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At least 235 records · Page 13

Surface-to-Interior Transport Timescales and Ventilation Patterns in a Time-Dependent Circulation Driven by Sustained Climate Warming

Abstract The effect of climate warming in response to rising atmospheric CO 2 on the ventilation of the ocean remains uncertain. Here we make theoretical advances in elucidating the relationship between ideal age and transit time distribution (TTD) in a time-dependent flow. Subsequently, we develop an offline tracer-transport model to characterize the ventilation patterns and time scales in the time-evolving circulation for the 1850–2300 period as simulated with the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESMv1) under a business-as-usual warming scenario. We found that by 2300 2.1% less water originates from the high-latitude deep water formation regions (both hemispheres) compared to 1850. In compensation, there is an increase in the water originating from the subantarctic. We also found that slowing meridional overturning circulation causes a gradual increase in mean age during the 1850–2300 period, with a globally averaged mean-age increase of ∼110 years in 2300. Where and when the water will be re-exposed to the atmosphere depends on the post-2300 circulation. For example, if we assume that the circulation persists in its year-2300 state (scenario 1), the mean interior-to-surface transit time in year 1850 is ∼1140 years. In contrast, if we assume that the circulation abruptly recovers to its year-1850 state (scenario 2), the mean interior-to-surface transit time in 1850 is only ∼740 years. By 2300, these differences become even larger; in scenario 1, the mean interior-to-surface transit time increases by ∼200 years, whereas scenario 2 decreases by ∼80 years. The dependence of interior-to-surface transit time on the future ocean circulation produces an additional unavoidable uncertainty in the long-term durability of marine carbon dioxide removal strategies. Significance Statement The ocean’s circulation, when altered by climate warming, can affect its capacity to absorb heat and CO 2 , which are crucial for the global climate. In our study, we investigated how global warming, caused by rising CO 2 levels, might impact the ocean circulation—the way water moves from deep ocean to the surface and vice versa. We discovered that by 2300, if we continue on our current warming trajectory, the origins of water within the ocean will shift, with less coming from deep, cold zones near the poles and more from subantarctic regions. As a result, deep water will take longer time before it resurfaces than shallow water. How quickly this water travels from deep regions to the surface could change, depending on the state of future ocean circulation. If the circulation remains as predicted in 2300, this journey will take longer. Conversely, if it reverts to the pattern in 1850, the process will be quicker. This variability introduces added uncertainty to strategies aimed at mitigating climate change by storing CO 2 in the ocean. Our work highlights the intricate ways in which climate change can influence our oceans, potentially affecting our plans to mitigate global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observations of Coastal Wind Momentum Flux: Dependence on Fetch and Waves with Comparisons to COARE

Here, using observations from the Martha’s Vineyard Coastal Observatory, this paper investigates how momentum flux in the marine atmospheric surface layer over the coastal ocean varies with fetch, wave age, and wave slope and assesses the performance of the COARE 3.5 bulk parameterization. Long-fetch (at least 300 km) and short-fetch (3–6 km away from land) conditions have very similar momentum flux, with the latter being just 15% higher. The COARE 3.5 wind speed–dependent formulation closely matches the observations. The sea state dependence of wave age and wave slope is analyzed by considering both peak frequency and mean frequency in a wave spectrum. The slope of regression lines between normalized roughness and wave age is sensitive to wind speed ranges and the scatter of momentum flux, potentially explaining why earlier studies did not find a universal formula to characterize the wave dependence. Although the observed momentum flux exhibits an obvious dependence on wave age, a robust quadratic fit between momentum flux and the 10-m neutral wind speed exists only for young waves. For the short-fetch conditions, the momentum flux does not increase as wave slope increases. This may be because waves generated by local wind are still weak and swell that propagates from other areas dominates the wave spectra. In other words, the wave slope computed by considering the spectra does not properly reflect the local wind–wave interaction.

