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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Exact Calculation of Nonideal Fields Demonstrates Their Dominance of Injection in Relativistic Reconnection

Magnetic reconnection is an important source of energetic particles in systems ranging from astrophysics to the laboratory. The large separation of spatiotemporal scales involved makes it critical to determine the minimum physical model containing the necessary physics for modeling particle acceleration. Here, by resolving the energy gain from ideal and nonideal magnetohydrodynamic electric fields self-consistently in kinetic particle-in-cell simulations of reconnection, we conclusively show the dominant role of the nonideal field for the early stage of energization known as injection. The importance of the nonideal field increases with magnetization, guide field, and in three dimensions, indicating its general importance for reconnection in natural astrophysical systems. We obtain the statistical properties of the injection process from the simulations, paving the way for the development of extended MHD models capable of accurately modeling particle acceleration in large-scale systems. The novel analysis method developed in this study can be applied broadly to give new insight into a wide range of processes in plasma physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deciphering Degradation: Machine Learning on Real-World Performance Data (Final Report)

This project addresses a fundamental flaw in solar PV research and solar project financing; the assumed rate of degradation for solar plants. The solar industry currently relies on an out-dated report that observed a 0.5% degradation rate based on a small sample size of systems (~100). While the research conducted at the time was new and innovative, the solar community has not updated this research and universally applies this 0.5% degradation assumption in financial models. Our project updates this assumption by analyzing observed degradation from the industry’s largest dataset of operating solar assets (>10,000 systems) and creating the first machine-learning model based on these observed results to quantify and identify features that drive degradation. There are two strategic goals for this award: reduce the cost of capital (enable solar to attract more capital) and improve the reliability of solar itself. These dual goals are achieved by leveraging an industry dataset to observe system degradation on a large scale, deploying advanced data analysis and machine learning methods to quantify and predict system reliability, and engaging with industry stakeholders to help them accurately price degradation in financial models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Additive Manufacturing with Cellulose-Based Composites: Materials, Modeling, and Applications

Recent advances in large-scale additive manufacturing (AM) with polymer-based composites have enabled efficient production of high-performance materials. Cellulose nanomaterials (CNMs) have emerged as bio-based feedstocks due to their exceptional strength and sustainability. However, challenges such as hornification and poor dispersion in polymer matrices still limit large-scale CNM–polymer composite manufacturing, requiring novel strategies. Here, this review outlines an approach starting with atomic-level simulations to link molecular composition to key parameters like bulk density, viscosity, and modulus. These simulations provide data for finite element analysis (FEA), which informs large-scale experiments and reduces the need for extensive trials. The strategy explores how atomic interactions impact the morphology, adhesion, and mechanical properties of CNM-based composites in AM processes. The review also discusses current developments in AM, along with predictions of mechanical and thermal properties for structural applications, packaging, flexible electronics, and hydrogel scaffolds. By integrating experimental findings with molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and finite element modeling (FEM), valuable insights for material design, process optimization, and performance enhancement in CNM-based AM are provided to address ongoing challenges.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

The cosmological analysis of the SDSS/BOSS data from the Effective Field Theory of Large-Scale Structure

The Effective Field Theory of Large-Scale Structure is a formalism that allows us to predict the clustering of Cosmological Large-Scale Structure in the mildly non-linear regime in an accurate and reliable way. In this paper, after validating our technique against several sets of numerical simulations, we perform the analysis for the cosmological parameters of the DR12 BOSS data. We assume Λ CDM, a fixed value of the baryon/dark-matter ratio, Ω b /Ω c , and of the tilt of the primordial power spectrum, n s , and no significant input from numerical simulations. By using the one-loop power spectrum multipoles, we measure the primordial amplitude of the power spectrum, A s , the abundance of matter, Ω m , and the Hubble parameter, H 0 , {to about 13% , 3.2% and 3.2% respectively, obtaining ln (10 10 A s )=2.72± 0.13 , 0Ω m =0.309± 0.01 , H 0 =68.5± 2.2 km/(s Mpc) at 68% confidence level. If we then add a CMB prior on the sound horizon, the error bar on H 0 is reduced to 1.6% .} These results are a substantial qualitative and quantitative improvement with respect to former analyses, and suggest that the EFTofLSS is a powerful instrument to extract cosmological information from Large-Scale Structure.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven short-term load forecasting methods with large-scale smart meter data

