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At least 235 records · Page 13

High-fidelity micromechanical modeling of the effects of defects on damage and creep behavior in single tow ceramic matrix composite

Despite the superior properties of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs), their fabrication process generates inevitable defects with high density that significantly influence material integrity and residual useful life. Recent efforts have focused on CMC property prediction and investigation of their different inelastic mechanisms, but very limited work exists on understanding the influence of defects on inelastic responses of CMCs. Here, we introduce a three-dimensional micromechanics computational framework that includes experimentally informed material microstructure and architectural variabilities to investigate CMC response in the presence of manufacturing-induced defects. A developed microstructure generation algorithm is used to generate the representative volume elements in the micromechanics models from complex material morphology information obtained from extensive characterization studies of C/SiNC and SiC/SiNC CMCs. A fracture mechanics-informed matrix damage model is reformulated, in which the model considers the growth of porosity and microcracks in the as-received material. A progressive fiber damage model as well as Orthotropic viscoplasticity creep formulation are also utilized for the study. This methodology is implemented within the micromechanics framework to investigate the complex temperature- and time-dependent load transfer and damage mechanisms of CMCs under operation loading conditions. The developed framework explores the influence of as-received defects on the damage and creep behavior in service conditions. It also provides new insights into the effect of size, shape, distribution, and location of these defects on material response. The framework is then calibrated with unidirectional CMC minicomposite results available in the literature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Measurements and Prediction of Ash Deposition in a Cyclone-Fired Boiler Operating under Variable Load Conditions

Measurements of ash deposition rates were made between the secondary superheater and reheater sections of a 450 MW cyclone-fired lignite boiler as the operational load varied from 33 to 100%. Significant reductions in deposition rates with a decrease in operational load were observed. To uncover the causative mechanisms behind these observations, operational data from the power plant were used to carry out computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations of the boiler. After ascertaining that the gas temperatures and velocities at various sections within the boiler were being represented adequately, decoupled simulations of the ash deposition process on the deposit probe were carried out using a finely resolved boundary layer mesh. Fly ash particle size distribution (PSD) and its concentration for the decoupled calculations were determined from stand-alone cyclone barrel simulations. The ash partitioning (mass %) between the fly ash and slag was found to be ~50:50, which was in line with previous field observations, and it did not vary significantly across different cyclone loads. The predicted PSD of the deposit ash was concentrated in the size range 10–30 microns, which was in agreement with cross-sectional images of the deposit obtained from the measurements. At lower loads, sharp variations in the deposition rates were predicted in the gas temperature range 950–1150 K. The particle kinetic energy—particle viscosity-based capture methodology utilized in this study in conjunction with appropriate ash compositions, ash viscosity models and gas temperature estimates can help estimate slagging propensities at different loads reasonably well in these systems.

Krishnamoorthy, Gautham (ORCID:0000000255205092)↗

Multidimensional Numerical Modeling of Combustion Dynamics in a Non-Premixed Rotating Detonation Engine With Adaptive Mesh Refinement

In the present work, a novel computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methodology was developed to simulate full-scale non-premixed rotating detonation engines (RDEs). A unique feature of the modeling approach was the incorporation of adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) to achieve a good trade-off between model accuracy and computational expense. Here, unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) simulations were performed for an Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) non-premixed RDE configuration with hydrogen as fuel and air as the oxidizer. The finite-rate chemistry model, along with a ten-species detailed kinetic mechanism, was employed to describe the H 2 -Air combustion chemistry. Three distinct operating conditions were simulated, corresponding to the same global equivalence ratio of unity but different fuel/air mass flowrates. For all conditions, the capability of the model to capture essential detonation wave dynamics was assessed. An exhaustive verification and validation study was performed against experimental data in terms of a number of waves, wave frequency, wave height, reactant fill height, oblique shock angle, axial pressure distribution in the channel, and fuel/air plenum pressure. The CFD model was demonstrated to accurately predict the sensitivity of these wave characteristics to the operating conditions, both qualitatively and quantitatively. A comprehensive heat release analysis was also conducted to quantify detonative versus deflagrative burning for the three simulated cases. The present CFD model offers a potential capability to perform rapid design space exploration and/or performance optimization studies for realistic full-scale RDE configurations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Uncertainty quantification and propagation in lithium-ion battery electrodes using bayesian convolutional neural networks

