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At least 235 records · Page 13

Impact of changes in protective behaviors and out-of-household activities by age on COVID-19 transmission and hospitalization in Chicago, Illinois

Even with an efficacious vaccine, protective behaviors (social distancing, masking) are essential for preventing COVID-19 transmission and could become even more important if current or future variants evade immunity from vaccines or prior infection. Here we created an agent-based model representing the Chicago population and conducted experiments to determine the effects of varying adult out-of-household activities (OOHA), school reopening, and protective behaviors across age groups on COVID-19 transmission and hospitalizations. From September-November 2020, decreasing adult protective behaviors and increasing adult OOHA both substantially impacted COVID-19 outcomes; school reopening had relatively little impact when adult protective behaviors and OOHA were maintained. As of November 1, 2020, a 50% reduction in young adult (age 18-40) protective behaviors resulted in increased latent infection prevalence per 100,000 from 15.93 (IQR 6.18, 36.23) to 40.06 (IQR 14.65, 85.21)and 19.87 (IQR 6.83, 46.83) to 47.74 (IQR 18.89, 118.77) with 15% and 45% school reopening. Increasing adult (age ≥18) OOHA from 65% to 80% of pre-pandemic levels resulted in increased latent infection prevalence per 100,000 from 35.18 (IQR 13.59, 75.00) to 69.84 (IQR 33.27, 145.89) and 38.17 (IQR 15.84, 91.16) to 80.02 (IQR 30.91, 186.63) with 15% and 45% school reopening. Similar patterns were observed for hospitalizations. In areas without widespread vaccination coverage, interventions to maintain adherence to protective behaviors, particularly among younger adults and in out-of-household settings, remain a priority for preventing COVID-19 transmission.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Advanced Laboratory and Field Arrays (ALFA)/Lab Collaboration Project (LCP) for Marine Energy (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The objective of the Advanced Laboratory and Field Arrays (ALFA) project was to reduce the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of Marine and Hydrokinetic (MHK) energy by leveraging research, development, and testing capabilities at Oregon State University, University of Washington, and the University of Alaska, Fairbanks. ALFA is a project within the Pacific Marine Energy Center (PMEC; formerly NNMREC), a multi-institution entity with a diverse funding base that focuses on research and development for marine renewables. The ALFA project aimed to accelerate the development of next-generation arrays of wave energy conversion (WEC) and tidal energy conversion (TEC) devices through a suite of field-focused R&D activities spanning a broad range of strategic opportunity areas identified in the Funding Opportunity Announcement: • Device and/or array operation and maintenance (O&M) logistics development; • High-fidelity resource characterization and/or modeling technique development and validation; • Array-specific component technology development (e.g. moorings and foundations, transmission, and other offshore grid components); • Array performance testing and evaluation; and • Novel cost-effective environmental monitoring techniques and instrumentation testing and evaluation. The objective of the Lab Collaboration Project (LCP) was to accelerate the development of next-generation marine energy conversion systems. The LCP aimed to achieve these project objectives in collaboration with the national laboratories by: • Developing concept generation and assessment tools; • Improving access to existing testing resources; • Validating collision risk models between fish and turbines; and • Advancing analysis and simulation capabilities for wave-WEC interactions and PTO analysis in nonlinear ocean waves. The ALFA portion of the project was comprised of six overarching technical tasks: • Task 1: Debris Modeling, Detection and Mitigation; • Task 2: Autonomous Monitoring & Intervention; • Task 3: Resource Characterization for Extreme Conditions; • Task 4: Robust Models for Design of Offshore Anchoring and Mooring Systems; • Task 5: Performance Enhancement for Marine Energy Converter (MEC) Arrays; and • Task 6: Evaluating Sampling Techniques for MHK Biological Monitoring. The LCP was divided into four overarching technical tasks: • Task 7: Project Management and Reporting • Task 8: Novel Design and Assessment Methodologies for Wave Energy Converter Design (Wave- SPARC) • Task 9: Testing Access for Commercial Marine Renewable Energy Technology Developers • Task 10: Quantifying Collision Risk for Fish and Turbines • Task 11: Nonlinear Ocean Waves and PTO Control Strategy Each ALFA/LCP task listed above functioned as a separate and discreet project. A final Technical Report was written for each individual task and these reports were uploaded to OSTI, after receiving DOE approval. The following document is a compilation of each of these final, approved reports arranged as individual chapters.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Clean Energy Co-Benefits: Air Quality, Health and Just Energy Transitions