Electricity load forecasting is essential to utility operation and power grid stability. A wide spectrum of data-driven methods, ranging from linear regression models to more recent deep learning models have been adopted to forecast electric load over the years. However, there still lacks a holistic evaluation of the applicability of conventional statistical and machine learning based algorithms with respect to different temporal and spatial scopes, computational requirements, and sensitivity of model-tuning. Enabled by a large-scale electricity load profile dataset of over 40,000 residential customers in a utility region, we conducted a cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven load forecasting methods. Three regression-based and seven deep learning algorithms with different model configurations were evaluated in terms of their overall and peak load prediction accuracy, and training burdens, across spatial aggregation levels ranging from the transformer, feeder, substation, to neighborhood. We found, first, the load forecasting accuracy is constrained by a predictability boundary, influenced by the forecasting horizon and spatial aggregation level. Specifically, RandomForest, XGBoost, TFT, TSMixer, and TiDE models achieved less than 10 % prediction error for up to 96-h ahead forecasting for district, substation, and feeder levels, while other models struggle at long-horizon predictions; Second, for winter and summer peak load dates, most models were able to predict the peak demand timing within ± 1 h, but the prediction percentage error varied by models, with TFT and TiDE models being the top performers; Third, models with similar prediction accuracy can differ in training burden by an order of magnitude. Therefore, choosing model configurations that balance prediction performance and computational resource is an important practical consideration for large-scale deployment of the machine learning based load forecasting. The outcome of this study can guide researchers and practitioners to choose the proper load forecasting algorithms based on their problem scope, required accuracy, and available resources. The predictability boundary can serve as a benchmark for electricity load forecasting problems with new algorithms and datasets.

Li, Han↗
DOE OSTI2026

Basin-scale analysis of Mokelumne River Formation for multi-well CO 2 injection

Large-scale carbon sequestration will likely require multiple projects injecting CO 2 into the same subsurface formation, raising concerns about safe operation and efficient use of storage capacity. This study evaluates the long-term response of the Mokelumne River Formation in California’s Sacramento Basin to multi-megaton CO 2 injection using three geologic models of the formation and the open-source simulator GEOS. The analysis focuses on three aspects of reservoir performance: (1) average pressure increase and dissolved CO 2 mass after 30 years for varying well counts and injection rates, (2) pressure interference in a multi-well configuration, and (3) dynamic storage capacity with identification of overpressure-prone regions. The results show that average formation pressure increases linearly with injected mass, while CO 2 dissolution exhibits mixed scaling: approximately linear with the number of wells but sublinear with injection rate, indicating that distributing injection across more wells enhances dissolution more effectively than increasing per-well rates. Pressure-interference effects are significant, with lower-permeability conditions delaying their onset but amplifying their magnitude at later times. Dynamic capacity, defined by the first occurrence of pressure exceeding the local overburden-based limit anywhere in the formation, varies across geologic models and assumed overburden pressure gradients. A lower fidelity geologic model predicts nearly twice the storage capacity of the two higher fidelity models, which consistently estimate approximately 1 Gt under the upper-bound overburden pressure gradient considered for the Sacramento Basin. In all model scenarios, overpressure develops away from injection wells, particularly in higher-elevation regions, highlighting the importance of basin-scale modelling for identifying risks beyond the immediate well vicinity.

