Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “extreme event”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13

Pulling Results Out of Thin Air: Four Years of Ozone and Greenhouse Gas Measurements by the Alpha Jet Atmospheric Experiment (AJAX)

The Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX) has been measuring atmospheric ozone, carbon dioxide, methane and meteorological parameters from near the surface to 8000 m since January 2011. The main goals are to study photochemical ozone production and the impacts of extreme events on western US air quality, provide data to support satellite observations and aid in the quantification of emission sources e.g. wildfires, urban outflow, diary and oil and gas. The aircraft is based at Moffett Field and flies multiple times a month to sample vertical profiles at selected sites in California and Nevada, providing long-term data records at these sites. AJAX is also uniquely positioned to launch with short notice sampling flights in rapid response to extreme events e.g. the 2013 Yosemite Rim fire. This talk will focus on the impacts of vertical transport on surface air quality, and investigation of emission sources from diaries and wildfires.

AJAX↗

Toward indicators of the performance of US infrastructures under climate change risks

Built infrastructures are increasingly disrupted by climate-related extreme events. Being able to monitor what climate change implies for US infrastructures is of considerable importance to all levels of decision-makers. A capacity to develop cross-cutting, widely applicable indicators for more than a dozen different kinds of infrastructure, however, is severely limited at present. The development of such indicators must be considered an ongoing activity that will require expansion and refinement. A number of recent consensus reports suggest four priorities for indicators that portray the impacts of climate change, climate-related extreme events, and other driving forces on infrastructure. These are changes in the reliability of infrastructure services and the implications for costs; changes in the resilience of infrastructures to climate and other stresses; impacts due to the interdependencies of infrastructures; and ongoing adaptation in infrastructures.

adaptation, indicators, infrastructure↗

Tracking the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai Eruption Stratospheric Aerosol and Trace Gas Plumes Using Machine Learning

On January 15, 2022, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai (hereafter, Hunga Tonga) submarine volcano had an explosive eruption that thrusted ash, gases, and water vapor through the troposphere into the stratosphere and mesosphere. Previous studies manually tracked the aerosol and trace gas plumes over time across different positions in the southern hemisphere. Using data retrieved from low earth orbiting satellite instruments (e.g., OMPS, OMI, and CALIPSO), this research demonstrates how open-source machine learning (ML) models, like Meta’s Segment Anything Model (SAM), with prompt engineering can perform automatic plume tracking following the Hunga Tonga eruption. This extensible methodology, and modular data processing and modeling pipeline using NASA Earthdata and Openscapes, establishes a framework for systematically and rapidly studying extreme events, including volcanic eruptions and large-scale wildfires. By combining advanced machine learning techniques, such as SAM’s zero-shot learning, with large volumes of remote sensing data, this work demonstrates how AI and open science can accelerate research and generate actionable results. The tools and technologies presented here can help translate earth science to action from NASA’s current and future Earth observing satellite missions (e.g., the Atmosphere Observing System (AOS)), and assist researchers and stakeholders in understanding, mapping, and responding to natural disasters and extreme events in a changing world.

David M. Giles↗

Radiative Characteristics of Aerosol During Extreme Fire Event over Siberia in Summer 2012

Microphysical and optical properties of aerosol were studied during a mega-fire event in summer 2012 over Siberia using ground-based measurements of spectral solarradiation at the AERONET site in Tomsk and satellite observations. The data were analyzed using multi-year (2003-2013) measurements of aerosol characteristics under back-ground conditions and for less intense fires, differing in burning biomass type, stage of fire, remoteness from observation site, etc. (ordinary smoke). In June-August 2012, the average aerosol optical depth (AOD, 500 nm) had been 0.95+/-0.86, about a factor of 6 larger than background values (0.16+/-0.08), and a factor of 2.5 larger than in ordinary smoke. The AOD values were extremely high on 24-28 July and reached 3-5. A comparison with satellite observations showed that ground-based measurements in the region of Tomsk not only reflect the local AOD features, but are also characteristic for the territory of Western Siberia as a whole. Single scattering albedo (SSA, 440 nm) in this period ranged from 0.91 to 0.99 with an average of approx. 0.96 in the entire wavelength range of 440-1020 nm. The increase in absorptance of aerosol particles (SSA(440 nm)=0.92) and decrease in SSA with wavelength observed in ordinary smoke agree with the data from multi-year observations in analogous situations in the boreal zone of USA and Canada. Volume aerosol size distribution in extreme and ordinary smoke had a bimodal character with significant prevalence of fine-mode particles, but in summer 2012 the mean median radius and the width of the fine-mode distribution somewhat increased. In contrast to data from multi-year observations, in summer 2012 an increase in the volume concentration and median radius of the coarse mode was observed with growing AOD.

