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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian Framework for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-preserving enriched Galerkin method for a fully-coupled thermo-poroelasticity model

This paper proposes a new numerical method for a fully-coupled, quasi-static thermo-poroelasticity model in a unified enriched Galerkin (EG) method framework. In our method, the mechanics sub-problem is solved using a locking-free EG method, and the flow and heat sub-problems are solved using a locally-conservative EG method. The proposed method offers mass and energy conservation properties with much lower costs than other methods with the same properties, including discontinuous Galerkin methods and mixed finite element methods. The well-posedness and optimal a priori error estimates are carefully derived. Here, several numerical tests confirm the theoretical optimal convergence rates and the mass and energy conservation properties of the new method.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian estimation of cross-section and errors of experiment and calculation for accurate prediction of neutronic characteristics

In some experiments, there might be a correlation of experimental errors such as an error caused by fabrication. The correlation of calculation errors also might exist among analyses of experiments. In the present study, considering these correlations, the cross-section and errors of experiment and calculation are adjusted for the accurate prediction of neutronic characteristics. The adjustment method is derived based on Bayesian theory. The 'a posteriori' distributions of cross-section and errors of experiment and calculation are obtained by the derivation. The case study is performed by using the benchmarks of light-water moderated experiments reported in ICSBEP. The error from fuel rod fabrication and measurement are included in the experiment error, and the error from the simplification of the benchmark model is included in the calculation error. Since these errors have a positive correlation among the benchmarks, the prediction accuracy is expected to be improved by considering these correlations. For the sensitivity analysis of the correlation among benchmarks, the correlation coefficient of experiment error and that of calculation error is assumed from 0.0 to 0.9. The results indicate that the prediction accuracy of the multiplication factor can be improved by increasing the correlation coefficient of experiment error and that of calculation error. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multitiered computational methodology for extracting three-dimensional rotational diffusion coefficients from x-ray photon correlation spectroscopy data without structural information

X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy (XPCS) is a powerful technique for analyzing particle systems by investigating their dynamics in suspensions across a broad range of temporal and spatial scales. This is done by illuminating samples with coherent x-ray beams and calculating the correlation function of the obtained x-ray scattering images. XPCS is uniquely suited for studying Brownian dynamics, consisting of translational and rotational diffusion. While traditional XPCS image analysis techniques can extract translational diffusion components, they are unable to estimate rotational diffusion coefficients. Here, we introduce a methodology that combines the angular-temporal cross-correlation analysis and a algorithmic framework called Multi-Tiered Estimation for Correlation Spectroscopy in 3D for estimating three-dimensional rotational diffusion coefficients from XPCS images of three-dimensional particle systems. We demonstrate our methodology for extracting rotational diffusion coefficients from XPCS data by applying it to simulated noisy x-ray images of systems of crossing nanotubes and proteins that evolve under translational and rotational Brownian motion for different diffusion rates. Furthermore, our results show that our approach determines rotational diffusion coefficients within a few percent error.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating the Likelihood of GHG Concentration Scenarios From Probabilistic Integrated Assessment Model Simulations

The climate scenarios that form the basis for current climate risk assessments have no assigned probabilities, and this impedes the analysis of future climate risks. This paper proposes an approach to estimate the probability of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration scenarios used in key climate change modeling experiments. It computes the CO 2 emissions compatible with the concentrations prescribed by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP6 experiments. The distribution of these compatible cumulative emissions is interpreted as the likelihood of future emissions given a concentration pathway. Using Bayesian analysis, the probability of each pathway can be estimated from a probabilistic sample of future emissions. The approach is demonstrated with five probabilistic CO 2 emission simulation ensembles from four Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), leading to independent estimates of the likelihood of the CO 2 concentration of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). Results suggest that SSP5-8.5 is unlikely for the second half of the 21st century, but offer no clear consensus on which of the remaining scenarios is most likely. Estimates of likelihoods of CO 2 concentrations associated with RCP and SSP scenarios are affected by sampling errors, differences in emission sources simulated by the IAMs, and a lack of a common experimental framework for IAM simulations. These shortcomings, along with a small IAM ensemble size, limit the applicability of the results presented here. Novel joint IAM and the Earth System Model experiments are needed to deliver actionable probabilistic climate risk assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fast permeability measurement for tight reservoir cores using only initial data of the one chamber pressure pulse decay test

