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At least 235 records · Page 13

Weather and climate extremes in a changing Arctic

Weather and climate extremes are increasingly occurring in the Arctic. Here, in this Review, we evaluate historical and projected changes in rare Arctic extremes across the atmosphere, cryosphere and ocean and elucidate their driving mechanisms. Clear shifts occur in mean and extreme distributions after ~2000. For instance, pre-2000 to post-2000 observational probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 20% for atmospheric heat waves, 76.7% for Atlantic layer warm events, 83.5% for Arctic sea ice loss and 62.9% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt extent — in many cases, low probability, rare extreme events in the early period become the norm in the latter period. These observed changes can be explained using a ‘pushing and triggering’ concept, representing interplay between external forcing and internal variability: long-term warming destabilizes the climate system and ‘pushes’ it to a new state, allowing subsequent variability associated with large-scale atmosphere–ocean–ice interactions and synoptic systems to ‘trigger’ extreme events over different timescales. Ongoing anthropogenic warming is expected to further increase the frequency and magnitude of extremes, such that simulated probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 72.6% for atmospheric heat waves, 68.7% for Atlantic layer warm events and 93.3% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt rate between historic (1984–2014) and future (2069–2099) periods under a very high emission scenario. Future research should prioritize the development of physically based metrics, enhance high-resolution observation and modelling capabilities and improve understanding of multiscale Arctic climate drivers.

atmospheric dynamics↗

Geometrical frustration and competing orders in the dipolar trimerized triangular lattice

Here, we introduce and explore low-energy configurations in two-dimensional arrays consisting of Ising-type dipolar coupled nanomagnets lithographically defined onto three-nanomagnet vertices arranged in a triangular coordination. Thus, the system is dubbed the trimerized triangular lattice. Employing synchrotron-based photoemission electron microscopy, we perform temperature-dependent magnetic imaging of moment configurations. These states are then characterized in terms of spin correlations and magnetic structure factors. The results reveal a competition between ferromagnetic and vortex dominated orders, which can be controlled by varying the relevant lattice parameter and the corresponding competing interactions.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

The Dark Energy Survey supernova program: a reanalysis of cosmology results and evidence for evolving dark energy with an updated Type Ia supernova calibration

We present improved cosmological constraints from a re-analysis of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) 5-year sample of Type Ia supernovae (DES-SN5YR). This re-analysis includes an improved photometric cross-calibration, recent white dwarf observations to cross-calibrate between DES and low-redshift surveys, retraining the salt3 light-curve model and fixing a numerical approximation in the host-galaxy colour law. Our fully recalibrated sample, which we call DES-Dovekie, comprises ~1600 likely Type Ia SNe from DES and ~200 low-redshift SNe from other surveys. With DES-Dovekie, we obtain Ω m = 0.330 ± 0.015 in flat Lambda-cold dark matter (⁠ΛCDM) which changes Ω m by –0.022 compared to DES-SN5YR. Combining DES-Dovekie with cosmic microwave background data from Planck, Atacama Cosmology Telescope, and South Pole Telescope and the DESI DR2 measurements in a flat CDM cosmology, we find ω 0 = –0.803 ± 0.054 and ω a = –0.72 ± 0.21⁠. Our results hold a significance of 3.2σ, reduced from 4.2σ for DES-SN5YR, to reject the null hypothesis that the data are compatible with the cosmological constant. This significance is equivalent to a Bayesian model preference odds of approximately 5:1 in favour of the flat ω 0 ω a CDM model. Using generally accepted thresholds for model preference, our updated data exhibits only a weak preference for evolving dark energy.

dark energy↗

Radiolysis of Thin Water Ice in Electron Microscopy

Little is known about the radiolysis of water ice, especially as compared to the radiolysis of liquid water. In this study, the radiolytic decomposition of thin water ice films is probed for an initial 80 keV electron beam using electron energy loss spectroscopy, EELS. Pre-peaks in the oxygen K-edge spectra give the relative intensities of most of the oxygen containing species produced by radiolytic water decomposition. Contrary to expectations from the extrapolation of liquid water radiolysis data to high dose rates where significant H 2 O 2 production is expected, the main molecular product observed in the oxygen K-edge EELS spectra of water ice is O 2 . Significant mass loss of water and decomposition of most of its radiolytic products are observed for higher exposures, and the O atom seems to have a major role in the subsequent chemistry. An inverse relationship between the formation of O 2 and of ·OH is observed. A new high-dose reaction scheme is proposed. Furthermore, the significance of our results with respect to the radiolysis of water ice and for electron microscopy studies is discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Dual microscopy to explore enhanced atmospheric ice nucleation on multi-component aerosols

