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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2017

A Hierarchical Relationship Between the Fluence Spectra and CME Kinematics in Large Solar Energetic Particle Events: A Radio Perspective

We report on further evidence that solar energetic particles are organized by the kinematic properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). In particular, we focus on the starting frequency of type II bursts, which is related to the distance from the Sun where the radio emission starts. We find that the three groups of solar energetic particle (SEP) events known to have distinct values of CME initial acceleration, also have distinct average starting frequencies of the associated type II bursts. SEP events with ground level enhancement (GLE) have the highest starting frequency (107 MHz), while those associated with filament eruption (FE) in quiescent regions have the lowest starting frequency (22 MHz); regular SEP events have intermediate starting frequency (81 MHz). Taking the onset time of type II bursts as the time of shock formation, we determine the shock formation heights measured from the Sun center. We find that the shocks form on average closest to the Sun (1.51 Rs) in GLE events, farthest from the Sun in FE SEP events (5.38 Rs), and at intermediate distances in regular SEP events (1.72 Rs). Finally, we present the results of a case study of a CME with high initial acceleration (approx.3 km s-2) and a type II radio burst with high starting frequency (approx. 200 MHz) but associated with a minor SEP event. We find that the relation between the fluence spectral index and CME initial acceleration continues to hold even for this minor SEP event.

Gopalswamy, N.↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Hierarchical Relationship Between the Fluence Spectra and CME Kinematics in Large Solar Energetic Particle Events: A Radio Perspective

We report on further evidence that solar energetic particles are organized by the kinematic properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). In particular, we focus on the starting frequency of type II bursts, which is related to the distance from the Sun where the radio emission starts. We find that the three groups of solar energetic particle (SEP) events known to have distinct values of CME initial acceleration, also have distinct average starting frequencies of the associated type II bursts. SEP events with ground level enhancement (GLE) have the highest starting frequency (107 MHz), while those associated with filament eruption (FE) in quiescent regions have the lowest starting frequency (22 MHz); regular SEP events have intermediate starting frequency (81 MHz). Taking the onset time of type II bursts as the time of shock formation, we determine the shock formation heights measured from the Sun center. We find that the shocks form on average closest to the Sun (1.51 Rs) in GLE events, farthest from the Sun in FE SEP events (5.38 Rs), and at intermediate distances in regular SEP events (1.72 Rs). Finally, we present the results of a case study of a CME with high initial acceleration (approx. 3 km s-2) and a type II radio burst with high starting frequency (~200 MHz) but associated with a minor SEP event. We find that the relation between the fluence spectral index and CME initial acceleration continues to hold even for this minor SEP event.

Gopalswamy, N.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Deep Learning Method for Detecting Precursors to Adverse Events

With the recent advancements in Deep Learning methods, the ability to model large complex heterogeneous data sets are fundamentally changing industry and research. Coupled with hardware improvements, and ease of implementation, a wide variety of deep neural network architectures can quickly be developed to solve a sweeping range of problems such as: object detection in images, automatic healthcare diagnosis using heterogenous data sources, real time language translating and sentence prediction, upscaling low resolution images, and forecasting of multivariate timeseries. Generally, many of these architectures outperform classical machine learning approaches in their respective tasks, however, this typically comes at a cost of interpretability. These black box algorithms generally suffer from lack of transparency in both model complexity as well as the rationale behind the prediction. This lack of comprehension, is driving an emerging area of interest in “Explainable AI”. An algorithm called: “Deep Temporal Multiple Instance Learning”1 was a recently developed to identify precursors to adverse events and has been applied in the aviation domain. The deep learning architecture is designed to capture the evolution of the probability of the outcome over the time preceding the adverse event using a multiple instance learning approach as illustrated in Figure 1. Precursors are defined when the probability of the event has exceeded a threshold at some point in the timeseries, at which point, a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine contributing factors. The contributing factors are used to explain and define the precursor during the periods where the probability score is high. The identified contributing factors are then presented to subject matter experts to provide objective insights into the leading factors associated with the particular adverse event. The algorithm has been tested on flight data from a commercial airline and has the ability to discover precursors to known adverse events that take the form of safety critical operations, such as unstable approach events on final approach. Apart from detecting precursors to adverse events, the converse can also be leveraged to discover corrective actions. These positive actions manifest themselves as periods in the timeseries when the precursor score has been lowered from an elevated state; meaning that if the system had been left uncorrected, it would have eventually reached the adverse event state. Characterizing these state changes can help identify successful interventions that may not have been known before. Policy makers and procedure designers can use this additional knowledge to craft more safety and efficient resilient procedures for future operations and therefore improve the overall performance of the National Airspace.

