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Results for “hierarchical models”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13

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NASA NTRS2004

Computation Molecular Kinetics Model of HZE Induced Cell Cycle Arrest

Cell culture models play an important role in understanding the biological effectiveness of space radiation. High energy and charge (HZE) ions produce prolonged cell cycle arrests at the G1/S and G2/M transition points in the cell cycle. A detailed description of these phenomena is needed to integrate knowledge of the expression of DNA damage in surviving cells, including the determination of relative effectiveness factors between different types of radiation that produce differential types of DNA damage and arrest durations. We have developed a hierarchical kinetics model that tracks the distribution of cells in various cell phase compartments (early G1, late G1, S, G2, and M), however with transition rates that are controlled by rate-limiting steps in the kinetics of cyclin-cdk's interactions with their families of transcription factors and inhibitor molecules. The coupling of damaged DNA molecules to the downstream cyclin-cdk inhibitors is achieved through a description of the DNA-PK and ATM signaling pathways. For HZE irradiations we describe preliminary results, which introduce simulation of the stochastic nature of the number of direct particle traversals per cell in the modulation of cyclin-cdk and cell cycle population kinetics. Comparison of the model to data for fibroblast cells irradiated photons or HZE ions are described.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Accurate and uncertainty-aware multi-task prediction of HEA properties using prior-guided deep Gaussian processes

Surrogate modeling techniques have become indispensable in accelerating the discovery and optimization of high-entropy alloys (HEAs), especially when integrating computational predictions with sparse experimental observations. This study systematically evaluates the training and testing performance of four prominent surrogate models—conventional Gaussian processes (cGP), Deep Gaussian processes (DGP), encoder-decoder neural networks for multi-output regression and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)—applied to a hybrid dataset of experimental and computational properties of the 8-component HEA system Al-Co-Cr-Cu-Fe-Mn-Ni-V. We specifically assess their capabilities in predicting correlated material properties, including yield strength, hardness, modulus, ultimate tensile strength, elongation, and average hardness under dynamic/quasi-static conditions, alongside auxiliary computational properties. The comparison highlights the strengths of hierarchical deep modeling approaches in handling heteroscedastic, heterotopic, and incomplete data commonly encountered in materials science. Our findings illustrate that combined surrogate models such as DGPs infused with machine-learned priors outperform other surrogates by effectively capturing inter-property correlations and by assimilating prior knowledge. This enhanced predictive accuracy positions the combined surrogate models as powerful tools for robust and data-efficient materials design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Benchmarking and Performance of the NASA Multiscale Analysis Tool

The NASA Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT) is as a “plug and play,” software package which utilizes multiscale recursive micromechanics as a platform for massively multiscale modeling of hierarchical materials and structures subjected to thermomechanical. This paper is intended to give an overview of the design of NASMAT and how the design supports modularity, upgradability and maintainability, interoperability, and utility. First, the software architecture and hierarchy will be explored. Details on each of the 11 NASMAT procedures and the arrangement of NASMAT data will be presented. Application program interfaces (APIs) that were developed to facilitate the communication of NASMAT with other programs will be described. The intended application for NASMAT is massively multiscale modeling on high performance computing systems. As such, results benchmarking the performance of the integration of NASMAT with the Abaqus commercial finite element method software are also presented.

Multiscale Modeling↗

DOE OSTI2023

The evolution of the Milky Way’s thin disc radial metallicity gradient with K2 asteroseismic ages

ABSTRACT The radial metallicity distribution of the Milky Way’s disc is an important observational constraint for models of the formation and evolution of our Galaxy. It informs our understanding of the chemical enrichment of the Galactic disc and the dynamical processes therein, particularly radial migration. We investigate how the metallicity changes with guiding radius in the thin disc using a sample of red giant stars with robust astrometric, spectroscopic, and asteroseismic parameters. Our sample contains 668 stars with guiding radii 4 < Rg < 11 kpc and asteroseismic ages covering the whole history of the thin disc with precision ${\approx} 25 {{\, \rm per\ cent}}$. We use MCMC analysis to measure the gradient and its intrinsic spread in bins of age and construct a hierarchical Bayesian model to investigate the evolution of these parameters independently of the bins. We find a smooth evolution of the gradient from ≈−0.07 dex kpc−1 in the youngest stars to ≈−0.04 dex kpc−1 in stars older than 10 Gyr, with no break at intermediate ages. Our results are consistent with those based on asteroseismic ages from CoRoT, with that found in Cepheid variables for stars younger than 1 Gyr, and with open clusters for stars younger than 6 Gyr. For older stars we find a significantly lower metallicity in our sample than in the clusters, suggesting a survival bias favouring more metal-rich clusters. We also find that the chemical evolution model of Chiappini '09 is too metal poor in the early stages of disc formation. Our results provide strong new constraints for the growth and enrichment of the thin disc and radial migration, which will facilitate new tests of model conditions and physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

