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NASA NTRS2008

LISA Parameter Estimation using Numerical Merger Waveforms

Coalescing supermassive black holes are expected to provide the strongest sources for gravitational radiation detected by LISA. Recent advances in numerical relativity provide a detailed description of the waveforms of such signals. We present a preliminary study of LISA's sensitivity to waveform parameters using a hybrid numerical/analytic waveform describing the coalescence of two equal-mass, nonspinning black holes. The Synthetic LISA software package is used to simulate the instrument response and the Fisher information matrix method is used to estimate errors in the waveform parameters. Initial results indicate that inclusion of the merger signal can significantly improve the precision of some parameter estimates. For example, the median parameter errors for an ensemble of systems with total redshifted mass of 10(exp 6) deg M solar mass at a redshift of z is approximately 1 were found to decrease by a factor of slightly more than two when the merger was included.

Thorpe, J. I.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Dynamic Ensemble Prediction of Cognitive Performance in Space

Astronauts are exposed to a unique set of stressors in spaceflight. Microgravity, isolation, confinement, and environmental and operational hazards: all of these can impact sleep, vigilant attention, and alertness, which are critical to mission success. In this paper, we seek to understand the most important predictors of alertness over the course of a space mission, using self-reported, cognitive, and environmental data collected from 24 astronauts on 6-month missions to the International Space Station (ISS). Alertness was repeatedly and objectively assessed on the ISS with a brief 3-minute Psychomotor Vigilance Test (PVT) that is highly sensitive to sleep deprivation. To relate PVT performance to time-varying and sparsely-measured environmental, operational, and psychological covariates, we propose a n ensemble prediction model comprising of linear mixed effects regression, random forest, and functional concurrent regression models. An extensive cross-validation procedure reveals that this ensemble outperforms any one of its components alone. We also discover that a participant’s past performance, reported fatigue and stress, and temperature and radiation exposure were among the most important variables associated with alertness. This method is broadly applicable to environmental studies where the main goal is accurate, individualized prediction involving a mixture of person-level traits and irregularly measured time series.

Danni Tu↗

NASA NTRS1986

Simultaneous iterations algorithm for general eigenvalue problems on parallel processors

The method of simultaneous iteration with shift is extended to extraction of m-eigenpairs of a general eigenvalue problem of large order n in a parallel processing environment. The algorithm combines the power method and the Jacobi technique, and reduces to performing four basic operations. Parallel implementation of the algorithm is discussed in detail. The analysis accounts for computation and communication costs, and utilizes a parallel processing architecture of the ensemble type. Expressions for the computational efficiency and speedup are defined as a function of the problem and hardware parameters. Selected representative problems exhibit efficiencies ranging from 60 to 98 percent.

Utku, S.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Comparison of Histograms for Use in Cloud Observation and Modeling

Cloud observation and cloud modeling data can be presented in histograms for each characteristic to be measured. Combining information from single-cloud histograms yields a summary histogram. Summary histograms can be compared to each other to reach conclusions about the behavior of an ensemble of clouds in different places at different times or about the accuracy of a particular cloud model. As in any scientific comparison, it is necessary to decide whether any apparent differences are statistically significant. The usual methods of deciding statistical significance when comparing histograms do not apply in this case because they assume independent data. Thus, a new method is necessary. The proposed method uses the Euclidean distance metric and bootstrapping to calculate the significance level.

Green, Lisa↗

NASA NTRS2006

Radiative Forcing by Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases: Estimates from Climate Models in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)