Air-sea interaction↗

Fluorogenic aptamers resolve the flexibility of RNA junctions using orientation-dependent FRET

To further understand the transcriptome, new tools capable of measuring folding, interactions, and localization of RNA are needed. Although Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) is an angle- and distance-dependent phenomenon, the majority of FRET measurements have been used to report distances, by assuming rotationally averaged donor–acceptor pairs. Angle-dependent FRET measurements have proven challenging for nucleic acids due to the difficulties in incorporating fluorophores rigidly into local substructures in a biocompatible manner. Fluorescence turn-on RNA aptamers are genetically encodable tags that appear to rigidly confine their cognate fluorophores, and thus have the potential to report angular-resolved FRET. In this work, we use the fluorescent aptamers Broccoli and Mango-III as donor and acceptor, respectively, to measure the angular dependence of FRET. Joining the two fluorescent aptamers by a helix of variable length allowed systematic rotation of the acceptor fluorophore relative to the donor. FRET oscillated in a sinusoidal manner as a function of helix length, consistent with simulated data generated from models of oriented fluorophores separated by an inflexible helix. Analysis of the orientation dependence of FRET allowed us to demonstrate structural rigidification of the NiCo riboswitch upon transition metal-ion binding. This application of fluorescence turn-on aptamers opens the way to improved structural interpretation of ensemble and single-molecule FRET measurements of RNA.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Angular dependence of the transverse Raman scattering in KDP and DKDP in geometries suitable for beam polarization control

The angular dependance of the transverse Raman scattering in potassium dihydrogen phosphate (KDP) and its deuterated analogue (DKDP) for the entire range of crystal configurations suitable for laser beam polarization control has been investigated via experimental and modeling tools. This work was made possible by simultaneously rotating a spherical sample and the pump polarization to effectively measure the angular dependance of the transverse Raman signal in 360°. This novel method, which is applicable for the investigation of the Raman scattering in optically anisotropic materials, demonstrates that the spontaneous Raman scattering signal exhibits strong angular dependence that is modulated by depolarization and polarization rotation effects generated as the Raman signal traverses the material due to its birefringence. The results show that the total signal generated by the pump beam is the sum of the signals generated by the two components that have polarization parallel and orthogonal to the optic axis. The peak signal intensity, which is of importance for high-power laser applications, depends on the orientation of the optic axis and can vary by a factor of about 2. The excellent agreement between experimental data and modeling results validates the associated models and enables one to consider optimal crystal cut designs for specific applications.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Quantile-dependent expressivity of postprandial lipemia

“Quantile-dependent expressivity” describes an effect of the genotype that depends upon the level of the phenotype (e.g., whether a subject’s triglycerides are high or low relative to its population distribution). Prior analyses suggest that the effect of a genetic risk score (GRS) on fasting plasma triglyceride levels increases with the percentile of the triglyceride distribution. Postprandial lipemia is well suited for testing quantile-dependent expressivity because it exposes each individual’s genotype to substantial increases in their plasma triglyceride concentrations. Ninety-seven published papers were identified that plotted mean triglyceride response vs. time and genotype, which were converted into quantitative data. Separately, for each published graph, standard least-squares regression analysis was used to compare the genotype differences at time t (dependent variable) to average triglyceride concentrations at time t (independent variable) to assess whether the genetic effect size increased in association with higher triglyceride concentrations and whether the phenomenon could explain purported genetic interactions with sex, diet, disease, BMI, and drugs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Intergranular Spin Dependent Tunneling Dominated Magnetoresistance in Helimagnetic Manganese Phosphide Thin Films

