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NASA NTRS1988

AVIRIS performance during the 1987 flight season: An AVIRIS project assessment and summary of the NASA-sponsored performance evaluation

Results are presented of the assessment of AVIRIS performance during the 1987 flight season by the AVIRIS project and the earth scientists who were chartered by NASA to conduct an independent data quality and sensor performance evaluation. The AVIRIS evaluation program began in late June 1987 with the sensor meeting most of its design requirements except for signal-to-noise ratio in the fourth spectrometer, which was about half of the required level. Several events related to parts failures and design flaws further reduced sensor performance over the flight season. Substantial agreement was found between the assessments by the project and the independent investigators of the effects of these various factors. A summary of the engineering work that is being done to raise AVIRIS performance to its required level is given. In spite of degrading data quality over the flight season, several exciting scientific results were obtained from the data. These include the mapping of the spatial variation of atmospheric precipitable water, detection of environmentally-induced shifts in the spectral red edge of stressed vegetation, detection of spectral features related to pigment, leaf water and ligno-cellulose absorptions in plants, and the identification of many diagnostic mineral absorption features in a variety of geological settings.

Vane, Gregg↗

NASA NTRS2021

Independent Market Study: Commercial Hypersonic Transportation

In support of NASA’s evaluation of its future research thrusts for its hypersonics program, NASA commissioned independent studies of the market for commercial hypersonic transportation. SAIC and BryceTech (formerly Bryce Space and Technology) were awarded one of these independent studies to assist NASA in better understanding: (1) the passenger demand for high-speed aviation travel; (2) the pressures on the business case for developing and operating a hypersonic aircraft for the commercial aviation market; and (3) the non-technical (i.e., societal) barriers and challenges, including the steps NASA and the Government could take to overcome those barriers and challenges. Our approach to addressing these three tasks for NASA included modeling future demand and future business operations, considering global air transportation at speeds of Mach 2 to Mach 7. The team forecast premium air travel demand through 2060 and assessed the willingness of passengers of different income and wealth levels to pay to save time on flights between 800 city pairs. With the total addressable market defined, we examined industry-level business case viability for several aircraft speed and range cases. Considering operating and manufacturing costs for routes that could be serviced profitably, as well as typical profitability targets for the aviation industry, we quantified the level of RDT&E funding available to support each business case.

hypersonic aircraft↗

DOE OSTI2023

Seasonal forecasting skill for the High Mountain Asia region in the Goddard Earth Observing System

Seasonal variability of the global hydrologic cycle directly impacts human activities, including hazard assessment and mitigation, agricultural decisions, and water resources management. This is particularly true across the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, where availability of water resources can change depending on local seasonality of the hydrologic cycle. Forecasting the atmospheric states and surface conditions, including hydrometeorologically relevant variables, at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) lead times of weeks to months is an area of active research and development. NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) S2S prediction system has been developed with this research goal in mind. Here, we benchmark the forecast skill of GEOS-S2S (version 2) hydrometeorological forecasts at 1–3-month lead times in the HMA region, including a portion of the Indian subcontinent, during the retrospective forecast period, 1981–2016. To assess forecast skill, we evaluate 2 m air temperature, total precipitation, fractional snow cover, snow water equivalent, surface soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage forecasts against the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and independent reanalysis data, satellite observations, and data fusion products. Anomaly correlation is highest when the forecasts are evaluated against MERRA-2 and particularly in variables with long memory in the climate system, likely due to the similar initial conditions and model architecture used in GEOS-S2S and MERRA-2. When compared to MERRA-2, results for the 1-month forecast skill range from an anomaly correlation of R anom =0.18 for precipitation to R anom =0.62 for soil moisture. Anomaly correlations are consistently lower when forecasts are evaluated against independent observations; results for the 1-month forecast skill range from R anom =0.13 for snow water equivalent to R anom =0.24 for fractional snow cover. We find that, generally, hydrometeorological forecast skill is dependent on the forecast lead time, the memory of the variable within the physical system, and the validation dataset used. Overall, these results benchmark the GEOS-S2S system's ability to forecast HMA hydrometeorology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2023

Seasonal Forecasting Skill for the High Mountain Asia Region in the Goddard Earth Observing System