Basin-scale↗
DOE OSTI2024

The BOSS bispectrum analysis at one loop from the Effective Field Theory of Large-Scale Structure

Abstract We analyze the BOSS power spectrum monopole and quadrupole, and the bispectrum monopole and quadrupole data, using the predictions from the Effective Field Theory of Large-Scale Structure (EFTofLSS). Specifically, we use the one loop prediction for the power spectrum and the bispectrum monopole, and the tree level for the bispectrum quadrupole. After validating our pipeline against numerical simulations as well as checking for several internal consistencies, we apply it to the observational data. We find that analyzing the bispectrum monopole to higher wavenumbers thanks to the one-loop prediction, as well as the addition of the tree-level quadrupole, significantly reduces the error bars with respect to our original analysis of the power spectrum at one loop and bispectrum monopole at tree level. After fixing the spectral tilt to Planck preferred value and using a Big Bang Nucleosynthesis prior, we measureσ 8 = 0.794 ± 0.037,h = 0.692 ± 0.011, and Ω m = 0.311 ± 0.010 to about 4.7%, 1.6%, and 3.2%, at 68% CL, respectively.This represents an error bar reduction with respect to the power spectrum-only analysis of about 30%, 18%, and 13% respectively. Remarkably, the results are compatible with the ones obtained with a power-spectrum-only analysis, showing the power of the EFTofLSS in simultaneously predicting several observables. We find no tension with Planck.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Big Data Analytic for Cascading Failure Analysis

With the challenges of increased grid dynamics and more variability of power generation from renewable energy sources, rapidly increasing complexity in the grid model, and abundant data from measurements and simulations, the requirements for computational analysis have also increased dramatically. Power system operators and engineers need to analyze more scenarios, extract meaningful information from a larger set of data, and respond more quickly when faced with these new challenges for large-scale applications, such as contingency analysis. This paper proposes a novel big data analysis approach for power system cascading analysis, prevention, and remediation. The developed techniques will be capable of cascading analysis, better assessment of the system’s vulnerability level, as well as proposing potential remediation. Case studies using IEEE 118-bus system and a 500-bus system, with a comparison against a commercial tool, validate the advantages of the developed big data approach: accurate prediction, and more importantly, faster and effective correction actions.The developed techniques could be further used for other power system applications.

big data, cascading analysis, corrective action, m↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analytical Voltage Sensitivity Analysis for Unbalanced Power Distribution System

Large scale integration of distributed energy resources and electric vehicles in a transactive energy environment present new challenges in terms of voltage stability and fluctuations in a power distribution system. The impact of different level of DER/EV penetration on the voltages across the network is typically quantified through voltage sensitivity analyses. Existing methods of voltage sensitivity analysis are computationally expensive and prior efforts to develop analytical approximation lacks generality and have not been effectively validated. The objective of this work is to provide a new analytical method of voltage sensitivity analysis that has low computational cost and also allows for stochastic analysis of voltage change. This paper first derives an analytical approximation of change in voltage at a particular bus due to change in power consumption at other bus in a radial three phase unbalanced power distribution system. Then, the proposed method is shown to be valid for different load configurations, which demonstrates its generality. The results from our analytical approach is validated via classical load flow simulation of the test system based on IEEE 37 bus network. The proposed method is shown to have good accuracy, and computation complexity is of order O(1), compared to O(n3) in classical sensitivity analysis approaches.

Munikoti, Sai↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling of Grid-Forming and Grid-Following Inverters for Dynamic Simulation of Large-Scale Distribution Systems

Historically, distribution system planning studies mainly focused on steady state and quasi-steady state analysis, with limited attention paid to dynamic analysis. This paper develops three-phase, electromechanical models for both grid-forming and grid-following inverters, and integrates them into an open source, three-phase distribution network solver, thereby enabling dynamic simulation of large-scale, three-phase unbalanced distribution systems with high penetration of inverter-based DERs. The proposed inverter models are validated against electromagnetic simulation and field test data from the CERTS/AEP microgrid testbed, and simulated in an islanded 5252 node distribution system in the GridLAB-D simulation environment. Simulation verifies the effectiveness of the proposed inverter models for large-scale distribution system analysis. Finally, study results show that compared to traditional grid-following inverters, the high penetration of grid-forming inverters can improve the voltage and frequency stability of islanded distribution systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Meteorological environments associated with California wildfires and their potential roles in wildfire changes during 1984-2017

