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At least 235 records · Page 13

Net Metering and Market Feedback Loops: Exploring the Impact of Retail Rate Design on Distributed PV Deployment

The substantial increase in deployment of customer-sited solar photovoltaics (PV) in the United States has been driven by a combination of steeply declining costs, financing innovations, and supportive policies. Among those supportive policies is net metering, which in most states effectively allows customers to receive compensation for distributed PV generation at the full retail electricity price. The current design of retail electricity rates and the presence of net metering have elicited concerns that the possible under-recovery of fixed utility costs from PV system owners may lead to a feedback loop of increasing retail prices that accelerate PV adoption and further rate increases. However, a separate and opposing feedback loop could offset this effect: increased PV deployment may lead to a shift in the timing of peak-period electricity prices that could reduce the bill savings received under net metering where time-varying retail electricity rates are used, thereby dampening further PV adoption. In this paper, we examine the impacts of these two competing feedback dynamics on U.S. distributed PV deployment through 2050 for both residential and commercial customers, across states. Our results indicate that, at the aggregate national level, the two feedback effects nearly offset one another and therefore produce a modest net effect, although their magnitude and direction vary by customer segment and by state. We also model aggregate PV deployment trends under various rate designs and net-metering rules, accounting for feedback dynamics. Our results demonstrate that future adoption of distributed PV is highly sensitive to retail rate structures. Whereas flat, time-invariant rates with net metering lead to higher aggregate national deployment levels than the current mix of rate structures (+5% in 2050), rate structures with higher monthly fixed customer charges or PV compensation at levels lower than the full retail rate can dramatically erode aggregate customer adoption of PV (from -14% to -61%, depending on the design). Moving towards time-varying rates, on the other hand, may accelerate near- and medium-term deployment (through 2030), but is found to slow adoption in the longer term (-22% in 2050).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Quantifying Uncertainties in Earth's Energy Budget by Cloud Feedback and Ocean Heat Uptake Using E3SM-Slab Ocean Configurations

In order to improve predictive skills of Earth System Model, we need to better understand processes that control Earth's energy budget via ocean, atmosphere, and cryosphere interactions. Simulated energy budget in comprehensive Earth System Models shows a wide range, leading to large uncertainties in predicting Earth system dynamic and thermodynamic variations and associated social-economic impacts. Uncertainties in cloud feedbacks have been identified as the main cause of the large inter-model spread, but oceanic adjustments, especially those associated with ocean heat uptake (OHU) and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), also play an important role. In this proposed work, we focus on understanding the individual and combined roles of cloud feedbacks and ocean adjustments on modulating Earth's energy balance. This research is motivated by our overarching hypothesis that oceanic adjustment is a key source of uncertainty, in addition to those associated with the cloud feedbacks; further, the ocean adjustment and associated OHU work through the cloud feedbacks to modulate Earth's energy budget and temperature variations. We test this hypothesis using numerical experiments where we systematically enable and disable cloud feedbacks in conjunction with perturbations to OHU.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Reinforcement Learning-based Output Structured Feedback for Distributed Multi-Area Power System Frequency Control

Load frequency control (LFC) is a key factor to maintain the stable frequency in multi-area power systems. As the modern power systems evolve from centralized to decentralized paradigm, LFC needs to consider the decentralized scheme that considers limited information from the information-exchange graph for the generator control of each interconnected area. This paper aims to solve a data-driven constrained LQR problem with mean-variance risk constraints and output structured feedback, and applies this framework to solve the LFC problem in multi-area power systems. By reformulating the constrained optimization problem into a minimax problem, the stochastic gradient descent max-oracle (SGDmax) algorithm with zero-order policy gradient (ZOPG) is adopted to find the optimal feedback gain from the learning, while guaranteeing the convergence. In addition, to improve the adaptation of the proposed learning method to new or varying models, we construct an emulator grid that approximates the dynamics of a physical grid and performs training based on this model. Once the feedback gain is obtained from the emulator grid, it is applied to the physical grid with a robustness test to check whether the controller from the approximated emulator applies to the actual system. Numerical tests show that the obtained feedback controller can successfully control the frequency of each area, while mitigating the uncertainty from the loads, with reliable robustness that ensures the adaptability of the obtained feedback gain to the actual physical grid.