Seasonal variability of the global hydrologic cycle directly impacts human activities, including hazard assessment and mitigation, agricultural decisions, and water resources management. This is particularly true across the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, where availability of water resources can change depending on local seasonality of the hydrologic cycle. Forecasting the atmospheric states and surface conditions, including hydrometeorological relevant variables, at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) lead times of weeks-to-months is an area of active research and development. NASA’s 15 Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) S2S prediction system has been developed with this research goal in mind. Here, we benchmark the forecast skill of GEOS-S2S (version 2) hydrometeorological forecasts at 1-3 month lead times in the HMA region, including a portion of the Indian Subcontinent, during the retrospective forecast period, 1981-2016. To assess forecast skill, we evaluate 2-m air temperature, total precipitation, fractional snow cover, snow water equivalent, surface soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage forecasts against the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and 20 Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and independent reanalysis data, satellite observations, and data fusion products. Anomaly correlation is highest when the forecasts are evaluated against MERRA-2 and particularly in variables with long memory in the climate system, likely due to similar initial conditions and model architecture used in GEOS-S2S and MERRA-2. When compared to MERRA-2, results for the 1-month forecast skill range from anomaly correlation of R anom =0.18 for precipitation to R anom =0.62 for soil moisture. Anomaly correlations are consistently lower when forecasts are 25 evaluated against independent observations; results for the 1-month forecast skill range from R anom =0.13 for snow water equivalent to R anom =0.24 for fractional snow cover. We find that, generally, hydrometeorological forecast skill is dependent on the forecast lead time, the memory of the variable within the physical system, and the validation dataset used. Overall, these results benchmark the GEOS-S2S system’s ability to forecast HMA hydrometeorology.

GEOS↗

NASA NTRS2006

Radiometric Calibration Assessment of Commercial High Spatial Resolution Multispectral Image Products

Radiometric calibration of commercial imaging satellite products is required to ensure that science and application communities can better understand their properties. Inaccurate radiometric calibrations can lead to erroneous decisions and invalid conclusions and can limit intercomparisons with other systems. To address this calibration need, satellite at-sensor radiance values were compared to those estimated by each independent team member to determine the sensor's radiometric accuracy. The combined results of this evaluation provide the user community with an independent assessment of these commercially available high spatial resolution sensors' absolute calibration values.

Holekamp, Kara↗

NASA NTRS2006

Radiometric Characterization of the IKONOS, QuickBird, and OrbView-3 Sensors

Holekamp, Kara↗

DOE OSTI2020

Independent Review of Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant Freon Release Authorized Limits and Evaluation of Corresponding Radiological Doses

The Portsmouth/Paducah Project Office (PPPO) proposes to use the American National Standard Institute (ANSI)/Health Physics Society (HPS) N13.12 (ANSI 2013) volumetric screening levels as Authorized Limits (ALs) for the release of cryofluorane R-114 (Freon) at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PGDP) in Paducah, Kentucky. A review of the proposed ALs document indicated that potential exposure scenarios from the release of Freon are adequately discussed therein. However, questions arose regarding the assumptions made for the ANSI N13.12 clearance values, and whether or not all pathway doses were adequately considered in the Authorized Limits Request. For example, PPPO used the inverse square rule to estimate dose to the truck driver. A more appropriate evaluation would have considered the material as a cylindrical source for this pathway. In addition, the inverse square rule was inadequately applied to the inhalation and ingestion pathways. Furthermore, while the ANSI N13.12 volumetric clearance values are used in the ALs, questions arose concerning whether the values are appropriate for materials of greater than 1 metric ton, and whether or not the ANSI N13.12 standard could be used for liquids that are sent to an incinerator. For these reasons, dose modeling was conducted to demonstrate that using ANSI/HPS N13.12 screening levels as ALs for release of PGDP Freon meets the dose criteria set in U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Order 458.1. This report provides a bounding dose analysis using scenarios described in PPPO document. Realistic parameters, such as the incinerator characteristics data, are used when available.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

NASA NTRS2017

Testing Extensions of Our Quantitative Daily of San Joaquin Wintertime Aerosols Using MAIAC and Meteorology Without Transport/Transformation Assumptions

