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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

Development of High Power Hall Thruster Systems to Enable the NASA Exploration Vision

The next phase of space exploration missions requires high power Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) systems for large-scale science missions and cargo transportation. Development is underway at Aerojet Rocketdyne on Hall thruster systems that are intended to bracket the needs of future NASA SEP missions in support of space exploration. The Advanced Electric Propulsion System (AEPS) program is developing and qualifying a 13.3kW Hall thruster system to be demonstrated on the Power and Propulsion Element (PPE), which is intended to be the first element of a Lunar Outpost Platform - Gateway (LOP-G). The NextSTEP program is integrating a nested Hall thruster into a 100kW system and testing it for 100 hours. These two programs will provide a path to efficient in-space propulsion that will allow NASA to transfer the large amounts of cargo that is needed to support human missions - first to the moon and then on to Mars. The Advanced Electric Propulsion System (AEPS) program is completing development, qualification and delivery of five flight 13.3kW EP systems to NASA. The flight AEPS system includes a magnetically shielded long-life Hall thruster, Power Processing Unit (PPU) and a Xenon Flow Controller (XFC). The Hall thruster, developed and demonstrated by NASA, operates at input powers up to 12.5kW while providing a specific impulse over an estimated 2800s at an input voltage of 600V. The power processor is designed to accommodate an input voltage range of 95-140V, consistent with operation beyond the orbit of Mars. The integrated system input power is continuously throttleable between 3 and 13.3kW. Component level testing of the EP String has begun with prototype hardware. The NextSTEP program is developing a 100kW Electric Propulsion (EP) system using a nested Hall thruster designed for powers up to 250kW, a modular power processor and a modular mass flow controller. While the program objective is to operate the integrated EP system continuously at 100kW for 100hrs to demonstrate thermal stability and support the development of system life time models, it builds on decades of experience with long-life Hall thrusters and the design is evolvable to a capability of 250kW. Design upgrades that demonstrate the 100kW EP system have been completed and tested. Aerojet Rocketdyne (AR) is excited to support NASA as it extends human reach into deep space and believes that these programs will provide the propulsion to make such missions affordable and sustainable. These systems provide NASA with a range of options to power its deep space transport vehicles. This paper presents the mission requirements for supporting the NASA exploration vision, as well as the status for the high power Hall thruster systems in development.

Jackson, Jerry↗
NASA NTRS2018

Development of High Power Hall Thruster Systems to Enable the NASA Exploration Vision

The next phase of space exploration missions requires high power Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) systems for large-scale science missions and cargo transportation. Development is underway at Aerojet Rocketdyne on Hall thruster systems that are intended to bracket the needs of future NASA SEP missions in support of space exploration. The Advanced Electric Propulsion System (AEPS) program is developing and qualifying a 13.3kW Hall thruster system to be demonstrated on the Power and Propulsion Element (PPE), which is intended to be the first element of a Lunar Outpost Platform - Gateway (LOP-G). The NextSTEP program is integrating a nested Hall thruster into a 100 kW system and testing it for 100 hours. These two programs will provide a path to efficient in-space propulsion that will allow NASA to transfer the large amounts of cargo that is needed to support human missions - first to the moon and then on to Mars. The Advanced Electric Propulsion System (AEPS) program is completing development, qualification and delivery of five flight 13.3kW EP systems to NASA. The flight AEPS system includes a magnetically shielded long-life Hall thruster, Power Processing Unit (PPU) and a Xenon Flow Controller (XFC). The Hall thruster, developed and demonstrated by NASA, operates at input powers up to 12.5 kW while providing a specific impulse over an estimated 2800s at an input voltage of 600V. The power processor is designed to accommodate an input voltage range of 95-140V, consistent with operation beyond the orbit of Mars. The integrated system input power is continuously throttleable between 3 and 13.3kW. Component level testing of the EP String has begun with prototype hardware. The NextSTEP program is developing a 100kW Electric Propulsion (EP) system using a nested Hall thruster designed for powers up to 250kW, a modular power processor and a modular mass flow controller. While the program objective is to operate the integrated EP system continuously at 100kW for 100 hours to demonstrate thermal stability and support the development of system life time models, it builds on decades of experience with long-life Hall thrusters and the design is evolvable to a capability of 250kW. Design upgrades that demonstrate the 100kW EP system have been completed and tested. Aerojet Rocketdyne is excited to support NASA as it extends human reach into deep space and believes that these programs will provide the propulsion to make such missions affordable and sustainable. These systems provide NASA with a range of options to power its deep space transport vehicles. This paper presents the mission requirements for supporting the NASA exploration vision, as well as the status for the high power Hall thruster systems in development.