Kwon, Kyung-bin↗

The impact of feedback during massive star formation by core accretion

We study feedback during massive star formation using semi-analytic methods, considering the effects of disk winds, radiation pressure, photoevaporation, and stellar winds, while following protostellar evolution in collapsing massive gas cores. We find that disk winds are the dominant feedback mechanism setting star formation efficiencies (SFEs) from initial cores of ∼0.3–0.5. However, radiation pressure is also significant to widen the outflow cavity causing reductions of SFE compared to the disk-wind only case, especially for >100 M{sub ⊙} star formation at clump mass surface densities Σ{sub cl}≲0.3 g cm{sup −2}. Photoevaporation is of relatively minor importance due to dust attenuation of ionizing photons. Stellar winds have even smaller effects during the accretion stage. For core masses M{sub c}≃10–1000 M{sub ⊙} and Σ{sub cl}≃0.1–3 g cm{sup −2}, we find the overall SFE to be ε-bar {sub ∗f}=0.31(R{sub c}/0.1pc){sup −0.39}, potentially a useful sub-grid star formation model in simulations that can resolve pre-stellar core radii, R{sub c}=0.057(M{sub c}/60M{sub ⊙}){sup 1/2}(Σ{sub cl}/gcm{sup −2}){sup −1/2} pc. The decline of SFE with M {sub c} is gradual with no evidence for a maximum stellar-mass set by feedback processes up to stellar masses of m{sub ∗}∼300 M{sub ⊙}. We thus conclude that the observed truncation of the high-mass end of the IMF is shaped mostly by the pre-stellar core mass function or internal stellar processes. To form massive stars with the observed maximum masses of ∼150–300M{sub ⊙}, initial core masses need to be ≳500–1000 M{sub ⊙}. We also apply our feedback model to zero-metallicity primordial star formation, showing that, in the absence of dust, photoevaporation staunches accretion at ∼50 M{sub ⊙}. Our model implies radiative feedback is most significant at metallicities ∼10{sup −2}Z{sub ⊙}, since both radiation pressure and photoevaporation are effective in this regime.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Spatial Decorrelation of Young Stars and Dense Gas as a Probe of the Star Formation–Feedback Cycle in Galaxies

The spatial decorrelation of dense molecular gas and young stars observed on ≲1 kpc scales in nearby galaxies indicates rapid dispersal of star-forming regions by stellar feedback. In this work, we explore the sensitivity of this decorrelation to different processes controlling the structure of the interstellar medium, the abundance of molecular gas, star formation, and feedback in a suite of simulations of an isolated dwarf galaxy with structural properties similar to NGC 300 that self-consistently model radiative transfer and molecular chemistry. Our fiducial simulation reproduces the magnitude of decorrelation and its scale dependence measured in NGC 300, and we show that this agreement is due to different aspects of feedback, including H 2 dissociation, gas heating by the locally variable UV field, early mechanical feedback, and supernovae. In particular, early radiative and mechanical feedback affects the correlation on ≲100 pc scales, while supernovae play a significant role on ≳ 100 pc scales. The correlation is also sensitive to the choice of the local star formation efficiency per free fall time, ϵ ff , which provides a strong observational constraint on ϵ ff when the global star formation rate is independent of its value. Finally, we explicitly show that the degree of correlation between the peaks of molecular gas and star formation density is directly related to the distribution of the lifetimes of star-forming regions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Bridging Scales in Black Hole Accretion and Feedback: Relativistic Jet Linking the Horizon to the Host Galaxy

