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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1984

Prospects for the Voyager extra-planetary and interstellar mission

An advance study has been conducted to examine the trajectory characteristics of Voyager 1 and 2 as they depart from the solar system and traverse interstellar space. A survey of the extraplanetary phase, commencing with completion of the final planetary encounters and ceasing with loss of spacecraft communication, considers the trajectory aspects attendant to a heliospheric investigation and possible sensing of a trans-Neptunian massive body. An analysis of departure telecommunications capability attempts to bound the inevitable time of communication loss. A study of the interstellar phase examines closest approaches of the spacecraft to the sun's stellar neighbours. A covariance analysis is provided to illustrate the statistical effect of stellar state uncertainties on these approaches. In addition to the Voyager spacecraft, data for Pioneers 10 and 11 are provided where appropriate.

Cesarone, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS1988

A flexible telemetry processor for spacecraft testing

In the past, telemetry data systems in support of JPL flight projects were designed specifically for each mission. The Magellan System Test Data Processing Subsystem (STDPS) marks a departure from these past designs. For the first time, a reusable telemetry-processing subsystem has been designed that is flexible enough to meet the spacecraft-testing requirements of the present project, and can be easily changed for future projects as well. These changes are all accomplished through a user-friendly, menu-oriented interface. Extensive software reprogramming is no longer required.

Leng, Christopher↗
NASA NTRS2012

Computational Study of the Impact of Unsteadiness on the Aerodynamic Performance of a Variable- Speed Power Turbine

The design-point and off-design performance of an embedded 1.5-stage portion of a variable-speed power turbine (VSPT) was assessed using Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) analyses with mixing-planes and sector-periodic, unsteady RANS analyses. The VSPT provides one means by which to effect the nearly 50 percent main-rotor speed change required for the NASA Large Civil Tilt-Rotor (LCTR) application. The change in VSPT shaft-speed during the LCTR mission results in blade-row incidence angle changes of as high as 55 . Negative incidence levels of this magnitude at takeoff operation give rise to a vortical flow structure in the pressure-side cove of a high-turn rotor that transports low-momentum flow toward the casing endwall. The intent of the effort was to assess the impact of unsteadiness of blade-row interaction on the time-mean flow and, specifically, to identify potential departure from the predicted trend of efficiency with shaft-speed change of meanline and 3-D RANS/mixing-plane analyses used for design.

Welch, Gerard E.↗
NASA NTRS2016

ICN Deicing Operations Analysis

Aircraft deicing and anti-icing on airport ground in winter weather conditions is important to ensure safe departure takeoff and enroute flying. At the same time, it imposes additional workload to controllers and airport operators, and causes delays to airlines and passengers.This presentation shows the initial results of analyzing the deicing related operations at Incheon International Airport (ICN). It describes the deicing operations concept, procedures, and deicing making processes at ICN. It also looks into the three-month ICN operation data from Dec 2015 to Feb 2016 to identify the characteristics of the current day deicing operation.This work is under the joint collaboration between Korea Aerospace Research Institute and NASA. The objective is to develop a deicing operation simulation capability in NASA's fast time simulation environment to study and improve deicing operations efficiency.

Airport Surface ATM↗
NASA NTRS2023

Evaluation of a Regional Crop Model Implementation for Sub-National Yield Assessments in Kenya

CONTEXT: Cropping system models can be used to both assess regional food security and to monitor and predict agricultural drought. Agriculture in Kenya is extremely important to both the economy and food security of the country. OBJECTIVE: This study evaluated a regional implementation of a widely used crop model, the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT), within a coupled modeling framework, the Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System (RHEAS), over Kenya. The goal of this study was to assess the ability of RHEAS to simulate the annual variability of maize yields at the county level and evaluate the uncertainty inherent in the model and inputs. METHODS: The RHEAS system implements a stochastic ensemble approach to account for field scale variabilities in crop management practices and underlying soil and weather conditions. Satellite-derived datasets were used to evaluate the land surface component of the system and seasonally disaggregated yield for 5 years was used to assess the performance of the cropping system model. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The median correlation between RHEAS and satellite-derived soil moisture and evapotranspiration estimates were 0.78, and 0.51, respectively, indicating that the model is able to capture the key drivers of the hydrological budget. Overall, RHEAS simulated yearly yield variations with a median correlation of 0.7 with reported yields, with the best performance in the short rains season. However, across both seasons, the RHEAS model was positively biased on the order of ~1.6 MT/ha. The overall median unbiased RMSE was 0.66 MT/ha. The RHEAS system shows skill at simulating extreme departures in anomalies, and a majority of the time (62.5%) the reported yields fall within the interquartile range of the simulations. SIGNIFICANCE: One of the most important areas of improvement for the next generation of agricultural data and models is to better understand and communicate the inherent uncertainties. This is especially critical in data-limited regions. Here we present a modeling system and its implementation that begins to address these concerns. We demonstrate the ability to simulate broad trends in yields at the county level for sub-annual yields with skills that commensurate previous national/annual level studies.