Here, in this study, a mathematical model for fast determination of the permeabilities of tight rocks using measurements taken from the initial period of the One Chamber Pressure Pulse Decay (OC-PPD) test is presented. The model applies to measurements taken both before and after the pressure pulse front has reached the downstream end of the specimen. The analytical solutions for the pressure decay in the upstream chamber are derived based on a parabolic arc approximation of pore pressure distribution along the test specimen. This approximation allows converting the initial–boundary value problem of fluid diffusion in the specimen, governed by partial differential equations, to a system of ordinary differential equations that can be easily solved by explicit formulae. Thus, an explicit formula for the pressure decay rate is obtained, which enables inverse analysis of the initial experimental data to estimate the rock permeability. The proposed method expedites the pulse decay test as it does not require the system to reach equilibrium. The method is validated with three sets of experimental data of the OC-PPD test using helium as the diffusing fluid, for which the relative error of the permeability is found to be less than 6%. This method is particularly useful if the equilibrium time of the pulse decay test for rock specimens with permeabilities in the range of nano-Darcy takes hours or days.

early-time solution↗
DOE OSTI2026

Early calendar life and health prediction of silicon batteries via machine learning with uncertainty quantification

Lithium-ion batteries with silicon anodes promise high energy density but are limited by calendar lifetime. Reducing the long iteration time to obtain experimental results requires predicting calendar lifetime early in a cell's life. In this study, we demonstrate that lightweight machine learning models with feature engineering can provide calendar lifetime estimates from early electrochemical signals. After 1 month of electrochemical aging, the best models achieve 10% error in calendar-life prediction and can separate "bad" from "good" lifetime cells with a mean F1 score of 0.857. As battery systems exhibit inherent variability, four methods for uncertainty quantification are compared, and confidence intervals are demonstrated with an uncertainty of +-3.6 months in lifetime prediction. A feature importance analysis indicates that early patterns in voltage decay are the strongest indicators of calendar lifetime. Finally, this modeling approach has high error when generalizing to new electrode chemistries or testing conditions but with appropriately low confidence.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparing traditional and Bayesian approaches to ecological meta‐analysis

Abstract Despite the wide application of meta‐analysis in ecology, some of the traditional methods used for meta‐analysis may not perform well given the type of data characteristic of ecological meta‐analyses. We reviewed published meta‐analyses on the ecological impacts of global climate change, evaluating the number of replicates used in the primary studies ( n i ) and the number of studies or records ( k ) that were aggregated to calculate a mean effect size. We used the results of the review in a simulation experiment to assess the performance of conventional frequentist and Bayesian meta‐analysis methods for estimating a mean effect size and its uncertainty interval. Our literature review showed that n i and k were highly variable, distributions were right‐skewed and were generally small (median n i = 5, median k = 44). Our simulations show that the choice of method for calculating uncertainty intervals was critical for obtaining appropriate coverage (close to the nominal value of 0.95). When k was low (<40), 95% coverage was achieved by a confidence interval (CI) based on the t distribution that uses an adjusted standard error (the Hartung–Knapp–Sidik–Jonkman, HKSJ), or by a Bayesian credible interval, whereas bootstrap or z distribution CIs had lower coverage. Despite the importance of the method to calculate the uncertainty interval, 39% of the meta‐analyses reviewed did not report the method used, and of the 61% that did, 94% used a potentially problematic method, which may be a consequence of software defaults. In general, for a simple random‐effects meta‐analysis, the performance of the best frequentist and Bayesian methods was similar for the same combinations of factors ( k and mean replication), though the Bayesian approach had higher than nominal (>95%) coverage for the mean effect when k was very low ( k < 15). Our literature review suggests that many meta‐analyses that used z distribution or bootstrapping CIs may have overestimated the statistical significance of their results when the number of studies was low; more appropriate methods need to be adopted in ecological meta‐analyses.

