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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Parsing Weather Variability and Wildfire Effects on the Post-Fire Changes in Daily Stream Flows: A Quantile-Based Statistical Approach and Its Application

Determining wildland fire impacts on streamflow can be problematic as the hydrology in burned watersheds is influenced by post-fire weather conditions. Here, this study presents a quantile-based analytical framework for assessing fire impacts on low and peak daily flow magnitudes, while accounting for post-fire weather influences. This framework entails (a) the bootstrap method to compute the relative change in the post-fire annual flow and weather statistics, (b) double mass analysis to detect if post-fire baseflow and quick-flow yield ratios are significantly altered, and (c) a quantile regression method to parse fire effects on flow at a specific quantile. We illustrate the applicability of this analytical framework using 44 western US streams with at least 5% of their watershed area burned. Results indicate that large, high-severity burns in upland watersheds can raise the streamflow magnitude at the 0. 05 th and 0. 95 th quantiles for at least the five post-fire years. Quantile regression results show that the median fire-related increase in flow for the five post-fire years can be up to 5,000% (Standard Error; S.E. < 2%) at the 0. 05 th E quantile and 161% (S.E. < 10%) at the 0. 95 th quantile. The fire-related increase in flow was often pronounced at the 0. 05 th quantile for streams in the Pacific Northwest and California regions. The difference in fire effects on flow (at both quantiles) across streams was related to post-fire weather, pyrology, physiography, and land cover. The proposed analytical framework can be useful for detecting and quantifying fire effects on the low and peak stream flows in burned watersheds without overlapping disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stability Impact of IEEE 1547 Operational Mode Changes Under High DER Penetration in the Presence of Cyber Adversary

The IEEE 1547 standard addresses the integration of Distributed Energy Resources (DER) into Area Electric Power Systems (AEPS). The updated standard, released in 2018 with revisions ongoing, specifies the need for more flexible settings, requiring the DER to remain connected during certain disturbances and provide voltage support via active and reactive power modes. With these increased capabilities comes increased risks, and our analysis of the standard has produced potential settings combinations, which, while allowable under the standard, may actually create instability. This contradicts the main purpose of the revised standard. Since the DER must support a communication interface through which the AEPS operator can change settings, adversarial mode changes are possible via a cyberattack. This concern is heightened as DER penetration increases, where under a reasonable threat model, an attacker could affect multiple DER simultaneously. We have conducted a simulation analysis of potentially adverse combinations of mode change and ridethrough parameters on a hypothetical AEPS with varying degrees of DER penetration. We conclude that certain adverse mode changes, whether through error or cyberattack, can lead to unstable conditions with DER penetrations as low as 24% of the AEPS system capacity.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

SALT2 versus SALT3: updated model surfaces and their impacts on type Ia supernova cosmology

ABSTRACT For the past decade, SALT2 has been the most common model used to fit Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) light curves for dark energy analyses. Recently, the SALT3 model was released, which upgraded a number of model features but has not yet been used for measurements of dark energy. Here, we evaluate the impact of switching from SALT2 to SALT3 for a SN cosmology analysis. We train SALT2 and SALT3 on an identical training sample of 1083 well-calibrated Type Ia supernovae, ensuring that any differences found come from the underlying model framework. We publicly release the results of this training (the SALT ‘surfaces’). We then run a cosmology analysis on the public Dark Energy Survey 3-Yr Supernova data sample (DES-SN3YR), and on realistic simulations of those data. We provide the first estimate of the SN + CMB systematic uncertainty arising from the choice of SALT model framework (i.e. SALT2 versus SALT3), Δw = + 0.001 ± 0.005 – a negligible effect at the current level of dark energy analyses. We also find that the updated surfaces are less sensitive to photometric calibration uncertainties than previous SALT2 surfaces, with the average spectral energy density dispersion reduced by a factor of two over optical wavelengths. This offers an opportunity to reduce the contribution of calibration errors to SN cosmology uncertainty budgets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Automated pipeline framework for processing of large-scale building energy time series data