The radiative effects from increased concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs) represent the most significant and best understood anthropogenic forcing of the climate system. The most comprehensive tools for simulating past and future climates influenced by WMGHGs are fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). Because of the importance of WMGHGs as forcing agents it is essential that AOGCMs compute the radiative forcing by these gases as accurately as possible. We present the results of a radiative transfer model intercomparison between the forcings computed by the radiative parameterizations of AOGCMs and by benchmark line-by-line (LBL) codes. The comparison is focused on forcing by CO2, CH4, N2O, CFC-11, CFC-12, and the increased H2O expected in warmer climates. The models included in the intercomparison include several LBL codes and most of the global models submitted to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). In general, the LBL models are in excellent agreement with each other. However, in many cases, there are substantial discrepancies among the AOGCMs and between the AOGCMs and LBL codes. In some cases this is because the AOGCMs neglect particular absorbers, in particular the near-infrared effects of CH4 and N2O, while in others it is due to the methods for modeling the radiative processes. The biases in the AOGCM forcings are generally largest at the surface level. We quantify these differences and discuss the implications for interpreting variations in forcing and response across the multimodel ensemble of AOGCM simulations assembled for the IPCC AR4.

Collins, W. D.↗

NASA NTRS2005

An Ensemble Approach to Building Mercer Kernels with Prior Information

This paper presents a new methodology for automatic knowledge driven data mining based on the theory of Mercer Kernels, which are highly nonlinear symmetric positive definite mappings from the original image space to a very high, possibly dimensional feature space. we describe a new method called Mixture Density Mercer Kernels to learn kernel function directly from data, rather than using pre-defined kernels. These data adaptive kernels can encode prior knowledge in the kernel using a Bayesian formulation, thus allowing for physical information to be encoded in the model. Specifically, we demonstrate the use of the algorithm in situations with extremely small samples of data. We compare the results with existing algorithms on data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and demonstrate the method's superior performance against standard methods. The code for these experiments has been generated with the AUTOBAYES tool, which automatically generates efficient and documented C/C++ code from abstract statistical model specifications. The core of the system is a schema library which contains templates for learning and knowledge discovery algorithms like different versions of EM, or numeric optimization methods like conjugate gradient methods. The template instantiation is supported by symbolic-algebraic computations, which allows AUTOBAYES to find closed-form solutions and, where possible, to integrate them into the code.

Srivastava, Ashok N.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Analysis of a Lunar Base Electrostatic Radiation Shield Concept

Space weather can be defined as the total ensemble of radiation in space, as well as on the surface of moons and asteroids. It consists of electromagnetic, charged-particle, and neutral particle radiation. The fundamental goal behind this NIAC Phase I research is to investigate methods of generating a static electric-field potential phi(x, y, z) in the volume above and around a "safe" or protected area on the lunar surface so that trajectories of harmful charged particle radiation are modified (deflected or reflected), thus creating a shadow over that region. Since the charged particles are not neutralized but merely redirected, there will be areas outside of the shadowed protected region that will have a higher flux concentration of radiation. One of the fundamental limitations of the static electric (electrostatic)-field approach to radiation shielding is that complete shadowing is accomplished only by complete reflection, which can only occur for shield voltages greater than or equal to the kinetic energy (in electron volts) of the incoming charged particles. Just as habitats on Earth are protected from severe weather events and conditions, such as extreme temperatures, high winds, and UV radiation, using multiple methods of shielding protection from severe space weather will undoubtedly require multiple strategies. The electrostatic shield concept may be one of many methods employed to protect astronaut habitats on the lunar surface from some of the harmful effects of space weather.

Buhler, Charles R.↗

NASA NTRS1996

GPS Monitor Station Upgrade Program at the Naval Research Laboratory

One of the measurements made by the Global Positioning System (GPS) monitor stations is to measure the continuous pseudo-range of all the passing GPS satellites. The pseudo-range contains GPS and monitor station clock errors as well as GPS satellite navigation errors. Currently the time at the GPS monitor station is obtained from the GPS constellation and has an inherent inaccuracy as a result. Improved timing accuracy at the GPS monitoring stations will improve GPS performance. The US Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) is developing hardware and software for the GPS monitor station upgrade program to improve the monitor station clock accuracy. This upgrade will allow a method independent of the GPS satellite constellation of measuring and correcting monitor station time to US Naval Observatory (USNO) time. THe hardware consists of a high performance atomic cesium frequency standard (CFS) and a computer which is used to ensemble the CFS with the two CFS's currently located at the monitor station by use of a dual-mixer system. The dual-mixer system achieves phase measurements between the high-performance CFS and the existing monitor station CFS's to within 400 femtoseconds. Time transfer between USNO and a given monitor station is achieved via a two way satellite time transfer modem. The computer at the monitor station disciplines the CFS based on a comparison of one pulse per second sent from the master site at USNO. The monitor station computer is also used to perform housekeeping functions, as well as recording the health status of all three CFS's. This information is sent to the USNO through the time transfer modem. Laboratory time synchronization results in the sub nanosecond range have been observed and the ability to maintain the monitor station CFS frequency to within 3.0 x 10 (sup minus 14) of the master site at USNO.

