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At least 235 records · Page 13

Data augmentation for disruption prediction via robust surrogate models

The goal of this work is to generate large statistically representative data sets to train machine learning models for disruption prediction provided by data from few existing discharges. Such a comprehensive training database is important to achieve satisfying and reliable prediction results in artificial neural network classifiers. Here, we aim for a robust augmentation of the training database for multivariate time series data using Student t process regression. We apply Student t process regression in a state space formulation via Bayesian filtering to tackle challenges imposed by outliers and noise in the training data set and to reduce the computational complexity. Thus, the method can also be used if the time resolution is high. We use an uncorrelated model for each dimension and impose correlations afterwards via colouring transformations. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on plasma diagnostics data of three different disruption classes from the DIII-D tokamak. To evaluate if the distribution of the generated data is similar to the training data, we additionally perform statistical analyses using methods from time series analysis, descriptive statistics and classic machine learning clustering algorithms.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

One Pot Synthesis of Cyan Emitting CdZnSSe Quantum Dots for Human Centric Lighting

A one pot synthesis of blue and green emissive CdZnSSe quantum dots (QDs) from thio- and selenoureas and Cd and Zn carboxylates is optimized using high throughput robotic optimization. A large set of spectral data (N = 192) is used to train machine learning models that accurately predict the photoluminescence emission wavelength (λmax) and full-width half-maximum, and the relative photoluminescence quantum yield (PLQY) from the S:Se and Zn:Cd stoichiometries and reaction time. ZnS shells are deposited on the crude QD heterostructures using 4-tert-butylbenzyl mercaptan, a more reactive source of sulfide that enables shell growth below the temperature where ion diffusion in the QD can broaden its optical spectrum (≤275 °C). These optimized procedures provide gram quantities of blue-green emitting QDs (PLQY = 85–99%) in a single reaction vessel. A solid state lighting device (4260 K) that incorporates cyan emissive QDs achieved a higher luminous efficacy of 179 lm/W and melanopic daylight efficiency ratio (0.71) than existing commercial human centric lighting devices.

Jordan, Abraham J↗

Gas Transfer Across Air‐Water Interfaces in Inland Waters: From Micro‐Eddies to Super‐Statistics

In inland water covering lakes, reservoirs, and ponds, the gas exchange of slightly soluble gases such as carbon dioxide, dimethyl sulfide, methane, or oxygen across a clean and nearly flat air‐water interface is routinely described using a water‐side mean gas transfer velocity $\overline{k_{L}}$, where overline indicates time or ensemble averaging. The micro‐eddy surface renewal model predicts $\overline{k_{L}}$ = α o Sc -1/2 ($v\bar{ϵ}$) 1/4 , where Sc is the molecular Schmidt number, $v$ is the water kinematic viscosity, and $\bar{ϵ}$ is the waterside mean turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate at or near the interface. While α o = 0.39 - 0.46 has been reported across a number of data sets, others report large scatter or variability around this value range. It is shown here that this scatter can be partly explained by high temporal variability in instantaneous ϵ around $\bar{ϵ}$, a mechanism that was not previously considered. As the coefficient of variation (CV e ) in ϵ increases, α o must be adjusted by a multiplier (1 = CV e 2 ) -3/32 that was derived from a log‐normal model for the probability density function of ϵ. Reported variations in α o with a macro‐scale Reynolds number can also be partly attributed to intermittency effects in ϵ. Such intermittency is characterized by the long‐range (i.e., power‐law decay) spatial auto‐correlation function of ϵ. That α o varies with a macro‐scale Reynolds number does not necessarily violate the micro‐eddy model. Instead, it points to a coordination between the macro‐ and micro‐scales arising from the transfer of energy across scales in the energy cascade.