Simulating black hole (BH) accretion and feedback from the BH horizon to galactic scales is extremely challenging, as it involves a vast range of scales. Recently, our multizone method has successfully achieved global dynamical steady states of hot accretion flows in 3D general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations by tracking the bidirectional interaction between a nonspinning BH and its host galaxy. In this paper, we present technical improvements to the method and apply it to spin a * = 0.9 BHs, which power relativistic jets. We first test the new multizone setup with a smaller Bondi radius, R B ≈ 400 r g , where r g is the gravitational radius. The strongly magnetized accretion launches a relativistic jet with an intermediate feedback efficiency η ∼ 30%, in between that of a prograde (η ∼ 100%) and retrograde (η ∼ 10%) torus. Interestingly, both prograde and retrograde simulations also eventually converge to the same intermediate efficiency when evolved long enough, as accumulated magnetic fields remove gas rotation. We then extend strongly magnetized simulations to larger Bondi radii, R B ≈ 2 × 10 3 , 2 × 10 4 , 2 × 10 5 r g . We find that the BH accretion rate $\dot{M}$ is suppressed with respect to the Bondi rate as $\dot{M}_{\textrm{B}}$ as $\dot{M}/\dot{M}_{\textrm{B}} ∝ R_{\textrm{B}}^{-1/2}$. However, despite some variability, the time-averaged feedback efficiency remains at η ∼ 30%, independent of R B . This suggests that BH feedback efficiency in hot accretion flows is mainly governed by the BH spin (a * ) rather than by the galactic properties (R B ). From these first-principles simulations, we provide a feedback subgrid prescription for cosmological simulations: $\dot{E}_{\textrm{fb}} = 2$ x $10^{-3}[R_{\textrm{B}}/(2$ x $10^5 r_g)]^{-1/2}$ $\dot{M}_{\textrm{B}}c^2$ for BH spin a * = 0.9.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance–elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet

We apply a new parameterisation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) feedback between surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) and surface elevation in the MAR regional climate model (Edwards et al., 2014) to projections of future climate change using five ice sheet models (ISMs). The MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional: Fettweis, 2007) climate projections are for 2000–2199, forced by the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 global climate models (GCMs) under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The additional sea level contribution due to the SMB–elevation feedback averaged over five ISM projections for ECHAM5 and three for HadCM3 is 4.3% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 1.8–6.9%) at 2100, and 9.6% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 3.6–16.0%) at 2200. In all results the elevation feedback is significantly positive, amplifying the GrIS sea level contribution relative to the MAR projections in which the ice sheet topography is fixed: the lower bounds of our 95% credibility intervals (CIs) for sea level contributions are larger than the "no feedback" case for all ISMs and GCMs. Our method is novel in sea level projections because we propagate three types of modelling uncertainty – GCM and ISM structural uncertainties, and elevation feedback parameterisation uncertainty – along the causal chain, from SRES scenario to sea level, within a coherent experimental design and statistical framework. The relative contributions to uncertainty depend on the timescale of interest. At 2100, the GCM uncertainty is largest, but by 2200 both the ISM and parameterisation uncertainties are larger. We also perform a perturbed parameter ensemble with one ISM to estimate the shape of the projected sea level probability distribution; our results indicate that the probability density is slightly skewed towards higher sea level contributions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cortical potentials evoked by confirming and disconfirming feedback following an auditory discrimination.

Vertex potentials elicited by visual feedback signals following an auditory intensity discrimination have been studied with eight subjects. Feedback signals which confirmed the prior sensory decision elicited small P3s, while disconfirming feedback elicited P3s that were larger. On the average, the latency of P3 was also found to increase with increasing disparity between the judgment and the feedback information. These effects were part of an overall dichotomy in wave shape following confirming vs disconfirming feedback. These findings are incorporated in a general model of the role of P3 in perceptual decision making.

Squires, K. C.↗

Design of turbofan engine controls using output feedback regulator theory

A multivariable control design procedure based on output feedback regulator (OFR) theory is applied to the F100 turbofan engine. Results for the OFR design are compared to a design based on linear quadratic regulator (LQR) theory. This LQR design was obtained as part of the F100 Multivariable Control Synthesis (MVCS) program. In the MVCS program the LQR feedback control was designed in a reduced dimension state space and then applied to the original system. However, the OFR feedback control is designed in the full order state space and thus eliminates any need for model reduction techniques. Using the performance measure and control structure of the MVCS program LQR design, an equivalent OFR feedback control is obtained. The flexibility of the OFR as a control design procedure is demonstrated and differing feedback control structures are evaluated.

