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DOE OSTI2022

High-Precision Characterization of Seismicity from the 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcanic Eruption

The earthquake swarm accompanying the January 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcanic eruption includes a large number of posteruptive moderate-magnitude seismic events and presents a unique opportunity to use remote monitoring methods to characterize and compare seismic activity with other historical caldera-forming eruptions. We compute improved epicentroid locations, magnitudes, and regional moment tensors of seismic events from this earthquake swarm using regional to teleseismic surface-wave cross correlation and waveform modeling. Precise relative locations of 91 seismic events derived from 59,047 intermediate-period Rayleigh- and Love-wave cross-correlation measurements collapse into a small area surrounding the volcano and exhibit a southeastern time-dependent migration. Regional moment tensors and observed waveforms indicate that these events have a similar mechanism and exhibit a strong positive compensated linear vector dipole component. Precise relative magnitudes agree with regional moment tensor moment magnitude ($M_w$) estimates while also showing that event sizes and frequency increase during the days after the eruption followed by a period of several weeks of less frequent seismicity of a similar size. The combined information from visual observation and early geologic models indicate that the observed seismicity may be the result of a complex series of events that occurred after the explosive eruption on 15 January, possibly involving rapid resupply of the magma chamber shortly after the eruption and additional faulting and instability in the following weeks. In addition, we identify and characterize an $M_w$ 4.5 event five days before the paroxysmal explosion on 15 January, indicating that additional seismic events preceding the main eruption could have been identified with improved local monitoring. As a result, our analysis of the HTHH eruption sequence demonstrates the value of potentially utilizing teleseismic surface-wave cross correlation and waveform modeling methods to assist in the detailed analysis of remote volcanic eruption sequences.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Argon-isotopic Age Dating Analyses for Eastern Snake River Plain Volcanic Rock Samples

Argon-isotopic age dating analyses were conducted on 25 volcanic rock samples obtained from 22 boreholes and collected at three surface locations in the Eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP). The analyses were conducted to reduce uncertainties for characterizing volcanic hazards at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) as part of the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3 Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment (PVHA). Results of the argon-isotopic age dating analyses will be used to estimate the recurrence of basaltic and silicic volcanism and for assessing the spatial and temporal distributions of volcanic events in the ESRP.

58 - GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Multisensor Investigation of Convection During HyMeX SOP1 IOP13

A multisensor analysis of the convective precipitation event occurred over Rome during the IOP13 (October 15th, 2012) of the HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean eXperiment) Special Observation Period (SOP) 1 is presented. Thanks to the cooperation among Italian meteorological services and scientific community and a specific agreement with NASA-GSFC, different types of devices for meteorological measurements were made available during the HyMeX SOP.1. For investigating this event, used are the 3-D lightning data provided by the LINET, the CNR ISAC dual-pol C-band radar (Polar 55C), located in Rome, the Drop Size Distributions (DSD) collected by the 2D Video Disdrometer (2DVD) and the collocated Micro Rain Radar (MRR) installed at the Radio Meteorology Lab. of "Sapienza" University of Rome, located 14 km from the Polar 55C radar. The relation between microphysical structure and electrical activity during the convective phase of the event was investigated using LINET lightning data and Polar 55C (working both in PPI and RHI scanning mode) observations. Location of regions of high horizontal reflectivity (Zh) values ( > 50 dBz), indicating convective precipitation, were found to be associated to a high number of LINET strokes. In addition, an hydrometeor classification scheme applied to the Polar 55C scans was used to detect graupel and to identify a relation between number of LINET strokes and integrated IWC of graupel along the event. Properties of DSDs measured by the 2DVD and vertical DSD profiles estimated by MRR and their relation with the lighting activity registered by LINET were investigated with specific focus on the transition from convective to stratiform regimes. A good agreement was found between convection detected by these instruments and the number of strokes detected by LINET.