California has been seeing more wildfires in recent years, resulting in huge economic losses and threatening human health. Clarifying the meteorological environments of wildfires is foundational to improving the understanding and prediction of wildfires and their impacts. Here, 1535 California wildfires during 1984-2017 are systematically investigated. Based on two key meteorological factors - temperature and moisture anomalies - all wildfires are classified into four groups: hot-dry, hot-wet, cold-dry, cold-wet. Most (~60%) wildfires occurred on hot-dry days. Compositing the large-scale environments of the four groups shows that persistent high pressure and strong northeasterly wind descending from inland favor hot-dry conditions for wildfires. This analysis also reveals an important role of anomalies in southerly onshore flow that supports stronger convection, accompanied by more lightning flashes that provide a triggering mechanism for wildfires under hot-wet conditions. Self-organizing map analysis lends confidence in the large-scale meteorological pattern for dominating hot-dry wildfires in California. Besides wildfire occurrence, wildfire size is also influenced by meteorological anomalies through their magnitudes. Among them, moisture anomaly explains the largest fraction (~69%) of variability in wildfire sizes. Large-scale meteorological anomalies are found to play an important role in the devastating 2018 wildfire season in California. During 1984-2017, wildfire burned area has significantly increased by ~3.6% per year, indicating a doubling of burned area in 2017 relative to 1984, with the trend dominated by hot-dry wildfires in summer. Drying and warming in conjunction with strengthening of the high pressure in summer support more frequent and larger wildfires in California.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stochastic Gradients for Large-Scale Tensor Decomposition

Tensor decomposition is a well-known tool for multiway data analysis. This work proposes using stochastic gradients for efficient generalized canonical polyadic (GCP) tensor decomposition of large-scale tensors. GCP tensor decomposition is a recently proposed version of tensor decomposition that allows for a variety of loss functions such as Bernoulli loss for binary data or Huber loss for robust estimation. Here, the stochastic gradient is formed from randomly sampled elements of the tensor and is efficient because it can be computed using the sparse matricized-tensor times Khatri--Rao product tensor kernel. For dense tensors, we simply use uniform sampling. For sparse tensors, we propose two types of stratified sampling that give precedence to sampling nonzeros. Numerical results demonstrate the advantages of the proposed approach and its scalability to large-scale problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Probing the limits of cosmological information from the Lyman- α forest 2-point correlation functions

The standard cosmological analysis with the Lyα forest relies on a continuum fitting procedure that suppresses information on large scales and distorts the three-dimensional correlation function on all scales. In this work, we present the first cosmological forecasts without continuum fitting distortion in the Lyα forest, focusing on the recovery of large-scale information. Using idealized synthetic data, we compare the constraining power of the full shape of the Lyα forest auto-correlation and its cross-correlation with quasars using the baseline continuum fitting analysis versus the true continuum. We find that knowledge of the true continuum enables a ∼ 10% reduction in uncertainties on the Alcock-Paczyński (AP) parameter and the matter density, Ω m . We also explore the impact of large-scale information by extending the analysis up to separations of 240 h -1 Mpc along and across the line of sight. The combination of these analysis choices can recover significant large-scale information, yielding up to a ∼ 15% improvement in AP constraints. This improvement is analogous to extending the Lyα forest survey area by ∼ 40%.

Lyman alpha forest↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gaussian processes for autonomous data acquisition at large-scale synchrotron and neutron facilities

The execution and analysis of complex experiments are challenged by the vast dimensionality of the underlying parameter spaces. Although an increase in data-acquisition rates should allow broader querying of the parameter space, the complexity of experiments and the subtle dependence of the model function on input parameters remains daunting owing to the sheer number of variables. New strategies for autonomous data acquisition are being developed, with one promising direction being the use of Gaussian process regression (GPR). GPR is a quick, non-parametric and robust approximation and uncertainty quantification method that can be applied directly to autonomous data acquisition. We review GPR-driven autonomous experimentation and illustrate its functionality using real-world examples from large experimental facilities in the USA and France. We introduce the basics of a GPR-driven autonomous loop with a focus on Gaussian processes, and then shift the focus to the infrastructure that needs to be built around GPR to create a closed loop. Finally, the case studies we discuss show that Gaussian-process-based autonomous data acquisition is a widely applicable method that can facilitate the optimal use of instruments and facilities by enabling the efficient acquisition of high-value datasets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Numerical Analysis of Combustion Dynamics in a Full-Scale Rotating Detonation Rocket Engine using Large Eddy Simulations

