Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “dependability modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Context-dependent coordination of TOR and SnRK1 signaling under carbon and nitrogen perturbations

Target of rapamycin (TOR) and sucrose non-fermenting 1–related protein kinase 1 (SnRK1) are conserved regulators of plant growth and metabolism and are often portrayed as functionally antagonistic under nutrient limitation. However, how this relationship operates across different nutrient contexts remains poorly defined. Here, we generated an Arabidopsis dual-reporter line that enables simultaneous monitoring of TOR and SnRK1 activities and profiled their dynamics under carbon and nitrogen perturbations. We found that TOR and SnRK1 activities overall exhibit a negative relationship during the transition from carbon starvation to carbon abundance; however, their temporal dynamics during that transition do not support a strictly inverse correlation. Under dark conditions, TOR activity is gradually repressed, while SnRK1 is initially repressed in the early hours and subsequently activated during extended darkness. During nitrogen starvation, TOR activity is progressively repressed, whereas SnRK1 is activated during early hours and then becomes repressed. In vitro , recombinant SnRK1α1 directly inhibits the activity of immunoprecipitated TOR (IP-TOR), whereas IP-TOR does not directly affect SnRK1α1 activity. Together, these results support a nutrient-dependent model in which TOR and SnRK1 are coordinated primarily by cellular metabolic status.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Angle-dependent in Situ Fast Flavor Transformations in Post-neutron-star-merger Disks

Abstract The remnant black hole–accretion disk system resulting from binary neutron star mergers has proven to be a promising site for synthesizing the heaviest elements via rapid neutron capture ( r -process). A critical factor in determining the full r -process pattern in these environments is the neutron richness of the ejecta, which is strongly influenced by neutrino interactions. One key ingredient shaping these interactions is fast neutrino flavor conversions (FFCs), which arise due to angular crossings in neutrino distributions and occur on nanosecond timescales. We present the first three-dimensional in situ angle-dependent modeling of FFCs in postmerger disks, implemented within general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics with Monte Carlo neutrino transport. Our results reveal that, by suppressing electron neutrinos, FFCs more efficiently cool the disk and weaken the early thermally driven wind. Less releptonization due to electron neutrino absorption makes this cooler wind more neutron rich, producing a more robust r -process at higher latitudes of the outflow. This study underscores the necessity of incorporating FFCs in realistic simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evolution of oxygen and stratification and their relationship in the North Pacific Ocean in CMIP6 Earth system models

Abstract. This study examines the linkages between the upper-ocean (0–200 m) oxygen (O2) content and stratification in the North Pacific Ocean using four Earth system models (ESMs), an ocean hindcast simulation, and an ocean reanalysis. The trends and variability in oceanic O2 content are driven by the imbalance between physical supply and biological demand. Physical supply is primarily controlled by ocean ventilation, which is responsible for the transport of O2-rich surface waters to the subsurface. Isopycnic potential vorticity (IPV), a quasi-conservative tracer proportional to density stratification that can be evaluated from temperature and salinity measurements, is used herein as a dynamical proxy for ocean ventilation. The predictability potential of the IPV field is evaluated through its information entropy. The results highlight a strong O2–IPV connection and somewhat higher (as compared to the rest of the basin) predictability potential for IPV across the tropical Pacific, where the El Niño–Southern Oscillation occurs. This pattern of higher predictability and strong anticorrelation between O2 and stratification is robust across multiple models and datasets. In contrast, IPV at mid-latitudes has low predictability potential and its center of action differs from that of O2. In addition, the locations of extreme events or hotspots may or may not differ between the two fields, with a strong model dependency, which persists in future projections. On the one hand, these results suggest that it may be possible to monitor ocean O2 in the tropical Pacific based on a few observational sites co-located with the more abundant IPV measurements; on the other, they lead us to question the robustness of the IPV–O2 relationship in the extratropics. The proposed framework helps to characterize and interpret O2 variability in relation to physical variability and may be especially useful in the analysis of new observation-based data products derived from the BGC-Argo float array in combination with the traditional but far more abundant Argo data.

