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Long life assurance study for manned spacecraft long life hardware. Volume 5: Long life assurance test and study recommendations

A study was conducted to establish the guidelines to be applied to the selection of equipment for manned spacecraft systems. Recommendations for expansion of the original study are submitted. The subjects considered are: (1) designing to severe dynamic requirements; (2) analysis of in-space failures due to life limitations; (3) accelerated testing of semiconductors; (4) fan life verification; (5) testing of solid tantalum capacitors; (6) testing of teflon valve seats; and (7) electromigration model verification.

Source record↗

Classifying Software For Reuse

Scheme for classifying software facilitates and accelerates retrieval of software components. Method aids reuse of software and increases software developers' productivity. Used to discover software components meeting specified need in large collection of useful, reliable components. Classification and retrieval methodology applies equally to things unrelated to software, such as hardware, patents, legal cases, and books. Searcher enables user to find desired software without being required to answer excessive number of questions and without presenting user with too many possible answers to any one question. Although it guides inexperienced user through system, it lets expert user forge ahead without artificial restriction.

Snyder, William V.↗

Feasibility Study of SDAS Instrumentation's Ability to Identify Mobile Launcher (ML)/Crawler-Transporter (CT) Modes During Rollout Operations

The Space Launch System (SLS) and its Mobile Launcher (ML) will be transported to the launch pad via the Crawler-Transporter (CT) system. Rollout (i.e., transportation) loads produce structural loads on the integrated SLS/Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) launch vehicle which are of a concern with respect to fatigue. As part of the risk reduction process and in addition to the modal building block test approach that has been adopted by the SLS Program, acceleration data will be obtained during rollout for use in modal parameter estimation. There are several occurrences where the ML/CT will be transported either into the Vertical Assembly Building (VAB) or to the launch pad and back without the SLS stack as part of the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Exploration Ground Systems (EGS) Integrated Test and Checkout (ITCO). NASA KSC EGS has instrumentation installed on both the ML and CT to record data during rollout, at the launch pad, and during liftoff. The EGS instrumentation on the ML, which includes accelerometers, is referred to as the Sensor Data Acquisition System (SDAS). The EGS instrumentation on the CT, which also includes accelerometers, is referred to as the CT Data Acquisition System (CTDAS). The forces and accelerations applied to the ML and CT during a rollout event will be higher than any of the planned building block modal tests. This can be very beneficial in helping identify nonlinear behavior in the structure. Developing modal parameters from the same test hardware in multiple boundary conditions and under multiple levels of excitation is a key step in developing a well correlated FEM. The purpose of this study was three fold. First, determine the target modes of the ML/CT in its rollout configuration. Second, determine if the test degrees of freedom (DOF) corresponding to the layout of the SDAS/CTDAS accelerometers (i.e. position and orientation) is sufficient to identify the target modes. Third, determine if the Generic Rollout Forcing Functions (GRFF's) is sufficient for identifying the ML/CT target modes accounting for variations in CT speed, modal damping, and sensor/ambient background noise levels. The finding from the first part of this study identified 28 target modes of the ML/CT rollout configuration based upon Modal Effective Mass Fractions (MEFF) and engineering judgement. The finding from the second part of this study showed that the SDAS/CTDAS accelerometers (i.e. position and orientation) are able to identify a sufficient number of the target modes to support model correlation of the ML/CT FEM. The finding from the third part of this study confirms the GRFFs sufficiently excite the ML/CT such that varying quantities of the defined target modes should be able to be extracted when utilizing an Experimental Modal Analysis (EMA) Multi-Input Multi-Output (MIMO) analysis approach. An EMA analysis approach was used because Operational Modal Analysis (OMA) tools were not available and the GRFFs were sufficiently uncorrelated. Two key findings from this third part of the study are that the CT speed does not show a significant impact on the ability to extract the modal parameters and that keeping the ambient background noise observed at each accelerometer location at or below 30 µgrms is essential to the success of this approach.

Winkel, James P.↗

Final design and fabrication of an active control system for flutter suppression on a supercritical aeroelastic research wing

The final design and hardware fabrication was completed for an active control system capable of the required flutter suppression, compatible with and ready for installation in the NASA aeroelastic research wing number 1 (ARW-1) on Firebee II drone flight test vehicle. The flutter suppression system uses vertical acceleration at win buttock line 1.930 (76), with fuselage vertical and roll accelerations subtracted out, to drive wing outboard aileron control surfaces through appropriate symmetric and antisymmetric shaping filters. The goal of providing an increase of 20 percent above the unaugmented vehicle flutter velocity but below the maximum operating condition at Mach 0.98 is exceeded by the final flutter suppression system. Results indicate that the flutter suppression system mechanical and electronic components are ready for installation on the DAST ARW-1 wing and BQM-34E/F drone fuselage.