Using an optical microscopy setup adapted to in-situ studies of ice formation at ambient pressure, we examined a specific multicomponent mineral, microcline, with the ultimate aim of gaining a more realistic understanding of ice nucleation in Earth’s atmosphere. We focused on a perthitic feldspar, microcline, to test the hypothesis that co-existence in some feldspars of K-rich and Na-rich phases are contributing to enhanced ice nucleation. On a sample deliberately chosen to contain lamella, a typical perthitic microstructure, and flat surface regions next to each other, we performed a series of ice formation experiments. We found microcline to promote ice formation, causing a large number of ice nucleation events at around - 27°C. The number of ice nuclei decreased from experimental run to experimental run, indicating surface aging upon repeated exposure to humidity. An analysis of 10 experimental runs of identical conditions did not reveal an obvious enhancement of ice formation at the lamellar microstructure. Instead, we find efficient nucleation at various surface sites that produce orientationally aligned ice crystallites with asymmetric shape. Based on this observation we propose that surface steps running along select directions produce microfacets of an orientation that is favorable to enhanced ice nucleation, similar to previously reported for K-rich feldspars.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Evaluation of dynamical downscaling in a fully coupled regional earth system model

A set of decadal simulations has been completed and evaluated for gains using the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) to dynamically downscale data from a global Earth system model and two atmospheric reanalyses. RASM is a fully coupled atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice regional Earth system model. Nudging to the forcing data is applied to approximately the top half of the atmospheric domain. RASM simulations were also completed with a modification to the atmospheric physics for evaluating changes to the modeling system. The results show that for the top half of the atmosphere, the RASM simulations follow closely to that of the forcing data, regardless of the forcing data. The results for the lower half of the atmosphere, as well as the surface, show a clustering of atmospheric state and surface fluxes based on the modeling system. At all levels of the atmosphere the imprint of the weather from the forcing data is present as indicated in the pattern of the annual means. Biases, in comparison to reanalyses, are evident in the Earth system model forced simulations for the top half of the atmosphere but are not present in the lower atmosphere. This suggests that bias correction is not needed for fully coupled dynamical downscaling simulations. While the RASM simulations tended to go to the same mean state for the lower atmosphere, there are a differences in the variability and changes of weather patterns across the ensemble of simulations. These differences in the weather result in variances in the sea ice and oceanic states.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Geometric and Material Variability Influences Stress States Relevant to Coastal Permafrost Bluff Failure

Scientific knowledge and engineering tools for predicting coastal erosion are largely confined to temperate climate zones that are dominated by non-cohesive sediments. The pattern of erosion exhibited by the ice-bonded permafrost bluffs in Arctic Alaska, however, is not well-explained by these tools. Investigation of the oceanographic, thermal, and mechanical processes that are relevant to permafrost bluff failure along Arctic coastlines is needed. We conducted physics-based numerical simulations of mechanical response that focus on the impact of geometric and material variability on permafrost bluff stress states for a coastal setting in Arctic Alaska that is prone to toppling mode block failure. Our three-dimensional geomechanical boundary-value problems output static realizations of compressive and tensile stresses. We use these results to quantify variability in the loci of potential instability. We observe that niche dimension affects the location and magnitude of the simulated maximum tensile stress more strongly than the bluff height, ice wedge polygon size, ice wedge geometry, bulk density, Young's Modulus, and Poisson's Ratio. Our simulations indicate that variations in niche dimension can produce radically different potential failure areas and that even relatively shallow vertical cracks can concentrate displacement within ice-bonded permafrost bluffs. These findings suggest that stability assessment approaches, for which the geometry of the failure plane is delineated a priori, may not be ideal for coastlines similar to our study area and could hamper predictions of erosion rates and nearshore sediment/biogeochemical loading.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Equilibrium field theory of magnetic monopoles in degenerate square spin ice: Correlations, entropic interactions, and charge screening regimes

In this work, we describe degenerate square spin as an ensemble of magnetic monopoles coupled via an emergent entropic field that subsumes the effect of the underlying spin vacuum. We compute their effective free energy, entropic interaction, correlations, screening, and structure factor, and find that they coincide with the experimental ones. Unlike in pyrochlore ices, a dimensional mismatch between real and entropic interactions leads to weak singularities at the pinch points and algebraic correlations at long distances. This algebraic screening can be, however, camouflaged by a pseudoscreening regime.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Influence of the vertex region on spin dynamics in artificial Kagome spin ice.