Batchelor scale↗

Perspectives on Systematic Cloud Microphysics Scheme Development With Machine Learning

Cloud microphysics—the collection of processes that govern the small‐scale formation, evolution, and interactions of liquid droplets and ice crystals in clouds and precipitation—remains a major source of uncertainty in weather and climate models. Although too small in scale to be explicitly resolved in any large‐eddy simulation, weather, or climate model, the representation of cloud microphysical processes has significant impact at the climate scale. Current microphysical schemes are limited by both parametric uncertainty, linked to uncertainty in physical parameter values, and structural uncertainty, arising from incomplete physical understanding of the processes at play or approximations made for computational efficiency. Recent advances in the application of machine learning (ML) to the physical sciences show significant potential for minimizing these limitations by leveraging high‐fidelity simulations and observations. Here we outline the challenges that must be addressed to apply ML toward cloud microphysics scheme development. This perspectives paper synthesizes recent progress in using data‐driven methods, including ML, to improve cloud microphysics parameterizations and highlights opportunities to address key uncertainties. We discuss the roles of aleatoric (irreducible, or statistical) and epistemic (reducible, or systematic) errors in contributing to microphysics parameterization uncertainty. ML can leverage observations to improve microphysical schemes via bottom‐up and top‐down constraints. Methods such as differentiable programming and ML‐enhanced sampling strategies and the creation of large scale benchmark data sets promise to bridge the gap between observations and models and to improve the consistency of cloud microphysical representation across temporal and spatial scales.

Lamb, Kara D. [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (Unite↗

A comparison of compact, presumably young with extended, evolved radio active galactic nuclei

Context.The triggering and evolution of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) and the interaction of the AGN with its host galaxy is an important topic in extragalactic astrophysics. Radio sources with peaked spectra (peaked spectrum sources, PSS) and compact symmetric objects (CSO) are powerful, compact, and presumably young AGNs and therefore particularly suitable to study aspects of the AGN-host connection. Aims.We use a statistical approach to investigate properties of a PSS-CSO sample that are related to host galaxies and could potentially shed light on the link between host galaxies and AGNs. The main goal is to compare the PSS-CSO sample with a matching comparison sample of extended sources (ECS) to see if the two have significant differences. Methods.We analysed composite spectra, diagnostic line diagrams, multi-band spectral energy distributions (MBSEDs), star formation (SF) indicators, morphologies, and cluster environments for a sample of 121 PSSs and CSOs for which spectra are available from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). The statistical results were compared with those of the ECS sample, where we generally considered the two subsamples of quasi-stellar objects (QSOs) and radio galaxies separately. The analysis is based on a large set of archival data in the spectral range from the ultraviolet to mid-infrared. Results.We find significant differences between the PSS-CSO and the ECS sample. In particular, we find that the ECS sample has a higher proportion of passive galaxies with a lower star formation activity. This applies to both sub-samples (QSOs or radio galaxies) as well as to the entire sample. The star formation rates of the PSS-CSO host galaxies with available data are typically in the range ∼0 to 5 ℳ ⊙ yr −1 , and the stellar masses are in the range 3 × 10 11 to 10 12 ℳ ⊙ . Secondly, in agreement with previous results, we find a remarkably high proportion of PSS-CSO host galaxies with merger signatures. The merger fraction of the PSS-CSO sample is 0.61 ± 0.07, which is significantly higher than that of the comparison sample (0.15 ± 0.06). We suggest that this difference can be explained by assuming that the majority of the PSSs and CSOs cannot evolve to extended radio sources and are therefore not represented in our comparison sample.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Multiaxial Plastic Deformation of Zircaloy-4 Nuclear Fuel Cladding Tubes