Jackson, Jerry↗
DOE OSTI2021

Computational optical physical unclonable function

A system or method for encryption of data includes a light source, a random optical element and a light detection element. The light source is arranged to transmit an input data signal to the random optical element. The light source is incident on the random optical element such that the input data signal is randomly scattered by the random optical element to generate an image at on the detector disposed at an output of the random optical element. The image received by the detector is applied to a compressive sensing algorithm to generate a transfer function. The transfer function defines a relationship between the input data signal and the image to enable estimation and reconstruction of the input data signal.

Birch, Gabriel Carlisle↗
NASA NTRS2020

The AERONET Version 3 Aerosol Retrieval Algorithm, Associated Uncertainties and Comparisons to Version 2

The Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) Version 3 (V3) aerosol retrieval algorithm is described, which is based on the Version 2 (V2) algorithm with numerous updates. Comparisons of V3 aerosol retrievals to those of V2 are presented, along with a new approach to estimate uncertainties in many of the retrieved aerosol parameters. Changes in the V3 aerosol retrieval algorithm include (1) a new polarized radiative transfer code (RTC), which replaced the scalar RTC of V2, (2) detailed characterization of gas absorption by adding NO2 and H2O to specify total gas absorption in the atmospheric column, specification of vertical profiles of all the atmospheric species, (3) new bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) parameters for land sites adopted from the MODIS BRDF/Albedo product, (4) a new version of the extraterrestrial solar flux spectrum, and (5) a new temperature correction procedure of both direct Sun and sky radiance measurements. The potential effect of each change in V3 on single scattering albedo (SSA) retrievals was analyzed. The operational almucantar retrievals of V2 versus V3 were compared for four AERONET sites: GSFC, Mezaira, Mongu, and Kanpur. Analysis showed very good agreement in retrieved parameters of the size distributions. Comparisons of SSA retrievals for dust aerosols (Mezaira) showed a good agreement in 440 nm SSA, while for longer wavelengths V3 SSAs are systematically higher than those of V2, with the largest mean difference at 675 nm due to cumulative effects of both extraterrestrial solar flux and BRDF changes. For non-dust aerosols, the largest SSA deviation is at 675 nm due to differences in extraterrestrial solar flux spectrums used in each version. Further, the SSA 675 nm mean differences are very different for weakly (GSFC) and strongly (Mongu) absorbing aerosols, which is explained by the lower sensitivity to a bias in aerosol scattering optical depth by less absorbing aerosols. A new hybrid (HYB) sky radiance measurement scan is introduced and discussed. The HYB combines features of scans in two different planes to maximize the range of scattering angles and achieve scan symmetry, thereby allowing for cloud screening and spatial averaging, which is an advantage over the principal plane scan that lacks robust symmetry. We show that due to an extended range of scattering angles, HYB SSA retrievals for dust aerosols exhibit smaller variability with solar zenith angles (SZAs) than those of almucantar (ALM), which allows extension of HYB SSA retrievals to SZAs less than 50∘ to as small as 25∘. The comparison of SSA retrievals from closely time-matched HYB and ALM scans in the 50 to 75∘ SZA range showed good agreement with the differences below ∼0.005. We also present an approach to estimate retrieval uncertainties which utilizes the variability in retrieved parameters generated by perturbing both measurements and auxiliary input parameters as a proxy for retrieval uncertainty. The perturbations in measurements and auxiliary inputs are assumed as estimated biases in aerosol optical depth (AOD), radiometric calibration of sky radiances combined with solar spectral irradiance, and surface reflectance. For each set of Level 2 Sun/sky radiometer observations, 27 inputs corresponding to 27 combinations of biases were produced and separately inverted to generate the following statistics of the inversion results: average, standard deviation, minimum and maximum values. From these statistics, standard deviation (labeled U27) is used as a proxy for estimated uncertainty, and a lookup table (LUT) approach was implemented to reduce the computational time. The U27 climatological LUT was generated from the entire AERONET almucantar (1993–2018) and hybrid (2014–2018) scan databases by binning U27s in AOD (440 nm), Angström exponent (AE, 440–870 nm), and SSA (440, 675, 870, 1020 nm). Using this LUT approach, the uncertainty estimates U27 for each individual V3 Level 2 retrieval can be obtained by interpolation using the corresponding measured and inverted combination of AOD, AE, and SSA.

