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At least 235 records · Page 13

Comparison of All Solid Cancer Mortality and Incidence Dose-Response in the Life Span Study of Atomic Bomb Survivors, 1958–2009

Recent analysis of all solid cancer incidence (1958–2009) in the Life Span Study (LSS) revealed evidence of upward curvature in the radiation dose response among males but not females. Upward curvature in sex-averaged excess relative risk (ERR) for all solid cancer mortality (1950–2003) was also observed in the 0–2 Gy dose range. As reasons for non-linearity in the LSS are not completely understood, we conducted dose response analyses for all solid cancer mortality and incidence applying similar methods (1958–2009 follow-up, DS02R1 doses, including subjects notin-city (NIC) at the time of the bombing) and statistical models. Incident cancers were ascertained from Hiroshima and Nagasaki cancer registries, while cause of death was ascertained from death certificates over entire Japan. The study included 105,444 LSS subjects who were alive and not known to have cancer before Jan 1, 1958 (80,205 with dose estimates and 25,239 NIC subjects). Between 1958 and 2009, there were 3.1 million person-years (PY) and 22,538 solid cancers for incidence analysis and 3.8 million PY and 15,419 solid cancer deaths for mortality analysis. We fitted sex-specific ERR models adjusted for smoking to both types of data. Over the entire range of doses, solid cancer mortality dose response exhibited a borderline significant upward curvature among males (P=0.062) and significant upward curvature among females (P=0.010); for solid cancer incidence, as before, we found a significant upward curvature among males (P=0.001) but not among females (P=0.624). The sex difference in magnitude of dose response curvature was statistically significant for cancer incidence (P=0.017) but not for cancer mortality (P=0.781). The results of analyses in the 0–2 Gy range and restricted lower dose ranges generally supported inferences made about the sex-specific dose response shape over the entire range of doses for each outcome. Patterns of sex-specific curvature by calendar period (1958–1987 vs 1988–2009) and age at exposure (0–19 vs 20–83) varied between mortality and incidence data, particularly among females, although for each outcome there was an indication of curvature among 0–19 year old male survivors in both calendar periods and among 0–19 year old female survivors in the recent period. Collectively, our findings indicate that the upward curvature in all solid cancer dose response in the LSS is neither specific to males nor to incidence data; it appears to depend on composition of case series and age at exposure or time. Further follow-up and site-specific analyses of cancer mortality and incidence will be important to confirm the emerging trend in dose response curvature among young survivors and unveil the contributing factors and sites.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Toluene Uptake and Outgassing by a 3D-Printed Silicone and the Impact on Mechanical Performance

Silicone elastomers have advantageous physical properties and are widely used in various applications. Additive manufacturing (AM) of silicones provides additional utility by enabling tunable mechanical and functional properties. However, the performance of these elastomers deteriorates over time with exposure to environmental stressors. Organic solvents and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are stressors that can cause dimensional changes to silicones with exposure and impact the overall function. Yet, the effects of such exposure on mechanical performance, including load response (LR), are not well understood. Here, in this study, we investigated the impact of a nonpolar solvent, toluene, on AM silicone material properties and compressive load. We observed that AM silicones rapidly absorbed toluene and swelled, leading to an increase in relative LR. Toluene concentration and compression did not affect uptake or swelling rates. In contrast, outgassing rates were slower for compressed coupons compared to uncompressed specimens, attributed to geometric constraints and polymer network changes impacting toluene diffusion outward. Compression also pinned the AM silicones at an enlarged state, significantly reducing relative LR after outgassing. Depending on toluene concentrations and compression, AM silicones can remain robust against toluene exposure and recover their initial printing geometry and mechanical performance after toluene outgassing and polymer relaxation.

