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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13

Effect of Time Window and Spectral Measurement Options on Empirical Green’s Function Analysis Using DAS Array and Seismic Stations

The recorded seismic waveform is a convolution of event source term, path term, and station term. Removing high-frequency attenuation due to path effect is a challenging problem. Empirical Green’s function (EGF) method uses nearly collocated small earthquakes to correct the path and station terms for larger events recorded at the same station. However, this method is subject to variability due to many factors. Here, we focus on three events that were well recorded by the seismic network and a rapid response distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) array. Using a suite of high-quality EGF events, we assess the influence of time window, spectral measurement options, and types of data on the spectral ratio and relative source time function (RSTF) results. Increased number of tapers (from 2 to 16) tends to increase the measured corner frequency and reduce the source complexity. Extended long time window (e.g., 30 s) tends to produce larger variability of corner frequency. The multitaper algorithm that simultaneously optimizes both target and EGF spectra produces the most stable corner-frequency measurements. The stacked spectral ratio and RSTF from the DAS array are more stable than two nearby seismic stations, and are comparable to stacked results from the seismic network, suggesting that DAS array has strong potential in source characterization.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Mixed-Method Design Approach for Empirically Based Selection of Unbiased Data Annotators

Implicit bias embedded in the annotated data is by far the greatest impediment in the effectual use of supervised machine learning models in tasks involving race, ethics, and geopolitical polarization. For societal good and demonstrable positive impact on wider society, it is paramount to carefully select data annotators and rigorously validate the annotation process. Current approaches to selecting annotators are not sufficiently grounded in scientific principles and are limited at the policy-guidance level, thereby rendering them unusable for machine learning practitioners. This work proposes a new approach based on the mixed-methods design that is functional, adaptable, and simpler to implement in selecting unbiased annotators for any machine learning problem. By demonstrating it on a real-world geopolitical problem, we also identified and ranked key inane profile characteristics towards an empirically-based selection of unbiased data annotators.

Thakur, Gautam Malviya↗

pvOps: a Python package for empirical analysis of photovoltaic field data

The purpose of pvOps is to support empirical evaluations of data collected in the field related to the operations and maintenance (O&M) of photovoltaic (PV) power plants. pvOps presently contains modules that address the diversity of field data, including text-based maintenance logs, current-voltage (IV) curves, and timeseries of production information. The package functions leverage machine learning, visualization, and other techniques to enable cleaning, processing, and fusion of these datasets. These capabilities are intended to facilitate easier evaluation of field patterns and extraction of relevant insights to support reliability-related decision-making for PV sites. The open-source code, examples, and instructions for installing the package through PyPI can be accessed through the GitHub repository.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Empirical Validation of Multi-Zone HVAC System Model: Evaluation of Existing Infiltration Models used in Building Energy Simulation

Infiltration can have a significant impact on building loads. Studies have shown that infiltration can account for 15-40% of annual space conditioning needs in commercial buildings (Emmerich et al. 2019; Younes et al. 2012). The driving force of infiltration is the pressure difference across the building envelope caused by wind, the stack effect (known as buoyancy effect), and the operation of ventilation equipment. Wind pressure is governed by wind direction, speed, building shape, and other structures around the building. The stack effect is a function of the building height and air density differences of ambient air (Han, 2015). The effect of wind is dominant in low-rise residential buildings, and the stack effect is dominant in highrise buildings (ASHRAE 2017). In building energy simulation programs (e.g., EnergyPlus), various empirical infiltration models (e.g., the effective leakage area model, the flow coefficient model) are available to simulate infiltration rates. To help users in selecting a proper infiltration model for modeling of the two-story Flexible Research Platform (FRP), the team evaluates the existing infiltration models in EnergyPlus based on field measurements from the FRP. The blower door and tracer gas decay tests were performed in the FRP. The blower door test result was used to estimate input parameters required in the infiltration models. The actual infiltration rates were estimated with the tracer gas decay test results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Semi-Empirical Material Model for Hydrogen Uptake Kinetics by 1,4-bis(phenylethynyl)benzene (DEB)-based Getters

