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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Mechanisms of Dynamic Near-Wake Modulation of a Utility-Scale Wind Turbine

The current study uses large eddy simulations to investigate the transient response of a utility-scale wind turbine wake to dynamic changes in atmospheric and operational conditions, as observed in previous field-scale measurements. Most wind turbine wake investigations assume quasi-steady conditions, but real wind turbines operate in a highly stochastic atmosphere, and their operation (e.g. blade pitch, yaw angle) changes constantly in response. Furthermore, dynamic control strategies have been recently proposed to optimize wind farm power generation and longevity. Therefore, improved understanding of dynamic wake behaviours is essential. First, changes in blade pitch are investigated and the wake expansion response is found to display hysteresis as a result of flow inertia. The time scales of the wake response to different pitch rates are quantified. Next, changes in wind direction with different time scales are explored. Under short time scales, the wake deflection is in the opposite direction of that observed under quasi-steady conditions. Finally, yaw changes are implemented at different rates, and the maximum inverse wake deflection and time scale are quantified, showing a clear dependence on yaw rate. To gain further physical understanding of the mechanism behind the inverse wake deflection, the streamwise vorticity in different parts of the wake is quantified. The results of this study provide guidance for the design of advanced wake flow control algorithms. The lag in wake response observed for both blade pitch and yaw changes shows that proposed dynamic control strategies must implement turbine operational changes with a time scale of the order of the rotor time scale or slower.

flow-structure interactions↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of the Near-Surface Variables in the HRRR Weather Model Using Observations from the ARM SGP Site

Abstract The performance of version 4 of the NOAA High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) numerical weather prediction model for near-surface variables, including wind, humidity, temperature, surface latent and sensible fluxes, and longwave and shortwave radiative fluxes, is examined over the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) region. The study evaluated the model’s bias and bias-corrected mean absolute error relative to the observations on different time scales. Forecasts of near-surface geophysical variables at five SGP sites (HRRR at 3-km scale) were found to agree well with observations, but some consistent observation–forecast differences also occurred. Sensible and latent heat fluxes are the most challenging variables to be reproduced. The diurnal cycle is the main temporal scale affecting observation–forecast differences of the near-surface variables, and almost all of the variables showed different biases throughout the diurnal cycle. Results show that the overestimation of downward shortwave and the underestimation of downward longwave radiative flux are the two major biases found in this study. The timing and magnitude of downward longwave flux, wind speed, and sensible and latent heat fluxes are also different with contributions from model representations, data assimilation limitations, and differences in scales between HRRR and SGP sites. The positive bias in downward shortwave and negative bias in longwave radiation suggests that the model is underestimating cloud fraction in the study domain. The study concludes by showing a brief comparison with version 3 of the HRRR and shows that version 4 has better performance in almost all near-surface variables. Significance Statement A correct representation of the near-surface variables is important for numerical weather prediction models. This study investigates the capability of the latest NOAA High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRRv4) model in simulating the near-surface variables by comparing against the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) in situ observations. Among others, we find that the surface heat fluxes, such as sensible and latent heat fluxes, are the most difficult variables to be reproduced. This study also shows that the diurnal cycle has the dominant impact on the model’s performance, which means the majority of the outputted near-surface variables have the strong diurnal cycle in their bias errors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

How can an ecosystem approach support integrated management of marine renewable energy? An initial assessment from an environmental point of view

With the increasing installation of marine renewable energy (MRE) devices in areas already subject to multiple anthropogenic activities and environmental changes, it is necessary to develop tools and methods for the integrated management of marine ecosystems. The ecosystem approach is a holistic environmental management method that considers all components of an ecosystem. The ecosystem approach has demonstrated utility in the application to various anthropogenic activities and is relevant for consideration within the context of MRE. Indeed, many of the effects observed on marine ecosystems from those other activities are also applicable to MRE development. This review is an initial assessment where we summarize the potential effects of MRE development on marine ecosystems and propose schematic frameworks for applying the ecosystem approach to MRE. We also provide a non-exhaustive list of commonly used models pertinent to the ecosystem approach and associated with several reference studies. An outline of core questions that can currently be answered using available modeling tools central to the ecosystem approach is provided, along with recommendations for the application of this approach to the MRE context. Further, we identify key knowledge gaps and areas that require additional investigation for meaningful application of the ecosystem approach to MRE development. Our recommendations mainly concern the current limitations of applying the ecosystem approach to concrete cases, such as consolidating knowledge of the effects of MRE on the local environment, the need to obtain fine-scale data, considering effects at different spatiotemporal scales, and, finally, the need for an interdisciplinary vision.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical-embedding autoencoder with a predictor as efficient architecture for learning time-evolution in multi-scale turbulent flows