Aliaksandr Siniuk↗
NASA NTRS2008

Constellation Program Life-cycle Cost Analysis Model (LCAM)

The Constellation Program (CxP) is NASA's effort to replace the Space Shuttle, return humans to the moon, and prepare for a human mission to Mars. The major elements of the Constellation Lunar sortie design reference mission architecture are shown. Unlike the Apollo Program of the 1960's, affordability is a major concern of United States policy makers and NASA management. To measure Constellation affordability, a total ownership cost life-cycle parametric cost estimating capability is required. This capability is being developed by the Constellation Systems Engineering and Integration (SE&I) Directorate, and is called the Lifecycle Cost Analysis Model (LCAM). The requirements for LCAM are based on the need to have a parametric estimating capability in order to do top-level program analysis, evaluate design alternatives, and explore options for future systems. By estimating the total cost of ownership within the context of the planned Constellation budget, LCAM can provide Program and NASA management with the cost data necessary to identify the most affordable alternatives. LCAM is also a key component of the Integrated Program Model (IPM), an SE&I developed capability that combines parametric sizing tools with cost, schedule, and risk models to perform program analysis. LCAM is used in the generation of cost estimates for system level trades and analyses. It draws upon the legacy of previous architecture level cost models, such as the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) Architecture Cost Model (ARCOM) developed for Simulation Based Acquisition (SBA), and ATLAS. LCAM is used to support requirements and design trade studies by calculating changes in cost relative to a baseline option cost. Estimated costs are generally low fidelity to accommodate available input data and available cost estimating relationships (CERs). LCAM is capable of interfacing with the Integrated Program Model to provide the cost estimating capability for that suite of tools.

Prince, Andy↗
NASA NTRS1971

Information quality-control model

Model serves as graphic tool for estimating complete product objectives from limited input information, and is applied to cost estimations, product-quality evaluations, and effectiveness measurements for manpower resources allocation. Six product quality levels are defined.

Vincent, D. A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty-aware photovoltaic generation estimation through fusion of physics with harmonics information using Bayesian neural networks

We develop an aggregate photovoltaic generation estimation methodology that uses diverse inputs and can reason on its current input-dependent predictive uncertainty. Named PVPHEst, for PhotoVoltaic Physics- & Harmonics-driven Estimator, the resulting tool is intelligently weighing and fusing information carried by the output of physics models, harmonics, and line sensors, using Bayesian neural networks and related techniques aimed at solving machine learning problems with intrinsic uncertainty quantification. As each of the three input classes carries heterogeneous information that only sheds light on one facet of the estimation problem but its value can diminish in the face of diverse grid phenomena, PV-PHEst with its estimation and uncertainty reasoning capabilities perform a nontrivial and potentially mission-critical task of value to grid operators.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1978

Rotorcraft system identification techniques for handling qualities and stability and control evaluation

An integrated approach to rotorcraft system identification is described. This approach consists of sequential application of (1) data filtering to estimate states of the system and sensor errors, (2) model structure estimation to isolate significant model effects, and (3) parameter identification to quantify the coefficient of the model. An input design algorithm is described which can be used to design control inputs which maximize parameter estimation accuracy. Details of each aspect of the rotorcraft identification approach are given. Examples of both simulated and actual flight data processing are given to illustrate each phase of processing. The procedure is shown to provide means of calibrating sensor errors in flight data, quantifying high order state variable models from the flight data, and consequently computing related stability and control design models.