Helical magnets are emerging as a novel class of materials for spintronics and sensor applications; however, research on their charge- and spin-transport properties in a thin film form is less explored. Herein, we report the temperature and magnetic field-dependent charge transport properties of a highly crystalline MnP nanorod thin film over a wide temperature range (2 K < T < 350 K). The MnP nanorod films of ~100 nm thickness were grown on Si substrates at 500 °C using molecular beam epitaxy. The temperature-dependent resistivity ρ(T) data exhibit a metallic behavior (dρ/dT > 0) over the entire measured temperature range. However, large negative magnetoresistance (Δρ/ρ) of up to 12% is observed below ~50 K at which the system enters a stable helical (screw) magnetic state. In this temperature regime, the Δρ(H)/ρ(0) dependence also shows a magnetic field-manipulated CONE + FAN phase coexistence. The observed magnetoresistance is dominantly governed by the intergranular spin dependent tunneling mechanism. These findings pinpoint a correlation between the transport and magnetism in this helimagnetic system.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Astrocyte FABP7 Modulates Seizure Activity-Dependent Protein Expression in Mouse Brain

Background/Objectives: Patients with epilepsy commonly experience patterns of seizures that change with sleep/wake behavior or diurnal rhythms. The cellular and molecular mechanisms that underlie these patterns in seizure activity are not well understood but may involve non-neuronal cells, such as astrocytes. Our previous studies show the critical importance of one specific astrocyte factor, the brain-type fatty acid binding protein Fabp7, in the regulation of time-of-day-dependent electroshock seizure threshold and neural activity-dependent gene expression in mice. Here, we examined whether Fabp7 influences differential seizure activity-dependent protein expression, by comparing Fabp7 knockout (KO) to wild-type (WT) mice under control conditions and after reaching the maximal electroshock seizure threshold (MEST). Methods: We analyzed the proteome in cortical–hippocampal extracts from MEST and SHAM groups of WT and KO mice using mass spectrometry (MS), followed by Gene Ontology (GO) and pathway analyses. GO and pathway analyses of all groups revealed a diverse set of up- and downregulated differentially expressed proteins (DEPs). Results: We identified 65 significant DEPs in the comparison of KO SHAM versus WT SHAM; 33 proteins were upregulated and 32 were downregulated. We found downregulation in mitochondrial-associated proteins in WT MEST compared to WT SHAM controls, including Slc1a4, Slc25a27, Cox7a2, Cox8a, Micos10, and Atp5mk. Several upregulated DEPs in the KO SHAM versus WT SHAM comparison were associated with the 20S proteasomal subunit, suggesting proteasomal activity is elevated in the absence of Fabp7 expression. We also observed 92 DEPs significantly altered in the KO MEST versus WT MEST, with 49 proteins upregulated and 43 downregulated. Conclusions: Together, these data suggest that the astrocyte Fabp7 regulation of time-of-day-mediated neural excitability is modulated by multiple cellular mechanisms, which include proteasomal pathways, independent of its role in activity-dependent gene expression.

Neural Excitability↗

The Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program: Corrections on Photometry Due to Wavelength-dependent Atmospheric Effects

Abstract Wavelength-dependent atmospheric effects impact photometric supernova flux measurements for ground-based observations. We present corrections on supernova flux measurements from the Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program’s 5YR sample (DES-SN5YR) for differential chromatic refraction (DCR) and wavelength-dependent seeing, and we show their impact on the cosmological parameters w and Ω m . We use g − i colors of Type Ia supernovae to quantify astrometric offsets caused by DCR and simulate point-spread functions (PSFs) using the GalSIM package to predict the shapes of the PSFs with DCR and wavelength-dependent seeing. We calculate the magnitude corrections and apply them to the magnitudes computed by the DES-SN5YR photometric pipeline. We find that for the DES-SN5YR analysis, not accounting for the astrometric offsets and changes in the PSF shape cause an average bias of +0.2 mmag and −0.3 mmag, respectively, with standard deviations of 0.7 mmag and 2.7 mmag across all DES observing bands ( griz ) throughout all redshifts. When the DCR and seeing effects are not accounted for, we find that w and Ω m are lower by less than 0.004 ± 0.02 and 0.001 ± 0.01, respectively, with 0.02 and 0.01 being the 1 σ statistical uncertainties. Although we find that these biases do not limit the constraints of the DES-SN5YR sample, future surveys with much higher statistics, lower systematics, and especially those that observe in the u band will require these corrections as wavelength-dependent atmospheric effects are larger at shorter wavelengths. We also discuss limitations of our method and how they can be better accounted for in future surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A search for time-dependent astrophysical neutrino emission with icecube data from 2012 to 2017