We introduce a scale-aware, data-driven deep learning modeling framework for accurately predicting the time evolution of multi-scale turbulent plasma and liquid flows. The approach is motivated by the idea of scale separation. Structures of vastly different length scales emerge in these systems, and interactions between these structures occur only locally. To exploit this structure, the flow state is transformed by a hierarchical, fully convolutional autoencoder, not into a single embedding layer as in conventional convolutional surrogate models, but into a series of embedding layers. A stepwise training strategy ensures that fine-scale features are encoded on a high-resolution grid, while larger structures are represented on progressively coarser layers. The time evolution predictor advances all embedding layers in sync, capturing local interactions between features at the same scale as well as between all scales. This approach enables efficient modeling of multi-scale systems since negligible interactions between distant, small-scale structures do not need to be directly modeled. Our hierarchical-embedding autoencoder with a predictor framework is evaluated on canonical examples of multi-scale turbulence: two-dimensional Kolmogorov flow and Hasegawa–Wakatani plasma turbulence. In both cases, the proposed framework significantly improves predictive accuracy relative to conventional convolutional network architectures. A significant improvement in prediction accuracy was observed for crucial statistical characteristics of the Hasegawa–Wakatani plasma as well as for individual trajectories of the Kolmogorov flow turbulence. Importantly, the model's rollout for the Hasegawa–Wakatani problem demonstrates a four-order-of-magnitude speedup compared to traditional numerical solvers.

Khrabry, Alexander I. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United↗
DOE OSTI2022

Host Dark Matter Halos of SDSS Red and Blue Quasars: No Significant Difference in Large-scale Environment

The observed optical colors of quasars are generally interpreted in one of two frameworks: unified models that attribute the color to the random orientation of the accretion disk along the line of sight, and evolutionary models that invoke connections between quasar systems and their environments. We test these schemas by probing the dark matter halo environments of optically selected quasars as a function of g – i optical color by measuring the two-point correlation functions of ~0.34 million eBOSS quasars as well as the gravitational deflection of cosmic microwave background photons around ~0.66 million XDQSO photometric quasar candidates. We do not detect a trend of halo bias with optical color through either analysis, finding that optically selected quasars at 0.8 < z < 2.2 occupy halos of characteristic mass M h ~ 3 × 10 12 h –1 M ⊙ regardless of their color. This result implies that a quasar's large-scale halo environment is not strongly connected to its observed optical color. We also confirm the findings of fundamental differences in the radio properties of red and blue quasars by stacking 1.4 GHz FIRST images at their positions, suggesting the observed differences cannot be attributed to orientation. Instead, the differences between red and blue quasars likely arise on nuclear-galactic scales, perhaps owing to reddening by a nuclear dusty wind. Finally, we show that optically selected quasars' halo environments are also independent of their r – W2 optical–infrared colors, while previous work has suggested that mid-infrared-selected obscured quasars occupy more massive halos. We discuss the implications of this result for models of quasar and galaxy coevolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for KETCHUP: Parameterizing of Large-Scale Kinetic Models Using Multiple Datasets with Different Reference States

Repository for Kinetic Estimation Tool Capturing Heterogeneous Datasets Using Pyomo (KETCHUP), a flexible parameter estimation tool that leverages a primal-dual interior-point algorithm to solve a nonlinear programming (NLP) problem that identifies a set of parameters capable of recapitulating the steady-state fluxes and concentrations in wild-type and perturbed metabolic networks. KETCHUP can use K-FIT [2] input files. Example K-FIT input files are located in the K-FIT repository at https://github.com/maranasgroup/K-FIT.