Matthews, Bryan L.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Large-Scale Influences on Atmospheric River Induced Extreme Precipitation Events Along the Coast of Washington State

Transient, narrow plumes of strong water vapor transport, referred to as AtmosphericRivers (ARs), are responsible for much of the precipitation along the west coast of the UnitedStates. The most intense precipitation events are almost always induced by an AR on the coast ofOregon and Washington and can result in detrimental impacts on society due to mudslides andflooding. In order to accurately predict AR events on numerical weather prediction, subseasonal,and seasonal timescales, it is important to understand the large-scale impacts on extreme ARevents. Here, characteristics of ARs that result in an extreme precipitation event are compared totypical ARs on the coast of Washington State. In addition to more intense water vapor transport,notable differences in the synoptic forcing are present during extreme precipitation events thatare not present during typical AR events. Subseasonal and seasonal teleconnection patterns areknown to influence the weather in the Pacific Northwest and are investigated here. The MaddenJulian Oscillation (MJO) plays a role in determining the strength of precipitation associated withan AR on the Washington Coast. Phase 5 of the MJO (convection centered over the maritimecontinent) is the most common phase during an extreme precipitation event, while phase 2(convection over the Indian Ocean) discourages an extreme event from occurring. Interactionsbetween El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the propagation speed of the MJO result inextreme events during phase 1 of the MJO and El Niño but phase 8 during neutral ESNOconditions.

Allison B Marquardt Collow↗
NASA NTRS2020

Event Selection and Background Rejection in Time Projection Chambers Using Convolutional Neural Networks and a Specific Application to the AdEPT Gamma-ray Polarimeter Mission

The Advanced Energetic Pair Telescope gamma-ray polarimeter uses a time projection chamber for measuring pair production events and is expected to generate a raw instrument data rate four orders of magnitude greater than is transmittable with typical satellite data communications. GammaNet, a convolutional neural network, proposes to solve this problem by performing event classification on-board for pair production and background events, reducing the data rate to a level that can be accommodated by typical satellite communication systems. In order to train GammaNet, a set of 1.1 × 10(exp 6) pair production events and 10(exp 6) background events were simulated for the Advanced Energetic Pair Telescope using the Geant4 Monte Carlo code. An additional set of 10(exp 6) pair production and 10 background events were simulated to test GammaNet’s capability for background discrimination. With optimization, GammaNet has achieved the proposed background rejection requirements for Galactic Cosmic Ray proton events. Given the best case assumption for downlink speeds, signal sensitivity for pair production ranged between 1.1 ± 0.5% to 69 ± 2% for 5 and 250 MeV incident gamma rays. This range became 0.1 ± 0.1% to 17 ± 2% for the worst case scenario of downlink speeds. The application of a feature visualization algorithm to GammaNet demonstrated decreased response to electronic noise and events exiting or entering the frame and increased response to parallel tracks that are close in proximity. GammaNet has been successfully implemented and shows promising results.

Richard L. Garnett↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predicting Adverse Events and their Precursors in Aviation Using Multi-Class Multiple-Instance Learning

In recent years, there has been a rapid growth in the application of machine learning techniques that leverage aviation data collected from commercial airline operations to improve safety. Anomaly detection and predictive maintenance have been the main targets for machine learning applications. However, this paper focuses on the identification of precursors, which is a relatively newer application. Precursors are events correlated with adverse events that happen prior to the adverse event itself. Therefore, precursor mining provides many benefits including understanding the reasons behind a safety incident and the ability to identify signatures, which can be tracked throughout a flight to alert the operators of an potential upcoming adverse event. This work proposes using the multiple-instance learning (MIL) framework, a weakly supervised learning task, combined with a carefully designed Multi-Head Convolutional Neural Networks-Recurrent Neural Networks (MHCNN-RNN) architecture to predict different type of adverse events for any given flights and identify their precursors with little to no post-processing.Results obtained show that the MHCNN-RNN is able to accurately forecast high speed and high path angle events during the approach, and that it is also capable of determining the aircraft’s parameters that are correlated to these events. These parameters can be considered precursors to the events.

multiple instance learning↗
NASA NTRS2016

Analysis and Simulations of Space Radiation Induced Single Event Effects and Transients