Outdoor air pollution is a leading environmental risk factor and contributes to public health concerns. With assistance from the Department of State, NREL researchers supported the expansion of the Intervention Model for Air Pollution (InMAP) to Global InMAP model. This model offers a new approach to estimating the human health impacts caused by air pollutant emissions and how those impacts are distributed across populations around the world. Further research sponsored by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and executed by NREL and the University of Minnesota applied the Global InMAP Model for the first time in a study of the effects of renewable electricity deployment on air quality and human health in Southeast Asia. This brief details the inception, application, and novel approach of the Global InMAP model, and more broadly NREL's capabilities for air quality modeling and health effects co-benefits analyses in the context of just energy transitions.

air quality↗

Kirigami-Inspired Self-Assembly of 3D Structures

Self-assembly of 3D structures introduce an attractive and scalable route to realize reconfigurable and functionally capable mesoscale devices without human intervention. A common approach for achieving this is to utilize stimuli-responsive folding of hinged structures, which requires the integration of different materials and/or geometric arrangements along the hinges. It is also demonstrated that the inclusion of Kirigami cuts in planar, hingeless bilayer thin sheets can be used to produce complex 3D shapes in an on-demand manner. Nonlinear finite element models are developed to elucidate the mechanics of shape morphing in bilayer thin sheets and verify the predictions through swelling experiments of planar, millimeter-scaled PDMS (polydimethylsiloxane) bilayers in organic solvents. Building upon the mechanistic understandings, The transformation of Kirigami-cut simple bilayers into 3D shapes such as letters from the Roman alphabet (to make “ADVANCED FUNCTIONAL MATERIALS”) and open/closed polyhedral architectures is experimentally demonstrated. A possible application of the bilayers as tether-less optical metamaterials with dynamically tunable light transmission and reflection behaviors is also shown. As the proposed mechanistic design principles could be applied to a variety of materials, this research broadly contributes toward the development of smart, tetherless, and reconfigurable multifunctional systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Representing cropping systems with the MEMS 2 ecosystem model

Abstract Croplands have been the focus of substantial investigation due to their considerable potential for sequestering carbon. Understanding the potential for soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration and necessary management strategies will be enabled with accurate process‐based models. Accurately representing crop growth and agricultural practices will be critical for realistic SOC modeling. The MEMS 2 model incorporates a current understanding of SOC formation and stabilization, measurable SOC pools, and deep SOC dynamics and is seen as a highly promising tool to inform management intervention for SOC sequestration. Thus far, MEMS 2 has been developed to represent grasslands. In this study, we further developed MEMS 2 to model annual grain crops and common agricultural practices, such as irrigation, fertilization, harvesting, and tillage. Using four Ameriflux sites, we demonstrated an accurate simulation of crop growth and development. Model performance was strong for simulating aboveground biomass (index of agreement [d] range of 0.89–0.98) and green leaf area index (dfrom 0.90 to 0.96) across corn, soybean, and winter wheat. Good agreement with observations was also achieved for net ecosystem CO 2 exchange (dfrom 0.90 to 0.96), evapotranspiration (dfrom 0.91 to 0.94), and soil temperature (dof 0.96), while discrepancy with the available soil water content data remain (dfrom 0.14 to 0.81 at four depths to 100 cm). While we will continue model testing and improvement, MEMS 2 (version 2.14) has now demonstrated its ability to effectively simulate the growth of common grain crops and practices.