Novi, Lyuba↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simulation and Development of the Radial Time Projection Chamber For the Bonus12 Experiment in CLAS12

Knowledge of the structure of nucleons (i.e. protons and neutrons) is a central topic of interest to nuclear/particle physicists. Much more is known about the structure of the proton than the neutron due to the lack of high-density free neutron targets. The Barely Off-shell Nucleon Structure experiment (BONuS12) at Jefferson Lab (JLab) is a second generation experiment upgraded/optimized to advance our knowledge of the neutron's structure using the deep-inelastic scattering of electrons off deuterium. Typically, since deuterium is a nuclear target, corrections for off-shell and nuclear binding effects must be taken into account in order to extract results on the neutron. These corrections are model-dependent and therefore have limited our success in extracting neutron information using deuterium targets. In the BONuS12 experiment, 10.6 GeV electrons are scattered off of a deuterium target. By detecting the low momentum spectator proton at backward angles, the uncertainty due to final state interactions is minimized. The goal of the experiment is to measure the ratio of the neutron to proton structure functions ($F^n_2/F^p_2$) as the Bjroken scaling variable x approaches 1. The newly designed Radial Time Projection Chamber (RTPC) for BONuS12 detects the spectator proton in coincidence with the scattered electron, which is detected in the CEBAF Large Acceptance Spectrometer (CLAS12). This work presents the simulation and development of the new BONuS12 RTPC. The design, construction, and testing of the Drift-gas Monitoring Sysytem (DMS) for the BONuS12 experiment is also described. The results of the DMS operation as well as the first preliminary data from the BONuS12 experimental run are given. Because the BONuS12 data analysis depends on CLAS12 working effectively, an effort to verify the CLAS12 operation with the extraction of the inclusive deep inelastic cross section from the first experiment in CLAS12 (Run Group A) will be presented.

Dzbenski, Nathan↗
DOE OSTI2021

Photoproduction of Lambda* Resonances using the CLAS Detector

This thesis presents the study of the reaction yp -> K^+Lambda* using the photo production data from the CLAS-g12 experiment performed in Hall B of Jefferson Laboratory. The decay of Lambda* resonances, Lambda(1520), Lambda(1670), and Lambda(1690), into two exclusive channels, Sigma+pi?and Sigma-pi+, is studied from the detected K+,pi+, and pi?particles. This work aims at understanding photoproduction mechanism to excited state baryons, and to facilitate phenomenological model predictions using precision experimental measurements. A good agreement is established for the Lambda(1520) differential cross sections with the previous CLAS measurements. The differential cross sections as a function of CM angle are extended to higher photon energies. Newly added are the differential cross sections as a function of invariant 4-momentum transfer, which is the natural variable to use for a theoretical model based on a Regge-exchange reaction mechanism. No new N* resonances decaying into the K+Lambda(1520) final state are found. The higher mass resonances, Lambda(1670)1/2- and Lambda(1690)3/2-, are studied for the first time using photoproduction. This work provides a model dependent preliminary cross sections for these excited states.

Shrestha, Utsav↗
DOE OSTI2024

Calibration of the DUNE Far Detector Using Cosmic-ray Muon Events

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) aims to set new limits on parameters associated with neutrino oscillations, neutrino astrophysics, and beyond the Standard Model (SM) searches such as nucleon decay. DUNE will quantify the magnitude of CP violation in the lepton sector, and determine the neutrino mass ordering. These benefit highly from the large target mass and excellent imaging, tracking, and particle identification capabilities of Liquid Argon Time Projection Chambers (LArTPCs). Detector calibration is essential to make precise physics measurements. For instance, accurate energy reconstruction is necessary for measuring many of the aforementioned quantities with the precision required for discovering new physics and fully exploiting the capabilities of the detector. Cosmic muons are a freely available natural source of calorimetric data and can be used for calibrating various detector parameters. This thesis provides an analysis of simulated cosmic-ray muon events generated with the Muon Simulation Underground (MUSUN) generator in the DUNE horizontal drift (HD) far detector (FD). The study focuses on analysing the energy and angular distribution of various classes of muon events, as well as characterising the different particles produced by cosmic muon interactions. The analysis of π0 → 2γ events within the cosmic-ray muon sample is presented in this thesis with a detailed study of reconstructing electromagnetic showers. The π0 mass is reconstructed within the DUNE FD, yielding a value of (136 ± 7) MeV/c2. Additionally, the thesis introduces methods for dE/dx calibration using simulated and reconstructed muon tracks. A calibration constant Ccal = (5.469 ± 0.003) × 10−3 ADC × tick/e is obtained through a model-dependent calibration process, where 1 tick corresponds to 500 ns of sampling time of an ADC. Furthermore, a calibration technique is presented, demonstrating precise translation from dQ/dx to dE/dx. This calibration method is applied to stopping muons, charged pions, and protons in the DUNE FD, addressing the measurement of energy loss in the detector volume. These are important calibrations of the DUNE FD and will contribute to achieving the exciting physics goals of the experiment.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