The Western US and many regions globally present daunting difficulties in understanding and mapping PM2.5 episodes. We evaluate extensions of a method independent of source-description and transport/transformation. These regions suffer frequent few-day episodes due to shallow mixing; low satellite AOT and bright surfaces complicate the description. Nevertheless, we expect residual errors in our maps of less than 8 ug/m^3 in episodes reaching 60-100 ug/m^3; maps which detail pollution from Interstate 5. Our current success is due to use of physically meaningful functions of MODIS-MAIAC-derived AOD, afternoon mixed-layer height, and relative humidity for a basin in which the latter are correlated. A mixed-effects model then describes a daily AOT-to-PM2.5 relationship. (Note: in other published mixed-effects models, AOT contributes minimally. We seek to extend on these to develop useful estimation methods for similar situations. We evaluate existing but more spotty information on size distribution (AERONET, MISR, MAIA, CALIPSO, other remote sensing). We also describe the usefulness of an equivalent mixing depth for water vapor vs meteorological boundary layer height. Each has virtues and limitations. Finally, we begin to evaluate methods for removing the complications due to detached but polluted layers (which don't mix to the surface) using geographical, meteorological, and remotely sensed data.

Chatfield, Robert B.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Waiting in Queue: A Historical Evaluation of Interconnection Policy

Both states and Independent System Operators (ISO)/Regional Transmission Organizations (RTO) have struggled with long wait times in interconnection queues. As a result, numerous reforms have been proposed to expedite the connection of new resources to the grid. This paper conducts a quantitative analysis of two of these policies: one providing detail hosting capacity information in Massachusetts, the other experimenting with cost allocation in New York. We find that both policies led to a statistically significant decrease in the times projects spend pending in interconnection queues, with New York seeing a small drop in days pending, and Massachusetts seeing a much larger one. We also include an analysis of how energy storage is impacts queue time in these states. These results can help inform regulators who are weighing reforms to interconnection policies, with the goal of reducing wait times.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2018

Quantitative Daily Maps of PM 2.5 Episodes for California and Other Regions: Satellite Column Water and Optical Depth as Allied Tracers of Dilution

The Western US and many regions globally present daunting difficulties in understanding PM 2.5 episodes. We evaluate extensions of a method independent of modeled source-description and transport/transformation and using several satellite remote sensing products from imaging spectrometers. The San Joaquin Valley (SJV) especially suffers few-day episodes due to shallow mixing; PM 2.5 retrieval suffers low satellite AOT (Aerosol Optical Thickness) and bright surfaces.Nevertheless, we find residual errors in our maps of of typically 5-8 micrograms per cubic meter. Episodes in the Valley reaching 60-100 micrograms per cubic meter. These maps detail pollution from Interstate 5 at the scale of a few kilometers. The maps are based on NASA's MODerate resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) data at circa 1 kilometer as processed with the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction. The Bay Area Air Quality Management District has requested that we test our methods in their challenging environment characterized by multiple sub-basins defined by complex topography. Our tests suggest that nearly similar precision may be expected for wintertime conditions with high PM 2.5 . We note difficulties when measured PM 2.5 is less than 8-10 micrograms per cubic meter, but good relative precision when PM 2.5 rises above 20; i.e. in episodes of concern for morbidity and mortality. Our method stresses physically meaningful functions of MODIS-MAIAC (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction)-derived AOD (Aerosol Optical Depth) and total water vapor column. A mixed-effects statistical model exploiting existing station data works powerfully to allow us daily AOT-to-PM 2.5 relationships that allow a calibration of the map. In those cases where water vapor and particles have generally similar surface sources, using the ratio of AOT / Column_water can improve the daily calibrations so as to reach our quoted precision. We briefly present some cartoon idealizations that explain this success and also the likely reasons that our mixed effects model (or "daily calibration") works; also when it should not work. The combined satellite/mixed-effects model works best for wintertime San Joaquin Valley episodes, where the meteorology of particle and H2O(v) dilution is quite appropriate. We extended and tested the methodology (a) for the Bay Area wintertime situations and (b) for smoke plume events (e.g. the October 2017 fire events of the Sonoma area). Our SJV work was evaluated using NASA's DISCOVER-AQ (Deriving Information on Surface conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality) airborne measurements, and by season- long measurements in Fresno. If the composition and size distribution of the aerosols can be assessed for the regions we describe, retrievals should have improved accuracy.

Chatfield, Robert B.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Kramers' Restricted Closed Shell CCSD Theory

A Kramers' restricted version of the closed shell coupled cluster singles doubles theory is presented. The theory may be used in conjunction with 2 or 4-component relativistic reference wavefunctions. The intrinsic treatment of the spin-orbit coupling doubles the number of independent quantities (amplitudes and integrals) relative to a spin-independent formalism. The number of operations required to evaluate the equations is four times larger than in the optimal spin-independent closed shell formalism.