Crop model↗
NASA NTRS2013

Effects of Airport Tower Controller Decision Support Tool on Controllers Head-Up Time

Despite that aircraft positions and movements can be easily monitored on the radar displays at major airports nowadays, it is still important for the air traffic control tower (ATCT) controllers to look outside the window as much as possible to assure safe operations of traffic management. The present paper investigates whether an introduction of the NASA's proposed Spot and Runway Departure Advisor (SARDA), a decision support tool for the ATCT controller, would increase or decrease the controllers' head-up time. SARDA provides the controller departure-release schedule advisories, i.e., when to release each departure aircraft in order to minimize individual aircraft's fuel consumption on taxiways and simultaneously maximize the overall runway throughput. The SARDA advisories were presented on electronic flight strips (EFS). To investigate effects on the head-up time, a human-in-the-loop simulation experiment with two retired ATCT controller participants was conducted in a high-fidelity ATCT cab simulator with 360-degree computer-generated out-the-window view. Each controller participant wore a wearable video camera on a side of their head with the camera facing forward. The video data were later used to calculate their line of sight at each moment and eventually identify their head-up times. Four sessions were run with the SARDA advisories, and four sessions were run without (baseline). Traffic-load levels were varied in each session. The same set of user interface - EFS and the radar displays - were used in both the advisory and baseline sessions to make them directly comparable. The paper reports the findings and discusses their implications.

airport surface operations↗
NASA NTRS2013

Optimal Integration of Departures and Arrivals in Terminal Airspace

Coordination of operations with spatially and temporally shared resources, such as route segments, fixes, and runways, improves the efficiency of terminal airspace management. Problems in this category are, in general, computationally difficult compared to conventional scheduling problems. This paper presents a fast time algorithm formulation using a non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA). It was first applied to a test problem introduced in existing literature. An experiment with a test problem showed that new methods can solve the 20 aircraft problem in fast time with a 65% or 440 second delay reduction using shared departure fixes. In order to test its application in a more realistic and complicated problem, the NSGA algorithm was applied to a problem in LAX terminal airspace, where interactions between 28% of LAX arrivals and 10% of LAX departures are resolved by spatial separation in current operations, which may introduce unnecessary delays. In this work, three types of separations - spatial, temporal, and hybrid separations - were formulated using the new algorithm. The hybrid separation combines both temporal and spatial separations. Results showed that although temporal separation achieved less delay than spatial separation with a small uncertainty buffer, spatial separation outperformed temporal separation when the uncertainty buffer was increased. Hybrid separation introduced much less delay than both spatial and temporal approaches. For a total of 15 interacting departures and arrivals, when compared to spatial separation, the delay reduction of hybrid separation varied between 11% or 3.1 minutes and 64% or 10.7 minutes corresponding to an uncertainty buffer from 0 to 60 seconds. Furthermore, as a comparison with the NSGA algorithm, a First-Come-First-Serve based heuristic method was implemented for the hybrid separation. Experiments showed that the results from the NSGA algorithm have 9% to 42% less delay than the heuristic method with varied uncertainty buffer sizes.