Pappalardo, Paula↗
DOE OSTI2025

Revisiting a minimally destructive analytic approach for determining electrochemical kinetic parameters: Measuring aluminum corrosion across a wide pH range based on the Butler-Volmer equation

Here, this study revisits the three-point sampling of the simplified Butler-Volmer equation to address the limitations of strong potentiodynamic polarization, which can introduce irreversible damage and uncertainty in corrosion analysis. The method extracts electrochemical kinetic parameters while minimizing polarization effects, evaluates noise sensitivity relative to overpotential, and accounts for errors from signal noise, OCP drift, ohmic resistance, and mass-transfer constraints. Verified against the Tafel extrapolation method for aluminum corrosion across a wide pH range, this low-polarization approach enables accurate evaluations with specific error estimates, offering a robust alternative to linear polarization resistance methods that assume constant Tafel slopes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo using machine learning models

Here, this work presents an efficient approach for accelerating multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for large-scale problems using low-fidelity machine learning models. While conventional techniques for large-scale Bayesian inference often substitute computationally expensive high-fidelity models with machine learning models, thereby introducing approximation errors, our approach offers a computationally efficient alternative by augmenting high-fidelity models with low-fidelity ones within a hierarchical framework. The multilevel approach utilizes the low-fidelity machine learning model (MLM) for inexpensive evaluation of proposed samples thereby improving the acceptance of samples by the high-fidelity model. The hierarchy in our multilevel algorithm is derived from geometric multigrid hierarchy. We utilize an MLM to accelerate the coarse level sampling. Training machine learning model for the coarsest level significantly reduces the computational cost associated with generating training data and training the model. We present an MCMC algorithm to accelerate the coarsest level sampling using MLM and account for the approximation error introduced. We provide theoretical proofs of detailed balance and demonstrate that our multilevel approach constitutes a consistent MCMC algorithm. Additionally, we derive the expression for cost reduction due to machine learning model to facilitate cost analysis of the hierarchical sampling algorithm. Our technique is demonstrated on a standard benchmark inference problem in groundwater flow, where we estimate the probability density of a quantity of interest using a four-level MCMC algorithm. Our proposed algorithm accelerates multilevel sampling by a factor of two while achieving similar accuracy compared to sampling using the standard multilevel algorithm.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Perturbation-Based Diagnosis of False Data Injection Attack Using Distributed Energy Resources

Modern smart grid relies on various sensor measurements for its operational control. In a successful false data injection attack, the attacker manipulates the measurements from the grid sensors such that undetected errors are introduced into the estimates of the system parameters leading to catastrophic situations. This paper proposes a novel perturbation based false data injection attack detection mechanism that utilizes inverter based distributed energy resources (DERs) to create low magnitude perturbation signal in the distribution system voltage that is inconsequential to the normal grid operation. Two voltage sensitivity analysis based algorithms are designed to identify the optimal set of DERs that can create the voltage perturbation signal of desired magnitude. An analytical method of voltage sensitivity analysis is used to compute the magnitude of voltage perturbation signal at each node in a computationally efficient manner. Then, a detection mechanism is developed that checks for the presence of the perturbation sequence in each sensor measurement. A sensor measurement is deemed authentic if the voltage perturbation signal is present in the data. In case of sensor malfunction or cyber-attack, the perturbation signal will not be present in the measurement data. Performance of the proposed attack detection mechanism is validated via simulation of the IEEE 69 bus test system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Nonintrusive Optical Approach to Characterize Heliostats in Utility-Scale Power Tower Plants: Camera Position Sensitivity Analysis