Hall, W. E., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1976

A comparison between conventional and LANDSAT based hydrologic modeling: The Four Mile Run case study

Models designed to support the hydrologic studies associated with urban water resources planning require input parameters that are defined in terms of land cover. Estimating the land cover is a difficult and expensive task when drainage areas larger than a few sq. km are involved. Conventional and LANDSAT based methods for estimating the land cover based input parameters required by hydrologic planning models were compared in a case study of the 50.5 sq. km (19.5 sq. mi) Four Mile Run Watershed in Virginia. Results of the study indicate that the LANDSAT based approach is highly cost effective for planning model studies. The conventional approach to define inputs was based on 1:3600 aerial photos, required 110 man-days and a total cost of $14,000. The LANDSAT based approach required 6.9 man-days and cost $2,350. The conventional and LANDSAT based models gave similar results relative to discharges and estimated annual damages expected from no flood control, channelization, and detention storage alternatives.

Ragan, R. M.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating the Potential and Challenges of an Uncertainty Quantification Method for Long Short–Term Memory Models for Soil Moisture Predictions

Recently, recurrent deep networks have shown promise to harness newly available satellite–sensed data for long–term soil moisture projections. However, to be useful in forecasting, deep networks must also provide uncertainty estimates. Here we evaluated Monte Carlo dropout with an input–dependent data noise term (MCD+N), an efficient uncertainty estimation framework originally developed in computer vision, for hydrologic time series predictions. MCD+N simultaneously estimates a heteroscedastic input–dependent data noise term (a trained error model attributable to observational noise) and a network weight uncertainty term (attributable to insufficiently constrained model parameters). Although MCD+N has appealing features, many heuristic approximations were employed during its derivation, and rigorous evaluations and evidence of its asserted capability to detect dissimilarity were lacking. To address this, we provided an in–depth evaluation of the scheme's potential and limitations. We showed that for reproducing soil moisture dynamics recorded by the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, MCD+N indeed gave a good estimate of predictive error, provided that we tuned a hyperparameter and used a representative training data set. The input–dependent term responded strongly to observational noise, while the model term clearly acted as a detector for physiographic dissimilarity from the training data, behaving as intended. However, when the training and test data were characteristically different, the input–dependent term could be misled, undermining its reliability. Additionally, due to the data–driven nature of the model, data noise also influences network weight uncertainty, and therefore the two uncertainty terms are correlated. Altogether, this approach has promise, but care is needed to interpret the results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1974

SICLOPS - A system of computer programs for rectified mapping of airborne scanner imagery

This paper describes SICLOPS, a system of computer programs, which has been developed to perform geometrically corrected line-by-line mapping of airborne multispectral scanner data to ground coordinates and to estimate ground areas. As inputs, SICLOPS accepts aircraft attitude and positional information furnished by ancillary aircraft equipment, plus ground truth information giving the location, in map grid coordinates, of a number of recognizable landmarks on the ground. The geometric correction and mapping procedure locates the scan lines, or the pixels on each line, in terms of map grid coordinates. The area estimation procedure gives ground area for each pixel or for a predesignated parcel specified in map grid coordinates. The results of exercising the system with simulated data showed the uncorrected video and corrected imagery and produced area estimates accurate to better than 99.7%. Real input data, though prepared, have not yet been processed by the system.