Spacecraft electronic are affected by the space radiation environment. Among the different types of radiation effects that can affect spacecraft electronics is the single event transient (SET). The space environment is responsible for many of the single event transients which can upset the performance of the spacecraft avionics hardware. In this chapter we first explore the origins of single event transients, then explore the modeling of a single event transient in digital and analog circuit. The chapter also addresses the concept of crosstalk that could develop among digital circuits in the present of a SET event. The chapter also provides a discussion of SET hardening. We then provide a discussion concerning propagation of a single event transient event at the local, subsystem, and system level in a spacecraft using two different models, one of the models developed by the author, known as the state transition model. The final goal of the chapter is to provide a qualitatively methodology for assessing single event transients and its effects so that spacecraft avionics engineers can develop either hardware or software countermeasures in their designs. SET is not a form of electromagnetic interference (EMI) in its origin, but semantically SET is very similar to EMI because they are both caused a current source not previously accounted for. SET has the same effects as EMI and it can cause interference problems in electronic circuits via multiple coupling mechanisms similar to EMI, and therefore makes such circuits incompatible.

Perez, Reinaldo J.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Discrete Event Simulation-Based Timeline Validation Using R2U2

The Gateway Vehicle Systems Manager (VSM), the top-level software control system in a distributed, hierarchical Autonomous System Management Architecture is, like most modern spacecraft software control systems, heavily data-driven. For example, schedules (timelines) will be developed on the ground and, due to the high degree of autonomy, contain complex procedures involving conditional branching, variable timing, and resource contention resolution. In order to verify that an uploaded timeline will function correctly, it is necessary to explore the feasible set of possible executions. While it is possible to test a timeline using a mission simulation, the complexity of the system and duration of a timeline limits the number of trials and therefore the test coverage. To address this problem, the VSM team is using a discrete event system model that can rapidly generate from a timeline sets of event sequences using Monte Carlo techniques. To achieve rapid and trustworthy checking of the event sequences, we use an offline version of the runtime model checking tool R2U2. This presentation describes the approach the VSM team is using to implement the discrete event simulation and evaluate event sequences using R2U2. The presentation will discuss: 1. Description of the timelines by VSM in the context of VSM operations 2. Expansion of a timeline into a sequence of atomic events 3. Adjustment, in the Monte Carlo environment, of an event sequence to account for uncertainty, external events, and failures 4. Definition of R2U2 input and mission-time linear temporal logic files 5. Generation and use of R2U2 verdict sequences 6. Lessons learned and future work

Verification↗
DOE OSTI2021

Classification and computation of extreme events in turbulent combustion

In the design of practical combustion systems, ensuring safety and reliability is an important requirement. For instance, reliably avoiding lean blowout, flame flashback or inlet unstart is critical for ensuring safe operation. Currently, the science of predicting such events is based on prior experience, limited modeling or diagnostic tools and purely statistical approaches. Even though computational and experimental tools for studying combustion devices have vastly advanced in the last three decades, the analysis of such failure events has not been pursued widely. While the use of data for model development and calibration is being widely accepted, the extension to failure events introduces numerous challenges. In particular, the focus here is on so-called data-poor problems, where the cost of generating data is extremely high and is not easily amenable to existing computational and experimental approaches. Data-poor problems are particularly relevant when related to extreme events (also called anomalous events) that can lead to catastrophic failure of the system. It is argued that transient events that describe such failure can have different causal mechanisms. To develop the scientific inference process, a classification of such problems is used to determine specific modeling paths as well as computational tools needed. Research opportunities in the emerging field of extreme event prediction are highlighted in order to identify critical and immediate needs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stochastic pre-event preparation for enhancing resilience of distribution systems

Extreme weather events are the common causes for power supply interruptions and power outages in electrical distribution systems. Improving the distribution system and enhancing its resilience is becoming crucial due to the increased frequency of extreme weather events. Preparation and allocation of multiple flexible resources, such as mobile resources, fuel resources, and labor resources before extreme weather events can mitigate the effects of extreme weather events and enhance the resilience of power distribution systems. Here, in this paper, a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer linear programming (SMILP) is proposed to optimize the preparation and resource allocation process for upcoming extreme weather events, which leads to faster and more efficient post-event restoration. The objective of the proposed two-stage SMILP is to maximize the served load and minimize the operating cost of flexible resources. The first stage in the optimization problem selects the amounts and locations of different resources. The second stage considers the operational constraints of the distribution system and repair crew scheduling constraints. The proposed stochastic pre-event preparation model is solved by a scenario decomposition method, Progressive Hedging (PH), to ease the computational complexity introduced by a large number of scenarios. Furthermore, to show the impact of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation on system resilience, three types of PV systems are considered during a power outage and the resilience improvements with different PV penetration levels are compared. Numerical results from simulations on a large-scale (more than 10,000 nodes) distribution feeder have been used to validate the effectiveness and scalability of the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Object detection with deep learning for rare event search in the GADGET II TPC