Agriculture↗

Observational process data analytics using causal inference

Voluminous process data are available with the paradigm shift toward smart manufacturing. However, most historical data are observational, containing noncausal correlations due to confounders and mediators. Estimating causal effects from observational data remains a bottleneck in leveraging them for active applications such as optimization and control. Further, this work aims to introduce a causal modeling framework for analyzing observational process data and extracting quantitative causal information. We demonstrate a real-world application in steel manufacturing where causal inference is used to analyze observational production data and improve the steelmaking process. Additionally, we propose a novel formulation for identifying critical process parameters from observational data, where causal inference is combined with variance-based methods to estimate corresponding risks of interventions to the manufacturing system. The proposed methods are compared with statistical ones to illustrate that causally interpreting statistical correlation leads to problematic results, while the provided workflow generates satisfactory strategies for process improvement.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Smart connected worker edge platform for smart manufacturing: Part 2—Implementation and on‐site deployment case study

Abstract In this paper, we describe specific deployments of the Smart Connected Worker (SCW) Edge Platform for Smart Manufacturing through implementation of four instructive real‐world use cases that illustrate the role of people in a Smart Manufacturing paradigm through which affordable, scalable, accessible, and portable (ASAP) information technology (IT) acquires and contextualizes data into information for transmission to operation technologies (OT). For case one, the platform captures the relationships between energy consumption and human workflows for improved energy productivity while workers interact with machines during semiconductor manufacturing. The platform utilizes human cognition to identify anomalous machine behavior for root cause analysis of system faults via neural network (NN) that recognize alarm postures of workers with cameras. For case two, a smart assembly line is demonstrated for state monitoring and fault detection. Machine learning (ML) models are used to recognize system states and identify fault scenarios with human intervention. For case three, the platform monitors human–machine interactions to classify manufacturing machine states for proper operations and energy productivity. Internal energy states of individual or collections of manufacturing equipment are determined via NN based algorithms that disaggregate signals associated with smart metering typically deployed at manufacturing facilities. These methods predict the real time energy profile of each machine from the total energy profile of a manufacturing site. For case four, a software defined sensor system built with scientific workflow engines is demonstrated for contextualizing data from laser surface refraction for characterization, and diagnostics in the processing of additively manufactured titanium alloy.

Donovan, Richard P.↗

Effects of processing on the efficacy and metabolites of Cistanche tubulosa using ultra‐performance liquid chromatography coupled with quadrupole time‐of‐flight mass spectrometry

Abstract Cistanche tubulosa (CT), a well‐known traditional Chinese medicine, has always been processed with rice wine for the treatment of kidney‐yang deficiency syndrome (KYDS) since time immemorial. To explore the effect of processing on the efficacy and metabolites of CT in vivo , a comprehensive method using ultra‐performance liquid chromatography coupled with quadrupole time‐of‐flight mass spectrometry was established for the analysis of the altered endogenous metabolites in response to the intervention of the raw and processed CT in KYDS model and the metabolites of the absorbed compounds in rats after gastric perfusion. It was shown that CT could improve KYDS, and the effect of the processed product was more significant. A total of 47 differential metabolites were identified in urine. Pathway analysis proved that purine metabolism; alanine, aspartate, and glutamate metabolism; and citrate cycle were the main pathways. Furthermore, 53 prototypes and 48 metabolites have been detected in rats. This was the first systematic research focus on the metabolites of raw and processed CT in vivo , which could provide a scientific basis for explaining the increasing efficiency of the processed CT. Moreover, it provides a valuable strategy for analyzing the chemical components and metabolites of other TCM prescriptions.

Lei, Huibo↗

Beyond ethics: The transformational power of overlapping motivations in implementing strategic sustainability actions

Abstract We develop a methodology to identify patterns between sustainability motivations, actions and engagement. We apply this methodology to analyse a 3 1/2‐year intervention that yielded 151 sustainability actions undertaken by 46 outbound tour operators. We find three aspects that can be explained by the tour operators' motivations to act sustainably, namely, a connection between: (i) the actions taken in the context of the organisation's business model, (ii) the intensity of the approach, measured by the resources invested in it and the operator's commitment level and (iii) the evolution of the response. These patterns demonstrate how ethical motivations are common and a precondition to acting sustainably, but, in themselves, these motivations are not sufficient to integrate sustainability practices into the core business or to maintain commitment over time. It is the combination of a high ethical commitment with clear strategic intent, materialised in commercial and operational motivations, that increases the connectedness, and intensity, of sustainability actions amongst ethically committed firms.