Zhuravleva, Tatiana B.↗

Advancing the understanding of coastal disturbances with a network-of-networks approach

Coastal ecosystems are at the nexus of many high priority challenges in environmental sciences, including predicting the influences of compounding disturbances exacerbated by climate change on biogeochemical cycling. Extreme events such as hurricanes, flooding, landslides, and wildfires influence biogeochemical cycling in these systems. However, while research in coastal science is fundamentally transdisciplinary – as drivers of biogeochemical and ecological processes often span scientific and environmental domains – traditional place-based approaches are still often employed to understand coastal ecosystems. In this perspective, we argue that integration among distributed research sites from a macrosystem perspective is crucial to understand how compounding disturbances affect coastal ecosystems. We identify a roadmap for the implementation of an integrated network-of-networks framework that leverages existing research network sites in coastal ecosystems to advance continental-scale process understanding for studying extreme events and global change. We also identify specific ways that existing research efforts can maximize mutual benefit, and where additional infrastructure investments might increase return-on-investment along the coast, using the coastal continental US as a case study.

Myers-Pigg, Allison N. [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)]↗

Resilient cooling strategies – A critical review and qualitative assessment

The global effects of climate change will increase the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as heatwaves and power outages, which have consequences for buildings and their cooling systems. Buildings and their cooling systems should be designed and operated to be resilient under such events to protect occupants from potentially dangerous indoor thermal conditions. This study performed a critical review on the state-of-the-art of cooling strategies, with special attention to their performance under heatwaves and power outages. We proposed a definition of resilient cooling and described four criteria for resilience—absorptive capacity, adaptive capacity, restorative capacity, and recovery speed —and used them to qualitatively evaluate the resilience of each strategy. The literature review and qualitative analyses show that to attain resilient cooling, the four resilience criteria should be considered in the design phase of a building or during the planning of retrofits. The building and relevant cooling system characteristics should be considered simultaneously to withstand extreme events. A combination of strategies with different resilience capacities, such as a passive envelope strategy coupled with a low-energy space-cooling solution, may be needed to obtain resilient cooling. Finally, a further direction for a quantitative assessment approach has been pointed out.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

PERSIANN-CCS-CDR, a 3-hourly 0.04° global precipitation climate data record for heavy precipitation studies

Accurate long-term global precipitation estimates, especially for heavy precipitation rates, at fine spatial and temporal resolutions is vital for a wide variety of climatological studies. Most of the available operational precipitation estimation datasets provide either high spatial resolution with short-term duration estimates or lower spatial resolution with long-term duration estimates. Furthermore, previous research has stressed that most of the available satellite-based precipitation products show poor performance for capturing extreme events at high temporal resolution. Therefore, there is a need for a precipitation product that reliably detects heavy precipitation rates with fine spatiotemporal resolution and a longer period of record. Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CCS-CDR) is designed to address these limitations. This dataset provides precipitation estimates at 0.04° spatial and 3-hourly temporal resolutions from 1983 to present over the global domain of 60°S to 60°N. Evaluations of PERSIANN-CCS-CDR and PERSIANN-CDR against gauge and radar observations show the better performance of PERSIANN-CCS-CDR in representing the spatiotemporal resolution, magnitude, and spatial distribution patterns of precipitation, especially for extreme events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Data-Driven Democratized Control Architecture for Regional Transmission Operators

As probably the most complicated and critical infrastructure system, U.S. power grids become increasingly vulnerable to extreme events such as cyber-attacks and severe weather, as well as higher DER penetrations and growing information mismatch among system operators, utilities (transmission or generation owners), and end-users. This paper proposes a data-driven democratized control architecture considering two democratization pathways to assist transmission system operators, with a targeted use case of developing online proactive islanding strategies. Detailed discussions on load capability profiling at transmission buses and disaggregation of DER generations are provided and illustrated with real-world utility data. By Combining network and operational constraints, transmission system operators can be equipped with new tools built on top of this architecture, to derive accurate, proactive, and strategic islanding decisions to incorporate the wide range of dynamic portfolios and needs when facing extreme events or unseen grid contingencies.