Here, this work is motivated by the desire to devise an internal pressure test that can mimic a displacement-controlled loading scenario and demonstrate how to apply the multiaxial stress and strain data from the test to develop an elastic/plastic constitutive model for a thin-walled tubular component. This is achieved by conducting simultaneous measurements of tangential and axial strain during the pressure test and integrating these strain measures into a feedback loop with the pressure controller. It is shown how data from such a test can be used to develop a large mechanical property data set relevant to biaxial loading conditions. The data obtained have high confidence evidenced by their low variability and alignment with other literature studies. Additionally, data from these internal pressure tests combined with full-tube axial tensile tests allow for the derivation of the Hill anisotropic yield function. The developed Hill yield function is validated by comparing the plastic strain ratios from the full-tube tension tests and by comparing the predicted yield stress in the tangential direction with measured values from ring tension tests in a previous study.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

New H2O–H2O collisional rate coefficients for cometary applications

ABSTRACT We re-introduce a semiclassical methodology based on theories developed for the determination of broadening coefficients. We show that this simple and extremely fast methodology provides results that are in good agreement with results obtained using the more sophisticate MQCT approach. This semiclassical methodology could be an alternative approach which allows to provide large sets of collisional data for very complex molecular systems. It saves time both on the determination of potential energy surfaces and on the collisional dynamical calculations. In addition, this paper provides more complete sets of rotational de-excitation cross-sections and rate coefficients of H2O perturbed by a thermal average of water molecules. Those data can be used in the radiative transfer modelling of cometary atmospheres.

Boursier, C.↗

Weakly supervised anomaly detection in the Milky Way

ABSTRACT Large-scale astrophysics data sets present an opportunity for new machine learning techniques to identify regions of interest that might otherwise be overlooked by traditional searches. To this end, we demonstrate how Classification Without Labels (CWoLa), a weakly supervised anomaly detection method, can help identify cold stellar streams within the more than one billion Milky Way stars observed by the Gaia satellite. CWoLa operates without the use of labelled streams or knowledge of astrophysical principles. Instead, it uses a classifier to distinguish between mixed samples for which the proportions of signal and background samples are unknown. As a proof of concept, we demonstrate that this computationally lightweight strategy is able to detect both simulated streams and the known stream GD-1 in data. Originally designed for high-energy collider physics, this technique may have broad applicability within astrophysics as well as other domains interested in identifying localized anomalies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Grid Utility Asset Vulnerability Assessment (GUAVA) Software Tool

Increasing demand and changes in generation portfolios is pushing power grid to operate towards the limit. However, due to lack of analytical tools for understanding various scales of impact on grid, it is becoming more vulnerable to wide scale power outages and blackouts. A vulnerable grid operating at its limit can be easily disrupted by asset failures caused by devastating hurricanes which has been known to damage transmission and distribution lines along its track. In this direction, researchers have focused on determining these assets by conducting Monte Carlo simulations of hurricanes with uncertainties and collected a large set of simulation data. To determine the infrastructure updates necessary for mitigating wide scale impact of hurricanes on the grid, we propose a software tool named “Grid Utility Asset Vulnerability Analysis” (GUAVA) framework. GUAVA presents a novel data-driven probabilistic analytical approach to (1) post-process hurricane failure scenarios, (2) identify/rank assets that are most vulnerable and critical to failing and are associated with highest impact/risk, and (3) to inform system upgrade decisions & prioritization. Based on the observed results and employed data-driven methodology, it is expected GUAVA can be adapted to provide power system planners with a recommendation engine for making informed decisions to improve resilience of grid.

Mahapatra, Kaveri↗

Seascape Interface Control Document (V.1)

This paper serves as the Interface Control Document (ICD) for the Seascape automated test harness developed at Sandia National Laboratories. The primary purposes of the Seascape system are: (1) provide a place for accruing large, curated, labeled data sets useful for developing and evaluating detection and classification algorithms (including, but not limited to, supervised machine learning applications) (2) provide an automated structure for specifying, running and generating reports on algorithm performance. Seascape uses GitLab, Nexus, Solr, and Banana, open source codes, together with code written in the Python language, to automatically provision and configure computational nodes, queue up jobs to accomplish algorithms test runs against the stored data sets, gather the results and generate reports which are then stored in the Nexus artifact server.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Seascape Interface Control Document (V. 2)