PS3: The Pheno-Synthesis software suite for integration and analysis of multi-scale, multi-platform phenological data

Phenology is the study of recurring plant and animal life-cycle stages which can be observed across spatial and temporal scales that span orders of magnitude (e.g., organisms to landscapes). The variety of scales at which phenological processes operate is reflected in the range of methods for collecting phenologically relevant data, and the programs focused on these collections. Consideration of the scale at which phenological observations are made, and the platform used for observation, is critical for the interpretation of phenological data and the application of these data to both research questions and land management objectives. However, there is currently little capacity to facilitate access, integration and analysis of cross-scale, multi-platform phenological data. This paper reports on a new suite of software and analysis tools – the “Pheno-Synthesis Software Suite,” or PS3 – to facilitate integration and analysis of phenological and ancillary data, enabling investigation and interpretation of phenological processes at scales ranging from organisms to landscapes and from days to decades. We use PS3 to investigate phenological processes in a semi-aride, mixed shrub-grass ecosystem, and find that the apparent importance of seasonal precipitation to vegetation activity (i.e., “greenness”) is affected by the scale and platform of observation. We end by describing potential applications of PS3 to phenological modeling and forecasting, understanding patterns and drivers of phenological activity in real-world ecosystems, and supporting agricultural and natural resource management and decision-making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hierarchical ensemble Kalman methods with sparsity-promoting generalized gamma hyperpriors

This paper introduces a computational framework to incorporate flexible regularization techniques in ensemble Kalman methods, generalizing the iterative alternating scheme to nonlinear inverse problems. The proposed methodology approximates the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate of a hierarchical Bayesian model characterized by a conditionally Gaussian prior and generalized gamma hyperpriors. Suitable choices of hyperparameters yield sparsity-promoting regularization. We propose an iterative algorithm for MAP estimation, which alternates between updating the unknown with an ensemble Kalman method and updating the hyperparameters in the regularization to promote sparsity. Here, the effectiveness of our methodology is demonstrated in several computed examples, including compressed sensing and subsurface flow inverse problems.

Ensemble Kalman methods↗

DOE OSTI2020

On‐site surrogates for large‐scale calibration

Abstract Motivated by a computer model calibration problem from the oil and gas industry, involving the design of a honeycomb seal, we develop a new Bayesian methodology to cope with limitations in the canonical apparatus stemming from several factors. We propose a new strategy of on‐site design and surrogate modeling for a computer simulator acting on a high‐dimensional input space that, although relatively speedy, is prone to numerical instabilities, missing data, and nonstationary dynamics. Our aim is to strike a balance between data‐faithful modeling and computational tractability in a calibration framework—tailoring the computer model to a limited field experiment. Situating our on‐site surrogates within the canonical calibration apparatus requires updates to that framework. We describe a novel yet intuitive Bayesian setup that carefully decomposes otherwise prohibitively large matrices by exploiting the sparse blockwise structure. Empirical illustrations demonstrate that this approach performs well on toy data and our motivating honeycomb example.

Huang, Jiangeng↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian Estimation of the D(p,γ) 3 He Thermonuclear Reaction Rate

Big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) is the standard model theory for the production of the light nuclides during the early stages of the universe, taking place for a period of about 20 minutes after the big bang. Deuterium production, in particular, is highly sensitive to the primordial baryon density and the number of neutrino species, and its abundance serves as a sensitive test for the conditions in the early universe. The comparison of observed deuterium abundances with predicted ones requires reliable knowledge of the relevant thermonuclear reaction rates, and their corresponding uncertainties. Recent observations reported the primordial deuterium abundance with percent accuracy, but some theoretical predictions based on BBN are at tension with the measured values because of uncertainties in the cross section of the deuterium-burning reactions. In this work, we analyze the S-factor of the D(p,γ) 3 He reaction using a hierarchical Bayesian model. We take into account the results of eleven experiments, spanning the period of 1955--2021; more than any other study. We also present results for two different fitting functions, a two-parameter function based on microscopic nuclear theory and a four-parameter polynomial. Furthermore, our recommended reaction rates have a 2.2\% uncertainty at 0.8~GK, which is the temperature most important for deuterium BBN. Differences between our rates and previous results are discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Software Architecture and Hierarchy of the Nasa Multiscale Analysis Tool

