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DOE OSTI2024

Herbicide‐resistant weed management with robots: A weed ecological–economic model

The heavy reliance on herbicides for weed control has led to an increase in resistant weeds in the United States. Robotic weed control is emerging as an alternative technology for removing weeds mechanically using artificial intelligence. We develop an integrated weed ecological and economic dynamic (I‐WEED) model to examine the biophysical and economic drivers of adopting robotic weed management and simulate the optimal timing and intensity of robotic adoption within and across growing seasons. We specify a cohort‐based weed growth model that relates yield damages to effective weed density and treats the susceptibility of weeds to herbicides as a renewable resource that can be regenerated by using mechanical weeding robots, due to a fitness cost that makes resistant weeds less prolific. Compared to myopic weed management which ignores resistance development, forward‐looking management leads to earlier adoption of robots and treating robots as complements instead of substitutes to herbicides. This weed management results in adopting fewer robots, deploying robots on a smaller portion of the land, higher profitability, and lower yield loss in the long run, relative to myopic management. Counterintuitively, myopic management leads to a lower resistance level through its higher robot adoption intensity. We also find that a lower level of initial weed seed resistance and/or a higher fitness cost result in a higher level of resistance because they create incentives for farmers to delay the adoption of robotic weed control. Our analysis shows the importance of jointly considering the interactions between weed ecology and economics in analyzing the incentives and effects of robotic weed management on weed resistance.

agricultural robotics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Techno‐economic feasibility analysis of engineered energycane‐based biorefinery co‐producing biodiesel and ethanol

Abstract High feedstock cost and low oil yields per unit of land from temperate oilseed crops limit the growth of commercial‐scale biodiesel production. Recently, highly productive crops, such as sugarcane and energycane, have been engineered to accumulate triacylglycerides (TAGs) that allow the production of far more industrial vegetable oil than previously possible. A proof‐of‐concept suggests that biodiesel production from engineered energycane will be possible. However, before making efforts for scale‐up, it is critical to understand the commercial feasibility and economic competitiveness of this process. This study performs techno‐economic analysis of a unique biorefinery processing energycane to co‐produce biodiesel and ethanol. Comprehensive process simulation models were developed for two scenarios: (i) biodiesel from TAGs and ethanol from fermentation of sugars in juice and (ii) biodiesel from TAGs and ethanol from fermentation of sugars in juice and hydrolysis of carbohydrates in bagasse. Based on the target levels, the analysis was performed for energycane containing 0%, 5%, and 7.7% TAGs (d.b.). The biodiesel from engineered energycane was found economically viable and competitive to soybean biodiesel. Although the capital investment is higher compared to the soybean biodiesel plant, the biodiesel production costs ($0.66–$0.9/L) were lower than soybean biodiesel ($0.91/L). Biorefinery‐scenario‐1 processing energycane containing 7.7% TAG produces biodiesel with profitability (IRR 7.84) slightly lower than soybean biodiesel (IRR 8.3), but yields five times of biodiesel per unit land and is self‐sustainable for energy requirements. The surplus electricity can displace fossil electricity and provide environmental benefits. Monte Carlo simulation indicated that biorefinery is profitable with a 29%–65% probability (NPV > 0) which is largely controlled by feedstock composition and biodiesel market price. It is important to note that energycane can be grown on the marginal rainfed lands in S.E. USA, where soybean would not be viable. Biodiesel from engineered energycane would therefore be complementary to soydiesel in the United States.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Techno-Economic Impact Assessments of Energy Efficiency Improvements in the Industrial Combustion Systems

Industrial energy efficiency assessments not only provide benefits to manufacturers but also generate significant economic and environmental benefits to localities, states, and the nation through indirect and induced benefits. Quantifying these benefits requires a systematic economic framework for capturing these interactions. This article employs methodologies for improving the energy efficiency of small- and medium-sized industry through their combustion systems. Combustion systems offer large opportunities to enhance energy efficiency through adopting advanced technologies and better-informed operations. The case studies presented illuminate the potential savings and impacts from implementing energy-efficient combustion recommendations and the importance of energy audits and energy efficiency in the fight against climate change. This study describes and quantifies the cascading economic and environmental impacts of implementing the industrial energy efficiency recommendations offered by an energy auditing program by participating facilities over a 10-year period. Results showed that it is expected that a total of $185 M would be saved in energy costs, and 2.3 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions would be avoided annually, and about 972 jobs could be created in the studied region if all the combustion recommendations would be implemented. Furthermore, the broader view afforded by the proposed study can be used to support better energy-efficient practices in manufacturing facilities, communities, and states.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Techno-Economic Analysis for the Addition of a Thermal Energy Storage System to a Central Plant

