of a standard liquid electrolyte (1.2 M LiPF 6 in EC:EMC), labeled Gen-2, is benchmarked and compared with a fast-charging electrolyte (1.2 M LiFSI in EC:EMC), labeled XFC. Cell analysis involves the use of various techniques, such as impedance spectroscopy, polarization curves, and capacity retention measurements. Capacity retention is stable for both systems over 500 cycles, but unique discharge capacity trends are observed for different mission segments. During the initial takeoff hover stages, Gen-2 electrolytes experience substantial voltage fade, while XFC electrolytes maintain consistent behavior. In general, the Gen-2 electrolyte demonstrated lower discharge overpotentials and higher decay during cycling compared to the XFC electrolyte. This work highlights the complexity of eVTOL battery behavior and provides insights into battery system design, contributing to the advancement of battery energy storage solutions for urban air mobility.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Renewable electricity capacity planning with uncertainty at multiple scales

Abstract We formulate and compare optimization models of investment in renewable generation using a suite of social planning models that compute optimal generation capacity investments for a hydro-dominated electricity system where inflow uncertainty results in a risk of energy shortage. The models optimize the expected cost of capacity expansion and operation allowing for investments in hydro, geothermal, solar, wind, and thermal plant, as well as battery storage for smoothing load profiles. A novel feature is the integration of uncertain seasonal hydroelectric energy supply and short-term variability in renewable supply in a two-stage stochastic programming framework. The models are applied to data from the New Zealand electricity system and used to estimate the costs of moving to a 100% renewable electricity system by 2035. We also explore the outcomes obtained when applying different forms of CO 2 constraint that limit respectively non-renewable capacity, non-renewable generation, and CO 2 emissions on average, almost surely, or in a chance-constrained setting, and show how our models can be used to investigate the merits of a proposed pumped-hydro scheme in New Zealand’s South Island.

Ferris, Michael C.↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Siamese CNN + KNN-Based Classification Framework for Non-intrusive Load Monitoring

Through the development of smart grids, programs such as demand side response, have been presented as auxiliary services to the real-time operation of distributed networks. In order to provide consumers information on their energy consumption, so that a modulation in consumption is possible, non-intrusive load monitoring has been introduced as an solution to this pattern recognition problem. Non-intrusive load monitoring enables the modeling of electrical loads connected to the low-voltage system, considering only a single measurement point. Presented state-of-the-art solutions though, consider availability of data as well as representation of all possible classes of the environment. This is of course a most conservative hypothesis, since in real-life applications availability of such data is much difficult, as well as the dynamic behavior of models is implicitly evolving in time. Here, a framework that uses neural Siamese networks with k-nearest neighbor clustering is presented toward non-intrusive load monitoring. Online learning feature is implemented, which relaxes the hypothesis of data requirements as well addresses the evolving nature of load profile. k-nearest clustering allows nonlinear characteristic space modelling. Test results using synthetics and real-life data show that the solution, besides obtaining a good generalizability in the classification, also obtained results with an accuracy of 95.77%.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Molecular Dynamics Simulation of Pore-Size Effects on Gas Adsorption Kinetics in Zeolites

Strong gas-mineral interactions or slow adsorption kinetics require a molecular-level understanding of both adsorption and diffusion for these interactions to be properly described in transport models. In this combined molecular simulation and experimental study, noble gas adsorption and mobility is investigated in two naturally abundant zeolites whose pores are similar in size (clinoptilolite) and greater than (mordenite) the gas diameters. Simulated adsorption isotherms obtained from grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations indicate that both zeolites can accommodate even the largest gas (Rn). However, gas mobility in clinoptilolite is significantly hindered at pore-limiting window sites, as seen from molecular dynamics simulations in both bulk and slab zeolite models. Further, experimental gas adsorption isotherms for clinoptilolite confirm the presence of a kinetic barrier to Xe uptake, resulting in the unusual property of reverse Kr/Xe selectivity. Finally, a kinetic model is used to fit the simulated gas loading profiles, allowing a comparison of trends in gas diffusivity in the zeolite pores.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic simulation of occupant-driven energy use in a bottom-up residential building stock model

The residential buildings sector is one of the largest electricity consumers worldwide and contributes disproportionally to peak electricity demand in many regions. Strongly driven by occupant activities, household energy consumption is stochastic and heterogeneous in nature. However, most residential energy models applied by industry use homogeneous, deterministic activity schedules, which work well for predictions of annual energy consumption, but can result in unrealistic hourly or sub-hourly electric load profiles, with exaggerated or muted peaks. The increasing proportion of variable renewable energy generators means that representing the heterogeneity and stochasticity of occupant behavior is now crucial for reliable planning at both bulk-power and distribution-system scales. This work presents a novel and open-source occupancy simulation approach that can simulate a diverse set of individual occupant and household event schedules for all major electricity, fuel, and hot water end uses. To accomplish this, we evaluated three alternative occupant activity simulation approaches before selecting a hybrid combining time-inhomogeneous Markov chains and probability-sampling of event durations and magnitudes. Further, we integrated the stochastic occupancy simulation with an open-source bottom-up physics-simulation building stock model and published a set of 550,000 diverse household end-use activity schedules representing a national housing stock. The simulator was verified against time-use survey data, and simulation results were validated against measured end-use electricity data for accuracy and reliability. While we use data for the United States, our application demonstrates how similar approaches could be applied using the time-use survey data collected in many countries around the world.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Technical, economic, and load-following capabilities assessment of grid-connected geothermal and geothermal-solar hybrid systems

The technical and economic performance as well as the load-following capabilities of grid-connected geothermal hybrid systems were assessed in this work. The analyzed geothermal hybrid configuration is composed of a binary geothermal plant integrated with a concentrating solar-thermal system and underground thermal energy storage (UTES) through a primary heat exchanger. Physics-based models for the hybrid system for plant generation capacities of 1, 25, and 50 MW were developed from validated models for each subsystem. Also, an economic model was developed that accounts for different hybrid system capabilities, solar field sizes, and thermal storage duration. The advantage of the geothermal hybrid system was assessed by comparing the performance with the baseline benchmark geothermal plant with a similar configuration and generation capacity. It was found that hybridizing geothermal plants with concentrating solar and thermal energy storage not only improves the thermal efficiency by up to 8 percentage points when additional heat from the solar-UTES loop rises the evaporator temperatures from 70 to 125 °C, but also enhances the load-following capability for the geothermal plant, which can meet a typical residential load profile with a power rate of change 0.25 kW/s with an absolute error under 13 kW for a 1 MW plant. Other benefits of hybridization include resource preservation and a potential LCOE reduction of up to 56% for a 50 MW geothermal hybrid plant having a 50% solar share, a 1.4 solar multiple, and 24-h storage capacity. The results presented in this work demonstrate that hybridizing geothermal systems transforms them into a flexible and cost-effective solution for addressing the dynamic requirements of modern electric grids.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