Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “likelihood function”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Pervasive alterations to snow-dominated ecosystem functions under climate change

Climate change projections consistently demonstrate that warming temperatures and dwindling seasonal snowpack will elicit cascading effects on ecosystem function and water resource availability. Despite this consensus, little is known about potential changes in the variability of ecohydrological conditions, which is also required to inform climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. Considering potential changes in ecohydrological variability is critical to evaluating the emergence of trends, assessing the likelihood of extreme events such as floods and droughts, and identifying when tipping points may be reached that fundamentally alter ecohydrological function. Using a single-model Large Ensemble with sophisticated terrestrial ecosystem representation, we characterize projected changes in the mean state and variability of ecohydrological processes in historically snow-dominated regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Widespread snowpack reductions, earlier snowmelt timing, longer growing seasons, drier soils, and increased fire risk are projected for this century under a high-emissions scenario. In addition to these changes in the mean state, increased variability in winter snowmelt will increase growing-season water deficits and increase the stochasticity of runoff. Thus, with warming, declining snowpack loses its dependable buffering capacity so that runoff quantity and timing more closely reflect the episodic characteristics of precipitation. This results in a declining predictability of annual runoff from maximum snow water equivalent, which has critical implications for ecosystem stress and water resource management. So our results suggest that there is a strong likelihood of pervasive alterations to ecohydrological function that may be expected with climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1999

Distant Massive Clusters and Cosmology

We present a status report of our X-ray study and analysis of a complete sample of distant (z=0.5-0.8), X-ray luminous clusters of galaxies. We have obtained ASCA and ROSAT observations of the five brightest Extended Medium Sensitivity (EMSS) clusters with z > 0.5. We have constructed an observed temperature function for these clusters, and measured iron abundances for all of these clusters. We have developed an analytic expression for the behavior of the mass-temperature relation in a low-density universe. We use this mass-temperature relation together with a Press-Schechter-based model to derive the expected temperature function for different values of Omega-M. We combine this analysis with the observed temperature functions at redshifts from 0 - 0.8 to derive maximum likelihood estimates for the value of Omega-M. We report preliminary results of this analysis.

Donahue, Megan↗
DOE OSTI2021

Orbits and Masses of Binaries from Speckle Interferometry at SOAR

We present results from Speckle inteferometric observations of 15 visual binaries and one double-line spectroscopic binary, carried out with the HRCam Speckle camera of the SOAR 4.1 m telescope. These systems were observed as a part of an on-going survey to characterize the binary population in the solar vicinity, out to a distance of 250 pc. We obtained orbital elements and mass sums for our sample of visual binaries. The orbits were computed using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm that delivers maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters, as well as posterior probability density functions that allow us to evaluate their uncertainty. Their periods cover a range from 5 yr to more than 500 yr; and their spectral types go from early A to mid M, implying total system masses from slightly more than 4M{sub ⊙} down to 0.2M {sub ⊙}. They are located at distances between approximately 12 and 200 pc, mostly at low Galactic latitude. For the double-line spectroscopic binary YSC8, we present the first combined astrometric/radial-velocity orbit resulting from a self-consistent fit, leading to individual component masses of 0.897 ± 0.027 M {sub ⊙} and 0.857 ± 0.026 M {sub ⊙}; and an orbital parallax of 26.61 ± 0.29 mas, which compares very well with the Gaia DR2 trigonometric parallax (26.55 ± 0.27 mas). In combination with published photometry and trigonometric parallaxes, we place our objects on an H-R diagram and discuss their evolutionary status. We also present a thorough analysis of the precision and consistency of the photometry available for them.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

System risk quantification and decision making support using functional modeling and dynamic Bayesian network

Risk-informed decision-making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success of control action, given the system status. This paper presents a systematic state transition modeling approach integrating dynamic probabilistic risk assessment with a decision-making process using a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) coupled with functional modeling. A functional model designed with multilevel flow modeling (MFM) technique was used to build a system state structure inferred by energy, mass, and information flow so that one can verify the developed model with respect to system functionality. The MFM model represents the causal relationship among the nodes, which captures the structure of process parameters and control units. Each node may have multiple possible states, and the DBN structured by the MFM model represents the time-domain transitions among the defined states. Furthermore, the MFM-DBN integrated state transition modeling is a white-box approach that allows one to draw the system's risk profile by updating the system states and supports the decisions probabilistically with physical inference. An example of a simple heating system has been used to illustrate this process, including decision-making support based on quantitative risk profile. For demonstrating its applicability to a complex system operational decision making, a case study of station blackout accident scenario leading to the seal loss of coolant accident in a nuclear power plant is presented. The proposed approach effectively provided the risk profile along time for each option so that the operators can make the best decision, which minimizes the plant risk.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1981