Materials science↗

The effect of powder feedstock and heat treatment on the thermal and mechanical properties of binder jet printed ZrC

In this study, zirconium carbide (ZrC) disks were fabricated using binder jet printing to study the effect of powder feedstock, print parameters, and heat treatment on flowability and final materials properties. A median volumetric particle size smaller than 10 μm was shown to cause the powder to stop flowing during printing. Disks were printed using ZrC with suitable flowability and then heat-treated at temperatures between 1800°C and 2200°C for 1 or 5h. The density, part shrinkage, thermal diffusivity, and fracture strength all increased with increasing temperature and time. The heat-treated disks were then heated to 2200°C for 5h and the properties converged for disks of the same particle size, indicating the hottest temperature and longest time of exposure dictates the final properties. Lastly, it was shown that larger particles produce lower density materials with worse thermal diffusivity, most likely because of poor connectivity between particles after heat treatment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Validating corrosion models: A comparison of governing equations

Experimental validation of Finite Element Method (FEM) models varying electrochemical governing equations, inclusion of chemical reactions, and time on the resultant damage profile for two galvanic couples is explored. Two anode materials (Magnesium AZ31 and Carbon Steel) in contact with a cathode (Stainless Steel 304 L) were modeled in/exposed to NaCl (1 and 0.1 M respectively for the anode materials) for up to one week. The physics approach, inclusion of chemical reactions, and the boundary conditions required to accurately represent the damage profile in FEM models depended on the galvanic couple materials and, ultimately, the corrosion rate. For high rates of corrosion (i.e., magnesium anode), the Nernst-Planck equation with Electroneutrality was sufficient to describe the damage, while, for low rates of corrosion (i.e., carbon steel anode), the Laplace equation was sufficient. In all cases, the most complete governing equation (Nernst-Planck-Poisson Equation) was not necessary to accurately describe the damage. Precipitation reactions in solution also played a critical role in the predicted damage profile, especially for high corrosion rate systems. Finally, for short time periods (< 6 h), the choice of governing equations does not significantly influence damage profile results. Overall, the choice of physics to reduce error in simulations relies on the boundary conditions, geometry, conductivity of the solution, electrochemical potential differences, and time of exposure. The above results are discussed with regard to accuracy and computational savings.

Carbon steel↗

Doubling of U.S. Population Exposure to Climate Extremes by 2050

We quantify historical and projected trends in the population exposure to climate extremes as measured by the United States National Center for Environmental Information Climate Extremes Index (CEI). Based on the analyses of the historical observations, we find that the U.S. has already experienced a rise in the occurrence of aggregated extremes in recent decades, consistent with the climate response to historical increases in radiative forcing. Additionally, we find that exposure can be expected to intensify under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, with all counties permanently exceeding the baseline variability in the occurrence of extreme hot days, warm nights, and drought conditions by 2050. As a result, every county in the U.S. is projected to permanently exceed the historical CEI variability (as measured by one standard deviation during the 1981–2005 period). Based on the current population distribution, this unprecedented change implies a yearly exposure to extreme conditions for one in every three people. We find that the increasing trend in exposure to the aggregated extremes is already detectable over much of the U.S., and particularly in the central and eastern U.S. The high correspondence between the pattern of trends in our simulations and observations increases confidence in the projected amplification of population exposure to unprecedented combinations of extreme climate conditions, should greenhouse gas concentrations continue to escalate along their current trajectory.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Molecular bridge-mediated ultralow-power gas sensing

Abstract We report the electrical detection of captured gases through measurement of the quantum tunneling characteristics of gas-mediated molecular junctions formed across nanogaps. The gas-sensing nanogap device consists of a pair of vertically stacked gold electrodes separated by an insulating 6 nm spacer (~1.5 nm of sputtered α-Si and ~4.5 nm ALD SiO 2 ), which is notched ~10 nm into the stack between the gold electrodes. The exposed gold surface is functionalized with a self-assembled monolayer (SAM) of conjugated thiol linker molecules. When the device is exposed to a target gas (1,5-diaminopentane), the SAM layer electrostatically captures the target gas molecules, forming a molecular bridge across the nanogap. The gas capture lowers the barrier potential for electron tunneling across the notched edge region, from ~5 eV to ~0.9 eV and establishes additional conducting paths for charge transport between the gold electrodes, leading to a substantial decrease in junction resistance. We demonstrated an output resistance change of >10 8 times upon exposure to 80 ppm diamine target gas as well as ultralow standby power consumption of <15 pW, confirming electron tunneling through molecular bridges for ultralow-power gas sensing.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