Large eddy simulations (LES) using detailed chemistry and leveraging adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) are performed to gain insights into the combustion dynamics within a full-scale methane-oxygen non-premixed rotating detonation rocket engine (RDRE) employing impinging discrete injection schemes. In particular, a comparative analysis of two operating conditions corresponding to the same global equivalence ratio but different mass flow rates is carried out to investigate the resultant impact on detonation wave characteristics and RDRE global performance. Multiple co-rotating detonation waves with spatially-distributed wave structure and preferential alignment with the inner wall of the annulus (due to asymmetry in fuel distribution) are encountered under both conditions. Both cases exhibit pre-detonation deflagrative burning in the fill region, while one of the cases shows higher susceptibility to backflow into the feed plenums due to lower plenum pressures. Furthermore, heat release analysis shows that the thrust obtained from the RDRE is closely linked to the distribution of total heat release between detonative and deflagrative combustion. On the other hand, combustion efficiency is associated with the fraction of heat release occurring in fuel-rich versus fuel-lean regions within the RDRE.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Scaling open-weight large language models for hydropower regulatory information extraction: A systematic analysis

Information extraction from regulatory and technical documents using large language models (LLMs) involves practical trade-offs between extraction quality and computational cost. We evaluate eight open-weight LLMs spanning 0.6B–70B parameters on hydropower licensing documents and report deployment-oriented evidence under a unified extraction schema and evaluation protocol. Across the model set, we observe clear scale-dependent trends in both baseline extraction quality and the effectiveness of reflective reasoning (self-checking) under our fixed-prompt, no-augmentation setting. Mid-scale models often provide a favorable balance of accuracy and efficiency, whereas the smallest models show limited or inconsistent gains from the reasoning variants tested. Larger models achieve the highest overall F1 scores but incur substantially greater compute and infrastructure requirements. We further find that reliability failure modes can distort conventional metrics in this domain: in particular, high recall can coincide with systematic extraction errors when models fabricate values for fields that are absent from the source text, underscoring the importance of conservative null handling and evidence-grounded evaluation. Overall, our study provides a reproducible resource–performance comparison for open-weight LLM-based extraction in hydropower regulatory documentation and offers practical guidance for model selection under different deployment constraints.

Evaluation protocol↗
DOE OSTI2023

Coupled wave-current modeling for hydrodynamic load analysis of macroalgae cultivation farms

Large-scale cultivation of macroalgae is one of the most promising biofuel sources that could reduce our consumption of fossil fuels and would be particularly economically competitive when grown for the co-production of additional goods such as food and textiles. Current production of biofuel from algal biomass is limited by labor costs and lack of data on potential impacts of cultivation and harvesting on marine and coastal environments as well as a comprehensive characterization of the impact of environmental conditions on macroalgal feedstock and their bioproduct and biofuel yield and quality. Awarded by the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) Macroalgae Research Inspiring Novel Energy Resources (MARINER) program, which seeks to enable the U.S. as a global leader in the production of marine biomass, the Marine Biological Laboratory (MBL) has been developing a test system for tropical seaweed cultivation in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean. An integral step in designing macroalgae cultivation farms is to adequately characterize the hydrodynamic climate at potential growth sites. In regions like the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, which are highly exposed to tropical cyclones, it is critical to not only consider the day-to-day hydrodynamic conditions but to also assess the risk of extreme sea states to ensure the survivability of future macroalgae farms. Under these considerations, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is providing modeling support for MBL to inform the design and siting of the farm systems that have been proposed for their ARPA-E MARINER project. This report describes the development of a high-resolution coupled storm surge and wave model to simulate the hydrodynamics and wave climate at proposed macroalgae cultivation sites selected by MBL in Florida and Puerto Rico. Model results, including model validation, water level, current distributions, and sea states, are discussed for both selected sites in Florida and Puerto Rico coast. These simulations provide an accurate insight into the hydrodynamic conditions that a macroalgae farm is likely to experience during its operational lifetime, including current information to support fine-scale hydrodynamic load modeling, risk analysis and system design.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