Metabolomics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Lagrangian conditional statistics and flow topology in edge plasma turbulence

Lagrangian statistics and particle transport in edge plasma turbulence are investigated using the Hasegawa–Wakatani model and its modified version. The latter shows the emergence of pronounced zonal flows. Different values of the adiabaticity parameter are considered. The main goal is to characterize the role of coherent structures, i.e., vortices and zonal flows, and their impact on the Lagrangian statistics of particles. Computationally intensive long time simulations following ensembles of test particles over hundreds of eddy turnover times are considered in statistically stationary turbulent flows. The flow topology is characterized using the Lagrangian Okubo–Weiss criterion in order to split the flow into topologically different domains. In elliptic and hyperbolic regions, the probability density functions (PDFs) of the residence time have self-similar algebraic decaying tails. However, in the intermediate regions, the PDFs exhibit exponentially decaying tails. Topologically conditioned PDFs of the Lagrangian velocity, and acceleration and density fluctuations are likewise computed. The differences between the classical Hasegawa–Wakatani system and its modified version are assessed, and the role of zonal flows is highlighted. Here, the density flux spectrum, which characterizes the contributions of different length scales, is studied, and its inertial scaling is found to be in agreement with predictions based on dimensional arguments. Analyzing the angular change of particle tracers at different time scales, corresponding to coarse grained curvature, completes the study, and these multiscale geometric statistics quantify the directional properties of the particle motion in different flow regimes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Data Set for Intercomparing the Transient Behavior of Dynamical Model-Based Subseasonal to Decadal Climate Predictions

Climate predictions using coupled models in different time scales, from intraseasonal to decadal, are usually affected by initial shocks, drifts, and biases, which reduce the prediction skill. These arise from inconsistencies between different components of the coupled models and from the tendency of the model state to evolve from the prescribed initial conditions toward its own climatology over the course of the prediction. Aiming to provide tools and further insight into the mechanisms responsible for initial shocks, drifts, and biases, this paper presents a novel data set developed within the Long Range Forecast Transient Intercomparison Project, LRFTIP. This data set has been constructed by averaging hindcasts over available prediction years and ensemble members to form a hindcast climatology, that is a function of spatial variables and lead time, and thus results in a useful tool for characterizing and assessing the evolution of errors as well as the physical mechanisms responsible for them. A discussion on such errors at the different time scales is provided along with plausible ways forward in the field of climate predictions

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

More relaxed intracluster gas than galaxies in clusters in quasi-equilibrium

ABSTRACT During cluster mergers, the intracluster gas and member galaxies undergo dynamic evolution, but at different time-scales and reach different states. We collect 24 galaxy clusters in quasi-equilibrium state as indicated by the X-ray image, and calculate the cluster orientations and three kinds of dynamical parameters, i.e. the normalized centroid offset, the sphere index, and the ellipticity, for these clusters from the distributions of member galaxies and also the intracluster gas. We find consistent alignments for the orientations estimated from the two components. However, the three kinds of dynamical parameters indicated by member galaxies are systematically larger than those derived from the gas component, suggesting that the gas component is more relaxed than member galaxies. Differences of dynamical features between the intracluster gas and member galaxies are independent of cluster mass and concentration. We conclude that the intracluster gas reaches the dynamic equilibrium state earlier than the almost-collisionless member galaxies.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

KETCHUP: Parameterizing of large-scale kinetic models using multiple datasets with different reference states

Large-scale kinetic models provide the computational means to dynamically link metabolic reaction fluxes to metabolite concentrations and enzyme levels while also conforming to substrate level regulation. However, the development of broadly applicable frameworks for efficiently and robustly parameterizing models remains a challenge. Challenges arise due to both the heterogeneity, paucity, and difficulty in obtaining flux and/or concentration data but also due to the computational difficulties of the underlying parameter identification problem. Both the computational demands for parameterization, degeneracy of obtained parameter solutions and interpretability of results has so far limited widespread adoption of large-scale kinetic models despite their potential. Herein, we introduce the Kinetic Estimation Tool Capturing Heterogeneous Datasets Using Pyomo (KETCHUP), a flexible parameter estimation tool that leverages a primal-dual interior-point algorithm to solve a nonlinear programming (NLP) problem that identifies a set of parameters capable of recapitulating the (non)steady-state fluxes and concentrations in wild-type and perturbed metabolic networks. KETCHUP is benchmarked against previously parameterized large-scale kinetic models demonstrating an at least an order of magnitude faster convergence than the tool K-FIT while at the same time attaining better data fits. Finally, this versatile toolbox accepts different kinetic descriptions, metabolic fluxes, enzyme levels and metabolite concentrations, under either steady-state or instationary conditions to enable robust kinetic model construction and parameterization. KETCHUP supports the SBML format and can be accessed at https://github.com/maranasgroup/KETCHUP.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Statistical Homogenization of Elastic and Fracture Properties of a Sample Selective Laser Melting Material