The NASA Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT) serves as a state-of-the-art, “plug and play,” software package which utilizes multiscale recursive micromechanics as a platform for massively multiscale modeling for hierarchical materials and structures subjected to thermomechanical loads on high performance computing systems. This paper is intended to give an overview of the design of NASMAT and how the design supports modularity, upgradability and maintainability, interoperability, and utility. First, the software architecture and hierarchy will be explored. Details on each of the 11 NASMAT procedures and the arrangement of NASMAT data will be presented. Finally, application program interfaces (APIs) that were developed to facilitate the communication of NASMAT with other programs will be described.

multiscale modeling↗

NASA NTRS2023

Eastern Indigo Snake (Drymarchon couperi) Shelter Site Use in Peninsular Florida and Implications for Habitat Conservation

Shelters are critical for many species as protection from predators and extreme temperatures. Successful conservation of reptiles requires understanding both shelter site requirements and availability. The Eastern Indigo Snake (EIS) is endemic to the southeastern United States and is federally listed. Recovery has focused on maximizing unfragmented landscapes, with less attention on fine-scale features such as shelter sites. In the northern EIS range, Gopher Tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) burrows are used extensively for shelter. Although EIS in peninsular Florida often shelter in tortoise burrows, they also use other shelters where tortoise burrows are scarce or absent. Solely focusing EIS survey and management efforts where Gopher Tortoises are present may overlook occupied habitats and misallocate resources. We investigated the importance of different shelter sites in central Florida using data from radio-tracked EIS. We modeled the use of shelter categories as a function of sex, season, and habitat using Bayesian multinomial generalized linear models. Results showed that EIS in peninsular Florida used Gopher Tortoise burrows across all seasons and habitats. Tortoise burrow use was highest in xeric habitats and lowest in mesic habitats where burrows are most and least abundant, respectively. There was less variability in shelter site use in disturbed habitats and flatwoods. Cool season tortoise burrow use across sexes and habitats in our study was much lower than in southern Georgia. Our results indicate that EIS are less dependent on Gopher Tortoise burrows in peninsular Florida and that suitable habitats with few or no tortoise burrows could still provide conservation value for EIS.

Bayesian hierarchical modeling↗

DOE OSTI2025

Development and assessment of hierarchical multi-reward reinforcement learning based potential for silicene with state-of-the-art models

We develop a new interatomic force field for Silicene, a 2D material with a buckled hexagonal lattice structure with high polymorphism. We introduce new parameterizations of a Tersoff model using a hierarchical multi-reward reinforcement learning (RL) methodology coupled with a continuous Monte Carlo Tree Search optimization. Our model significantly outperforms existing methods by enhancing the accuracy of predictions for the structural and thermodynamic properties of seven silicene polymorphs-including structure, energy, equation of state, elasticity, and phonon dispersion-when compared to established models. We further make a comprehensive comparison of the various models in predicting the mechanical and thermal properties of silicene. We trace the origin of the improved performance to the description of the angular dependence in the bond-order term, suggesting that modifying the angular terms in short-range models is essential to capture the structural diversity in low dimensional systems.

2D materials↗

DOE OSTI2024

The trailing edge is everywhere: tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts

Given the importance of climate in shaping species’ geographic distributions, climate change poses an existential threat to biodiversity. Climate envelope modeling, the predominant approach used to quantify this threat, presumes that individuals in populations respond to climate variability and change according to species-level responses inferred from spatial occurrence data—such that individuals at the cool edge of a species’ distribution should benefit from warming (the “leading edge”), whereas individuals at the warm edge should suffer (the “trailing edge”). Using 1,558 tree-ring time series of an aridland pine (Pinus edulis) collected at 977 locations across the species’ distribution, we found that trees everywhere grow less in warmer-than-average and drier-than-average years. Ubiquitous negative temperature sensitivity indicates that individuals across the entire distribution should suffer with warming—the entire distribution is a trailing edge. Species-level responses to spatial climate variation are opposite in sign to individual-scale responses to time-varying climate for approximately half the species’ distribution with respect to temperature and the majority of the species’ distribution with respect to precipitation. These findings, added to evidence from the literature for scale-dependent climate responses in hundreds of species, suggest that correlative, equilibrium-based range forecasts may fail to accurately represent how individuals in populations will be impacted by changing climate. A scale-dependent view of the impact of climate change on biodiversity highlights the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts and the importance of evolution in rescuing species from extinction whenever local climate variability and change exceeds individual-scale climate tolerances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Hybrid Framework Combining Model-Based and Data-Driven Methods for Hierarchical Decentralized Robust Dynamic State Estimation