Commercial buildings account for one third of the total electricity consumption in the United States and a significant amount of this energy is wasted. Therefore, there is a need for “virtual” energy audits, to identify energy inefficiencies and their associated savings opportunities using methods that can be non-intrusive and automated for application to large populations of buildings. Here we demonstrate virtual energy audits applied to large populations of buildings’ time-series smart-meter data using a systematic approach and a fully automated Building Energy Analytics (BEA) Pipeline that unifies, cleans, stores and analyzes building energy datasets in a non-relational data warehouse for efficient insights and results. This BEA pipeline is based on a custom compute job scheduler for a high performance computing cluster to enable parallel processing of Slurm jobs. Within the analytics pipeline, we introduced a data qualification tool that enhances data quality by fixing common errors, while also detecting abnormalities in a building’s daily operation using hierarchical clustering. We analyze the HVAC scheduling of a population of 816 buildings, using this analytics pipeline, as part of a cross-sectional study. With our approach, this sample of 816 buildings is improved in data quality and is efficiently analyzed in 34 minutes, which is 85 times faster than the time taken by a sequential processing. The analytical results for the HVAC operational hours of these buildings show that among 10 building use types, food sales buildings with 17.75 hours of daily HVAC cooling operation are decent targets for HVAC savings. Overall, this analytics pipeline enables the identification of statistically significant results from population based studies of large numbers of building energy time-series datasets with robust results. These types of BEA studies can explore numerous factors impacting building energy efficiency and virtual building energy audits. This approach enables a new generation of data-driven buildings energy analysis at scale.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gaussian Kernel Methods for Seismic Fragility and Risk Assessment of Mid-Rise Buildings

Seismic fragility functions can be evaluated using the cloud analysis method with linear regression which makes three fundamental assumptions about the relation between structural response and seismic intensity: log-linear median relationship, constant standard deviation, and Gaussian distributed errors. While cloud analysis with linear regression is a popular method, the degree to which these individual and compounded assumptions affect the fragility and the risk of mid-rise buildings needs to be systematically studied. This paper conducts such a study considering three building archetypes that make up a bulk of the building stock: RC moment frame, steel moment frame, and wood shear wall. Gaussian kernel methods are employed to capture the data-driven variations in the median structural response and standard deviation and the distributions of residuals with the intensity level. With reference to the Gaussian kernels approach, it is found that while the linear regression assumptions may not affect the fragility functions of lower damage states, this conclusion does not hold for the higher damage states (such as the Complete state). In addition, the effects of linear regression assumptions on the seismic risk are evaluated. For predicting the demand hazard, it is found that the linear regression assumptions can impact the computed risk for larger structural response values. However, for predicting the loss hazard with downtime as the decision variable, linear regression can be considered adequate for all practical purposes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating the local dark matter density in a non-axisymmetric wobbling disc

The density of dark matter near the Sun, ρDM, ⊙, is important for experiments hunting for dark matter particles in the laboratory, and for constraining the local shape of the Milky Way’s dark matter halo. Estimates to date have typically assumed that the Milky Way’s stellar disc is axisymmetric and in a steady-state. Yet the Milky Way disc is neither, exhibiting prominent spiral arms and a bar, and vertical and radial oscillations. Here, we assess the impact of these assumptions on determinations of ρDM, ⊙ by applying a free-form, steady-state, Jeans method to two different N-body simulations of Milky Way-like galaxies. In one, the galaxy has experienced an ancient major merger, similar to the hypothesized Gaia–Sausage–Enceladus; in the other, the galaxy is perturbed more recently by the repeated passage and slow merger of a Sagittarius-like dwarf galaxy. We assess the impact of each of the terms in the Jeans–Poisson equations on our ability to correctly extract ρDM, ⊙ from the simulated data. We find that common approximations employed in the literature – axisymmetry and a locally flat rotation curve – can lead to significant systematic errors of up to a factor ~1.5 in the recovered surface mass density ~2 kpc above the disc plane, implying a fractional error on ρDM, ⊙ of the order of unity. However, once we add in the tilt term and the rotation curve term in our models, we obtain an unbiased estimate of ρDM, ⊙, consistent with the true value within our 95 percent confidence intervals for realistic 20 percent uncertainties on the baryonic surface density of the disc. Other terms – the axial tilt, 2nd Poisson and time-dependent terms – contribute less than 10 percent to ρDM, ⊙ (given current data) and can be safely neglected for now. In the future, as more data become available, these terms will need to be included in the analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Z α 2 correction to superallowed beta decays in effective field theory and implications for | V u d |