terminal airspace↗
NASA NTRS2010

Tactical Conflict Detection in Terminal Airspace

Air traffic systems have long relied on automated short-term conflict prediction algorithms to warn controllers of impending conflicts (losses of separation). The complexity of terminal airspace has proven difficult for such systems as it often leads to excessive false alerts. Thus, the legacy system, called Conflict Alert, which provides short-term alerts in both en-route and terminal airspace currently, is often inhibited or degraded in areas where frequent false alerts occur, even though the alerts are provided only when an aircraft is in dangerous proximity of other aircraft. This research investigates how a minimal level of flight intent information may be used to improve short-term conflict detection in terminal airspace such that it can be used by the controller to maintain legal aircraft separation. The flight intent information includes a site-specific nominal arrival route and inferred altitude clearances in addition to the flight plan that includes the RNAV (Area Navigation) departure route. A new tactical conflict detection algorithm is proposed, which uses a single analytic trajectory, determined by the flight intent and the current state information of the aircraft, and includes a complex set of current, dynamic separation standards for terminal airspace to define losses of separation. The new algorithm is compared with an algorithm that imitates a known en-route algorithm and another that imitates Conflict Alert by analysis of false-alert rate and alert lead time with recent real-world data of arrival and departure operations and a large set of operational error cases from Dallas/Fort Worth TRACON (Terminal Radar Approach Control). The new algorithm yielded a false-alert rate of two per hour and an average alert lead time of 38 seconds.

Tang, Huabin↗
NASA NTRS1986

Ground-based time-guidance algorithm for control of airplanes in a time-metered air traffic control environment: A piloted simulation study

The rapidly increasing costs of flight operations and the requirement for increased fuel conservation have made it necessary to develop more efficient ways to operate airplanes and to control air traffic for arrivals and departures to the terminal area. One concept of controlling arrival traffic through time metering has been jointly studied and evaluated by NASA and ONERA/CERT in piloted simulation tests. From time errors attained at checkpoints, airspeed and heading commands issued by air traffic control were computed by a time-guidance algorithm for the pilot to follow that would cause the airplane to cross a metering fix at a preassigned time. These tests resulted in the simulated airplane crossing a metering fix with a mean time error of 1.0 sec and a standard deviation of 16.7 sec when the time-metering algorithm was used. With mismodeled winds representing the unknown in wind-aloft forecasts and modeling form, the mean time error attained when crossing the metering fix was increased and the standard deviation remained approximately the same. The subject pilots reported that the airspeed and heading commands computed in the guidance concept were easy to follow and did not increase their work load above normal levels.

Knox, C. E.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Characteristics of ageostrophic flow in the vicinity of a severe weather outbreak - AVE-SESAME I

GOES satellite data was used to examine the ageostrophic flow in the vicinity of severe weather outbreaks along the Red River between Texas and Oklahoma in April 1979. The observations were part of the NASA AVE-SESAME I data on atmospheric states close to severe weather conditions. The Barnes Objective Analysis Technique was employed to analyze the data on a 100 km grid. The ageostrophic wind was defined on a regional scale from satellite data on different levels of cloud wind vectors, with a height change signalling a short-wave system in a long-wave trough. The percentage of deviation of the subgeostrophic winds from the geostrophic wind was calculated, and maximum departure corresponded with the region of greatest storm development. Time cross sections of additions to the ageostrophic flow were made as a function of pressure at 100 mb intervals from 900-100 mb. The ageostrophic acceleration was consistently twice the geostrophic acceleration.

Arnold, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS2013

NextGen Flight Deck Surface Trajectory-Based Operations (STBO): Contingency Holds

The purpose of this pilot-in-the-loop taxi simulation was to investigate a NextGen Surface Trajectory-Based Operations (STBO) concept called "contingency holds." The contingency-hold concept parses a taxi route into segments, allowing an air traffic control (ATC) surface traffic management (STM) system to hold an aircraft when necessary for safety. Under nominal conditions, if the intersection or active runway crossing is clear, the hold is removed, allowing the aircraft to continue taxiing without slowing, thus improving taxi efficiency, while minimizing the excessive brake use, fuel burn, and emissions associated with stop-and-go taxi. However, when a potential traffic conflict exists, the hold remains in place as a fail-safe mechanism. In this departure operations simulation, the taxi clearance included a required time of arrival (RTA) to a specified intersection. The flight deck was equipped with speed-guidance avionics to aid the pilot in safely meeting the RTA. On two trials, the contingency hold was not released, and pilots were required to stop. On two trials the contingency hold was released 15 sec prior to the RTA, and on two trials the contingency hold was released 30 sec prior to the RTA. When the hold remained in place, all pilots complied with the hold. Results also showed that when the hold was released at 15-sec or 30-sec prior to the RTA, the 30-sec release allowed pilots to maintain nominal taxi speed, thus supporting continuous traffic flow; whereas, the 15-sec release did not. The contingency-hold concept, with at least a 30-sec release, allows pilots to improve taxiing efficiency by reducing braking, slowing, and stopping, but still maintains safety in that no pilots "busted" the clearance holds. Overall, the evidence suggests that the contingency-hold concept is a viable concept for optimizing efficiency while maintaining safety.