This paper combines model-based and data-driven methods to develop a hierarchical, decentralized, robust dynamic state estimator (DSE). A two-level hierarchy is proposed, where the lower level consists of robust, model-based, decentralized DSEs. The state estimates sent from the lower level are received at the upper level, where they are filtered by a robust data-driven DSE after a principled sparse selection. This selection allows us to shrink the dimension of the problem at the upper level and hence significantly speed up the computational time. The proposed hybrid framework does not depend on the centralized infrastructure of the control centers; thus it can be completely embedded into the wide-area measurement systems. This feature will ultimately facilitate the placement of hierarchical decentralized control schemes at the phasor data concentrator locations. Also, the network model is not necessary; thus, a topology processor is not required. Finally, there is no assumption on the dynamics of the electric loads. The proposed framework is tested on the 2,000-bus synthetic Texas system, and shown to be capable of reconstructing the dynamic states of the generators with high accuracy, and of forecasting in the advent of missing data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Gauged global strings

We investigate the string solutions and cosmological implications of the gauge U(1) Z × global U(1) PQ model. With two hierarchical symmetry-breaking scales, the model exhibits three distinct string solutions: a conventional global string, a global string with a heavy core, and a gauge string as a bound state of the two global strings. This model reveals rich phenomenological implications in cosmology. During the evolution of the universe, these three types of strings can form a Y-junction configuration. Intriguingly, when incorporating this model with the QCD axion framework, the heavy-core global strings emit more axion particles compared to conventional axion cosmic strings due to their higher tension. This radiation significantly enhances the QCD axion dark matter abundance, thereby opening up the QCD axion mass window. Consequently, axions with masses exceeding ~ 10 −5 eV have the potential to constitute the whole dark matter abundance. Furthermore, in contrast to conventional gauge strings, the gauge strings in this model exhibit a distinctive behavior by radiating axions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A hierarchical gray-box dynamic modeling methodology for direct-expansion cooling systems to support control stability analysis; Méthodologie de modélisation dynamique hiérarchique de type boîte grise pour les systèmes de refroidissement à détente directe afin de soutenir l'analyse de stabilité de la commande

In this paper, a gray-box dynamic modeling approach for direct-expansion cooling systems is presented. The overall approach incorporates a multi-stage training procedure that consists of 1) identification of component sub-models from quasi-steady-state performance data, 2) system model integration with estimation of refrigerant charge and 3) fine tuning of thermal capacitances of the evaporator and condenser to capture the system dynamic responses. Compared to traditional physics-based models, the proposed modeling approach has advantages including reduced engineering efforts in the model development phase, improved computational efficiency and enhanced prediction accuracy. The modeling method was validated using a 3-ton variable-speed heat pump and proved to be capable of accurately predicting the system transient behaviors over a wide range of operating conditions. The established dynamic model was then applied for control stability analysis, with a specific goal of determining a proper control execution time step. The case study results showed that the stable control execution time step could change significantly, from 3 sec to 19 sec, as the operating conditions and control settings vary, and a proper selection of the execution time step is critical to ensure stable and reliable operations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian learning for rapid prediction of lithium-ion battery-cycling protocols

Advancing lithium-ion battery technology requires the optimization of cycling protocols. A new data-driven methodology is demonstrated for rapid, accurate prediction of the cycle life obtained by new cycling protocols using a single test lasting only 3 cycles, enabling rapid exploration of cycling protocol design spaces with orders of magnitude reduction in testing time. We achieve this by combining lifetime early prediction with a hierarchical Bayesian model (HBM) to rapidly predict performance distributions without the need for extensive repetitive testing. The methodology is applied to a comprehensive dataset of lithium-iron-phosphate/graphite comprising 29 different fast-charging protocols. HBM alone provides high protocol-lifetime prediction performance, with 6.5% of overall test average percent error, after cycling only one battery to failure. Here, by combining HBM with a battery lifetime prediction model, we achieve a test error of 8.8% using a single 3-cycle test. In addition, the generalizability of the HBM approach is demonstrated for lithium-manganese-cobalt-oxide/graphite cells.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Deep Gaussian process-based cost-aware batch Bayesian optimization for complex materials design campaigns

The accelerating pace and expanding scope of materials discovery demand optimization frameworks that efficiently navigate vast design spaces with complex response surfaces while judiciously allocating limited evaluation resources. We present a cost-aware, batch Bayesian optimization scheme powered by deep Gaussian process (DGP) surrogates and a heterotopic querying strategy. Our DGP surrogate, formed by stacking GP layers, models complex hierarchical relationships among high-dimensional compositional features and captures correlations across multiple target properties, propagating uncertainty through successive layers. We integrate evaluation cost into an upper-confidence-bound acquisition extension, which, together with heterotopic querying, proposes small batches of candidates in parallel, balancing exploration of under-characterized regions with exploitation of high-mean, low-variance predictions across correlated properties. Applied to refractory high-entropy alloys for high-temperature applications, our framework converges to optimal formulations in fewer iterations with cost-aware queries than conventional GP-based BO, highlighting the value of deep, uncertainty-aware, cost-sensitive strategies in materials campaigns.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