Galysh, Ivan J.↗

NASA NTRS1997

The Surface Heat Flux as a Function of Ground Cover for Climate Models

Surface heat fluxes were examined as a function of surface properties and meteorological conditions in a 100 km x 100 km grid square at 1-km spatial resolution centered at the location of the First ISLSCP (International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project) Field Experiment (FIFE), the Forest Ecosystem Dynamics site in central Maine, and a semiarid rangeland site around Walnut Gulch, Arizona. This investigation treats the surface heat flux variability within a GCM grid box to provide insight into methods for treating that variability in climate models. The heat fluxes were calculated using NOAA AVHRR and available meteorological data. The average heat fluxes that were estimated using the various area ground-cover representations were compared with the ensemble average heat fluxes for the entire area, which were assumed to be the best representation of the heat fluxes for the areas. Average beat fluxes were estimated for the entire 100 km x 100 km area based on a single ground-cover representation, and the mean error for the area sensible heat flux was about 10% and for the area latent heat flux, 21%. The estimation error was reduced, and in some cases significantly reduced, when the area heat fluxes were estimated by partitioning the area according to significant ground cover. The most significant effect of the partitioning was on the latent heat flux estimates.

Vukovich, Fred M.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Classifying Multi-Model Wheat Yield Impact Response Surfaces Showing Sensitivity to Temperature and Precipitation Change

Crop growth simulation models can differ greatly in their treatment of key processes and hence in their response to environmental conditions. Here, we used an ensemble of 26 process-based wheat models applied at sites across a European transect to compare their sensitivity to changes in temperature (minus 2 to plus 9 degrees Centigrade) and precipitation (minus 50 to plus 50 percent). Model results were analysed by plotting them as impact response surfaces (IRSs), classifying the IRS patterns of individual model simulations, describing these classes and analysing factors that may explain the major differences in model responses. The model ensemble was used to simulate yields of winter and spring wheat at four sites in Finland, Germany and Spain. Results were plotted as IRSs that show changes in yields relative to the baseline with respect to temperature and precipitation. IRSs of 30-year means and selected extreme years were classified using two approaches describing their pattern. The expert diagnostic approach (EDA) combines two aspects of IRS patterns: location of the maximum yield (nine classes) and strength of the yield response with respect to climate (four classes), resulting in a total of 36 combined classes defined using criteria pre-specified by experts. The statistical diagnostic approach (SDA) groups IRSs by comparing their pattern and magnitude, without attempting to interpret these features. It applies a hierarchical clustering method, grouping response patterns using a distance metric that combines the spatial correlation and Euclidian distance between IRS pairs. The two approaches were used to investigate whether different patterns of yield response could be related to different properties of the crop models, specifically their genealogy, calibration and process description. Although no single model property across a large model ensemble was found to explain the integrated yield response to temperature and precipitation perturbations, the application of the EDA and SDA approaches revealed their capability to distinguish: (i) stronger yield responses to precipitation for winter wheat than spring wheat; (ii) differing strengths of response to climate changes for years with anomalous weather conditions compared to period-average conditions; (iii) the influence of site conditions on yield patterns; (iv) similarities in IRS patterns among models with related genealogy; (v) similarities in IRS patterns for models with simpler process descriptions of root growth and water uptake compared to those with more complex descriptions; and (vi) a closer correspondence of IRS patterns in models using partitioning schemes to represent yield formation than in those using a harvest index. Such results can inform future crop modelling studies that seek to exploit the diversity of multi-model ensembles, by distinguishing ensemble members that span a wide range of responses as well as those that display implausible behaviour or strong mutual similarities.