In the pursuit of identifying rare two-particle events within the GADGET II Time Projection Chamber (TPC), this paper presents a comprehensive approach for leveraging Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and various data processing methods. To address the inherent complexities of 3D TPC track reconstructions, the data is expressed in 2D projections and 1D quantities. This approach capitalizes on the diverse data modalities of the TPC, allowing for the efficient representation of the distinct features of the 3D events, with no loss in topology uniqueness. Additionally, it leverages the computational efficiency of 2D CNNs and benefits from the extensive availability of pre-trained models. Given the scarcity of real training data for the rare events of interest, simulated events are used to train the models to detect real events. To account for potential distribution shifts when predominantly depending on simulations, significant perturbations are embedded within the simulations. This produces a broad parameter space that works to account for potential physics parameter and detector response variations and uncertainties. These parameter-varied simulations are used to train sensitive 2D CNN object detectors. When combined with 1D histogram peak detection algorithms, this multi-modal detection framework is highly adept at identifying rare, two-particle events in data taken during experiment 21072 at the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB), demonstrating a 100% recall for events of interest. Here, we present the methods and outcomes of our investigation and discuss the potential future applications of these techniques.

Convolutional neural network↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Markov framework for generalized post-event systems recovery modeling: From single to multihazards

State-dependent models can be used to represent the system recovery process as a series of stochastic transitions from lower to higher functional states. However, the applications of these models have been limited in scope and there is a lack of a generalized recovery modeling framework. A generalized framework would permit a robust forecasting of systems and system-of-systems recovery under multiple hazards, and more broadly, would contribute to community disaster preparedness. This paper develops a generalized post hazard-event recovery modeling framework based on state-dependent Markov-type processes. We then apply the proposed framework to solve a spectrum of problems that range from hind-casting single-system recovery following a single hazard event to forecasting post-event trajectories under multiple hazards and modeling the recovery of a system-of-systems. First, Markov chains are used to hind-cast the observed recovery for a portfolio of buildings affected by the 2014 South Napa, California, earthquake. Next, Markov processes are used to formulate a parametric post hazard-event recovery model, which can be updated using Bayesian statistics when relevant datasets become available. Semi-Markov processes are then used to develop a more general model of single hazard recovery, which accounts for the intensity of the loading and level of damage caused by the event. Semi-Markov processes with non-renewal features are then used to account for multihazard interactions in a post-event recovery model, and applied to a case study that involves a community in Charleston, South Carolina. Lastly, Markov-type processes are combined with Bayesian networks to model the recovery of residential, commercial, educational, and industrial buildings (system-of-systems) following a hazard event. Overall, these applications demonstrate the versatility of the Markov framework towards handling recovery problems with varying levels of complexity.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Revealing the Statistics of Extreme Events Hidden in Short Weather Forecast Data

Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on society. While high-resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events on synoptic timescales, long-term climatological risk assessment is an altogether different problem. A once-in-a-century event takes, on average, 100 years of simulation time to appear just once, far beyond the typical integration length of a weather forecast model. Therefore, this task is left to cheaper, but less accurate, low-resolution or statistical models. But there is untapped potential in weather model output: despite being short in duration, weather forecast ensembles are produced multiple times a week. Integrations are launched with independent perturbations, causing them to spread apart over time and broadly sample phase space. Collectively, these integrations add up to thousands of years of data. We establish methods to extract climatological information from these short weather simulations. Using ensemble hindcasts by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting archived in the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) database, we characterize sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events with multi-centennial return times. Consistent results are found between alternative methods, including basic counting strategies and Markov state modeling. By carefully combining trajectories together, we obtain estimates of SSW frequencies and their seasonal distributions that are consistent with reanalysis-derived estimates for moderately rare events, but with much tighter uncertainty bounds, and which can be extended to events of unprecedented severity that have not yet been observed historically. These methods hold potential for assessing extreme events throughout the climate system, beyond this example of stratospheric extremes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Online Power System Event Detection via Bidirectional Generative Adversarial Networks

Accurate and speedy detection of power system events is critical to enhancing the reliability and resiliency of power systems. Although supervised deep learning algorithms show great promise in identifying power system events, they require a large volume of high-quality event labels for training. This paper develops a bidirectional anomaly generative adversarial network (GAN)-based algorithm to detect power system events using streaming PMU data, which does not rely on a huge amount of event labels. By introducing conditional entropy constraint in the objective function of GAN and graph signal processing-based PMU sorting technique, our proposed algorithm significantly outperforms state-of-the-art event detection algorithms in terms of accuracy. To facilitate the adoption of the proposed algorithm, a prototype online platform is also developed using Apache Hadoop, Kafka, and Spark to enable real-time event detection. Here, the accuracy and computational efficiency of the proposed algorithm are validated using a large-scale real-world PMU dataset from the Eastern Interconnection of the United States.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sampling Rare Events in Aqueous Systems Using Molecular Simulations