Hodges, G. E.↗

Space Station microgravity and materials processing facility A national laboratory dedicated to U.S. interests

The Microgravity and Materials Processing Facility (MMPF) of the Space Station is examined. The MMPF is designed to accommodate individual experiments and associated hardware and is to be housed in the Manufacturing and Technology Laboratory Module. The objectives of the microgravity and materials processing study and the user, experiment/equipment, MMPF system requirements, and programmatics and planning development tasks of the study are described. Consideration is given to the acceleration environment, on-orbit sample preparation and analysis, mission-time-line analyses, and payload complement trades. Diagrams of the MMPF are presented.

Atkins, H. L.↗

Effect of KOH concentration on LEO cycle life of IPV nickel-hydrogen flight battery cells

A breakthrough in low earth orbit (LEO) cycle life of individual pressure vessel (IPV) nickel hydrogen battery cells was reported. The cycle life of boiler plate cells containing 26 percent potassium hydroxide (KOH) electrolyte was about 40,000 LEO cycles compared to 3500 cycles for cells containing 31 percent KOH. The effect of KOH concentration on cycle life was studied. The cycle regime was a stressful accelerated LEO, which consisted of a 27.5 min charge followed by a 17.5 min charge (2 x normal rate). The depth of discharge (DOD) was 80 percent. The cell temperature was maintained at 23 C. The next step is to validate these results using flight hardware and a real time LEO test. NASA Lewis has a contract with the Naval Weapons Support Center (NWSC), Crane, Indiana, to validate the boiler plate test results. Six 48 A-hr Hughes recirculation design IPV nickel-hydrogen flight battery cells are being evaluated. Three of the cells contain 26 percent KOH (test cells) and three contain 31 percent KOH (control cells). They are undergoing real time LEO cycle life testing. The cycle regime is a 90-min LEO orbit consisting of a 54-min charge followed by a 36-min discharge. The depth-of-discharge is 80 percent. The cell temperature is maintained at 10 C. The cells were cycled for over 8000 cycles in the continuing test. There were no failures for the cells containing 26 percent KOH. There was two failures, however, for the cells containing 31 percent KOH.

Smithrick, John J.↗

Effect of KOH concentration on LEO cycle life of IPV nickel-hydrogen flight battery cells

A breakthrough in the low-earth-orbit (LEO) cycle life of individual pressure vessel (IPV) nickel hydrogen battery cells is reported. The cycle life of boiler plate cells containing 26 percent potassium hydroxide (KOH) electrolyte was about 40,000 LEO cycles compared to 3500 cycles for cells containing 31 percent KOH. The effect of KOH concentration on cycle life was studied. The cycle regime was a stressful accelerated LEO, which consisted of a 27.5 min charge followed by a 17.5 min charge (2 x normal rate). The depth of discharge (DOD) was 80 percent. The cell temperature was maintained at 23 C. The next step is to validate these results using flight hardware and real time LEO test. NASA Lewis has a contract with the Naval Weapons Support Center (NWSC), Crane, Indiana to validate the boiler plate test results. Six 48 A-hr Hughes recirculation design IPV nickel-hydrogen flight battery cells are being evaluated. Three of the cells contain 26 percent KOH (test cells) and three contain 31 percent KOH (control cells). They are undergoing real time LEO cycle life testing. The cycle regime is a 90-min LEO orbit consisting of a 54-min charge followed by a 36-min discharge. The depth-of-discharge is 80 percent. The cell temperature is maintained at 10 C. The cells were cycled for over 8000 cycles in the continuing test. There were no failures for the cells containing 26 percent KOH. There were two failures, however, for the cells containing 31 percent KOH.