Bonilla‐Priego, Maria Jesus↗

Mechanistic modelling of SARS-CoV-2 and other infectious diseases and the effects of therapeutics

Modern viral kinetic modeling and its application to therapeutics is a field that attracted the attention of the medical, pharmaceutical and modeling communities during the early days of the AIDS epidemic. Its successes lead to applications of modeling methods not only to HIV but a plethora of other viruses, such as hepatitis C virus (HCV), hepatitis B virus (HBV) and cytomegalovirus (CMV), which along with HIV cause chronic diseases, and viruses such as influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), West Nile virus (WNV), Zika virus, and SAR-CoV-2, which generally cause acute infections. Here we first review the historical development of mathematical models to understand HIV and HCV infections and the effects of treatment by fitting the models to clinical data. Furthermore, we then focus on recent efforts and contributions of applying these models towards understanding SARS-CoV-2 infection and highlight outstanding questions where modeling can provide crucial insights and help to optimize non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions of the COVID-19 pandemic. The review is written from our personal perspective emphasizing the power of simple target cell limited models that provided important insights and then their evolution into more complex models that captured more of the virology and immunology. To quote Albert Einstein “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler”, and this idea underlies the modeling we describe below.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Extrapolation of Efficacy from Adults to Pediatric Patients of Drugs for Treatment of Partial Onset Seizures: A Regulatory Perspective

The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has concluded that the efficacy of drugs approved for the treatment of partial onset seizures (POS) in adults can be extrapolated to pediatric patients 1 month of age and above and that independent efficacy trials in this pediatric population are no longer needed. This paper focuses on the dosing, pharmacokinetic (PK), exposure‐response, and clinical information that were leveraged from the approved drugs for the treatment of POS to conduct analyses that supported extrapolation of efficacy in pediatric patients. Clinical data from trials for eight drugs (levetiracetam, oxcarbazepine, topiramate, lamotrigine, gabapentin, perampanel, tiagabine, and vigabatrin) approved in both adults and pediatric patients for the treatment of POS were analyzed. Comparisons of exposures at approved doses, placebo response, and model‐based exposure‐response relationships were performed. Based on disease similarity, similar response to intervention, and similar exposure‐response relationships in adults and pediatric patients, it was concluded that extrapolation of efficacy in pediatric patients aged 1 month and above is acceptable. PK analysis to determine pediatric dose and regimens that provide drug exposure similar to that known to be effective in adult patients with POS will be required, along with long‐term open‐label safety data in pediatric patients.

Pharmacology & Pharmacy↗

Carbon cycling across ecosystem succession in a north temperate forest: Controls and management implications

Despite decades of progress, much remains unknown about successional trajectories of carbon (C) cycling in north temperate forests. Drivers and mechanisms of these changes, including the role of different types of disturbances, are particularly elusive. To address this gap, we synthesized decades of data from experimental chronosequences and long-term monitoring at a well-studied, regionally representative field site in northern Michigan, USA. Our study provides a comprehensive assessment of changes in above- and belowground ecosystem components over two centuries of succession, links temporal dynamics in C pools and fluxes with underlying drivers, and offers several conceptual insights to the field of forest ecology. Our first advance shows how temporal dynamics in some ecosystem components are consistent across severe disturbances that reset succession and partial disturbances that slightly modify it: both of these disturbance types increase soil N availability, alter fungal community composition, and alter growth and competitive interactions between short-lived pioneer and longer-lived tree taxa. Further, these changes in turn affect soil C stocks, respiratory emissions, and other belowground processes. Second, we show that some other ecosystem components have effects on C cycling that are not consistent over the course of succession. For example, canopy structure does not influence C uptake early in succession but becomes important as stands develop, and the importance of individual structural properties changes over the course of two centuries of stand development. Third, we show that in recent decades, climate change is masking or overriding the influence of community composition on C uptake, while respiratory emissions are sensitive to both climatic and compositional change. In synthesis, we emphasize that time is not a driver of C cycling; it is a dimension within which ecosystem drivers such as canopy structure, tree and microbial community composition change. Changes in those drivers, not in forest age, are what control forest C trajectories, and those changes can happen quickly or slowly, through natural processes or deliberate intervention. Stemming from this view and a whole-ecosystem perspective on forest succession, we offer management applications from this work and assess its broader relevance to understanding long-term change in other north temperate forest ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cross‐Cultural Validation of the Binge Eating Disorder Screener‐7 ( BEDS ‐7) Across 42 Countries