We present experimental and theoretical studies of spin-wave mode dynamics in artificial kagome spin ice vertices made of three identical 15-nm thick elongated Ni80Fe20 nanoislands (macrospins). We consider several possible configurations, from completely disjointed macrospins (full dipolar interelement interac-tions) to fully jointed macrospins (full dipolar-exchange interactions). Using angular-resolved magnetic field dependent broadband ferromagnetic resonance (FMR), we demonstrate the occurrence of a mode localized in the vertex region as indicated by the distinct behavior of the FMR spectra at different angles and configurations. Theoretical calculations using micromagnetic simulations support the existence, ori-gin, and behavior of this mode by interpreting it as a localized, quasi-uniform Kittel mode. Our findings pave the way for designing the most appropriate network consisting of ferromagnetic nanomagnets for specific application purposes in magnonics.

Bang, Wonbae↗

Phonon spectrum of $\mathrm{Pr_2Zr_2O_7}$ and $\mathrm{Pr_2Ir_2O_7}$ as evidence of coupling of the lattice with electronic and magnetic degrees of freedom

Magnetic materials with pyrochlore crystal structure form exotic magnetic states due to the high lattice frustration. Here in this work we follow the effects of coupling of the lattice and electronic and magnetic degrees of freedom in two praseodymium-based pyrochlores $\mathrm{Pr_2Zr_2O_7}$ and $\mathrm{Pr_2Ir_2O_7}$. In either of these materials, the presence of magnetic interactions does not lead to magnetically ordered low temperature states; however, their electronic properties are different. A comparison of Raman phonon spectra of $\mathrm{Pr_2Zr_2O_7}$ and $\mathrm{Pr_2Ir_2O_7}$ allows us to identify magnetoelastic coupling in $\mathrm{Pr_2Zr_2O_7}$ that elucidates its magnetic properties at intermediate temperatures and allows us to characterize phonon-electron scattering in the semimetallic $\mathrm{Pr_2Ir_2O_7}$. We also show that the effects of random disorder on the Raman phonon spectra is small.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Phase Transitions in Organic and Organic/Inorganic Aerosol Particles

The phase state of aerosol particles can impact numerous atmospheric processes, including new particle growth, heterogeneous chemistry, cloud condensation nucleus formation, and ice nucleation. In this article, the phase transitions of inorganic, organic, and organic/inorganic aerosol particles are discussed, with particular focus on liquid-liquid phase separation (LLPS). The physical chemistry that determines whether LLPS occurs, at what relative humidity it occurs, and the resultant particle morphology is explained using both theoretical and experimental methods. The known impacts of LLPS on aerosol processes in the atmosphere are discussed. Finally, potential evidence for LLPS from field and chamber studies is presented. By understanding the physical chemistry of the phase transitions of aerosol particles, we will acquire a better understanding of aerosol processes, which in turn impact human health and climate.

Chemistry↗

The microscopic mechanism of bulk melting of ice

We study the initial stages of homogeneous melting of a hexagonal ice crystal at coexistence and at moderate superheating. Our trajectory-based computer simulation approach provides a comprehensive picture of the events that lead to melting, from the initial accumulation of 5+7 defects, via the formation of L-D and interstitial-vacancy pairs, to the formation of a liquid nucleus. Of the different types of defects that we observe to be involved in melting, a particular kind of 5+7 type defect (type 5) plays a prominent role as it often forms prior to the formation of the initial liquid nucleus and close to the site where the nucleus forms. Hence, like other solids, ice homogeneously melts via the prior accumulation of defects.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Observationally-based relations among water cycle parameters during snowfall events in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Cold-season precipitation predictability within the complex terrain of the Upper Colorado River Basin is vital for water resource management across many western states, as the Colorado River serves as a primary source of water for over 40 million people in the Western United States and Mexico. This study uses the remote sensing measurements of such water cycle parameters as the liquid equivalent snowfall rate, S, and accumulation, A, vertically integrated amounts of supercooled cloud liquid and ice expressed as liquid water path(LWP) and ice water path (IWP), respectively, and vertically integrated water vapor IWV.