High-energy neutrinos are unique messengers of the high-energy universe, tracing the processes of cosmic ray acceleration. This work presents analyses focusing on time-dependent neutrino point-source searches. A scan of the whole sky, making no prior assumption about source candidates, is performed, looking for a space and time clustering of high-energy neutrinos in data collected by the IceCube Neutrino Observatory between 2012 and 2017. No statistically significant evidence for a time-dependent neutrino signal is found with this search during this period, as all results are consistent with the background expectation. Within this study period, the blazar 3C 279, showed strong variability, inducing a very prominent gamma-ray flare observed in 2015 June. This event motivated a dedicated study of the blazar, which consists of searching for a time-dependent neutrino signal correlated with the gamma-ray emission. No evidence for a time-dependent signal is found. Hence, an upper limit on the neutrino fluence is derived, allowing us to constrain a hadronic emission model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Dependence of the Fraction of Radio Luminous Quasars on Redshift and its Theoretical Implications

While radio emission in quasars can be contributed to by a variety of processes (involving star-forming regions, accretion disk coronas and winds, and jets), the powering of the radio loudest quasars must involve very strong jets, presumably launched by the Blandford–Znajek mechanism incorporating the magnetically arrested disk (MAD) scenario. Here, we focus on the latter and investigate the dependence of their fraction on redshift. We also examine the dependence of the radio-loud fraction (RLF) on BH mass ( M BH ) and Eddington ratio (λ Edd ), while excluding the redshift bias by narrowing its range. In both of these investigations, we remove the bias associated with: (1) the diversity of source selection by constructing two well-defined, homogeneous samples of quasars (first within 0.7 ≤ z ≤ 1.9, second within 0.5 ≤ z ≤ 0.7); and (2) a strong drop in the RLF of quasars at smaller BH masses by choosing those with BH masses larger than 10 8.5 M ⊙ . We confirm some of the previous results showing the increase in the fraction of radio-loud quasars with cosmic time and that this trend can be even steeper if we account for the bias introduced by the dependence of the RLF on BH mass, whereas the bias introduced by the dependence of the RLF on Eddington ratio is shown to be negligible. Assuming that quasar activities are triggered by galaxy mergers, we argue that such an increase can result from the slower drop with cosmic time of mixed mergers than of wet mergers.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Quantile-dependent expressivity of plasma adiponectin concentrations may explain its sex-specific heritability, gene-environment interactions, and genotype-specific response to postprandial lipemia