Smithrick, John J.↗

Experimental analysis of computer system dependability

This paper reviews an area which has evolved over the past 15 years: experimental analysis of computer system dependability. Methodologies and advances are discussed for three basic approaches used in the area: simulated fault injection, physical fault injection, and measurement-based analysis. The three approaches are suited, respectively, to dependability evaluation in the three phases of a system's life: design phase, prototype phase, and operational phase. Before the discussion of these phases, several statistical techniques used in the area are introduced. For each phase, a classification of research methods or study topics is outlined, followed by discussion of these methods or topics as well as representative studies. The statistical techniques introduced include the estimation of parameters and confidence intervals, probability distribution characterization, and several multivariate analysis methods. Importance sampling, a statistical technique used to accelerate Monte Carlo simulation, is also introduced. The discussion of simulated fault injection covers electrical-level, logic-level, and function-level fault injection methods as well as representative simulation environments such as FOCUS and DEPEND. The discussion of physical fault injection covers hardware, software, and radiation fault injection methods as well as several software and hybrid tools including FIAT, FERARI, HYBRID, and FINE. The discussion of measurement-based analysis covers measurement and data processing techniques, basic error characterization, dependency analysis, Markov reward modeling, software-dependability, and fault diagnosis. The discussion involves several important issues studies in the area, including fault models, fast simulation techniques, workload/failure dependency, correlated failures, and software fault tolerance.

Iyer, Ravishankar, K.↗

Status of the Development of Flight Power Processing Units for the NASAs Evolutionary Xenon Thruster - Commercial (NEXT-C) Project

A pathfinder prototype unit and two flight power processing units (PPUs) are being developed by the Aerojet Rocketdyne Corporation in Redmond, Washington and ZIN Technologies in Cleveland, Ohio, in support of the NEXT-C Project. This project is being led by the NASA Glenn Research Center in Cleveland, Ohio, and will also yield two flight thrusters. This hardware is being considered to be provided as Government Furnished Equipment for the New Frontiers Program, and is applicable to a variety of planetary science missions and astrophysics science missions. The design of the NEXT-C PPU evolves from the hardware fabricated under the NEXT technology development project. The power processing unit operates from two sources: a wide input 80 to 160 V high-power bus and a nominal 28 V low-power bus. The unit includes six power supplies. Four power supplies (beam, accelerator, discharge, and neutralizer keeper) are needed for steady state operation, while two cathode heater power supplies (neutralizer and discharge) are utilized during thruster startup. The unit in total delivers up to 7 kW of regulated power to a single gridded-ion thruster. Significant modifications to the initial design include: high-power adaptive-delay control, upgrade of design to EEE-INST-002 compliance, telemetry accuracy improvements, incorporation of telemetry to detect plume-mode operation, and simplification of the design in select areas to improve manufacturability and commercialization potential. The project is presently in the prototype phase and preparing for qualification level environmental testing.

NASAaEuro(TM)s Evolutionary Xenon Thruster↗

Vibration Isolation Technology (VIT) ATD Project

A fundamental advantage for performing material processing and fluid physics experiments in an orbital environment is the reduction in gravity driven phenomena. However, experience with manned spacecraft such as the Space Transportation System (STS) has demonstrated a dynamic acceleration environment far from being characterized as a 'microgravity' platform. Vibrations and transient disturbances from crew motions, thruster firings, rotating machinery etc. can have detrimental effects on many proposed microgravity science experiments. These same disturbances are also to be expected on the future space station. The Microgravity Science and Applications Division (MSAD) of the Office of Life and Microgravity Sciences and Applications (OLMSA), NASA Headquarters recognized the need for addressing this fundamental issue. As a result an Advanced Technology Development (ATD) project was initiated in the area of Vibration Isolation Technology (VIT) to develop methodologies for meeting future microgravity science needs. The objective of the Vibration Isolation Technology ATD project was to provide technology for the isolation of microgravity science experiments by developing methods to maintain a predictable, well defined, well characterized, and reproducible low-gravity environment, consistent with the needs of the microgravity science community. Included implicitly in this objective was the goal of advising the science community and hardware developers of the fundamental need to address the importance of maintaining, and how to maintain, a microgravity environment. This document will summarize the accomplishments of the VIT ATD which is now completed. There were three specific thrusts involved in the ATD effort. An analytical effort was performed at the Marshall Space Flight Center to define the sensitivity of selected experiments to residual and dynamic accelerations. This effort was redirected about half way through the ATD focusing specifically on the sensitivity of protein crystals to a realistic orbital environment. The other two thrusts of the ATD were performed at the Lewis Research Center. The first was to develop technology in the area of reactionless mechanisms and robotics to support the eventual development of robotics for servicing microgravity science experiments. This activity was completed in 1990. The second was to develop vibration isolation and damping technology providing protection for sensitive science experiments. In conjunction with the this activity, two workshops were held. The results of these were summarized and are included in this report.