Matrosov, Sergey [CIRES University of Colorado Bou↗

Enhancing the formation of ionic defects to study the ice Ih/XI transition with molecular dynamics simulations

Ice Ih, the common form of ice in the biosphere, contains proton disorder. Its proton-ordered counterpart, ice XI, is thermodynamically stable below 72 K. However, the formation of ice XI is kinetically hindered, and experimentally it is obtained by doping with KOH. Doping creates ionic defects that promote the migration of protons and the associated change in proton configuration. In this article, we mimic the effect of doping with a bias potential that enhances the formation of ionic defects in molecular dynamics simulations. The recombination of the ions thus formed proceeds through fast migration of the hydroxide along hydrogen bond loops, providing a physical and expedite way to change the proton configuration. Here, a key ingredient of this approach is a machine learning potential trained with density functional theory data and capable of modelling molecular dissociation. We exemplify the usefulness of this idea by studying the order-disorder transition using an appropriate order parameter that distinguishes the proton environments in ice Ih and XI. We calculate the changes in free energy, enthalpy, and entropy associated with the transition. Our estimated entropy agrees with experiment within the error bars of the calculation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program: an updated measurement of the Hubble constant using the inverse distance ladder

We measure the current expansion rate of the Universe, Hubble’s constant $H_0$, by calibrating the absolute magnitudes of supernovae to distances measured by baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO). This ‘inverse distance ladder’ technique provides an alternative to calibrating supernovae using nearby absolute distance measurements, replacing the calibration with a high-redshift anchor. We use the recent release of 1829 supernovae from the Dark Energy Survey spanning $0.01\lt z\lt 1.13$ anchored to the recent baryon acoustic oscillation measurements from Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) spanning $0.30 \lt z_{\mathrm{eff}}\lt 2.33$. To trace cosmology to $z=0$, we use the third-, fourth-, and fifth-order cosmographic models, which, by design, are agnostic about the energy content and expansion history of the universe. With the inclusion of the higher redshift DESI-BAO data, the third-order model is a poor fit to both data sets, with the fourth-order model being preferred by the Akaike Information Criterion. Using the fourth-order cosmographic model, we find $H_0=67.19^{+0.66}_{-0.64}\mathrm{~km} \mathrm{~s}^{-1} \mathrm{~Mpc}^{-1}$, in agreement with the value found by Planck without the need to assume Flat-$\Lambda$CDM. However, the best-fitting expansion history differs from that of Planck, providing continued motivation to investigate these tensions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Role of In-Cloud Wet Removal in Simulating Aerosol Vertical Profiles and Cloud Radiative Forcing

Among the physical processes controlling aerosol vertical profiles, in-cloud wet removal is of utmost importance while its representation in global climate models (GCMs) is crude. In this study, we implement into the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) a physically based aerosol wet removal parameterization scheme that explicitly treats aerosol activation, removal and resuspension. Evaluation against in-situ observations shows that the default scheme substantially overestimates the upper tropospheric black carbon (BC) and sea salt mass. Our physically based scheme reduces BC and sea salt mass by a factor of 10 and 1,000, respectively, in better agreement with observations. Also, the new scheme slightly increases number of aerosol particles between 12 nm and 4.8 μm in diameter, thereby mitigating the aerosol number underestimation in the default scheme. Our new scheme reduces the overestimation of coarse-mode aerosol (0.5–4.8 μm) number. Overall, the aerosol property changes (mass decrease and number increase) reduce the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration at low supersaturation (i.e., 0.02% and 0.1%), and increase CCN at high supersaturations (i.e., 0.5% and 1%). Consequently, the global annual mean cloud liquid water path increases by 1.89 g m -2 and the ice water path increases by 0.51 g m -2 . The global annual mean shortwave, longwave, and net cloud radiative forcing change by -1.06, 0.57, and -0.48 W m -2 , respectively. Further improvement is needed to reflect the real physics that the removal efficiencies for aerosol mass and number are disproportionate and to advect cloud-borne (activated) aerosols for a complete aerosol lifecycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Transferable Water Potentials Using Equivariant Neural Networks

Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have emerged as a technique that promises quantum theory accuracy for reduced cost. It has been proposed [J. Chem. Phys. 2023, 158, 084111] that MLIPs trained on solely liquid water data cannot accurately transfer to the vapor–liquid equilibrium while recovering the many-body decomposition (MBD) analysis of gas-phase water clusters. This suggests that MLIPs do not directly learn the physically correct interactions of water molecules, limiting transferability. In this work, we show that MLIPs using equivariant architecture and trained on 3200 liquid water structures reproduces liquid-phase water properties (e.g., density within 0.003 g/cm 3 between 230 and 365 K), vapor–liquid equilibrium properties up to 550 K, the MBD analysis of gas-phase water cluster up to six-body interactions, and the relative energy and the vibrational density of states of ice phases. We show that potentials developed using equivariant MLIPs allow transferability for arbitrary phases of water that remain stable in nanosecond long simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