Spencer, M. M.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Review of a Draft - Avoiding the Impossible: Re-focusing a Non-Feasible Mission 2-Hrs into a 3-Day Engineering Session

Concurrent engineering offers a great many benefits to engineers and mission designers throughout the world of aerospace. The only downside of concurrent engineering, and this is somewhat unavoidable, is that you don’t know the results of a design session until the end when it is completed. Usually, this is not a problem – you wouldn’t start building a spacecraft before the design is finished. However, within mass and cost constrained systems, you may end up with a final design that although technically sound – is not feasible due to mass or cost limits. Employing in-session mass and cost models with flexible inputs that refine their estimates and variance as more detailed information comes in throughout a design session allows major design changes to be made when the probability of breaching a mass or cost cap exceeds a threshold level. This enables mission designers to re-focus the study, and avoid spending 3-days with 15 engineers designing a non-feasible mission. By understanding key correlations and nested relationships within mass or cost, and specifically mass or cost allocations per mission element by mission type, it’s possible to get flexible-input, statistically based mass and cost estimates very early in the design process. Baseline models are seeded using mission characteristics and general parameters (outer planetary orbiter-probe mission, $500M cost cap for example) to provide a rough estimate of the expected mass or cost. As information gets solidified during the session, it gets added to the model and the estimates are updated. Continuing the orbiter-probe mission example, modeling probe heat shield cost as a percent of total probe cost, and probe cost as a percent of total flight system cost, and total flight system cost as a percent of total mission cost allows a design team to roll-up solidified information to estimate the probability of fitting within a mass or cost constraint early in a concurrent design session. When only the heat shield cost is known, the variance of the final estimate is higher, whereas when the full probe gets defined, naturally, the variance of the estimate decreases. A methodology, model, verification and demo implementation for cost limit breach are presented.

Hihn, Jairus M.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Spectral estimation of green leaf area index of oats

Green leaf area index (LAI) is a measure of vegetative growth and development and is frequently used as an input parameter in yield estimation and evapotranspiration models. Extensive destructive sampling is usually required to achieve accurate estimates of green LAI in natural situations. In this investigation, a statistical modeling approach was used to predict the green LAI of oats from bidirectional reflectance data collected with multiband radiometers. Stepwise multiple regression models based on two sets of spectral reflectance factors accounted for 73 percent and 65 percent of the variance in green LAI of oats. Exponential models of spectral data transformations of greenness, normalized difference, and near-infrared/red ratio accounted for more of the variance in green LAI than the multiple regression models.

Best, R. G.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Apparatus for damping operator induced oscillations of a controlled system

Flight control-related apparatus for damping operator induced oscillations of a controlled system responding to an operator controlled signal is described. The device utilizes a lag-lead filter for frequency and amplitude estimation of the control input, and a rectification and smoothing filter for producing a signal proportional to the absolute value of the frequency and amplitude estimate for use in suppression of the control system output signal. In one embodiment, this is accomplished by computing a correction signal in a correction generating section. In a second embodiment, a second rectification and smoothing filter produces a signal proportional to the absolute value of the controlled input signal. A ratio of the outputs of the first and second rectification and smoothing filters is then used in a generator to generate a gain factor k sub q for the control system to reduce the gain of the output signal of the control system, thereby to provide a damped control output signal without rate limiting the controlled element.

Edwards, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Process-Based Cost Estimation for Ramjet/Scramjet Engines

Process-based cost estimation plays a key role in effecting cultural change that integrates distributed science, technology and engineering teams to rapidly create innovative and affordable products. Working together, NASA Glenn Research Center and Boeing Canoga Park have developed a methodology of process-based cost estimation bridging the methodologies of high-level parametric models and detailed bottoms-up estimation. The NASA GRC/Boeing CP process-based cost model provides a probabilistic structure of layered cost drivers. High-level inputs characterize mission requirements, system performance, and relevant economic factors. Design alternatives are extracted from a standard, product-specific work breakdown structure to pre-load lower-level cost driver inputs and generate the cost-risk analysis. As product design progresses and matures the lower level more detailed cost drivers can be re-accessed and the projected variation of input values narrowed, thereby generating a progressively more accurate estimate of cost-risk. Incorporated into the process-based cost model are techniques for decision analysis, specifically, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and functional utility analysis. Design alternatives may then be evaluated not just on cost-risk, but also user defined performance and schedule criteria. This implementation of full-trade study support contributes significantly to the realization of the integrated development environment. The process-based cost estimation model generates development and manufacturing cost estimates. The development team plans to expand the manufacturing process base from approximately 80 manufacturing processes to over 250 processes. Operation and support cost modeling is also envisioned. Process-based estimation considers the materials, resources, and processes in establishing cost-risk and rather depending on weight as an input, actually estimates weight along with cost and schedule.