Classification; Climate change; Crop model; Ensemb↗

NASA NTRS2021

Increases in Future AR Count and Size: Overview of 2 the ARTMIP Tier 2 CMIP5/6 Experiment

The Atmospheric River (AR) Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is a community effort to systematically assess how the uncertainties from AR detectors (ARDTs) impact our scientific understanding of ARs. This study describes the ARTMIP Tier 2 experimental design and initial results using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phases 5 and 6 multi-model ensembles. We show that AR statistics from a given ARDT in CMIP5/6 historical simulations compare remarkably well with the MERRA-2 reanalysis. In CMIP5/6 future simulations, most ARDTs project a global increase in AR frequency, counts, and sizes, especially along the western coastlines of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. We find that the choice of ARDT is the dominant contributor to the uncertainty in projected AR frequency when compared with model choice. These results imply that new projects investigating future changes in ARs should explicitly consider ARDT uncertainty as a core part of the experimental design. Plain Language Summary: Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are a type of weather pattern known to be important for moving water vapor from the warm, moist tropics to the cool, dry polar regions; when they reach midlatitudes in the winter time, they are commonly associated with heavy precipitation. Recent studies that assess the impacts of global climate change on ARs tend to agree that there will be more ARs in a warmer climate, and that ARs will tend to be more extreme. However, it has been increasingly recognized by the AR research community that these results may depend on the method used to identify ARs and the choice of climate model. This study reports results from a controlled experiment, involving an international research community, that aims to show how different AR identification methods and climate models might impact our scientific understanding of ARs in the future. This experiment shows that there will likely be more ARs in the future, and that ARs will generally have a larger spatial footprint. This experiment also shows that uncertainty in these results are large, with the uncertainty from AR identification methods outweighing that of climate models. Future efforts to better understand the physics of ARs may help us reduce this uncertainty.

T A OBrien↗

NASA NTRS1974

Statistical mechanics of 'negative temperature' states

Consideration of the dynamics of a two-dimensional guiding center plasma, recently shown by Taylor and McNamara (1971) to be identical to the dynamics of the discrete vortex model of Onsager (1949). A semirigorous application of the methods of equilibrium statistical mechanics to the guiding center plasma (or equivalently, the line vortex system) is presented. An adaptation of the apparatus of the theory of probability is attempted, in the form given by Khinchin (1949) to obtain ensemble-average predictions for the states of the guiding center plasma. Interest focuses primarily on the regime in which the interaction energy is high enough to be above the Onsager 'negative temperature' threshold.

Montgomery, D.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Analysis of surface tris (2,3-dibromopropyl) phosphate on chlorobutyl rubber SCAPE suits

Tris (2,30-dibromopropyl) phosphate was used to confer flame retardant properties on butyl rubber formulations used in protective clothing such as the self-contained atmospheric protective ensembles (SCAPE suits) worn at Kennedy Space Center in support of Apollo, Skylab, and Apollo-Soyuz missions since 1966. Because tris (2,3-dibromopropyl) phosphate is mutagenic, surface concentrations of the compound in SCAPE suits were investigated as were as potential methods of removing or isolating it. Analytical procedures for determining surface concentrations of the tris compound on non-porous materials are described. Soap-and-water washing is the most efficient method of removing the compound from fabricated SCAPE suits and unused material.

Schehl, T. A.↗

NASA NTRS1990

The application of optical potentials for reactive scattering - A case study

A precise method is presented for measuring decay fractions of metastable cluster ions with corrections concerning instrumental artifacts and ion trajectory of parents and daughters. Experimental data are used to derive the Gspann parameter and heat capacity of clusters as described in Klots' evaporative ensemble model. The model is applied to obtain binding energies of ammonia cluster ions. The deduced binding energy values are in very good agreement with both thermochemical data and Engelking's (1986) modified statistical theory.