The complex nature of manufacturing processes stipulates electrodes to possess high variability with increased heterogeneity during production. X-ray computed tomography imaging has proved to be critical in visualizing the complicated stochastic particle distribution of as-manufactured electrodes in lithium-ion batteries. However, accurate prediction of their electrochemical performance necessitates precise evaluation of kinetic and transport properties from real electrodes. Image segmentation that characterizes voxels to particle/pore phase is often meticulous and fraught with subjectivity owing to a myriad of unconstrained choices and filter algorithms. Here we utilize a Bayesian convolutional neural network to tackle segmentation subjectivity and quantify its pertinent uncertainties. Otsu inter-variance and Blind/Referenceless Imaging Spatial Quality Evaluator are used to assess the relative image quality of grayscale tomograms, thus evaluating the uncertainty in the derived microstructural attributes. We analyze how image uncertainty is correlated with the uncertainties and magnitude of kinetic and transport properties of an electrode, further identifying pathways of uncertainty propagation within microstructural attributes. The coupled effect of spatial heterogeneity and microstructural anisotropy on the uncertainty quantification of transport parameters is also understood. This work demonstrates a novel methodology to extract microstructural descriptors from real electrode images through quantification of associated uncertainties and discerning the relative strength of their propagation, thus facilitating feedback to manufacturing processes from accurate image based electrochemical simulations.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Simulation of Reverse Osmosis Membrane Compaction Using Material Point Method (MPM)

Access to fresh drinking water in the future requires effective management of industrial wastewater and water purification from available resources. In this study, we present the simulation methodology and the analysis of a Reverse Osmosis (RO) membrane under various pressure conditions using the Material Point Method (MPM). In contrast to other numerical methods, MPM solves the continuum governing equations on material points in a Lagrangian framework. The method does not require a grid connecting the material points hence making it suitable to simulate large deformations during membrane compaction. The time integration is carried out using the explicit Euler method, while the spatial discretization is performed using linear or cubic-spline shape functions. A series of planar images containing detailed pore structures obtained from X-ray tomography experiments is converted to a three-dimensional collection of material points to simulate the membrane. Compressive loads are applied to the top layer of the membrane to simulate the experiments. The membrane deformation and pore size distribution before and after load application are reported and compared with the experimental measurements. The presentation discusses the numerical methods used, the performance of the solver on high-performance computing machines, and the results of membrane compaction in detail.

ENGINEERING,MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Improving photovoltaic hosting capacity of distribution networks with coordinated inverter control: A case study of the EPRI J1 feeder

Abstract Adding photovoltaic (PV) systems in distribution networks, while desirable for reducing the carbon footprint, can lead to voltage violations under high solar‐low load conditions. The inability of traditional volt‐VAr control in eliminating all the violations is also well‐known. This article presents a novel coordinated inverter control methodology that leverages system‐wide situational awareness to significantly improve hosting capacity (HC). The methodology employs a real‐time voltage‐reactive power (VQ) sensitivity matrix in an iterative linear optimizer to calculate the minimum reactive power intervention from PV inverters needed for mitigating over‐voltage without resorting to active power curtailing or requiring step voltage regulator setting changes. The algorithm is validated using the EPRI J1 feeder under an extensive set of realistic use cases and is shown to provide 3x improvement in HC under all scenarios.

Dalal, Dhaval [School of Electrical, Computer, and↗

Reinforcement Learning for Intentional Islanding in Resilient Power Transmission Systems

Intentional islanding is the process of identifying and deliberately decomposing the transmission network to form self-sustained islands from an endangered network during disruptions to improve resilience and security. Most existing intentional islanding models are offline resilience decision tools and hence do not provide outage responses in a timely manner. In this paper, a reinforcement learning (RL) based model for intentional islanding is developed, which offers real-time switching control, online deployability, and adaptability to varying system conditions. The intentional islanding process is formulated as a Markov decision process, where the optimal transmission switching policy is learned using the RL approach. The control policy is learned over an environment that encompasses a Power System Simulator for Engineering (PSS/E) model of the transmission network, facilitated by an interface to the standard openAI Gym framework. The proposed RL-based methodology aims to form stable and self-sustainable islands by ensuring voltage stability while reducing the power mismatch in the formed islands. A proximal policy optimization algorithm is designed, which is suitable for controlling the on/off status of the switches with multi-layer perceptron as value and actor networks. The effectiveness of the proposed framework in the self-recovery of the grid by island formation is applied on the modified IEEE 39-bus test network and validated by dynamic simulations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Simulation of Reverse Osmosis Membrane Compaction Using Material Point Method