Roberto, N.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) Risk Analysis Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) directorate at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) has applied its knowledge and experience with Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to projects in industries ranging from spacecraft to nuclear power plants. PRA is a comprehensive and structured process for analyzing risk in complex engineered systems and/or processes. The PRA process enables the user to identify potential risk contributors such as, hardware and software failure, human error, and external events. Recent developments in the oil and gas industry have presented opportunities for NASA to lend their PRA expertise to both ongoing and developmental projects within the industry. This paper provides an overview of the PRA process and demonstrates how this process was applied in estimating the probability that a Mobile Offshore Drilling Unit (MODU) operating in the Gulf of Mexico and equipped with a generically configured Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) loses location and needs to initiate an emergency disconnect. The PRA described in this paper is intended to be generic such that the vessel meets the general requirements of an International Maritime Organization (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC)/Circ. 645 Class 3 dynamically positioned vessel. The results of this analysis are not intended to be applied to any specific drilling vessel, although provisions were made to allow the analysis to be configured to a specific vessel if required.

Thigpen, Eric B.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) Risk Analysis Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

Thigpen, Eric B.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Searching for Neutrino Tridents in the NOvA Near Detector

This dissertation presents a search for neutrino trident production in the NOvA near detector through the coherent ``dimuon" channel: $\nu_\mu +\hspace{1pt}\text{X} \rightarrow \nu_\mu + \mu^- + \mu^+ +\hspace{1pt}\text{X}$. Trident production is a rare, purely electroweak process with sensitivity to physics beyond the Standard Model. The theoretical background, motivation for studying the process, and previous experimental measurements are reviewed. The analysis uses data collected by the NOvA near detector (ND) from Fermilab's Neutrinos at the Main Injector (NuMI) beam between November 2014 and February 2024, corresponding to an exposure of $25.5\times 10^{20}$ protons on target. The ND is a segmented tracking calorimeter located 800~m from the beam target, receiving neutrinos with a mean energy of 2~GeV. A multi-pass background reduction strategy is implemented, including the development of a novel dimuon-specific tracking technique. Trident candidates are identified using a boost ed decision tree classifier trained on simulated signal and background events. Limited background Monte Carlo statistics necessitate the use of functional fits to sideband data, which are extrapolated to estimate backgrounds in the signal region. The unblinded data contain 9 trident-like events, with an estimated background of 5.66 $\pm$ 5.15 events. This yields a best fit estimate of 3.34 tridents compared to the Standard Model prediction of 4.66. A profiled Feldman-Cousins method is used to determine a 90\% confidence interval of [0,9.1] on the number of signal events, corresponding to an upper limit of 1.95$\times$ the Standard Model prediction. This result represents the lowest energy search for trident events to date, and the first experimental contribution to the process in 27 years.

Bowles, Reed Scott [Indiana U.]↗

DOE OSTI2022

Gamma Ray Source Localization for Time Projection Chamber Telescopes Using Convolutional Neural Networks

Diverse phenomena such as positron annihilation in the Milky Way, merging binary neutron stars, and dark matter can be better understood by studying their gamma ray emission. Despite their importance, MeV gamma rays have been poorly explored at sensitivities that would allow for deeper insight into the nature of the gamma emitting objects. In response, a liquid argon time projection chamber (TPC) gamma ray instrument concept called GammaTPC has been proposed and promises exploration of the entire sky with a large field of view, large effective area, and high polarization sensitivity. Optimizing the pointing capability of this instrument is crucial and can be accomplished by leveraging convolutional neural networks to reconstruct electron recoil paths from Compton scattering events within the detector. In this investigation, we develop a machine learning model architecture to accommodate a large data set of high fidelity simulated electron tracks and reconstruct paths. We create two model architectures: one to predict the electron recoil track origin and one for the initial scattering direction. We find that these models predict the true origin and direction with extremely high accuracy, thereby optimizing the observatory’s estimates of the sky location of gamma ray sources.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2017

Synergistic Use of Nighttime Satellite Data, Electric Utility Infrastructure, and Ambient Population to Improve Power Outage Detections in Urban Areas

Natural and anthropogenic hazards are frequently responsible for disaster events, leading to damaged physical infrastructure, which can result in loss of electrical power for affected locations. Remotely-sensed, nighttime satellite imagery from the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi-NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Day/Night Band (DNB) can monitor power outages in disaster-affected areas through the identification of missing city lights. When combined with locally-relevant geospatial information, these observations can be used to estimate power outages, defined as geographic locations requiring manual intervention to restore power. In this study, we produced a power outage product based on Suomi-NPP VIIRS DNB observations to estimate power outages following Hurricane Sandy in 2012. This product, combined with known power outage data and ambient population estimates, was then used to predict power outages in a layered, feedforward neural network model. We believe this is the first attempt to synergistically combine such data sources to quantitatively estimate power outages. The VIIRS DNB power outage product was able to identify initial loss of light following Hurricane Sandy, as well as the gradual restoration of electrical power. The neural network model predicted power outages with reasonable spatial accuracy, achieving Pearson coefficients (r) between 0.48 and 0.58 across all folds. Our results show promise for producing a continental United States (CONUS)- or global-scale power outage monitoring network using satellite imagery and locally-relevant geospatial data.