Characterization, parameter estimation, and aircraft response statistics of atmospheric turbulence

A nonGaussian three component model of atmospheric turbulence is postulated that accounts for readily observable features of turbulence velocity records, their autocorrelation functions, and their spectra. Methods for computing probability density functions and mean exceedance rates of a generic aircraft response variable are developed using nonGaussian turbulence characterizations readily extracted from velocity recordings. A maximum likelihood method is developed for optimal estimation of the integral scale and intensity of records possessing von Karman transverse of longitudinal spectra. Formulas for the variances of such parameter estimates are developed. The maximum likelihood and least-square approaches are combined to yield a method for estimating the autocorrelation function parameters of a two component model for turbulence.

Mark, W. D.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Maximum likelihood estimation for life distributions with competing failure modes

Systems which are placed on test at time zero, function for a period and die at some random time were studied. Failure may be due to one of several causes or modes. The parameters of the life distribution may depend upon the levels of various stress variables the item is subject to. Maximum likelihood estimation methods are discussed. Specific methods are reported for the smallest extreme-value distributions of life. Monte-Carlo results indicate the methods to be promising. Under appropriate conditions, the location parameters are nearly unbiased, the scale parameter is slight biased, and the asymptotic covariances are rapidly approached.

Sidik, S. M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Massive νs through the CNN lens: interpreting the field-level neutrino mass information in weak lensing

Modern cosmological surveys probe the Universe deep into the nonlinear regime, where massive neutrinos suppress cosmic structure. Traditional cosmological analyses, which use the 2-point correlation function to extract information, are no longer optimal in the nonlinear regime, and there is thus much interest in extracting beyond-2-point information to improve constraints on neutrino mass. Quantifying and interpreting the beyond-2-point information is thus a pressing task. We study the field-level information in weak lensing convergence maps using convolution neural networks. We find that the network performance increases as higher source redshifts and smaller scales are considered — investigating up to a source redshift of 2.5 and ℓ max ≃ 10 4 — verifying that massive neutrinos leave a distinct effect on weak lensing. However, the performance of the network significantly drops after scaling out the 2-point information from the maps, implying that most of the field-level information can be found in the 2-point correlation function alone. We quantify these findings in terms of the likelihood ratio and also use Integrated Gradient saliency maps to interpret which parts of the map the network is learning the most from. We find that, in the absence of noise, the network extracts a similar amount of information from the most overdense and underdense regions. However, upon adding noise, the information in underdense regions is distorted as noise disproportionately washes out void-like structures.

Golshan, Malika [University of California, Berkele↗
NASA NTRS1975

Multidimensional stochastic approximation using locally contractive functions

A Robbins-Monro type multidimensional stochastic approximation algorithm which converges in mean square and with probability one to the fixed point of a locally contractive regression function is developed. The algorithm is applied to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of multivariate normal distributions.

Lawton, W. M.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Probabilistic constitutive relationships for cyclic material strength models

A methodology is developed that provides a probabilistic treatment for the lifetime of structural components of aerospace propulsion systems subjected to fatigue. Material strength degradation models, based on primitive variables, include both a fatigue strength reduction model and a fatigue crack growth model. Probabilistic analysis is based on simulation, and both maximum entropy and maximum penalized likelihood methods are used for the generation of probability density functions. The resulting constitutive relationships are included in several computer programs.

