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Results for “error estimation and analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13

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NASA NTRS1992

Satellite-derived surface latent heat fluxes in a rapidly intensifying marine cyclone

Surface latent heat fluxes are estimated in the vicinity of a rapidly deepening cyclone before and during its period of most rapid intensification. This was done with a bulk parameterization scheme and remotely sensed input data. A method is studied for estimating the difference in specific humidity between the surface and a ten meter height using the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) observed integrated water vapor field and a sea surface temperature analysis. The surface latent heat flux fields generally have estimated errors below 40 pct. south of 40 deg. N and outside the region of high integrated water vapor values associated with frontal bands. The method of estimating surface latent heat fluxes for the case study was found to be usable in most regions of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean except for those locations directly adjacent to coastlines in instances of offshore flow and in the vicinity of surface fronts.

Miller, Douglas K.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Satellite-derived surface latent heat fluxes in a rapidly intensifying marine cyclone

The aim of this article is to estimate surface latent heat fluxes in the vicinity of a rapidly deepening cyclone before and during its period of most rapid intensification. This is done with a bulk parameterization scheme and remotely sensed input data. A method for estimating the difference in specific humidity between the surface and a 10-m height is investigated using the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager-observed integrated water vapor field and a sea surface temperature analysis. The surface latent heat flux fields generally have estimated errors below 40 percent south of 40 deg N and outside the region of high integrated water vapor values associated with frontal bands. The method of estimating surface latent heat fluxes for the case study was found to be usable in most regions of the northwest Atlantic Ocean except for those locations directly adjacent to coastlines in instances of offshore flow and in the vicinity of surface fronts.

Miller, Douglas K.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Global Warming Estimation from MSU

In this study, we have developed time series of global temperature from 1980-97 based on the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) Ch 2 (53.74 GHz) observations taken from polar-orbiting NOAA operational satellites. In order to create these time series, systematic errors (approx. 0.1 K) in the Ch 2 data arising from inter-satellite differences are removed objectively. On the other hand, smaller systematic errors (approx. 0.03 K) in the data due to orbital drift of each satellite cannot be removed objectively. Such errors are expected to remain in the time series and leave an uncertainty in the inferred global temperature trend. With the help of a statistical method, the error in the MSU inferred global temperature trend resulting from orbital drifts and residual inter-satellite differences of all satellites is estimated to be 0.06 K decade. Incorporating this error, our analysis shows that the global temperature increased at a rate of 0.13 +/- 0.06 K decade during 1980-97.

Prabhakara, C.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Predictive Thermal Control Applied to HabEx

Exoplanet science can be accomplished with a telescope that has an internal coronagraph or with an external starshade. An internal coronagraph architecture requires extreme wavefront stability (10 pm change/10 minutes for 10(exp -10) contrast), so every source of wavefront error (WFE) must be controlled. Analysis has been done to estimate the thermal stability required to meet the wavefront stability requirement. This paper illustrates the potential of a new thermal control method called predictive thermal control (PTC) to achieve the required thermal stability. A simple development test using PTC indicates that PTC may meet the thermal stability requirements. Further testing of the PTC method in flight-like environments will be conducted in the X-ray and Cryogenic Facility (XRCF) at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC).

Brooks, Thomas E.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Longwave surface radiation over the globe from satellite data - An error analysis

Errors have been analyzed for monthly-average downward and net longwave surface fluxes derived on a 5-deg equal-area grid over the globe, using a satellite technique. Meteorological data used in this technique are available from the TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) system flown aboard NOAA's operational sun-synchronous satellites. The data used are for February 1982 from NOAA-6 and NOAA-7 satellites. The errors in the parametrized equations were estimated by comparing their results with those from a detailed radiative transfer model. The errors in the TOVS-derived surface temperature, water vapor burden, and cloud cover were estimated by comparing these meteorological parameters with independent measurements obtained from other satellite sources. Analysis of the overall errors shows that the present technique could lead to underestimation of downward fluxes by 5 to 15 W/sq m and net fluxes by 4 to 12 W/sq m.