NextGen↗
NASA NTRS1973

Single thrust period missions to Uranus for unmanned nuclear-electric propulsion systems

The effects of trip time, propulsion time, and specific powerplant mass are studied for optimized unmanned probe spacecraft on missions to Uranus with nuclear-electric propulsion systems. Electric propulsion is confined to a single thrust period at the beginning of each mission. Mission profiles include both high-thrust and electric-propulsion Earth-departure modes for planet flyby and orbital capture. Effects of propulsion time and propulsion system parameters are evaluated, and typical design features of the nuclear-electric spacecraft are outlined. Payload capability comparisons are made with systems employing ballistic transfer and solar-electric propulsion.

Zola, C. L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Frequency Correction for MIRO Chirp Transformation Spectroscopy Spectrum

This software processes the flyby spectra of the Chirp Transform Spectrometer (CTS) of the Microwave Instrument for Rosetta Orbiter (MIRO). The tool corrects the effect of Doppler shift and local-oscillator (LO) frequency shift during the flyby mode of MIRO operations. The frequency correction for CTS flyby spectra is performed and is integrated with multiple spectra into a high signal-to-noise averaged spectrum at the rest-frame RF frequency. This innovation also generates the 8 molecular line spectra by dividing continuous 4,096-channel CTS spectra. The 8 line spectra can then be readily used for scientific investigations. A spectral line that is at its rest frequency in the frame of the Earth or an asteroid will be observed with a time-varying Doppler shift as seen by MIRO. The frequency shift is toward the higher RF frequencies on approach, and toward lower RF frequencies on departure. The magnitude of the shift depends on the flyby velocity. The result of time-varying Doppler shift is that of an observed spectral line will be seen to move from channel to channel in the CTS spectrometer. The direction (higher or lower frequency) in the spectrometer depends on the spectral line frequency under consideration. In order to analyze the flyby spectra, two steps are required. First, individual spectra must be corrected for the Doppler shift so that individual spectra can be superimposed at the same rest frequency for integration purposes. Second, a correction needs to be applied to the CTS spectra to account for the LO frequency shifts that are applied to asteroid mode.

Lee, Seungwon↗
NASA NTRS2019

Cloud Computing Methods for Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit Trajectory Design