Reverse Osmosis (RO) is a promising technology to address the impending water-crisis in the upcoming decades. RO at high salinities and high pressures is challenging due to membrane compaction that changes its porosity and permeability. In this study, we present a simulation methodology for membrane structural mechanics to understand pore size distribution and permeability variations under high pressure. We use the material point method (MPM), that solves the solid mechanics equations in a Lagrangian framework. MPM provides many features that make it well-suited for simulating mesoporous membranes. The Lagrangian framework allows for large deformations, easy integration of constitutive models and direct import of complex geometries as particles. The spatial discretization in our MPM solver is achieved using linear or cubic-spline shape functions while the time integration is carried out using the explicit Euler method. A series of images containing detailed pore structures obtained from X-ray tomography is first converted to a collection of material points. Compressive loads are applied to the top layer of the membrane to simulate the application of pressure. The membrane deformation and pore size distribution before and after load application are reported and compared with the experimental measurements. The presentation discusses the numerical methods used, the performance of the solver on high-performance computing machines, and the results of membrane compact in detail.

compaction↗

Application of the bRapid fission matrix burnup methodology to the JSI TRIGA Mark II research reactor

The novel burnup methodology, bRAPID, of the RAPID code system has been applied to the TRIGA Mark II research reactor at the 'Jozef Stefan' Institute. This paper presents the first step in our goal for on-line determination of isotope inventory and burnup, that the RAPID code system with its Fission Matrix (FM) method enables. Burnup analysis of changes in FM coefficients due to TRIGA fuel burnup at different irradiation times and specific power distribution in the reactor core is presented. Our results demonstrate that primary contribution for changes of FM coefficients is the burnup of the destination s, while the spectrum differences, that arise due to fuel's core location, have negligible effect on FM coefficients. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Demonstration of Algorithm for Sensor Placement Optimization using Simulation Data

This deliverable reports FY26 progress in advancing a neural-network-based Green’s-function framework for reconstructing neutron-flux distributions from ex-core measurements and for translating reconstruction requirements into a practical detector-layout strategy. Building on the FY25 formulation, the present work had two main objectives: (1) refine and re-evaluate the reconstruction methodology on an updated Purdue University Reactor Number One (PUR-1) model, and (2) develop a systematic, Green’s-function-guided procedure for boundary detector placement.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

An investigation on machine learning predictive accuracy improvement and uncertainty reduction using VAE-based data augmentation

The confluence of ultrafast computers with large memory, rapid progress in Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, and the availability of large datasets place multiple engineering fields at the threshold of dramatic progress. However, a unique challenge in nuclear engineering is data scarcity because experimentation on nuclear systems is usually more expensive and time-consuming than most other disciplines. One potential way to resolve the data scarcity issue is deep generative learning, which uses certain ML models to learn the underlying distribution of existing data and generate synthetic samples that resemble the real data. In this way, one can significantly expand the dataset to train more accurate predictive ML models. In this study, our objective is to evaluate the effectiveness of data augmentation using variational autoencoder (VAE)-based deep generative models. We investigated whether the data augmentation leads to improved accuracy in the predictions of a deep neural network (DNN) model trained using the augmented data. Additionally, the DNN prediction uncertainties are quantified using Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN) and conformal prediction (CP) to assess the impact on predictive uncertainty reduction. To test the proposed methodology, we used TRACE simulations of steady-state void fraction data based on the NUPEC Boiling Water Reactor Full-size Fine-mesh Bundle Test (BFBT) benchmark. Here, we found that augmenting the training dataset using VAEs has improved the DNN model’s predictive accuracy, improved the prediction confidence intervals, and reduced the prediction uncertainties.