We report on development of a semi-empirical model describing the kinetics of H 2 /D 2 reaction with 1,4-bis(phenylethynyl)benzene (DEB)-based getters in pellet and powder form. The physical basis of the model is solid-state diffusion of DEB plus reaction of DEB with H atoms on the surface of nanometer-scale Pd catalyst particles. The purpose of this material model is to facilitate more accurate predictions of performance for DEB-based getter assemblies. These predictions will be accomplished by integrating the model presented here into finite element, reaction/diffusion simulations of getter assembly hydrogen uptake performance. As of Fall 2020, this integration is underway.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

EMPIRE Simulations of the July 2020 photoelectron driven cavity B-Dot experiments at the National Ignition Facility

Simulations of several of the end-irradiated cylindrical photoelectron driven cavity experiments (also known as B-Dot cavities) that were fielded during the July 1 through 2, 2020 shot series at the National Ignition Facility are presented in this report with comparisons to experimental measurements. All cavity B-Dots fielded on the second, third, fourth, fifth and seventh shots were simulated using coupled Integrated Tiger Series (ITS) Monte Carlo transport codes and the Electromagnetic Plasmas in Realistic Environments (EMPIRE) electromagnetic particle-in-cell code.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Non-Empirical and Self-Interaction Corrections for DFTB: Towards Accurate Quantum Simulations for Large Mesoscale Systems (Final Report)

This project was comprised of two complementary (but parallel) thrusts: (1) implementing massively-parallelized computing hardware (with new computational hardware that may replace GPUs) in the density functional tight binding (DFTB) approach and (2) developing new capabilities in DFTB to calculate the electronic structure and dynamics of large chemical systems. While classical molecular dynamics can handle hundreds of thousands of atoms, it cannot provide a first-principles based description of chemical systems at the quantum level. At the other extreme, conventional Kohn-Sham DFT methods can probe the true quantum mechanical nature of chemical systems; however, these methods cannot tackle the large sizes and length scales relevant to dynamics simulations of realistic systems. The DFTB formalism utilized in this project provides a viable approach for probing these large systems at a quantum mechanical level of detail. However, to utilize the DFTB approach for accurate calculations of electronic properties, it is crucial to incorporate quantum-based corrections in DFTB since exchange-correlation effects can still remain very strong in these large systems. At the same time, enhancing the computational efficiency of DFTB is also essential since optimal computational performance is required for addressing the large size scales associated with realistic chemical systems. As such, the new non-empirical corrections and computing hardware enhancements implemented in this project will enable accurate and computationally efficient approaches to directly probe electronic properties in these large, complex systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Empirical Performance Analysis of HPC Applications with Portable Hardware Counter Metrics [Thesis]

In this dissertation, we demonstrate that it is possible to develop methods of empirical hardware-counter-based performance analysis for scientific applications running on diverse types of CPUs. Although hardware counters have been used in performance analysis for at least 30 years, the methods used are still limited to particular CPU vendors or even particular generations of CPUs from the same vendor. Our motivating hypothesis is that hardware counter-based measurements could be developed to provide consistent performance information on diverse CPU types. This dissertation proves the hypothesis was correct by demonstrating one such set of metrics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