A Cable Condition Monitoring Strategy for Safe and Reliable Plant Operation

Electrical cables provide essential functions, such as delivery of power or instrumentation signals for monitoring systems. Most cables installed in industrial applications are constructed with organic polymer insulations that can become brittle, crack, or degrade over time from exposure to harsh environmental conditions, such as elevated temperatures, moisture, vibration, mechanical shock, and radiation. This paper describes an overall strategy for assessing the health and managing the aging of cables during the operating life of an industrial facility. This strategy involves performing condition assessments and monitoring of electrical cables using both in situ and laboratory testing techniques. It includes in situ testing to identify anomalies in the circuits, such as degraded terminations, splices, connections, and degraded sections of cable insulation, as well as as-found evaluations to determine the current condition of installed cables. Furthermore, these cable condition evaluations provide important information about the current state of the cable circuits. Moreover, the test results can be used to trend/monitor age-related degradation and estimate the remaining useful life of installed cables.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Suppression of Helium Bubble Nucleation in Beryllium Exposed Tungsten Surfaces.

One of the most severe obstacles to increasing the longevity of tungsten-based plasma facing components, such as divertor tiles, is the surface deterioration driven by sub-surface helium bubble formation and rupture. Supported by experimental observations at PISCES, this work uses molecular dynamics simulations to identify the microscopic mechanisms underlying suppression of helium bubble formation by the introduction of plasma-borne beryllium. Simulations of the initial surface material (crystalline W), early-time Be exposure (amorphous W-Be) and final WBe 2 intermetallic surfaces were used to highlight the effect of Be. Significant differences in He retention, depth distribution and cluster size were observed in the cases with beryllium present. Helium resided much closer to the surface in the Be cases with nearly 80% of the total helium inventory located within the first 2 nm. Moreover, coarsening of the He depth profile due to bubble formation is suppressed due to a one-hundred fold decrease in He mobility in WBe2, relative to crystalline W. This is further evidenced by the drastic reduction in He cluster sizes even when it was observed that both the amorphous W-Be and WBe 2 intermetallic phases retain nearly twice as much He during cumulative implantation studies.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Correlation of Diffusion Limited Oxidation to Color Difference in Accelerated Aging of Electrical Cable Insulation

Diffusion limited oxidation (DLO) as a phenomenon has complicated material lifetime predictions from accelerated aging studies. Many methods to analyze DLO have been developed in recent years. However, an analytical tool for high throughput and low-cost analysis of DLO affected samples remains absent from the literature. Color differences in polymers exposed to oxidative conditions have recently been observed and correlated to increased concentrations of oxidation products. Herein, total color difference was utilized to rapidly quantify DLO in ethylene propylene rubber (EPR) polymeric cable insulation specimens. Insulation specimens were aged at 121 °C, 136 °C, 150 °C, and 165 °C and a 10% ?E*ab difference between the specimen edge and specimen center was used as the threshold for DLO. Based on these specifications DLO was observed in EPR insulation specimen at temperatures of 136 °C and above, with an increasing degree of DLO observed as the time of exposure increased. The method presented in this work represents a quantitative and high-throughput method for the investigation of DLO with a low cost barrier for entry.