Boyce, L.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Probabilistic analysis for fatigue strength degradation of materials

This report presents the results of the first year of a research program conducted for NASA-LeRC by the University of Texas at San Antonio. The research included development of methodology that provides a probabilistic treatment of lifetime prediction of structural components of aerospace propulsion systems subjected to fatigue. Material strength degradation models, based on primitive variables, include both a fatigue strength reduction model and a fatigue crack growth model. Linear elastic fracture mechanics is utilized in the latter model. Probabilistic analysis is based on simulation, and both maximum entropy and maximum penalized likelihood methods are used for the generation of probability density functions. The resulting constitutive relationships are included in several computer programs, RANDOM2, RANDOM3, and RANDOM4. These programs determine the random lifetime of an engine component, in mechanical load cycles, to reach a critical fatigue strength or crack size. The material considered was a cast nickel base superalloy, one typical of those used in the Space Shuttle Main Engine.

Royce, Lola↗
NASA NTRS1994

An error covariance model for sea surface topography and velocity derived from TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry

In order to facilitate the use of satellite-derived sea surface topography and velocity oceanographic models, methodology is presented for deriving the total error covariance and its geographic distribution from TOPEX/POSEIDON measurements. The model is formulated using a parametric model fit to the altimeter range observations. The topography and velocity modeled with spherical harmonic expansions whose coefficients are found through optimal adjustment to the altimeter range residuals using Bayesian statistics. All other parameters, including the orbit, geoid, surface models, and range corrections are provided as unadjusted parameters. The maximum likelihood estimates and errors are derived from the probability density function of the altimeter range residuals conditioned with a priori information. Estimates of model errors for the unadjusted parameters are obtained from the TOPEX/POSEIDON postlaunch verification results and the error covariances for the orbit and the geoid, except for the ocean tides. The error in the ocean tides is modeled, first, as the difference between two global tide models and, second, as the correction to the present tide model, the correction derived from the TOPEX/POSEIDON data. A formal error covariance propagation scheme is used to derive the total error. Our global total error estimate for the TOPEX/POSEIDON topography relative to the geoid for one 10-day period is found tio be 11 cm RMS. When the error in the geoid is removed, thereby providing an estimate of the time dependent error, the uncertainty in the topography is 3.5 cm root mean square (RMS). This level of accuracy is consistent with direct comparisons of TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter heights with tide gauge measurements at 28 stations. In addition, the error correlation length scales are derived globally in both east-west and north-south directions, which should prove useful for data assimilation. The largest error correlation length scales are found in the tropics. Errors in the velocity field are smallest in midlatitude regions. For both variables the largest errors caused by uncertainty in the geoid. More accurate representations of the geoid await a dedicated geopotential satellite mission. Substantial improvements in the accuracy of ocean tide models are expected in the very near future from research with TOPEX/POSEIDON data.

Tsaoussi, Lucia S.↗
NASA NTRS2002

The New NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM2000

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office at Johnson Space Center has developed a new computer-based orbital debris engineering model, ORDEM2000, which describes the orbital debris environment in the low Earth orbit region between 200 and 2000 km altitude. The model is appropriate for those engineering solutions requiring knowledge and estimates of the orbital debris environment (debris spatial density, flux, etc.). ORDEM2000 can also be used as a benchmark for ground-based debris measurements and observations. We incorporated a large set of observational data, covering the object size range from 10 mm to 10 m, into the ORDEM2000 debris database, utilizing a maximum likelihood estimator to convert observations into debris population probability distribution functions. These functions then form the basis of debris populations. We developed a finite element model to process the debris populations to form the debris environment. A more capable input and output structure and a user-friendly graphical user interface are also implemented in the model. ORDEM2000 has been subjected to a significant verification and validation effort. This document describes ORDEM2000, which supersedes the previous model, ORDEM96. The availability of new sensor and in situ data, as well as new analytical techniques, has enabled the construction of this new model. Section 1 describes the general requirements and scope of an engineering model. Data analyses and the theoretical formulation of the model are described in Sections 2 and 3. Section 4 describes the verification and validation effort and the sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Finally, Section 5 describes the graphical user interface, software installation, and test cases for the user.

