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At least 235 records · Page 13

Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models

Abstract. The effective radiative forcing, which includes the instantaneous forcing plus adjustments from the atmosphere and surface, has emerged as the key metric of evaluating human and natural influence on the climate. We evaluate effective radiative forcing and adjustments in 17 contemporary climate models that are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and have contributed to the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP). Present-day (2014) global-mean anthropogenic forcing relative to pre-industrial (1850) levels from climate models stands at 2.00 (±0.23) W m−2, comprised of 1.81 (±0.09) W m−2 from CO2, 1.08 (± 0.21) W m−2 from other well-mixed greenhouse gases, −1.01 (± 0.23) W m−2 from aerosols and −0.09 (±0.13) W m−2 from land use change. Quoted uncertainties are 1 standard deviation across model best estimates, and 90 % confidence in the reported forcings, due to internal variability, is typically within 0.1 W m−2. The majority of the remaining 0.21 W m−2 is likely to be from ozone. In most cases, the largest contributors to the spread in effective radiative forcing (ERF) is from the instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) and from cloud responses, particularly aerosol–cloud interactions to aerosol forcing. As determined in previous studies, cancellation of tropospheric and surface adjustments means that the stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing is approximately equal to ERF for greenhouse gas forcing but not for aerosols, and consequentially, not for the anthropogenic total. The spread of aerosol forcing ranges from −0.63 to −1.37 W m−2, exhibiting a less negative mean and narrower range compared to 10 CMIP5 models. The spread in 4×CO2 forcing has also narrowed in CMIP6 compared to 13 CMIP5 models. Aerosol forcing is uncorrelated with climate sensitivity. Therefore, there is no evidence to suggest that the increasing spread in climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models, particularly related to high-sensitivity models, is a consequence of a stronger negative present-day aerosol forcing and little evidence that modelling groups are systematically tuning climate sensitivity or aerosol forcing to recreate observed historical warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models

The effective radiative forcing, which includes the instantaneous forcing plus adjustments from the atmosphere and surface, has emerged as the key metric of evaluating human and natural influence on the climate. We evaluate effective radiative forcing and adjustments in 17 contemporary climate models that are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and have contributed to the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP). Present-day (2014) global-mean anthropogenic forcing relative to pre-industrial (1850) levels from climate models stands at 2.00 (±0.23) W/sq. m, comprised of 1.81 (±0.09) W/sq. m from CO2, 1.08 (± 0.21) W/sq. m from other well-mixed greenhouse gases, −1.01 (± 0.23) W/sq. m from aerosols and −0.09 (±0.13) W/sq. m from land use change. Quoted uncertainties are 1 standard deviation across model best estimates, and 90 % confidence in the reported forcings, due to internal variability, is typically within 0.1 W/sq. m. The majority of the remaining 0.21 W/sq. m is likely to be from ozone. In most cases, the largest contributors to the spread in effective radiative forcing (ERF) is from the instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) and from cloud responses, particularly aerosol–cloud interactions to aerosol forcing. As determined in previous studies, cancellation of tropospheric and surface adjustments means that the stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing is approximately equal to ERF for greenhouse gas forcing but not for aerosols, and consequentially, not for the anthropogenic total. The spread of aerosol forcing ranges from −0.63 to −1.37 W/sq. m, exhibiting a less negative mean and narrower range compared to 10 CMIP5 models. The spread in 4×CO2 forcing has also narrowed in CMIP6 compared to 13 CMIP5 models. Aerosol forcing is uncorrelated with climate sensitivity. Therefore, there is no evidence to suggest that the increasing spread in climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models, particularly related to high-sensitivity models, is a consequence of a stronger negative present-day aerosol forcing and little evidence that modelling groups are systematically tuning climate sensitivity or aerosol forcing to recreate observed historical warming.

effective radiative forcing↗

Molecular Dynamic Simulations of Interaction of an AFM Probe with the Surface of an SCN Sample

Molecular dynamic (MD) simulations is conducted in order to estimate forces of probe-substrate interaction in the Atomic Force Microscope (AFM). First a review of available molecular dynamic techniques is given. Implementation of MD simulation is based on an object-oriented code developed at the University of Delft. Modeling of the sample material - succinonitrile (SCN) - is based on the Lennard-Jones potentials. For the polystyrene probe an atomic interaction potential is used. Due to object-oriented structure of the code modification of an atomic interaction potential is straight forward. Calculation of melting temperature is used for validation of the code and of the interaction potentials. Various fitting parameters of the probe-substrate interaction potentials are considered, as potentials fitted to certain properties and temperature ranges may not be reliable for the others. This research provides theoretical foundation for an interpretation of actual measurements of an interaction forces using AFM.