diffusion limited oxidation, DLO, nuclear, electri↗

Validation and Verification of Python based Neutron Spectrum Unfolding Software

To validate and verify the python-based code (PySL), designed to replicate the programs used by STAYSL for Beam Correction Factor (BCF) and Self-Shielding Factor (SHIELD), a series of tests were performed. To test BCF a python script was written to generate a random flux history file and both versions of the code processed the data. The test verified matching values up to at least one decimal place, approximately 10,000 tests where run and each one passed. Isotopes began to fail the tests once neutron saturation was reached. To verify this the total time of exposure was varied the isotopes that failed were compared to a list of their half-lives. The test process for SHIELD was very similar but, in this case, the code began by producing an input file with varying thickness and device type/environment for the SHIELD input. The failure condition for this test was if any of the data points for an isotope had a difference above 3%. Approximately 40 of these tests were run and there were only 3 isotopes that had reoccurring failures but only 2% of their points were above the 3% difference. A visual comparison was conducted by plotting the results from both programs. Although the test failed, the differences between their values were minuscule, and the self-shielding factor’s shape was preserved when plotted. Next steps for this project will be validating and verifying the python-based SigPhi code and then reproducing and testing the least squares unfolding performed by STAYSL.

73 - NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Non-nuclear Component Signatures for Warhead Dismantlement Confirmation

The verification of warhead dismantlement is expected to be an important component in future arms reduction treaties. Historic approaches developed with future arms control treaty verification in mind often involve intrusive measurements, process monitoring, and/or inspector presence to provide confidence that an authentic warhead has been dismantled. This work explores the possibility of reducing the negative impacts of these invasive approaches while also delivering a method that is more likely to provide non-sensitive data that can be shared with not only other nuclear weapons states but also non-nuclear weapons states partners. This work explores a novel approach for verifying dispositioned non-nuclear weapon components, providing confidence post-dismantlement that a treaty accountable item that was dismantled was in fact a treaty-relevant nuclear weapon system as declared. This method provides an alternative to intrusive inspection processes in nuclear weapons production environments, which would require significant changes to the host’s operational behaviors. It achieves this by identifying intrinsic neutron-induced signatures of non-nuclear components to determine their authenticity and estimate the duration they were exposed within a nuclear weapons system using technologies that are already in use for other national security applications. Intrinsic radiation effects studies are already a part of the stockpile aging and surveillance evaluations. However, none of these technologies and approaches have been previously considered for verification applications of non-nuclear component disposition. In this report, we introduce modeling studies that have been used to identify the most promising candidate parts and materials with signatures that are measurable and actionable. These models have been validated with laboratory measurements of signatures induced by the exposure of candidate materials to neutrons over a range of times. Predictive modeling then demonstrates the methodology for estimating exposure times and/or limits. Laboratory measurements of authentic non-nuclear parts from a dismantled warhead demonstrate the feasibility of employing these signature measurements. And finally, a concept of operations (CONOPS) for the potential use of this methodology is presented.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Temporal Trends of Racial and Socioeconomic Disparities in Population Exposures to Upstream Oil and Gas Development in California

People living near oil and gas development are exposed to multiple environmental stressors that pose health risks. Some studies suggest these risks are higher for racially and socioeconomically marginalized people, which may be partly attributable to disparities in exposures. We examined whether racially and socioeconomically marginalized people in California are disproportionately exposed to oil and gas wells and associated hazards. We longitudinally assessed exposure to wells during three time periods (2005–2009, 2010–2014, and 2015–2019) using sociodemographic data at the census block group‐level. For each block group and time period, we assessed exposure to new, active, retired, and plugged wells, and cumulative production volume. We calculated risk ratios to determine whether marginalized people disproportionately resided near wells (within 1 km). Averaged across the three time periods, we estimated that 1.1 million Californians (3.0%) lived within 1 km of active wells. Nearly 9 million Californians (22.9%) lived within 1 km of plugged wells. The proportion of Black residents near active wells was 42%–49% higher than the proportion of Black residents across California, and the proportion of Hispanic residents near active wells was 4%–13% higher than their statewide proportion. Disparities were greatest in areas with the highest oil and gas production, where the proportion of Black residents was 105%–139% higher than statewide. Socioeconomically marginalized residents also had disproportionately high exposure to wells. Though oil and gas production has declined in California, marginalized communities persistently had disproportionately high exposure to wells, potentially contributing to health disparities.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Global projections of heat exposure of older adults