Liou, Jer-Chyi↗
NASA NTRS2003

Non-Genomic Origins of Proteins and Metabolism

It is proposed that evolution of inanimate matter to cells endowed with a nucleic acid- based coding of genetic information was preceded by an evolutionary phase, in which peptides not coded by nucleic acids were able to self-organize into networks capable of evolution towards increasing metabolic complexity. Recent findings that truly different, simple peptides (Keefe and Szostak, 2001) can perform the same function (such as ATP binding) provide experimental support for this mechanism of early protobiological evolution. The central concept underlying this mechanism is that the reproduction of cellular functions alone was sufficient for self-maintenance of protocells, and that self- replication of macromolecules was not required at this stage of evolution. The precise transfer of information between successive generations of the earliest protocells was unnecessary and, possibly, undesirable. The key requirement in the initial stage of protocellular evolution was an ability to rapidly explore a large number of protein sequences in order to discover a set of molecules capable of supporting self- maintenance and growth of protocells. Undoubtedly, the essential protocellular functions were carried out by molecules not nearly as efficient or as specific as contemporary proteins. Many, potentially unrelated sequences could have performed each of these functions at an evolutionarily acceptable level. As evolution progressed, however proteins must have performed their functions with increasing efficiency and specificity. This, in turn, put additional constraints on protein sequences and the fraction of proteins capable of performing their functions at the required level decreased. At some point, the likelihood of generating a sufficiently efficient set of proteins through a non-coded synthesis was so small that further evolution was not possible without storing information about the sequences of these proteins. Beyond this point, further evolution required coupling between proteins and informational polymers that is characteristic to all known forms of life. The emergence of such coupling must be postulated in any scenario of the origin of life, no matter whether it starts with RNA or proteins. To examine the evolutionary potential of non-genomic systems, a simple, computationally tractable model, which is still capable of capturing the essential features of the real system, has been studied computationally. Both constructive and destructive processes have been introduced into the model in a stochastic manner. Instead of assuming random reaction sets, only a suite of protobiologically plausible reactions has been considered. Peptides have been explicitly considered as protoenzymes and their catalytic efficiencies have been assigned on the basis of biochemical principles and experimental estimates. Simulations have been carried out using a novel approach (The Next Reaction Method) that is appropriate even for very low concentrations of reactants. Studies have focused on global autocatalytic processes and their diversity.

Pohorille, Andrew↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Electrifying Aircraft Propulsion: Thermal Issues of Megawatt Scale Power Dense Electric Machines and Material Solutions

Aircraft are the last major mode of transportation to undergo electrification for many reasons, where the underlying reason is the sensitivity of aircraft performance to mass. This sensitivity demands that efficient, megawatt (MW)-scale high specific power density powertrains be developed to impact regional, single aisle and larger aircraft that account for the majority of fuel burn in commercial aviation. Developing MW-scale high specific power electric powertrains (machines, cables/busbars and power electronics) remains a significant challenge. While advanced power semiconductors have enabled higher voltages, densities, and operational frequencies this also leads to passing high current through smaller volumes when considering electric machines and power electronics. This poses significant thermal challenges. This is particularly true for electric machines that strive to surpass 13 kW/kg, which studies have shown to be desirable for electric aircraft propulsion. The necessity of handling high current densities to achieve MW power levels dictates that greater than 10kW of waste heat will be generated. Moreover, most of the heat is generated in the stator winding which is a mixture of electrical conductor (copper or aluminum), potting material, magnet wire (electrical) insulation and high voltage electrical insulation. Although the electrical conductor is a fantastic thermal conductor, it is also the source of the heat (carrying the electrical current) and is thermally isolated by the other materials. Simply letting the machine run at increased temperatures is an attractive idea, however the reality is that most of the suitable electric insulations and potting material candidates are not likely to satisfactorily operate at higher temperatures with reasonable life expectancies. The likelihood of developing new polymers that can satisfy the necessary functions (mechanical and electrical), operate at higher temperatures with acceptable lifetime in the near term is small. This has led the researchers at the NASA Glenn Research Center to examine electrically insulative materials in high power destiny electric machines, their thermal environment, and what solutions are realistic from a materials point of view. This presentation will touch on both the thermal challenges of electric machines and NASA Glenn’s research into material solutions.