Merrill, W. C.↗

Optical feedback effects on the performance of Pb/1-x/Sn/x/Se semiconductor lasers

The effects of optical feedback on the performance of Pb(1-x)Sn(x)Se semiconductor lasers are reported. Experimental results are presented to demonstrate that uncontrolled optical feedback can occur from optics external to the laser cavity and that these external optical elements can result in the formation of a composite cavity. This composite cavity can sustain a number of narrow closely spaced emission modes with the spectral characteristics of these modes dependent upon the parameters of the cavity. With weak feedback, the spectral width of the amplitude envelope of the new lasing modes resembles that of the original laser mode with no optical feedback. With strongly coupled feedback the envelope of the external cavity modes substantially broadens the apparent linewidth of the laser. It is shown that these effects can be eliminated, and, moreover, they offer the potential for obtaining spectrally narrow single-mode emission from Pb-salt lasers through the use of carefully designed external cavities.

Harward, C. N.↗

Effect of ice-albedo feedback on global sensitivity in a one-dimensional radiative-convective climate model

The feedback between the ice albedo and temperature is included in a one-dimensional radiative-convective climate model. The effect of this feedback on global sensitivity to changes in solar constant is studied for the current climate conditions. This ice-albedo feedback amplifies global sensitivity by 26 and 39%, respectively, for assumptions of fixed cloud altitude and fixed cloud temperature. The global sensitivity is not affected significantly if the latitudinal variations of mean solar zenith angle and cloud cover are included in the global model. The differences in global sensitivity between one-dimensional radiative-convective models and energy balance models are examined. It is shown that the models are in close agreement when the same feedback mechanisms are included. The one-dimensional radiative-convective model with ice-albedo feedback included is used to compute the equilibrium ice line as a function of solar constant.

Wang, W.-C.↗

Feedback control for penetrating a downburst

Feedback logic is given that produces satisfactory penetration of an aircraft through a severe downburst. The logic has two parts: (1) A switch that calls for full throttle and tight climb-rate-hold feedback logic when the magnitude of headwind-rate exceeds a threshold level; this switch stays on until re-set by the pilot after penetration of the downburst. (2) A tight climb-rate-hold autopilot, using feedback of pitch-angle to angle-of-attack. After penetration, recovery to steady climbing flight is aided by using feedback of airspeed deviation to throttle. Insights on control strategy are gained from an analysis of energy changes during flight through a downburst. Closed-loop simulations are given for a 727 aircraft penetrating severe downbursts on take-off. Boeing's recommendation of constant pitch angle was confirmed as an excellent feedback control strategy.

Bryson, Arthur E., Jr.↗

Research on output feedback control

A summary is presented of the main results obtained during the course of research on output feedback control. The term output feedback is used to denote a controller design approach which does not rely on an observer to estimate the states of the system. Thus, the order of the controller is fixed, and can even be zero order, which amounts to constant gain ouput feedback. The emphasis has been on optimal output feedback. That is, a fixed order controller is designed based on minimizing a suitably chosen quadratic performance index. A number of problem areas that arise in this context have been addressed. These include developing suitable methods for selecting an index of performance, both time domain and frequency domain methods for achieving robustness of the closed loop system, developing canonical forms to achieve a minimal parameterization for the controller, two time scale design formulations for ill-conditioned systems, and the development of convergent numerical algorithms for solving the output feedback problem.

Calise, Anthony J.↗

Cloud-radiation interactions - Effects of cirrus optical thickness feedbacks

The paper is concerned with a cloud-radiation feedback mechanism which may be an important component of the climate changes expected from increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace greenhouse gases. A major result of the study is that cirrus cloud optical thickness feedbacks may indeed tend to increase the surface warming due to trace gas increases. However, the positive feedback from cirrus appears to be generally weaker than the negative effects due to lower clouds. The results just confirm those of earlier research indicating that the net effect of cloud optical thickness feedbacks may be a negative feedback which may substantially (by a factor of about 2) reduce the surface warming due to the doubling of CO2, even in the presence of cirrus clouds.

Somerville, Richard C. J.↗

Bode Integrals And Feedback Control Systems

Feedback maximized in desired frequency ranges. Four of Bode integrals constitute basis of method of optimizing design of feedback control system. Integrals express frequency-domain relationships among, and constraints upon, various measures of attenuation and phase in feedback amplifiers. Applicable to similar magnitudes and phases in feedback control systems. Also used to design feedback compensators to maintain stability and performance in presence of disturbances, noise, and uncertainties in characteristics of plant to be controlled.