“Quantile-dependent expressivity” occurs when the effect size of a genetic variant depends upon whether the phenotype (e.g. adiponectin) is high or low relative to its distribution. We have previously shown that the heritability ( h 2 ) of adiposity, lipoproteins, postprandial lipemia, pulmonary function, and coffee and alcohol consumption are quantile-specific. Whether adiponectin heritability is quantile specific remains to be determined. Plasma adiponectin concentrations from 4,182 offspring-parent pairs and 1,662 sibships from the Framingham Heart Study were analyzed. Quantile-specific heritability from offspring-parent (β OP , h 2 = 2 β OP /(1 + r spouse )) and full-sib regression slopes ( β FS , h 2 = {(1 + 8r spouse β FS ) 0.05 -1}/(2r spouse )) were robustly estimated by quantile regression with nonparametric significance assigned from 1,000 bootstrap samples. Quantile-specific h 2 (± SE) increased with increasing percentiles of the offspring’s age- and sex-adjusted adiponectin distribution when estimated from β OP ( P trend = 2.2 × 10 -6 ): 0.30 ± 0.03 at the 10th, 0.33 ± 0.04 at the 25th, 0.43 ± 0.04 at the 50th, 0.55 ± 0.05 at the 75th, and 0.57 ± 0.08 at the 90th percentile, and when estimated from β FS (P trend = 7.6 × 10 -7 ): 0.42 ± 0.03 at the 10th, 0.44 ± 0.04 at the 25th, 0.56 ± 0.05 at the 50th, 0.73 ± 0.08 at the 75th, and 0.79 ± 0.11 at the 90th percentile. Consistent with quantile-dependent expressivity, adiponectin’s: (1) heritability was greater in women in accordance with their higher adiponection concentrations; (2) relationships to ADIPOQ polymorphisms were modified by adiposity in accordance with its adiponectin-lowering effect; (3) response to rosiglitazone was predicted by the 45T> G ADIPOQ polymorphism; (4) difference by ADIPOQ haplotypes increased linearly with increasing postprandial adiponectin concentrations. Adiponectin heritability is quantile dependent, which may explain sex-specific heritability, gene-environment and gene-drug interactions, and postprandial response by haplotypes.

Postprandial↗

TECHNICAL BACKGROUND FOR THE UPDATE AND EXTENSION OF THE TIME-DEPENDENT ALLOWABLE STRESSES OF TYPE 304H AND 316H STAINLESS STEELS

Type 304H and 316H stainless steels are codified in the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code for Section III, Division 5, Class A construction for up to 1500F (816C) and 300,000 hours. Extension of the design lifetimes to 500,000 hours has been undertaken by various research projects and by the ASME Section III, Division 5 Code Committees. Due to a long-standing issue related to non-classical creep behavior on the use of the time to the onset of tertiary creep as one of the time-dependent allowable stress criteria, little progress was made in the extension of the time-dependent allowable stresses for Type 304H and 316H stainless steels. A recent effort by Dabrow and Nestell (Impact of Tertiary Creep on Time Dependent Allowable Stresses for Type 304H and 316H Stainless Steels, Report 0300-0003-RPT-001, MPR Associates, Alexandria, VA, 2020) has provided a rational method for the treatment of the highly variable data for the time to onset of tertiary creep. In this paper, the background formulas for determining the time-dependent allowable stress values of Type 304H and 316H stainless steels, as assembled from relevant project work, are presented. These updates and extensions are being recommended to the ASME Code committees for approval, and are subject to change upon feedback from ASME Section III Code committees.

304/316 life extension↗

Evaluation of Thermal Scattering Law for U 3 Si 2 Using Temperature-Dependent Phonon Density of States

The thermal scattering law for uranium silicide, a candidate material for high-density nuclear fuel, was evaluated from the temperature-dependent phonon density of states obtained using the quasi-harmonic approximation. For uranium silicide model systems of various volumes near the equilibrium volume, Hellmann-Feynman forces were calculated by performing ab initio lattice dynamics simulations based on density functional theory. Subsequently, the quasi-harmonic approximation was applied by interpolating the results of the harmonic approximation for each volume system. As a sensitivity test, the phonon density of states was calculated for the structures with temperature-dependent volumes at 298 K and 1000 K, obtained by the quasi-harmonic approximation, and the corresponding thermal neutron scattering cross section was evaluated. The temperature-dependent volume and heat capacity of uranium silicide obtained by the quasi-harmonic approximation showed reasonable agreement with experimental data while lattice thermal expansion showed deviation from experimental observations. Thermal scattering cross sections evaluated from 0 K and temperature-dependent phonon density of states exhibited differences of up to 4.1% at 1000 K. This study examines the impact of temperature on the thermal scattering law, employing ab initio lattice dynamics simulations through the quasi-harmonic approximation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Temperature and illumination dependence of silicon heterojunction solar cells with a wide range of wafer resistivities