Power System Reliability, Islanding, Democratized ↗

How do intermittency and simultaneous processes obfuscate the Arctic influence on midlatitude winter extreme weather events?

Abstract Pronounced changes in the Arctic environment add a new potential driver of anomalous weather patterns in midlatitudes that affect billions of people. Recent studies of these Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages, however, state inconsistent conclusions. A source of uncertainty arises from the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Thermodynamic forcing by a rapidly warming Arctic contributes to weather events through changing surface heat fluxes and large-scale temperature and pressure gradients. But internal shifts in atmospheric dynamics—the variability of the location, strength, and character of the jet stream, blocking, and stratospheric polar vortex (SPV)—obscure the direct causes and effects. It is important to understand these associated processes to differentiate Arctic-forced variability from natural variability. For example in early winter, reduced Barents/Kara Seas sea-ice coverage may reinforce existing atmospheric teleconnections between the North Atlantic/Arctic and central Asia, and affect downstream weather in East Asia. Reduced sea ice in the Chukchi Sea can amplify atmospheric ridging of high pressure near Alaska, influencing downstream weather across North America. In late winter southward displacement of the SPV, coupled to the troposphere, leads to weather extremes in Eurasia and North America. Combined tropical and sea ice conditions can modulate the variability of the SPV. Observational evidence for Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages continues to accumulate, along with understanding of connections with pre-existing climate states. Relative to natural atmospheric variability, sea-ice loss alone has played a secondary role in Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages; the full influence of Arctic amplification remains uncertain.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Learning-Based Load Control to Support Resilient Networked Microgrid Operations

Microgrids have proven to be an effective option for increasing the resiliency of critical end-use loads during extreme events. Building on past operational experiences, some microgrid operators are examining the potential to network microgrids to further improve resiliency. However, the frequency deviations experienced on isolated microgrids during transient events, such as switching operations, step increases in load, and loss of generation, are significantly larger than those typically seen on bulk transmission systems. The larger frequency deviations can cause a loss of inverter-connected assets, resulting in a loss of power to critical end-use loads. This paper presents a method of mitigating the impact of transient events by engaging end-use loads using Grid-Friendly Appliance TM (GFA) controllers. An online, i.e., real-time, device-level algorithm is presented, which adjusts individual GFA controller frequency set-points based on the operational characteristics of each end-use load, and on the changing grid dynamic characteristics. The presented method improves the dynamic stability of the networked microgrid operations while minimizing the interruptions to end-use loads. The presented work is validated with dynamic simulations using a modified version of the IEEE 123-node test system with three microgrids, using the GridLAB-D TM simulation environment.

Radhakrishnan, Nikitha↗

A Novel Resilience-Oriented Cellular Grid Formation Approach for Distribution Systems with Behind-the-Meter Distributed Energy Resources

This paper presents a resilience-oriented cellular grid formation approach to achieve scalable and reconfigurable community microgrid operations for distribution systems with behind-the-meter distributed energy resources. A set of interconnected solar photovoltaics, energy storage systems, and load is termed as a cell, implying a subset of the grid that can operate independently using its own resources. Cells are identified such that each cell inherently has sufficient energy resources to black start and can provide a certain level of backup power for its load under the loss of utility power supply. The proposed cell formation approach builds on a unique self-organizing map-based method (SomRes) to quantify a system's resilience. Using SomRes and a non-dominated sorting-based genetic algorithm (NSGA-II), a fast and efficient cell formation algorithm is developed to identify cells in a distribution system that are resilient against extreme events. The efficacy of the proposed approach is demonstrated on a numerical model of a real distribution feeder in Colorado, United States.

distributed energy resource↗

Regional and Temporal Variability of Atmospheric River Seasonality: Influences of Detection Algorithms and Moisture Transport Dynamics