ABSTRACT Objective This study aimed to evaluate the reliability and validity of the Binge Eating Disorder Screener‐7 (BEDS‐7) across 42 countries and 26 languages, assessing its reliability and validity as a screening tool for binge‐eating disorder (BED) in diverse cultural contexts. Specifically, it sought to enhance early recognition of BED symptoms in primary care settings globally, contributing to a standardized framework for assessing BED. Method The International Sex Survey, a cross‐sectional online study, was conducted in 42 countries and 26 languages. A diverse community sample of 82,243 participants, aged 18 years or older, completed the BEDS‐7 and measures of sexuality, mental health, substance use, and sociodemographic characteristics. Confirmatory factor analyses and tests of measurement invariance were employed to evaluate the reliability and validity of the BEDS‐7 across languages, countries, genders, and sexual orientations. Results The BEDS‐7 demonstrated scalar factorial invariance across languages and countries, indicating consistent factor loadings and item intercepts. In contrast, the screener showed residual invariance across gender and sexual orientation groups, supporting its robustness across these demographics. Kruskal–Wallis tests revealed significant differences in BED symptoms across languages, countries, genders, and sexual orientations, with the highest BED scores observed among queer, pansexual, and gender‐diverse individuals. The BEDS‐7 also demonstrated adequate reliability (Cronbach's alpha > 0.80) and moderate criterion validity. Discussion The findings provide further evidence of the reliability and validity of the BEDS‐7 as a potential screening tool for identifying probable cases of BED globally, facilitating early intervention in primary care settings.

Gewirtz‐Meydan, Ateret [School of Social Work, Fac↗

Managing ecosystem damage from extreme events

Large disturbances to ecosystems can severely impact the stability of a region's natural resources, habitats, and outdoor recreation. Because extreme events can be large and relatively infrequent, they test institutional capacity to support recovery and restoration. Here, when hurricanes and other large-scale disturbances like wildfires occur, much of the impacted landscape receives little to no active management. Ecosystems are often allowed to either recover or transition without much direct intervention, and successional dynamics are sometimes altered by novel invasive species, management history, or other environmental changes. Recovery and restoration are especially challenging for landscapes with highly fragmented private ownership, such as the forests of the eastern US. Acting alone, non-industrial private forest landowners have little capacity to effectively respond to unexpected forest loss and to oversee forest recovery, as the scale of actions needed after extreme events may require cooperation across ownerships or jurisdictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

How do Management Goals for Wild Chinook Salmon Align with Feasibility?

Evaluation of goals is crucial for effective management to conserve viable and diverse fish populations and to support harvest. Management of wild Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha in the Snake River basin exemplifies the struggle to meet fisheries goals. Considering contemporary production of juvenile emigrants, it is imperative to determine the survival from emigration to adult ( S e‐a ) required to meet abundance goals. Increased anthropogenic impact on spawning and rearing habitats leads to higher S e‐a required to attain goals. Wilderness populations exhibit viability and could sustain fisheries with S e‐a lower than required elsewhere. Conversely, populations targeted for habitat restoration demand higher S e‐a to fulfill goals, indicating a need to enhance egg‐to‐smolt survival. However, S e‐a has fallen below the threshold needed for replacement in all populations, even at current low abundances. Despite these challenges, most populations still possess the potential to achieve abundance goals, emphasizing the importance of strategic interventions to bolster their resilience.