Visscher, Lucas↗

DOE OSTI2024

On Gibbs Equilibrium and Hillert Nonequilibrium Thermodynamics

During his time at Royal Institute of Technology (Kungliga Tekniska högskolan) in Sweden, the present author learned nonequilibrium thermodynamics from Mats Hillert. The key concepts are the separation of internal and external variables of a system and the definitions of potentials and molar quantities. In equilibrium thermodynamics derived by Gibbs, the internal variables are not independent and can be fully evaluated from given external variables. While irreversible thermodynamics led by Onsager focuses on internal variables though often mixed with external variables. Hillert integrated them together by first emphasizing their differences and then examining their connections. His philosophy was reflected by the title of his book “Phase Equilibria, Phase Diagrams and Phase Transformations” that puts equilibrium, nonequilibrium, and internal processes on equal footing. Here, in the present paper honoring Hillert, the present author reflects his experiences with Hillert and his work in last 40 years and expresses his gratitude for all the wisdom and support from him in terms of “Hillert nonequilibrium thermodynamics” and discusses some recent topics that the present author has been working on.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-throughput validation of phase formability and simulation accuracy of Cantor alloys

High-throughput methods enable accelerated discovery of novel materials in complex systems such as high-entropy alloys, which exhibit intricate phase stability across vast compositional spaces. Computational approaches, including Density Functional Theory (DFT) and calculation of phase diagrams (CALPHAD), facilitate screening of phase formability as a function of composition and temperature. However, the integration of computational predictions with experimental validation remains challenging in high-throughput studies. In this work, we introduce a quantitative confidence metric to assess the agreement between predictions and experimental observations, providing a quantitative measure of the confidence of machine learning models trained on either DFT or CALPHAD input in accounting for experimental evidence. The experimental dataset was generated via high-throughput in-situ synchrotron X-ray diffraction on compositionally varied FeNiMnCr alloy libraries, heated from room temperature to ~1000 °C. Agreement between the observed and predicted phases was evaluated using either temperature-independent phase classification or a model that incorporates a temperature-dependent probability of phase formation. This integrated approach demonstrates where strong overall agreement between computation and experiment exists, while also identifying key discrepancies, particularly in FCC/BCC predictions at Mn-rich regions to inform future model refinement.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Verification of the sensitivity and uncertainty-based criticality safety validation techniques: ORNL’s SCALE case study

The use of sensitivity and uncertainty-based techniques has been well-developed in the neutronic community for criticality safety applications. Sensitivity techniques calculate the first-order relative variations in keff due to relative cross-section variations by isotope, reaction type, and incident neutron energy. The result is a vector of sensitivity coefficients which is folded with prior cross-section uncertainties to calculate the so-called similarity indices. Similarity indices are integral quantities which serve as useful mathematical measures for assessing the relevance of existing or new experiments to given application conditions, representing design systems for which the models are to be validated. Despite their importance for a wide range of validation activities, the peer-reviewed literature is non-existent on the development of rigorous verification analysis for their calculated values. Thus, this manuscript proposes a simple non-intrusive method to calculate similarity indices, serving as an independent verification tool for their evaluation. The manuscript derives the theoretical basis for the proposed verification analysis. Next, the verification analysis is applied to the ORNL’s SCALE code suite which employs adjoint-based methods to calculate similarity indices. Numerical experiments using a number of well-known benchmark experiments are employed to verify the calculation of the similarity indices.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Northern High Latitude Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) Using Carbonyl Sulfide (OCS)

The northern high latitude (NHL, 40°N to 90°N) is where the second peak region of gross primary productivity (GPP) other than the tropics. The summer NHL GPP is about 80% of the tropical peak, but both regions are still highly uncertain. Carbonyl sulfide (OCS) provides an important proxy for photosynthetic carbon uptake. Here we optimize the OCS plant uptake fluxes across the NHL by fitting atmospheric concentration simulation with the GEOS-CHEM global transport model to the aircraft profiles acquired over Alaska during NASA's Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (2012–2015). We use the empirical biome-specific linear relationship between OCS plant uptake flux and GPP to derive the six plant uptake OCS fluxes from different GPP data. Such GPP-based fluxes are used to drive the concentration simulations. We evaluate the simulations against the independent observations at two ground sites of Alaska. The optimized OCS fluxes suggest the NHL plant uptake OCS flux of -247 Gg S year -1 , about 25% stronger than the ensemble mean of the six GPP-based OCS fluxes. GPP-based OCS fluxes systematically underestimate the peak growing season across the NHL, while a subset of models predict early start of season in Alaska, consistent with previous studies of net ecosystem exchange. The OCS optimized GPP of 34 PgC yr -1 for NHL is also about 25% more than the ensembles mean from six GPP data. Further work is needed to fully understand the environmental and biotic drivers and quantify their rate of photosynthetic carbon uptake in Arctic ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Intermediate scattering functions of a rigid body monoclonal antibody protein in solution studied by dissipative particle dynamic simulation