Lubomski, Joseph F.↗

High-Performance Data Analysis Tools for Sun-Earth Connection Missions

The data analysis tool of choice for many Sun-Earth Connection missions is the Interactive Data Language (IDL) by ITT VIS. The increasing amount of data produced by these missions and the increasing complexity of image processing algorithms requires access to higher computing power. Parallel computing is a cost-effective way to increase the speed of computation, but algorithms oftentimes have to be modified to take advantage of parallel systems. Enhancing IDL to work on clusters gives scientists access to increased performance in a familiar programming environment. The goal of this project was to enable IDL applications to benefit from both computing clusters as well as graphics processing units (GPUs) for accelerating data analysis tasks. The tool suite developed in this project enables scientists now to solve demanding data analysis problems in IDL that previously required specialized software, and it allows them to be solved orders of magnitude faster than on conventional PCs. The tool suite consists of three components: (1) TaskDL, a software tool that simplifies the creation and management of task farms, collections of tasks that can be processed independently and require only small amounts of data communication; (2) mpiDL, a tool that allows IDL developers to use the Message Passing Interface (MPI) inside IDL for problems that require large amounts of data to be exchanged among multiple processors; and (3) GPULib, a tool that simplifies the use of GPUs as mathematical coprocessors from within IDL. mpiDL is unique in its support for the full MPI standard and its support of a broad range of MPI implementations. GPULib is unique in enabling users to take advantage of an inexpensive piece of hardware, possibly already installed in their computer, and achieve orders of magnitude faster execution time for numerically complex algorithms. TaskDL enables the simple setup and management of task farms on compute clusters. The products developed in this project have the potential to interact, so one can build a cluster of PCs, each equipped with a GPU, and use mpiDL to communicate between the nodes and GPULib to accelerate the computations on each node.

Messmer, Peter↗

Effect of KOH concentration on LEO cycle life of IPV nickel-hydrogen flight cells-update 2

An update of validation test results confirming the breakthrough in low earth orbit (LEO) cycle life of nickel-hydrogen cells containing 26 percent KOH electrolyte is presented. A breakthrough in the LEO cycle life of individual pressure vessel (IPV nickel-hydrogen cells has been previously reported. The cycle life of boiler plate cells containing 26 percent potassium hydroxide (KOH) electrolyte was about 40 000 LEO cycles compared to 3500 cycles for cells containing 31 percent KOH. This test was conducted at Hughes Aircraft Company under a NASA Lewis contract. The purpose was to investigate the effect of KOH concentration on cycle life. The cycle regime was a stressful accelerated LEO, which consisted of a 27.5 min charge followed by a 17.5 min discharge (2x normal rate). The depth of discharge (DOD) was 80 percent. The cell temperature was maintained at 23 C. The boiler plate test results are in the process of being validated using flight hardware and real time LEO test at the Naval Weapons Support Center (NWSC), Crane, Indiana under a NASA Lewis Contract. Six 48 Ah Hughes recirculation design IPV nickel-hydrogen flight battery cells are being evaluated. Three of the cells contain 26 percent KOH (test cells), and three contain 31 percent KOH (control cells). They are undergoing real time LEO cycle life testing. The cycle regime is a 90-min LEO orbit consisting of a 54-min charge followed by a 36-min discharge. The depth-of-discharge is 80 percent. The cell temperature is maintained at 10 C. The three 31 percent KOH cells failed (cycles 3729, 4165, and 11355). One of the 26 percent KOH cells failed at cycle 15314. The other two 26 percent KOH cells were cycled for over 16600 cycles during the continuing test.