Bune, Adris↗

Long-range interatomic forces.

Quadrupole-quadrupole interaction constant for Se and halogen diatomic molecules, discussing long range interatomic forces determination

Chang, T. Y.↗

Nonlinear Bubble Interactions in Acoustic Pressure Fields

The systems consisting of a two-phase mixture, as clouds of bubbles or drops, have shown many common features in their responses to different external force fields. One of particular interest is the effect of an unsteady pressure field applied to these systems, case in which the coupling of the vibrations induced in two neighboring components (two drops or two bubbles) may result in an interaction force between them. This behavior was explained by Bjerknes by postulating that every body that is moving in an accelerating fluid is subjected to a 'kinetic buoyancy' equal with the product of the acceleration of the fluid multiplied by the mass of the fluid displaced by the body. The external sound wave applied to a system of drops/bubbles triggers secondary sound waves from each component of the system. These secondary pressure fields integrated over the surface of the neighboring drop/bubble may result in a force additional to the effect of the primary sound wave on each component of the system. In certain conditions, the magnitude of these secondary forces may result in significant changes in the dynamics of each component, thus in the behavior of the entire system. In a system containing bubbles, the sound wave radiated by one bubble at the location of a neighboring one is dominated by the volume oscillation mode and its effects can be important for a large range of frequencies. The interaction forces in a system consisting of drops are much smaller than those consisting of bubbles. Therefore, as a first step towards the understanding of the drop-drop interaction subject to external pressure fluctuations, it is more convenient to study the bubble interactions. This paper presents experimental results and theoretical predictions concerning the interaction and the motion of two levitated air bubbles in water in the presence of an acoustic field at high frequencies (22-23 KHz).

Barbat, Tiberiu↗

Climate-eutrophication-anoxia interactions in Late Glacial Soppensee, Switzerland: Forcings, non-linear responses and recovery

Combined effects of climate warming and anthropogenic nutrient loadings lead to lake eutrophication and anoxia globally. Because of chemical feedbacks, lakes under multiple stressors often respond in non-linear ways. However, it remains unclear whether climate change alone can lead to non-linear lake responses in the absence of anthropogenic nutrient disturbances. Here, we investigate the interactions between climate variability, nutrient cycling and trophic state changes, mixing regimes, anoxia and related chemical feedback in a small kettle-hole lake in Switzerland during Late Glacial times (15.2–12.6 cal ka BP), a period known for high-amplitude climate change in pre-anthropogenic times. After its formation during Heinrich Stadial 1 (>15 cal ka BP), Soppensee was oligotrophic and well-mixed. Soppensee became eutrophic and developed anoxia at 14.25 cal ka BP. Phosphorus (P) was released from sediments through the reductive dissolution of Fe-oxyhydroxides, fuelling eutrophication. Eutrophication lagged the Bølling warming (14.65 cal ka BP) by 400 years, suggesting that rising temperatures were not the trigger for eutrophication. Instead, eutrophication responded non-linearly to forest closure (threshold at 76 % arboreal pollen AP), which shielded Soppensee from wind mixing, enhancing lake stratification, anoxia and P release, intensifying eutrophication. These conditions ended during the 200-years cold period of the Aegelsee Oscillation (GI-1d, ca. 14.0 cal ka BP) when the landscape regionally opened (AP<76 %); the lake became well-mixed, oxygenated and P was efficiently sequestered. Throughout the Allerød (13.9–12.8 cal ka BP), enhanced Fe input prompted diagenetic vivianite formation, sequestering P in sediments, naturally remediating lake eutrophication despite closed forests, warm temperatures, lake stratification and anoxia.

Environmental sciences↗

Nanomechanical squeezing: Toward quantum imaging with atomic force microscopy

Leveraging quantum effects in mechanical oscillators promises major advancements in nanometrology, including sensing and imaging. Microscopic cantilevers serve as versatile force sensors with broad applications in nanoscience, nanotechnology, and, increasingly, quantum sensing. Here, we theoretically model and investigate the quantum mechanics of cantilever probes in atomic force microscopy under conditions of reduced thermal noise. Specifically, our model captures the cantilever interaction with a surface via long-range attractive van der Waals forces and short-range repulsive-adhesive interactions described by the Derjaguin-Muller-Toporov model. We find that when the probe resides within the attractive interaction regime, a coherent state emerges, whereas, in the repulsive regime, a squeezed state forms for the cantilever's deformation state. Our calculations explain the functional role of interaction potentials in the quantum dynamics of macroscopic mechanical systems, which are proving useful in quantum sensing and information processing. The presented calculations can be extended to investigate other interaction forces relevant to atomic force microscopy.