This paper serves as the Interface Control Document (ICD) for the Seascape automated test harness developed at Sandia National Laboratories. The primary purposes of the Seascape system are: (1) provide a place for accruing large, curated, labeled data sets useful for developing and evaluating detection and classification algorithms (including, but not limited to, supervised machine learning applications) (2) provide an automated structure for specifying, running and generating reports on algorithm performance. Seascape uses GitLab, Nexus, Solr, and Banana, open source codes, together with code written in the Python language, to automatically provision and configure computational nodes, queue up jobs to accomplish algorithms test runs against the stored data sets, gather the results and generate reports which are then stored in the Nexus artifact server.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Seascape Interface Control Document

This paper serves as the Interface Control Document (ICD) for the Seascape automated test harness developed at Sandia National Laboratories. The primary purposes of the Seascape system are: (1) provide a place for accruing large, curated, labeled data sets useful for developing and evaluating detection and classification algorithms (including, but not limited to, supervised machine learning applications) (2) provide an automated structure for specifying, running and generating reports on algorithm performance. Seascape uses GitLab, Nexus, Solr, and Banana, open source software, together with code written in the Python language, to automatically provision and configure computational nodes, queue up jobs to accomplish algorithms test runs against the stored data sets, gather the results and generate reports which are then stored in the Nexus artifact server.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

First Images of the Protoplanetary Disk around PDS 201

Scattered light imaging has revealed nearly a dozen circumstellar disks around young Herbig Ae/Be stars—enabling studies of structures in the upper disk layers as potential signs of ongoing planet formation. We present the first images of the disk around the variable Herbig Ae star PDS 201 (V* V351 Ori) and an analysis of the images and spectral energy distribution through 3D Monte Carlo radiative transfer simulations and forward modeling. The disk is detected in three data sets with the Large Binocular Telescope Interferometer/Large Binocular Telescope mid-infrared camera at the Large Binocular Telescope, including direct observations in the Ks and L′ filters, and an L′ observation with the 360° vector apodizing phase plate coronagraph. The scattered light disk extends to a very large radius of ∼250 au, which places it among the largest of such disks. Exterior to the disk, we establish detection limits on substellar companions down to ∼5 M {sub Jup} at ≳1.″5 (≳500 au), assuming the Baraffe et al. models. The images show a radial gap extending to ∼0.″4 (∼140 au at a distance of 340 pc) that is also evident in the spectral energy distribution. The large gap is a possible signpost of multiple high-mass giant planets at orbital distances (∼60–100 au) that are unusually massive and widely separated compared to those of planet populations previously inferred from protoplanetary disk substructures.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Magnitude-squared Coherence: A Powerful Tool for Disentangling Doppler Planet Discoveries from Stellar Activity

Abstract If Doppler searches for Earth-mass, habitable planets are to succeed, observers must be able to identify and model out stellar activity signals. Here we demonstrate how to diagnose activity signals by calculating the magnitude-squared coherence C ˆ xy 2 ( f ) between an activity-indicator time series x t and the radial-velocity (RV) time series y t . Since planets only cause modulation in RV, not in activity indicators, a high value of C ˆ xy 2 ( f ) indicates that the signal at frequency f has a stellar origin. We use Welch’s method to measure coherence between activity indicators and RVs in archival observations of GJ 581, α Cen B, and GJ 3998. High RV-H α coherence at the frequency of GJ 3998 b and high RV-S index coherence at the frequency of GJ 3998c, indicate that the planets may actually be stellar signals. We also replicate previous results showing that GJ 581 d and g are rotation harmonics and demonstrate that α Cen B has activity signals that are not associated with rotation. Welch’s power spectrum estimates have cleaner spectral windows than Lomb–Scargle periodograms, improving our ability to estimate rotation periods. We find that the rotation period of GJ 581 is 132 days, with no evidence of differential rotation. Welch’s method may yield unacceptably large bias for data sets with N < 75 observations and works best on data sets with N > 100. Tapering the time-domain data can reduce the bias of the Welch’s power spectrum estimator, but observers should not apply tapers to data sets with extremely uneven observing cadence. A software package for calculating magnitude-squared coherence and Welch’s power spectrum estimates is available on github.