The global population is aging at the same time as heat exposures are increasing due to climate change. Age structure, and its biological and socio-economic drivers, determine populations’ vulnerability to high temperatures. Here we combine age-stratified demographic projections with downscaled temperature projections to mid-century and find that chronic exposure to heat doubles across all warming scenarios. Moreover, >23% of the global population aged 69+ will inhabit climates whose 95th percentile of daily maximum temperature exceeds the critical threshold of 37.5 °C, compared with 14% today, exposing an additional 177–246 million older adults to dangerous acute heat. Effects are most severe in Asia and Africa, which also have the lowest adaptive capacity. Our results facilitate regional heat risk assessments and inform public health decision-making.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Deciphering the influence of high-flux helium plasma exposure on tungsten nanostructure growth using real-time, in situ spectroscopic ellipsometry

In situ analysis of surfaces during high-flux plasma exposure represents a long-standing challenge in the study of plasma–material interactions. While post-mortem microscopy can provide a detailed picture of structural and compositional changes, in situ techniques can capture the dynamic evolution of the surface. In this study, we demonstrate how spectroscopic ellipsometry can be applied to the real-time characterization of W nanostructure (also known as “fuzz”) growth during exposure to low temperature, high-flux He plasmas. Strikingly, over a wide range of sample temperatures and helium fluences, the measured ellipsometric parameters (Ψ,Δ) collapse onto a single curve that can be directly correlated with surface morphologies characterized by ex situ helium ion microscopy. The initial variation in the (Ψ,Δ) parameters appears to be governed by small changes in surface roughness (<50 nm) produced by helium bubble nucleation and growth, followed by the emergence of 50 nm diameter W tendrils. This basic behavior appears to be reproducible over a wide parameter space, indicating that the spectroscopic ellipsometry may be of general practical use as a diagnostic to study surface morphologies produced by high-flux He implantation in refractory metals. An advantage of the methods outlined here is that they are applicable at low incident ion energies, even below the sputtering threshold. As an example of this application, we apply in situ ellipsometry to examine how W fuzz growth is affected both by varying ion energy and the temperature of the surface.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Hourly PM 2.5 Estimates across California from 2018 to 2023

This study presents a new data set of hourly PM 2.5 concentrations across California from 2018 to 2023 at a three-kilometer resolution. This data set was developed by assimilating observations from PurpleAir and the U.S. EPA Air Quality System monitors into wildfire smoke forecasts from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Smoke (HRRR-Smoke) model using the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) three-dimensional variational data assimilation framework. Archived forecasts of modeled wildfire smoke PM 2.5 from HRRR-Smoke create the background field for assimilation, which is then corrected using surface observations of total PM 2.5 . The resulting reanalysis from GSI provides an estimate of total PM 2.5 that minimizes error from both the observational and the model data. Validation results indicate strong performance, with monthly R 2 values ranging from 0.73 to 0.91 across the six-year data set, comparable to other PM 2.5 data sets. Case studies are presented for three major fire events, the 2018 Camp Fire, 2019 Kincade Fire, and 2020 Lightning Complex Fires to demonstrate the data set’s fidelity in resolving plume dynamics and local exposure patterns. Root-mean-squared error averaged over each month scales with average PM 2.5 concentrations, resulting in a low error under typical conditions but higher absolute errors during extreme smoke events. This is the first long-term, hourly PM 2.5 data set of its kind for California and enables the generation of subdaily exposure metrics, such as peak hourly concentrations, exceedance durations, and time-of-day exposure peaks. The novelty and strong validation of this data set make it a compelling resource for future studies on the impact and significance of subdaily PM 2.5 exposure.