Optics plays a major role in the effectiveness of concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies. The nonintrusive optical (NIO) approach developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory uses uncrewed aircraft system (UAS)-based imaging to survey heliostats in a commercial-scale power tower CSP plant and characterize their optical errors. The image processing algorithm uses photogrammetry to calculate the camera position for each image frame, and the accuracy of the estimated optical errors is highly sensitive to the calculated camera position accuracy. In this study, we simulate a series of case studies in python to examine the impact of different parameters of the sensitivity of the camera calculation, including the number of facet corners used as control points for the photogrammetric calculation, precision error in the detected pixel locations of the facet corners in the image, and precision error of the canting and mounting positions of the facets of the heliostat. The case studies consider heliostat geometry based on three commercial designs to serve as representative examples of different possible sizes of heliostats that the NIO method could be applied to. The results show that increasing the number of control points can improve accuracy for heliostats with many facets, pixel precision has a significantly larger impact on camera calculation accuracy than facet canting and mounting errors, and the camera distance and focal length must be chosen to ensure adequate pixel accuracy on the heliostat surface depending on the size of heliostat. In conclusion, based on the results, recommendations for the allowable values of each parameter are provided to achieve the required NIO optical error estimation accuracy depending on the size of heliostat.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Bayesian analysis of classical shadows

Abstract The method of classical shadows proposed by Huang, Kueng, and Preskill heralds remarkable opportunities for quantum estimation with limited measurements. Yet its relationship to established quantum tomographic approaches, particularly those based on likelihood models, remains unclear. In this article, we investigate classical shadows through the lens of Bayesian mean estimation (BME). In direct tests on numerical data, BME is found to attain significantly lower error on average, but classical shadows prove remarkably more accurate in specific situations—such as high-fidelity ground truth states—which are improbable in a fully uniform Hilbert space. We then introduce an observable-oriented pseudo-likelihood that successfully emulates the dimension-independence and state-specific optimality of classical shadows, but within a Bayesian framework that ensures only physical states. Our research reveals how classical shadows effect important departures from conventional thinking in quantum state estimation, as well as the utility of Bayesian methods for uncovering and formalizing statistical assumptions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating the evidence for exponential quantum advantage in ground-state quantum chemistry

Due to intense interest in the potential applications of quantum computing, it is critical to understand the basis for potential exponential quantum advantage in quantum chemistry. Here we gather the evidence for this case in the most common task in quantum chemistry, namely, ground-state energy estimation, for generic chemical problems where heuristic quantum state preparation might be assumed to be efficient. The availability of exponential quantum advantage then centers on whether features of the physical problem that enable efficient heuristic quantum state preparation also enable efficient solution by classical heuristics. Through numerical studies of quantum state preparation and empirical complexity analysis (including the error scaling) of classical heuristics, in both ab initio and model Hamiltonian settings, we conclude that evidence for such an exponential advantage across chemical space has yet to be found. While quantum computers may still prove useful for ground-state quantum chemistry through polynomial speedups, it may be prudent to assume exponential speedups are not generically available for this problem.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantum Filtering and Analysis of Multiplicities in Eigenvalue Spectra