A study of the 2H(e, e ' p)X reaction at large 4-momentum transfers and high missing momenta

The short-range region (r < 1 fm) of the nucleon-nucleon potential may be studied via deuteron electro-disintegration. Such an experiment was done at Hall C of Jefferson Lab at 4-momentum transfers of Q^2 = 4.07 (GeV/c)^2 and reaching missing momenta up to 900 MeV/c. At such settings, complications arising from Meson Exchange Currents (MEC) and Isobar Currents are expected to be signifi cantly minimized, as well as Final State Interactions (FSI) at recoiling angles of ¿_Xq ~ 40 deg. This makes comparisons of experimental and theoretical cross sections less model dependent. A luminosity study was done to determine the reduction of liquid deuterium targets with increasing beam current. A 2.8% in the charge yield was found between 0 to 70 µA. Electron scattering from the walls of the target chamber was determined to be negligible, but caution was taken by considering scattering events away from the walls. A neutron was found to be contained in the missing mass spectrum for each missing momentum setting. Extraction of the deuteron total cross section is still on going.

Love, Shawn [California State Univ. (CalState), Lo↗
DOE OSTI2026

MARVEL Reactor Fuel Performance Report

The Microreactor Applications Research Validation and EvaLuation (MARVEL) project is producing a high temperature liquid metal-cooled nuclear test bed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to ultimately improve the integration of microreactors to end-user applications. This ambitious effort seeks to design, authorize, construct, test, and operate the reactor within five years. In order to construct and operate the MARVEL reactor in a timely manner, the system will utilize materials and component designs which have already been used, qualified, or licensed from previous reactors. The MARVEL reactor will be located at the INL Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility in the north high-bay equipment pit and will use the existing 304 stainless steel-clad U-ZrH1.6 pin-type fuel system developed by General Atomics and purchased from TRIGA International. This fuel has been previously qualified under the United States Department of Energy’s (US DOE) Reduced Enrichment for Research and Test Reactors (RERTR) Program. Even though the regulator of the MARVEL reactor is the US DOE, the standards and overall approach recommended by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is well-defined and utilized here. Following NUREG-1537 regulatory guidance, this report documents the authorization case for the MARVEL fuel system’s application to MARVEL and establishes stable and predictable fuel performance during the most thermophysically unfavorable conditions achievable in the MARVEL reactor. To that end, this report provides a comprehensive survey of the known thermophysical properties, performance, and quantitative relationships associated with the MARVEL reactor fuel element and uses this information to determine its mechanical integrity and risk of reaching unacceptable conditions during the most extreme accident scenarios predicted for the reactor using the most conservative assumptions available. The information contained herein is compiled from a combination of historical reports and peer reviewed scientific publication manuscripts. Known mechanisms under which the fuel is susceptible to failure are highlighted and compared to conditions that could exist in the MARVEL reactor during an unanticipated transient or accident scenario. The two scenarios considered for analysis in this report are (1) an unprotected loss of flow accident and (2) a hypothetical unprotected loss of coolant accident during the loss of flow accident. Preliminary 2D steady-state analyses herein indicate that both fuel-cladding chemical interactions and fuel-cladding mechanical interactions are negligible throughout the fuel’s operational cycle under both normal and high temperature accident scenario conditions. Although higher fidelity 3D time-dependent modeling and simulations are planned, the following may be concluded presently. The MARVEL fuel element maintains its geometric stability and structural integrity during the most extreme accident scenarios predicted for the MARVEL reactor. The hoop stress during the unprotected loss of flow accident reaches about -1.27 MPa; this negative stress indicates that it is compressive rather than tensile. The compressive stress is a result of the NaK pressure on the outside of the fuel element, caused by the restricted thermal expansion of the NaK coolant, exceeding the internal pressures generated inside of the fuel element. The hoop stress generated in the cladding during the unprotected loss of coolant accident reaches a maximum of about approximately 10 MPa, which is nearly an order of magnitude less than the predicted yield strength of the cladding under high-temperature accident scenario conditions. Calculations were compared with results from high performance computational simulations using BISON and are in very close agreement. A conservative MARVEL fuel meat peak temperature limit of 900 °C is recommended presently, which is about 180 °C higher than the peak fuel temperature predicted to occur during the most extreme accident. Based on the known properties and behavior of the MARVEL fuel element, the fuel successfully meets its design and safety requirements under normal and most extreme accident conditions with a large safety margin.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Across the Scales of the Nucleus: Understanding Short Range Correlations from Medium Modification to Probe Independence