da/night band↗

DOE OSTI2021

Studying drought-induced forest mortality using high spatiotemporal resolution evapotranspiration data from thermal satellite imaging

Drought can have pervasive and wide-spread impacts to forest health, as evidenced in several severe events occurring over the recent decades. Extensive forest die-off due to drought can impair the ecological functioning of forests, impacting habitat, water yield and quality from forested lands, and altering forest fire dynamics and intensity. Satellite remote sensing provides an effective means for detecting and monitoring spatial patterns of forest mortality over large areas, exploiting free and open long-term image archives available at a range in spatial and temporal resolutions. While remotely sensed surface reflectances and vegetation indices have been widely used to study optical response of forest canopies to drought events, retrievals of evapotranspiration (ET) derived from thermal satellite imagery – particularly at resolutions approaching crown scale - can provide insights into cumulative tree stresses that can incite disease and trigger mortality. In this study, we applied a multi-sensor satellite data fusion approach to estimate daily 30-m resolution ET and an associated Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) to study drought-induced mortality in a temperate forest at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) site, located in the central United States. The study covered the period from 2010 to 2014, including an exceptional drought year of 2012. Modeled ET agreed well with eddy flux measurements from the MOFLUX tower, with average monthly relative errors of 15%. Plot-scale ESI, describing temporal anomalies in the ratio of actual-to-reference ET, was used as an index of relative forest health to investigate relationships between forest mortality and drought severity. ESI showed good agreement with observed predawn leaf water potential, especially during the drought year. Furthermore, plot-scale ESI was also correlated with the subsequent year's tree mortality, suggesting the importance of considering the forest health condition prior to drought when studying drought-induced forest impacts. This study demonstrates the utility of multi-year ET remote sensing data at the stand or plot scale as an indicator of forest health and as a predictor of future mortality due to drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1999

Jet Mixing Enhancement by Feedback Control

The objective of this work has been to produce methodologies for high speed jet noise reduction based on natural mechanisms and enhanced feedback control to affect frequencies and structures in a prescribed manner. In this effort the two-point hot wire measurements obtained in the Langley jet facility by Ukeiley were used in conjuction with linear stochastic estimation (LSE) to implement the LSE component of the complementary technique. This method combines the Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) and LSE to provide an experimental low dimensional time dependent description of the flow field. From such a description it should be possible to identify short time high strain rate events in the jet which contribute to the noise. The main task completed for this effort is summarized: LSE experiments were performed at the downstream locations where the two point hot wire measurements have been obtained by Ukeiley. These experiments involved sampling simultaneously hot wire signals from a relatively course spatial grid in gamma and theta. From this simultaneous data, coupled with the two-point measurements of Ukeiley via the LSE components of the complementary technique, an experimental low dimensional description of the jet at 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8 diameters downstream was obtained for Mach numbers of 0.3 and 0.6. We first present an overview of the theory involved. We finish up with a statement of the work performed and finally provide charts from a 1999 APS talk which summarizes the results.

Glauser, Mark↗

DOE OSTI2026

Preliminary Seismic Yield Estimates of the July 1, 2025 Explosions near Esparto California

A series of large damaging explosions involving fireworks storage occurred near Esparto, Yolo County California on July 1, 2025. Three explosions were located and reported by the University of California Berkeley Seismology Laboratory (UCB/BSL) and the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Analysis of local distance (< 30 km) seismic recordings of the first blast indicates that there were actually three explosions with later blasts delayed by about 3 and 30 seconds. We measured the first arriving P-wave amplitudes on four of these events with good signal-to-noise ratios.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Frequency of Sex: Population Genomics Reveals Differences in Recombination and Population Structure of the Aflatoxin-Producing Fungus Aspergillus flavus