Complicated mission design problems require innovative computational solutions. As spacecraft depart from a proposed Gateway in a Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit (NRHO), recontact analysis is required to avoid risk of collision and ensure safe operations. Escape dynamics from NRHOs are governed by multiple gravitational bodies, yielding a trajectory design space that is exhaustively large. This paper summarizes the recontact analysis for departure from the NRHO and describes how the Deep Space Trajectory Explorer (DSTE) trajectory design software incorporates high performance cloud computing to compute and visualize the orbit design space. Recent focus on exploration missions to cislunar space has kindled accelerated interest in multibody orbit solutions. Trajectory analysis in the presence of multiple gravity fields is complex, and innovative computational tools are needed to simplify complicated design spaces, to generate large quantities of data quickly, and to visualize the output for user accessibility. The Gateway mission is a prime example. The Gateway1 is proposed as a human outpost in deep space. The current baseline orbit for the Gateway is a Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit (NRHO) near the Moon.2 The NRHO exists in a regime that experiences the gravitational effects of the Earth and the Moon simultaneously, complicating orbit analysis. The mission design process benefits greatly from updated computational tools for multibody missions like the Gateway. As an example, consider the problem of assessing the risk of collision in an NRHO. As a staging location to missions to the lunar surface and beyond the Earth-Moon system, the Gateway will experience spacecraft and other objects regularly arriving and departing. Departing objects potentially include spent logistics modules, visiting crew vehicles, debris objects, wastewater particles, and cubesats. Each departure is governed by the dynamics of the Gateway orbit and the surrounding dynamical environment. Over time, any unmaintained object in such an orbit eventually departs due to the small instabilities associated with the NRHOs. A separation maneuver speeds the departure from the NRHO, but the effects of the maneuver on the spacecraft behavior depend on the location, magnitude, and direction of the burn. Escape dynamics from the NRHO with regard to these maneuver options open up an enormous potential trajectory design space where subtle changes in input can produce dramatically large changes in the results. Any departing object must avoid recontacting the Gateway as it leaves the lunar vicinity, and a recontact analysis thus involves a significant number of computations and extensive output data. To explore the dynamics of this extensive design space, the Deep Space Trajectory Explorer3 (DSTE) trajectory design software incorporates new High Performance Computing (HPC) services and novel interactive visualizations. This paper details the HPC and cloud infrastructure techniques that are implemented in the DSTE, applying the new capabilities to analysis of recontact risk with the Gateway in NRHO. NEAR RECTILINEAR HALO ORBITS The Gateway is planned to fly in a lunar NRHO as its baseline orbit. The NRHO families of orbits are subsets of the larger halo families, which originate from planar orbits near the L1 and L2 libration points; the Earth-Moon L2 halo family appears in Figure 1. Each halo orbit is perfectly periodic in the Circular Restricted 3-Body Problem (CR3BP) and becomes a quasi-periodic orbit in a higher fidelity ephemeris force model. The NRHOs are defined as those members of the halo family with bounded stability properties;2 they pass near the Moon at perilune and are nearly polar. Families exist with apolunes located both above the lunar north pole and above the lunar south pole; the Gateway is planned to reside in a southern L2 NRHO in a 9:2 resonance with the lunar synodic period. The 9:2 NRHO is characterized by a period of about 6.5 days, a perilune radius of about 3,500 km, and an apolune radius of about 71,000 km; it is strongly affected by the gravity of both the Earth and the Moon simultaneously. This NRHO offers extended communications with assets on the south pole of the Moon,4 as well as low-cost orbit maintenance and attitude control,5 favorable eclipse avoidance properties,6 and inexpensive transfers from Earth and to other destinations.5,7 The NRHO portion of the southern L2 halo family is highlighted in black in Figure 1, and the 9:2 NRHO appears in blue.

Phillips, Sean M.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Dead-time effects in pulse-counting Digicon detectors

The Hubble Space Telescope's High Resolution Spectrograph employs two pulse-counting Digicon detectors to record UV spectra. At higher measured count rates, the intervals between photon arrivals become comparable to the response time of the electronics, so that not every pulse will be counted; this 'paired pulse' effect causes departures from linearity and must be corrected for during raw data reduction. Attention is given to two analytic equations that quantify the dead-time losses. The less attenuated spectra are noted to be severely distorted by these losses; a comparison with the undistorted low count rate data allows a detailed analysis to be made of the pulse-counting characteristics over five decades of input event rates. The present equations and calibration methods should be applicable to all kinds of multichannel pulse-counting detectors.

Ebbets, Dennis C.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Characteristics of Pool Boiling on Graphite-Copper Composite Surfaces

Nucleate pool boiling performance of different liquids on graphite-copper composite (Gr-Cu) surfaces has been experimentally studied and modeled. Both highly wetting fluids, such as freon-113 and pentane, and a moderately wetting fluid (water) were tested on the Gr-Cu surfaces with different graphite-fiber volume fractions to reveal the enhancement effects of the composite surfaces on the nucleate pool boiling. Results of the experiments show that the graphite-fiber volume fraction has an optimum value. The Gr-Cu composite surface with 25 percent graphite-fiber volume (f=0.25) has a maximum enhancement effect on the nucleate boiling heat transfer comparing to the pure copper surface. For the highly wetting fluid, the nucleate boiling heat transfer is generally enhanced on the Gr- Cu composite surfaces by 3 to 6 times shown. In the low heat flux region, the enhancement is over 6 times, but in the high heat flux region, the enhancement is reduced to about 40%. For the moderately wetting fluid (water), stronger enhancement of nucleate boiling heat transfer is achieved on the composite surface. It shown the experimental results in which one observes the nucleate boiling heat transfer enhancement of 5 to 10 times in the low heat flux region and an enhancement of 3 to 5 times in the high heat flux region. Photographs of bubble departure during the initial stage of nucleate boiling indicate that the bubbles detached from the composite surface are much smaller in diameter than those detached from the pure copper surface. Typical photographs are presented.It shows that the bubbles departed from the composite surface have diameters of only O(0.1) mm, while those departed from the pure copper surface have diameters of O(1) mm. It is also found that the bubbles depart from the composite surface at a much higher frequency, thus forming vapor columns. These two phenomena combined with high thermal conductivity of the graphite fiber are considered the mechanisms for such a significant augmentation in nucleate boiling heat transfer on the composite surfaces. A physical model is developed to describe the phenomenon of bubble departure from the composite surface: The preferred site of bubble nucleation is the fiber tip because of higher tip temperature than the surrounding copper base and poor wettability of the graphite tip compared with that of the base material (copper). The high evaporation rate near the contact line produces the vapor cutback due to the vapor recoil pushing the three-phase line outwards from the fiber tip, and so a neck of the bubble is formed near the bubble bottom. Evaporation and surface tension accelerate the necking process and finally result in the bubble departure while a new small bubble is formed at the tip when the surface tension pushes the three-phase line back to the tip. The process is schematically shown. The proposed model is based on and confirmed by experimental results.