Abstract Recently, the significant improvements in the surface and contact passivation of silicon (Si) solar cells as well as their bulk quality have shifted their operating point to higher injections. Hence, they are less dependent on wafer doping. This shift opens an opportunity of using high‐resistivity wafers for practical photovoltaic applications, introducing a promising approach to push the cell efficiency towards the intrinsic limit and to improve the module reliability by increasing the cell breakdown voltage. Therefore, insights into the performance of Si solar cells using high‐resistivity wafers at various operating temperatures are of significant interest. In this study, we investigate the temperature‐ and illumination‐dependent performance of Si heterojunction (SHJ) solar cells using a wide range of wafer resistivities (between 3 and 1000 Ω⋅cm). Although a reduction in the passivation quality of the passivating contacts is observed at elevated temperature, the impact on the temperature coefficient of the open‐circuit voltage (TC V oc )—the dominant contributor to the temperature coefficient (TC) of the cell efficiency—is very limited. Their TC V oc are still dominated by the temperature dependence of the effective intrinsic carrier concentration. Furthermore, we also find that the investigated cells are more sensitive to temperature variation at lower illumination intensities. It is noteworthy that the efficiency of the cells fabricated using high‐resistivity wafers is comparable to that of the reference cells at any given temperature, highlighting the potential of using high‐resistivity wafers for solar cells.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Directional dependence of equilibrated TLD-400 chips in multiple radiation fields

Fielding of thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLDs) for measurement of photon radiation dose in experiments is the standard practice for γ-irradiation facilities, pulsed power x-ray facilities, and reactor facilities at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). Due to the high-dose experimental conditions and the mixed ( 1 n, γ) fields in these facilities, SNL radiation metrologists have historically used CaF 2 :Mn TLDs (also known as TLD-400). Recent inquiries to the radiation metrology staff have raised concerns that the aluminum-equilibrated TLD-400 chips may exhibit a directionally dependent response. The metrologists were asked whether the dose measured by the chip may be impacted by the angle of incidence on the equilibrated TLD. To provide a thorough answer to this query, a set of adjoint Monte Carlo radiation transport calculations was performed for three different equilibrated TLDs as well as bare TLD chips using the Integrated Tiger Series (ITS) code. The key feature of the adjoint calculations performed in this study is that each photon escaping the modeled geometry was tallied into angular bins to provide information on both the energy and angular dependence of the equilibrated chip. After the adjoint Monte Carlo calculations were completed, the resulting energy-dependent response function for each angular bin was convolved with multiple photon energy spectra representing various radiation facilities at SNL. The radiation facilities selected for analysis span a range of photon energies from approximately 1 keV up to approximately 20 MeV. Thus, the presented results are applicable to a wide variety of radiation facilities around the world. Although the bare TLD-400 chip was expected to display the largest variation due to the photon angle of impact on the dosimeter, the dosimeter with the thinnest aluminum equilibrator (SNL thin equilibrated TLD-400) was determined to have the biggest differential between the impact angle with the maximum dose ( D max ) and the impact angle with the minimum dose ( D min ). However, the SNL normal equilibrated TLD-400 chip demonstrated a dramatic reduction in that differential between maximum and minimum dose angles. The reduction in this differential is one of the dominant factors in experimenters’ choice to field these dosimeters at SNL radiation facilities. The results from the PNNL (Hanford) energy-flattening field capsule are consistent with the previous publications. The differential dose responses due to the photon impact angle indicate that experimenters should strive to field their TLD-400 dosimeters in a consistent manner to avoid additional uncertainty in the measurements based on dosimeter orientation.