Gupta, S. K.↗

DOE OSTI2020

FPDetect: Efficient Reasoning About Stencil Programs Using Selective Direct Evaluation

We present FPDetect, a low-overhead approach for detecting logical errors and soft errors affecting stencil computations without generating false positives. We develop an offline analysis that tightly estimates the number of floating-point bits preserved across stencil applications. This estimate rigorously bounds the values expected in the data space of the computation. Violations of this bound can be attributed with certainty to errors. FPDetect helps synthesize error detectors customized for user-specified levels of accuracy and coverage. FPDetect also enables overhead reduction techniques based on deploying these detectors coarsely in space and time. Experimental evaluations demonstrate the practicality of our approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2013

Dynamic Modeling Accuracy Dependence on Errors in Sensor Measurements, Mass Properties, and Aircraft Geometry

A nonlinear simulation of the NASA Generic Transport Model was used to investigate the effects of errors in sensor measurements, mass properties, and aircraft geometry on the accuracy of dynamic models identified from flight data. Measurements from a typical system identification maneuver were systematically and progressively deteriorated and then used to estimate stability and control derivatives within a Monte Carlo analysis. Based on the results, recommendations were provided for maximum allowable errors in sensor measurements, mass properties, and aircraft geometry to achieve desired levels of dynamic modeling accuracy. Results using other flight conditions, parameter estimation methods, and a full-scale F-16 nonlinear aircraft simulation were compared with these recommendations.

Grauer, Jared A.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Stress Recovery and Error Estimation for 3-D Shell Structures

The C1-continuous stress fields obtained from finite element analyses are in general lower- order accurate than are the corresponding displacement fields. Much effort has focussed on increasing their accuracy and/or their continuity, both for improved stress prediction and especially error estimation. A previous project developed a penalized, discrete least squares variational procedure that increases the accuracy and continuity of the stress field. The variational problem is solved by a post-processing, 'finite-element-type' analysis to recover a smooth, more accurate, C1-continuous stress field given the 'raw' finite element stresses. This analysis has been named the SEA/PDLS. The recovered stress field can be used in a posteriori error estimators, such as the Zienkiewicz-Zhu error estimator or equilibrium error estimators. The procedure was well-developed for the two-dimensional (plane) case involving low-order finite elements. It has been demonstrated that, if optimal finite element stresses are used for the post-processing, the recovered stress field is globally superconvergent. Extension of this work to three dimensional solids is straightforward. Attachment: Stress recovery and error estimation for shell structure (abstract only). A 4-node, shear-deformable flat shell element developed via explicit Kirchhoff constraints (abstract only). A novel four-node quadrilateral smoothing element for stress enhancement and error estimation (abstract only).

Riggs, H. R.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Error Estimation of An Ensemble Statistical Seasonal Precipitation Prediction Model

This NASA Technical Memorandum describes an optimal ensemble canonical correlation forecasting model for seasonal precipitation. Each individual forecast is based on the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) in the spectral spaces whose bases are empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The optimal weights in the ensemble forecasting crucially depend on the mean square error of each individual forecast. An estimate of the mean square error of a CCA prediction is made also using the spectral method. The error is decomposed onto EOFs of the predictand and decreases linearly according to the correlation between the predictor and predictand. Since new CCA scheme is derived for continuous fields of predictor and predictand, an area-factor is automatically included. Thus our model is an improvement of the spectral CCA scheme of Barnett and Preisendorfer. The improvements include (1) the use of area-factor, (2) the estimation of prediction error, and (3) the optimal ensemble of multiple forecasts. The new CCA model is applied to the seasonal forecasting of the United States (US) precipitation field. The predictor is the sea surface temperature (SST). The US Climate Prediction Center's reconstructed SST is used as the predictor's historical data. The US National Center for Environmental Prediction's optimally interpolated precipitation (1951-2000) is used as the predictand's historical data. Our forecast experiments show that the new ensemble canonical correlation scheme renders a reasonable forecasting skill. For example, when using September-October-November SST to predict the next season December-January-February precipitation, the spatial pattern correlation between the observed and predicted are positive in 46 years among the 50 years of experiments. The positive correlations are close to or greater than 0.4 in 29 years, which indicates excellent performance of the forecasting model. The forecasting skill can be further enhanced when several predictors are used.