Al-Sawai, Wael M. [Lamar Univ., Beaumont, TX (Unit↗

Integrated potential formulation of unsteady supersonic aerodynamics for interacting wings

A numerical integrated velocity potential method for the determination of unsteady aerodynamic forces on arbitrary interacting wings and tails in supersonic flow has been developed. Constant Mach number has been assumed throughout the flow field. Normalwash and sidewash integrals have been derived. The upwash integral remains to be derived. Singular integrals in the expressions for the velocity components have been evaluated in closed form. Lifting surfaces are represented by triangular elements defined by arbitrarily spaced characteristic lines and the true surface edges. The wake field is represented by rectangular strip elements. Velocity potential distributions and generalized aerodynamic coefficients have been compared.

Appa, K.↗

Effect of rotational and vibrational excitation on interaction of diatomic molecules

A general and computationally efficient approach evaluating the central-force potentials for interaction of rotationally and vibrationally excited molecules and molecular ions is presented. Examples of numerical calculations are given for interactions of diatomic systems (H2, N2 and O2) in ground electronic states. The approach can be applied in straightforward way to interaction of atoms and atomic ions with diatomic molecules in arbitrary rotational-vibrational states.

Kunc, Joseph A.↗

A numerical modeling study of the interaction between the tides and the circulation forced by high-latitude plasma convection

A spectral, time-varying thermospheric general circulation model has been used to study the nonlinear interaction at high latitudes between the tides propagating into the thermosphere from below and the circulation induced by magnetospheric forcing and in situ solar heating. The model is discrete in the vertical with 27 layers spaced by half a scale height. In the horizontal, the fields are expanded in a series of spherical harmonics using a triangular truncation at wave number 31, equivalent to a homogeneous global resolution with a minimum wavelength of 1270 km. A hypothetical uniform grid point model would require a horizontal spacing of 417 km to describe the same minimum wavelength. In the high-latitude F region the tides affect the dusk vortex of the neutral flow very little, but the dawn vortex is either suppressed or amplified dependent upon the universal time and tidal phase. In the E region neutral flow, both the dusk and dawn vortices are shifted in local time by the tides, again as a function of universal time and tidal phase. At dusk a nonlinear amplification of the sunward winds occurs for certain combinations of parameters, and at dawn the winds may be completely suppressed. Below 120 km altitude the magnetospheric forcing creates a single cyclonic vortex which is also sensitive to the high-latitude tidal structure.

Mikkelsen, I. S.↗

Teleoperator performance with varying force and visual feedback

An experimental study was conducted to determine the effects of various forms of visual and force feedback on human performance for several 'peg-in-hole'-type telemanipulation tasks. Each of six human test subjects used a master/slave manipulator during two experimental sessions. In one session the subjects performed the tasks with direct vision, where subtended visual angle, force feedback, task difficulty, and the interaction of subtended visual angle and force feedback made signigicant differences in task completion times. During the other session the tasks were performed using a video monitor for visual feedback, and video frame rate, force feedback, task difficulty and the interaction of frame rate and force feedback were found to make significant differences in task times. An analysis between the direct and video viewing environments showed that apart from subtended visual angle and reduced frame rate, the video medium itself did not significantly affect task times relative to direct viewing.

Massimino, Michael J.↗

Opportunistic Experiments to Constrain Aerosol Effective Radiative Forcing

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) are considered to be the most uncertain driver of present-day radiative forcing due to human activities. The non-linearity of cloud-state changes to aerosol perturbations make it challenging to attribute causality in observed relationships of aerosol radiative forcing. Using correlations to infer causality can be challenging when meteorological variability also drives both aerosol and cloud changes independently. Natural and anthropogenic aerosol perturbations from well defined sources provide ‘opportunistic experiments’ (also known as natural experiments) to investigate ACI in cases where causality may be more confidently inferred. These perturbations cover a wide range of locations and spatio-temporal scales, including point sources such as volcanic eruptions or industrial sources, plumes from biomass burning or forest fires, and tracks from individual ships or shipping corridors.We review the different experimental conditions and conduct a synthesis of the available satellite data sets and field campaigns to place these opportunistic experiments on a common footing, facilitating new insights and a clearer understanding of key uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing. Cloud albedo perturbations are strongly sensitive to background meteorological conditions. Strong liquid water path increases due to aerosol perturbations are largely ruled out by averaging across experiments. Opportunistic experiments have significantly improved process-level understanding of ACI, but it remains unclear how reliably the relationships found can be scaled to the global level, thus demonstrating a need for deeper investigation in order to improve assessments of aerosol radiative forcing and climate change.