Superallowed ( 0 + → 0 + ) beta decays currently provide the most precise extraction of quark mixing in the Standard Model. Their interpretation as a measurement of | V u d | relies on a reliable first-principles computation of QED radiative corrections expressed as a series in Z α and α . In this work, we provide the first model-independent result for two-loop, O ( Z α 2 ) , long-distance radiative corrections where the nuclei are treated as heavy pointlike particles. We use renormalization group analysis to obtain new results at O ( Z α 3 ) for the coefficient of double logarithms in the ratio of the maximal beta energy to the inverse nuclear size, E m / R - 1 . We use the Kinoshita-Lee-Nauenberg theorem to obtain new results at O ( Z 2 α 3 ) for the coefficient of logarithms in the ratio of maximal beta energy to the electron mass, log ( 2 E m / m ) . We identify a structure-dependent, and, therefore, short-distance, contribution to the traditional Z α 2 correction that should be revisited. We provide the first comprehensive update to the long-distance corrections in almost 40 years and comment on the impact of our findings for extractions of | V u d | . We find that shifts in the long-distance corrections are 2.5 × larger than past estimates of their uncertainty, 1.5 × larger than the statistical uncertainty from the combined fit of superallowed decays, and about 1 / 2 the size of estimated systematic error, which stems dominantly from nuclear structure effects.

Cao, Zehua [Kentucky U.] (ORCID:0009000354256423)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Validation of wind resource and energy production simulations for small wind turbines in the United States

Abstract. Due to financial and temporal limitations, the small wind community relies upon simplified wind speed models and energy production simulation tools to assess site suitability and produce energy generation expectations. While efficient and user-friendly, these models and tools are subject to errors that have been insufficiently quantified at small wind turbine heights. This study leverages observations from meteorological towers and sodars across the United States to validate wind speed estimates from the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5), and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), revealing average biases within ±0.5 m s−1 at small wind hub heights. Observations from small wind turbines across the United States provide references for validating energy production estimates from the System Advisor Model (SAM), Wind Report, MyWindTurbine.com, and Global Wind Atlas 3 (GWA3), which are seen to overestimate actual annual capacity factors by 2.5, 4.2, 11.5, and 7.3 percentage points, respectively. In addition to quantifying the error metrics, this paper identifies sources of model and tool discrepancies, noting that interannual fluctuation in the wind resource, wind speed class, and loss assumptions produces more variability in estimates than different horizontal and vertical interpolation techniques. The results of this study provide small wind installers and owners with information about these challenges to consider when making performance estimates and thus possible adjustments accordingly. Looking to the future, recognizing these error metrics and sources of discrepancies provides model and tool researchers and developers with opportunities for product improvement that could positively impact small wind customer confidence and the ability to finance small wind projects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

The impact of the fiducial cosmology assumption on BAO distance scale measurements