The apparent rarity of sex in many fungal species has raised questions about how much sex is needed to purge deleterious mutations and how differences in frequency of sex impact fungal evolution. We sought to determine how differences in the extent of recombination between populations of Aspergillus flavus impact the evolution of genes associated with the synthesis of aflatoxin, a notoriously potent carcinogen. We sequenced the genomes of, and quantified aflatoxin production in, 94 isolates of A. flavus sampled from seven states in eastern and central latitudinal transects of the United States. The overall population is subdivided into three genetically differentiated populations (A, B, and C) that differ greatly in their extent of recombination, diversity, and aflatoxin-producing ability. Estimates of the number of recombination events and linkage disequilibrium decay suggest relatively frequent sex only in population A. Population B is sympatric with population A but produces significantly less aflatoxin and is the only population where the inability of nonaflatoxigenic isolates to produce aflatoxin was explained by multiple gene deletions. Population expansion evident in population B suggests a recent introduction or range expansion. Population C is largely nonaflatoxigenic and restricted mainly to northern sampling locations through restricted migration and/or selection. Despite differences in the number and type of mutations in the aflatoxin gene cluster, codon optimization and site frequency differences in synonymous and nonsynonymous mutations suggest that low levels of recombination in some A. flavus populations are sufficient to purge deleterious mutations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1993

Estimating risk for earth-satellite attenuation prediction

Annual cumulative distributions of attenuation measurements and of rain-rate measurements were obtained from several locations in Europe and the United States. They were analyzed to estimate the year-to-year variability to be associated with a prediction of the expected cumulative distribution. Two models were constructed to estimate variability, an ad hoc model that summarized a number of observations when compared to model predictions and a probabilistic model that applied the ideas of order statistics to the prediction problem when the number of independent attenuation or rain-rate events in a sample year could be estimated. Based on these models, the statistical uncertainty in a model prediction may be estimated. The estimation procedure also provides an answer to the question of the number of years of observation needed to provide an estimate of the empirical distribution with a specified statistical uncertainty.

Crane, Robert K.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modelling detector-specific reconstruction uncertainties in LAr-TPC

The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) program features three Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LAr-TPC) detectors positioned along the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) axis: the Short Baseline Neutrino Near Detector, MicroBooNE, and the ICARUS T600. As the largest operational LAr-TPC, ICARUS T600 serves as the far detector, located 600 m from the BNB target. While its primary goal is to record neutrino events, it also detects other ionizing events, including cosmic rays. This work focuses on analyzing and modeling detector-specific reconstruction uncertainties in LAr-TPC. These inefficiencies, identified during the Pattern Recognition phase handled by the PANDORA algorithm, impact subsequent Particle Fits and Offline Analysis. Specifically, inaccuracies in track reconstruction can lead to significant physical consequences, such as erroneous particle energy estimates and poor Particle Identification (PID), reducing the efficiency of neutrino event characterization. A key issue addressed is split tracks, caused by missing hits or incomplete track stitching by PANDORA. The aim of this internship is to characterize, model, and quantify the impact of split tracks on track reconstruction.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

NASA NTRS2011

Maturation of Structural Health Management Systems for Solid Rocket Motors

Concepts of an autonomous and automated space-compliant diagnostic system were developed for conditioned-based maintenance (CBM) of rocket motors for space exploration vehicles. The diagnostic system will provide real-time information on the integrity of critical structures on launch vehicles, improve their performance, and greatly increase crew safety while decreasing inspection costs. Using the SMART Layer technology as a basis, detailed procedures and calibration techniques for implementation of the diagnostic system were developed. The diagnostic system is a distributed system, which consists of a sensor network, local data loggers, and a host central processor. The system detects external impact to the structure. The major functions of the system include an estimate of impact location, estimate of impact force at impacted location, and estimate of the structure damage at impacted location. This system consists of a large-area sensor network, dedicated multiple local data loggers with signal processing and data analysis software to allow for real-time, in situ monitoring, and longterm tracking of structural integrity of solid rocket motors. Specifically, the system could provide easy installation of large sensor networks, onboard operation under harsh environments and loading, inspection of inaccessible areas without disassembly, detection of impact events and impact damage in real-time, and monitoring of a large area with local data processing to reduce wiring.