Matthew W Christensen↗

Discrete element model for powder grain interactions under high compressive stress

A reduced order, nonlocal model is proposed for the contact force between initially spherical particles under compression. The model in effect provides the normal component of the interaction force between elements in the discrete element method (DEM). It is applicable to high relative density and large stress in powder compaction. It takes into account the mutual interaction between multiple points of contact, in contrast to the usual assumption in DEM of pair interactions. The mathematical form of the model is derived from a variational formulation that leads to the momentum balance for the forces on each grain. The model is calibrated mainly using detailed three dimensional peridynamic simulations of single grains under compressive loading by rigid plates that move radially with prescribed velocity. This calibration takes into account the large deformation and fracture of the grains. The interaction model also includes terms for the unloading behavior and adhesion. Finally, as validation, the model is applied to test data on the compaction of microcrystalline cellulose bulk powder.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Two-dimensional simulations of internal gravity waves in the radiation zones of intermediate-mass stars

Intermediate-mass main-sequence stars have large radiative envelopes overlying convective cores. This configuration allows internal gravity waves (IGWs) generated at the convective–radiative interface to propagate towards the stellar surface. The signatures of these waves can be observed in the photometric and spectroscopic data from stars. Here, we have studied the propagation of these IGWs using two-dimensional (2D) fully non-linear hydrodynamical simulations with realistic stellar reference states from the 1D stellar evolution code, Modules for Stellar Astrophysics (MESA). When a single wave is forced, we observe wave self-interaction. When two waves are forced, we observe non-linear interaction (i.e. triadic interaction) between these waves forming waves at different wavelengths and frequencies. When a spectrum of waves similar to that found in numerical simulations is forced, we find that the surface IGW frequency slope is consistent with recent observations. This power law is similar to that predicted by linear theory for the wave propagation, with small deviations that can be an effect of non-linearities. When the same generation spectrum is applied to 3 M ⊙ models at different stellar rotation and ages, the surface IGW spectrum slope is very similar to the generation spectrum slope.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Behaviors of Lunar Regolith Simulant Under Varying Gravitational Conditions

Understanding the behavior of regolith in varying gravity conditions is critical for space exploration and future missions. In this work, the gravity-driven hopper flow of lunar regolith simulant in different gravitational accelerations (terrestrial, lunar) is first observed experimentally. Numerical simulations (DEM) are then developed to understand the role which cohesive inter-particle forces play in such gravity-driven flow, using the theoretical framework of granular Bond number. Qualitative comparison between a terrestrial experiment and numerical simulation validated this framework. Following that, we numerically studied the dynamic behavior under varying gravitational conditions (from terrestrial to lunar to asteroid gravitational accelerations). We find that this behavior is extremely sensitive to the interplay of the gravity conditions and the attractive/cohesive forces among particles. The numerical and experimental results show that the complex interaction of these forces can drastically change the dynamics of the material producing effects relevant for variable gravity applications.

Soft Matter↗

The diurnal interaction between convection and peninsular-scale forcing over South Florida

One of the outstanding problems in modern meterology is that of describing in detail the manner in which larger scales of motion interact with, influence and are influenced by successively smaller scales of motion. The present investigation is concerned with a study of the diurnal evolution of convection, the interaction between the peninsular-scale convergence and convection, and the role of the feedback produced by the cloud-scale downdrafts in the maintenance of the convection. Attention is given to the analysis, the diurnal cycle of the network area-averaged divergence, convective-scale divergence, convective mass transports, and the peninsular scale divergence. The links established in the investigation between the large scale (peninsular), the mesoscale (network), and the convective scale (cloud) are found to be of fundamental importance to the understanding of the initiation, maintenance, and decay of deep precipitating convection and to its theoretical parameterization.

Cooper, H. J.↗

Gravity Wave Forcing of the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere: Mountain and Convective Waves Ascending Vertically (MaCWAVE)

The specific objectives of this research effort included the following: 1) Quantification of gravity wave propagation throughout the lower and middle atmosphere in order to define the roles of topographic and convective sources and filtering by mean and low-frequency winds in defining the wave field and wave fluxes at greater altitudes; 2) The influences of wave instability processes in constraining wave amplitudes and fluxes and generating turbulence and transport; 3) Gravity wave forcing of the mean circulation and thermal structure in the presence of variable motion fields and wave-wave interactions, since the mean forcing may be a small residual when wave interactions, anisotropy, and momentum and heat fluxes are large; 4) The statistical forcing and variability imposed on the thermosphere at greater altitudes by the strong wave forcing and interactions occurring in the MLTI.

Fritts, David C.↗