Increasing energy demand and rising peak loads present significant challenges for energy management in commercial and institutional settings. As climate change drives greater cooling needs, central plants must navigate the complex tradeoffs between operational efficiency, cost control, and grid stability. Thermal energy storage (TES) systems offer a viable solution by shifting energy consumption from peak to off-peak periods, thereby reducing peak demand, lowering utility expenses, and improving grid resilience. However, the success of TES implementation hinges on appropriate system sizing, effective control strategies, and alignment with local utility rate structures. This article presents a techno-economic analysis of integrating a chilled water TES system into the central plant at California State University, Dominguez Hills. Drawing on historical load profiles and utility tariffs, we assess three TES sizing approaches and their corresponding control strategies from both energy and economic perspectives. This article utilizes a model-based approach to assess the impact of TES sizing and control strategies on the techno-economic feasibility of integrating TES into an existing central plant. The models employed for this analysis were calibrated using 4 years of historical data. Here, the results demonstrated that utility tariffs and the campus's operational profiles dictate the most feasible sizing and control methods. The findings offer valuable insights for institutions and commercial building managers exploring sustainable energy solutions. By demonstrating how optimized TES strategies can improve operational efficiency while achieving financial savings, this study highlights the potential for TES to align performance with cost effectiveness in real-world applications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Visualization of Multi-Fidelity Approximations of Stochastic Economic Dispatch

As renewable energy generation deployment increases, the operation of electrical grids becomes more complex. Economic dispatch is part of a grid operator's regular decision process where the amount of energy to generate is determined based on the number of available generators and the actual level of energy demand. Renewable generators are inherently stochastic due to the chaotic nature of weather patterns, and thus, real-time decisions of economic dispatch become increasingly complex. Modeling efforts to assist in these decisions in the highest fidelity typically take hours to days to solve on leadership-class computers; too long for the 5-minute operational time-frame demanded of operators. Alternatively, multi-fidelity approximations can be used to predict generation levels quickly and with sufficient accuracy to be used for real-time operations. We have developed a visualization tool to demonstrate the utility of multi-fidelity approximations by displaying contextual results of economic dispatch approximations, comparisons across fidelity levels of generation levels and possible failures to meet demand, and meta-data on the modeling setup.

interactive visualization↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Global Technical, Economic, and Feasible Potential of Renewable Electricity

Renewable electricity generation will need to be rapidly scaled to address climate change and other environmental challenges. Doing so effectively will require an understanding of resource availability. We review estimates for renewable electricity of the global technical potential, defined as the amount of electricity that could be produced with current technologies when accounting for geographical and technical limitations as well as conversion efficiencies; economic potential, which also includes cost; and feasible potential, which accounts for societal and environmental constraints. We consider utility-scale and rooftop solar photovoltaics, concentrated solar power, onshore and offshore wind, hydropower, geothermal electricity, and ocean (wave, tidal, ocean thermal energy conversion, and salinity gradient energy) technologies. We find that the reported technical potential for each energy resource ranges over several orders of magnitude across and often within technologies. Therefore, we also discuss the main factors explaining why authors find such different results. According to this review and on the basis of the most robust studies, we find that technical potentials for utility-scale solar photovoltaic, concentrated solar power, onshore wind, and offshore wind are above 100 PWh/year. Hydropower, geothermal electricity, and ocean thermal energy conversion have technical potentials above 10 PWh/year. Rooftop solar photovoltaic, wave, and tidal have technical potentials above 1 PWh/year. Salinity gradient has a technical potential above 0.1 PWh/year. The literature assessing the global economic potential of renewables, which considers the cost of each renewable resource, shows that the economic potential is higher than current and near-future electricity demand. Fewer studies have calculated the global feasible potential, which considers societal and environmental constraints. While these ranges are useful for assessing the magnitude of available energy sources, they may omit challenges for large-scale renewable portfolios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Economic Valuation of Coccidioidomycosis (Valley Fever) Projections in the United States in Response to Climate Change