Kissel, Glen J.↗

Multivariable control of the Space Shuttle Remote Manipulator System using linearization by state feedback

This thesis develops and demonstrates an approach to nonlinear control system design using linearization by state feedback. The design provides improved transient response behavior allowing faster maneuvering of payloads by the SRMS. Modeling uncertainty is accounted for by using a second feedback loop designed around the feedback linearized dynamics. A classical feedback loop is developed to provide the easy implementation required for the relatively small on board computers. Feedback linearization also allows the use of higher bandwidth model based compensation in the outer loop, since it helps maintain stability in the presence of the nonlinearities typically neglected in model based designs.

Gettman, Chang-Ching LO↗

A simulation of the intracluster medium with feedback from cluster galaxies

We detail method and report first results from a three-dimensional hydrodynamical and N-body simulation of the formation and evolution of a Coma-sized cluster of galaxies, with the intent of studying the history of the hot, X-ray emitting intracluster medium. Cluster gas, galaxies, and dark matter are included in the model. The galaxies and dark matter fell gravitational forces; the cluster gas also undergoes hydrodynamical effects such as shock heating and PdV work. For the first time in three dimensions, we include modeling of ejection of processed gas from the simulated galaxies by winds, including heating and heavy element enrichment. For comparison, we employ a `pure infall' simulation using the same initial conditions but with no galaxies or winds. We employ an extreme ejection history for galactic feedback in order to define the boundary of likely models. As expected, feedback raises the entropy of the intracluster gas, preventing it from collapsing to densities as high as those attained in the infall model. The effect is more pronounced in subclusters formed at high redshift. The cluster with feedback is always less X-ray luminous, but experiences more rapid luminosity evolution, than the pure infall cluster. Even employing an extreme ejection model, the final gas temperature is only approximately 15% larger than in the infall model. The radial temperature profile is very nearly isothermal within 1.5 Mpc. The cluster galaxies in the feedback model have a velocity dispersion approximately 15% lower than the dark matter. This results in the true ratio of specific energies in galaxies to gas being less than one, beta(sub spec) approximately 0.7. The infall model predicts beta(sub spec) approximately 1.2. Large excursions in these values occur over time, following the complex dynamical history of the cluster. The morphology of the X-ray emission is little affected by feedback. The emission profiles of both clusters are well described by the standard beta-model with beta(sub fit) approximately equal to 0.7 - 0.9. X-ray mass estimates based on the assumptions of hydrostatic equilibrium and the applicability of the beta-model are quite accurate in both cases. A strong, radial iron abundance gradient is present, which develops as a consequence of the steepening of the galaxy density profile over time. Spectroscopic observations using nonimaging detectors with wide (approximately 45 min) fields of view dramatically smear the gradient. Observations with arcminute resolution, made available with the ASCA satellite, would readily resolve the gradient.

Metzler, Christopher A.↗

Application of a Virtual Reactivity Feedback Control Loop in Non-Nuclear Testing of a Fast Spectrum Reactor

For a compact, fast-spectrum reactor, reactivity feedback is dominated by core deformation at elevated temperature. Given the use of accurate deformation measurement techniques, it is possible to simulate nuclear feedback in non-nuclear electrically heated reactor tests. Implementation of simulated reactivity feedback in response to measured deflection is being tested at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center Early Flight Fission Test Facility (EFF-TF). During tests of the SAFE-100 reactor prototype, core deflection was monitored using a high resolution camera. "virtual" reactivity feedback was accomplished by applying the results of Monte Carlo calculations (MCNPX) to core deflection measurements; the computational analysis was used to establish the reactivity worth of van'ous core deformations. The power delivered to the SAFE-100 prototype was then dusted accordingly via kinetics calculations, The work presented in this paper will demonstrate virtual reactivity feedback as core power was increased from 1 kilowatt(sub t), to 10 kilowatts(sub t), held approximately constant at 10 kilowatts (sub t), and then allowed to decrease based on the negative thermal reactivity coefficient.

Bragg-Sitton, Shannon M.↗