Quing, Xinlin↗

DOE OSTI2026

Optimizing infrasound observations for sample return capsule re-entry: Insights from OSIRIS-REx and Hayabusa2

The atmospheric entry of meteoroids presents a rare and unpredictable phenomenon, posing challenges for systematic observation and detailed characterization. Such events are nonetheless critical for advancing understanding of acoustic wave propagation, atmospheric structure, and entry dynamics. In contrast, sample return capsules (SRCs) from space missions follow well constrained re-entry trajectories, enabling planned observations of shock wave generation and propagation under controlled conditions. This study compares two SRC atmospheric entries, Hayabusa2 in 2020 and OSIRIS-REx in 2023, to assess how different infrasound array configurations influence shock wave detection and trajectory validation. Hayabusa2’s re-entry was monitored using a distributed network of 28 portable infrasound sensors across seven arrays in Woomera, Australia, permitting three-dimensional reconstruction of the trajectory and analysis of wave characteristics. For OSIRIS-REx, a compact four-sensor array deployed near Eureka Airport provided trajectory confirmation through arrival-time differences and back-azimuth estimates. Spectral and waveform analyses revealed differences in signal properties associated with variations in entry angle and velocity. The results illustrate both the strengths and the limitations of the deployed array configurations. The dense and distributed arrays during Hayabusa2’s re-entry enabled detailed trajectory reconstruction, whereas the compact array at Eureka primarily provided confirmation of signal coherence and back-azimuth consistency. These case studies highlight that even relatively small arrays, if located close to the predicted ground track, can still capture useful information on arrival direction and timing. Such insights provide practical guidance for planning future observational campaigns of SRC returns and other controlled atmospheric entries, and may also inform approaches to opportunistic observations of meteoroid events and other atmospheric acoustic phenomena.

celestial mechanics: orbit determination↗

DOE OSTI2025

Geometric Interpretation of the Cluster Location Problem Part I: Theory

We present a new framing of the seismic location problem using principles drawn from differential geometry. Our interpretation relies upon the common assumption that travel times observed across a network are continuous, differentiable functions of source location. In consequence, travel‐time functions constitute a differentiable map between the source region and a Riemannian manifold. The manifold is said to be the image of the source region embedded in a generally high‐dimension travel‐time vector space. A cluster of events in the source region has an image of discrete points on the manifold, that, except in the simplest cases, cannot be viewed directly. However, it is possible to project the image of a cluster into a tangent space of the manifold for direct visualization. The projection operator can be computed directly from the data without a velocity model, but produces a distorted rendering of the cluster geometry. With a model we can predict the distortions and correct them to estimate cluster geometry. We develop these points with the simplest possible example, one for which direct visualization of the manifold is possible, using the example as an introduction to the relevant concepts from differential geometry in a familiar setting. The tangent space, a local linearization of the manifold, plays a key role. We develop a metric to estimate the limits of linearization, that is, to determine when the curvature of the manifold invalidates the linear assumption. We also examine the interplay of model error, inadequate network geometry, and pick error. We then generalize our results from the simple case to the general case of 3D source regions observed by general networks. Although we do suggest a new “project and correct” method for location, we do not develop it into a practical algorithm. In conclusion, our intention rather is to highlight new analytical methods grounded in differential geometry.

East Pacific Ocean Islands↗

DOE OSTI2020

Mummified baboons reveal the far reach of early Egyptian mariners

The Red Sea was witness to important events during human history, including the first long steps in a trade network (the spice route) that would drive maritime technology and shape geopolitical fortunes for thousands of years. Punt was a pivotal early node in the rise of this enterprise, serving as an important emporium for luxury goods, including sacred baboons ( Papio hamadryas ), but its location is disputed. Here, we use geospatial variation in the oxygen and strontium isotope ratios of 155 baboons from 77 locations to estimate the geoprovenance of mummified baboons recovered from ancient Egyptian temples and tombs. Five Ptolemaic specimens of P. anubis (404–40 BC) showed evidence of long-term residency in Egypt prior to mummification, consistent with a captive breeding program. Two New Kingdom specimens of P. hamadryas were sourced to a region that encompasses much of present-day Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Djibouti, and portions of Somalia and Yemen. This result is a testament to the tremendous reach of Egyptian seafaring during the 2nd millennium BC. It also corroborates the balance of scholarly conjecture on the location of Punt.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