Birth of a new distinct phase is a phenomenon encountered in a myriad of processes, and has wide ranging consequences in material processing, biological self-assembly, separations and several other processes. Several phase transitions are nucleation driven. The nucleation events occur over nanosecond timescales and involve hundreds to thousands of molecules. These length and timescales are difficult to access in experiments, thereby making experimental studies of nucleation challenging. On the other hand, molecular simulations sample the nanosecond and nanometer scales making them ideal to study nucleation. However, nucleation is a rare event, meaning that the waiting time to observe one nucleation event is significant. This makes simulation studies of rare events challenging. The project focused on a multi-pronged approach to address such challenges to develop the next generation rare event sampling methods for molecular simulations. The key outcomes of our work include developing more effective methods for sampling rare events, utilizing machine learning to better elucidate nucleation mechanisms, development of software for easy implementation of the methodologies, and applications of the methods to realistic systems to push the method applicability beyond model systems. Overall, this work has enabled pushing the frontiers of molecular simulations to study rare events with a focus on nucleation in aqueous solutions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Concurrent Changes in Extreme Hydroclimate Events in the Colorado River Basin

Extreme events resulting in catastrophic damage have more than doubled in the last five years, costing hundreds of lives and thousands of homes, and heavily undermining regional economic stability. At present, most of these hydroclimatic extreme events are documented by the media as individual events; however, in scientific terms, many are better understood as concurrent events—concurrent extremes of both temperature and precipitation (e.g., drought, floods). This paper considers concurrent changes in hydroclimate extremes, including heatwaves, drought, flooding, and low flows, in six historical-to-future (1970–1999, 2070–2099) Earth System Model (ESM) climate scenarios for the Colorado River basin. Results indicate that temperature-driven Impacts (heatwaves, drought) have the strongest responses while precipitation-driven Impacts have weaker responses. All Impacts exhibit an increase in magnitude from synoptic to annual time scales, with heatwaves increasing in strength about three times at the annual time scale versus the synoptic, while low flows only increase slightly. Critical watersheds in the Colorado were identified, highlighting the Blue River basin, Uncompahgre, East Taylor, Salt/Verde watersheds, locations of important water infrastructures, water resources, and hydrological research. Our results indicate that concurrent extreme hydroclimate events are projected to increase in the future and intensify within critical regions of the Colorado River basin. Considering extreme hydroclimate events concurrently is an important step towards linking economic and social effects of these events and their associated instabilities on a regional scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2014

Compendium of Single Event Effects, Total Ionizing Dose, and Displacement Damage for Candidate Spacecraft Electronics for NASA

We present results and analysis investigating the effects of radiation on a variety of candidate spacecraft electronics to proton and heavy ion induced single event effects (SEE), proton-induced displacement damage (DD), and total ionizing dose (TID). Introduction: This paper is a summary of test results.NASA spacecraft are subjected to a harsh space environment that includes exposure to various types of ionizing radiation. The performance of electronic devices in a space radiation environment is often limited by its susceptibility to single event effects (SEE), total ionizing dose (TID), and displacement damage (DD). Ground-based testing is used to evaluate candidate spacecraft electronics to determine risk to spaceflight applications. Interpreting the results of radiation testing of complex devices is quite difficult. Given the rapidly changing nature of technology, radiation test data are most often application-specific and adequate understanding of the test conditions is critical. Studies discussed herein were undertaken to establish the application-specific sensitivities of candidate spacecraft and emerging electronic devices to single-event upset (SEU), single-event latchup (SEL), single-event gate rupture (SEGR), single-event burnout (SEB), single-event transient (SET), TID, enhanced low dose rate sensitivity (ELDRS), and DD effects.

Single Event Effects↗
NASA NTRS2016

Let Our Powers Combine! Harnessing NASA's Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET) in Worldview

Constellations of NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) satellites orbit the earth to collect images and data about the planet in near real-time. Within hours of satellite overpass, you can discover where the latest wildfires, severe storms, volcanic eruptions, and dust and haze events are occurring using NASA's Worldview web application. By harnessing a repository of curated natural event metadata from NASA Earth Observatory's Natural Event Tracker (EONET), Worldview has moved natural event discovery to the forefront and allows users to select events-of-interest from a curated list, zooms to the area, and adds the most relevant imagery layers for that type of natural event. This poster will highlight NASA Worldviews new natural event feed functionality.

earth science↗