Coccidioidomycosis, or valley fever, is an infectious fungal disease currently endemic to the southwestern United States. Symptoms of valley fever range in severity from flu-like illness to severe morbidity and mortality. Warming temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns may cause the area of endemicity to expand northward throughout the western United States, putting more people at risk for contracting valley fever. This may increase the health and economic burdens from this disease. We developed an approach to describe the relationship between climate conditions and valley fever incidence using historical data and generated projections of future incidence in response to both climate change and population trends using the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) framework developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. We also developed a method to estimate economic impacts of valley fever that is based on case counts. For our 2000–15 baseline time period, we estimated annual medical costs, lost income, and economic welfare losses for valley fever in the United States were 400,000 USD per case, and the annual average total cost was 3.9 billion USD per year. For a high greenhouse gas emission scenario and accounting for population growth, we found that total annual costs for valley fever may increase up to 164% by year 2050 and up to 380% by 2090. By the end of the twenty-first century, valley fever may cost 620,000 USD per case and the annual average total cost may reach $18.5 billion per year. This work contributes to the broader effort to monetize climate change–attributable damages in the United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Chapter 6: Recycling Plastic Waste to Produce Chemicals - A Techno-Economic Analysis and Life-Cycle Assessment

This study presents the results of a preliminary assessment on the technology, economics, and sustainability of using waste plastics as a feedstock to produce low molecular weight olefins via pyrolysis and gasification pathways. We also studied the formation of formaldehyde - an important polymer precursor - via the gasification of waste plastics. Process pathways for recovery of ethylene and propylene and production of formaldehyde from a simulated mixed plastic waste were constructed based on literature data. They included direct and indirect pathways based on either gasification or pyrolysis as the primary conversion step. Results of these studies have shown that significant economic challenges exist of producing olefins via pyrolysis and gasification, with the latter pathway especially difficult. Base costs of pyrolysis naphtha from waste plastics are higher when compared to the same material produced from fossil feedstocks. Base olefin costs for one direct route are two times higher than comparable costs from steam cracking of fossil naphtha. These costs are driven primarily by feedstock costs; some pyrolysis scenarios become more economically feasible when very low feedstock costs are used. Similarly, for gasification, the cost of methanol - the central intermediate - was found to be noticeable higher when produced by gasification of waste plastics compared to current selling prices, which negatively impacts all pathways that go through methanol as the central intermediate. Life-cycle assessment indicates that the production of pyrolysis naphtha from plastics is a carbon intensive operation; no major advantages were found in terms of greenhouse gas emissions for any of the pathways producing C2 and C3 olefins. The results of this study can serve as the baseline for future comparison to other plastic waste valorization processes.

BIOMASS FUELS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data from Technical and Economic Feasibility of an Integrated Ethanol and Anthocyanin Coproduction Process Using Purple Corn Stover

The coproduction of high-value anthocyanin extract in the cellulosic ethanol process would diversify the co-product market, increase revenue, and potentially improve the economics of the process. The high anthocyanin concentration in the cob and structural carbohydrates in residual stover make purple corn stover an attractive source for anthocyanin and ethanol coproduction. This study aimed to develop simulation models for processes integrating ethanol production and anthocyanin extraction using purple corn stover, to evaluate their techno-economic feasibility, and to compare their performance with the conventional ethanol production process using corn stover. The annual ethanol production for plants processing 2000 MT dry feedstock / day was 148.6 million L/year for the integrated processes compared with 222.6 million L/year for the conventional process. Anthocyanin production in the modified processes using dilute acid-based and water-based anthocyanin extraction processes was 1779 and 1099 MT/year, respectively. Capital investments for the integrated processes ($448.1 to $443.8 million) were higher than the conventional process ($371.9 million). Due to high revenue from anthocyanin extract, the ethanol production cost for the integrated process using acid-based anthocyanin extraction ($0.36/L) was 34.5% lower than conventional ethanol production ($0.55/L). The ethanol production cost for the integrated process using water-based anthocyanin extraction ($0.68/L) was higher than conventional ethanol production due to low ethanol and anthocyanin yields. The minimum ethanol selling price for the integrated process using acid-based anthocyanin extraction ($0.65/L) was also lower than the conventional process ($0.72/L), indicating an improvement in economic performance.