Zhang, Nengli↗
NASA NTRS2011

Relaxing USOS Solar Array Constraints for Russian Vehicle Undocking

With the retirement of Space Shuttle cargo delivery capability and the ten year life extension of the International Space Station (ISS) more emphasis is being put on preservation of the service life of ISS critical components. Current restrictions on the United States Orbital Segment (USOS) Solar Array (SA) positioning during Russian Vehicle (RV) departure from ISS nadir and zenith ports cause SA to be positioned in the plume field of Service Module thrusters and lead to degradation of SAs as well as potential damage to Sun tracking Beta Gimbal Assemblies (BGA). These restrictions are imposed because of the single fault tolerant RV Motion Control System (MCS), which does not meet ISS Safety requirements for catastrophic hazards and dictates 16 degree Solar Array Rotary Joint position, which ensures that ISS and RV relative motion post separation, does lead to collision. The purpose of this paper is to describe a methodology and the analysis that was performed to determine relative motion trajectories of the ISS and separating RV for nominal and contingency cases. Analysis was performed in three phases that included ISS free drift prior to Visiting Vehicle separation, ISS and Visiting Vehicle relative motion analysis and clearance analysis. First, the ISS free drift analysis determined the worst case attitude and attitude rate excursions prior to RV separation based on a series of different configurations and mass properties. Next, the relative motion analysis calculated the separation trajectories while varying the initial conditions, such as docking mechanism performance, Visiting Vehicle MCS failure, departure port location, ISS attitude and attitude rates at the time of separation, etc. The analysis employed both orbital mechanics and rigid body rotation calculations while accounting for various atmospheric conditions and gravity gradient effects. The resulting relative motion trajectories were then used to determine the worst case separation envelopes during the clearance analysis. Analytical models were developed individually for each stage and the results were used to build initial conditions for the following stages. In addition to the analysis approach, this paper also discusses the analysis results, showing worst case relative motion envelopes, the recommendations for ISS appendage positioning and the suggested approach for future analyses.

Menkin, Evgeny↗
NASA NTRS2012

Cognitive Bias in the Verification and Validation of Space Flight Systems

Cognitive bias is generally recognized as playing a significant role in virtually all domains of human decision making. Insight into this role is informally built into many of the system engineering practices employed in the aerospace industry. The review process, for example, typically has features that help to counteract the effect of bias. This paper presents a discussion of how commonly recognized biases may affect the verification and validation process. Verifying and validating a system is arguably more challenging than development, both technically and cognitively. Whereas there may be a relatively limited number of options available for the design of a particular aspect of a system, there is a virtually unlimited number of potential verification scenarios that may be explored. The probability of any particular scenario occurring in operations is typically very difficult to estimate, which increases reliance on judgment that may be affected by bias. Implementing a verification activity often presents technical challenges that, if they can be overcome at all, often result in a departure from actual flight conditions (e.g., 1-g testing, simulation, time compression, artificial fault injection) that may raise additional questions about the meaningfulness of the results, and create opportunities for the introduction of additional biases. In addition to mitigating the biases it can introduce directly, the verification and validation process must also overcome the cumulative effect of biases introduced during all previous stages of development. A variety of cognitive biases will be described, with research results for illustration. A handful of case studies will be presented that show how cognitive bias may have affected the verification and validation process on recent JPL flight projects, identify areas of strength and weakness, and identify potential changes or additions to commonly used techniques that could provide a more robust verification and validation of future systems.

Larson, Steve↗