Dodson-Robinson, Sarah E. (ORCID:0000000287964974)↗

Bridging the time scale in exascale computing of chemical systems (Final Technical Report)

This report summarizes the work carried out with support of the United States Department of Energy under Award DE-SC0019441. The theme of this project was to develop and apply methods that allowed for the acceleration of atomistic calculations, particularly in challenging areas such as multiphase systems, electrified interfaces, uncertainty estimation, and applications requiring chemical accuracy, which tend to be applications where simulation time is severely bottlenecked by the computational time requirements. Much of the focus was on the application of emerging machine-learning methodologies, although a wide range of methodologies were employed. This report has two major sections. The first focuses on the methodological advances themselves. Within this part, we report a number of major advances, a few examples of which are described here. We report the first machine-learning scheme for the acceleration of electronically grand-canonical calculations (that is, those applicable to electrochemistry). We report new methods of performing transfer learning, in which physics-based priors can be used to provide predictions, often with uncertainty estimates, of images well outside of training sets; we also offer ways to fine-tune these transfer-learning models. We provide a new systematic means to generate and apply minimal training data sets to very large (10,000’s of atoms) systems, with only small training sets appropriate for electronic structure. We developed new methodologies to integrate surface vibrations into surface adsorption calculations. We made advances to the applicability of diffusion Monte Carlo methods to allow (learned) force prediction, finite-size error correction, and force-free means of searching for transition states. We integrated machine-learned atomistic predictions into mechanism generation codes. Additionally, we released new software including AmpTorch, a modernized version of our original atomistic machine-learning code Amp. The second part of this report focuses on the scientific applications that accompanied, and were often enabled by, the methodological advances described earlier. A few examples follow, but full details are in the individual chapters of the report. For example, we developed a general theory of phonon-induced friction on molecular adsorbates. We showed fundamentally how solvent influences the adsorption and desorption process and how it differs from the processes typically involved at the solid–gas interface, making aqueous-phase and electrocatalysis different from traditional thermocatalysis. We examined how metal–insulator and magnetic transitions can be probed, and accelerated exciton dynamics via Frenkel Hamiltonian parameters. We showed that the nearsighted force-training approach, developed within this project, can predict both the stability and reactivity of large nanoparticles, and can also lead to insights on catalyst coverage on binding energies and entropies. These applied studies, which generally integrated with our method development, allowed us to push forward the theoretical understanding of several reaction classes.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Observational constraints on early dark energy

In this paper, we review and update constraints on the Early Dark Energy (EDE) model from cosmological data sets, in particular Planck PR3 and PR4 cosmic microwave background (CMB) data and large-scale structure (LSS) data sets including galaxy clustering and weak lensing data from the Dark Energy Survey, Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam and KiDS+VIKING-450, as well as BOSS/eBOSS galaxy clustering and Lyman-[Formula: see text] forest data. We detail the fit to CMB data, and perform the first analyses of EDE using the CAMSPEC and Hillipop likelihoods for Planck CMB data, rather than Plik, both of which yield a tighter upper bound on the allowed EDE fraction than that found with Plik. We then supplement CMB data with LSS data in a series of new analyses. All these analyses are concordant in their Bayesian preference for [Formula: see text]CDM over EDE, as indicated by marginalized posterior distributions. We perform a series of tests of the impact of priors in these results, and compare with frequentist analyses based on the profile likelihood, finding qualitative agreement with the Bayesian results. All these tests suggest prior volume effects are not a determining factor in analyses of EDE. This work provides both a review of existing constraints and several new analyses.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