Conversion↗

DOE OSTI2023

FY22 Economic Impact Summary

In 2022, Idaho National Laboratory was one of the state’s top employers (sixth overall). INL directly employed a total of 5,460 positions, a 4% growth from the previous year. The large growth of Idaho’s economy between 2021 and 2022 means INL’s economic impact on the state has also deepened. Dollars that INL has brought into the state tend to stay and circulate longer, facilitating increased impacts and growth rates for the state. INL, along with the other 16 national labs housed under the Department of Energy (DOE), perform research focused on: nuclear energy, integrated energy systems (such Summary Results as microgrid, battery and environmental research), and national security. This study evaluates the economic activity of INL within the economy of Idaho. This study estimates the total economic impact generated by INL apart from any other DOE or Department of Defense operations within the state. Total operational impacts of INL in 2022 amounted to $\$ $3.38 billion in output, $\$ $2.42 billion in gross state product (GSP), and 16,445 jobs throughout Idaho.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2024

DERiving Community Economic Development through Distributed Solar

This report explores how distributed solar stakeholders can plan and align economic development with existing community priorities while advancing new solar projects. Because the amount of local community influence drives community economic development, we note the need for investment in community ownership models, which are scarce today. This report seeks to outline the current barriers to community-led economic development through distributed solar, best practices for implementation, and recommendations for sector stakeholders.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

DERiving Community Economic Development through Distributed Solar

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Microwave-Assisted Dehydroaromatization of Flare Gas: Reactor Modeling, Plant-Wide Simulation and Economic Feasibility Analysis

Flaring is widely practiced in the oil, gas, and petrochemical sectors to ensure safety during upsets and maintenance but emits large amounts of GHGs, causing energy and economic losses. In the U.S., about one-third of Bakken gas (~250 MMSCFD) and ~100 MMSCFD from Eagle Ford are flared. Recovering this gas is essential for sustainability. Existing recovery methods—compression and reinjection (EOR), conversion to NGL, LNG/CNG, GTL, and GTW—are often limited by flowrate, composition, and variability, especially in unconventional wells. This study develops a microwave-assisted dehydroaromatization (DHA) process to convert flare gas into benzene, toluene, ethylene, and naphthalene. A laboratory reactor model is scaled up into a modular plant-wide system. Techno-economic (TEA) and life-cycle (LCA) analyses evaluate performance and sustainability, with sensitivity studies on plant capacity, electricity cost, and catalyst price confirming strong economic potential.

dehydroaromatization↗

DOE OSTI2022

Viable Economic Frameworks and Regulatory Barriers for Community Microgrids

Community microgrids – microgrids with more than one piece of customer- and utility-owned distribution equipment contained in the isolation boundary – are an option for providing resilience to meet targeted community and utility needs. Because multiple investors, including customers, are involved there is a lack of clarity around viable ownership models, roles and responsibilities, and compensation mechanisms. Together, these aspects describe an economic framework. To be viable, an economic framework not only needs to provide the possibility of all parties agreeing to the microgrid but also needs to meet regulatory guidelines. This report contains learnings from present-day community microgrid tariffs and programs, regulatory filings, and experiences shared within an interest group to highlight regulatory barriers to community microgrids and identify several viable economic frameworks for community microgrids.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Modeling the PV System Level Economic Impact of PV Connector Failure Modes