Neuhauser, Daniel↗

NASA NTRS1997

Demonstration of Wavelet Techniques in the Spectral Analysis of Bypass Transition Data

A number of wavelet-based techniques for the analysis of experimental data are developed and illustrated. A multiscale analysis based on the Mexican hat wavelet is demonstrated as a tool for acquiring physical and quantitative information not obtainable by standard signal analysis methods. Experimental data for the analysis came from simultaneous hot-wire velocity traces in a bypass transition of the boundary layer on a heated flat plate. A pair of traces (two components of velocity) at one location was excerpted. A number of ensemble and conditional statistics related to dominant time scales for energy and momentum transport were calculated. The analysis revealed a lack of energy-dominant time scales inside turbulent spots but identified transport-dominant scales inside spots that account for the largest part of the Reynolds stress. Momentum transport was much more intermittent than were energetic fluctuations. This work is the first step in a continuing study of the spatial evolution of these scale-related statistics, the goal being to apply the multiscale analysis results to improve the modeling of transitional and turbulent industrial flows.

Lewalle, Jacques↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Variational Coupled Loads Analysis using the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method

Time-domain coupled loads analysis (CLA)is used to determine the response of a launch vehicle and payload system to transient forces, such as liftoff, engine ignitions and shutdowns, jettison events, and atmospheric flight loads, such as buffet. CLA, using Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB)component models, is the accepted method for the establishment of design-level loads for launch systems. However, uncertainty in the component models flows into uncertainty in predicted system results. Uncertainty in the structural responses during launch is a significant concern because small variations in launch vehicle and payload mode shapes and their interactions can result in significant variations in system loads. Uncertainty quantification (UQ)is used to determine statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. In this paper uncertainty is treated at the HCB component-model level. In an effort to account for model uncertainties and statistically bound their effect on CLA predictions, this work combines CLA with UQ in a process termed variational coupled loads analysis (VCLA). The modeling of uncertainty using a parametric approach, in which input parameters are represented by random variables, is common, but its major drawback is the resulting uncertainty is limited to the form of the nominal model. Uncertainty in model form is one of the biggest contributors to uncertainty in complex built-up structures. Model-form uncertainty can be represented using a nonparametric approach based on random matrix theory (RMT). In this work, UQ is performed using the hybrid parametric variation (HPV)method, which combines parametric with nonparametric uncertainty at the HCB component model level. The HPV method requires the selection of dispersion values for the HCB fixed-interface (FI)eigenvalues, and the HCB mass and stiffness matrices. The dispersions are based upon component test-analysis modal correlation results. During VCLA, random component models are assembled into an ensemble of random systems using a Monte Carlo (MC)approach. CLA is applied to each of the ensemble members to produce an ensemble of system-level responses for statistical analysis. The proposed methodology is demonstrated through its application to a buffet loads analysis of NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS)during the transonic regime fifty seconds after liftoff. Core stage (CS)section shears and moments are recovered, and statistics are computed.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

NASA NTRS1980

Scattering by ensembles of small particles experiment, theory and application

A hypothetical self consistent picture of evolution of prestellar intertellar dust through a comet phase leads to predictions about the composition of the circum-solar dust cloud. Scattering properties of thus resulting conglomerates with a bird's-nest type of structure are investigated using a micro-wave analogue technique. Approximate theoretical methods of general interest are developed which compared favorably with the experimental results. The principal features of scattering of visible radiation by zodiacal light particles are reasonably reproduced. A component which is suggestive of (ALPHA)-meteoroids is also predicted.

Gustafson, B. A. S.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Standard random number generation for MBASIC

A machine-independent algorithm is presented and analyzed for generating pseudorandom numbers suitable for the standard MBASIC system. The algorithm used is the polynomial congruential or linear recurrence modulo 2 method. Numbers, formed as nonoverlapping adjacent 28-bit words taken from the bit stream produced by the formula a sub m + 532 = a sub m + 37 + a sub m (modulo 2), do not repeat within the projected age of the solar system, show no ensemble correlation, exhibit uniform distribution of adjacent numbers up to 19 dimensions, and do not deviate from random runs-up and runs-down behavior.

Tausworthe, R. C.↗