Shen, Samuel S. P.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Gate Set Tomography

Gate set tomography (GST) is a protocol for detailed, predictive characterization of logic operations (gates) on quantum computing processors. Early versions of GST emerged around 2012-13, and since then it has been refined, demonstrated, and used in a large number of experiments. This paper presents the foundations of GST in comprehensive detail. The most important feature of GST, compared to older state and process tomography protocols, is that it is calibration-free . GST does not rely on pre-calibrated state preparations and measurements. Instead, it characterizes all the operations in a gate set simultaneously and self-consistently, relative to each other. Long sequence GST can estimate gates with very high precision and efficiency, achieving Heisenberg scaling in regimes of practical interest. In this paper, we cover GST's intellectual history, the techniques and experiments used to achieve its intended purpose, data analysis, gauge freedom and fixing, error bars, and the interpretation of gauge-fixed estimates of gate sets. Our focus is fundamental mathematical aspects of GST, rather than implementation details, but we touch on some of the foundational algorithmic tricks used in the pyGSTi implementation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1976

Performance analysis of digital FM demodulators for fading channels in the threshold region

The quasi-optimum digital FM demodulators for fading channels reported earlier (1975) reflected the system performance accurately under high signal to noise ratio conditions. In this paper, the prediction of the system performance for low SNR values is considered. A new set of error variance algorithms is developed from the filter algorithm assuming a Gaussian distribution for the state estimation errors and taking the effect of high frequency terms into consideration. Simulation analysis for an FM system with Rician fading channel shows that these algorithms predict the system performance accurately in the threshold region.

Dharamsi, M. T.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dedicated beam position monitor pair for model-independent lattice characterization at NSLS-II

This paper reports recent lattice characterization results obtained at the National Synchrotron Light Source II (NSLS-II) storage ring, conducted without reliance on a lattice model. A pair of beam position monitors (BPMs) with bunch-by-bunch (B$\times$B) resolution, were recently installed in a section of the storage ring free of magnetic fields. The new BPM pair measured the beam, or bunch’s transverse Poincaré map precisely after the beam was excited. Linear one-turn-matrices (OTM) were then derived, and from these, the 4-dimensional coupled Twiss parameters were extracted at the locations of the BPM pair. By normalizing beam oscillation amplitudes with the Twiss parameters, the global action-variables were obtained. Additionally, these action-variables facilitated the measurement of the local Twiss parameters observed by other BPMs independent on lattice model. This method is general, and particularly useful in certain scenarios such as a round beam mode in a diffraction-limited light source ring. We applied it to assess both weakly and strongly coupled lattices at the NSLS-II ring. Through analysis of the strongly coupled lattice, the quadrupole tilt errors were estimated to be less than 400 μrad. Utilizing the BPMs’ B$\times$B resolution, for the first time we observed the variations of the linear lattice along a long bunch-train.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Automated label flows for excited states of correlation functions in lattice gauge theory

Extracting excited states from lattice gauge theory correlation functions can be achieved through $χ^2$ minimization fits or algebraic approaches such as the variational method and Prony's method. Performing any kind of error analysis often leads to overlapping confidence regions of model parameters, even when the spectrum is not particularly dense. To correctly estimate errors, one must beware of mislabeling the states. In this work, we provide an algorithm that we call automated label flows which consistently and systematically identifies a deterministic labeling of states. This is a black-box approach in the sense that it gives a sensible set of labels without user guidance. Further, as an example, we pair one black box method with another, analyzing a lattice correlation function from real data using automated label flows in the context of Prony's method.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

A new upper bound for the growth factor in Gaussian elimination with complete pivoting

Abstract The growth factor in Gaussian elimination measures how large the entries of an LU factorization can be relative to the entries of the original matrix. It is a key parameter in error estimates, and one of the most fundamental topics in numerical analysis. We produce an upper bound of for the growth factor in Gaussian elimination with complete pivoting — the first improvement upon Wilkinson's original 1961 bound of .