Selective laser melting (SLM) is an additive manufacturing technique commonly used in the rapid prototyping of components. The complexity of the SLM microstructure poses a unique challenge to deriving effective mechanical properties at different length scales. Representative volume elements (RVEs) are often used to homogenize the material properties of composites. Instead of RVEs, we use statistical volume elements (SVEs) to homogenize the elastic and fracture properties of the material. This relates the inherent variation of a material’s microstructure to the variation in its mechanical properties at different observation scales. The convergence to the RVE limit is examined from two perspectives: the stability of the mean value as the SVE size increases for the mean-based approach, and the tendency of the normalized variation in homogenized properties to zero as the SVE size increases for the variation-based approach. Fracture properties tend to make the RVE limit slower than do elastic properties from both perspectives. There are also differences between vertical (normal to printing plane) and horizontal (in-plane) properties. While the elastic properties tend to make the RVE limit faster for the horizontal direction, i.e., having a smaller variation and more stable mean value, the fracture properties exhibit the opposite effect. We attributed these differences to the geometry of the melt pools.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

A seamless multiscale operator neural network for inferring bubble dynamics

Modelling multiscale systems from nanoscale to macroscale requires the use of atomistic and continuum methods and, correspondingly, different computer codes. Here, we develop a seamless method based on DeepONet, which is a composite deep neural network (a branch and a trunk network) for regressing operators. In particular, we consider bubble growth dynamics, and we model tiny bubbles of initial size from 100 nm to 10 $\mathrm {\mu }\textrm {m}$ , modelled by the Rayleigh–Plesset equation in the continuum regime above 1 $\mathrm {\mu }\textrm {m}$ and the dissipative particle dynamics method for bubbles below 1 $\mathrm {\mu }\textrm {m}$ in the atomistic regime. After an offline training based on data from both regimes, DeepONet can make accurate predictions of bubble growth on-the-fly (within a fraction of a second) across four orders of magnitude difference in spatial scales and two orders of magnitude in temporal scales. The framework of DeepONet is general and can be used for unifying physical models of different scales in diverse multiscale applications.

Mechanics↗
DOE OSTI2024

A conservative discontinuous-Galerkin-in-time (DGiT) multirate time integration framework for interface-coupled problems with applications to solid–solid interaction and air–sea models

In this paper we extend the DGiT multirate framework, developed in Connors and Sockwell (2022) for scalar transmission problems, to a solid–solid interaction (SSI) problem involving two coupled elastic solids and a coupled air–sea model with the rotating, thermal shallow water equations. In so doing we aim to demonstrate the broad applicability of the mathematical theory and governing principles established in Connors and Sockwell (2022) to coupled problems characterized by subproblems evolving at different temporal scales. Further, multirate time integration algorithms employing different time steps, optimized for the dynamics of each subproblem, can significantly improve simulation efficiency for such coupled problems. However, development of multirate algorithms is a highly non-trivial task due to the coupling, which can impact accuracy, stability or other desired properties such as preservation of system invariants. DGiT provides a general template for multirate time integration that can achieve these properties. To elucidate the manner in which DGiT accomplishes this task, we fully detail each step in the application of the framework to the SSI and air–sea coupled problems. Numerical examples illustrate key properties of the resulting multirate schemes for both problems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