Photovoltaic (PV) connectors must maintain mechanical integrity for over 25 years while operating under UV exposure, elevated temperature, and mechanical loading. Connector degradation increases with electrical resistance, leading to energy losses, unplanned downtime, and higher operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and in severe cases, safety risks from overhearing or arcing. Connector related failures remain among the most frequent causes of disruption in utility-scale PV (UPV) systems, yet their lifetime economic impacts are poorly quantified. This work presents a techno-economic analysis (TEA) framework that links identified connector failure modes to system level energy losses and lifetime cost impacts using identified resistance measurements and failure rates from 6,2761 PV connectors inspected. Connector failures increase system level O&M costs, raising LCOE by roughly 5%. Downtime driven availability losses dominate economic impact. Resistance-driven I2R and IV-curve losses are secondary, but remain non-negligible. Thermal damage, bend-radius violations, and loose connections drive the majority of LCOE uplift Improving connector reliability through better installation quality, inspection, and design can meaningfully reduce lost energy, O&M costs, and LCOE.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Considerations for Maritime Nuclear Technologies, Economic Viability and Public Acceptance

The Maritime Nuclear Application Group (MNAG) is a working group convened by the National Reactor Innovation Center at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), the American Bureau of Shipping, and Morgan, Lewis, and Bockius LLP. This report documents an MNAG examination of considerations relevant to implementing nuclear technology in commercial maritime applications. In general, two types of use case are examined: maritime nuclear power plants and nuclear reactors used on board shipping vessels for propulsion and other ship needs. The report finds that there may be economic benefits related to maritime nuclear technologies, including the flexible deployment of maritime nuclear reactors, which would allow them to complement land-based nuclear projects, and operational differences for nuclear cargo ships that may lead to an overall increase in revenue. High-level analyses in this report show that, based on general small modular reactor and microreactor cost estimates developed by INL, maritime nuclear reactors may be economically competitive for electricity production in remote regions and for use in the propulsion of large cargo ships. Besides economic viability, public acceptance will be key to implementing maritime nuclear technologies. The report discusses the public’s current perception of nuclear technologies. Engaging with the public will be important to improving this perception. The report discusses some key benefits and risks associated with maritime nuclear technologies. Benefits include the creation of jobs, the production of reliable energy, and the potential to improve air quality. Risks that concern the public are the potential for radioactive releases during operation and decommissioning, as well as those related to waste management. Communicating the benefits and the risks of maritime nuclear technologies will be essential to improving public perception.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

H2@Scale Hydrogen Economic Potential Supply and Demand Locations

This data release provides estimates of hydrogens economic potential for possible hydrogen applications and production technologies by geographic location for various scenarios, as described in "The Technical and Economic Potential of the H2@Scale Concept within the United States". We define the economic potential as the quantity of hydrogen at an equilibrium price at which suppliers are willing to sell and consumers are willing to buy the same quantity of hydrogen.

alternative energy↗

DOE OSTI2022

Adapting Technology Learning Curves for Prospective Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Assessments of Emerging Carbon Capture and Utilization Pathways

Comparisons of emerging carbon capture and utilization (CCU) technologies with equivalent incumbent technologies are necessary to support technology developers and to help policy-makers design appropriate long-term incentives to mitigate climate change through the deployment of CCU. In particular, early-stage CCU technologies must prove their economic viability and environmental reduction potential compared to already-deployed technologies. These comparisons can be misleading, as emerging technologies typically experience a drastic increase in performance and decrease in cost and greenhouse gas emissions as they develop from research to mass-market deployment due to various forms of learning. These changes complicate the interpretation of early techno-economic assessments (TEAs) and life cycle assessments (LCAs) of emerging CCU technologies. The effects of learning over time or cumulative production themselves can be quantitatively described using technology learning curves (TLCs). While learning curve approaches have been developed for various technologies, a harmonized methodology for using TLCs in TEA and LCA for CCU in particular is required. To address this, we describe a methodology that incorporates TLCs into TEA and LCA to forecast the environmental and economic performance of emerging CCU technologies. This methodology is based on both an evaluation of the state of the art of learning curve assessment and a literature review of TLC approaches developed in various manufacturing and energy generation sectors. Additionally, we demonstrate how to implement this methodology using a case study on a CO 2 mineralization pathway. Finally, commentary is provided on how researchers, technology developers, and LCA and TEA practitioners can advance the use of TLCs to allow for consistent, high-resolution modeling of technological learning for CCU going forward and enable holistic assessments and fairer comparisons with other climate technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