PM2.5↗

Effect of frequency and applied voltage of an atmospheric-pressure dielectric-barrier discharge on breakdown and hydroxyl-radical generation with a liquid electrode

This work examines the effect of the frequency and peak applied voltage on hydroxyl-radical generation in a dielectric-barrier plasma discharge between a metallic needle electrode and one electrode covered with dielectric. The authors examine a system that can expose up to 96 liquid samples in an automated fashion without human intervention beyond setting the initial software configuration. Then, hydroxylradical concentration, measured through coumarin fluorescence, was measured for 5 s plasma exposures generated under different highvoltage conditions with frequencies from 2 to 16 kHz and amplitudes from 4 to 9 kV. Their results show that an increase in frequency and/or applied voltage, within the range prescribed above and the limits of the high-voltage power supply, can yield up to a 150% increase in fluorescence with an equivalent hydroxyl-radical increase. Applications using typical previous methods, such as the Fenton Reaction, are limited in that they continuously generate hydroxyl radicals over millisecond and longer intervals. These results establish the electrical parameters that can now be applied to polymers, like proteins, which show three dimensional structures that are flexible and fluctuate on a microsecond and nanosecond time scale, with hydroxyl-radical generation on this time scale using this device. Additionally, plasma exposures may be optimized for a great variety of proteins, devices and techniques, where hydroxyl-radical generation is of utmost importance, reducing exposure time and potential subjection of samples to harmful side effects.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Thermal Aging Effects on the Yield and Tensile Strength of 9Cr-1Mo-V (Grade 91)

The long-term exposure of 9Cr-1Mo-V (Grade 91) steel to elevated temperature can have a significant effect on reducing its yield and tensile strength. The yield and tensile strength changes, in turn, have potential implications to the assurance of the integrity of components constructed with this material over their design or intended lifetime. The ASME Boiler & Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC), Section III, Division 5 (III-5, high temperature reactors) provides tabulated reduction factors for Grade 91 yield and tensile strength as a function of exposure temperature and time up to 300,000 h. ASME BPVC III-5 s intent to extend these factors to an exposure duration of 500,000 h, the lack of available historic information to support the existing factors, and the recent development of a physics-based prediction model for ASME BPVC application are prime motivation for this study. This work describes results of the conventional time-temperature Hollomon–Jaffe parameter, strength reduction ratio prediction method using an updated, extensive Grade 91 unaged and related aged material strength database. The method, previously used by Oak Ridge National Laboratory in its evaluation of Grade 91 and likely used in development of the existing BPVC III-5 reduction factors, provides strength reduction ratio predictions useful for general component fitness-for-service assessments and for computing BPVC III-5 reduction factors as defined. Specific reduction factors to 500,000 h at 650 °C applicable to ASME BPVC III-5 are computed from the strength reduction ratios.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Flux Sensor Measurement and Calibration Requirements for High-Intensity Heat Flux Applications: A Trade Study

Stakeholders of CSP and non-CSP high-intensity broadband flux measurements were surveyed and interviewed to obtain flux sensor design and calibration requirements. Existing sensor technologies and existing calibration facilities were then compared against this standard. Stakeholders require a flux sensor designed for >5,000 kW/m2 flux measurements, >1,000 life cycles, <500 ms response time, >60-minute exposure at maximum flux, and <5% measurement uncertainty. Stakeholders also require a sensor with minimal cost, short procurement lead time, and a high-intensity broadband flux calibration. Commercial CSP stakeholders primarily rely on infrared (IR) temperature measurements of receiver equipment to control CSP plant process operation, whereas CSP research and development (R&D) and non-CSP stakeholders rely on accurate flux gauge measurements for a variety of applications. It was determined that existing flux sensor technologies and calibration facilities do not comprehensively meet stakeholder needs. This study suggests a more robust circular foil gauge with a high-intensity solar flux calibration comprehensively meets stakeholder flux measurement needs. Improved circular foil gauge designs and an improved flux sensor calibration facility are discussed.

McLaughlin, Luke (ORCID:0000000303711310)↗