Smithrick, John J.↗

Integration Process for the Habitat Demonstration Unit

The Habitat Demonstration Unit (HDU) is an experimental exploration habitat technology and architecture test platform designed for analog demonstration activities The HDU project has required a team to integrate a variety of contributions from NASA centers and outside collaborators and poses a challenge in integrating these disparate efforts into a cohesive architecture To complete the development of the HDU from conception in June 2009 to rollout for operations in July 2010, a cohesive integration strategy has been developed to integrate the various systems of HDU and the payloads, such as the Geology Lab, that those systems will support The utilization of interface design standards and uniquely tailored reviews have allowed for an accelerated design process Scheduled activities include early fit-checks and the utilization of a Habitat avionics test bed prior to equipment installation into HDU A coordinated effort to utilize modeling and simulation systems has aided in design and integration concept development Modeling tools have been effective in hardware systems layout, cable routing and length estimation, and human factors analysis Decision processes on the shell development including the assembly sequence and the transportation have been fleshed out early on HDU to maximize the efficiency of both integration and field operations Incremental test operations leading up to an integrated systems test allows for an orderly systems test program The HDU will begin its journey as an emulation of a Pressurized Excursion Module (PEM) for 2010 field testing and then may evolve to a Pressurized Core Module (PCM) for 2011 and later field tests, depending on agency architecture decisions The HDU deployment will vary slightly from current lunar architecture plans to include developmental hardware and software items and additional systems called opportunities for technology demonstration One of the HDU challenges has been designing to be prepared for the integration of presently unanticipated systems Results of the HDU field tests will influence future designs of habitat systems.

Gill, Tracy↗

Quiet Spike(TradeMark) Build-up Ground Vibration Testing Approach

Flight tests of Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation s Quiet Spike(TradeMark) hardware were recently completed on the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center F-15B airplane. NASA Dryden uses a modified F-15B airplane as a testbed aircraft to cost-effectively fly flight research experiments that are typically mounted underneath the F-15B airplane, along the fuselage centerline. For the Quiet Spike(TradeMark) experiment, however, instead of a centerline mounting, a relatively long forward-pointing boom was attached to the radar bulkhead of the F-15B airplane. The Quiet Spike(TradeMark) experiment is a stepping-stone to airframe structural morphing technologies designed to mitigate the sonic-boom strength of business jets over land. The Quiet Spike(TradeMark) boom is a concept in which an aircraft s noseboom would be extended prior to supersonic acceleration. This morphing effectively lengthens the aircraft, thus reducing the peak sonic-boom amplitude, but is also expected to partition the otherwise strong bow shock into a series of reduced-strength, noncoalescing shocklets. Prior to flying the Quiet Spike(TradeMark) experiment on the F-15B airplane several ground vibration tests were required to understand the Quiet Spike(TradeMark) modal characteristics and coupling effects with the F-15B airplane. However, due to the flight hardware availability and compressed schedule requirements, a "traditional" ground vibration test of the mated F-15B Quiet Spike(TradeMark) ready-for- flight configuration did not leave sufficient time available for the finite element model update and flutter analyses before flight testing. Therefore, a "nontraditional" ground vibration testing approach was taken. This paper provides an overview of each phase of the "nontraditional" ground vibration testing completed for the Quiet Spike(TradeMark) project which includes the test setup details, instrumentation layout, and modal results obtained in support of the structural dynamic modeling and flutter analyses.

Spivey, Natalie D.↗

Long life assurance study for manned spacecraft long life hardware. Volume 4: Special long life assurance studies

Guidelines for the selection of equipment to be used for manned spacecraft in order to assure a five year maintenance-free service life were developed. A special study was conducted to determine the adequacy of the procedures used to determine the quality and effectiveness of various components. The subjects examined are: (1) temperature cycling for acceptance of electronic assemblies; (2) accelerated testing techniques; (3) electronic part screening techniques; (4) electronic part derating practices; (5) vibration life extension of printed circuit board assemblies; and (6) tolerance funnelling and test requirements.

Source record↗

An examination of anticipated g-jitter on Space Station and its effects on materials processes

This study is concerned with the effects of g-jitter, the residual acceleration aboard spacecraft, on selected classes of materials processes. In particular, the anticipated acceleration environment aboard Space Station Freedom (SSF) and its potential effects are analyzed, but the topic is covered with a sufficient level of generality as to apply to other processes and to other vehicles as well. Some of the key findings of this study include: The present acceleration specifications for SSF are inadequate to assure a quality level low-g environment. The local g vector orientation is an extremely sensitive parameter for certain key processes, but can not be controlled to within the desired tolerance. Therefore, less emphasis should be placed upon achieving a tight control of SSF attitude, but more emphasis should be focused on reducing the overall level of the g-jitter magnitude. Melt-based crystal growth may not be successfully processed in the relatively noisy environment of a large inhabited space structure. Growth from vapor or from solution appears more favorable. A smaller space structure and/or a free flyer can provide better alternatives in terms of g-jitter considerations. A high priority (including budgetary) should be given to coordinated efforts among researchers, SSF designers, and equipment contractors, to develop practical experiment-specific sensitivity requirements. Combined focused numerical simulations and experiments with well-resolved acceleration measurements should be vigorously pursued for developing reliable experiment-specific sensitivity data. Appendices provide an extensive cross-referenced bibliography, a discussion of the merits offered by g-jitter analysis techniques, as well as definitions of relevant nondimensional quantities and a brief description of available accelerometry hardware.