Singh, Brijendra↗
NASA NTRS1998

Comparison of Globally Complete Versions of GPCP and CMAP Monthly Precipitation Analyses

In this study two global observational precipitation products, namely the Global Precipitation Climatology Project's (GPCP) community data set and CPC's Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), are compared on global to regional scales in the context of the different satellite and gauge data inputs and merger techniques. The average annual global precipitation rates, calculated from data common in regions/times to both GPCP and CMAP, are similar for the two. However, CMAP is larger than GPCP in the tropics because: (1) CMAP values in the tropics are adjusted month-by month to atoll gauge data in the West Pacific, which are greater than any satellite observations used; and (2) CMAP is produced from a linear combination of data inputs, which tends to give higher values than the microwave emission estimates alone to which the inputs are adjusted in the GPCP merger over the ocean. The CMAP month-to-month adjustment to the atolls also appears to introduce temporal variations throughout the tropics which are not detected by satellite-only products. On the other hand, GPCP is larger than CMAP in the high-latitude oceans, where CMAP includes the scattering based microwave estimates which are consistently smaller than the emission estimates used in both techniques. Also, in the polar regions GPCP transitions from the emission microwave estimates to the larger TOVS-based estimates. Finally, in high-latitude land areas GPCP can be significantly larger than CMAP because GPCP attempts to correct the gauge estimates for errors due to wind loss effects.

Curtis, Scott↗
NASA NTRS1989

A two axis skin friction balance nulling circuit using an optimal observer

An investigation is conducted of application of optimal observer-based control laws derived using both pole-placement techniques and optimal linear regulator theory. Although a pole-placement-derived control law with optimal observer provides fast response and excellent noise rejection, its observer requires an electrical input proportional to the unknown skin friction force, which is unavailable. To overcome this limitation, an optimal linear regulator design is proposed which estimates the unknown force input and provides excellent noise rejection, at the expense, however, of significantly slower transient response.

Tripp, John S.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Ocean Primary Production Estimates from Terra MODIS and Their Dependency on Satellite Chlorophyll Alpha Algorithms

Simplistic models relating global satellite ocean color, temperature, and light to ocean net primary production (ONPP) are sensitive to the accuracy and limitations of the satellite estimate of chlorophyll and other input fields, as well as the primary productivity model. The standard MODIS ONPP product uses the new semi-analytic chlorophyll algorithm as its input for two ONPP indexes. The three primary MODIS chlorophyll Q estimates from MODIS, as well as the SeaWiFS 4 chlorophyll product, were used to assess global and regional performance in estimating ONPP for the full mission, but concentrating on 2001. The two standard ONPP algorithms were examined with 8-day and 39 kilometer resolution to quantify chlorophyll algorithm dependency of ONPP. Ancillary data (MLD from FNMOC, MODIS SSTD1, and PAR from the GSFC DAO) were identical. The standard MODIS ONPP estimates for annual production in 2001 was 59 and 58 GT C for the two ONPP algorithms. Differences in ONPP using alternate chlorophylls were on the order of 10% for global annual ONPP, but ranged to 100% regionally. On all scales the differences in ONPP were smaller between MODIS and SeaWiFS than between ONPP models, or among chlorophyll algorithms within MODIS. Largest regional ONPP differences were found in the Southern Ocean (SO). In the SO, application of the semi-analytic chlorophyll resulted in not only a magnitude difference in ONPP (2x), but also a temporal shift in the time of maximum production compared to empirical algorithms when summed over standard oceanic areas. The resulting increase in global ONPP (6-7 GT) is supported by better performance of the semi-analytic chlorophyll in the SO and other high chlorophyll regions. The differences are significant in terms of understanding regional differences and dynamics of ocean carbon transformations.

Essias, Wayne E.↗