The atomic nucleus presents an intricate system due to the non-linear forces described by Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD) that govern its structure. The range of scales involved is remarkable; the most massive nuclei weigh approximately five orders of magnitude more than the quarks that compose them. The nucleus can be analyzed at various levels, from quarks to hadrons to the nucleus as a whole. Short-Range Correlations (SRCs) within the nucleus play a significant role that spans these diverse scales. At the most fundamental level, SRCs influence the interaction between nucleons. The nucleon-nucleon (NN) interaction, arising from QCD, is crucial in determining nuclear properties. SRCs serve as valuable probes for measuring this NN interaction, as the nucleons within SRCs become effectively decoupled from the rest of the nucleus. Multiple experimental techniques, including electron scattering, have been employed to investigate the NN interaction through SRCs. However, our first project demonstrates that inclusive measurements alone are inadequate to constrain this interaction fully. Moving to the scale of the nucleus, SRCs contribute to the high-momentum tail of the nuclear spectral function. While the low-momentum region is characterized by nucleons exhibiting bulk properties, nucleons begin to pair into SRCs at higher momenta. Our research aims to bridge the understanding between the mean-field portion of the nucleus and its high-momentum SRC components. Additionally, SRCs affect the quark structure of protons, as evidenced by the EMC effect, which indicates that quarks behave differently when protons are embedded within a nucleus—an effect referred to as medium modification. This thesis explores the correlation between SRCs and medium modification across various experimental setups. Finally, we seek to establish an interpretation of the nuclear ground state. Accomplishing this requires demonstrating that our SRC observables are independent of the probe’s scale and scheme. The concluding project of this thesis illustrates how we utilize triple coincidence quasi-elastic scattering across a range of (Q2) values to develop a model-dependent framework for understanding SRC distributions within the nucleus’s ground-state wavefunction.

Denniston, A. W. Denniston [University of Tel Aviv↗
DOE OSTI2021

Skeletal model reduction with forced optimally time dependent modes

Skeletal model reduction based on local sensitivity analysis of time dependent systems is presented in which sensitivities are modeled by forced optimally time dependent (f-OTD) modes. The f-OTD factorizes the sensitivity coefficient matrix into a compressed format as the product of two skinny matrices, i.e. f-OTD modes and f-OTD coefficients. The modes create a low-dimensional, time dependent, orthonormal basis which capture the directions of the phase space associated with most dominant sensitivities. These directions highlight the instantaneous active species, and reaction paths. Evolution equations for the f-OTD modes and coefficients are derived, and the implementation of f-OTD for skeletal reduction is described. For demonstration, skeletal reduction is conducted of the constant pressure ethylene-air burning in a zero-dimensional reactor, and new reduced models are generated. The laminar flame speed, the ignition delay, and the extinction curve as predicted by the models are compared against some existing skeletal models in literature for the same detailed model. Finally, the results demonstrate the capability of f-OTD to eliminate unimportant reactions and species in a systematic, efficient and accurate manner.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Time-Dependent Surrogates of Additive-Manufactured Nuclear Fuels Processes

Additive manufacturing (AM) technology is being increasingly adopted in a wide variety of application areas for its ability to rapidly produce, prototype, and customize designs. Recently, a hybrid AM technique was successfully developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to manufacture nuclear fuels [1]. Despite the advantages, this AM technique needs optimization due to defects from a highly complex melting and sintering process. The complex metallurgical phenomena during AM processes are strongly related to parameters such as applied laser power, traveling speed, and scan style, which could lead to differences in density, residual stress, crystallographic texture, and mechanical properties. In addition, stochastic variations in laser energy interaction and associated multiscale/multiphysics phenomena cause variations in microstructure evolution and mechanical properties. Currently, researchers at INL are focusing on developing a comprehensive modeling framework, leveraging INL’s simulation tools MOOSE/MARMOT/BISON/RAVEN [2-4] to describe all steps of this AM process across multiple length scales. Although this advanced framework plays a critical role in enabling enhancements to traditional trial and error approaches for design and optimization of nuclear fuel materials, it remains computationally intense, limiting its use in sensitivity and optimization analysis. In this case, an accurate and inexpensive surrogate becomes an effective tool for providing a tractable approximation of the underlying underline physics. Surrogate models generally not based on the physics of a system are purely mathematical models used to capture the relationships between specific system inputs and outputs. Popular approaches, including neural networks [5], response surfaces [6], and subspace-based reduced order models [7], have been applied to a wide range of disciplines, such as nuclear reactor design, aerospace design and automotive design. In this summary, we employ advanced time-dependent surrogate models such as high-dimensional model representation (HDMR) [8] and physics-informed deep neural network (PINNs) [9] to accelerate the design and optimization of AM process.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling the Environment-Dependent Kinetics of Oxygen Reduction Reaction – a Continuum Model for Electric Double Layer