Bisain, Ankit [Department of Mathematics Massachus↗

DOE OSTI2022

QGLab v0.0.1

A software program for experimenting with holographic teleportation protocol on quantum computers. The code implements the protocol that was proposed in https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.06314. The code is an end-to-end software solution that facilitates conducting the holographic teleportation experiments on state-of-the-art and emergent generations of QPUs supported by the Qiskit and tket SDKs. The code bundles all stages of an experiment as a single configurable workflow allowing faster development and experimentation cycles. Features: 1. Easy switching between Qiskit and tket quantum compilers. 2. Semi-automatic facilities for finding optimal compilation solutions beyond what Qiskit and tket provide by default. 3. Experiment resolution scaling (based on automatic jobs' batching). 4. Automatic experiment scaling over qubits. 5. Automatic readout error mitigation. 6. Automatic reproducibility analysis. 7. Standalone error-mitigation tools (randomized compiling, mitigation with estimation circuits, zero-noise extrapolation)

Shapoval, Illya↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dedicated beam position monitor pair for model-independent lattice characterization at NSLS-II

This paper reports recent lattice characterization results obtained at the National Synchrotron Light Source II (NSLS-II) storage ring, conducted without reliance on a lattice model. A pair of beam position monitors (BPMs) with bunch-by-bunch (B×B) resolution, were recently installed in a section of the storage ring free of magnetic fields. The new BPM pair measured the beam, or bunch’s transverse Poincar´e map precisely after the beam was excited. Linear one-turn-matrices (OTM) were then derived, and from these, the 4-dimensional coupled Twiss parameters were extracted at the locations of the BPM pair. By normalizing beam oscillation amplitudes with the Twiss parameters, the global action-variables were obtained. These action-variables facilitated the measurement of the local Twiss parameters observed by other BPMs independent on lattice model. This method is general, and particularly useful in certain scenarios such as a round beam mode in a diffraction-limited light source ring. We applied it to assess both weakly and strongly coupled lattices at the NSLS-II ring. Through analysis of the strongly coupled lattice, the quadrupole tilt errors were estimated to be less than 400 µrad. Utilizing the BPMs’ B×B resolution, for the first time we observed the variations of the linear lattice along a long bunch-train.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Deep nonparametric estimation of operators between infinite dimensional spaces

Learning operators between infinitely dimensional spaces is an important learning task arising in machine learning, imaging science, mathematical modeling and simulations, etc. This paper studies the nonparametric estimation of Lipschitz operators using deep neural networks. Non-asymptotic upper bounds are derived for the generalization error of the empirical risk minimizer over a properly chosen network class. Under the assumption that the target operator exhibits a low dimensional structure, our error bounds decay as the training sample size increases, with an attractive fast rate depending on the intrinsic dimension in our estimation. Our assumptions cover most scenarios in real applications and our results give rise to fast rates by exploiting low dimensional structures of data in operator estimation. We also investigate the influence of network structures (e.g., network width, depth, and sparsity) on the generalization error of the neural network estimator and propose a general suggestion on the choice of network structures to maximize the learning efficiency quantitatively.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1973

Potentialities of lunar laser ranging for measuring tectonic motions.

The lunar laser-ranging system at McDonald Observatory, Texas, is currently attaining accuracies of plus or minus 15 cm, and plus or minus 3 cm appears feasible. Numerical error analyses containing 97 parameters (35 of them for error sources) indicate that the plus or minus 3 cm system would measure station motions to plus or minus 1 cm/year accuracy within a year for east-west motions and within about 3 years for north-south. Furthermore, the correlations of station motions with other parameters are low, so that it is unlikely that the estimate is too optimistic because of modeling inadequacies of the error analysis.

Kaula, W. M.↗