FORCE Update 2024

The Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite is the U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Integrated Energy Systems (IES) Program flagship tool suite for technoeconomic IES analysis of IES. This tool suite is useful for analysis designed to evaluate and improve the technoeconomics of energy production systems, particularly for systems including nuclear technology. In this report, we document the development activity for the FORCE tool suite to extend its capabilities as performed during fiscal year 2024. In addition to reliability and accessibility, capability is one of the three standards guiding the development of the FORCE tool suite and the software codes that are its constituent parts. Extending the capabilities of the FORCE tool suite allows analysis both within the IES program as well as industry, university, and laboratory partners to perform analysis with more accuracy, insight, and impactful narrative. Four areas of capability development were the focus of activity this year: economic parameter uncertainty quantification, multiresolution analysis, components-to-optimization workflow automation, and statespace construction workflows for real-time optimal control. In economic parameter uncertainty quantification, the ability of HERON to capture risk due to scenarios (weather and energy demand uncertainty) was expanded to also include uncertainties in financial parameters such as capital cost or operation and maintenance costs. By including these sources of uncertainty, which are sometimes very large compared with scenario uncertainty, HERON is better able to capture the risk posed by investment in various IES technology. Because of this, analysts can also consider the reduction in risks that can be realized by choice of some technologies. In multiresolution analysis, development activity extended on work completed previously. In fiscal year 2023, methods for decomposing time series signals, such as demand, solar and wind availability, and price profiles, were analyzed and down-selected to those most effective at splitting signals into different resolutions. These resolutions allow considering the influence of different energy demand and supply behaviors across different time scales. For example, energy demand might be divided into seasonal, weekly, and hourly profiles. In fiscal year 2024, this preliminary work was extended and implemented within the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) risk and uncertainty analysis platform, which is used throughout the FORCE framework. This development of the “multi-resolution time series analysis” (MR-TSA) module in RAVEN allows training synthetic history generators on complex time series. These synthetic history generators can then be used in HERON for generating scenarios that represent possible market and weather scenarios that can be analyzed on different time scales. We envision completing this work in the future, implementing multiresolution dispatch optimization strategies that can make the most beneficial use of these stratified time histories. In components-to-optimization workflow development, workflows for translating user inputs of components into algorithms for algebraic optimization were selected and implemented. Similar algorithms within the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) were separated from the main code base of HERON and gathered with the components-to-optimization workflows in the new Dispatch Optimization Variable Engine (DOVE) software library. This modularization allows FORCE users to analyze dispatch optimization and energy system duty cycles independently of HERON, which previously was a burdensome task. Additionally, these dispatch optimization algorithms, set up in an independent library, can now be used across all software applications within FORCE, especially including the real-time optimal control software Optimization of Real-time Capacity Allocation (ORCA). Allowing FORCE software to share dispatch optimization algorithms within a single library allows for improved software maintenance and reliability. In statespace characterization workflow development, alternative workflows for optimizing dispatch with additional technical accuracy was the focus, particularly to improve the real-time optimization decision making in ORCA. Using algorithms and workflows initially developed for the Feasible Actuator Range Modifier (FARM), workflows for determining the statespace representation of IES were identified and demonstrated. The resulting dispatch optimization required a more robust optimization algorithm than that originally used in HERON (and moved to DOVE), which required adding an alternate workflow to DOVE that can more accurately match the behavior of physical systems using a partial differential equation representation. In conclusion, capability developments in the FORCE tool suite in fiscal year 2024 have improved the ability of the FORCE tool suite to perform

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Degradation science: Integrating modeling and experiments to predict localized corrosion processes (Annual Progress Report)

Additively manufactured (AM) eutectic high-entropy alloys (EHEAs), such as nano-lamellar AlCoCrFeNi 2.1 , have excellent strength, ductility, and wear resistance even at elevated temperatures, but their corrosion behavior in aggressive acids at different length scales remain poorly understood. This work investigates the corrosion behavior of laser powder bed–fused (L-PBF) AlCoCrFeNi 2.1 as a function of annealing temperatures, probing degradation mechanisms from nanoscopic to macroscopic length scales. The alloy is dual phase consisting of a ductile FCC L1 2 phase and a high-strength BCC B2 phase. Rapid solidification during L-PBF produces a far-from-equilibrium nano-lamellar structure with nearly homogeneous elemental distribution, which tends to evolve upon annealing toward Cr/Co/Fe-enriched FCC and Al/Ni-enriched B2. Three conditions were studied: as-printed, 600 °C/5 h, and 1000 °C/1 h, over which B2 lamellae coarsen, lamellar spacing increases, and elemental segregation becomes more prominent. Microstructure and chemistry were characterized by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and energy-dispersive spectroscopy (EDS), while in-situ electrochemical atomic force microscopy (EC-AFM) was used to link early (<5 h) local dissolution to microstructure after exposure in sulfuric acid. EC-AFM highlights preferential dissolution of the BCC/B2 phase where the surrounding matrix is Cr-depleted and directly quantifies the dissolution rates within individual phases, tracks the transition from early nano-scale attack to partial repassivation, to correlate height differences with current and impedance responses. To monitor longer-term behavior (up to 96 h), ex-situ AFM, SEM, and confocal imaging were combined with conventional bulk electrochemical tests, bridging nanoscale observations to micro/meso-scale damage morphologies. At the meso-scale, the deepest dissolution channels align with the build-direction lamellae and melt-pool boundaries, indicating that printing directionality guides the propagation of these localized corrosion sites. Annealing modifies corrosion by restructuring BCC/FCC phase fractions, lamellar spacing, and Cr/Al segregation, thereby changing the cathode/anode ratio and passive film stability. The results clarify how as-printed and annealed nano-lamellar architectures differ in their susceptibility to selective dissolution; how elemental segregation competes with residual stresses along the build direction. With these insights, future work will use CALPHAD-guided alloy modification to stabilize higher Cr contents in the B2 phase while retaining a dominant FCC+B2/BCC microstructure, with the goal of designing mechanically robust, corrosion-resistant EHEAs for safety-critical applications to leverage the LLNL’s broader national and global security mission.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sustainable strategies to achieve industrial ethanol titers from different bioenergy feedstocks: scale-up approach for better ethanol yield