Electric Aircraft Propulsion↗
NASA NTRS1989

Probabilities and statistics for backscatter estimates obtained by a scatterometer with applications to new scatterometer design data

The values of the Normalized Radar Backscattering Cross Section (NRCS), sigma (o), obtained by a scatterometer are random variables whose variance is a known function of the expected value. The probability density function can be obtained from the normal distribution. Models for the expected value obtain it as a function of the properties of the waves on the ocean and the winds that generated the waves. Point estimates of the expected value were found from various statistics given the parameters that define the probability density function for each value. Random intervals were derived with a preassigned probability of containing that value. A statistical test to determine whether or not successive values of sigma (o) are truly independent was derived. The maximum likelihood estimates for wind speed and direction were found, given a model for backscatter as a function of the properties of the waves on the ocean. These estimates are biased as a result of the terms in the equation that involve natural logarithms, and calculations of the point estimates of the maximum likelihood values are used to show that the contributions of the logarithmic terms are negligible and that the terms can be omitted.

Pierson, Willard J., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A composite likelihood approach for inference under photometric redshift uncertainty

ABSTRACT Obtaining accurately calibrated redshift distributions of photometric samples is one of the great challenges in photometric surveys like LSST, Euclid, HSC, KiDS, and DES. We present an inference methodology that combines the redshift information from the galaxy photometry with constraints from two-point functions, utilizing cross-correlations with spatially overlapping spectroscopic samples, and illustrate the approach on CosmoDC2 simulations. Our likelihood framework is designed to integrate directly into a typical large-scale structure and weak lensing analysis based on two-point functions. We discuss efficient and accurate inference techniques that allow us to scale the method to the large samples of galaxies to be expected in LSST. We consider statistical challenges like the parametrization of redshift systematics, discuss and evaluate techniques to regularize the sample redshift distributions, and investigate techniques that can help to detect and calibrate sources of systematic error using posterior predictive checks. We evaluate and forecast photometric redshift performance using data from the CosmoDC2 simulations, within which we mimic a DESI-like spectroscopic calibration sample for cross-correlations. Using a combination of spatial cross-correlations and photometry, we show that we can provide calibration of the mean of the sample redshift distribution to an accuracy of at least 0.002(1 + z), consistent with the LSST-Y1 science requirements for weak lensing and large-scale structure probes.

(cosmology:) large-scale structure of Universe↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling the Functional Forms of Grid Disturbances

This report introduces a functional form that may be used to quantitatively predict the impacts of new grid tools and changing system qualities on the likelihoods, durations, and depths of various grid disturbances. Each disturbance scenario is modeled to have three component stages—avoidance, reactance and recovery, which together parametrically estimate one disturbance’s impacts. The modeled scenario is then placed and replicated within an analysis period to represent the likelihood or frequency of the scenario and its consequent impacts. Whereas analysts have struggled to define and apply metrics for grid resilience, the functional form introduced by this report shares units of measurement with accepted grid-status measures (e.g., numbers of customers currently experiencing a service outage). Furthermore, the integrated and averaged functional form over an analysis period provides a meaningful normalized performance metric (e.g., customer outage minutes per year) that is ultimately independent of the duration of the period of. The approach may be applied similarly regardless of the severity or frequency of the disturbances that are being analyzed. Because metrics can be chosen to be identical in both the hypothetical future and the actual historical past, the historical past eventually becomes the test of the future predictions, at least in a statistical sense. The authors originally developed this approach to facilitate analysis of the effects of transactive energy (TE) systems effects on electric power grid resilience. TE systems invite energy suppliers and consumers to actively collaborate toward the discovery of, and their responses to, the locational value of energy. The findings from this process are often embodied as energy prices, the dynamics of which indicate the locational value of energy and can further represent important grid service needs. While some academic papers claim to quantify the value of a specific TE system design toward grid resilience, the answer, in general, has been elusive. Not only do multiple and conflicting definitions of resilience and reliability exist, but countless TE systems are being invented. We conclude the following: (1) The ideal analysis should harmonize rather than differentiate resilience and reliability. Therefore, this report uses the more general term disturbance whenever the overloaded terms resilience and reliability can be avoided. (2) The effectiveness of TE systems must be mapped to underlying qualities of a TE system, thereby avoiding presumptions that every TE design offers similar advantages. The authors seek to evaluate the parametric effects of TE system qualities (e.g., spatial granularity, granularity of time steps, length of future prediction horizon) on avoiding, reacting to, and recovering from grid disturbances. Furthermore, any advantages (or disadvantages) must be fairly compared with the many alternative tools, systems, and strategies that might offer comparable benefits.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