Adjoint radiation transport↗

Excitation Intensity- and Size-Dependent Halide Photosegregation in CsPb(I 0.5 Br 0.5 ) 3 Perovskite Nanocrystals

Although broad consensus exists that photoirradiation of mixed-halide lead perovskites leads to anion segregation, no model today fully rationalizes all aspects of this near ubiquitous phenomenon. In this work, we quantitatively compare experimental, CsPb(I 0.5 Br 0.5 ) 3 nanocrystal (NC) terminal anion photosegregation stoichiometries and excitation intensity thresholds to a band gap-based, thermodynamic model of mixed-halide perovskite photosegregation. Mixed-halide NCs offer strict tests of theory given physical sizes, which dictate local photogenerated carrier densities. We observe that mixed-anion perovskite NCs exhibit significant robustness to photosegregation, with photosegregation propensity decreasing with decreasing NC size. Observed size- and excitation intensity-dependent photosegregation data agree with model predicted size- and excitation intensity-dependent terminal halide stoichiometries. Established correspondence between experiment and theory, in turn, suggests that mixed-halide perovskite photostabilities can be predicted a priori using local gradients of (empirical) Vegard’s law expressions of composition-dependent band gaps.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

California Trees Seasonally Use Augmented Water Sources: Water Isotope Tracking in a Groundwater‐Dependent Ecosystem

Sustainable groundwater management must account for the needs of groundwater dependent ecosystems. To understand the relationship of ecosystems and seasonal water use, we studied the stable isotope composition (δ 18 O and δ 2 H) of water in streamside trees in a semi-arid streamside environment (Livermore, California, USA). We sampled seven trees at two sites every other month from April 2024 through April 2025 for tree xylem stable water isotope signatures. These data were compared to potential source waters: precipitation, imported surface water, soil water and regional groundwaters. Large daily precipitation events were found to be isotopically similar to regional groundwater and were thus treated as one water source. A Bayesian mixing model using stable water isotopes was used to determine the ratios of these three potential source waters (small daily precipitation events, groundwater/large daily precipitation events and imported water) present in tree xylem water. On average, tree water sources include 32% imported water (SD = 9%), 35% small daily precipitation events (SD = 10%) and 33% groundwater (SD = 3%), with significant seasonal variation (t summer-winter = 30.8, p < 0.01), particularly drawing more imported water (more than 55%) in the summer. While small daily precipitation events contribute only 10% of the total precipitation in our dataset, it represents a third of water used by trees. In addition, while these ecosystems are designated as groundwater dependent ecosystems, the trees use approximately one third imported water and even more during dry summer months. This approach provides water managers with a practical tool for quantifying ecosystem water needs, supporting data-driven decisions and regulatory compliance. While California's Sustainable Groundwater Management Act emphasizes supporting groundwater dependent ecosystems, it allows flexibility in demonstrating benefits. In conclusion, our methodology provides a way to document that management actions (such as managed aquifer recharge with imported water) deliver measurable co-benefits to GDEs.

Geosciences↗

Skeletal model reduction with forced optimally time dependent modes

Skeletal model reduction based on local sensitivity analysis of time dependent systems is presented in which sensitivities are modeled by forced optimally time dependent (f-OTD) modes. The f-OTD factorizes the sensitivity coefficient matrix into a compressed format as the product of two skinny matrices, i.e. f-OTD modes and f-OTD coefficients. The modes create a low-dimensional, time dependent, orthonormal basis which capture the directions of the phase space associated with most dominant sensitivities. These directions highlight the instantaneous active species, and reaction paths. Evolution equations for the f-OTD modes and coefficients are derived, and the implementation of f-OTD for skeletal reduction is described. For demonstration, skeletal reduction is conducted of the constant pressure ethylene-air burning in a zero-dimensional reactor, and new reduced models are generated. The laminar flame speed, the ignition delay, and the extinction curve as predicted by the models are compared against some existing skeletal models in literature for the same detailed model. Finally, the results demonstrate the capability of f-OTD to eliminate unimportant reactions and species in a systematic, efficient and accurate manner.

42 ENGINEERING↗