Copeland, Timothy↗

Paradox of sustainability in tobacco control in Thailand: A comprehensive assessment of three-decade experiences

Background: Over the past three decades of tobacco control, Thailand has gained international recognition as a middle-income country with sustained achievement of declining smoking prevalence. However, the number of key FCTC measures implementation is still far away from the highest-level implementation. As a result, we aim to explore explanatory factors for the paradoxical phenomenon of sustainability in tobacco control in Thailand, to understand what the paradox means, why it happens, and how to take further steps in minimizing the paradox. Methods: We used a mixed-method approach comprising qualitative (review of literature and documents plus Program Sustainability Assessment Tool (PSAT) guided key informant interviews) and semi-quantitative methods (PSAT scoring, Theory of change (TOC), and causal-loop diagram (CLD)) to synthesize all the findings from the qualitative data. Results: Across all eight domains, sustainability scores at the local level are lower than the national level. The highest total score was in three domains: political support, partnership, and organizational capacity. The lowest total score was for the strategic planning domain. We propose a set of key strategic elements and drivers for future strategic planning. Discussion: Using CLD, we capture a high-level view of tobacco control with dynamic interactions between contexts, mechanisms, interventions, and outcomes. Finally, we believe the deep understanding of tobacco control and the proposed strategy to counteract transnational tobacco companies in Thailand will guide future sustainable actions to reduce the prevalence of smoking, especially in the strategic planning domain that has the lowest PSAT score.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A Systems Thinking Approach to Nuclear Pedagogy and Workforce Development

Nuclear technology's controversial status has been shaped by its early use in military applications, fear driven by high-profile accidents, and unresolved waste management challenges. There have, on the other hand, been periodic claims that a “nuclear renaissance” is imminent, driven by different dynamics at different times, most recently related to growing energy demands and increasing concern over carbon emissions. In this article, we respond to urgent calls for more nuclear engineers, resulting from the latest rallying cry around nuclear energy, by reframing the problem using a systems thinking approach that illuminates new pathways for nuclear workforce development via interdisciplinary pedagogies. By building nuclear education into a wide variety of disciplines, we argue, the nuclear workforce could become more resilient to ebbs and flows in energy markets and public opinion. Widening nuclear education beyond nuclear engineers could also reduce the isolation and compartmentalization that has limited the possibilities of nuclear technology. We show how growing and diversifying the overall nuclear workforce could create a wide variety of career opportunities outside STEM and enable greater specialization within STEM, since nuclear engineers and other specialists could be freed up to focus on technological and infrastructural innovations. We argue that interventions into nuclear education should establish new connections and applications of the nuclear sciences in diverse areas of expertise to develop a broad range of professionals who can contribute to a more stable nuclear workforce, bringing what we call “critical and creative nuclear energy literacies” to long-standing and systemic challenges around nuclear energy.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Test–retest reliability for a social discounting of personal information task

Increasing cybercrime rates means identifying potential victims is critically important. Social discounting tasks show that individuals share less personally identifying information as social distance increases. However, the test–retest reliability and uniqueness of this measure is unclear. The current study assessed social discounting for personally identifying information (SDPII), delay discounting, risk taking, and personality at two measurement waves 30 days apart for 64 undergraduate students. Test–retest reliability was statistically significant for the SDPII and all other measures, replicating previous studies. SDPII rates were not significantly correlated with other measures during both measurement waves, showing discriminant validity. SDPII rates were lower than those reported in a previous study but were still well described by a hyperbolic discounting function, suggesting replicability across studies. Furthermore, the high test–retest reliability, uniqueness, and replicability of the SDPII suggests that it may quantitatively identify cybercrime victimization. Future research should test which measure or combination of measures can accurately predict scam and cybercrime victimization to inform data-based interventions.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