Here, for proton-exchange-membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) to achieve broad commercialization, improved energy-conversion efficiency with minimal Pt-based electrocatalyst is required. Because the sluggish rate of oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) limits the efficiency of PEMFCs, the efficiency improvement requires a better understanding of ORR kinetics and mechanism to design better catalyst. To understand the ORR mechanism, theoretical and experimental analyses have been conducted. While previous studies reasonably explained the catalyst-dependent activity on single crystal catalysts in 0.1 M perchloric acid solution, the explicit effect of electrolyte and related microenvironments is not thoroughly understood. The change in the electrolyte alters the electric-double-layer (EDL) structure and thus the local microenvironment at the electrode/electrolyte interface. Thus, the structure of the EDL should be carefully analyzed to uncover the electrolyte-dependent reaction kinetics. In this talk, we propose a multiscale continuum model to predict the EDL structure and examine the effect of perchloric acid concentration on ORR activity on Pt (111). The model includes Density Potential Functional Theory (DPFT) for electron density and Modified Poisson Boltzmann equation for species’ density and electric potential. Also, the interaction between adsorbents and electric field is taken into account by minimizing the grand potential. After model validation with experimentally measured double-layer capacity data as a function of applied potential and concentration, the effect of the perchloric acid concentration (0.02 M – 0.2 M) on ORR activity is analyzed and discussed. It is shown that the model reproduces the specific activity obtained in the experiments when assuming the oxygen adsorption is limiting the rate, which can be attributed to the large energetic barrier for solvent reorganization. Then, extension of the model to PEMFC ionomer electrolytes will be introduced. Overall, the model framework and findings provide insights into the ORR mechanism and guidance on how to tailor catalyst materials for increased PEMFC performance.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting the Pseudocapacitive Windows for MXene Electrodes with Voltage-Dependent Cluster Expansion Models

MXene transition-metal carbides and nitrides are of growing interest for energy storage applications. These compounds are especially promising for use as pseudocapacitive electrodes due to their ability to convert energy electrochemically at fast rates. Using voltage-dependent cluster expansion models, we predict the charge storage performance of MXene pseudocapacitors for a range of electrode compositions. M 3 C 2 O 2 electrodes based on group-VI transition metals have up to 80% larger areal energy densities than prototypical titanium-based (e.g., Ti 3 C 2 O 2 ) MXene electrodes. We attribute this high pseudocapacitance to the Faradaic voltage windows of group-VI MXene electrodes, which are predicted to be 1.2 to 1.8 times larger than those of titanium-based MXenes. The size of the pseudocapacitive voltage window increases with the range of oxidation states that are accessible to the MXene transition metals. Here, by similar mechanisms, the presence of multiple ions in the solvent (Li + and H + ) leads to sharp changes in the transition-metal oxidation states and can significantly increase the charge capacity of MXene pseudocapacitors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Time-dependent collisional radiative modeling of tungsten in the magnetic sheath for erosion diagnosis

Abstract Tungsten is the material of choice for the divertors in ITER, SPARC and future fusion reactors. Accurate diagnosis of tungsten erosion and migration is important for first wall life time, slag production and core performance. The addition of a magnetic presheath requires time-dependent collisional radiative effects to be included for accurate neutral tungsten collisional radiative modeling. Gross erosion measurements could be modified by a factor of 10 due to the inclusion of time-dependent effects for ITER relevant divertor conditions. A simple sputtering model and sheath density model are developed to investigate time-dependent collisional radiative effects. Neutral tungsten spectral lines populated from different metastable levels depend on model parameters leading to potential spectroscopic diagnostics of plasma parameters. Electron temperatures inferred from spectroscopic line ratios are in agreement with Langmuir probe measurements in the Compact Toroidal Hybrid.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Prototype Thick-Target Bremsstrahlung Model with Angularly-Dependent Emission in the MCNP6 ® Code