Nelson, Emily S.↗

STS-78 Space Shuttle Mission Report

The STS-78 Space Shuttle Program Mission Report summarizes the Payload activities as well as the Orbiter, External Tank (ET), Solid Rocket Booster (SRB), Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM), and the Space Shuttle main engine (SSME) systems performance during the seventy-eighth flight of the Space Shuttle Program, the fifty-third flight since the return-to-flight, and the twentieth flight of the Orbiter Columbia (OV-102). In addition to the Orbiter, the flight vehicle consisted of an ET that was designated ET-79; three SSME's that were designated as serial numbers 2041, 2039, and 2036 in positions 1, 2, and 3, respectively; and two SRB's that were designated BI-081. The RSRM's, designated RSRM-55, were installed in each SRB and the individual RSRM's were designated as 360L055A for the left SRB, and 360L055B for the right SRB. The STS-78 Space Shuttle Program Mission Report fulfills the Space Shuttle Program requirement as documented in NSTS 07700, Volume 7, Appendix E. The requirement stated in that document is that each organizational element supporting the Program will report the results of their hardware (and software) evaluation and mission performance plus identify all related in-flight anomalies. The primary objective of this flight was to successfully perform the planned operations of the Life and Microgravity Spacelab experiments. The secondary objectives of this flight were to complete the operations of the Orbital Acceleration Research Experiment (OARE), Biological Research in Canister Unit-Block II (BRIC), and the Shuttle Amateur Radio Experiment II-Configuration C (SAREX-II). The STS-78 mission was planned as a 16-day, plus one day flight plus two contingency days, which were available for weather avoidance or Orbiter contingency operations. The sequence of events for the STS-78 mission is shown in Table 1, and the Space Shuttle Vehicle Management Office Problem Tracking List is shown in Table 2. The Government Furnished Equipment/Flight Crew Equipment (GFE/FCE) Problem Tracking List is shown in Table 3. The Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Problem Tracking List is shown in Table 4. Appendix A lists the sources of data, both formal and informal, that were used to prepare this report. Appendix B provides the definition of acronyms and abbreviations used throughout the report. All times during the flight are given in Greenwich mean time (G.m.t.) and mission elapsed time (MET).

Fricke, Robert W., Jr.↗

Bayes Analysis and Reliability Implications of Stress-Rupture Testing a Kevlar/Epoxy COPV Using Temperature and Pressure Acceleration

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) that have survived a long service time under pressure generally must be recertified before service is extended. Flight certification is dependent on the reliability analysis to quantify the risk of stress rupture failure in existing flight vessels. Full certification of this reliability model would require a statistically significant number of lifetime tests to be performed and is impractical given the cost and limited flight hardware for certification testing purposes. One approach to confirm the reliability model is to perform a stress rupture test on a flight COPV. Currently, testing of such a Kevlar49 (Dupont)/epoxy COPV is nearing completion. The present paper focuses on a Bayesian statistical approach to analyze the possible failure time results of this test and to assess the implications in choosing between possible model parameter values that in the past have had significant uncertainty. The key uncertain parameters in this case are the actual fiber stress ratio at operating pressure, and the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime; the former has been uncertain due to ambiguities in interpreting the original and a duplicate burst test. The latter has been uncertain due to major differences between COPVs in the database and the actual COPVs in service. Any information obtained that clarifies and eliminates uncertainty in these parameters will have a major effect on the predicted reliability of the service COPVs going forward. The key result is that the longer the vessel survives, the more likely the more optimistic stress ratio model is correct. At the time of writing, the resulting effect on predicted future reliability is dramatic, increasing it by about one "nine," that is, reducing the predicted probability of failure by an order of magnitude. However, testing one vessel does not change the uncertainty on the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime since testing several vessels would be necessary.

Phoenix, S. Leigh↗