Bayesian neural network↗

The PAU Survey: an improved photo- z sample in the COSMOS field

Here we present – and make publicly available – accurate and precise photometric redshifts in the ACS footprint from the COSMOS field for objects with i AB ≤ 23. The redshifts are computed using a combination of narrow-band photometry from PAUS, a survey with 40 narrow bands spaced at $100\,\mathring{\rm A}$ intervals covering the range from 4500 to $8500\,\mathring{\rm A}$, and 26 broad, intermediate, and narrow bands covering the UV, visible and near-infrared spectrum from the COSMOS2015 catalogue. We introduce a new method that models the spectral energy distributions as a linear combination of continuum and emission-line templates and computes its Bayes evidence, integrating over the linear combinations. The correlation between the UV luminosity and the $\mathrm{O\,{\small II}}$ line is measured using the 66 available bands with the zCOSMOS spectroscopic sample, and used as a prior which constrains the relative flux between continuum and emission-line templates. The flux ratios between the $\mathrm{O\,{\small II}}$ line and H α , H β and $\mathrm{O\,{\small III}}$ are similarly measured and used to generate the emission-line templates. Comparing to public spectroscopic surveys via the quantity Δ z ≡ (z photo – z spec )/(1 + z spec ), we find the photometric redshifts to be more precise than previous estimates, with σ 68 (Δ z ) ≈ (0.003, 0.009) for galaxies at magnitude i AB ~ 18 and i AB ~ 23, respectively, which is three times and 1.66 times tighter than COSMOS2015. Additionally, we find the redshifts to be very accurate on average, yielding a median of the Δ z distribution compatible with |median(Δ z )| ≤ 0.001 at all redshifts and magnitudes considered. Both the added PAUS data and new methodology contribute significantly to the improved results. The catalogue produced with the technique presented here is expected to provide a robust redshift calibration for current and future lensing surveys, and allows one to probe galaxy formation physics in an unexplored luminosity-redshift regime, thanks to its combination of depth, completeness, and excellent redshift precision and accuracy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Direct Numerical Simulation of Transitional and Turbulent Flows Over Multi-Scale Surface Roughness—Part I: Methodology and Challenges

Abstract High-fidelity simulation of transitional and turbulent flows over multi-scale surface roughness presents several challenges. For instance, the complex and irregular geometrical nature of surface roughness makes it impractical to employ conforming structured grids, commonly adopted in large-scale numerical simulations due to their high computational efficiency. One possible solution to overcome this problem is offered by immersed boundary methods, which allow wall boundary conditions to be enforced on grids that do not conform to the geometry of the solid boundary. To this end, a three-dimensional, second-order accurate boundary data immersion method (BDIM) is adopted. A novel mapping algorithm that can be applied to general three-dimensional surfaces is presented, together with a newly developed data-capturing methodology to extract and analyze on-surface flow quantities of interest. A rigorous procedure to compute gradient quantities such as the wall shear stress and the heat flux on complex non-conforming geometries is also introduced. The new framework is validated by performing a direct numerical simulation (DNS) of fully developed turbulent channel flow over sinusoidal egg-carton roughness in a minimal-span domain. For this canonical case, the averaged streamwise velocity profiles are compared against results from the literature obtained with a body-fitted grid. General guidelines on the BDIM resolution requirements for multi-scale roughness simulation are given. Momentum and energy balance methods are used to validate the calculation of the overall skin friction and heat transfer at the wall. The BDIM is then employed to investigate the effect of irregular homogeneous surface roughness on the performance of an LS-89 high-pressure turbine blade at engine-relevant conditions using DNS. This is the first application of the BDIM to realize multi-scale roughness for transitional flow in transonic conditions in the context of high-pressure turbines. The methodology adopted to generate the desired roughness distribution and to apply it to the reference blade geometry is introduced. The results are compared to the case of an equivalent smooth blade.

Engineering↗

Robust scalable initialization for Bayesian variational inference with multi-modal Laplace approximations

Predictive modeling typically relies on Bayesian model calibration to provide uncertainty quantification. Variational inference utilizing fully independent (“mean-field”) Gaussian distributions are often used as approximate probability density functions. This simplification is attractive since the number of variational parameters grows only linearly with the number of unknown model parameters. However, the resulting diagonal covariance structure and unimodal behavior can be too restrictive to provide useful approximations of intractable Bayesian posteriors that exhibit highly non-Gaussian behavior, including multimodality. High-fidelity surrogate posteriors for these problems can be obtained by considering the family of Gaussian mixtures. Gaussian mixtures are capable of capturing multiple modes and approximating any distribution to an arbitrary degree of accuracy, while maintaining some analytical tractability. Unfortunately, variational inference using Gaussian mixtures with full-covariance structures suffers from a quadratic growth in variational parameters with the number of model parameters. The existence of multiple local minima due to strong nonconvex trends in the loss functions often associated with variational inference present additional complications, These challenges motivate the need for robust initialization procedures to improve the performance and computational scalability of variational inference with mixture models. In this work, we propose a method for constructing an initial Gaussian mixture model approximation that can be used to warm-start the iterative solvers for variational inference. The procedure begins with a global optimization stage in model parameter space. In this step, local gradient-based optimization, globalized through multistart, is used to determine a set of local maxima, which we take to approximate the mixture component centers. Around each mode, a local Gaussian approximation is constructed via the Laplace approximation. Finally, the mixture weights are determined through constrained least squares regression. The robustness and scalability of the proposed methodology is demonstrated through application to an ensemble of synthetic tests using high-dimensional, multimodal probability density functions. Here, the practical aspects of the approach are demonstrated with inversion problems in structural dynamics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Development of Integrated Safety and Security Models for Comprehensive Reliability and Resiliency Evaluation