Abstract Understanding the regional and temporal variability of atmospheric river (AR) seasonality is crucial for preparedness and mitigation of extreme events. While ARs were thought to peak in winter, recent research shows they exhibit region‐specific seasonality and are heavily influenced by the chosen detection algorithm. This study examines the link between the year‐to‐year consistency of peak‐AR activity to the presence of a dominant seasonal pattern, considering both location and algorithm choice. Regions are categorized by their temporal characteristics: consistent patterns (e.g., East Asia), patterns with occasional outliers (e.g., British Columbia coast), and regions lacking a clear dominant peak season (e.g., South Atlantic, parts of Australia). Hence, not all regions display a consistent seasonal cycle of AR activity. This study quantifies the extent to which a region experiences a dominant peak season of AR activity (or lacks one) and offers insights to enhance decision‐making in water management, natural hazard preparedness, and forecasting. Furthermore, given our finding that detection algorithms influence the peak season of AR activity, we also examine two diagnostic variables representative of moisture transport to corroborate our results. Integrated vapor transport, which captures meridional and zonal moisture transport, and Moist Wave Activity, representing moisture intrusions from lower to higher latitudes, are examined. Our analysis indicates that inconsistencies in the seasonal cycle of AR activity are not solely due to discrepancies in detection algorithms but also arise from changes in moisture transport. Plain Language Summary Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are critical weather phenomena that can cause extreme events like heavy rainfall and flooding. Understanding when and where ARs are most likely to occur throughout the year is essential for preparing and responding to these events. Traditionally, ARs were thought to peak in winter, but recent studies show this varies by region. Our study helps address the challenge decision‐makers face in anticipating and preparing for AR events by providing insights into the consistency of peak seasonal patterns across different areas. Some regions, like East Asia, and the British Columbia coast, show a consistent peak season, while others, like the South Atlantic and parts of Australia, have significant year‐to‐year variations, making it hard to identify a dominant season. To better understand these changes over time, the study also examines how moisture moves in the atmosphere, using Integrated Vapor Transport (which looks at moisture movement in various directions) and Moist Wave Activity (which tracks moisture shifts from lower to higher latitudes). The findings suggest that inconsistencies in AR patterns are due not only to detection methods but also due to changes in moisture transport. Key Points The peak season of atmospheric river activity can change depending on the year in some areas Interannual variations in the peak season can make identifying a dominant season challenging for some regions Frequent shifts in peak season across years reflect inconsistencies tied to detection algorithms and to underlying dynamics

Kamnani, Diya↗

Assessing the Impacts of Extreme Weather Events on Photovoltaic Installations Using Remote Sensing Imagery

In this study, we analyze poststorm satellite imagery to assess solar photovoltaic (PV) damage for over 11,300 systems following a catastrophic hailstorm in Austin, TX, in September 2023, which produced softball‐sized hail and for over 1500 systems across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands after Hurricanes Irma and Maria in September 2017. Findings show that approximately 5.5% of identified PV sites were damaged in the hailstorm and approximately 17% of PV installations were damaged after the hurricanes. A weak correlation between hurricane wind gust speed and percent site damage was determined, with installation practices playing a heavy role in site resilience. Additionally, we show that newer module vintages are more susceptible to hail damage than older modules, possibly due to a convergence of larger size modules, decreased frame dimensions, and decreased front glass thickness but more research is needed. For hail sizes of 60 mm or greater, consistent hail damage is sustained by PV installations, regardless of system configuration.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A central arctic extreme aerosol event triggered by a warm air-mass intrusion

Frequency and intensity of warm and moist air-mass intrusions into the Arctic have increased over the past decades and have been related to sea ice melt. During our year-long expedition in the remote central Arctic Ocean, a record-breaking increase in temperature, moisture and downwelling-longwave radiation was observed in mid-April 2020, during an air-mass intrusion carrying air pollutants from northern Eurasia. The two-day intrusion, caused drastic changes in the aerosol size distribution, chemical composition and particle hygroscopicity. Here we show how the intrusion transformed the Arctic from a remote low-particle environment to an area comparable to a central-European urban setting. Additionally, the intrusion resulted in an explosive increase in cloud condensation nuclei, which can have direct effects on Arctic clouds’ radiation, their precipitation patterns, and their lifetime. Thus, unless prompt actions to significantly reduce emissions in the source regions are taken, such intrusion events are expected to continue to affect the Arctic climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