In the past decade, there was increased research interest in studying internal motions of flexible proteins in solution using Neutron Spin Echo (NSE) as NSE can simultaneously probe the dynamics at the length and time scales comparable to protein domain motions. However, the collective intermediate scattering function (ISF) measured by NSE has the contributions from translational, rotational, and internal motions, which are rather complicated to be separated. Widely used NSE theories to interpret experimental data usually assume that the translational and rotational motions of a rigid particle are decoupled and independent to each other. To evaluate the accuracy of this approximation for monoclonal antibody (mAb) proteins in solution, dissipative particle dynamic computer simulation is used here to simulate a rigid-body mAb for up to about 200 ns. The total ISF together with the ISFs due to only the translational and rotational motions as well as their corresponding effective diffusion coefficients is calculated. The aforementioned approximation introduces appreciable errors to the calculated effective diffusion coefficients and the ISFs. For the effective diffusion coefficient, the error introduced by this approximation can be as large as about 10% even though the overall agreement is considered reasonable. Thus, we need to be cautious when interpreting the data with a small signal change. In addition, the accuracy of the calculated ISFs due to the finite computer simulation time is also discussed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Occasions for laughter and dementia risk: Findings from a six‐year cohort study

Aim Currently, there is little evidence on the relationship between laughter and the risk of dementia, and since laughter is mainly a social behavior, we aimed to examine the association between various occasions for laughter and the risk of dementia in Japanese older adults. Methods We draw upon 6‐year follow‐up data from the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study, including 12 165 independent older adults aged 65 years or over. Occasions for laughter were assessed using a questionnaire, while dementia was diagnosed using the standardized dementia scale of the long‐term care insurance system in Japan. Cox proportional hazards models were estimated, yielding hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results The multivariable hazard ratio of dementia incidence for all participants in the groups for high versus low variety of occasions for laughter was 0.84 (95% CI: 0.72–0.98, P for trend <0.001). A greater variety of occasions for laughter was associated with a lower risk of dementia 0.78 (95% CI: 0.63–0.96, P for trend <0.001) among women, but was less pronounced for men, with significant associations only for the medium group. Laughing during conversations with friends, communicating with children or grandchildren, and listening to the radio were primarily associated with decreased risk. Conclusion A greater variety of laughter occasions in individual and social settings was associated with a reduced risk of dementia. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2022; 22: 392–398 .

Wang, Yu↗

DOE OSTI2021

Microcoleus (Cyanobacteria) form watershed-wide populations without strong gradients in population structure

The relative importance of separation by distance and by environment to population genetic diversity can be conveniently tested in river networks, where these two drivers are often independently distributed over space. To evaluate the importance of dispersal and environmental conditions in shaping microbial population structures, we performed genome-resolved metagenomic analyses of benthic Microcoleus -dominated cyanobacterial mats collected in the Eel and Russian River networks (California, USA). The 64 Microcoleus genomes were clustered into three species that shared >96.5% average nucleotide identity (ANI). Most mats were dominated by one strain, but minor alleles within mats were often shared, even over large spatial distances (>300 km). Within the most common Microcoleus species, the ANI between the dominant strains within mats decreased with increasing spatial separation. However, over shorter spatial distances (tens of kilometres), mats from different subwatersheds had lower ANI than mats from the same subwatershed, suggesting that at shorter spatial distances environmental differences between subwatersheds in factors like canopy cover, conductivity, and mean annual temperature decreases ANI. Since mats in smaller creeks had similar levels of nucleotide diversity (π) as mats in larger downstream subwatersheds, within-mat genetic diversity does not appear to depend on the downstream accumulation of upstream-derived strains. The four-gamete test and sequence length bias suggest recombination occurs between almost all strains within each species, even between populations separated by large distances or living in different habitats. Overall, our results show that, despite some isolation by distance and environmental conditions, sufficient gene-flow occurs among cyanobacterial strains to prevent either driver from producing distinctive population structures across the watershed.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