ABSTRACT Standard analysis pipelines for measurements of Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) in galaxy surveys make use of a fiducial cosmological model to guide the data compression required to transform from observed redshifts and angles to the measured angular and radial BAO peak positions. In order to remove any dependence on the fiducial cosmology from the results, all models compared to the data should mimic the compression and its dependence on the fiducial model. In practice, approximations are made when testing models: (1) There is assumed to be no residual dependence on the fiducial cosmology after reconstruction, (2) differences in the distance–redshift relationship are assumed to match a linear scaling, and (3) differences in clustering between true and fiducial models are assumed to be removed by the free parameters used to null the non-BAO signal. We test these approximations using the current standard measurement procedure with a set of halo catalogues from the aemulus suite of N-body simulations, which span a range of wCDM cosmological models. We focus on reconstruction of the primordial BAO and locating the BAO. For the range of wCDM cosmologies covered by the aemulus suite, we find no evidence for systematic errors in the measured BAO shift parameters α∥ and α⊥ to $\lt 0.1\%$. However, the measured errors $\sigma _{\alpha _{\parallel }}$ and $\sigma _{\alpha _{\bot }}$ show a notable absolute increase by up to +0.001 and +0.002, respectively, in the case that the fiducial cosmology does not match the truth. These effects on the inferred BAO scale will be important, given the precision of measurements expected from future surveys including DESI, Euclid, and WFIRST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-Driven Digital Twin for Reliability Assessment of DC/DC Buck Converter

In commercial applications, the operation of DC/DC converters significantly impacts overall system performance and long-term reliability. This study introduces a data-driven digital twin (DT) approach for estimating critical degradation parameters of DC/DC BUCK converter under steady-state condition. Initially, a circuit-level MATLAB/Simulink digital model (DM C ) is refined against a hardware prototype’s switching model dataset using offline particle swarm optimization. The optimized digital model’s steady-state response is then verified with its average model response while varying the duty and load. Subsequently, degradation profiles are imposed on the inductor, capacitor, MOSFET in the DMC. A large dataset is generated from this model, allowing training, validation, and testing of machine learning (ML) models for component health regression tasks. The proposed method employs random forest ML models, achieving impressive regression results with a squared R value as high as 0.99978 and a root mean square error of 4.2× 10 –6 . The method is further validated on a medium power level DC/DC BUCK prototype with varying load conditions, and includes the analysis of MOSFET’s on-resistance under degradation conditions. This data-driven DT method shows promise for identifying parasitic degradation and ohmic loss parameters, enhancing converter reliability assessments in a non-invasive, generalized, and computationally efficient manner.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multiscale and Machine Learning Modeling for Process-informed Microstructure Prediction in Additively Manufactured Materials using MALAMUTE

The Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program under the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy aims to develop and qualify additively manufactured materials for nuclear applications. One key challenge to this is the microstructural variability observed in the additively manufactured products and their impact on the properties and performance of the material in extreme environments. AMMT is using a combination of high-throughput experimental and modeling techniques to accelerate qualification. Conventionally, in-situ and ex-situ characterizations and testing are performed to correlate different aspects of the additive manufacturing process to the final product and its performance. However, adopting a trial-and-error approach to experimentally evaluate the vast range of process parameters required to capture microstructural variability is cost-prohibitive. Modeling and simulation provide a comparatively inexpensive way to understand and correlate the microstructural evolution to the processing conditions. The modeling and simulation work-packages within the AMMT program aims to use physics-based and machine learning models to develop a digital twin for additive manufacturing that can correlate the process conditions to the final product and establish a process-structure-property-performance (PSPP) correlation. The melting and subsequent solidification that occurs during the additive process is a complex phenomenon that requires multiscale multiphysics analysis. This work package focuses on understanding the role of process variabilities on the unique microstructural characteristics of additively manufactured materials. Microstructural features at the subgrain level, such as compositional micro-heterogeneity and dislocation cells, are of particular interest here since they can influence the creep properties and radiation performance. Idaho National Laboratory’s Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), specifically the MOOSE Application Library for Advanced Manufacturing UTilitiEs (MALAMUTE) software, provides an ideal platform for developing the multiphysics multiscale model to explore the intricacies of the microstructural evolution during the AM processes within a single framework. Furthermore, given that such full-fidelity simulations can be computationally intensive, reduced order models are necessary to explore the PSPP space for additively manufactured materials in an efficient, reliable, and cost-effective way. This work focuses on capturing the microstructural variabilities at the subgrain level that are often missing in the part-scale models. In fiscal year 2025, we significantly advanced upon our work in the last fiscal year, in terms of the predictive capabilities of the physics-based and ML models, by adding the capabilities to capture subgrain-level micro-segregation during solidification using phase-field model and to predict the time-dependent dynamics of the AM process through the MOGPAR model. The alloy solidification model in MOOSE incorporates the thermodynamic properties and free energy relevant to 316 stainless steel. The model demonstrates the Cr and Ni segregation that occurs during solidification, including that the rate of solidification. The microstructural evolution model is connected to the process conditions via the surrogate model developed in this work. This enables predictions of the final microstructure in conjunctions with the manufacturing process. This work supports AMMT's rapid qualification goals by laying the foundation for an efficient and cost-effective model establishing the PSPP correlation for AM. The generated microstructures and predicted micro-segregation can be used by other work packages under AMMT to evaluate the properties and environmental response of the material at the mesoscale. Thus, this work helps to identify the key microstructural features at the subgrain level that are significant in property and performance predictions of additively manufactured components. This work will also provide inputs to the large-scale process variability models to reevaluate and validate assumptions and simplifications made in the part-scale models. Furthermore, through active learning this work can help identify the data need from both modeling and experimental sides for development of a robust digital twin for additive manufacturing and accelerate the AMMT's qualification efforts.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Economic Impact of Battery Degradation Modelling Uncertainty

Battery energy storage systems (BESS) are used for a variety of applications, with their economic benefit often being the decisive factor for deployment. A multitude of physico-chemical aging mechanisms lead to capacity fade over a BESS life cycle. The models that are used to describe this capacity fade are prone to inherent model errors. Through a holistic techno-economic modelling approach, we investigate the impact of battery degradation modelling uncertainty on the economic benefit of representative BESS applications. Here, it is shown how improved parameter fit quality can reduce the resulting economic uncertainty. Furthermore, we highlight that the consideration of degradation modelling uncertainty is especially crucial when: (i) the cash flow highly depends on the available battery capacity, (ii) a fixed, e.g. warranty mandated, state of health limit acts as the threshold for battery end-of-life, (iii) long evaluation periods and low discount rates are the focus of economic evaluation.

aging↗
DOE OSTI2024

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optical design and synthetic analysis of the electron cyclotron emission imaging diagnostic of HL-2M tokamak

The electron cyclotron emission imaging (ECEI) diagnostic is a powerful tool to study the MHD and turbulent transport in magnetically confined fusion plasmas. In this work, the optical system including the local oscillator (LO) coupling and radio frequency (RF) receiving optics, has been designed and analyzed for the HL-2M ECEI diagnostic. The LO optics can illuminate the antenna array and drive the mixer diode to work efficiently, with more than 36% of the beam intensity for the channels which probe the plasma edge relative to those of channels which probe the plasma core. The RF optics aims at guiding the plasma emission signal to the antenna array. To meet different physical requirements, three types of field of view have been achieved for the plasma imaging, with zoom factors of around 1, 1.5 and 2, respectively. The focal surfaces are almost flat, with a maximum off-mapping (defined as the radial distance between the beam waists of the lower-/uppermost antennas and electron cyclotron emission layer) less than 2.5 cm, which can match the electron cyclotron emission layer quite well and suppress the image distortion in the plasma edge region. Furthermore, the impact of possible vibrations and installation error on the focal plane has been evaluated. In addition, the predefined MHD and turbulence perturbations are well reproduced by combining the optical simulation results and synthetic ECEI modeling, which further verifies the good performance of the RF optics.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ensuring statistical reproducibility of ocean model simulations in the age of hybrid computing