EMPIRE User Manual

This is the user manual for EMPIRE, a simulation code for electromagnetics and plasma physics.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Utility-Scale Solar, 2023 Edition: Empirical Trends in Deployment, Technology, Cost, Performance, PPA Pricing, and Value in the United States [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s “Utility-Scale Solar, 2023 Edition” presents analysis of empirical plant-level data from the U.S. fleet of ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV), PV+battery, and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants with capacities exceeding 5 MWAC (PV plants of 5 MWAC or less, including residential rooftop systems, are covered separately in Berkeley Lab’s companion annual report, Tracking the Sun). Highlights of this year’s update include: -10.4 GWAC of new utility-scale PV capacity came online in 2022, bringing cumulative installed capacity to more than 61.7 GWAC across 46 states. -94% of all new utility-scale PV capacity added in 2022 uses single-axis tracking. -Median installed project costs declined to $\$1.32$/WAC (or $\$1.07$/WDC) in 2022. -Plant-level capacity factors vary widely, from 9% to 35% (on an AC basis), with a sample median of 24%. The report explores drivers of this variation. -Utility-scale PV’s LCOE fell to $\$39$/MWh in 2022 ($\$29$/MWh if factoring in the federal investment tax credit, or ITC). -PPA prices have largely followed the decline in solar’s LCOE over time, but have recently stagnated and even moved slightly higher. Prices from a sample of recent contracts average around $\$20-30$/MWh (levelized) in the West and $\$30-40$/MWh elsewhere in the continental US. -In 2022, solar’s average market value (defined in the report to include only energy and capacity value) rose by 40% to $\$71$/MWh and exceeded average wholesale prices in 4 of the 7 ISOs/RTOs and 11 of 18 other balancing authorities analyzed. -Adding battery storage is one way to increase the value of solar. Our public data file tracks metadata and PPA prices from ~100 PV+battery hybrid projects that are already online or that have secured offtake arrangements. -the end of 2022, there were at least 947 GW of utility-scale solar power capacity within the interconnection queues across the nation, 456 GW of which include batteries. For more information, and to explore related interactive data visualizations, go to utilityscalesolar.lbl.gov.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Compare Mechanistic Predictions for Doped UO 2 Mechanical Response and Other Properties with Empirical Models and Experimental Measurements

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program develops predictive capabilities using computational methods for the analysis and design of advanced reactor and fuel cycle systems. This program has been supporting the development of BISON, a high-fidelity, high resolution fuel performance tool at the engineering scale. As part of its development, additional modeling capabilities and improvements have been developed for relevant fuel forms. In this work, a fuel creep deformation model for Cr-doped fuel has been implemented into BISON, along with improvements to the empirical UO 2 fuel creep model based on experimental data and improvements to the radial power factor calculation for doped fuels. This work allows for more accurate simulation analyses for both UO 2 and doped-UO 2 fuels.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Evaluation of Mechanistic and Empirical Models against Existing FFRD and LOCA Experimental Databases

The desire of the nuclear industry to improve the economics of existing nuclear power plants has necessitated research into the potential of a phenomenon known as fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD). This phenomenon is possible during a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) at relatively high burnup. The Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program has been developing simulation capabilities for FFRD and LOCA in the BISON fuel performance code for multiple years. This year, the effort has been focused on evaluating new lower length scale informed pulverization thresholds as well as updating and adding new empirical models for various phenomena. Models added or updated this year include a preliminary transient fission gas release model, new high-temperature Zircaloy creep models, a Zircaloy rupture opening area model, and a temperature-dependent emissivity during radiation from the fuel rod to the surrounding atmosphere. The models are verified through implementation tests to demonstrate code correctness after addition to BISON. The models are then assessed against a subset of the existing BISON validation suite for LOCA and FFRD cases. Two new cases, Studsvik Rods 192 and 193, have been added. The results indicate that the inclusion of a bubble pressure evolution model in the bubbles in the high-burnup structure has the largest impact compared to the 3D fracture criterion on reducing the calculated amount of pulverized fuel.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

MRT 7365 Power flow physics and key physics phenomena: EMPIRE verification suite

This milestone work baselines electromagnetic particle-in-cell capability of the EMPIRE plasma simulation code to model key processes germane to the physics of electrode plasmas arising in magnetically-insulated transmission lines operating at or near 20 MA. This evaluation is done so through the provision of benchmark verification problems designed to exercise the individual and combined physics models on a small-scale surrogate geometry for the final-feed-to-load region of the Z accelerator under representative operating conditions. In this report, we overview our test designs, and present a portfolio of simulation results along with performance assessments which altogether establish state-of-the-art. In particular, two main verification categories are covered this report: (1) Z-relevant desorption physics (Temkin isotherm), and (2) two approaches to simulate electrode plasma creation and dynamics (automatic creation versus self-consistent creation through direct simulation Monte Carlo collisions).