This document summarizes the current thick-target bremsstrahlung (TTB) model in MCNP and provides test results for an alternative implementation to improve the accuracy with reduced cost compared to full electron transport. It has been observed that the current TTB model produces inaccurate results in problems where the medium is thick with respect to electrons, but the photon distribution in the problem has a strong directionality. An example of such a simulation is detectors surrounding a metal target irradiated with a radiographic beam of high energy photons. The primary cause of this discrepancy is the current TTB method emits all bremsstrahlung photons in the same direction as the primary electron produced from each (γ, e ± ) interaction, leading to artificially forward peaked photon distributions for intermediate to high-energy incident photons. To improve the TTB model, we have implemented an angularly-dependent TTB model in a developer version of the MCNP6 ® code; for developers, this was done on the branch prototype/angular_ttb in the mcnp6 repo on bitbucket. The angularly-dependent TTB model accounts for the energy and scattering of electrons as they slow down in the current material, but does not sample the computationally expensive energy straggling, secondary electron events, and tracking electrons; this approach is significantly less computationally expensive than full electron transport and can be comparable to the original TTB method for problems with sufficiently complex materials and geometry. To evaluate the method, we have modeled a simple problem of a beam of 5 MeV photons incident on a sphere of plutonium surrounded by detectors at different deflection angles. For this problem, the angularly-dependent TTB produces a photon flux within 8.0% for a 90 degree deflection angle and 0.8% along the beam axis, as compared to the electron transport solution. This is an improvement compared to a 43% and 81% discrepancy with the original TTB method, respectively. The rest of this work includes the following: the first section details the current TTB treatment in MCNP, which has not been well documented elsewhere. Then, the modified TTB algorithm is detailed and the approximations compared to the condensed history algorithm are compared. Results are given comparing the two TTB methods to the condensed history transport algorithm. The appendix includes details for code developers on relevant electron transport implementation details and potential code improvements for future work.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predicting responses to climate change using a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance model

Abstract Predicting the effects of warming temperatures on the abundance and distribution of organisms under future climate scenarios often requires extrapolating species–environment correlations to climatic conditions not currently experienced by a species, which can result in unrealistic predictions. For poikilotherms, incorporating species' thermal physiology to inform extrapolations under novel thermal conditions can result in more realistic predictions. Furthermore, models that incorporate species and spatial dependencies may improve predictions by capturing correlations present in ecological data that are not accounted for by predictor variables. Here, we present a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance (jsPGA) model for predicting multispecies responses to climate warming. The jsPGA model uses a basis function approach to capture both species and spatial dependencies. We apply the jsPGA model to predict the response of eight fish species to projected climate warming in thousands of lakes in Minnesota, USA. By the end of the century, the cold‐adapted species was predicted to have high probabilities of extirpation across its current range—with 10% of lakes currently inhabited by this species having an extirpation probability >0.90. The remaining species had varying levels of predicted changes in abundance, reflecting differences in their thermal physiology. Though the model did not identify many strong species dependencies, the variation in estimated spatial dependence across species suggested that accounting for both dependencies was important for predicting the abundance of these fishes. The jsPGA model provides a new tool for predicting changes in the abundance, distribution, and extirpation probability of poikilotherms under novel thermal conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Local structure graph models with higher-order dependence

Local structure graph models (LSGMs) describe random graphs and networks as a Markov random field (MRF)—each graph edge has a specified conditional distribution dependent on explicit neighbourhoods of other graph edges. Centered parameterizations of LSGMs allow for direct control and interpretation of parameters for large- and small-scale structures (e.g., marginal means vs. dependence). Here, we extend this parameterization to account for triples of dependent edges and illustrate the importance of centered parameterizations for incorporating covariates and interpreting parameters. Using a MRF framework, common exponential random graph models are also shown to induce conditional distributions without centered parameterizations and thereby have undesirable features. This work attempts to advance graph models through conditional model specifications with modern parameterizations, covariates and higher-order dependencies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pseudospectral particle-in-cell formulation with arbitrary charge and current-density time dependencies for the modeling of relativistic plasmas

This paper introduces a formulation of the particle-in-cell (PIC) method for the modeling of relativistic plasmas, that leverages the ability of the pseudospectral analytical time-domain solver (PSATD) to handle arbitrary time dependencies of the charge and current densities during one PIC cycle (applied to second-order polynomial dependencies here). Here, the formulation is applied to a modified set of Maxwell's equations that was proposed earlier in the context of divergence cleaning, and to recently proposed extensions of the PSATD-PIC algorithm. Detailed analysis and testings revealed that, under some condition, the formulation can expand the range of numerical parameters under which PIC simulations are stable and accurate when modeling relativistic plasmas such as, e.g., plasma-based particle accelerators.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