Novel high performance computing systems that feature hybrid architectures require large scale code refactoring to unravel underlying exploitable parallelism. Such redesign can often be accompanied with machine-precision changes as the order of computation cannot always be maintained. For chaotic systems like climate models, these round-off level differences can grow rapidly. Systematic errors may also manifest initially as machine-precision differences. Isolating genuine round off level differences from such errors remains a challenge. Here, we apply two-sample equality of distribution tests to evaluate statistical reproducibility of the ocean model component of US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). A 2-year control simulation ensemble is compared to a modified ensemble as a test case - after a known non-bit-for-bit change in a model component is introduced - to evaluate the null hypothesis that the two ensembles are statistically indistinguishable. To quantify the false negative rates of these tests, we conduct a formal power analysis using a targeted suite of short simulation ensembles. The ensemble suite contains several perturbed ensembles, each with a progressively different climate than the baseline ensemble - obtained by perturbing the magnitude of a single model tuning parameter, the Gent and McWilliams κ, in a controlled manner. The null hypothesis is evaluated for each of perturbed ensembles using these tests. The power analysis informs on the detection limits of the tests for given ensemble size allowing model developers to evaluate the impact of an introduced non-bit-for-bit change to the model.

Mahajan, Salil↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of size and thermal gradient on supercooling of phase change materials for thermal energy storage

Phase change material based thermal energy storage has many current and potential applications in the heating and cooling of buildings, battery and electronics thermal management, thermal textiles, and dry cooling of power plants. However, connecting lab scale thermal data obtained with differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) to the performance of large-scale practical systems has been a major challenge primarily due to the dependence of supercooling on the size and temperature gradient of the system. Here we show how a phase change material’s supercooling behavior can be characterized experimentally using common lab scale thermal analysis techniques. We then develop a statistics based theoretical model that uses the lab-scale data on small samples to quantitatively predict the supercooling performance for a general thermal energy storage application of any size, including also allowing for the possibility of temperature gradients. Finally, we validate the modeling methodology by comparing to experimental results for solid-solid phase change in neopentyl glycol, which shows how the model successfully predicts the changes in supercooling temperature across a large range of cooling rates (2 orders of magnitude) and volumes (3 orders of magnitude). By accounting for thermal gradients, the model avoids ~2x error incurred by lumped approximations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Measurement of the 239 Pu$(n, f$) prompt fission neutron spectrum from 10 keV to 10 MeV induced by neutrons of energy 1–20 MeV

Although the prompt fission neutron spectrum (PFNS) is an essential component of neutron-driven systems that has been measured for decades, there are still multiple glaring unknowns regarding the PFNS of major actinides in the fission neutron incident energy range, specifically with regard to multichance fission and pre-equilibrium neutron emission processes. The only impactful experimental 239 Pu PFNS measurements included in recent nuclear data evaluations were measured over a limited outgoing neutron energy range at thermal and 1.5-MeV average incident neutron energy, while other potentially impactful measurements have been shown to contain errors that resulted in either large uncertainty increases or in complete exclusion from nuclear data evaluation. Here, we report a measurement of the 239 Pu PFNS over a wide range of incident neutron energy (1–20 MeV) and three orders of magnitude in outgoing neutron energy (0.01–10 MeV) resulting from the Chi-Nu experiment at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center. These results are the combination of separate PFNS measurements in the same experimental area, one using a Li-glass and the other a liquid scintillator detector array. Covariances between all PFNS data points from each detector and within each incident energy range were generated between all other data in both detector arrays and within all other incident neutron energy bins, yielding a single covariance matrix for all 1300 PFNS data points reported here. These covariances are based on a thorough assessment of systematic bias and uncertainties associated with the measurement, PFNS extraction technique, combination of data from each detector type, and other aspects of the analysis. The existence of covariances between PFNS data points in different incident neutron energy ranges yielded covariances between average PFNS energy values at each incident energy to be reported here as well, which allowed for firm statements to be made regarding a shape of a purely experimental mean PFNS energy trend for the first time. Although minor PFNS shape differences exist between the results reported here and recent nuclear data evaluations, the ENDF/B-VIII.0 and JEFF-3.3 PFNS evaluations agree reasonably well with the present results from 1-to 10-MeV incident neutron energy, which spans the well-measured 1.5-MeV incident neutron energy PFNS from Lestone and Shores as well as the onset of second-chance fission. However, while the pre-equilibrium component of the PFNS above 12-MeV incident neutron energy roughly agrees in position and magnitude with ENDF/B-VIII.0 and JEFF-3.3, clear differences relating to the relative magnitude of third-chance fission PFNS features are present in the PFNS shape and in the mean PFNS energy trends.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multiscale and Machine Learning Modeling for Process-informed Microstructure Prediction in Additively Manufactured Materials Using MALAMUTE

Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program under the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy, aims to develop and qualify additively-manufactured materials for nuclear applications. The key challenges to these efforts are the microstructural variabilities observed on the AM products and their impact on the properties and performance of the material in extreme environments. AMMT is using a combination of high-through-put experimental and modeling techniques to accelerate the qualification efforts. Conventionally, in-situ and ex-situ characterizations and testing are performed to correlate different aspects of the AM process to the final product and its performance. However, adopting a trial-and-error approach to experimentally evaluate the vast range of process parameters required to capture the microstructural variabilities is cost-prohibitive. Modeling and simulation provide a comparatively inexpensive way to understand and correlate the microstructural evolution to the processing conditions. The modeling and simulation work-packages within the AMMT program aims to use physics-based and machine learning modeling capabilities to develop a digital twin for AM that can correlate the process conditions to the final product and establish a process-structure-property-performance (PSPP) correlation for AM materials. The melting and subsequent solidification that occurs during the AM process is a complex phenomenon that requires multiscale multiphysics analysis. Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), specifically the MOOSE Application Library for Advanced Manufacturing UTilitiEs (MALAMUTE) software, provides an ideal platform for developing the multiphysics multiscale model to explore the intricacies of the microstructural evolution during the AM processes within a single framework. Furthermore, given that such full-fidelity simulations can be computationally intensive, reduced order models are necessary to explore the PSPP space for AM materials in an efficient, reliable, and cost-effective way. This work package focuses on understanding the role of process variabilities on the various microstructural characteristics of the AM materials. Microstructures unique to AM materials, such as compositional micro-heterogeneity and dislocation cells, are of particular interest here since they can influence the creep properties and radiation performance. In fiscal year (FY) 24, we significantly advanced upon our work in the last fiscal year, both on physics-based and ML models. The alloy solidification model available in MOOSE has been extended to incorporate the thermodynamic properties and free energy relevant to 316SS. The model demonstrates the Cr segregation that occurs during solidifcation. It is demonstrated that rate of solidification and solute segregation is primarily influence by the cooling rate dictating the level of freezing. This work captures the microstructural variabilities at the subgrain level that are often missing in the part-scale models. With an aim to connect the microstructural evolution model to realistic process conditions, a reduced order model is developed for predicting the thermal conditions around meltpool from high-fidelity process simulations. Furthermore, machine learning approach is used to accelerate the temperature prediction during the AM process. In the following years, MALAMUTE will be used to connect different aspects of the models and quantitatively predict the microstructural evolution. The developed ML-based surrogate model will consider the process conditions as the input to predict the microstructural features in a cost-effective way. The generated microstructures can be used by other work packages under AMMT to evaluate the properties and environmental response of the material at the mesoscale. Thus, this work help identify the key microstructural features at the subgrain level that are significant in property/performance prediction of the AM products. This work will provide inputs to the large-scale process variability models to reevaluate and validate assumptions/simplifications made in the part-scale models. Furthermore, through active learning this work will help identify the data need from both modeling and experimental sides for development of a robust digital twin for AM.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