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Utility-Scale Solar, 2024 Edition: Empirical Trends in Deployment, Technology, Cost, Performance, PPA Pricing, and Value in the United States [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s “Utility-Scale Solar, 2024 Edition” presents analysis of empirical plant-level data from the U.S. fleet of ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV), PV+battery, and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants with capacities exceeding 5 MWAC (PV plants of 5 MWAC or less, including residential rooftop systems, are covered separately in Berkeley Lab’s companion annual report, Tracking the Sun). Key findings from this year’s report include: -18.5 GWAC of new utility-scale PV capacity came online in 2023, bringing cumulative installed capacity to more than 80.2 GWAC across 47 states. Installed costs continued to fall in 2023. Relative to 2022, capacity-weighted averages decreased by 8% to -$\$1.43$/WAC (or $\$1.08$/WDC). Costs, based on a 7.1 GWAC sample of 76 plants completed in 2023, have fallen by 75% (averaging 10% annually) since 2010. Plant-level capacity factors vary widely, from 6% to 36% (on an AC basis), with a sample median of 24%. -Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of new 2023 projects increased slightly to $\$46$/MWh prior to the application of tax credits but continued to fall to $\$31$/MWh when accounting for federal incentives. PPA prices have largely followed the decline in solar’s LCOE over time, but newly signed longer-term PPA prices have increased since 2021, to an average of $\$35$/MWh (levelized, in 2023 dollars). -Solar’s average energy and capacity value (i.e., ability to offset costs of other power generation sources) across the U.S. was $\$45$/MWh in 2023. Solar’s average market value was lowest in CAISO ($\$27$/MWh), the market with the greatest solar generation share, and highest in ERCOT ($\$67$/MWh). -Newer solar projects had greater market value in 2023 than their generation costs, yielding $\$1.1$ billion in benefits. Projects built in 2022 delivered on average $\$15$/MWh more market value than their costs in 2023. -Solar’s combined value from wholesale electricity markets, public health and climate damage reduction were greater than generation costs and incentives, yielding $\$13.7$ billion in net benefits in 2023. We estimate U.S. health benefits of $\$24$/MWh and reduced global climate damages of $\$101$/MWh. -Adding battery storage is one way to increase the value of solar. Deployment of 52 new PV+battery hybrid plants set a record with 5.3 GW installed in 2023. Our public data file tracks metadata and PPA prices from more than 100 PV+battery hybrid projects that are already online or that have secured offtake arrangements. -Looking ahead, a massive pipeline of at least 1,085 GW of solar capacity dominates the nation’s interconnection queues at the end of 2023. Nearly 571 GW, or 53%, of that total was paired with a battery – in CAISO it was a staggering 98%. Historically only 10% of the requested solar capacity is built. -For more information, and to explore related interactive data visualizations, go to utilityscalesolar.lbl.gov.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Empirical Assessment of Interregional Coordination to Support Resource Adequacy [Slides]

This study examines where interregional transmission could most effectively support resource adequacy in the contiguous United States. We use hourly load, renewable generation, and real-time price data from 2016–2023 for 18 planning subregions to identify periods of elevated adequacy risk, defined as the top 100 annual hours of net load and wholesale prices in each region. We then measure the temporal coincidence of these peak periods between adjacent regions and compare price patterns to assess the potential for capacity sharing. Results show that NorthernGrid West, a winter-peaking region, has low coincidence of peak net load with its summer-peaking neighbors, indicating high potential for interregional support. In contrast, regions in the Northeast have highly coincident peak periods, suggesting limited adequacy benefits from additional transmission. Price-based analysis shows peak-hour differences in the Midwest and between ERCOT and neighboring regions, indicating potential economic benefits from increased transfers. The findings provide an empirical screening of where transmission may offer the greatest reliability benefits without adding new generation capacity.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Identifying Barriers to Solar and Storage Hybrids: Modeled vs. empirical wholesale market value and net-value for co-located solar + storage projects [Slides]

Large-scale (1MW+) co-located solar and battery storage projects are expanding rapidly in the United States, but their realized contribution to the bulk power system remains poorly understood because public project-level operating data are limited. The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory estimates the wholesale market value of 280 operational photovoltaic-plus-storage (PV+S) projects across the seven ISOs/RTOs and 19 additional balancing authorities, representing roughly 95% of the U.S. PV+S fleet in 2024. We model optimized hourly dispatch under energy, capacity, and ancillary-service market opportunities and compare the resulting value with standalone PV value, project-specific levelized cost estimates, and empirical operating or revenue data where available.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