SIRIUS: Science-Driven Data Management for Multi-Tiered Storage

The data sets being generated by large applications on very large-scale systems are increasing in both size and complexity. At the same time, there are new ways available to store and access these data sets. The goal in this project is to develop software that applications can use to make use of new and existing storage technologies in more sophisticated ways. One challenge in scientific data management is handling ‘hot’ vs ‘cold’ data. Data that is hot is data that is needed (or will be needed soon) in order for the program to continue progressing, while cold data is either output (and so will not be need further during the life of the program) or will not be needed until significantly later in the program’s run. Hot data should be stored in a way that allows fast access. On most systems, economic factors lead to an inverse relationship between storage performance and storage capacity and so fast access storage is limited. This makes it important to correctly place hot and cold data and avoid cold data unnecessarily consuming precious resources. In this reporting period, we addressed this challenge in various ways and at various levels. Data management frameworks offer only limited control to applications in how data is stored. We have added software capabilities for seamlessly moving data between layers of the storage technology using promote and demote functions to existing software frameworks. This gives direct control to applications in deciding what priority data receives. Additionally, we integrated different storage layer management frameworks in order to allow data to be exchanged and moved between storage layers in a consistent way across the application. Further, applications are not always able to directly decide what storage level makes sense for a given piece of data without an understanding of the underlying storage technologies. Data storage frameworks are often positioned to make these sorts of decisions in service of the application. We have added machine-learning based capabilities to data staging frameworks in order to make intelligent decisions about where data should be stored given learning about patterns in previous usage of similar data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Importance of Engineered and Learned Molecular Representations in Predicting Organic Reactivity, Selectivity, and Chemical Properties

Machine-readable chemical structure representations are foundational in all attempts to harness machine learning for the prediction of reactivities, selectivities, and chemical properties directly from molecular structure. The featurization of discrete chemical structures into a continuous vector space is a critical phase undertaken before model selection, and the development of new ways to quantitatively encode molecules is an active area of research. Here, we highlight the application and suitability of different representations, from expert-guided “engineered” descriptors to automatically “learned” features, in different prediction tasks relevant to organic and organometallic chemistry, where differing amounts of training data are available. These tasks include statistical models of stereo- and enantioselectivity, thermochemistry, and kinetics developed using experimental and quantum chemical data. The use of expert-guided molecular descriptors provides an opportunity to incorporate chemical knowledge, domain expertise, and physical constraints into statistical modeling. In applications to stereoselective organic and organometallic catalysis, where data sets may be relatively small and 3D-geometries and conformations play an important role, mechanistically informed features can be used successfully to obtain predictive statistical models that are also chemically interpretable. We provide an overview of several recent applications of this approach to obtain quantitative models for reactivity and selectivity, where topological descriptors, quantum mechanical calculations of electronic and steric properties, along with conformational ensembles, all feature as essential ingredients of the molecular representations used. Alternatively, more flexible, general-purpose molecular representations such as attributed molecular graphs can be used with machine learning approaches to learn the complex relationship between a structure and prediction target. This approach has the potential to out-perform more traditional representation methods such as “hand-crafted” molecular descriptors, particularly as data set sizes grow. One area where this is particularly relevant is in the use of large sets of quantum mechanical data to train quantitative structure–property relationships. A general approach toward curating useful data sets and training highly accurate graph neural network models is discussed in the context of organic bond dissociation enthalpies, where this strategy outperforms regression using precomputed descriptors. Finally, we describe how graph neural network predictions can be incorporated into mechanistically informed statistical models of chemical reactivity and selectivity. Once trained, this approach avoids the expensive computational overhead associated with quantum mechanical calculations, while maintaining chemical interpretability. We illustrate examples for which fast predictions of bond dissociation enthalpy and of the identities of radicals formed through cleavage of a molecule’s weakest bond are used in simple physical models of site-selectivity and reactivity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