Fine-grained spectral properties of quantum Hamiltonians, including both eigenvalues and their multiplicities, provide useful information for characterizing many-body quantum systems as well as for understanding phenomena such as topological order. Extracting such information with small additive error is #BQP-complete in the worst case. In this work, we introduce QFAMES (quantum filtering and analysis of multiplicities in eigenvalue spectra), a quantum algorithm that efficiently identifies clusters of closely spaced dominant eigenvalues and determines their multiplicities under physically motivated assumptions, which allows us to bypass worst-case complexity barriers. QFAMES also enables the estimation of observable expectation values within targeted energy clusters, providing a powerful tool for studying quantum phase transitions and other physical properties. We validate the effectiveness of QFAMES through numerical demonstrations, including its applications to characterizing quantum phases in the transverse-field Ising model and estimating the ground-state degeneracy of a topologically ordered phase in the two-dimensional toric code model. We also generalize QFAMES to the setting of mixed initial states. Our approach offers rigorous theoretical guarantees and significant advantages over existing subspace-based quantum spectral analysis methods, particularly in terms of the sample complexity and the ability to resolve degeneracies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Reproducible Validation of Algorithms for Estimating Array Tilt and Azimuth from Photovoltaic Power Time Series

In this research, we assess the viability of four different, publicly available algorithms for estimating the azimuth and tilt parameters of solar photovoltaic systems using only the associated AC power time series data and site latitude-longitude coordinates. In this work, we curated a benchmarking data set of 44 fixed-tilt systems, comprising 275 measured AC power inverter data streams, with known azimuth and tilt parameters. Additionally, we isolated test cases in the data set with real- world issues, including shading and clipping, to determine how algorithm performance varies based on the presence of these phenomena. Using this data set for benchmarking, we evaluated the estimated vs. actual system characteristics for each algorithm, as well as the associated algorithm execution time using a standardized benchmarking process. The two highest performing algorithms were the Solar Data Tools and the PVWatts 5- based methods, which both achieved a median absolute error of approximately 5 and 1 degrees for azimuth and tilt, respectively. During run time analysis, the SDT method was approximately 5 times faster than the PVWatts 5-based method, with the median execution time for a stream varying between 6 and 8 seconds vs. a median run time of 31 seconds for the PVWatts 5-based method.

azimuth↗
DOE OSTI2025

Near-Efficient and Non-Asymptotic Multiway Inference

We establish non-asymptotic efficiency guarantees for tensor decomposition–based inference in count data models. Under a Poisson framework, we consider two related goals: (i) parametric inference , the estimation of the full distributional parameter tensor, and (ii) multiway analysis , the recovery of its canonical polyadic (CP) decomposition factors. Our main result shows that in the rank-one setting, a rank-constrained maximum-likelihood estimator achieves multiway analysis with variance matching the Cramér–Rao Lower Bound (CRLB) up to absolute constants and logarithmic factors. This provides a general framework for studying “near-efficient” multiway estimators in finite-sample settings. For higher ranks, we illustrate that our multiway estimator may not attain the CRLB; nevertheless, CP-based parametric inference remains nearly minimax optimal, with error bounds that improve on prior work by offering more favorable dependence on the CP rank. Numerical experiments corroborate near-efficiency in the rank-one case and highlight the efficiency gap in higher-rank scenarios.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Reproducible Validation of Algorithms for Estimating Array Tilt and Azimuth from Photovoltaic Power Time Series

In this research, we assess the viability of four different, publicly available algorithms for estimating the azimuth and tilt parameters of solar photovoltaic systems using only the associated AC power time series data and site latitude-longitude coordinates. In this work, we curated a benchmarking data set of 44 fixed-tilt systems, comprising 275 measured AC power inverter data streams, with known azimuth and tilt parameters. Additionally, we isolated test cases in the data set with real-world issues, including shading and clipping, to determine how algorithm performance varies based on the presence of these phenomena. Using this data set for benchmarking, we evaluated the estimated vs. actual system characteristics for each algorithm, as well as the associated algorithm execution time using a standardized benchmarking process. The two highest performing algorithms were the Solar Data Tools and the PVWatts 5-based methods, which both achieved a median absolute error of approximately 5 and 1 degrees for azimuth and tilt, respectively. During run time analysis, the SDT method was approximately 5 times faster than the PVWatts 5-based method, with the median execution time for a stream varying between 6 and 8 seconds vs. a median run time of 31 seconds for the PVWatts 5-based method.

algorithm validation↗