Hydrothermal pretreatment is a promising approach to lignocellulosic biomass processing for enzymatic hydrolysis and high-yield bioethanol fermentation, as it reduces downstream inhibitor content and the amount of toxic byproducts generated. In this paper, the ethanol yield and productivity of an engineered xylose-fermenting strain of Saccharomyces cerevisiae were tested on lignocellulosic hydrolysates produced with varying citrate buffer concentration, solid loading, supplemental nitrogen source, and feedstock of origin, and a semi-integrated bioprocess which integrates enzymatic hydrolysis and bioethanol fermentation was developed. The greatest ethanol yields (g p /g s ) of 0.490 ± 0.008, 0.460 ± 0.001, 0.420 ± 0.002 and 0.410 ± 0.002 were obtained from bioenergy sorghum (BES), Miscanthus × giganteus (MG), energy cane (EC), and oilcane (OC), respectively. In addition, an equivalent of 291 L, 253.54 L, 257.8 L, and 260.3 L of bioethanol were produced per ton of BES, MG, EC, and OC, respectively, by using urea as a nitrogen source in a bioreactor.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characterizing Performance of Freshwater Wetland Methane Models Across Time Scales at FLUXNET-CH 4 Sites Using Wavelet Analyses

Process-based land surface models are important tools for estimating global wetland methane (CH 4 ) emissions and projecting their behavior across space and time. So far there are no performance assessments of model responses to drivers at multiple time scales. In this study, we apply wavelet analysis to identify the dominant time scales contributing to model uncertainty in the frequency domain. We evaluate seven wetland models at 23 eddy covariance tower sites. Our study first characterizes site-level patterns of freshwater wetland CH 4 fluxes (FCH 4 ) at different time scales. A Monte Carlo approach was developed to incorporate flux observation error to avoid misidentification of the time scales that dominate model error. Our results suggest that (a) significant model-observation disagreements are mainly at multi-day time scales (<15 days); (b) most of the models can capture the CH 4 variability at monthly and seasonal time scales (>32 days) for the boreal and Arctic tundra wetland sites but have significant bias in variability at seasonal time scales for temperate and tropical/subtropical sites; (c) model errors exhibit increasing power spectrum as time scale increases, indicating that biases at time scales <5 days could contribute to persistent systematic biases on longer time scales; and (d) differences in error pattern are related to model structure (e.g., proxy of CH 4 production). Our evaluation suggests the need to accurately replicate FCH 4 variability, especially at short time scales, in future wetland CH 4 model developments.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Universality class for loopless invasion percolation models and a percolation avalanche burst model for hydraulic fracturing

Invasion percolation is a model that was originally proposed to describe growing networks of fractures. In this work, we describe a loopless algorithm on random lattices, coupled with an avalanche-based model for bursts. The model reproduces the characteristic b-value seismicity and spatial distribution of bursts consistent with earthquakes resulting from hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”). We test models for both site invasion percolation and bond invasion percolation. These have differences on the scale of site and bond lengths l. But since the networks are characterized by their large-scale behavior, l << L, we find small differences between scaling exponents. Though data may not differentiate between models, our results suggest that both models belong to different universality classes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