The security of the electric grid and supporting energy systems is crucial to national security. One of the complexities in analyzing the security of energy systems is the safety consequences that may result from accidents. For energy systems, the goal is to ensure that they operate as intended and that any consequences are mitigated or prevented. The integration of safety and security is paramount to protecting these systems from attacks and ensuring that large consequences are prevented. This report describes an integrated safety and security methodology to evaluate cybersecurity events that can lead to large consequences. This novel approach first describes how Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) provides a digital causal analysis for Bayesian Networks (BNs). The use of STPA causal analysis provides a systematic approach to constructing BNs that adequately model cyber scenarios that result in consequences. When combined with the technical principles described in Risk-Informed Management of Enterprise Systems (RIMES), a comprehensive risk-informed cybersecurity analysis results that allows decision-makers to prioritize systems that most impact risk.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

SCUC-DER Integration Report: Integrating Distributed Energy Resources (DER) Using Advanced Unit Commitment Models and DER Aggregation Methodologies

Distributed energy resources (DERs) are continuing to grow due to regulatory, policy, and market shifts, and it needs to be ensured that small DERs are given a level playing field with traditional resources. Legacy market processes such as unit-commitment problems were designed for a power grid consisting largely of centralized power plants. In contrast, DERs consist of many small devices with distinct operating characteristics that may or may not be connected at the transmission interconnection points, limiting their visibility to the independent system operators (ISOs) who operate wholesale electricity markets. This report details the development and initial results from a simulation platform that integrates state-of-the-art security-constrained unit commitment software, detailed feeder models, and a DER aggregator model to quantify potential DER integration issues. Quantitative results to date illustrate potential infeasible scheduling solutions from SCUC when the DERA includes aggregations of energy-limited energy storage resources. Likewise, if aggregations are not penalized for dispatch deviations, they may have incentives to deviate from the SCUC-determined resource schedules. Assumptions about the amount of aggregated demand response resources (DRRs) and the ability of DERAs to follow profit incentives have an important impact – DRRs have significant flexibility and can typically feasibly meet their SCUC schedule, but on the other hand, their profit incentives can cause unscheduled increases in load before and after DRR dispatch. Computation time results on the SCUC solver and simulation platform only show a modest increase in SCUC solution time as the number of DERAs is increased, but results to date only reflect the RTS-GMLC test system; results may show more significant solver slowdown in larger transmission systems. The largest contribution to simulation time is attributed to the DERA offer generation method, which is suggested for future improvements.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Defender Policy Evaluation and Resource Allocation against MITRE ATT&CK Data and Evaluations

Protecting against multi-step attacks of uncertain duration and timing forces defenders into an indefinite, always ongoing, resource-intensive response. To effectively allocate resources, a defender must be able to analyze multi-step attacks under assumption of constantly allocating resources against an uncertain stream of potentially undetected attacks. To achieve this goal, we present a novel methodology that applies a game-theoretic approach to the attack, attacker, and defender data derived from MITRE´s ATT&CK ® Framework. Time to complete attack steps is drawn from a probability distribution determined by attacker and defender strategies and capabilities. This constraints attack success parameters and enables comparing different defender resource allocation strategies. By approximating attacker-defender games as Markov processes, we represent the attacker-defender interaction, estimate the attack success parameters, determine the effects of attacker and defender strategies, and maximize opportunities for defender strategy improvements against an uncertain stream of attacks. This novel representation and analysis of multi-step attacks enables defender policy optimization and resource allocation, which we illustrate using the data from MITRE´ s APT3 ATT&CK ® Framework.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Risk-Informed Condition Evaluation of Solar-centered Energy Generation and Distribution Networks through Bayesian Learning and Inference

We develop a methodology based on Bayesian inference over Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) to understand and quantify risk in solar-centered grids using targeted measurements and learned system behavior. Being non-prescriptive but, rather, able to infer system behavior and, ultimately, address risk queries from data, our machine learning-type paradigm is tailored for diverse topologies and threat scenarios often associated with distributed energy generation and photovoltaic distributed energy resources (PV-DERs) in particular. We describe algorithmic processes for: (i) learning the structure of PGMs that result from attack-prone PV-DER-proliferated distribution systems, (ii) quantifying cause-effect relationships, and (iii) evaluating risk queries based on diverse evidence. The contributions are illustrated on a residential grid subject to output impairment attacks on its PV-DER infrastructure.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